The document discusses several studies related to assessing dynamic risk factors for parolees and offenders. It finds that parole officers can achieve moderate to high accuracy in predicting recidivism when assessing dynamic risk factors, even with limited tools. Multiple reassessments of dynamic risk over time provide better predictions than a single pre-release assessment. Studies also found parole officers focus more on superficial engagement than targeting criminogenic needs and using cognitive behavioral techniques, as associated with reduced recidivism. The document introduces a structured tool called DRAOR for assessing dynamic risk, acute risk, and protective factors.
Assessing and managing risk for violence among juveniles is an important forensic task. Clinical judgement is never sufficient for this important job. This presentation outlines methods of assessing and managing risk of violence among young people.
Dr. Amy Delgado - Risk Perception, Disease Reporting, and Cooperation With Em...John Blue
Risk Perception, Disease Reporting, and Cooperation With Emergency Response - Amy Delgado, DVM, Veterinary Epidemiologist, Center for Epidemiology and Animal Health, USDA, APHIS, VS, STAS, from the 2014 NIAA Annual Conference titled 'The Precautionary Principle: How Agriculture Will Thrive', March 31 - April 2, 2014, Omaha, NE, USA.
More presentations at http://www.trufflemedia.com/agmedia/conference/2014_niaa_how_animal_agriculture_will_thrive
In this module, you will learn about the controversies surrounding.docxjaggernaoma
In this module, you will learn about the controversies surrounding psychological testing and specialized evaluations.
There are times when the expertise of psychology professionals and mental health professionals is used to protect both clients and society. This use of expertise calls for sensitive evaluation procedures fraught with risk for psychology professionals and mental health evaluators. The risk arises because opinion may be mistaken for fact, and this can result in unfair sentencing or lawsuits against the evaluator if the sensitive information is misused or misinterpreted in any way by third parties.
In a forensic setting, recommendations are made to assess and determine dangerousness, risk for recidivism, and the potential for future violence. These specialized evaluations require appropriate training and the administration of psychological tests designed to measure specific traits. The instruments designed to measure violence and dangerousness are surrounded by controversy because of their limited ability to assess risks beyond reasonable certainty. While they are often useful in yielding information about specific personality traits, no test can conclusively predict how and when an individual will act in any given situation. Therefore, these instruments are often the center of controversy in courts, particularly among defense attorneys. Psychological evaluations are defensible only to a certain degree. No matter what types of or how many valid instruments psychology professionals or mental health professionals use in the forensic assessment, the results will likely be viewed as the opinion of the examiner in a court of law. This leaves room for holes to be punched into theories of both the defense and the prosecution. It also reinforces the fact that you must obtain expertise through experience and training if you plan to conduct evaluations for use in the court or the legal system. The instruments will not be subject to a cross-examination as much as the evaluators who use them.
An additional factor subject to scrutiny in the legal system is the appropriateness of tests used on clients fitting certain racial, cultural, ethnic, and sexual orientation demographics if they are not represented by the norms on which the psychological tests were developed. While increasing efforts have been made recently by most test publishers to establish norms better matching race, culture, ethnicity, and sexual orientation, most major psychological instruments are still interpreted using standard norms and outdated representative populations. In addition, there is a controversy concerning what parameters of intelligence and developmental disability should be admissible in court. For example, if someone with moderate mental retardation commits murder and knows right from wrong, it is argued that the low intelligence of the individual is irrelevant in the case and should not influence sentencing. These scenarios are difficult to address with psycho.
Navigating Workplace Violence - A Managers GuideTom Huskerson
A manger's guide to understanding how workplace violence happens. This presentation offers various statistics and other information that helps managers identify and prevent workplace violence. This presentation shows how simple triggers can lead to horrendous events. Learning the escalation scale of potential violence helps to prevent violence in the workplace.
Step Into Security Webinar - Threat Assessments for K-12 & University CampusesKeith Harris
This Step Into Security webinar by LENSEC will provide principles for assessing threats on campus for K-12 schools and universities. We'll introduce techniques campus administrators may engage to prevent threats.
