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NewBase 08 June 2015 - Issue No. 621 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
UAE: NDC signs contracts for AED2 billion to own 14 new rigs
WAM + NewBase
The National Drilling Company, NDC, has signed contracts to own 14 new rigs with a total value of
about US$543 million (AED2 billion).
The contracts were signed by Abdullah Saeed Al-Suwaidi, Chief Executive Officer of the Abu
Dhabi National Drilling Company and by the CEOs of the other companies.
In a press statement yesterday, Al-Suwaidi said that the contracts fall within the strategic
expansion plans being implemented by the company in response to the growing demand from
client companies and in order to raise the level of the readiness of the company, enabling it to
provide all drilling operations of various kinds efficiently.
He pointed out that, as per the signed agreements, offshore and onshore rigs worth AED745
million will be built in the UAE. The Lamprell Company will manufacture an offshore rig and the
contract was signed by James Moffat, Lamprell's Chief Executive Officer. An onshore rig will be
manufactured by the Oilwell Varco company, and that contract was signed by Majed Hamdan,
Vice-President of regional sales.
The remaining 12 rigs will be supplied by CBTDC, the China Building Technology Development
Centre, and that contract was signed by the company Vice-President
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Using treated water helps cut water footprint
Empower + NewBase
Emirates Central Cooling Systes Corporation (EMPOWER), the world’s largest district cooling
services provider, achieved savings of 194 million imperial gallons of fresh water in 2014, enough
to fill 354 Olympic swimming pools.
The achievement is in line with the directive of Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al
Maktoum, Crown Prince of Dubai, and Chairman of Dubai Executive Council, stipulating that
district cooling companies must opt for sea water, grey water or treated sewage effluents (TSE) as
opposed to desalinated water, and as part of preserving the water resources in Dubai and
synchronizing with the National Strategy for Sustainable Development.
Thus, the company has
succeeded in reducing
the consumption of fresh
water in their production
processes and is
working toward further
reductions, according to
Ahmad Bin Shafar, chief
executive officer of
Empower.
The reduced usage of
water was the result of
using TSE water
resources in cooling
operations. Moreover, as
a proactive step,
Empower switched to
TSE water in all other
older plants as part of
the strategic plan of
Dubai to save priceless
fresh water.
Empower said the achievement demonstrates the sustainability of District Cooling (DC),
synchronizing with the large initiatives launched by the Government of Dubai to reduce overall
water consumption. The company’s advanced technologies contributed to save its overall
consumption of potable water through the use of retreated water.
Bin Shafar added this has boosted Empower’s sustainability drive significantly while Dubai is
playing a remarkable role in environmental conservation.
“Under the directive and vision of the Government of Dubai and the UAE toward sustainable
practices, we have been able to achieve global excellence in adopting TSE water for DC services,
proving that DC is the ideal solution for meeting the demand for the chilling sector without
compromising on saving fresh water,” said Bin Shafar.
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Empower first began
transition from fresh water to
treated water in four plants - in
Dubai Healthcare City,
Jumeirah Beach Residence,
Dubai International Financial
Centre and Business Bay -
leading to significant water
saving. The effort was won the
first Innovation Award by
International District Energy
Association (IDEA), in 2013.
Empower also succeeded in
implementing a new system to
restore the cooling water used
in the refinery for reuse.
“The key advantage of DC is
that it is environment friendly. The use of treated wastewater enhances the environmental role of
this technology, compared to conventional methods,” said Bin Shafar.
Empower has recognized the issue of water efficiency and understands that these challenges
should be addressed as a top priority among public and private sectors around the world. The
company believes that it is everyone’s duty to reduce water consumption with the goal of lowering
fresh water consumption in the UAE and Dubai.
Empower currently operates more than 1 million RT, providing environmentally responsible district
cooling services to large-scale real estate developments such as Jumeirah Group, Business Bay,
Jumeirah Beach Residence, Dubai International Financial Centre, Palm Jumeirah, Jumeirah Lake
Towers, Ibn Battuta Mall, Discovery Gardens, Dubai Healthcare City, Dubai World trade Centre
Residences, Dubai Design District, among others.
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Oman’s first sugar refinery to start operation in the first quarter of 2018
Oman times
Oman's first sugar refinery will start operation in the first quarter of 2018, even as the promoters
have signed a $300 million engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) agreement with
China's Sinolight Corporation on Sunday to build the refinery at the Port of Sohar.
Construction work on the refinery
will start in the third quarter of this
year, said Ashwin D Rana, chief
executive officer of Oman Sugar
Refinery Company (OSRC).
The new sugar refinery, which will
have one million tonnes of
refined sugar per annum and is
coming up in an 18 hectare plot
near Sohar Port, will have state-of-
the-art, modern facility and will use
the latest production technology to
produce the highest quality refined
sugar. The contract will be
managed on behalf of OSRC by
Bosch Projects of South Africa.
Rana said that the capital expenditure of $300 million, which is also the value of EPC contract, will
be met by way of both equity and debt. An institutional investor from China will also partly fund the
project.
According to the plan, the company will import raw sugar, refine it using different processes and
the finished white sugar will be packed to sell it as a branded product. OSRC, which is using a
proven technology, has several advantages, including a strategic location and port facilities.
OSRC earlier signed agreements for natural gas and for the land for building the factory.
Rana said the total annual consumption of sugar in the Gulf and larger Mena region is estimated
at 14 million tonnes per annum, but the refining capacity is approximately nine million tonnes.
Therefore, there is a gap of 5 million tonnes every year, which is met by imports from other
countries.
"We are looking at selling 35 per cent of the company's production in the domestic market, 40 per
cent in GCC and remaining in Iran and Iraq," he noted talking about export strategy.
OSRC will create employment opportunities for 500 people once it starts operation and the initial
Omanisation level will be 25 per cent, which will eventually be raised to 92 per cent. This will
create employment for Omani citizens, diversify the economy of the country, create many
downstream opportunities and above all enhance food security in the country.
The signing ceremony was attended by China's ambassador to Oman Yu Fulong, chief executive
officer of Sohar Freezone Jamal Aziz, several senior officials from OSRC, Sohar port and
freezone and Chinese embassy in Muscat.
