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.
2DIVERGENCE
Our Annual Outlook Theme in pictures
DIVERGENCE TO SET TONE FOR 2020
Off late, several polarizing trends have been observed on the Global as well as Domestic
front which are hard to overlook. Such diverging trends can be seen in many segments of
the economy like Economy Vs. Markets, Value Vs. Growth, Yields of G-Sec/AAA Vs. AA/A,
Headline Inflation Vs. Food Inflation, etc. These divergences can be managed by investing in
themes that are at their inflection or turnaround points. This document aims to delve deeper
in assessing such divergent trends and ways to navigate through the same.
.
3
Rear-View Mirror: Glancing Through 2019
(Equity)
.
4Source: Morgan Stanley, Data as of Dec 18,2019. PSU – Public Sector Undertaking, FM – Finance Minister, FPI – Foreign Portfolio Investor, MPC – Monetary Policy Committee, GDP – Gross Domestic Product,
Jan/19
Feb/19
Mar/19
Apr/19
May/19
Jun/19
Jul/19
Aug/19
Sep/19
Oct/19
Nov/19
Dec/19
35,000
36,000
37,000
38,000
39,000
40,000
41,000
42,000
S&PBSESensexLevels
Interim Budget
F20 presented
Re-election of incumbent
Govt. with a clear
mandate in India
F20 Union Budget: INR
700 Bn Recapitalization
of PSU banks
US announces
tariff hikes on
Chinese Imports
FM announces
withdrawal of
Enhanced Surcharge
of FPI and Domestic
Investors
US Federal Reserve
announcement to buy
$60 bnT-Bills/month
Increased
Tension in
Kashmir
MPC cuts GDP growth
estimate for F2020 to
6.1% from 6.9%
Telecom operators
announce tariff hikes
from December
GDP growth
slumps to
4.5%
Closure of Phase
1 US- China Trade
deal
Corporate Tax Cut
announced by the FM
Recap: Our Calls In 2019
SIP – Systematic Investment Plan, STP – Systematic Transfer Plan, YTM – Yield to Maturity
Our Calls Rationale
Invest in Asset Allocation Schemes
Invest in Value & Special Situations theme
Positive on Smallcap & Multicap space
Staggered investment in the form of SIP/STP
Buy on Accrual Schemes
Markets expected to remain volatile
Divergence between Value & Growth &
probable special situations opportunities
Smallcap valuations reasonable post
recent corrections
Mid cycle. Recommend accumulating
equities
Valuations (Repo minus YTM) attractive
RECAP
.
5
AA S S E T M A N A G E M N T
Growth of ICICI Prudential Asset Allocator Fund
(FoF)
.
ICICI Prudential Asset
Allocator Fund (FoF)
began its journey with
an AUM of 6.7 Crs in
Jan’19 and closed at
6,002 Crs in Dec-19
Data as of Dec 31, 2019. Source: MFI Explorer. The AUM movement is illustrated since the scheme’s re-positioning i.e. Feb 4, 2019. MFI Explorer is a tool provided by ICRA Online Ltd. For their standard disclaimer please visit
http://www.icraonline.com/legal/standard-disclaimer.html. ICICI Prudential Asset Allocator Fund (FoF) (erstwhile ICICI Prudential Advisor Series - Conservative Fund), is an ended fund of funds scheme investing in equity oriented schemes, debt oriented schemes
and gold ETFs/schemes. The scheme was re-positioned on Feb 4, 2019.
6
18
315
765
1,234
1,720
2,340
3,041
3,569
4,372
5,228
6,002
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Scheme AUM Movement (INR Crs – approx. figures)
AA S S E T M A N A G E M N T
2020 – Invest your way to Financial Freedom
through “ICICI Prudential FREEDOM SIP”
.
Receive Your Monthly Payout through SWPGrow Your Wealth through SIP
Switch to Target
Scheme
SIP – Systematic Investment Plan, SWP – Systematic Withdrawal Plan. ICICI Prudential Freedom SIP is an optional feature offered by ICICI Prudential AMC. This feature does not in any way give assurance of the performance of
any of the Schemes of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund or provide any guarantee of withdrawals through SWP mode. Freedom SIP allows investors to switch the SIP investments to a target scheme, post completion of the SIP tenure
& monthly SWP will continue from the target scheme. 7
GLOBAL MARKETS IN 2019
.
Global Indices Performance in CY2019
9
Germany - DAX Index; China - SSE Composite Index; France - CAC 40 Index; Japan - Nikkei; Eurozone - Euronext 100; Hong Kong - HangSeng; US - Dow Jones; Singapore - Strait Times; Russia - RTS Index; Indonesia - Jakarta Composite Index; U.K. - FTSE; South Korea - Kospi;
Brazil - Ibovespa Sao Paulo Index; Indonesia – Jakarta Composite Index; Switzerland – Swiss Market Index; Taiwan – Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation; India – S&P BSE Sensex; Returns in % terms. GDP – Gross Domestic Product. Data Source: MFI & ACEMF; Returns are
absolute returns for the index calculated between December 31, 2018 – December 26, 2019. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Map source: mapchart.net.Map not to scale. This map has been used for design and representational purpose only, it does not
depict the geographical boundaries of the country. These do not conform to the external boundaries of India recognized by the Survey of India. MFI Explorer is a tool provided by ICRA Online Ltd. For their standard disclaimer please visit http://www.icraonline.com/legal/standard-
disclaimer.html. Source of US GDP data: Bureau of Economic Analysis (US Dept. of Commerce).
.
44.0
27.5 27.2 26.0
23.4 23.2 22.7 20.6 19.5
14.1 13.4
7.8 7.7
5.0
2.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
Russia
France
Switzerla
nd
Germany
Taiwan
Brazil
US
China
Japan
India
UK
Hong
Kong
South
Korea
Singapore
Indonesia
Returns(%)
Returns Performance - 2019
US Fed’s Double Tightening and Global Growth
US Fed’s double tightening (rate hike until Dec-18 + Balance Sheet Contraction until July-19),
squeezed global liquidity thereby hampering Global growth
Source: Edelweiss Securities Ltd. Data as of Sep 30, 2019. DM – Developed Markets, EM – Emerging Markets. IIP – Index of Industrial Production, MMA – Monthly Moving Average
3700
3900
4100
4300
4500
1.10
1.40
1.70
2.00
2.30
2.60
Sep 17 Mar 18 Sep 18 Mar 19 Sep 19
(USDBn)
(%)
US Fed Rate Hike & Balance Sheet Expansion
Fed funds rate Fed Balance Sheet - RHS
1
4
7
10
(2)
0
2
4
Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep 18 Sep 19
(3MMA,%YoY)
(3MMA,%YoY)
Global growth has hit lows
World IIP DM IIP EM IIP (RHS)
.