The webinar features security expert Gary L. Sigrist, Jr. as our panelist. Gary is a former educator and law enforcement officer. As a professional expert, he brings a wealth of knowledge and experience working with school faculty and staff. Gary is the president and CEO of Safeguard Risk Solutions. The company helps its clients identify vulnerabilities, plan accordingly, train thoroughly and respond effectively.
Webinar Agenda:
•Threat Assessment Principles
•Facts About Targeted Attacks
•Five Phases Of An Active Shooter Incident
•Prevention Of The Threat
•Assessing Mental Health Risk
•Profiling For Potential Threats
You can find this and other webinars covering physical security and life safety topics on LENSEC's website: http://bit.ly/StepIntoSecurityWebinarArchive
Share this info with your colleagues and invite them to join us.
Explains the process by which we receive, interpret, analyze, remember and use information about the social world. Also attempts to explain the process of attribution and common errors we often commit in social perception.
Explanations for DelinquencyA Brief Introduction to Soci.docxSANSKAR20
Explanations for Delinquency
A Brief Introduction to Sociological Theory
Theory Without Panic!A simple definition of theory:Theories are nothing more than explanations for how 2 or more phenomena are related to each other.We all apply theories every dayFor example, we explain “getting wet” by the falling rainScientific theory must be falsifiable:This means that it must be stated in such a way that it can be tested with empirical evidence;This evidence provides a litmus test--it either supports the theory or it fails to support the theoryIf supported, or verified, the theory gains credibility; if not supported, or falsified, the theory must be revised.
What Causes Delinquency?What propels youths to commit delinquency?Complex interplay of a variety of biological, genetic, and environmental factors Further complicated by various reactions to environmental factorsWhy do only a few individuals who experience the same environments as many others actually commit crime?
Criminological theories provide a scientific way to approach and understand why people commit crime
Criminological ParadigmsClassical School TheoriesFocus on individual free will and our ability to make choices as the central explanation for committing delinquency/crime
Positive School TheoriesEmbraces determinism and scientific method: Recognizes the role of forces that individuals cannot control or may not be aware of on crime and the role of science to discover what these factors areThe positive school has 3 basic approaches: biological, psychological, and sociological
Theories Within Classical School Deterrence TheoryCertainty, severity, and celerityGeneral and specificRational Choice TheoryDecision to commit crime involves weighing the costs and benefits associated with that crimeBounded rationalityRoutine ActivitiesFocuses on the opportunity for crime to occurInteraction of the following: suitable targets, absence of capable guardians, and presence of motivated offenders
Positive School—Biological TheoriesGenetic transmission of criminal tendenciesHormonal imbalancesNeurological dysfunctionDevelopmental Theory (Biosocial Theories)
Positive School—Psychological TheoriesIntelligence—IQCrimePersonality types--SomatotypesPsychodynamic Theory (Freud & psychic phenomenon)Underdeveloped/Overdeveloped SuperegoBasis for Antisocial Personalities & ImpulsivityBehavioral Theory (Skinner & measurable events)Used as basis for Social Learning Theory
Positive School—Sociological Theories Social Structure TheoriesSocial disorganizationAnomie/StrainSocial Process TheoriesDifferential Association/Learning TheorySocial Control TheorySocial Conflict Labeling and Stigma
What Do We Know About Offenders?Small group of offenders (6-25%) are responsible for majority of crimeThere is a pattern of offending that ultimately defines subgroups of offenders Serious: Commit serious property crimeViolent: Commit serious violent crimeChronic: Commit 4 or more offenses of any typeSer ...
Assessing and managing risk for violence among juveniles is an important forensic task. Clinical judgement is never sufficient for this important job. This presentation outlines methods of assessing and managing risk of violence among young people.
Dr. Amy Delgado - Risk Perception, Disease Reporting, and Cooperation With Em...John Blue
Risk Perception, Disease Reporting, and Cooperation With Emergency Response - Amy Delgado, DVM, Veterinary Epidemiologist, Center for Epidemiology and Animal Health, USDA, APHIS, VS, STAS, from the 2014 NIAA Annual Conference titled 'The Precautionary Principle: How Agriculture Will Thrive', March 31 - April 2, 2014, Omaha, NE, USA.
