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NewBase Energy News 11 September 2020 - Issue No. 1372 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
U.A.E: Adnoc awards $245m deals to upgrade main oil lines
WAM + NewBase
Adnoc Onshore, a subsidiary of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc), has awarded two
Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) contracts to upgrade two main oil lines (MOLs)
and crude receiving facilities at the Jebel Dhanna Terminal in Abu Dhabi.
The EPC contracts have a combined value of around $245 million (AED899.9 million) and were
awarded to China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering Company Limited – Abu Dhabi and Abu Dhabi-
based Target Engineering Construction.
Over 50 percent of the total award value will flow back into the UAE’s economy under Adnoc’s In-
Country Value (ICV) program, underscoring Adnoc’s drive to prioritize ICV as it invests responsibly
and pursues smart growth to maximize value from its assets and deliver sustainable returns to the UAE.
Yaser Saeed Almazrouei, Executive Director of Adnoc’s Upstream Directorate, said: “The EPC
contracts awarded by Adnoc Onshore will increase the capacity of the two main oil lines and
upgrade the Jebel Dhanna Terminal to enable it to receive Upper Zakum and Non-System crude
for delivery to the Ruwais Refinery West project.
“The awards follow a very competitive tender process and highlight how Adnoc is making smart
investments to optimize performance and unlock greater value from our assets. Crucially, a
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significant portion of the awards will flow back into the UAE’s economy under Adnoc’s ICV program,
reinforcing our commitment to maximize value for the nation as we create a more profitable
upstream business and deliver our 2030 strategy.”
The EPC contract awarded to China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering– Abu Dhabi is valued at
approximately $135 million and the scope is to replace the two MOLs which transport Adnoc’s
premium grade Murban crude oil from its oilfields at Bab (BAB), Bu Hasa (BUH), North East Bab
(NEB), and South East (SE) to Jebel Dhanna terminal, increasing the capacity of the pipelines by
over 30 percent.
The contract is expected to be completed in 30 months and will see over 45 percent of the award
value flow back into the UAE’s economy under Adnoc’s ICV program.
The EPC contract awarded to Target Engineering Construction is valued at approximately $110
million and will see the contractor upgrade the crude receiving facilities at the Jebel Dhanna
Terminal, enabling Adnoc to utilize parts of the terminal’s existing facilities to import Upper Zakum
(UZ) crude oil from offshore and Non-System (NS) crude, for delivery to the new Ruwais Refinery
West (RRW) project, located approximately 12 km to the east of Jebel Dhanna terminal.
This ability to import other grades of crude at Jebel Dhanna following the completion of the project
will provide Adnoc greater flexibility, highlighting how the company is extracting value from every
barrel of crude it produces. The terminal was originally conceived and operated as a Murban crude
oil export facility since its inception in the 1960s.
The contract is expected to be completed in 20 months and will see over 60 percent of the award
value to Target Engineering flow back into the UAE’s economy under Adnoc’s ICV programme.
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UAE and South Korea forge deals to co-operate in 10 new sectors
The National + NewBase
The UAE and South Korea signed agreements to co-operate in ten new sectors including science,
oil and gas and infrastructure over the next two years. Non-oil trade with South Korea, a key importer
of hydrocarbons from the Middle East, reached $5 billion (Dh18.3bn) in 2019.
Both countries will explore joint investments in small and medium-sized enterprises, communication,
information technology, artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, 5G technology, smart
agriculture, green economy, energy, including renewables, science and innovation, education,
tourism, financial services and transportation.
The UAE is keen "to establish frameworks for cooperation in the fields of technology to benefit from
the world-leading Korean experience,” said economy minister Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri. He was
speaking at the seventh UAE-South Korea Joint Economic Committee, which was held virtually.
“We are focusing on the advanced technology sectors in particular, so that the UAE and Korean
economies can progress and work together through joint investment in the fields of innovation,
research and development, to reach the commercial production in the sectors of the new economy,”
he added.
The UAE established bilateral diplomatic ties with South Korea in 1980. The country is the UAE’s
fifth-largest trading partner from the Asia-Pacific region, behind much larger economies such as
China, India and Japan. South Korean technology is instrumental in the development of the UAE’s
Barakah Nuclear Power Plant, which is the first in the region.
The countries said they will look to open up “new channels for cooperation” in the health sector,
particularly in response to the coronavirus pandemic. The UAE’s economy ministry will also co-
operate at the government and private sector levels to help support entrepreneurship and SMEs.
Both sides will also look to develop "sustainable partnerships" in more fields including energy,
renewable energy, food security, aviation, tourism, intellectual property, education, and financial
services, Mr Al Marri said .
The UAE is now home to about half of all South Korean expats in the Gulf, with about 13,000 residing
in the country, according to the consulate general. By 2018, some 180,000 South Koreans were
visiting or transiting the UAE as tourists, an increase of almost 30 per cent over the previous year.
“This year, very close cooperation between both countries in dealing with Covid-19 has once again
proven the value of our outstanding strategic partnership," said South Korean deputy prime minister
and minister for economy, Nam-Ki Hong.
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U.S. shale producers race for federal permits ahead of presidential election
Reuters + NewBase
Oil producers in the top U.S. shale fields are stockpiling drilling permits on federal land ahead of the
November U.S. presidential election, concerned that a win by Democratic candidate Joe Biden
could lead to a clamp-down on oilfield activity.
Federal permitting in the largest U.S. oilfield in the Permian Basin, located in Texas and New
Mexico, is up 80% in about the last three months, which analysts attribute to a hedge against a win
by Biden, who currently leads U.S. President Donald Trump by several points in national polling.
Biden has stated that he does not want to ban fracking outright, putting him at odds with many
environmentalists and Democratic party activists.
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However, his climate plan includes banning new oil and gas permits on public lands, which industry
groups say would hurt the economy and cut off an energy boom that has made the United States
the world’s largest crude oil producer.
The shale revolution of recent years boosted U.S. crude output to roughly 12 million barrels per day
(bpd) last year through hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, which is environmentally controversial as it
involves pumping water, sand and chemicals into rock at high pressure to release oil or natural gas.
As of Aug. 24, producers have received 974 permits so far this year for new wells on federal land in
the Permian, compared with 1,068 for all of last year and 265 in 2018, according to data firm
Enverus.
In the 90 days up till Aug. 24, producers received 404 permits in the Permian, compared with 225
and 11 in the same period in 2019 and 2018, respectively. The scramble for permits comes despite
the weak outlook for oil drilling and prices due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.