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Oman’s crude production grows 1.5 per cent in May
Oman's total oil and condensates production grew 1.53 per cent to 30.22 million barrels in May
compared to the previous month. The average daily production stood at around 974,990 barrels,
according to the monthly report released by the Ministry of Oil and Gas.
The report said that Oman's total crude oil exports in May increased by 3.73 per cent compared to
the preceding month and reached 25.41 million, registering a daily growth of 819,587 barrels.
Asian markets were the largest importers of Oman Crude.
For the second consecutive month, China's oil imports from the Sultanate reduced and showed a
fall of 4.99 per cent compared to April. Imports of Oman's oil by Thailand and Japan continued to
fall by 0.95% and 0.10% and 0.10 %, respectively, in May.
Oman’s natural gas output grows 5.5 per cent
Oman's natural gas production and imports rose 5.5 per cent to 12,402 million cubic metres
(MNCM) for the first four months of this year, from 11,750 MNCM for the same period last year. Of
this, while non-associated gas showed a growth of 7.6 per cent to 10,216MNCM, associated gas
production declined 3.1 per cent to 2,185MNCM, according to statistics released by the National
Centre for Statistics and Information (NCSI).
Industrial projects
A sizeable portion of the natural gas in Oman is used by various mega industrial projects, which
stood at 7,267MNCM for the first four months of 2015, against 6,946MNCM for the same period
last year. Natural gas is also used in oilfields either as fuel or for re-injection. For instance, in the
first four months, as much as 2,613 MNCM of natural gas was used in oil fields, against 2,406
MNCM units consumed for the same period in 2014.
The Sultanate's natural gas production this year is projected at 120 million cubic metres per day,
which is 15 million cubic metres higher than that of last year. Oman produced and imported
37,687 million cubic metres of natural gas last year (equivalent to 105 million cubic metres per day).
Oman’s gross domestic product registers 4.6 per cent growth in 2014
The Sultanate's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current prices increased 4.6 per cent during
2014, as compared to the 2.4 per cent growth registered the previous year.
While the nominal GDP emanating from the hydrocarbon sector registered a marginal decline of
2.4 per cent, that from non-hydrocarbon activities witnessed a growth of 10.1 per cent during the
year, according to the Central Bank of Oman (CBO) preliminary data on national accounts,
received by e-mail.
The balance of payments situation remained comfortable with both current account and overall
position in surplus. The annual inflation rate measured by the movement in the average CPI for
the Sultanate stood at 0.60 per cent from January to March 2015 over the corresponding period in
2014.
Total assets of commercial banks rose 9.3 per cent to OMR26.2 billion in March 2015 from
OMR24.0 billion a year ago.
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Cyprus gas field to produce 8 bcm a year with pipeline to Egypt
Source: Reuters
The Aphrodite natural gas field off Cyprus is commercially viable and plans call
for producing 8 billion cubic metres (bcm) a year and construction of a pipeline to
Egypt, the partners behind the project said on Sunday. Cyprus, which required an
international bailout in 2013, is hoping for an economic turnaround based partly on
offshore reserves.
Texas-based Noble Energy and Israel's Delek Group discovered the deposit,
estimated to hold 128 bcm of gas, in Cyprus's offshore Block 12 in 2011. It also
contains 9 million barrels of condensate. Plans call for a floating production storage
and offloading vessel (FPSO) to process 8 bcm of gas a year and the construction of
underwater pipelines connecting the well to Cyprus and Egypt, Delek said in a
statement.
The planned Egyptian exports were made possible by a cooperation agreement the
countries signed in February, Delek said, adding that the partners would submit their
plans to the Cypriot government in the near future.
Noble is the project operator with a 70 percent stake. Delek, through two
subsidiaries, holds the remaining 30 percent, but is in early-stage talks to buy an
additional 19.9 percent for about $155 million.
Cyprus is seeking to develop its energy sector to bolster an economy that relies
mostly on tourism, business services and shipping. The island has, for now, shelved
plans to create its own liquefied natural gas terminal.
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Tanzania Ups Gas Reserves to 55Tcf
Tanzania's current natural gas reserves have seen a significant increase in the past one year
following new offshore discoveries, Reuters news agency reported citing a statement by country’s
energy minister.
"As a result of ongoing exploration activity, natural gas resources discovered in the country rose
from 46.5 tcf in June 2014 to 55.08 tcf in April 2015, equivalent to an increase of 18 percent,"
George Simbachawene, Tanzania's energy and minerals minister, said in a presentation to
parliament on Saturday.
Tanzania in October raised its estimate of recoverable natural gas resources to up to 53.2
tcf,Reuters added. Simbachawene further stated that a pipeline connecting offshore natural gas
fields to Tanzania's commercial capital Dar es Salaam would be commissioned in September,
ahead of the energy ministry's previous estimates of November.
"The commercial operational date of gas processing plants and the pipeline has now been set at
September 2015," he said.
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China coal imports slump further in May as policies bite
Reuters + NewBase
China's coal imports slumped sharply in May as policies aimed at cutting imports of low-quality
grades and increasing the use of cleaner energy undermined industry expectations of a pick-up in
seasonal demand, data showed on Monday.
Total imports in the first five months of the year reached 83.26 million tonnes, down 38.2 percent
compared with the previous year, according to preliminary data from China's General
Administration of Customs.
May's imports of 14.25 million tonnes were down 28.6 percent on April, according to the data,
while Reuters calculations showed that imports were down 40.6 percent compared to May 2014.
Last week, major Chinese coal firms had raised their contract prices for the second time in a
month in anticipation of demand rising over the summer season.
But analysts said any upturn in coal purchases would be limited despite relatively low inventory
levels at thermal power plants, with hydropower likely to meet a large share of the increase in
power demand.
"Imports are constantly decreasing compared to last year due to new policies, and the use of new
(renewable) energy," said Zheng Nan, an analyst with China's Shenyin Wanguo Securities. The
import data includes lower-grade lignite, a type of coal with lower heating value that is largely
supplied by Indonesia.
In previous summers, southern coastal power plants would often turn to foreign markets because
of severe transportation bottlenecks, but weaker demand and improved rail capacity means that is
unlikely to be a factor this year.