More presentations at http://www.trufflemedia.com/agmedia/conference/2014_niaa_how_animal_agriculture_will_thrive
In this module, you will learn about the controversies surrounding.docxjaggernaoma
In this module, you will learn about the controversies surrounding psychological testing and specialized evaluations.
There are times when the expertise of psychology professionals and mental health professionals is used to protect both clients and society. This use of expertise calls for sensitive evaluation procedures fraught with risk for psychology professionals and mental health evaluators. The risk arises because opinion may be mistaken for fact, and this can result in unfair sentencing or lawsuits against the evaluator if the sensitive information is misused or misinterpreted in any way by third parties.
In a forensic setting, recommendations are made to assess and determine dangerousness, risk for recidivism, and the potential for future violence. These specialized evaluations require appropriate training and the administration of psychological tests designed to measure specific traits. The instruments designed to measure violence and dangerousness are surrounded by controversy because of their limited ability to assess risks beyond reasonable certainty. While they are often useful in yielding information about specific personality traits, no test can conclusively predict how and when an individual will act in any given situation. Therefore, these instruments are often the center of controversy in courts, particularly among defense attorneys. Psychological evaluations are defensible only to a certain degree. No matter what types of or how many valid instruments psychology professionals or mental health professionals use in the forensic assessment, the results will likely be viewed as the opinion of the examiner in a court of law. This leaves room for holes to be punched into theories of both the defense and the prosecution. It also reinforces the fact that you must obtain expertise through experience and training if you plan to conduct evaluations for use in the court or the legal system. The instruments will not be subject to a cross-examination as much as the evaluators who use them.
An additional factor subject to scrutiny in the legal system is the appropriateness of tests used on clients fitting certain racial, cultural, ethnic, and sexual orientation demographics if they are not represented by the norms on which the psychological tests were developed. While increasing efforts have been made recently by most test publishers to establish norms better matching race, culture, ethnicity, and sexual orientation, most major psychological instruments are still interpreted using standard norms and outdated representative populations. In addition, there is a controversy concerning what parameters of intelligence and developmental disability should be admissible in court. For example, if someone with moderate mental retardation commits murder and knows right from wrong, it is argued that the low intelligence of the individual is irrelevant in the case and should not influence sentencing. These scenarios are difficult to address with psycho.
Navigating Workplace Violence - A Managers GuideTom Huskerson
A manger's guide to understanding how workplace violence happens. This presentation offers various statistics and other information that helps managers identify and prevent workplace violence. This presentation shows how simple triggers can lead to horrendous events. Learning the escalation scale of potential violence helps to prevent violence in the workplace.
Step Into Security Webinar - Threat Assessments for K-12 & University CampusesKeith Harris
This Step Into Security webinar by LENSEC will provide principles for assessing threats on campus for K-12 schools and universities. We'll introduce techniques campus administrators may engage to prevent threats.
The webinar features security expert Gary L. Sigrist, Jr. as our panelist. Gary is a former educator and law enforcement officer. As a professional expert, he brings a wealth of knowledge and experience working with school faculty and staff. Gary is the president and CEO of Safeguard Risk Solutions. The company helps its clients identify vulnerabilities, plan accordingly, train thoroughly and respond effectively.
Webinar Agenda:
•Threat Assessment Principles
•Facts About Targeted Attacks
•Five Phases Of An Active Shooter Incident
•Prevention Of The Threat
•Assessing Mental Health Risk
•Profiling For Potential Threats
You can find this and other webinars covering physical security and life safety topics on LENSEC's website: http://bit.ly/StepIntoSecurityWebinarArchive
Share this info with your colleagues and invite them to join us.
Explains the process by which we receive, interpret, analyze, remember and use information about the social world. Also attempts to explain the process of attribution and common errors we often commit in social perception.