10
INDIAN
EQUITY
MARKETS
IN 2019
.
Largecap, Midcap, Smallcap Returns
S&P BSE Sensex
Closed at 41,164
S&P BSE Midcap
Closed at 14,801
S&P BSE Smallcap
Closed at 13,435
28%
6%
14%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2017 2018 2019
S&P BSE Sensex Returns
48%
-13%
-4%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
2017 2018 2019
S&P BSE Midcap Returns
60%
-24%
-9%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2017 2018 2019
S&P BSE Smallcap Returns
Smallcaps and Midcaps continued their underperformance relative to Largecaps for the second year in a row
Source: BSEIndia; Data as of Dec 26, 2019; Past performance may or may not be sustained in future
.
12
Rate sensitive sectors performed well during 2019
25 23 22 21 18
13 12
10
-2 -2 -4 -5
-10 -11 -12 -13-16
-6
4
14
24
34
Realty
Energy
CD
Bankex
Finance
Telecom
IT
Oil&Gas
FMCG
Power
HC
BasicMat.
CG
Auto
Metal
Infra
Returns(%)
Sector Performance
Realty and Energy
were leaders
whereas Metals
and Infra were
major laggards
All indices are of S&P BSE and carry the prefix of S&P BSE; Abbreviated CD - S&P BSE Consumer Durables; CG - S&P BSE Capital Goods; FMCG - S&P BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods; HC - S&P BSE Health Care; Infra. - S&P BSE India
Infrastructure; IT - S&P BSE Information Technology, NBFC – Non-banking Finance Companies. Data Source: MFI, ACEMF ; Returns are absolute returns for the TRI variant of the index calculated between December 31, 2018– December 27,
2019; Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. The sectors)/stock(s) mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in this
sector(s)/stock(s). MFI Explorer is a tool provided by ICRA Online Ltd. For their standard disclaimer please visit http://www.icraonline.com/legal/standard-disclaimer.html
.
13
FPI & DII Flows in 2019
FPI flows bounced back sharply post last year’s dismal flows
-30,000
-10,000
10,000
30,000
50,000
Jan-Mar2017
Apr-Jun2017
July-Sep2017
Oct-Dec2017
Jan-Mar2018
Apr-Jun2018
July-Sep2018
Oct-Dec2018
Jan-Mar2019
Apr-Jun2019
July-Sep2019
Oct-Dec2019
FPI & DII Net Flows (in Rs. Crs)
FPI Net Flows (in Rs. Crs) DII Net Flows (in Rs. Crs)
Source: NSDL, BSEIndia; Data as of Dec 26, 2019; FPI – Foreign Portfolio Investors; DII – Domestic Institutional Investors
.
14
MARKETS IN 2019 –
SOME RANDOM EVENTS
Unicorn Valuations
UNICORN IS A PRIVATELY HELD START-UP
COMPANY VALUED AT $1 BILLION
Many Unicorns in
the Venture Capital
space collapsed
recently
Source: Pitchbook
.
16
Japanization of Interest Rates
Total outstanding debt globally in negative yield zone is close to US $ 11 Trillion out of US $ 55 Trillion
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
OutstandingDebt($Tn)
Negative Yield ($ Trillion)
Source: Reuters, Data as of Dec 23, 2019
.
17
Passive Edge
The unravelling of stock pickers accelerated after the financial crisis, when investors flocked to low cost index funds.
More money is now being managed in passive than active US Equity Funds
Source: Reuters, Data as of Aug-19
.
4.1
4.2 4.2
4.4
4.1
4.3
4.4
4.2
3.9
4
4.1
4.3
4
4.3
4.4
4.3
3.8
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19
Active Vs. Passive Stock Funds AUM ($ Tn)
Active Stocks Funds ($ Trillion) Passive Stock Funds ($ Trillion)
18
Apple beats Energy
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Dec-17
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
Dec-19
Apple Marketcap Vs. S&P 500 Energy Index Marketcap ($ Tn)
Apple ($ Tn) S&P 500 Energy ($ Tn)
Apple’s share price
surged ~70% this
year which was more
than the Marketcap
of entire US energy
stocks put together
Source: Financial Times, Data as of Dec 26, 2019. The data is for illustration purpose to give a view of the market scenario and is not a recommendation of the stock
.
19
OUR EQUITY OUTLOOK CAPTURES
Select Diverging Trends
Positive and Negative Guiding Factors for the Markets in 2020
Market Checklist: Our 'VCTS' Framework
Investment Themes for 2020
Product Recommendations
.
20
SELECT
DIVERGING
TRENDS
.
Economy-Market Divergence
.
22GDP – Gross Domestic Product. Data as of Sep 30, 2019. Source: Edelweiss Securities, NSE
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
GDP
Nifty50Index
Nifty 50 Vs. GDP growth
Nifty 50 GDP
2%
4%
6%
8%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
May-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-19
Sep-19
GDP
Nifty50EarningsGrowth
Nifty 50 Earnings Growth Vs. GDP growth
Nifty Earnings Growth Real GDP Growth
Currently, markets do not represent the economy correctly. This divergence has existed since the last 3 years
Divergence –
Emerging Markets Vs. Developed Markets
.
Significant divergence between Emerging and Developed Markets clearly indicates investor preference for less risky assets
113
155
70
90
110
130
150
Dec-14
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Dec-17
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
Dec-19
Emerging Market Vs. Developed Market Indices
Emerging Markets Developed Markets
23
For Emerging Markets, MSCI Emerging Market Index Values have been considered. For Developed Markets, S&P 500 Index values have been considered. Prices have been re-based to 100. Data as of December 23, 2019. Source: Reuters.