Buyers last year enjoyed a 20 yuan ($3.22) per tonne discount if they bought coal from overseas,
but that price gap has now been reversed, said Zheng. "Domestic production is now cheaper than
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imported coal ... Some are transporting coal from Inner Mongolia instead because the cost of land
freight is cheap due to the cuts in oil prices," he said.
With domestic coal consumption expected to fall around 5 percent this year as a result of the
slowing economy, China has been trying to prop up prices by tackling oversupply. It has urged big
domestic producers to cut output and tightened quality inspections at ports with the aim of limiting
foreign supplies. Higher tariffs on low-grade imports has also helped stem the tide.
Benchmark 5,500 kcal/kg spot prices at the port of Qinhuangdao SH-QHA-TRMCOAL inched up 5
yuan ($0.80) to 415 yuan ($67.00) per tonne last week, but they remain 20 percent lower than at
the start of the year. ($1 = 6.2035 Chinese yuan) .
Indonesia to review coal mining licences in consolidation push
Indonesia will push for consolidation in its mining sector while coal prices are low and may soon
revoke more than 4,000 licences that have caused problems, mining and energy minister
Sudirman Said said on Monday.
Indonesia ships about
$2 billion of coal a
month and is the
world's top exporter of
thermal coal, but it
wants to keep more of
the fuel to feed
ballooning domestic
power demand. At the
same time, it wants to
squeeze more
revenue from the
sector.
"At the end of the day
it's about equilibrium,"
Said told a coal
conference in Bali,
noting Indonesia had
issued around 10,100
of the newer mining
licences known as
IUPs. "We enjoyed
huge profits that were
abnormal. Abnormal
money drives
abnormal behaviour,"
Said said, referring to the commodity boom.
According to the energy ministry, there were around 960 coal firms at production stage. Around
900 of these are IUP permit holders that contribute about 80 million tonnes, around 20 percent of
total output.
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"This month we will decide whether their permits will be revoked," Coal Enterprise Director Adhi
Wibowo said, referring to the 40 percent of IUPs with problems such as overlapping permits and
unpaid royalties.
The ministry plans to hand over licensing to the investment coordinating board (BKPM) this year,
he said. The review will only apply to the IUPs. Larger, older-generation firms with so-called
Contracts of Work such as Bumi Resources and Berau Coal Energy will be unaffected.
"This is the perfect time to consolidate," Said said, referring to depressed coal prices. "We will
create opportunities for players who are serious, who want to invest and who always comply with
government rules."
The Asian benchmark Newcastle coal index was at $60.32 a tonne for the week ended June 5,
down 10 percent this year and less than half of the post-2008 recession peak of $136.30 in
January 2011.
Indonesia will probably exempt low-grade coal from a planned increase in royalties paid by coal
miners, Said said. The government plans to build 35 gigawatts of new power stations by the end
of the decade and a further 35 gigawatts by 2025, although critics say that target is unlikely to be
met.
"Going up to 35 gigawatts is quite daunting," said Roleva Energy coal industry analyst Bart
Lucarelli. "What hasn't changed is the unrealistic schedule set by PLN and the energy ministry,"
he said, referring to state power utility Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) and a previous
programme to build 10,000 megawatts of new power plants, which faced long delays or never
materialised.
The plans could increase coal consumption from around 90 million tonnes a year at present to 250
million tonnes, Said said, and they may include pushing coal miners to build power stations. "(We)
will reach a new balance. The domestic market will be strong while the rest we can play with on
the export market, but that won't be the dominant market."
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US: Crude oil adjustment balances independently developed
supply and disposition components
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Petroleum Status Report
The crude oil adjustment is perhaps the most frequently misunderstood component of the U.S.
crude oil balance published in EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR). This adjustment
reflects the combined uncertainty around each of the crude oil data elements that EIA uses to
assess the balance between U.S. crude oil supply and its disposition.
Key weekly crude oil quantities are linked through the following balance relationship:
Domestic Production + Imports = Refinery Inputs + Exports + Stock Change,
with stock change defined as the difference between stock builds and stock draws. Each week,
EIA collects survey data for imports, refinery inputs, and stocks. Currently, EIA does not collect
weekly production or export data, so estimates are developed based on monthly data and
information regarding seasonal and industry trends.
The quality of these estimates can later be assessed by examining their relationship to monthly
data once it becomes available. The differences between weekly and monthly values after the
latter are obtained are typically quite small compared with the estimated production and export
volumes. For example, for the weekly crude oil production estimate, EIA's model is often within
1% of the monthly reported production data for volumes that now regularly exceed 9 million
barrels per day.
Despite the generally close correspondence between weekly production and exports estimates
and subsequent monthly data, EIA is seeking to further improve weekly data. A recent agreement
between EIA and the Department of Homeland Security's Customs and Border Protection will
provide EIA analysts with access to raw export data on a weekly basis, potentially enabling even
more accurate weekly crude oil export data.
Ideally the sum of the elements of the crude oil balance relationship, which are developed
independently, should balance perfectly. In practice, this is rarely the case, because timing
differences or other factors that contribute to survey responses may not precisely reflect actual
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crude oil import, storage, and refining activity for the week, or weekly estimates of crude oil
exports and production over- or under-estimate the actual values.
For this reason, EIA derives an adjustment equal to the sum of disposition items minus the sum of
supply items that may reflect, in part, potential imperfections in respondent reporting. Typically,
the adjustment is less than 2% of refinery crude oil inputs. Because this calculation can fluctuate
between positive and negative values, a four-week or eight-week average adjustment is often
even smaller than 2%.
Compared to the millions of barrels in the overall balance, the adjustment is quite small, and it
generally demonstrates a good match between the various components driving crude oil supply
and use.
Increases in U.S. crude oil production are predominantly light, sweet
U.S. crude oil production has grown rapidly in recent years, primarily from light, sweet crude (less
dense, lower sulfur content) from tight resource formations. Roughly 90% of the nearly 3.0 million
barrel per day (b/d) growth in production from 2011 to 2014 consisted of light, sweet grades,
meaning they have an API gravity of 40 or above and a sulphur content of 0.3% or less.
EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015) projects that U.S. supply of lighter API gravity
crude oil from formations in regions such as the Bakken, Permian Basin, and Eagle Ford
continues to outpace that of medium and heavier crudes.
Although the rate of growth in light sweet crude slows after 2015 in the Reference case, 56% of
EIA's projected production growth between 2014 and 2020 consists of sweet grades with an API
gravity of 40 or above. Another 33% of the growth is attributable to an increase in Lower 48 states
offshore production, which is categorized as medium sour with an API gravity between 27 and 35.
The pace and duration of projected crude oil production increases are uncertain, and these factors
are dependent on crude oil prices and the quality and amount of technically recoverable
resources. In the AEO2015 High Oil and Gas Resource and High Oil Price cases, the rate of
growth in tight oil production is higher than in the Reference case, as light, sweet crudes make up
an even greater portion of domestic crude oil resources.
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Oil Price Drop Special Coverage
Oil prices fall as Opec keeps output high
Crude oil prices fell on Monday as China's oil imports dropped sharply and markets were expected
to be increasingly oversupplied following Opec's decision to keep its production targets
unchanged.
China, the world's biggest net oil importer, bought nearly a quarter less crude in May than it did in
the previous month, according to data from China's General Administration of Customs. Its
imports of oil products also fell just over six per cent while product exports fell 10 per cent.
China's report of a fall in import demand came after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries (Opec) agreed on Friday to stick to its policy of not limiting its output, which currently
stands above 30 million barrels per day. Both exacerbate worries about a glut in a market where
millions of barrels of crude are stored in tankers without a buyer.
"The world's crude demand/supply remains in excess of supplies," said Yasushi Kimura, president
of the Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ) after Opec's decision.
"Opec projected a continuation of firm demand in global crude demand and judged there's no
need to change current production levels. The decision also may have come about reflecting the
view that Opec's lone production cuts would be offset by rising US shale oil production," he added.
Front-month Brent futures dropped 56 cents to $62.75 a barrel by 0313 GMT. US crude was at
$58.55 per barrel, down 58 cents.
Opec ministers said the group may even exceed the 30 million bpd target, especially if there is an
increase in production and exports from Libya, Iraq or Iran.
"We forecast that Saudi and other low-cost producers will continue to increase output as this is the
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next logical step to maximizing revenues in the face of shale oil's scalability," Goldman Sachs
said, adding that the global oil market would remain oversupplied in 2016 due to increased
production from Opec, Iraq and Russia.
Adding to the glut, analysts also expect US drilling to start increasing again in the second half of
this year following 26 weeks of declines.
Drilling fell after crude prices dropped to six-year lows in January, but a modest recovery and
reduced operating costs are allowing US drillers to operate at costs that would have been
previously unviable.
Opec unlikely to lose ‘oil influence to shale’
AFP + GulfNews + NewBase
Opec’s announcement that it is keeping crude output levels unchanged again, despite a collapse
in oil prices, reflects the growing influence of booming US shale but analysts say the group is still
the dominant player.
The 12-nation Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) switched its production
strategy in November in order to push down prices and hurt high-cost US shale producers, who
need elevated prices to make their operations profitable.
Opec ditched its traditional role of supporting higher prices to boost revenues, and instead left its
output ceiling unchanged at 30mn bpd - despite the collapsing oil market and a stubborn global
supply glut that is fuelled partly by US shale.
The policy was extended last Friday when producers from Africa, Latin America and the Middle
East decided to leave the taps open, sparking questions from some quarters about the increasing
influence of US shale on the oil market.
Opec’s dozen members pump a third of the world’s crude oil. “Opec members continue to play a
key role in the current conditions of the oil market,” said senior energy analyst Myrto Sokou at the
Sucden brokerage in London. “We cannot necessarily say that Opec is losing its price influence
on oil prices to the US shale production. Opec still has very significant influence over the current
crude oil prices.
“However, the US shale oil production continues to increase strongly during the last few months
and it is definitely something we need to keep an eye on in the near term.” The US has
significantly ramped up its production of oil extracted from hard-to-reach shale, or sedimentary
rock, now producing 5.0mn bpd, making the country far less dependent on imports from the crude-
rich Middle East.
But Capital Economics commodities analyst Thomas Pugh also downplayed talk that the US shale
boom could weaken Opec’s standing.
“I don’t think it’s fair to say that Opec is losing influence to the US,” Pugh told AFP. “Production in
the two regions is managed very differently. Opec can take strategic decisions to manage output
to manipulate prices, whereas US production is controlled by hundreds of small firms who manage
production based on market conditions.”
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He added: “Obviously Opec as a group still controls a much larger share of the market than the
US, but if the US could act as one oil producer, in the same way that the Gulf states do, it would
make it significantly more powerful.”
Fawad Razaqzada, technical analyst at trading website FOREX.com, conceded that Opec is less
powerful than it used to be, due in part to strong oil output in non-Opec member Russia, but it still
remained a “dominant force”.
“Opec is clearly in defence mode as it tries to maintain market share by pumping more oil than is
needed,” Razaqzada told AFP. “It is losing some influence to the US shale oil market and to a
lesser degree Russia, but it still remains a dominant force—just not as powerful as before
.”
Over the past five years, the US has enjoyed a shale oil and gas boom, revolutionising the global
energy sector but adding to the global glut that has plagued the market. That boom caught Opec
ministers by surprise, Iraq’s Oil Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi admitted in Vienna on Friday.
“We were two years late on evaluating shale oil, that’s why it came almost as a shock,” Abdel
Mahdi told reporters. “It should not have been a shock given that we knew they were working on
(extracting) shale oil.
Now this is the reality and we have to take it into consideration.” In recent years, Opec has
shrugged off talk that the US shale energy revolution would weaken the influence of the group but
ministers changed tack last week, arguing that it was a phenomenon that was to be welcomed as
part of the global energy landscape.
Plagued by demand worries and oversupply, the oil market collapsed 60% between June 2014 -
when West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude stood at about $106 per barrel—and late January,
when it hit a six-year low of under $45.
Prices have since recovered, but only to around $60, but analysts argue shale oil exploration is
still profitable at this level. “It has been a remarkable revolution in the US,” said Chevron chief
executive John Watson last week. “We are producing close to 5.0mn bpd that no one expected,
and shale oil will be a balancing mechanism to some degree over the next few years.”