Explanations for DelinquencyA Brief Introduction to Soci.docxSANSKAR20
Explanations for Delinquency
A Brief Introduction to Sociological Theory
Theory Without Panic!A simple definition of theory:Theories are nothing more than explanations for how 2 or more phenomena are related to each other.We all apply theories every dayFor example, we explain “getting wet” by the falling rainScientific theory must be falsifiable:This means that it must be stated in such a way that it can be tested with empirical evidence;This evidence provides a litmus test--it either supports the theory or it fails to support the theoryIf supported, or verified, the theory gains credibility; if not supported, or falsified, the theory must be revised.
What Causes Delinquency?What propels youths to commit delinquency?Complex interplay of a variety of biological, genetic, and environmental factors Further complicated by various reactions to environmental factorsWhy do only a few individuals who experience the same environments as many others actually commit crime?
Criminological theories provide a scientific way to approach and understand why people commit crime
Criminological ParadigmsClassical School TheoriesFocus on individual free will and our ability to make choices as the central explanation for committing delinquency/crime
Positive School TheoriesEmbraces determinism and scientific method: Recognizes the role of forces that individuals cannot control or may not be aware of on crime and the role of science to discover what these factors areThe positive school has 3 basic approaches: biological, psychological, and sociological
Theories Within Classical School Deterrence TheoryCertainty, severity, and celerityGeneral and specificRational Choice TheoryDecision to commit crime involves weighing the costs and benefits associated with that crimeBounded rationalityRoutine ActivitiesFocuses on the opportunity for crime to occurInteraction of the following: suitable targets, absence of capable guardians, and presence of motivated offenders
Positive School—Biological TheoriesGenetic transmission of criminal tendenciesHormonal imbalancesNeurological dysfunctionDevelopmental Theory (Biosocial Theories)
Positive School—Psychological TheoriesIntelligence—IQCrimePersonality types--SomatotypesPsychodynamic Theory (Freud & psychic phenomenon)Underdeveloped/Overdeveloped SuperegoBasis for Antisocial Personalities & ImpulsivityBehavioral Theory (Skinner & measurable events)Used as basis for Social Learning Theory
Positive School—Sociological Theories Social Structure TheoriesSocial disorganizationAnomie/StrainSocial Process TheoriesDifferential Association/Learning TheorySocial Control TheorySocial Conflict Labeling and Stigma
What Do We Know About Offenders?Small group of offenders (6-25%) are responsible for majority of crimeThere is a pattern of offending that ultimately defines subgroups of offenders Serious: Commit serious property crimeViolent: Commit serious violent crimeChronic: Commit 4 or more offenses of any typeSer ...
Similar to N Wilson, Dynamic Risk and Protective Assessment (20)
Recomendações da OMS sobre cuidados maternos e neonatais para uma experiência pós-natal positiva.
Em consonância com os ODS – Objetivos do Desenvolvimento Sustentável e a Estratégia Global para a Saúde das Mulheres, Crianças e Adolescentes, e aplicando uma abordagem baseada nos direitos humanos, os esforços de cuidados pós-natais devem expandir-se para além da cobertura e da simples sobrevivência, de modo a incluir cuidados de qualidade.
Estas diretrizes visam melhorar a qualidade dos cuidados pós-natais essenciais e de rotina prestados às mulheres e aos recém-nascidos, com o objetivo final de melhorar a saúde e o bem-estar materno e neonatal.
Uma “experiência pós-natal positiva” é um resultado importante para todas as mulheres que dão à luz e para os seus recém-nascidos, estabelecendo as bases para a melhoria da saúde e do bem-estar a curto e longo prazo. Uma experiência pós-natal positiva é definida como aquela em que as mulheres, pessoas que gestam, os recém-nascidos, os casais, os pais, os cuidadores e as famílias recebem informação consistente, garantia e apoio de profissionais de saúde motivados; e onde um sistema de saúde flexível e com recursos reconheça as necessidades das mulheres e dos bebês e respeite o seu contexto cultural.