Past performance may or may not sustain in future
Economic Divergence –
Consumption & Savings
Data is Calendar year data. Source: Kotak Securities
.
India’s growth in the
last 5 years was
fuelled primarily by
consumption which
was supported by
leverage and not
income growth
58
57
56
56 57
56
55
56 56
58
58
59
59
59
59
24 24
23
23
24
26
24 24
22
20
20
18
17 17
17
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019E
Private Consumption Vs. Household Savings
Private consumption/GDP (%, LHS) Household savings/GDP (%, RHS)
24
Index Divergence –
All time high markets Vs. Declining Share Prices
.
25
Baring few growth stocks, markets have broadly underperformed.
This makes ‘VALUE’ as a theme relatively attractive to ‘GROWTH’
43.1%
20.9%
6.2%
0.7%
-4.3%
-23.2%
-56.5%-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
Top10
Top11-20
Top21-50
Top51-100
101-250
251-500
>=501
Marketcap Change
(Since Feb 2018 till Dec 2019)
Nifty 50 Index gained 1409 points during the year out of which
below 10 stocks added 1652 points and the rest 40 stocks
gave negative contribution
Company Name
Returns Contribution
in Points
Reliance Industries Ltd 404
ICICI Bank Ltd 296
HDFC Bank Ltd 250
HDFC Ltd 177
Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd 144
Bharti Airtel Ltd 87
Bajaj Finance Ltd 87
TCS Ltd 86
Infosys Ltd 68
Axis Bank Ltd 53
Total Universe considered is 1690 listed stocks. Stocks are arranged in descending order as per Marketcap. Marketcap change is
considered for period between 28-Feb-18 and 20-Dec-19. Source: Capitaline.. Past performance may or may not sustain in future
Universe considered is Nifty 50 Index. Source: Capitaline. Returns are calculated between 1-Jan-2019 and 25-Dec-
2019. Past performance may or may not sustain in future.
The stocks mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these stocks
Index Divergence –
Value Vs. Growth
P/E – Price to Earnings, P/B: Price to Book. Ex – Excluding. Source : NSE, Capitaline, Data as of December 23, 2019. Past performance may or may not sustain in future
.
26
4.9
3.9
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.2
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
P/B(x)
Nifty 50 Index –
Nifty Top 10 P/B Vs. Nifty Bottom 40 P/B
Nifty 10 Ex Bottom 40 Nifty 40 Ex Top 10
P/E – Price to Earnings, P/B: Price to Book. Ex – Excluding. Source : NSE, Capitaline, Data as of December 23, 2019. Past performance may or may not sustain in future
38.5
26.3
20
25
30
35
40
45
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Nifty 50 Index –
Nifty Top 10 P/E Vs. Nifty Bottom 40 P/E
Nifty 10 Ex Bottom 40 Nifty 40 Ex Top 10
The narrow rally of Nifty 50 Index led to the polarization in index valuations
27Data as of December 2019. Source: ICICI Securities. Largecaps: top 100 Mcap companies, Midcaps – Next 150, Smallcaps – Next 250. Only profit making companies are considered.
0.6%
2.3%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
Dec-14
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Dec-17
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
Dec-19
Earnings Yield Spread of Mid and Smallcaps over Largecaps
Midcap Smallcap
Smallcaps are currently offering better Margin of Safety in terms of risk spread over Largecaps
Marketcap Divergence –
Earnings Yield Spreads over Largecaps
.
28
Marketcap Divergence –
Largecap, Midcap & Smallcap
Top 100 indicates top 100 companies by market capitalization,101-250 indicates next 150 companies by market cap and above 250 indicates 251st onwards by marketcap. Source : Edelweiss Securities, Data as of December 31,2019
Share in the Overall Market Cap (%)
Index 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Mar-19 Jun-19 Nov-19 Dec-19
Top-
100
79 75 74 71 79 77 78 79 78 81 75 74 72 65 70 73 73 73.8 73.7
101-
250
11 12 12 13 11 12 13 13 14 13 14 15 15 16 16 16 16 15.7 15.8
Above
250
11 13 14 16 10 11 9 8 8 6 10 11 14 18 14 12 11.7 10.5 10.5
The recent correction in Smallcap space has led to Marketcap divergence in terms of valuations
.
Marketcap Returns Divergence –
Largecap, Midcap and Smallcap
Over the last 2 years, there has been a significant divergence in returns posted by Large, Mid and Smallcaps
13
(22)
(39)
(50)
(40)
(30)
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
Jan-18
Feb-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
%Returnssince1-Jan-18
Largecap Vs. Midcap Vs. Smallcap Returns (1-Jan-18 to 10-Dec-19)
Nifty 50 Index Nifty Midcap 100 Index Nifty Smallcap 100 Index
.
29
Source: Edelweiss Alternative Research. Data as of Dec 10, 2019. Data in % terms. Past performance may or may not sustain in future.
GUIDING FACTORS FOR
THE MARKETS IN 2020
.
Positive Catalysts
Ample Liquidity –
Global & Domestic
Closure of US-
China Phase
one trade deal
Recent
Government
Reforms
Earnings
Recovery
Receding
Agrarian Crisis
.
31
Increasing Global Liquidity
0
20
40
60
80
100
Dec11
Dec12
Dec13
Dec14
Dec15
Dec16
Dec17
Dec18
Dec19
(%)
Most broad-based
easing since
Lehman crisis
% OF CENTRAL BANKS EASING
(1,000)
(500)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019E
2020E
Net change in balance sheet of Developed Market
central banks, calendar year-ends, 2011-20E (US$ bn)
Fed ECB BoJ Total
CHANGE IN BALANCE SHEETS OF DEVELOPED MARKETS
.
32Central Banks Policy easing data as of Dec-19. Source: Edelweiss Securities. Developed Market Central Banks Data as on Calendar year ends. Source: Kotak Securities. ECB – European Central Bank, BoJ – Bank of Japan
Domestic Liquidity Aided By Lower Interest Rates
Data as of Dec-19. Source: Kotak Securities, RBI, SLF – Standing Liquidity Facility, MSF – Marginal Standing Facility, LAF – Liquidity Adjustment Facility
(3,000)
(2,000)
(1,000)
0
1,000
2,000
Dec-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Total Liquidity in the system (INR Bn)
Net LAF Net term repo
Others (MSF/SLF) Total liquidity deficit
6.50
6.25
6.00
5.75
5.40
5.15
5.00
5.30
5.60
5.90
6.20
6.50
Dec-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Repo Rate (%)
.