Crude prices LCOc1 plunged in spring following the outbreak and have remained stuck near $40 a
barrel. The number of oil and gas rigs drilling new wells in the United States hit record lows for 15
weeks and last week was 71% lower year-on-year, according to Baker Hughes data, and analysts
do not expect a sharp rebound for some time.
Uncertainty about a ban and other possible regulatory changes, including a proposal to modify
royalties to account for climate costs, mean more permits will be filed ahead of the election, said
Bernadette Johnson, vice president at Enverus.
The industry has raced to file for permits before ahead of potential regulatory changes.
In Colorado in 2018, as voters considered a proposition to increase the distance required between
new wells and buildings, permitting jumped 165% in the last six months of the year compared with
the first half, according to Enverus. At least nine producers stockpiled more than two years’ worth
of permits.
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EOG Resources Inc, Cimarex Energy Co, Matador Resources Co and Devon Energy Corp are
among the shale producers who have said they expect to have years of drilling permits. Devon is
“proactively managing risks” by stockpiling more than 550 federal permits in New Mexico and
Wyoming, Chief Executive Officer Dave Hager told analysts this month.
Most producers have “a runway of 12 to 18 months” in permits in the Permian and Wyoming’s
Powder River Basin, said Jake Roberts at energy investment bank Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.
Federal permits are for two years and can be extended another two, but there is no guarantee that
routine permit extensions would continue in the future, Cimarex CEO Tom Jorden said on an
earnings call in August.
U.S. oil production remains below 2019’s peak and analysts expect it will be slow to recover in the
coming year, as shale production depends on new investment due to the short life of the wells
drilled.
LAND OF ENCHANTMENT
The race for permits has centered on the part of the Permian located in New Mexico, said Artem
Abramov, head of shale research at Rystad Energy.
About 85% of well permits there have been on federal lands this year, up from 60% in 2018 and
2019 - evidence of companies trying to “fast track” permits on federal acreage, Abramov said.
Meanwhile, permits on state and private lands, which features similar geology, have fallen.
New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham, a Democrat, has said she would ask for a waiver
exempting it from any drilling bans. The state is one of the nation’s poorest, and a third of the state’s
budget comes from oil and gas revenues. Around 65% of New Mexico production is on federal
acreage.
“We think the chances of them saying you can’t drill on your leasehold are fairly slim,” CEO Joseph
Foran told analysts in July.
Its new federal permits in two key New Mexico counties that are among the most prolific in the
Permian Basin are up 149% so far this year, compared with its 2019 total, according to Rystad.
EOG’s permits in those same New Mexico counties, Eddy and Lea, are up 49% so far this year
compared with all of 2019, according to Rystad. EOG has 2,500 permits on federal lands in four
states approved or in the works, enough for four years, Chief Operating Officer Lloyd Helms said
on an earnings call.
The industry has secured
so many permits that
investors and analysts
have largely shrugged off
the political risks of a
federal fracking ban. “I’m
not sure if it would have the
big impact that people are
making it out to be,” said
Rob Thummel, energy
portfolio manager at
Tortoise Capital.
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U.S Natural gas price differentials to Henry Hub narrowed
U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on Natural Gas Intelligence
The average spot price differentials between regional natural gas hubs and the Henry Hub, also
typically known in the natural gas industry as the basis price, have narrowed at many trading hubs
in the first half of 2020 compared with the first half of 2019.
The natural gas basis reflects the difference between the price of natural gas at the benchmark
Henry Hub in Louisiana and the price of natural gas at another delivery point elsewhere in the
country.
The basis at key demand hubs (near population centers) narrowed primarily because of weather-
related factors, but the basis at some supply hubs (near production areas) narrowed because of
decreases in natural gas production. Declines in economic activity related to coronavirus disease
(COVID-19) and its mitigation efforts generally further narrowed the basis at both demand and
supply hubs.
Warmer-than-normal temperatures during the 2019–2020 heating season (November 1–March 31)
contributed to lower basis prices early in 2020 at key natural gas hubs serving demand markets,
such as SoCal Citygate in Southern California; Algonquin Citygate near Boston, Massachusetts;
and Transco Zone 5 in Virginia.
At Algonquin Citygate, mild winter temperatures in New England contributed to a lower premium to
Henry Hub in 2020 compared with past years, and the basis turned negative by March instead of
by April or May, which is a more typical basis price seasonal pattern at Algonquin Citygate. Some
demand hubs, especially SoCal Citygate and Algonquin Citygate, are often constrained by pipeline
infrastructure, which limits the flow of natural gas into the region and leads to wider basis prices.
In Southern California, improvements to natural gas infrastructure—pipeline repair completions and
additional flexibility withdrawing natural gas from the Aliso Canyon facility—narrowed the basis price
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at the SoCal Citygate in early 2020 after peaking at nearly $8 per million British thermal units
(MMBtu) in February 2019 as a result of cold weather and pipeline constraints.
Basis prices remained narrow in Southern California between January and July 2020, despite
constrained pipeline infrastructure, which generally increases basis prices. However, in mid-August
2020, the basis price at SoCal Citygate briefly reached $11.00/MMBtu amid increasing demand for
natural gas-fired power generation, driven by intense summer heat. The increase in power demand
resulted in California Independent System Operator (CAISO) issuing rotating power outages.
Demand for natural gas at U.S. commercial and industrial establishments declined from March
through June 2020 because of reduced economic activity related to efforts to slow the spread of
COVID-19, which also contributed to relatively narrow basis prices.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on Natural Gas Intelligence
Natural gas hubs located in producing areas, such as the Waha Hub in West Texas and the
Dominion South Hub in southwestern Pennsylvania, typically trade at a discount to Henry Hub. This
discount widens when pipeline constraints limit natural gas takeaway capacity out of the
region. Crude oil and associated natural gas production declined in the first half of 2020,
exacerbated by the economic impact of COVID-19 and declining crude oil prices in the spring of
2020.
Throughout 2019, the basis price at the Waha Hub, located in the Permian Basin, was wide: Waha
prices reached nearly $3.00/MMBtu lower than Henry Hub prices in April 2019. In the first half of
2020, the basis narrowed as a result of low crude oil prices and reduced associated natural gas
production in the Permian Basin.
EIA estimates natural gas production in the Permian Basin has declined about 10% since January’s
high of 10.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). Additional pipeline takeaway capacity completed
during the past year also helped support higher prices at Waha, narrowing the basis price.