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and
sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy
Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
Mobile: +97150-4822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in
the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for
Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy
consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE
operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations
Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility &
gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great
experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations
and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas
transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local
authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE
and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.
NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
NewBase 08 June 2015 K. Al Awadi
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17

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NewBase 621 special 08 June 2015

  • 1. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase 08 June 2015 - Issue No. 621 Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE UAE: NDC signs contracts for AED2 billion to own 14 new rigs WAM + NewBase The National Drilling Company, NDC, has signed contracts to own 14 new rigs with a total value of about US$543 million (AED2 billion). The contracts were signed by Abdullah Saeed Al-Suwaidi, Chief Executive Officer of the Abu Dhabi National Drilling Company and by the CEOs of the other companies. In a press statement yesterday, Al-Suwaidi said that the contracts fall within the strategic expansion plans being implemented by the company in response to the growing demand from client companies and in order to raise the level of the readiness of the company, enabling it to provide all drilling operations of various kinds efficiently. He pointed out that, as per the signed agreements, offshore and onshore rigs worth AED745 million will be built in the UAE. The Lamprell Company will manufacture an offshore rig and the contract was signed by James Moffat, Lamprell's Chief Executive Officer. An onshore rig will be manufactured by the Oilwell Varco company, and that contract was signed by Majed Hamdan, Vice-President of regional sales. The remaining 12 rigs will be supplied by CBTDC, the China Building Technology Development Centre, and that contract was signed by the company Vice-President
  • 2. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2 Using treated water helps cut water footprint Empower + NewBase Emirates Central Cooling Systes Corporation (EMPOWER), the world’s largest district cooling services provider, achieved savings of 194 million imperial gallons of fresh water in 2014, enough to fill 354 Olympic swimming pools. The achievement is in line with the directive of Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Crown Prince of Dubai, and Chairman of Dubai Executive Council, stipulating that district cooling companies must opt for sea water, grey water or treated sewage effluents (TSE) as opposed to desalinated water, and as part of preserving the water resources in Dubai and synchronizing with the National Strategy for Sustainable Development. Thus, the company has succeeded in reducing the consumption of fresh water in their production processes and is working toward further reductions, according to Ahmad Bin Shafar, chief executive officer of Empower. The reduced usage of water was the result of using TSE water resources in cooling operations. Moreover, as a proactive step, Empower switched to TSE water in all other older plants as part of the strategic plan of Dubai to save priceless fresh water. Empower said the achievement demonstrates the sustainability of District Cooling (DC), synchronizing with the large initiatives launched by the Government of Dubai to reduce overall water consumption. The company’s advanced technologies contributed to save its overall consumption of potable water through the use of retreated water. Bin Shafar added this has boosted Empower’s sustainability drive significantly while Dubai is playing a remarkable role in environmental conservation. “Under the directive and vision of the Government of Dubai and the UAE toward sustainable practices, we have been able to achieve global excellence in adopting TSE water for DC services, proving that DC is the ideal solution for meeting the demand for the chilling sector without compromising on saving fresh water,” said Bin Shafar.
  • 3. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3 Empower first began transition from fresh water to treated water in four plants - in Dubai Healthcare City, Jumeirah Beach Residence, Dubai International Financial Centre and Business Bay - leading to significant water saving. The effort was won the first Innovation Award by International District Energy Association (IDEA), in 2013. Empower also succeeded in implementing a new system to restore the cooling water used in the refinery for reuse. “The key advantage of DC is that it is environment friendly. The use of treated wastewater enhances the environmental role of this technology, compared to conventional methods,” said Bin Shafar. Empower has recognized the issue of water efficiency and understands that these challenges should be addressed as a top priority among public and private sectors around the world. The company believes that it is everyone’s duty to reduce water consumption with the goal of lowering fresh water consumption in the UAE and Dubai. Empower currently operates more than 1 million RT, providing environmentally responsible district cooling services to large-scale real estate developments such as Jumeirah Group, Business Bay, Jumeirah Beach Residence, Dubai International Financial Centre, Palm Jumeirah, Jumeirah Lake Towers, Ibn Battuta Mall, Discovery Gardens, Dubai Healthcare City, Dubai World trade Centre Residences, Dubai Design District, among others.
  • 4. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4 Oman’s first sugar refinery to start operation in the first quarter of 2018 Oman times Oman's first sugar refinery will start operation in the first quarter of 2018, even as the promoters have signed a $300 million engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) agreement with China's Sinolight Corporation on Sunday to build the refinery at the Port of Sohar. Construction work on the refinery will start in the third quarter of this year, said Ashwin D Rana, chief executive officer of Oman Sugar Refinery Company (OSRC). The new sugar refinery, which will have one million tonnes of refined sugar per annum and is coming up in an 18 hectare plot near Sohar Port, will have state-of- the-art, modern facility and will use the latest production technology to produce the highest quality refined sugar. The contract will be managed on behalf of OSRC by Bosch Projects of South Africa. Rana said that the capital expenditure of $300 million, which is also the value of EPC contract, will be met by way of both equity and debt. An institutional investor from China will also partly fund the project. According to the plan, the company will import raw sugar, refine it using different processes and the finished white sugar will be packed to sell it as a branded product. OSRC, which is using a proven technology, has several advantages, including a strategic location and port facilities. OSRC earlier signed agreements for natural gas and for the land for building the factory. Rana said the total annual consumption of sugar in the Gulf and larger Mena region is estimated at 14 million tonnes per annum, but the refining capacity is approximately nine million tonnes. Therefore, there is a gap of 5 million tonnes every year, which is met by imports from other countries. "We are looking at selling 35 per cent of the company's production in the domestic market, 40 per cent in GCC and remaining in Iran and Iraq," he noted talking about export strategy. OSRC will create employment opportunities for 500 people once it starts operation and the initial Omanisation level will be 25 per cent, which will eventually be raised to 92 per cent. This will create employment for Omani citizens, diversify the economy of the country, create many downstream opportunities and above all enhance food security in the country. The signing ceremony was attended by China's ambassador to Oman Yu Fulong, chief executive officer of Sohar Freezone Jamal Aziz, several senior officials from OSRC, Sohar port and freezone and Chinese embassy in Muscat.