33
US-China Trade War Timeline &
Phase 1 deal closure
Hostility between US
and China continues
with counter tariffs &
China blaming US for
stalled trade negotiations
The 2 sides mutually
agree to re-start
negotiations on the
sidelines of G20
Devaluation of
Yuan by China
irks the US.
The US announces
likelihood of US-
China Phase 1
trade deal
US-China
negotiators agree
on trade clauses
The phase 1 trade
deal is implemented
just before the next
scheduled tariff hike
The US announces
likelihood of US-
China Phase 1
trade deal
US-China
negotiators agree
on trade clauses
Hostility between
and China continu
with counter tariff
China blaming US
stalled trade negotia
Devaluation of
Yuan by China
irks the US.
The 2 sides mutual
agree to re-start
negotiations on th
sidelines of G20
The phase 1 trade
deal is implemente
just before the nex
scheduled tariff hik
May
2019
Source: Business Insider
.
June
2019
August
2019
October
2019
November
2019
December
2019
34
Recent Reforms
REFORMS
Corporate Tax Cut measures introduced in line with global peers (a step towards global
standardization)
Major positive overhaul in few sectors including NBFC, Telecom, Housing
Bank books cleanup activity a positive reform. Bank book cleanup activity initially led to a
jump in NPL ratio which is now declining
Move to reduce Government stake in major public sector entities to help reduce
financial burden
Implementation of GST an efficient version of indirect tax system
Source: CLSA. NPL – Non performing loans. NBFC – Non Banking Financial Company, GST – Goods and Services Tax
.
35
Earnings Recovery
Data as of Q2 FY20. Earnings growth is represented by PAT growth. Source: Edelweiss Securities
There has been an incremental pick-up in earnings post corporate tax cuts
20% 18%
25%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nifty Earnings growth
.
36
Receding Agrarian Crisis
.
37
Increase in food prices may keep deflation in
check leading to revival in rural demand
Centre + States spend on rural have
incrementally improved
Sufficient water levels due to good
monsoons to boost farm produce
-1.7
6.9
16.9
-6.7
6.0
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Oct-16
Apr-17
Oct-17
Apr-18
Oct-18
Apr-19
Oct-19
(%, yoy)
India food inflation (%) Global food Price
4.1
7.6
9.6
10.8
12.3
5%
14%
27%
12%
14%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20E
FY21E
Amtin(Tn)
Rural Thrust
Centre + states spend on rural (Rs. tn)
Growth (%, yoy)
53
67
62 61
86
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Nov'
FY16
Nov'
FY17
Nov'
FY18
Nov'
FY19
Nov'
FY20
Water availability in reservoirs
(% of total storage)
Source: Spark Capital
Negative Catalysts
GLOBAL FACTORS DOMESTIC FACTORS
• US-China trade war escalating
• US Election outcome
• Hong Kong unrest, Brexit and Oil
price volatility due to possible
tensions between Saudi and Iran
• Fiscal deficit concerns
• Credit concerns – Contagion Effect
• Revenue collection uncertainty
• Pace of Growth (GDP) pickup
• Corporate Earnings Trajectory
GDP – Gross Domestic Product
.
38
MARKET CHECKLIST:
OUR ‘VCTS’ FRAMEWORK
.
‘VCTS’ Back To The Neutral Zone
With Valuations being fully priced in, Business Cycle in low to mid phase and moderating flows, the framework
suggests that markets are in accumulation phase. We recommend accumulating equities in a staggered manner
P/E – Price-to-Earnings; P/B – Price to Book Value Ratio; MF – Mutual Funds; FPI – Foreign Portfolio Investors; GDP – Gross Domestic Product, SIP – Systematic Investment Plan, FII – Foreign Institutional Investor
.
40
VALUATIONS –
FULLY PRICED IN
CYCLE – Quality: High;
Non-Quality – Low to Mid
TRIGGERS –
WATCHFUL
SENTIMENTS –
NOT EUPHORIC
Market Valuations Business Cycle Triggers Sentiments
• High P/E
• P/B – Above Average
• Moderate Marketcap
to GDP
• Moderate Capacity
Utilisation
• Low Credit Growth
• Flows moderating
• SIP Flows steady
• FII Flows picking up
• Union Budget 2020-
2021
• Real Estate Debt De-
leveraging
• Credit growth pick-up
• Govt. Reforms
In-House Equity Valuation Index:
Back to the Neutral Zone
Equity Valuation index is calculated by assigning equal weights to Price-to-Earnings (PE), Price-to-Book (PB), G-Sec*PE and Market Cap to GDP ratio. G-Sec – Government Securities. GDP – Gross Domestic Product; Data as of Dec 31, 2019
The Valuation Index
indicates that
valuations are in a
neutral zone and hence
it is a good time to
remain constructive on
equities with a long
term perspective
41
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Invest in Equities
Aggressively invest in Equities
Neutral
Incremental Money to Debt
Book Partial Profits
112.67
Valuations – P/E and P/B Above 10-yr Average
Source: NSE India; Data as of Dec 24, 2019; P/E – Price to Earnings; P/B – Price to Book Value ; SD – Standard Deviation
28.6
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
P/EValuations
Nifty P/E Valuations
Nifty 50 PE Average -1 SD +/- 1SD
3.79
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Nifty50P/BRatio
Nifty 50 P/B ratio
Nifty 50 P/B ratio Average -1 SD +/- 1SD
42
Valuations – Marketcap To GDP
Source: BSE, RIMES, Morgan Stanley Research; Data as of Nov 2019; GDP - Gross Domestic Product
93%
80%
77%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Marketcap to GDP ratio below 100
2017 2018 2019
The Marketcap to GDP
ratio has corrected over
the last 3 years and is
contained well below
100. This highlights that
valuations are not in
euphoric zone
43
Business Cycle – Capacity Utilisation
0.5
68.9
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
(%YoY)
Gross capital formation (% YoY) Capacity utilisation % (RHS)
Gross Capital
Formation and
Capacity
utilisation are at
the bottom. This
highlights that the
economy is in mid
to low phase
Source: RBI, JM Financial, Data as of September 2019
44
Business Cycle –
Credit Growth lagging Deposit Growth
Source: RBI, Kotak Securities; Data as of Dec 6, 2019
10%
15%
8%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Credit Growth
2017 2018 2019
3%
9%
10%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Deposit Growth
2017 2018 2019
45
We are slowly approaching a better time to invest and hence, it may be a good time to add equities at this juncture
Cycle
.