At Dominion South, located in the Appalachian Basin, the basis price stayed relatively the same in
the first half of 2020 compared with the first half of 2019. Compared with the Permian Basin, the
Appalachian Basin has less oil-directed drilling. Lower oil prices have not affected shale natural gas
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production in the Appalachian Basin, where production has declined by less than 1% since the
beginning of 2020.
S&P Market Intelligence forward basis swaps on futures contracts, which allow participants to trade
the price differences between physical natural gas delivery locations, suggest that the market
expects narrowed basis prices at most hubs through the end of the year.
As of August 17, the winter 2020–2021 forward basis swaps for SoCal Citygate and Waha Hub
narrow further compared with last winter, averaging $1.11/MMBtu and -$0.47/MMBtu, respectively.
At the Algonquin Citygate, forward basis swaps suggest a widening in the basis price for this
upcoming winter, rising to $2.28/MMBtu amid expectations of colder winter temperatures in New
England. Forward basis swaps indicate a larger basis this winter for trading hubs Transco Zone 5
and Dominion South in the eastern United States as well, averaging $0.95/MMBtu and -
$0.48/MMBtu, respectively.
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World: Power sector transformation will get world one third of
way to net zero: IEA + Reuters + NewBase
The transformation of the power sector will only get the world one third of the way to a goal of
achieving net zero emissions by mid-century, a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) said
on Thursday.
Global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are expected to fall this year by 8% from 2019 - their lowest
level since 2010 - as slower economic growth due to the COVID-19 pandemic slashed energy
demand.
The transport, industry and building sectors currently account for more than 55% of CO2 emissions
from the energy system and that is expected to grow due to more vehicles being electrified, metals
recycling and heat production for industry and homes, the IEA said.
Electricity generation would need to be around 2.5 times higher in 2050 than it is today, requiring a
rate of growth equivalent to the entire U.S. power sector every three years.
Annual additions of renewable electricity capacity, meanwhile, would need to average around four
times the current record, which was reached in 2019, the report said.
The report analyzed more than 800 technology options to examine what would need to happen for
the world to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.
The IEA said between a third and a half of cumulative emissions reductions needed come from
technologies which are not commercially available today - for example, low-carbon hydrogen, which
is produced by electrolysis powered by renewable energy, and technology to capture carbon
emissions released to the atmosphere and store them.
A large amount of additional power generation is needed for low-carbon hydrogen, which is
increasingly being viewed as a way for industries such as steel to decarbonize.
The global capacity of electrolysers needs to grow to 3,300 gigawatts (GW) from 0.2 GW today. To
produce enough hydrogen to reach net zero emissions, the electrolysers would consume twice the
amount of electricity which China generates, the IEA said.
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NewBase 11 September -2020 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Oil falls on U.S. market slide, unexpected rise in inventories
Reuters + NewBase
Oil prices fell further on Friday and were on track for a second weekly fall after U.S. stock markets
tumbled and U.S. stockpiles rose unexpectedly.
Brent LCOc1 was down 21 cents, or 0.5%, at $39.85 a barrel by 1016 GMT, after falling nearly 2%
on Thursday, while U.S. crude CLc1 dropped 11 cents, or 0.3%, to $37.19 a barrel, having fallen
2% in the previous session.
Both benchmarks were 6% down for the week.
“Financial markets are continuing to set the tone, including on the oil market. The renewed slide on
U.S. stock markets dragged oil prices down with it,” Commerzbank analyst Eugen Weinberg said.
Heavyweight tech-related stocks resumed their decline on Thursday as the number of Americans
filing new claims for unemployment benefits remained high.
Oil price special
coverage
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“Stock markets dived, oil followed, and Brent lost 15% of its value in five trading sessions as money
managers liquidated,” oil broker PVM’s Tamas Varga said. Also dampening the market mood, the
U.S. Senate killed a Republican bill that would have provided around $300 billion in new coronavirus
aid.
Fears about an oversupply also added to the general feeling of uncertainty, Weinberg said.
In the United States, stockpiles rose last week, against expectations, as refineries slowly returned
to operations after production sites were shut down due to storms in the Gulf of Mexico and the
wider region.
U.S. crude inventories rose 2 million barrels, compared with forecasts for a 1.3 million-barrel
decrease in a Reuters poll. In a further bearish sign, traders were starting to book tankers again to
store crude oil and diesel, amid a stalled economic recovery as the COVID-19 pandemic continues.
Increasing stockpiles are likely to be a subject at a meeting on Sept. 17 of the market monitoring
panel of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia.
The group known as OPEC+ has been withholding supply to reduce stockpiles, but analysts say
the meeting is likely to focus on compliance among members, rather than seek deeper cuts.
Following Saudi Arabia, Kuwait also lowered its official selling price to Asia for October, to counter
slower demand.
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NewBase Special Coverage
The Energy world - Special 11- Sep. -2020
Exxon downsizes global empire as Wall Street worries about dividend
Reuters + NewBase
Bad-timed bets on rising demand have Exxon Mobil Corp facing a shortfall of about $48 billion
through 2021, according to a Reuters tally and Wall Street estimates, a situation that will require the
top U.S. oil company to make deep cuts to its staff and projects.
Wall Street investors are even starting to worry about the once-sacrosanct dividend at Exxon, which
in the 20th Century became the world’s most valuable company using global scale, relentless
expansion and strict financial controls.
Exxon weathered a series of setbacks last decade and under Chief Executive Darren Woods sought
to return to past prominence by big bets on U.S. shale oilfields, pipelines and global refining and
plastics. It also bet big on offshore Guyana, where it discovered up to 8 billion barrels of oil, six
years of production at its current rate.
But Exxon’s ability to finance that global expansion is no longer assured. This year the company
borrowed $23 billion to pay its bills, nearly doubling its outstanding debt. In July, it posted its first
back-to-back quarterly losses ever. It faces a full-year $1.86 billion loss, according to Refinitiv,
excluding asset sales or write downs.
The looming shortfall of about $48 billion through 2021 was calculated using cash from operations,
commitments to shareholder payouts and costs for the massive expansion program Exxon had
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planned. Now the company is embarking on a worldwide review of where it can cut expenses, and
analysts believe the once unthinkable dividend cut has grown more likely.
JOB REVIEWS, BENEFIT CUTS
This year’s sharp drop in oil demand and pricing has shredded Woods’ plan to spend at least $30
billion a year through 2025 to revive production and earnings by expanding in oil processing,
chemicals and production, and by taking a commanding role in U.S. shale and liquefied natural gas,
markets that then looked promising.
Instead, he must prepare Exxon to operate in a world of weaker demand for its oil, gas and plastics.
