Slides for presentation New Directions in Structured Thinking for Intelligence Analysis at the Joint Australian Associations’ Security and Intelligence Seminar Program Signposts for a Security Road Map

1. New Directions in Structured Thinking for Intelligence Analysis Dr. Tim van Gelder Principal, Austhink [email_address]

3. Trend 1: Use of Visualisation

4. Trend 2: Focus on higher-level cognitive processes Bloom's Taxonomy of Cognitive Processes Attention is moving up the value hierarchy

6. Convergence One point of convergence of these three trends is a family of “mapping” techniques

7. Link Analysis Link analysis supports a mid-level cognitive process with sophisticated visualisation tools (e.g. Analyst's Notebook) But so what?

8. Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) A structured analytical technique for a high-level cognitive process (hypothesis testing) using rudimentary visualisation From Heuer, Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

10. Hypothesis Mapping Hierarchical hypothesis sets

11. Hypothesis Mapping Subordinate argumentation

12. Hypothesis Mapping Co-premises (critical assumptions)

13. An emerging hypothesis map

14. bCisive 2 Software for rapid assembly, modification and sharing of hypothesis maps, argument maps and decision maps

15. Future Trend From To ACH Hypothesis Mapping

17. New Directions in Structured Thinking for Intelligence Analysis Dr. Tim van Gelder Principal, Austhink [email_address]