46
BURST BORING BUBBLEBOOM
• Lehman Crisis 2008
• Dot com burst – 2001
BETTER TIME
TO INVEST
• Equity Markets
currently and in
2012
• Real Estate in 2013
• e-Commerce in
2014
• Bitcoin in 2017
• Equity in 2007 &
2000
• Equity Markets in
2011 & 2017
• Equity Markets in
2013-16
• Equity Markets in
2009-11
• Debt Accrual
Schemes in 2019
Triggers For 2020
UNION BUDGET
REAL ESTATE DEBT
DE – LEVERAGING
CREDIT GROWTH
PICK-UP
GOVERNMENT
REFORMS
2020
TRIGGERS
.
47
Sentiments
Domestic Mutual Fund Flows (Equity)
have been moderating
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Domestic Mutual fund equity flows (in Rs bn)
2019
2018
2017
SIP Flows as a % of total equity flows have gone up
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
SIP (Rs. Bn) SIP as % of Total
Source: Morgan Stanley. Data as of December 23, 2019.
48
The increase in SIP flows can be attributed to midcaps and smallcaps. However, midcap and smallcap performance has
been muted for the last couple of years which may lead to volatility in the flows going forward
INVESTMENT THEMES
FOR 2020
.
Investment Themes For 2020
SIP – Systematic Investment Plan, STP – Systematic Transfer Plan
ECONOMY-MARKET DIVIDE
Current Market rally is driven by select Growth stocks making Value as a theme attractive
MARKETCAP DIVERGENCE
Smallcaps have corrected significantly in the recent past whereas Largecap valuations are
above historic averages. This makes Smallcaps attractive
VOLATILITY
Volatility is expected to continue given the current Global and Domestic economic scenarios.
Aim to manage volatility through Asset Allocation Schemes
MARKET VALUATIONS
With market valuations fully priced in and business cycle in mid to low phase,
we believe it is a good time to accumulate equities in a staggered manner through SIP/STP
.
50
Summary Equity Outlook – 2020
• Union Budget, Real Estate debt de-leveraging and Credit growth pick up key triggers for the
markets
• Constructive on equities and recommend accumulating equities in a staggered manner through
SIP/STP
• Stark divergence in Growth and Value themes. Value and Special Situations theme expected to
play out well
• Positive on Smallcap post recent underperformance and reasonable valuations. Multicap space
can be looked at from a long term perspective
• Asset Allocation schemes may be considered to address near term volatility
• Continue to remain watchful of de-escalation of US-China trade war, US Election outcome,
Central banks monetary easing regime and corporate earnings trajectory.
51
Equity & Hybrid Scheme Recommendations for 2020
DIVERGENCE ACCUMULATION
VOLATILITY
VALUE VS. GROWTH &
MARKETCAP DIVERGENCE
Marketcap Divergence –
• ICICI Prudential Smallcap Fund
TO BENEFIT FROM VOLATILITY
FOR LONG TERM
WEALTH CREATION
Value and Special Situation Theme –
• ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund
• ICICI Prudential India Opportunities Fund
SIP/STP in
• ICICI Prudential Smallcap Fund
• ICICI Prudential Multicap Fund
• ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund
• ICICI Prudential Asset Allocator Fund (FoF)
.
52
Our Asset Allocation Bouquet
.
ICICI Prudential Regular
Savings Fund*
ICICI Prudential Equity
Savings Fund
CICI P d i l
15 - 50%
ICICI Prudential Balanced
Advantage Fund
30 - 80%
ICICI Prudential
Multi-Asset Fund
ICICI P d i
10 - 80%
ICICI Prudential Asset Allocator Fund (FoF)*^
ICICI Prudential Equity
& Debt Fund
65 - 80%
10 - 25%
A All
0-100%
The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per the Scheme Information Document, *These schemes will attract debt taxation. ^Investors may please note that they will be bearing the recurring expenses of this Scheme in addition
to the expenses of the underlying Schemes in which this Scheme makes investment.
53
Our SIP Recommendations
.
ICICI Prudential
India Opportunities
Fund
(An open ended equity
scheme following
special situations theme)
ICICI Prudential
Value Discovery
Fund
(An open ended equity
scheme following a
value investment
strategy)
ICICI Prudential
Smallcap Fund
(An open ended equity
scheme predominantly
investing in smallcap
stocks)
ICICI
Prudential
Midcap Fund
(An open ended equity
scheme predominantly
investing in mid cap
stocks)
ICICI Prudential
Multicap Fund
(An open ended equity
scheme investing
across large cap, mid
cap, small cap stocks)
54
FIXED INCOME OUTLOOK
55
Carrying forward our theme in the Fixed Income space as well, we are currently
witnessing diverging trends like yields of Gsec/AAA Vs. AA/A, Credit Growth Vs.
Deposit growth, CPI Inflation Vs. Food Inflation etc. In the subsequent slides we
will try to cover these aspects highlighting our theme for 2020
Rear-View Mirror: Glancing Through 2019
(Fixed Income)
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
Jan/19
Feb/19
Mar/19
Apr/19
May/19
Jun/19
Jul/19
Aug/19
Sep/19
Oct/19
Nov/19
Dec/19
India10-YrG-SecYield(%)
Govt. Infuses
109 Bn in 4
PSU Banks
Interim Budget
Presented
RBI approves
interim dividend
of INR 280Bn
RBI to inject
liquiditythrough
USD/INR Swap
RBI cuts rateby
25 bps to 6%
General
electionsresult
RBI shifts policy stance
to accommodative, cuts
repo rate by 25bps
10 Year Gsec hits
lowest point since
demonetisation
Corporate Taxcut
announcedby theFM
Unconventional
rate cutof 35bps
by the RBI GDP growth
slumps to 4.5%,
RBI announces
Operational
Twist
Source: Morgan Stanley, Data as of Dec 27,2019. RBI – Reserve Bank of India, FM – Finance Minister, NBFC – Non Banking Financial Company, GDP – Gross Domestic Product, IBC – Indian Bankruptcy Code. PSU – Public Sector Undertaking
NBFCs came
undertheambitof IBC
.