The company has been dropped from the Dow Jones index of top U.S. industrial companies after
92 years. It is exposing up to 10% of U.S. staff to harsh reviews that could push thousands out of
the company, and is taking away lavish retirement benefits that had career employees staying 30
years on average.
Exxon declined to make an executive available for an interview, and a spokesman said details of
cost cuts would be disclosed early next year.
“We remain committed to our capital allocation priorities – investing in industry advantaged projects,
paying a reliable and growing dividend, and maintaining a strong balance sheet,” said spokesman
Casey Norton.
A review of projects now underway aims to “maximize efficiency and capture additional cost savings
to put us in the strongest position” as energy markets improve, he said.
(For a graphic on cash from operations and asset sales, click here: here)
Oil prices have dropped 35% from the start of 2020 as demand collapsed during the COVID-19
pandemic. BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Total and Repsol and others have cut billions of dollars off the
value of their oil and gas properties, something Exxon has yet to do.
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The European majors also are adding renewable energy and electricity to their portfolios, a hedge
against permanently reduced oil and gas demand. BP plans by 2030 to reduce its fossil fuel
production by 40%. It plans to sell even more fossil fuel properties if oil prices have a sustained
rally.
DEBT NEARLY DOUBLES
Exxon’s cash from operations - estimated to be about $17.4 billion this year - is $20 billion below
the funds needed for this year’s already pared investment plan and shareholder dividend, a Reuters
analysis showed.
The company’s stock price closed Friday at
$39.08, off 56% since Woods became CEO.
He raised $23.19 billion in new debt this year
to bolster finances, but has vowed not to
borrow more and as recently as July insisted
the dividend was sacrosanct.
Investors say the commitments will be
difficult to keep. “At $41 or $42 [per barrel]
crude, you can’t put those puzzle pieces
together and have them make sense,” said
Mark Stoeckle, senior portfolio manager at
Adams Funds, which holds about $70 million
in Exxon shares.
Exxon must cut its dividend if the share price
remains depressed, Stoeckle said.
“Something has to give. Wherever the give comes hurts management credibility,” he said. A cut
would be “cataclysmic” for Exxon’s stock, said equity analyst Paul Sankey of Sankey Research,
given that executives in July reiterated its importance.
Exxon’s weak cash flow worries investors that hold the stock for its nearly 9% dividend. Matrix Asset
Advisors has it on a “watch list in terms of our conviction and their ability to defend and grow the
dividend,” said David Katz, chief investment officer at the New York firm.
SPENDING CUTS AND DEFERRALS
Exxon will slash spending in the Permian Basin shale field this year to about $3 billion from an
original $7.4 billion budget, consultancy Rystad Energy estimates.
The company has said it plans to reduce the number of drilling rigs there to 15 or fewer, from 55
early this year, and the company’s pullback “will continue,” senior vice president Neil Chapman said
in a July call. Spending on refining and chemicals plants that take years to design and complete, “is
really a question of deferral,” he added.
A $10 billion chemical plant in China remains subject to permits, the Exxon spokesman said.
Spending limits will further constrain its oil, refining and plastics businesses and could revive
pressure on the company to divest some operations.
“Each of our core businesses could be a powerhouse in its own right,” Woods said when he rolled
out the vision in early 2017. At the time, he was pushing back at calls to spin off businesses to boost
lagging returns.
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publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16
Woods stuck to the growth targets last year, putting this year’s potential earnings at $25.1 billion
with oil at $60 a barrel and assuming flat refining and chemical margins. That forecast included 2020
cash flow and asset sales targets that have become unreachable since the pandemic hit.
Analysts said that Woods must dial back. Project outlays next year could drop to between $10.4
billion and $15 billion, according to ScotiaBank and RBC Capital Markets, half the original outlook.
NO URGENCY FOR LNG
Some project schedules are being quietly stretched to save costs.
Construction at a $10 billion-plus LNG facility in Texas where Exxon holds a 30% stake already was
moving slowly and now “there isn’t the urgency,” said Alex Munton, with consulting and data firm
Wood Mackenzie. He expects its startup will be delayed a year, to 2025 at the earliest.
A massive LNG project in Mozambique likely will not get a final investment decision until 2023, as
an expansion of Exxon LNG exports in Papua, New Guinea, is delayed by government talks and
low LNG prices, Munton said.
“The reality is that Exxon is not moving forward with either of those in the near term,” Munton said.
In Mexico, Exxon will likely reduce offshore activity after its first well was not commercial, according
to people familiar with its operations. It will instead focus on fuel imports and retail sales, they said.
Exxon has begun exploration drilling in Brazil, where the company returned in 2017 to become
second only to state-controlled Petroleo Brasileiro SA in holdings of offshore exploration acreage.
But “spend and activity deferrals cannot be ruled out as part of any cost-cutting,” said Ruaraidh
Montgomery, director at Welligence Energy Analytics.
Other projects already begun, including the $1.9 billion expansion of its Beaumont, Texas, refinery,
face an up to one year postponement. Exxon declined to comment on the LNG, Mexico or Brazil
spending. Other than Guyana, “there will be no other sacred cow in the near-term budget,” said
analyst Paul Cheng of ScotiaBank.
Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17
NewBase Energy News 11 September 2020 - Issue No. 1372 call on +971504822502, UAE
The Editor:” Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced Twice a week and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscriptions, please email us.
About: Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
www.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-38b995b
Mobile: +971504822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net or khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with over 30 years of experience in the Oil & Gas
sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General
Petroleum Corp. “Emarat “with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC
area via Hawk Energy Service, as the UAE operations base. Khaled is the Founder
of NewBase Energy, and an international consultant, advisor, ecopreneur and
journalist with expertise in Gas & Oil pipeline Networks, waste management, waste-
to-energy, renewable energy, environment protection and sustainable development.
His geographical areas of focus include Middle East, Africa and Asia. Khaled has
successfully accomplished a wide range of projects in the areas of Gas & Oil with
extensive works on Gas Pipeline Network Facilities & gas compressor stations.
Executed projects in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering &
regulating stations and in the engineering of gas/oil supply routes. Has drafted &
finalized many contracts/agreements in products sale, transportation, operation & maintenance agreements.
Along with many MOUs & JVs for organizations & governments authorities. Currently dealing for biomass
energy, biogas, waste-to-energy, recycling and waste management. He has participated in numerous
conferences and workshops as chairman, session chair, keynote speaker and panelist. Khaled is the Editor-
in-Chief of NewBase Energy News and is a professional environmental writer with more than 1400 popular
articles to his credit. He is proactively engaged in creating mass awareness on renewable energy, waste
management and environmental sustainability in different parts of the world. Khaled has become a reference
for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences and for many Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC
leading satellite Channels. Khaled can be reached at any time, see contact details above.
