1. Pathways to Sustainability
February 5th, 2016 7:30AM- 4:00PM Spring, TX
ExxonMobil Campus, SeaRiver Maritime, Inc.
Global Projections for Shipping
PROF. MARIA BURNS
Director, Center for Logistics & Transportation Policy, University of Houston
Lead of Education & Workforce Transition,
Center for Borders, Trade and Immigration Research
A Dept. of Homeland Security Center of Excellence

4. Pathways to Sustainability
Global Projections for Shipping
Demand for Cargoes
Derived Demand for
Ships
Derived Demand for
Ports

5. Pathways to Sustainability
Global Projections for Shipping

6. Pathways to Sustainability
Global Projections for Shipping Center for Logistics and Transportation Policy
(Research & Training)

7. Pathways to Sustainability
Global Projections for Shipping
Structure of Global Seaborne Trade (2015)
TRADE GROWTH
Crude oil : -1.6%
Products : +1.7%
GasTrades: +3.9%
Containers +4.9% 2.47 bil.mt
Dry cargo +0.5%
• iron ore;
• coal;
• grain;
• bauxite/alumina;
• phosphate rock).

8. Pathways to Sustainability
Global Projections for Shipping
Global Economy:
• Weak aggregate demand
• Falling commodity prices
• Financial market volatility
• US Dollar Price
• Oil Price
GDP growth
2015: 2.4%.
2016: 2.9%.
2017: 3.2%.

9. Pathways to Sustainability
Global Projections for Shipping
Global Economy: An Overview

10. Pathways to Sustainability
Global Projections for Shipping
Global Economy: An Overview

11. Pathways to Sustainability
Global Projections for Shipping
Global Economy: OIL PRICE
Predicted Price Actual Price

12. Pathways to Sustainability
Global Projections for Shipping
Global Economy: OIL PRICE Oversupply: * S.Arabia, Iraq, Libya * USA
Top Oil Producers (2015) Top Oil Consumers
Numbers represent actual production measured in thousands of
barrels of oil per day. Chart: Oil & Gas 360®, Data: EIA 2016.

13. Pathways to Sustainability
Global Projections for Shipping
Global Economy 2016
Sovereign Debt Crisis
• High Debt + Bubble economy = Limited Growth
Banking Crisis
• China: Troubled credit: over $5 trillion:
• Half the size of the country’s annual economic output.
China: Banking Crisis
• Troubled credit may exceed $5 trillion:
• Half the size of the country’s annual economic output.

14. Pathways to Sustainability
Global Projections for Shipping
Global Economy 2016
Eurozone
Sovereign Debt Crisis
• EU & IMF bail out (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece & Spain)
• High Debt + Austerity Measures = Limited Growth
European banking Crisis
• Troubled credit: over $1 trillion in default loans.
• China's growth slowdown
• Oil Prices
• Negative interest rates affect Bank Stocks
• Half the size of the country’s annual economic output.
Migrant Crisis
• Change in population / income distribution
• EU Budget allocation; health & humanitarian expenditure

15. Pathways to Sustainability
Global Projections for Shipping
GlobalTrade (2000-2015)

16. Center for Logistics and Transportation Policy
(Research & Training)
Prof. Maria G. Burns, Lead Auditor, HSQE
US Coast Guard Aux. Hon. Member
Director, Center for Logistics &Transportation Policy
University of Houston | College of Technology
Lead of Education &WorkforceTransition,
Center for Borders,Trade and Immigration Research
A Dept. of Homeland Security Center of Excellence
Office: 713-743-1194 | Cell: 832-663-2746 |
mburns2@uh.edu | www.tech.uh.edu
Thank You !