56
OUR FIXED INCOME OUTLOOK CAPTURES
Divergence 2019 Vs. 2020
Case for Short/ Medium Duration Schemes
Case for Accrual Schemes
Product Recommendations
.
57
DIVERGENCE 2019 Vs. 2020
.
Our View –
2019 Monetary Stimulus to 2020 Fiscal Stimulus
YEAR GONE BY
FISCAL
STIMULUS
GOING FORWARD
FISCAL
STIMULUS
MONETARY
STIMULUS
MONETARY
STIMULUS
Monetary Stimulus was in the driving seat in 2019 with:
• 135 bps rate for CYTD 19
• Ample Liquidity
• Accommodative Stance
We believe that monetary stimulus will play the
supporting role and fiscal stimulus will take the
driving seat in 2020. However, fiscal deficit
remains a constraint.
STIMULUS STIMULUS STIMULUSSTIMULUS SULUS
.
2019 Liquidity Deficit to 2020 Surplus Liquidity
426.1
398.3
448.6
390
400
410
420
430
440
450
460
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
-400000
-300000
-200000
-100000
0
100000
200000
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Interbank Liquidity (In Crs.)
Deficit
Surplus
In 2019, RBI reserves
were highest ever due
to dollar purchases
RBI Forex Reserves (In US$ Bn.)
Dec-19
RBI’s liquidity stance and forex intervention has kept the liquidity abundant in the system.
This has kept downward pressure on the short term rates.
.
60Source Morgan Stanley Research. Data as of Dec 25, 2019, Forex – Foreign Exchange
2019 Deflation to Reflation in Food Prices
Source: CRISIL Research, Data as on30-Nov-2019
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Inflation Data
Core CPI Food inlfation Fuel and light inflation Headline CPI
Owing to Food
Inflation, the
Consumer Price Index
(CPI) numbers are at
its 40 months high as
of Nov-2019. Food
prices, due to its
transitory nature, are
expected to
normalize
.
61
2019 Low to 2020 Moderate – GST Collection
Source : Spark Research, GST – Goods & Services Tax, Data as on 30-Nov-2019
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
Sep/17
Nov/17
Jan/18
Mar/18
May/18
Jul/18
Sep/18
Nov/18
Jan/19
Mar/19
May/19
Jul/19
Sep/19
Nov/19
GST Collection (Rs. Bn)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Total filings (Mn.)
GST revenue has started to pick up and filings remained stable. However, the same needs to be monitored for establishing a growth trend
.
62
CASE FOR SHORT TO MEDIUM
DURATION SCHEMES
.
Low Real
Returns
Opportunistic &
Trading exposure
Most Favoured Space :
Better Accrual
+Opportunistic Capital
Appreciation
Ideal for Short
term parking with
higher exposure
to Corporate
bonds
Bird’s Eye View of Fixed Income Space
Divergence between Short Term Rates and Long Term Rates
Yield Curve – Sovereign and Corporate (In %)
.
KEY TAKEAWAY:
Accrual/spread assets
main theme to play.
Capital Appreciation
theme should be played
opportunistically.
We prefer 2-5 Yr
segment due to probable
high total returns
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
3 Mnths 6 Mnths 1 Yrs 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 10 Yrs 13 Yrs 15 Yrs
Corporate Bond - CP and AAA Government Security - Tbill and Gsec
64Source : RBI, CCIL India, CRISIL Research, Data as of Dec 25, 2019
Fiscal Concerns may put pressure
on the Long End Yields
.
Increased borrowings
from Central Govt., State
Govt. and Central PSU
Enterprises (Total Gross
Deficit) has heightened
fiscal concerns for India.
This may keep yields at
the longer end of the
curve volatile
65
Source: Kotak Research, E – Estimates, GFD – Gross Fiscal Deficit, PSU – Public Sector Undertaking. GDP – Gross Domestic ProductData as of Dec 25, 2019
2.5
6.0
6.5
4.8
5.9
4.9
4.5
4.1 3.9
3.5 3.5 3.4
3.81.5
2.4
2.9
2.1
1.9
2.0
2.2 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.1 2.9
3.0
1.1
1.7
1.5
1.1
1.3
1.3
0.8 1.0
1.4 1.6 1.8 2.6 2.2
5.2
10.1
10.9
7.9
9.2
8.2
7.4 7.7
8.4 8.5 8.4
8.9 9.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E
Gross Fiscal Deficit as a % of GDP
Central GFD State GFD Central PSU borrowing Total GFD Fiscal Deficit
In order to curb the steepening of the yield curve the RBI
resorted to “Operation Twist”
Term Premium - Spread between Government security yields
(10 Yr/ 1 Yr) at the highest levels since 2010
RBI in Dec-2019 introduced “Operation Twist” to reduce term premium.
This has made the case for tactical investing at the long end of the curve.
Month
OMOs by RBI (Rs. Bn)
Purchase Sale Objective
Jan-19 400 -
Adding Liquidity
Feb-19 350 0.2
Mar-19 375 0.3
Apr-19 0.4 0.1
May-19 250 -
Jun-19 275 -
Sep-19 7.55 -
Oct-19 0.55 0.05
Dec-19 200 153 Reducing term premium
Operation Twist
RBI OMOs to Operation Twist
.
Source: Morgan Stanley. Data as of Dec 30, 2019. OMO – Open Market Operations
66
Lower end Yields – Real Returns low
.
67
5.0
5.2 5.3
6.3
6.4
6.6
8.0
7.7
5.2
5.9
6.3
6.8
7.1
7.5 7.6 7.6
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
3 Mnths 6 Mnths 1 Yrs 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 10 Yrs 13 Yrs 15 Yrs
Interest Rates (%)
Government Security - Tbill and Gsec Corporate Bond - CP and AAA CPI Inflation
Positive real returns
Inflation
Extreme short end
(less than 3 months),
due to ample liquidity
has moved into lower
real returns territory.