NewBase: For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
NewBase 2020 K. Al Awadi
Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18
Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 19
Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 20
Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 21
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New base energy news 11 september 2020 - issue no. 1372, senior editor eng. khaled al awadi

  • 1. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase Energy News 11 September 2020 - Issue No. 1372 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE U.A.E: Adnoc awards $245m deals to upgrade main oil lines WAM + NewBase Adnoc Onshore, a subsidiary of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc), has awarded two Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) contracts to upgrade two main oil lines (MOLs) and crude receiving facilities at the Jebel Dhanna Terminal in Abu Dhabi. The EPC contracts have a combined value of around $245 million (AED899.9 million) and were awarded to China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering Company Limited – Abu Dhabi and Abu Dhabi- based Target Engineering Construction. Over 50 percent of the total award value will flow back into the UAE’s economy under Adnoc’s In- Country Value (ICV) program, underscoring Adnoc’s drive to prioritize ICV as it invests responsibly and pursues smart growth to maximize value from its assets and deliver sustainable returns to the UAE. Yaser Saeed Almazrouei, Executive Director of Adnoc’s Upstream Directorate, said: “The EPC contracts awarded by Adnoc Onshore will increase the capacity of the two main oil lines and upgrade the Jebel Dhanna Terminal to enable it to receive Upper Zakum and Non-System crude for delivery to the Ruwais Refinery West project. “The awards follow a very competitive tender process and highlight how Adnoc is making smart investments to optimize performance and unlock greater value from our assets. Crucially, a www.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-38b995b
  • 2. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2 significant portion of the awards will flow back into the UAE’s economy under Adnoc’s ICV program, reinforcing our commitment to maximize value for the nation as we create a more profitable upstream business and deliver our 2030 strategy.” The EPC contract awarded to China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering– Abu Dhabi is valued at approximately $135 million and the scope is to replace the two MOLs which transport Adnoc’s premium grade Murban crude oil from its oilfields at Bab (BAB), Bu Hasa (BUH), North East Bab (NEB), and South East (SE) to Jebel Dhanna terminal, increasing the capacity of the pipelines by over 30 percent. The contract is expected to be completed in 30 months and will see over 45 percent of the award value flow back into the UAE’s economy under Adnoc’s ICV program. The EPC contract awarded to Target Engineering Construction is valued at approximately $110 million and will see the contractor upgrade the crude receiving facilities at the Jebel Dhanna Terminal, enabling Adnoc to utilize parts of the terminal’s existing facilities to import Upper Zakum (UZ) crude oil from offshore and Non-System (NS) crude, for delivery to the new Ruwais Refinery West (RRW) project, located approximately 12 km to the east of Jebel Dhanna terminal. This ability to import other grades of crude at Jebel Dhanna following the completion of the project will provide Adnoc greater flexibility, highlighting how the company is extracting value from every barrel of crude it produces. The terminal was originally conceived and operated as a Murban crude oil export facility since its inception in the 1960s. The contract is expected to be completed in 20 months and will see over 60 percent of the award value to Target Engineering flow back into the UAE’s economy under Adnoc’s ICV programme.
  • 3. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3 UAE and South Korea forge deals to co-operate in 10 new sectors The National + NewBase The UAE and South Korea signed agreements to co-operate in ten new sectors including science, oil and gas and infrastructure over the next two years. Non-oil trade with South Korea, a key importer of hydrocarbons from the Middle East, reached $5 billion (Dh18.3bn) in 2019. Both countries will explore joint investments in small and medium-sized enterprises, communication, information technology, artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, 5G technology, smart agriculture, green economy, energy, including renewables, science and innovation, education, tourism, financial services and transportation. The UAE is keen "to establish frameworks for cooperation in the fields of technology to benefit from the world-leading Korean experience,” said economy minister Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri. He was speaking at the seventh UAE-South Korea Joint Economic Committee, which was held virtually. “We are focusing on the advanced technology sectors in particular, so that the UAE and Korean economies can progress and work together through joint investment in the fields of innovation, research and development, to reach the commercial production in the sectors of the new economy,” he added. The UAE established bilateral diplomatic ties with South Korea in 1980. The country is the UAE’s fifth-largest trading partner from the Asia-Pacific region, behind much larger economies such as China, India and Japan. South Korean technology is instrumental in the development of the UAE’s Barakah Nuclear Power Plant, which is the first in the region. The countries said they will look to open up “new channels for cooperation” in the health sector, particularly in response to the coronavirus pandemic. The UAE’s economy ministry will also co- operate at the government and private sector levels to help support entrepreneurship and SMEs. Both sides will also look to develop "sustainable partnerships" in more fields including energy, renewable energy, food security, aviation, tourism, intellectual property, education, and financial services, Mr Al Marri said . The UAE is now home to about half of all South Korean expats in the Gulf, with about 13,000 residing in the country, according to the consulate general. By 2018, some 180,000 South Koreans were visiting or transiting the UAE as tourists, an increase of almost 30 per cent over the previous year. “This year, very close cooperation between both countries in dealing with Covid-19 has once again proven the value of our outstanding strategic partnership," said South Korean deputy prime minister and minister for economy, Nam-Ki Hong.
  • 4. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4 U.S. shale producers race for federal permits ahead of presidential election Reuters + NewBase Oil producers in the top U.S. shale fields are stockpiling drilling permits on federal land ahead of the November U.S. presidential election, concerned that a win by Democratic candidate Joe Biden could lead to a clamp-down on oilfield activity. Federal permitting in the largest U.S. oilfield in the Permian Basin, located in Texas and New Mexico, is up 80% in about the last three months, which analysts attribute to a hedge against a win by Biden, who currently leads U.S. President Donald Trump by several points in national polling. Biden has stated that he does not want to ban fracking outright, putting him at odds with many environmentalists and Democratic party activists.