  • 5. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5 Oman’s crude production grows 1.5 per cent in May Oman's total oil and condensates production grew 1.53 per cent to 30.22 million barrels in May compared to the previous month. The average daily production stood at around 974,990 barrels, according to the monthly report released by the Ministry of Oil and Gas. The report said that Oman's total crude oil exports in May increased by 3.73 per cent compared to the preceding month and reached 25.41 million, registering a daily growth of 819,587 barrels. Asian markets were the largest importers of Oman Crude. For the second consecutive month, China's oil imports from the Sultanate reduced and showed a fall of 4.99 per cent compared to April. Imports of Oman's oil by Thailand and Japan continued to fall by 0.95% and 0.10% and 0.10 %, respectively, in May. Oman’s natural gas output grows 5.5 per cent Oman's natural gas production and imports rose 5.5 per cent to 12,402 million cubic metres (MNCM) for the first four months of this year, from 11,750 MNCM for the same period last year. Of this, while non-associated gas showed a growth of 7.6 per cent to 10,216MNCM, associated gas production declined 3.1 per cent to 2,185MNCM, according to statistics released by the National Centre for Statistics and Information (NCSI). Industrial projects A sizeable portion of the natural gas in Oman is used by various mega industrial projects, which stood at 7,267MNCM for the first four months of 2015, against 6,946MNCM for the same period last year. Natural gas is also used in oilfields either as fuel or for re-injection. For instance, in the first four months, as much as 2,613 MNCM of natural gas was used in oil fields, against 2,406 MNCM units consumed for the same period in 2014. The Sultanate's natural gas production this year is projected at 120 million cubic metres per day, which is 15 million cubic metres higher than that of last year. Oman produced and imported 37,687 million cubic metres of natural gas last year (equivalent to 105 million cubic metres per day). Oman’s gross domestic product registers 4.6 per cent growth in 2014 The Sultanate's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current prices increased 4.6 per cent during 2014, as compared to the 2.4 per cent growth registered the previous year. While the nominal GDP emanating from the hydrocarbon sector registered a marginal decline of 2.4 per cent, that from non-hydrocarbon activities witnessed a growth of 10.1 per cent during the year, according to the Central Bank of Oman (CBO) preliminary data on national accounts, received by e-mail. The balance of payments situation remained comfortable with both current account and overall position in surplus. The annual inflation rate measured by the movement in the average CPI for the Sultanate stood at 0.60 per cent from January to March 2015 over the corresponding period in 2014. Total assets of commercial banks rose 9.3 per cent to OMR26.2 billion in March 2015 from OMR24.0 billion a year ago.
  • 6. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6 Cyprus gas field to produce 8 bcm a year with pipeline to Egypt Source: Reuters The Aphrodite natural gas field off Cyprus is commercially viable and plans call for producing 8 billion cubic metres (bcm) a year and construction of a pipeline to Egypt, the partners behind the project said on Sunday. Cyprus, which required an international bailout in 2013, is hoping for an economic turnaround based partly on offshore reserves. Texas-based Noble Energy and Israel's Delek Group discovered the deposit, estimated to hold 128 bcm of gas, in Cyprus's offshore Block 12 in 2011. It also contains 9 million barrels of condensate. Plans call for a floating production storage and offloading vessel (FPSO) to process 8 bcm of gas a year and the construction of underwater pipelines connecting the well to Cyprus and Egypt, Delek said in a statement. The planned Egyptian exports were made possible by a cooperation agreement the countries signed in February, Delek said, adding that the partners would submit their plans to the Cypriot government in the near future. Noble is the project operator with a 70 percent stake. Delek, through two subsidiaries, holds the remaining 30 percent, but is in early-stage talks to buy an additional 19.9 percent for about $155 million. Cyprus is seeking to develop its energy sector to bolster an economy that relies mostly on tourism, business services and shipping. The island has, for now, shelved plans to create its own liquefied natural gas terminal.
  • 7. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7 Tanzania Ups Gas Reserves to 55Tcf Tanzania's current natural gas reserves have seen a significant increase in the past one year following new offshore discoveries, Reuters news agency reported citing a statement by country’s energy minister. "As a result of ongoing exploration activity, natural gas resources discovered in the country rose from 46.5 tcf in June 2014 to 55.08 tcf in April 2015, equivalent to an increase of 18 percent," George Simbachawene, Tanzania's energy and minerals minister, said in a presentation to parliament on Saturday. Tanzania in October raised its estimate of recoverable natural gas resources to up to 53.2 tcf,Reuters added. Simbachawene further stated that a pipeline connecting offshore natural gas fields to Tanzania's commercial capital Dar es Salaam would be commissioned in September, ahead of the energy ministry's previous estimates of November. "The commercial operational date of gas processing plants and the pipeline has now been set at September 2015," he said.
