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Themes > Chapter: Winter Natural Gas Demand in New England >> Exhibit 1 of 12
New Contract Type May Help New England to Add Pipeline Capacity
Analysts: Syarifa Galeb & Vincent G Piazza
Jun 11, 2015
Close proximity to the Marcellus
and Utica shale plays has barely
solved New England's needs for
more supply of natural gas during
the heating season. In winter,
demand for power generation
competes with heating, and an
inability to move supply where
needed may result in expensive gas
and power prices. Challenges to
build new pipelines to serve power
generators include finding shippers
that will commit firm capacity. A new
type of contract used by Access
Northeast pipeline may help fulfill
power sector demand.
Key Points (5 of 12):
* Marcellus, Utica Set to Fulfill Rising Demand in New England
* New England Needs New Pipelines, Contracts Need for
Approvals
* Interruptible Capacity May Not Ensure Gas Supply in New
England
* Six Pipelines Will Ship More Gas to New England in Three Years
* Access Northeast Transports Gas for New England Power
Generators
Midstream - Oil & Gas Team
Bloomberg Intelligence

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Themes > Chapter: Winter Natural Gas Demand in New England >> Exhibit 2 of 12
Marcellus, Utica Set to Fulfill Rising Demand in New England
Analysts: Syarifa Galeb & Vincent G Piazza
Jun 10, 2015
Robust natural-gas production
from the Marcellus and Utica shale
plays is poised to supply rising
demand in gas-constrained New
England. The increasing demand
provides growth opportunities for
natural-gas producers such as
Range Resources, Cabot, EQT and
Antero, pipeline companies Kinder
Morgan and Spectra Energy, and
the utility companies. The region
may need as much as 1.1 billion
cubic feet a day of additional supply
to meet projected demand from the
power sector in 2020, according to
ICF International.
Appalachia Natural Gas Producers
Midstream - Oil & Gas Team For interactive exhibit on Bloomberg, run:
Bloomberg Intelligence BI NGASN COMT |2-2-Q-Value-14646|A12|#14646|USD|R586<GO>

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Themes > Chapter: Winter Natural Gas Demand in New England >> Exhibit 3 of 12
Scarce Pipe Capacity Challenges Stout Gas Demand in New England
Analysts: Vincent G Piazza & Syarifa Galeb
Jun 10, 2015
Low prices and environmental
concerns in New England are
boosting natural-gas demand for
power generation and conversions
from heating oil. Simultaneously,
abundant natural gas from
Appalachia has replaced pipeline
flows from Canada, the Gulf Coast
and the Rockies into the Northeast.
The region will be self-sufficient,
while also being able to supply gas
to other parts of the country. Moving
the robust natural-gas supply into
New England has been difficult due
to limited pipeline capacity.
Northeast Gas Production and Pipeline Flows (BCFD)
Midstream - Oil & Gas Team For interactive exhibit on Bloomberg, run:
Bloomberg Intelligence G BI2 818<GO>

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Themes > Chapter: Winter Natural Gas Demand in New England >> Exhibit 4 of 12
New England Pipelines Unable to Support Elevated Seasonal Demand
Analysts: Syarifa Galeb & Vincent G Piazza
Jun 10, 2015
Limited natural-gas pipeline
capacity has prohibited transporting
more supply to satisfy New
England's demand during winter,
causing electricity and gas prices to
spike. Gas demand in the region is
at its highest during winter, when the
need to fuel gas-fired power plants
is coupled with heating demand. In
the past five years, cheap supply
has boosted the conversions to
gas from oil for residential space
heating, while the replacement of oil,
coal and nuclear-power plants with
gas plants is ongoing.
Winter Gas Demand Trumps Electricity Generation
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Bloomberg Intelligence DOCC CF SD0000000-2080516796 P33<GO>

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Themes > Chapter: Winter Natural Gas Demand in New England >> Exhibit 5 of 12
New England Needs New Pipelines, Contracts Need for Approvals
Analysts: Syarifa Galeb & Vincent G Piazza
Jun 10, 2015
The construction of a new pipeline
can take place if pipeline companies
are able to provide evidence of
market need to regulators, in the
form of long-term firm capacity
contracts with shippers. In New
England, long-term arrangements
are usually signed by local gas
distribution companies, given that
state regulations allow the cost to
be spread to customers through gas
utility rates. When heating demand
is low, interruptible capacity,
or capacity without guaranteed
delivery, may be available for power
generators.
New England Natural Gas Pipelines & Power Plants
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Bloomberg Intelligence BMAP NEWS 83685<GO>