  • 5. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5 However, his climate plan includes banning new oil and gas permits on public lands, which industry groups say would hurt the economy and cut off an energy boom that has made the United States the world’s largest crude oil producer. The shale revolution of recent years boosted U.S. crude output to roughly 12 million barrels per day (bpd) last year through hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, which is environmentally controversial as it involves pumping water, sand and chemicals into rock at high pressure to release oil or natural gas. As of Aug. 24, producers have received 974 permits so far this year for new wells on federal land in the Permian, compared with 1,068 for all of last year and 265 in 2018, according to data firm Enverus. In the 90 days up till Aug. 24, producers received 404 permits in the Permian, compared with 225 and 11 in the same period in 2019 and 2018, respectively. The scramble for permits comes despite the weak outlook for oil drilling and prices due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Crude prices LCOc1 plunged in spring following the outbreak and have remained stuck near $40 a barrel. The number of oil and gas rigs drilling new wells in the United States hit record lows for 15 weeks and last week was 71% lower year-on-year, according to Baker Hughes data, and analysts do not expect a sharp rebound for some time. Uncertainty about a ban and other possible regulatory changes, including a proposal to modify royalties to account for climate costs, mean more permits will be filed ahead of the election, said Bernadette Johnson, vice president at Enverus. The industry has raced to file for permits before ahead of potential regulatory changes. In Colorado in 2018, as voters considered a proposition to increase the distance required between new wells and buildings, permitting jumped 165% in the last six months of the year compared with the first half, according to Enverus. At least nine producers stockpiled more than two years’ worth of permits.
  • 6. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6 EOG Resources Inc, Cimarex Energy Co, Matador Resources Co and Devon Energy Corp are among the shale producers who have said they expect to have years of drilling permits. Devon is “proactively managing risks” by stockpiling more than 550 federal permits in New Mexico and Wyoming, Chief Executive Officer Dave Hager told analysts this month. Most producers have “a runway of 12 to 18 months” in permits in the Permian and Wyoming’s Powder River Basin, said Jake Roberts at energy investment bank Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Federal permits are for two years and can be extended another two, but there is no guarantee that routine permit extensions would continue in the future, Cimarex CEO Tom Jorden said on an earnings call in August. U.S. oil production remains below 2019’s peak and analysts expect it will be slow to recover in the coming year, as shale production depends on new investment due to the short life of the wells drilled. LAND OF ENCHANTMENT The race for permits has centered on the part of the Permian located in New Mexico, said Artem Abramov, head of shale research at Rystad Energy. About 85% of well permits there have been on federal lands this year, up from 60% in 2018 and 2019 - evidence of companies trying to “fast track” permits on federal acreage, Abramov said. Meanwhile, permits on state and private lands, which features similar geology, have fallen. New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham, a Democrat, has said she would ask for a waiver exempting it from any drilling bans. The state is one of the nation’s poorest, and a third of the state’s budget comes from oil and gas revenues. Around 65% of New Mexico production is on federal acreage. “We think the chances of them saying you can’t drill on your leasehold are fairly slim,” CEO Joseph Foran told analysts in July. Its new federal permits in two key New Mexico counties that are among the most prolific in the Permian Basin are up 149% so far this year, compared with its 2019 total, according to Rystad. EOG’s permits in those same New Mexico counties, Eddy and Lea, are up 49% so far this year compared with all of 2019, according to Rystad. EOG has 2,500 permits on federal lands in four states approved or in the works, enough for four years, Chief Operating Officer Lloyd Helms said on an earnings call. The industry has secured so many permits that investors and analysts have largely shrugged off the political risks of a federal fracking ban. “I’m not sure if it would have the big impact that people are making it out to be,” said Rob Thummel, energy portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital.
  • 7. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7 U.S Natural gas price differentials to Henry Hub narrowed U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on Natural Gas Intelligence The average spot price differentials between regional natural gas hubs and the Henry Hub, also typically known in the natural gas industry as the basis price, have narrowed at many trading hubs in the first half of 2020 compared with the first half of 2019. The natural gas basis reflects the difference between the price of natural gas at the benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana and the price of natural gas at another delivery point elsewhere in the country. The basis at key demand hubs (near population centers) narrowed primarily because of weather- related factors, but the basis at some supply hubs (near production areas) narrowed because of decreases in natural gas production. Declines in economic activity related to coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and its mitigation efforts generally further narrowed the basis at both demand and supply hubs. Warmer-than-normal temperatures during the 2019–2020 heating season (November 1–March 31) contributed to lower basis prices early in 2020 at key natural gas hubs serving demand markets, such as SoCal Citygate in Southern California; Algonquin Citygate near Boston, Massachusetts; and Transco Zone 5 in Virginia. At Algonquin Citygate, mild winter temperatures in New England contributed to a lower premium to Henry Hub in 2020 compared with past years, and the basis turned negative by March instead of by April or May, which is a more typical basis price seasonal pattern at Algonquin Citygate. Some demand hubs, especially SoCal Citygate and Algonquin Citygate, are often constrained by pipeline infrastructure, which limits the flow of natural gas into the region and leads to wider basis prices. In Southern California, improvements to natural gas infrastructure—pipeline repair completions and additional flexibility withdrawing natural gas from the Aliso Canyon facility—narrowed the basis price
  • 8. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 8 at the SoCal Citygate in early 2020 after peaking at nearly $8 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in February 2019 as a result of cold weather and pipeline constraints. Basis prices remained narrow in Southern California between January and July 2020, despite constrained pipeline infrastructure, which generally increases basis prices. However, in mid-August 2020, the basis price at SoCal Citygate briefly reached $11.00/MMBtu amid increasing demand for natural gas-fired power generation, driven by intense summer heat. The increase in power demand resulted in California Independent System Operator (CAISO) issuing rotating power outages. Demand for natural gas at U.S. commercial and industrial establishments declined from March through June 2020 because of reduced economic activity related to efforts to slow the spread of COVID-19, which also contributed to relatively narrow basis prices. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on Natural Gas Intelligence Natural gas hubs located in producing areas, such as the Waha Hub in West Texas and the Dominion South Hub in southwestern Pennsylvania, typically trade at a discount to Henry Hub. This discount widens when pipeline constraints limit natural gas takeaway capacity out of the region. Crude oil and associated natural gas production declined in the first half of 2020, exacerbated by the economic impact of COVID-19 and declining crude oil prices in the spring of 2020. Throughout 2019, the basis price at the Waha Hub, located in the Permian Basin, was wide: Waha prices reached nearly $3.00/MMBtu lower than Henry Hub prices in April 2019. In the first half of 2020, the basis narrowed as a result of low crude oil prices and reduced associated natural gas production in the Permian Basin. EIA estimates natural gas production in the Permian Basin has declined about 10% since January’s high of 10.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). Additional pipeline takeaway capacity completed during the past year also helped support higher prices at Waha, narrowing the basis price. At Dominion South, located in the Appalachian Basin, the basis price stayed relatively the same in the first half of 2020 compared with the first half of 2019. Compared with the Permian Basin, the Appalachian Basin has less oil-directed drilling. Lower oil prices have not affected shale natural gas
  • 9. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9 production in the Appalachian Basin, where production has declined by less than 1% since the beginning of 2020. S&P Market Intelligence forward basis swaps on futures contracts, which allow participants to trade the price differences between physical natural gas delivery locations, suggest that the market expects narrowed basis prices at most hubs through the end of the year. As of August 17, the winter 2020–2021 forward basis swaps for SoCal Citygate and Waha Hub narrow further compared with last winter, averaging $1.11/MMBtu and -$0.47/MMBtu, respectively. At the Algonquin Citygate, forward basis swaps suggest a widening in the basis price for this upcoming winter, rising to $2.28/MMBtu amid expectations of colder winter temperatures in New England. Forward basis swaps indicate a larger basis this winter for trading hubs Transco Zone 5 and Dominion South in the eastern United States as well, averaging $0.95/MMBtu and - $0.48/MMBtu, respectively.