Estas diretrizes consolidadas apresentam algumas recomendações novas e já bem fundamentadas sobre cuidados pós-natais de rotina para mulheres e neonatos que recebem cuidados no pós-parto em unidades de saúde ou na comunidade, independentemente dos recursos disponíveis.
É fornecido um conjunto abrangente de recomendações para cuidados durante o período puerperal, com ênfase nos cuidados essenciais que todas as mulheres e recém-nascidos devem receber, e com a devida atenção à qualidade dos cuidados; isto é, a entrega e a experiência do cuidado recebido. Estas diretrizes atualizam e ampliam as recomendações da OMS de 2014 sobre cuidados pós-natais da mãe e do recém-nascido e complementam as atuais diretrizes da OMS sobre a gestão de complicações pós-natais.
O estabelecimento da amamentação e o manejo das principais intercorrências é contemplada.
Recomendamos muito.
Vamos discutir essas recomendações no nosso curso de pós-graduação em Aleitamento no Instituto Ciclos.
Esta publicação só está disponível em inglês até o momento.
Prof. Marcus Renato de Carvalho
www.agostodourado.com
Muktapishti is a traditional Ayurvedic preparation made from Shoditha Mukta (Purified Pearl), is believed to help regulate thyroid function and reduce symptoms of hyperthyroidism due to its cooling and balancing properties. Clinical evidence on its efficacy remains limited, necessitating further research to validate its therapeutic benefits.
Integrating Ayurveda into Parkinson’s Management: A Holistic ApproachAyurveda ForAll
Explore the benefits of combining Ayurveda with conventional Parkinson's treatments. Learn how a holistic approach can manage symptoms, enhance well-being, and balance body energies. Discover the steps to safely integrate Ayurvedic practices into your Parkinson’s care plan, including expert guidance on diet, herbal remedies, and lifestyle modifications.
Basavarajeeyam is a Sreshta Sangraha grantha (Compiled book ), written by Neelkanta kotturu Basavaraja Virachita. It contains 25 Prakaranas, First 24 Chapters related to Rogas& 25th to Rasadravyas.
NVBDCP.pptx Nation vector borne disease control programSapna Thakur
NVBDCP was launched in 2003-2004 . Vector-Borne Disease: Disease that results from an infection transmitted to humans and other animals by blood-feeding arthropods, such as mosquitoes, ticks, and fleas. Examples of vector-borne diseases include Dengue fever, West Nile Virus, Lyme disease, and malaria.
Knee anatomy and clinical tests 2024.pdfvimalpl1234
This includes all relevant anatomy and clinical tests compiled from standard textbooks, Campbell,netter etc..It is comprehensive and best suited for orthopaedicians and orthopaedic residents.
Here is the updated list of Top Best Ayurvedic medicine for Gas and Indigestion and those are Gas-O-Go Syp for Dyspepsia | Lavizyme Syrup for Acidity | Yumzyme Hepatoprotective Capsules etc
11. Factors considered in DRAOR Social support Interpersonal relationships Attachment with others Living situation Social control Employment Sense of entitlement Cost/Benefit Negative mood Problem-solving High expectations Opportunity/access to victims Impulse Control Prosocial identity Anger/hostility Attitude to authority Responsive to advice Substance abuse Peer associations Protective Acute Stable
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16. Total STABLE Risk / 12 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem Connected/concerned about others (0)- Callous/indifferent towards others (2) Attachment with Others 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem Recognition of their limitations (0) -Inflated sense of self worth (2) Sense of Entitlement 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem Ability to make good decisions (0) – No consideration of consequences (2) Problem-Solving 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem Autonomous/self monitoring (0) – Highly impulsive (2) Self-Regulation 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem Prosocial attitudes (0) – Antagonistic attitudes (2) Attitudes Towards Authority 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem Has only prosocial peers (0) – Has only antisocial peers (2) Peer Associations SCORE (omit if unknown) SCORING CRITERIA INDICATOR STABLE RISK INDICATORS Characteristics associated with risk and capable of changing over months or years.