Hence moving up the
yield curve is
recommended
Low real returns
Source: Kotak Research, RBI, Data as on 25-Dec-2019, Inflation data as on Nov-2019. Inflation for Nov-19 (5.5%) is considered as the base reading for the graph
Summary –
Case for Short to Medium Duration Schemes
.
68
• Recommend combination of short term assets and long term assets with a portfolio maturity
range of 2-5 Years
• Focus should be on spread assets while Capital Appreciation strategy would be more
opportunistic in approach
• Short and medium end of the curve may deliver higher risk adjusted returns
• Fiscal concern and inflation in the first half may keep the longer end volatile
• Hence, use the longer end of the yield curve for trading strategy, as the rate cuts might be
opportunistic
• Extreme short end (less than 3 months), due to ample liquidity may give lower real returns
Case for Accrual Schemes
Current Scenario
and historical
trend of rate
transmission
Lack of
transmission
Case for
investment
in accrual
schemes
Why ICICI
Prudential
Accrual Funds?
.
69
Current Scenario
.
70
• RBI has delivered 135 bps rate cut in CY'19
• Rate Transmission channels are broken due to credit concerns, NBFC slowdown and
crowding-out effect
• Banks Marginal Cost of Lending Rates (MCLR) continues to remain elevated, which has
further hampered the rate transmission process
• Despite the rate cuts, the corporate bond rates continue to remain elevated
• Also, high small savings rate have been a deterrent for banks to reduce deposit rate
even post rate cuts
Divergence –
Sharp Policy Rate Cuts But Transmission Limited
.
71
-135
-40 -39
5
-160
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
Repo Rate MCLR WALR - fresh rupee
loans
WALR - outstanding
rupee loans
InBasisPoints(bps)
Monetary Transmission from Feb 2019 till Oct 2019 (In Bps)
Source: UBS Research, MCLR – Marginal Cost of Lending Rate, WALR – Weighted Average Lending Rate, Data as on 31-Oct-2019
Despite the Monetary Policy
Committee (MPC) reducing repo
rates by 135bps, the weighted
average lending rate (WALR) on
fresh rupee loans of
commercial banks declined
merely by around 40bps while it
increased by 5bps for WALR on
outstanding rupee loans during
the same period
Transmission – Historical Trend
.
72
25
-125
-50
-25
50
-135
-7
-63 -55 -52
36
-44
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
-150
-130
-110
-90
-70
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
CY 2014 CY 2015 CY 2016 CY 2017 CY 2018 CY 2019
Monetary Transmission
Repo Rate (Y-o-Y absolute bps) WALR (Y-o-Y absolute bps) : RHS
Source: UBS Research, WALR – Weighted Average Lending Rate, Data as on 31-Oct-2019
Despite the repo rate being
reduced from 6.5% in Jan
2019 to 5.15% till date
(135bps), the WALR reduced
merely from 9.97% in Jan
2019 to 9.53% till date i.e.
44bps. On an absolute basis,
the transmission has been
the least in last 5 years
Transmission – Historical Trend
.
73
Spread of Banks Weighted Average Domestic Term Deposit Rate (WADTDR) and Weighted Average Lending Rate (WALR)
over Repo in October 2019 has been the highest in the last 5 years
Date WADTDR (%) Repo Rate (%)
Difference
(bps)
Sep-14 8.7 8.0 70
Mar-15 8.6 7.8 82
Sep-15 8.0 7.3 78
Mar-16 7.7 6.8 98
Sep-16 7.4 6.5 91
Mar-17 7.0 6.3 72
Sep-17 6.7 6.0 65
Mar-18 6.7 6.0 67
Sep-18 6.8 6.5 27
Mar-19 6.9 6.3 64
Sep-19 6.8 5.4 144
Oct-19 6.8 5.2 160
Date WALR (%) Repo Rate (%)
Difference
(bps)
Sep-14 11.5 8.0 352
Mar-15 11.1 7.8 332
Sep-15 10.8 7.3 352
Mar-16 10.5 6.8 372
Sep-16 10.4 6.5 385
Mar-17 9.7 6.3 349
Sep-17 9.4 6.0 342
Mar-18 9.3 6.0 334
Sep-18 9.7 6.5 317
Mar-19 9.7 6.3 348
Sep-19 9.6 5.4 417
Oct-19 9.5 5.2 438
Source: Kotak Research, WALR – Weighted Average Lending Rate, Data as on 31-Oct-2019
Divergence –
Sharp fall in lending by Banks & NBFCs
.
74
(5,000)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
1HFY19
1HFY20
Total credit to commercial sector (INR Bn.)
Banks NBFC-NDSI/HFC Other non-banks Foreign Total
Source: Kotak Research, 31-Sep-2019. NBFC-NDSI – Non Banking Financial Company Non Deposit Taking Systematically Important, HFC – Housing Finance Company
Post the credit crisis in 2019,
there has been a squeeze in
the flow of resources to the
commercial sector.
Incremental credit from
Banks and NBFCs have
declined in FY2020 owing to
risk aversion
Reasons for lack of transmission
NBFC Credit
Concerns
Flight for Safety
High rates of Small
Savings Schemes
(SSS)
Bank NBFC
.
75
Divergence between Corporate Bond Yields
and NBFC Yields
.
76
Source : Kotak Economic Research, Data as on25-Dec-2019. NBFC – Non Banking Financial Company
8.81
40.31
3.93
34.15
(10)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
SpreadsbetweenNBFC&CorporateBonds
(%)
NBFC Spread over AAA & AA rated Corporate Bonds
1 year AAA NBFC-corporate bond (in bps) 5 year AAA NBFC-corporate bond (in bps)
Post Sep-18, NBFC
premiums over
corporate bonds have
gone up substantially on
the back of credit
concerns.
This resulted in the
slowdown in
transmission
Flight to Safety
.