  • 10. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 10 World: Power sector transformation will get world one third of way to net zero: IEA + Reuters + NewBase The transformation of the power sector will only get the world one third of the way to a goal of achieving net zero emissions by mid-century, a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday. Global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are expected to fall this year by 8% from 2019 - their lowest level since 2010 - as slower economic growth due to the COVID-19 pandemic slashed energy demand. The transport, industry and building sectors currently account for more than 55% of CO2 emissions from the energy system and that is expected to grow due to more vehicles being electrified, metals recycling and heat production for industry and homes, the IEA said. Electricity generation would need to be around 2.5 times higher in 2050 than it is today, requiring a rate of growth equivalent to the entire U.S. power sector every three years. Annual additions of renewable electricity capacity, meanwhile, would need to average around four times the current record, which was reached in 2019, the report said. The report analyzed more than 800 technology options to examine what would need to happen for the world to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. The IEA said between a third and a half of cumulative emissions reductions needed come from technologies which are not commercially available today - for example, low-carbon hydrogen, which is produced by electrolysis powered by renewable energy, and technology to capture carbon emissions released to the atmosphere and store them. A large amount of additional power generation is needed for low-carbon hydrogen, which is increasingly being viewed as a way for industries such as steel to decarbonize. The global capacity of electrolysers needs to grow to 3,300 gigawatts (GW) from 0.2 GW today. To produce enough hydrogen to reach net zero emissions, the electrolysers would consume twice the amount of electricity which China generates, the IEA said.
  • 11. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 11 NewBase 11 September -2020 Khaled Al Awadi NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE Oil falls on U.S. market slide, unexpected rise in inventories Reuters + NewBase Oil prices fell further on Friday and were on track for a second weekly fall after U.S. stock markets tumbled and U.S. stockpiles rose unexpectedly. Brent LCOc1 was down 21 cents, or 0.5%, at $39.85 a barrel by 1016 GMT, after falling nearly 2% on Thursday, while U.S. crude CLc1 dropped 11 cents, or 0.3%, to $37.19 a barrel, having fallen 2% in the previous session. Both benchmarks were 6% down for the week. “Financial markets are continuing to set the tone, including on the oil market. The renewed slide on U.S. stock markets dragged oil prices down with it,” Commerzbank analyst Eugen Weinberg said. Heavyweight tech-related stocks resumed their decline on Thursday as the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits remained high. Oil price special coverage
  • 12. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 12 “Stock markets dived, oil followed, and Brent lost 15% of its value in five trading sessions as money managers liquidated,” oil broker PVM’s Tamas Varga said. Also dampening the market mood, the U.S. Senate killed a Republican bill that would have provided around $300 billion in new coronavirus aid. Fears about an oversupply also added to the general feeling of uncertainty, Weinberg said. In the United States, stockpiles rose last week, against expectations, as refineries slowly returned to operations after production sites were shut down due to storms in the Gulf of Mexico and the wider region. U.S. crude inventories rose 2 million barrels, compared with forecasts for a 1.3 million-barrel decrease in a Reuters poll. In a further bearish sign, traders were starting to book tankers again to store crude oil and diesel, amid a stalled economic recovery as the COVID-19 pandemic continues. Increasing stockpiles are likely to be a subject at a meeting on Sept. 17 of the market monitoring panel of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia. The group known as OPEC+ has been withholding supply to reduce stockpiles, but analysts say the meeting is likely to focus on compliance among members, rather than seek deeper cuts. Following Saudi Arabia, Kuwait also lowered its official selling price to Asia for October, to counter slower demand.
  • 13. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 13 NewBase Special Coverage The Energy world - Special 11- Sep. -2020 Exxon downsizes global empire as Wall Street worries about dividend Reuters + NewBase Bad-timed bets on rising demand have Exxon Mobil Corp facing a shortfall of about $48 billion through 2021, according to a Reuters tally and Wall Street estimates, a situation that will require the top U.S. oil company to make deep cuts to its staff and projects. Wall Street investors are even starting to worry about the once-sacrosanct dividend at Exxon, which in the 20th Century became the world’s most valuable company using global scale, relentless expansion and strict financial controls. Exxon weathered a series of setbacks last decade and under Chief Executive Darren Woods sought to return to past prominence by big bets on U.S. shale oilfields, pipelines and global refining and plastics. It also bet big on offshore Guyana, where it discovered up to 8 billion barrels of oil, six years of production at its current rate. But Exxon’s ability to finance that global expansion is no longer assured. This year the company borrowed $23 billion to pay its bills, nearly doubling its outstanding debt. In July, it posted its first back-to-back quarterly losses ever. It faces a full-year $1.86 billion loss, according to Refinitiv, excluding asset sales or write downs. The looming shortfall of about $48 billion through 2021 was calculated using cash from operations, commitments to shareholder payouts and costs for the massive expansion program Exxon had
  • 14. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 14 planned. Now the company is embarking on a worldwide review of where it can cut expenses, and analysts believe the once unthinkable dividend cut has grown more likely. JOB REVIEWS, BENEFIT CUTS This year’s sharp drop in oil demand and pricing has shredded Woods’ plan to spend at least $30 billion a year through 2025 to revive production and earnings by expanding in oil processing, chemicals and production, and by taking a commanding role in U.S. shale and liquefied natural gas, markets that then looked promising. Instead, he must prepare Exxon to operate in a world of weaker demand for its oil, gas and plastics. The company has been dropped from the Dow Jones index of top U.S. industrial companies after 92 years. It is exposing up to 10% of U.S. staff to harsh reviews that could push thousands out of the company, and is taking away lavish retirement benefits that had career employees staying 30 years on average. Exxon declined to make an executive available for an interview, and a spokesman said details of cost cuts would be disclosed early next year. “We remain committed to our capital allocation priorities – investing in industry advantaged projects, paying a reliable and growing dividend, and maintaining a strong balance sheet,” said spokesman Casey Norton. A review of projects now underway aims to “maximize efficiency and capture additional cost savings to put us in the strongest position” as energy markets improve, he said. (For a graphic on cash from operations and asset sales, click here: here) Oil prices have dropped 35% from the start of 2020 as demand collapsed during the COVID-19 pandemic. BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Total and Repsol and others have cut billions of dollars off the value of their oil and gas properties, something Exxon has yet to do.