17. Total ACUTE Risk / 14 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem Stable and positive living situation (0) – Instability/Lack of accommodations (2) Living Situation 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem In a stable healthy relationship (0) – Conflicted relationship (2) Interpersonal Relationships 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem Maintaining a job (0) – Unemployed (2) Employment 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem No evidence of depression/anxiety (0) – Marked presence of depression/anxiety (2) Negative Mood 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem Avoidance of preferred victims (0) – Access to preferred victims (2) Opportunity/Access to Victims 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem Absence of anger/hostility (0) – Marked presence of anger/hostility (2) Anger/Hostility 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem Maintaining sobriety/social use (0) – Problematic substance abuse (2) Substance Abuse SCORE (omit if unknown) SCORING CRITERIA INDICATOR ACUTE RISK INDICATORS Characteristics associated with risk and capable of changing in the short term (<1 month).
18. Total PROTECTIVE / 12 2 Definite asset 1 Slight/Possible asset 0 Not an asset Conformity and compliance with prosocial others; Strong internalized connection/bonds. Social Control 2 Definite asset 1 Slight/Possible asset 0 Not an asset Evidence that meaningful and accessible prosocial supports exist. Social Support 2 Definite asset 1 Slight/Possible asset 0 Not an asset Evidence that rewards of prosocial behaviour outweigh those of procriminal behaviour. Costs/Benefits 2 Definite asset 1 Slight/Possible asset 0 Not an asset Individual, family, and/or community have high expectations of success. High Expectations 2 Definite asset 1 Slight/Possible asset 0 Not an asset Legitimately views self as no longer criminally oriented with behavioural examples. Prosocial Identity 2 Definite asset 1 Slight/Possible asset 0 Not an asset Follows direction from prosocial peers, partners, supervisor, etc.. Responsive to Advice SCORE (omit if unknown) SCORING CRITERIA INDICATOR PROTECTIVE FACTORS Characteristics that may buffer risk.
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21. Example Peter- Stable 11/12 Stable Risk Factor Total 2 Definite Problem Attachment with Others 2 Definite Problem Sense of Entitlement 2 Definite Problem Problem Solving 2 Definite Problem Impulse Control 2 Definite Problem Attitudes Towards Authority 1 Slight/Possible problem Peer Associations
22. Peter- Acute 11/14 Acute Risk Factor Total 1 Slight/Possible problem Living Situation 2 Definite problem Interpersonal Relationships 2 Definite problem Employment 1 Slight/Possible problem Negative Mood 2 Definite problem Opportunity/Access to Victims 2 Definite problem Anger/Hostility 1 Slight/Possible problem Substance Abuse Acute Risk Factor
23. Peter- Protective 2/12 Protective Factor Total 0 Not an asset Social Control 1 Slight/Possible asset Social Support 0 Not an asset Costs/Benefits 0 Not an asset High Expectations 1 Slight/Possible asset Prosocial Identity 0 Not an asset Responsive to Advice Protective Factor
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31. Correlations between offender age, static risk, and initial scores on DRAOR dynamic risk and protective factors ** p < .01 1.00 -0.56** -0.67** -0.24** -0.081 Protective --- 1.00 0.67** 0.24** -0.046 Acute --- --- 1.00 0.27** -0.085 Stable --- --- --- 1.00 -0.37** RoC*RoI --- --- --- --- 1.00 Age Protective Acute Stable RoC*RoI Age Variables
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33. Discriminant Functional Analysis- Any Reoffending .526 Acute -.537 Protective -.558 Age .675 Stable .752 RoC*RoI Function Structure Matrix .000 278 3 21.11 .814 Age 3 .000 279 2 28.40 .831 Stable 2 .000 280 1 37.46 .882 RoC*RoI 1 Sig. df2 df1 Statistic Statistic Entered Exact F Wilks' Lambda Step Variables Entered/Removed