  • 8. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 8 China coal imports slump further in May as policies bite Reuters + NewBase China's coal imports slumped sharply in May as policies aimed at cutting imports of low-quality grades and increasing the use of cleaner energy undermined industry expectations of a pick-up in seasonal demand, data showed on Monday. Total imports in the first five months of the year reached 83.26 million tonnes, down 38.2 percent compared with the previous year, according to preliminary data from China's General Administration of Customs. May's imports of 14.25 million tonnes were down 28.6 percent on April, according to the data, while Reuters calculations showed that imports were down 40.6 percent compared to May 2014. Last week, major Chinese coal firms had raised their contract prices for the second time in a month in anticipation of demand rising over the summer season. But analysts said any upturn in coal purchases would be limited despite relatively low inventory levels at thermal power plants, with hydropower likely to meet a large share of the increase in power demand. "Imports are constantly decreasing compared to last year due to new policies, and the use of new (renewable) energy," said Zheng Nan, an analyst with China's Shenyin Wanguo Securities. The import data includes lower-grade lignite, a type of coal with lower heating value that is largely supplied by Indonesia. In previous summers, southern coastal power plants would often turn to foreign markets because of severe transportation bottlenecks, but weaker demand and improved rail capacity means that is unlikely to be a factor this year. Buyers last year enjoyed a 20 yuan ($3.22) per tonne discount if they bought coal from overseas, but that price gap has now been reversed, said Zheng. "Domestic production is now cheaper than
  • 9. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9 imported coal ... Some are transporting coal from Inner Mongolia instead because the cost of land freight is cheap due to the cuts in oil prices," he said. With domestic coal consumption expected to fall around 5 percent this year as a result of the slowing economy, China has been trying to prop up prices by tackling oversupply. It has urged big domestic producers to cut output and tightened quality inspections at ports with the aim of limiting foreign supplies. Higher tariffs on low-grade imports has also helped stem the tide. Benchmark 5,500 kcal/kg spot prices at the port of Qinhuangdao SH-QHA-TRMCOAL inched up 5 yuan ($0.80) to 415 yuan ($67.00) per tonne last week, but they remain 20 percent lower than at the start of the year. ($1 = 6.2035 Chinese yuan) . Indonesia to review coal mining licences in consolidation push Indonesia will push for consolidation in its mining sector while coal prices are low and may soon revoke more than 4,000 licences that have caused problems, mining and energy minister Sudirman Said said on Monday. Indonesia ships about $2 billion of coal a month and is the world's top exporter of thermal coal, but it wants to keep more of the fuel to feed ballooning domestic power demand. At the same time, it wants to squeeze more revenue from the sector. "At the end of the day it's about equilibrium," Said told a coal conference in Bali, noting Indonesia had issued around 10,100 of the newer mining licences known as IUPs. "We enjoyed huge profits that were abnormal. Abnormal money drives abnormal behaviour," Said said, referring to the commodity boom. According to the energy ministry, there were around 960 coal firms at production stage. Around 900 of these are IUP permit holders that contribute about 80 million tonnes, around 20 percent of total output.
  • 10. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 10 "This month we will decide whether their permits will be revoked," Coal Enterprise Director Adhi Wibowo said, referring to the 40 percent of IUPs with problems such as overlapping permits and unpaid royalties. The ministry plans to hand over licensing to the investment coordinating board (BKPM) this year, he said. The review will only apply to the IUPs. Larger, older-generation firms with so-called Contracts of Work such as Bumi Resources and Berau Coal Energy will be unaffected. "This is the perfect time to consolidate," Said said, referring to depressed coal prices. "We will create opportunities for players who are serious, who want to invest and who always comply with government rules." The Asian benchmark Newcastle coal index was at $60.32 a tonne for the week ended June 5, down 10 percent this year and less than half of the post-2008 recession peak of $136.30 in January 2011. Indonesia will probably exempt low-grade coal from a planned increase in royalties paid by coal miners, Said said. The government plans to build 35 gigawatts of new power stations by the end of the decade and a further 35 gigawatts by 2025, although critics say that target is unlikely to be met. "Going up to 35 gigawatts is quite daunting," said Roleva Energy coal industry analyst Bart Lucarelli. "What hasn't changed is the unrealistic schedule set by PLN and the energy ministry," he said, referring to state power utility Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) and a previous programme to build 10,000 megawatts of new power plants, which faced long delays or never materialised. The plans could increase coal consumption from around 90 million tonnes a year at present to 250 million tonnes, Said said, and they may include pushing coal miners to build power stations. "(We) will reach a new balance. The domestic market will be strong while the rest we can play with on the export market, but that won't be the dominant market."
  • 11. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 11 US: Crude oil adjustment balances independently developed supply and disposition components Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Petroleum Status Report The crude oil adjustment is perhaps the most frequently misunderstood component of the U.S. crude oil balance published in EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR). This adjustment reflects the combined uncertainty around each of the crude oil data elements that EIA uses to assess the balance between U.S. crude oil supply and its disposition. Key weekly crude oil quantities are linked through the following balance relationship: Domestic Production + Imports = Refinery Inputs + Exports + Stock Change, with stock change defined as the difference between stock builds and stock draws. Each week, EIA collects survey data for imports, refinery inputs, and stocks. Currently, EIA does not collect weekly production or export data, so estimates are developed based on monthly data and information regarding seasonal and industry trends. The quality of these estimates can later be assessed by examining their relationship to monthly data once it becomes available. The differences between weekly and monthly values after the latter are obtained are typically quite small compared with the estimated production and export volumes. For example, for the weekly crude oil production estimate, EIA's model is often within 1% of the monthly reported production data for volumes that now regularly exceed 9 million barrels per day. Despite the generally close correspondence between weekly production and exports estimates and subsequent monthly data, EIA is seeking to further improve weekly data. A recent agreement between EIA and the Department of Homeland Security's Customs and Border Protection will provide EIA analysts with access to raw export data on a weekly basis, potentially enabling even more accurate weekly crude oil export data. Ideally the sum of the elements of the crude oil balance relationship, which are developed independently, should balance perfectly. In practice, this is rarely the case, because timing differences or other factors that contribute to survey responses may not precisely reflect actual
  • 12. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 12 crude oil import, storage, and refining activity for the week, or weekly estimates of crude oil exports and production over- or under-estimate the actual values. For this reason, EIA derives an adjustment equal to the sum of disposition items minus the sum of supply items that may reflect, in part, potential imperfections in respondent reporting. Typically, the adjustment is less than 2% of refinery crude oil inputs. Because this calculation can fluctuate between positive and negative values, a four-week or eight-week average adjustment is often even smaller than 2%. Compared to the millions of barrels in the overall balance, the adjustment is quite small, and it generally demonstrates a good match between the various components driving crude oil supply and use. Increases in U.S. crude oil production are predominantly light, sweet U.S. crude oil production has grown rapidly in recent years, primarily from light, sweet crude (less dense, lower sulfur content) from tight resource formations. Roughly 90% of the nearly 3.0 million barrel per day (b/d) growth in production from 2011 to 2014 consisted of light, sweet grades, meaning they have an API gravity of 40 or above and a sulphur content of 0.3% or less. EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015) projects that U.S. supply of lighter API gravity crude oil from formations in regions such as the Bakken, Permian Basin, and Eagle Ford continues to outpace that of medium and heavier crudes. Although the rate of growth in light sweet crude slows after 2015 in the Reference case, 56% of EIA's projected production growth between 2014 and 2020 consists of sweet grades with an API gravity of 40 or above. Another 33% of the growth is attributable to an increase in Lower 48 states offshore production, which is categorized as medium sour with an API gravity between 27 and 35. The pace and duration of projected crude oil production increases are uncertain, and these factors are dependent on crude oil prices and the quality and amount of technically recoverable resources. In the AEO2015 High Oil and Gas Resource and High Oil Price cases, the rate of growth in tight oil production is higher than in the Reference case, as light, sweet crudes make up an even greater portion of domestic crude oil resources.