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Themes > Chapter: Winter Natural Gas Demand in New England >> Exhibit 6 of 12
Interruptible Capacity May Not Ensure Gas Supply in New England
Analysts: Syarifa Galeb & Vincent G Piazza
Jun 11, 2015
In a deregulated power market
such as New England, power
generators supply electricity to
electric distribution companies.
Generators are restricted from
passing along the cost of pipeline
capacity to customers. To secure
natural gas supply, generators may
purchase interruptible capacity
contracts, a cheaper option, in which
gas delivery is not guaranteed.
Some generators may buy firm-
capacity contracts, which have
guaranteed delivery. Gas plant
capacity in New England has risen
more than 10 gigawatts in 14 years.
New England Power Generating Capacity
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Themes > Chapter: Winter Natural Gas Demand in New England >> Exhibit 7 of 12
New Pipe Capacity Needed to Tame New England Gas, Power Prices
Analysts: Vincent G Piazza & Syarifa Galeb
Jun 11, 2015
Natural gas and electricity prices in
New England are tightly correlated,
with as much as half of the region's
electricity generated by gas. Limited
natural-gas supply may lead to high
gas and power prices. Additionally,
in a very cold winter, most of
pipeline capacity would be used
by gas distribution companies that
hold firm-capacity agreements,
leaving little capacity for power
generators. A lack of gas supply to
generate electricity will prompt a
switch to alternative fuels and lead
to expensive power prices.
Natural Gas and Power Prices in New England
Midstream - Oil & Gas Team For interactive exhibit on Bloomberg, run:
Bloomberg Intelligence G BI3 1359<GO>

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Themes > Chapter: Winter Natural Gas Demand in New England >> Exhibit 8 of 12
Coal and Oil May Rescue New England on Cold Winter Days
Analysts: Vincent G Piazza & Syarifa Galeb
Jun 11, 2015
Heating oil and coal may remain
alternative fuels for power
generation during extreme cold
winter days in New England, when
gas pipeline capacity is constrained.
Cheaper oil and ISO New England's
supply reliability program helped
contain power prices in the 2014-15
winter, yet this is only a temporary
solution. About 3.5 gigawatts will be
retired by 2018 and 6 GW will be at
risk of retirement by 2020, according
to ISO New England. Oil and coal
plants make up 10.8 GW of capacity
in the region.
New England Power Generation by Fuel (MWh)
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Bloomberg Intelligence G BI3 1460<GO>

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Themes > Chapter: Winter Natural Gas Demand in New England >> Exhibit 9 of 12
Higher Power, Gas Prices to Follow New England Plant Retirements
Analysts: Syarifa Galeb & Vincent G Piazza
Jun 11, 2015
Natural gas demand for power
generation in New England will
continue to rise due to the planned
retirement of coal, oil and nuclear
generators in the short-term. Most
of the replacement capacity will use
cheaper and cleaner gas as the
fuel of choice. Higher gas demand
will exacerbate New England's
scarce pipeline capacity, leading
to even more expensive gas and
power prices. About 4.6 gigawatts
capacity of oil, coal and nuclear
generators will be retired in New
England by 2018, out of 31 GW of
total capacity.
New England Power Generation Retirement Plan
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Themes > Chapter: Winter Natural Gas Demand in New England >> Exhibit 10 of 12
Six Pipelines Will Ship More Gas to New England in Three Years
Analysts: Syarifa Galeb & Vincent G Piazza
Jun 12, 2015
Cheaper gas supply from the
Marcellus and Utica shale plays is
expected to reach New England as
early as 2016 through Connecticut
Expansion and Algonquin
Incremental Market pipelines.
Access Northeast pipeline, planned
to be in service in 2018, will mostly
supply gas to power generators
with firm capacity agreements held
by electric utilities, as opposed to
contracts with local gas distribution
companies. The pipeline may save
electric customers about $1 billion
annually, according to an ICF
International report.
Proposed Natural Gas Pipelines in New England
Midstream - Oil & Gas Team
Bloomberg Intelligence

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Themes > Chapter: Winter Natural Gas Demand in New England >> Exhibit 11 of 12
Access Northeast Transports Gas for New England Power Generators
Analysts: Syarifa Galeb & Vincent G Piazza
Jun 11, 2015
Access Northeast pipeline,
owned by Spectra, Eversource
and National Grid, may help to
bring more gas supply to power
generators. Contrary to the usual
gas pipeline contracts, Access' firm
capacity agreements will be held by
electric utilities, and the cost to build
the pipeline will be spread across
electric customers. Generators will
secure capacity from the utilities
when supply is needed and pay for
what they use. These payments will
offset the rates paid by customers to
utilities.
Midstream - Oil & Gas Team For interactive exhibit on Bloomberg, run:
Bloomberg Intelligence HTTP 4179816<GO>

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Themes > Chapter: Winter Natural Gas Demand in New England >> Exhibit 12 of 12
More Natural Gas Supply May Lower New England Power Prices
Analysts: Vincent G Piazza & Syarifa Galeb
Jun 12, 2015
As natural gas is becoming the
primary fuel for electricity generation
in New England, creative solutions
such as a new type of pipeline
contract are needed to ship more
gas to power generators. Imminent
retirement of coal, oil and nuclear
power plants in the next five years
will require even more gas supply.
The firm capacity agreement
proposed by Access Northeast may
lead to other new types of contract
to bring new gas supply and may
eventually lower power prices in the
region.
New England Electricity Prices (Cents/kWh)
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Bloomberg Intelligence BI NETSN ELECP |1564-2-M|M12||USD<GO>