34. Discriminant Functional Analysis- Any Reimprisonment .028 Age .246 RoC*RoI -.560 Protective .661 Stable 1.000 Acute 1 Function Structure Matrix 0.001 176 1 11.91 176 1 1 0.937 Acute 1 Sig. df2 df1 Statistic Exact F df3 df2 df1 Statistic Wilks' Lambda Entered Step Variables Entered/Removed
35. Repeat DRAOR Stable scrs and any reoffending .887 .686 .000 .051 .787 Stable 4 .890 .676 .000 .055 .783 Stable 3 .863 .647 .000 .055 .755 Stable 2 .816 .574 .002 .062 .695 Stable 1 Upper Bound Lower Bound Asymptotic 95% Confidence Interval Asymptotic Sig. b Std. Error Area Test Result Variable(s) Area Under the Curve
36. Repeat DRAOR Acute scrs and reimprisonment .883 .677 .003 .053 .780 Acute 3 .864 .648 .007 .055 .756 Acute 2 .911 .634 .004 .071 .772 Acute 1 Upper Bound Lower Bound Asymptotic 95% Confidence Interval Asymptotic Sig. b Std. Error Area Test Result Variable(s) Area Under the Curve
37. Repeat DRAOR Protective scrs and any reoffending .725 .526 .019 .051 .625 Protective3 .741 .545 .007 .050 .643 Protective2 .757 .555 .003 .052 .656 Protective1 Upper Bound Lower Bound Asymptotic 95% Confidence Interval Asymptotic Sig. Std. Error Area Test Result Variable(s) Area Under the Curve
40. Keystone Model Intervention/monitoring Target Selection Using DRAOR scenarios
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43. Connections for Peter’s keystone arch and assault on Rachel ???? Poor ability manage anger Pattern of bullying women Concern over relationship ending Uncertain about future Victim likely be partner Will use knife if threatened Substance abuse- binging? Wants to be dad and have family
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47. Family (other than marriage or parenting): How do you want to interact with your family or whanau members? What type of sister or brother do you want to be? What type of son or daughter do you want to be? John reported that he has a younger brother and sister but had little contact with most of his family for some years. His parents who he said were violent and abusive died some years ago, John said that prior to their death he was able to reconcile with them both. However, he does have contact with his aunt and uncle who live near his home marae and he had intended to live near them after release but the address was not approved. John has also retained links to his home marae and has a history of effective engagement with interventions delivered from Maori organisations. How important is this area to you? 0 = not at all important 1 = moderately important 2 = very important Overall, how satisfied are you with the quality and depth of your experience in this area of life? 0 = not at all satisfied 1 = moderately satisfied 2 = very satisfied How often have you done something to move you forward in this area during the last week or since last reporting? 0 = no action 1 = once or twice 2 = three or four times 3 = more than four times Intention : To keep in touch with my Aunt and Uncle by phone and to re-engage with my younger brother and sister Barriers :?????
48. Parenting: What type of parent do you want to be? How do you want to interact with your children? John has a 7 year old son with whom he has not had contact since the boy was 2. He has consistently wanted contact and grieves for not being in his son’s life but says his son would not know him now but hopes that in the future he can build a relationship. John is excited about a possible parenting role with his new partners 2 year old son, sees this as a another chance to be a dad. He is determined to not be like his father was to him and for children he parents to feel safe and supported. Importance : 0 = not at all important 1 = moderately important 2 = very important Satisfaction : 0 = not at all satisfied 1 = moderately satisfied 2 = very satisfied Actions (last week/reporting): 0 = no action 1 = once or twice 2 = three or four times 3 = more than four times Intention : To have frequent contact with his partners boy and to play with him and help with his care Barriers : ????