  • 13. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 13 Oil Price Drop Special Coverage Oil prices fall as Opec keeps output high Crude oil prices fell on Monday as China's oil imports dropped sharply and markets were expected to be increasingly oversupplied following Opec's decision to keep its production targets unchanged. China, the world's biggest net oil importer, bought nearly a quarter less crude in May than it did in the previous month, according to data from China's General Administration of Customs. Its imports of oil products also fell just over six per cent while product exports fell 10 per cent. China's report of a fall in import demand came after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) agreed on Friday to stick to its policy of not limiting its output, which currently stands above 30 million barrels per day. Both exacerbate worries about a glut in a market where millions of barrels of crude are stored in tankers without a buyer. "The world's crude demand/supply remains in excess of supplies," said Yasushi Kimura, president of the Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ) after Opec's decision. "Opec projected a continuation of firm demand in global crude demand and judged there's no need to change current production levels. The decision also may have come about reflecting the view that Opec's lone production cuts would be offset by rising US shale oil production," he added. Front-month Brent futures dropped 56 cents to $62.75 a barrel by 0313 GMT. US crude was at $58.55 per barrel, down 58 cents. Opec ministers said the group may even exceed the 30 million bpd target, especially if there is an increase in production and exports from Libya, Iraq or Iran. "We forecast that Saudi and other low-cost producers will continue to increase output as this is the
  • 14. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 14 next logical step to maximizing revenues in the face of shale oil's scalability," Goldman Sachs said, adding that the global oil market would remain oversupplied in 2016 due to increased production from Opec, Iraq and Russia. Adding to the glut, analysts also expect US drilling to start increasing again in the second half of this year following 26 weeks of declines. Drilling fell after crude prices dropped to six-year lows in January, but a modest recovery and reduced operating costs are allowing US drillers to operate at costs that would have been previously unviable. Opec unlikely to lose ‘oil influence to shale’ AFP + GulfNews + NewBase Opec’s announcement that it is keeping crude output levels unchanged again, despite a collapse in oil prices, reflects the growing influence of booming US shale but analysts say the group is still the dominant player. The 12-nation Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) switched its production strategy in November in order to push down prices and hurt high-cost US shale producers, who need elevated prices to make their operations profitable. Opec ditched its traditional role of supporting higher prices to boost revenues, and instead left its output ceiling unchanged at 30mn bpd - despite the collapsing oil market and a stubborn global supply glut that is fuelled partly by US shale. The policy was extended last Friday when producers from Africa, Latin America and the Middle East decided to leave the taps open, sparking questions from some quarters about the increasing influence of US shale on the oil market. Opec’s dozen members pump a third of the world’s crude oil. “Opec members continue to play a key role in the current conditions of the oil market,” said senior energy analyst Myrto Sokou at the Sucden brokerage in London. “We cannot necessarily say that Opec is losing its price influence on oil prices to the US shale production. Opec still has very significant influence over the current crude oil prices. “However, the US shale oil production continues to increase strongly during the last few months and it is definitely something we need to keep an eye on in the near term.” The US has significantly ramped up its production of oil extracted from hard-to-reach shale, or sedimentary rock, now producing 5.0mn bpd, making the country far less dependent on imports from the crude- rich Middle East. But Capital Economics commodities analyst Thomas Pugh also downplayed talk that the US shale boom could weaken Opec’s standing. “I don’t think it’s fair to say that Opec is losing influence to the US,” Pugh told AFP. “Production in the two regions is managed very differently. Opec can take strategic decisions to manage output to manipulate prices, whereas US production is controlled by hundreds of small firms who manage production based on market conditions.”
  • 15. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 15 He added: “Obviously Opec as a group still controls a much larger share of the market than the US, but if the US could act as one oil producer, in the same way that the Gulf states do, it would make it significantly more powerful.” Fawad Razaqzada, technical analyst at trading website FOREX.com, conceded that Opec is less powerful than it used to be, due in part to strong oil output in non-Opec member Russia, but it still remained a “dominant force”. “Opec is clearly in defence mode as it tries to maintain market share by pumping more oil than is needed,” Razaqzada told AFP. “It is losing some influence to the US shale oil market and to a lesser degree Russia, but it still remains a dominant force—just not as powerful as before .” Over the past five years, the US has enjoyed a shale oil and gas boom, revolutionising the global energy sector but adding to the global glut that has plagued the market. That boom caught Opec ministers by surprise, Iraq’s Oil Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi admitted in Vienna on Friday. “We were two years late on evaluating shale oil, that’s why it came almost as a shock,” Abdel Mahdi told reporters. “It should not have been a shock given that we knew they were working on (extracting) shale oil. Now this is the reality and we have to take it into consideration.” In recent years, Opec has shrugged off talk that the US shale energy revolution would weaken the influence of the group but ministers changed tack last week, arguing that it was a phenomenon that was to be welcomed as part of the global energy landscape. Plagued by demand worries and oversupply, the oil market collapsed 60% between June 2014 - when West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude stood at about $106 per barrel—and late January, when it hit a six-year low of under $45. Prices have since recovered, but only to around $60, but analysts argue shale oil exploration is still profitable at this level. “It has been a remarkable revolution in the US,” said Chevron chief executive John Watson last week. “We are producing close to 5.0mn bpd that no one expected, and shale oil will be a balancing mechanism to some degree over the next few years.”
  • 16. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16 NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE Your partner in Energy Services NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE. For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010 Mobile: +97150-4822502 khdmohd@hawkenergy.net khdmohd@hotmail.com Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE NewBase 08 June 2015 K. Al Awadi
  • 17. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17