  • 15. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 15 The European majors also are adding renewable energy and electricity to their portfolios, a hedge against permanently reduced oil and gas demand. BP plans by 2030 to reduce its fossil fuel production by 40%. It plans to sell even more fossil fuel properties if oil prices have a sustained rally. DEBT NEARLY DOUBLES Exxon’s cash from operations - estimated to be about $17.4 billion this year - is $20 billion below the funds needed for this year’s already pared investment plan and shareholder dividend, a Reuters analysis showed. The company’s stock price closed Friday at $39.08, off 56% since Woods became CEO. He raised $23.19 billion in new debt this year to bolster finances, but has vowed not to borrow more and as recently as July insisted the dividend was sacrosanct. Investors say the commitments will be difficult to keep. “At $41 or $42 [per barrel] crude, you can’t put those puzzle pieces together and have them make sense,” said Mark Stoeckle, senior portfolio manager at Adams Funds, which holds about $70 million in Exxon shares. Exxon must cut its dividend if the share price remains depressed, Stoeckle said. “Something has to give. Wherever the give comes hurts management credibility,” he said. A cut would be “cataclysmic” for Exxon’s stock, said equity analyst Paul Sankey of Sankey Research, given that executives in July reiterated its importance. Exxon’s weak cash flow worries investors that hold the stock for its nearly 9% dividend. Matrix Asset Advisors has it on a “watch list in terms of our conviction and their ability to defend and grow the dividend,” said David Katz, chief investment officer at the New York firm. SPENDING CUTS AND DEFERRALS Exxon will slash spending in the Permian Basin shale field this year to about $3 billion from an original $7.4 billion budget, consultancy Rystad Energy estimates. The company has said it plans to reduce the number of drilling rigs there to 15 or fewer, from 55 early this year, and the company’s pullback “will continue,” senior vice president Neil Chapman said in a July call. Spending on refining and chemicals plants that take years to design and complete, “is really a question of deferral,” he added. A $10 billion chemical plant in China remains subject to permits, the Exxon spokesman said. Spending limits will further constrain its oil, refining and plastics businesses and could revive pressure on the company to divest some operations. “Each of our core businesses could be a powerhouse in its own right,” Woods said when he rolled out the vision in early 2017. At the time, he was pushing back at calls to spin off businesses to boost lagging returns.
  • 16. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16 Woods stuck to the growth targets last year, putting this year’s potential earnings at $25.1 billion with oil at $60 a barrel and assuming flat refining and chemical margins. That forecast included 2020 cash flow and asset sales targets that have become unreachable since the pandemic hit. Analysts said that Woods must dial back. Project outlays next year could drop to between $10.4 billion and $15 billion, according to ScotiaBank and RBC Capital Markets, half the original outlook. NO URGENCY FOR LNG Some project schedules are being quietly stretched to save costs. Construction at a $10 billion-plus LNG facility in Texas where Exxon holds a 30% stake already was moving slowly and now “there isn’t the urgency,” said Alex Munton, with consulting and data firm Wood Mackenzie. He expects its startup will be delayed a year, to 2025 at the earliest. A massive LNG project in Mozambique likely will not get a final investment decision until 2023, as an expansion of Exxon LNG exports in Papua, New Guinea, is delayed by government talks and low LNG prices, Munton said. “The reality is that Exxon is not moving forward with either of those in the near term,” Munton said. In Mexico, Exxon will likely reduce offshore activity after its first well was not commercial, according to people familiar with its operations. It will instead focus on fuel imports and retail sales, they said. Exxon has begun exploration drilling in Brazil, where the company returned in 2017 to become second only to state-controlled Petroleo Brasileiro SA in holdings of offshore exploration acreage. But “spend and activity deferrals cannot be ruled out as part of any cost-cutting,” said Ruaraidh Montgomery, director at Welligence Energy Analytics. Other projects already begun, including the $1.9 billion expansion of its Beaumont, Texas, refinery, face an up to one year postponement. Exxon declined to comment on the LNG, Mexico or Brazil spending. Other than Guyana, “there will be no other sacred cow in the near-term budget,” said analyst Paul Cheng of ScotiaBank.
  • 17. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17 NewBase Energy News 11 September 2020 - Issue No. 1372 call on +971504822502, UAE The Editor:” Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services NewBase energy news is produced Twice a week and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE. For additional free subscriptions, please email us. About: Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010 www.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-38b995b Mobile: +971504822502 khdmohd@hawkenergy.net or khdmohd@hotmail.com Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with over 30 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat “with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service, as the UAE operations base. Khaled is the Founder of NewBase Energy, and an international consultant, advisor, ecopreneur and journalist with expertise in Gas & Oil pipeline Networks, waste management, waste- to-energy, renewable energy, environment protection and sustainable development. His geographical areas of focus include Middle East, Africa and Asia. Khaled has successfully accomplished a wide range of projects in the areas of Gas & Oil with extensive works on Gas Pipeline Network Facilities & gas compressor stations. Executed projects in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of gas/oil supply routes. Has drafted & finalized many contracts/agreements in products sale, transportation, operation & maintenance agreements. Along with many MOUs & JVs for organizations & governments authorities. Currently dealing for biomass energy, biogas, waste-to-energy, recycling and waste management. He has participated in numerous conferences and workshops as chairman, session chair, keynote speaker and panelist. Khaled is the Editor- in-Chief of NewBase Energy News and is a professional environmental writer with more than 1400 popular articles to his credit. He is proactively engaged in creating mass awareness on renewable energy, waste management and environmental sustainability in different parts of the world. Khaled has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences and for many Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. Khaled can be reached at any time, see contact details above. NewBase: For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE NewBase 2020 K. Al Awadi
  • 18. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18
  • 19. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 19
  • 20. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 20
  • 21. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 21 For Your Recruitments needs and Top Talents, please seek our approved agents below