49. LIFE COMPASS- ‘John’ 2 Just started new relationship with ‘Mary ’ Excited about parenting partners 2 year old boy. Second chance 3 2 3 1 0 No/little contact immediate family, some contact extended whanau One close friend prohibited contact, gang loyalty impt 1 0 2 3 Aging, watching weight wants to weight train, needs training partner Past affiliation with Pentecostal Church, sees self as Christian 0 0 Volunteered for his local Marae in past Ngati Whatua 1 0 2 1 Physical, immediate reward, own business 0 0 Doesn’t like classroom learning, hands on Limited, likes league /gang connections 1 1
In recent years, it has been recognised that many of the current risk assessment tools are not designed to detect changes in risk necessary for managing ongoing offending and to respond to imminent harm. The primary roles of probation officers includes sentence compliance, risk management, and risk reduction. The Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (DRAOR; Serin & Mailloux, 2008) is a preliminary 19 item dynamic risk (and protective) assessment instrument developed to assist probation officers to systematically review changes in an offender’s community situation with reference to a number of viable risk scenarios. The three domains reflected in the scale are empirically related to risk of re-offending (Stable and Acute) and desistance (Protective). The New Zealand DRAOR research had three aims. First to establish the validity and reliability of the DRAOR with a large sample of paroled offenders in a New Zealand community, second to determine how the DRAOR may (or may not) inform probation officers’ on parole failure, and third, to establish whether the use of the DRAOR contributes to improved parole management decision-making with offenders. Six specialist probation prison release teams located around New Zealand applied the DRAOR at each contact in their management of parolees over a six month period (N = 200). Analysis of the reliability of DRAOR scale scores will be presented as well as the relationship of these scores across time. The predictive validity using parole failure (prison recall, reoffending) will also be presented. The implications of the use of DRAOR in improving probation management and risk reduction in paroled offenders will be discussed.
Examining adherence to RNR in Manitoba probation 62 probation officers and up to 154 offenders 65% adult; 35% young offenders 74% men; 26% women 211 audiotapes What did we find? First question – follow the risk principle?
Targeting criminogenic needs works!
In relation to RNR principles: This (Manitoba) study… POs spent too much time with low risk cases Average interview length = 22 minutes. Didn’t discuss criminogenic needs often enough
There is a negative relationship between dynamic and static risk factors and those deemed protective. There is a positive relationship between acute and stable risk factors, the acute factors are the children of the stable factors , too much focus on the children ignores the influence of the parents and visa versa!
The scale is organized into 3 specific domains: stable risk indicators, acute risk indicators, and protective factors. It is important to note that the terms stable and acute indicators have been successfully used in the area of sex offenders (Hanson, Harris, Scott & Helmus, 2007). These dynamic indicators augment static risk estimates. Some authors have suggested static risk estimates the likelihood of re-offending whereas dynamic risk estimates indicate when that person might re-offend. Further, this scale incorporates protective factors, which are clearly important in understanding crime desistance and risk management, but have rarely been used in risk assessment research to date.
Overall summary slide for DRAOR sub scales Draw attention to how the items or factors interact, for example, a high score for entitlement could also see high scores for anger and hostility and low scores for being responsive to advice
However, the ‘alignment’ of significant variables indicates that the process of desistance is complex and not well understood. Internal variables = things like attitudes to advice External variables = things like social support
Keep in mind that this is new research; as such the actual score has not been empirically related to likelihood or imminence of re-offending. Repeat the process: not more often than every 2 weeks but at least monthly Maintain the protocols until instructed on how to send them to the researchers.
Start with a score of 1 and then seek evidence to raise or lower this initial score . This helps to reduce the ‘nice bad person’ bias. If you cannot go down or up then stay with a score of 1. Continue in other contacts to move the scores based on reliable evidence
In some case the most likely and the worst case or more serious risk scenario could be the same
Staff may express anxiety over rating their concern, emphasis that this is a concern/level of risk at that time based on available information . It is important in supported decision making that the probation officer weigh the DRAOR information in relation to the offenders risk scenarios and decide on a level of concern/risk and this decision leads to actions to manage and reduce risk. Stops one size fits all approaches and allows the probation officer to respond in an evidence informed manner
Normal distributions that scores vary across offenders DRAOR scores responded to changes by offenders DRAOR items were easily understood and easy to apply with minimal practice Importantly DRAOR added value to the probation officer role
Predictive validity means is there a relevance between the DRAOR scores and reoffending and there is, higher scores on Stable and Acute scales indicate higher risk and higher protective scales do reduce risk.