77Source : RBI, Spark Research, Data as on25-Dec-2019. SLR – statutory Liquidity Ratio. The above data points represent current market position
4.2
-1.0
1.2
3.2
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jun/16
Sep/16
Dec/16
Mar/17
Jun/17
Sep/17
Dec/17
Mar/18
Jun/18
Sep/18
Dec/18
Mar/19
Jun/19
Sep/19
Dec/19
Net liquidity (Rs tn) One of the major
bank’s corporate book
(46% of the total loan
book)
Mar-18 Sept-18 Mar-19 Sept-19
AAA 21% 24% 39% 36%
AA 22% 26% 25% 25%
A 16% 21% 14% 18%
Total A & above 60% 71% 78% 79%
BBB 10% 13% 10% 9%
Investment Grade 70% 84% 88% 88%
BB & Below 18% 9% 6% 7%
Unrated 13% 7% 6% 5%
Instead of lending, banks started parking money with RBI at reverse repo rate i.e. most of its incremental deposits have been
channelled towards SLR investments. Also, of what they have lent, A & above rated corporate bonds are 79% of such loans in
September 2019 over 60% in March 2018, majorly on the back of risk aversion
Big Thing About Small Saving Schemes
(SSS)
.
78
Index Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19
(A) Small saving interest rate (average) 7.4% 7.4% 7.4% 7.7% 7.8% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7%
Post Office 5-year Recurring Deposit Account 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 7.3% 7.3% 7.2% 7.2% 7.2%
Post Office 1-year Fixed Deposit Account 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% 6.9% 7.0% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9%
Public Provident Fund Account 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 8.0% 8.0% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9%
National Savings Certificate 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 8.0% 8.0% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9%
Kisan Vikas Patra 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 7.7% 7.7% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6%
Sukanya Samriddhi Yojna 8.1% 8.1% 8.1% 8.5% 8.5% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4%
(B) Bank term deposit rate (>1 year) 6.7% 6.7% 6.7% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 6.8% 6.8%
Gap (A-B) 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8%
Note: Kisan Vikas Patra was launched in November 2014; Sukanya Samriddhi Yojna was launched in January 2015. Banks correspond to scheduled commercial banks. We have used the SBI term deposit rate as a proxy for the December 2019
quarter as the bank term deposit rate is only available until the September 2019 quarter. Source: Ministry of Finance, UBS
SSS spread over Bank Deposit Rates have remained elevated thereby restraining Banks from reducing their Deposit Rates further
Why Accrual Funds?
Industry Flows
are slowing down
Valuations are
attractive
Narrative
associated with
category is
negative
.
79
Divergence –
Corporate Bond & G-sec Spread
.
80
5
6
7
8
1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year
Yields(%)
AA AAA Gsec Repo Rate
Source : CRISL Research, Data as on25-Dec-2019
Corporate bonds
provide better
risk-adjusted returns
over G-Sec, as they
can provide a better
cushion from any
unforeseen event.
Avg. 177
bps
Avg.
85 bps
S
P
R
E
A
D
Avg. 246
bps
.
Divergence –
Corporate Bond & G-sec Spread
81
Due to flight to safety, the yields on the AA and A space are still available at elevated spread over repo,
providing higher accrual and margin of safety
Instrument
Today 1 Year Ago
3 Year 5 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Yields(%)
Spread
over
Repo
Yields(%)
Spread
over
Repo
Yields(%)
Spread
over
Repo
Yields(%)
Spread
over
Repo
G-Sec 6.3 1.2 6.5 1.3 7.4 0.9 7.5 1.0
AAA Bonds 6.8 1.6 7.1 2.0 8.9 2.4 9.0 2.5
AA rated Bonds 7.4 2.3 7.8 2.7 9.4 2.9 9.6 3.1
A rated Bonds 8.9 3.7 9.3 4.2 10.4 3.9 10.5 4.0
Source : CRISIL Research, Data as on25-Dec-2019. Past performance may or may not sustain in future
Why ICICI Prudential Accrual Funds?
Investment
Philosophy
Robust
Investment
Process
Strong Credit
Selection Process
Better Risk
Adjusted Returns
.
82
SAFETY LIQUIDITY RETURNS
The investment team seeks to achieve Safety, Liquidity and Returns (SLR) in order of
priority for managing variety of our fixed income schemes.
S L R
Investment Philosophy
.
83
Robust Investment Process
COMPANY SHORTLISTED FOR INVESTMENT
Assessment of
Management Risk
& Business Risk
Asset Quality
Past track record
of the company
Cash Flows
Credit Due
Diligence
.
84
Strong Credit Selection Process
All target credit investment proposal face multiple checks
• Independent evaluation
by Risk team
• Decision making is not concentrated
to one person
• Focus not just on credit
and liquidity risk but also
on diversification
TARGET LIST FILTERS
• Independent research team
• Internal Credit Analysis
• External credit rating
CREDIT
SELECTION
.
85
Security Name
Month of
Downgrade to D
IPRU Exposure at the
time of Downgrade Security Name
Month of
Downgrade to D
IPRU Exposure at the
time of Downgrade
IL&FS Financial Services Ltd. Sep-18 0 Reliance Big Pvt Ltd. Jun-19 0
IL&FS Ltd. Sep-18 0
Reliance Infrastructure Consulting &
Engineers Pvt Ltd. Jun-19 0
IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd. Sep-18 0 Sintex Industries Ltd. Jun-19 0
Kwality Ltd. Sep-18 0
IL & FS Education and Technology
Services Ltd. Jul-19 0
IL&FS Energy Development Company Ltd. Oct-18 0 Reliance Home Finance Ltd. Aug-19 0
IL & FS Tamil Nadu Power Co. Ltd. Jan-19 0 Sintex-BAPL Ltd. Aug-19 0
Jharkand Road Projects
Implementation Co Ltd. Jan-19 0 Altico Capital India Pvt Ltd. Sep-19 0
Jorabat Shillong Expressway Ltd. Mar-19 0 Reliance Broadcast Network Ltd. Sep-19 0
Hazaribagh Ranchi Expressway Ltd. Apr-19 0 Business Broadcast News Holdings Ltd. Sep-19 0
Reliance Commercial Finance Pvt Ltd. Apr-19 0 Simplex Infra Dec-19 0
Dewan Housing Finance Corporation Ltd. Jun-19 0 Essel Infra Dec-19 0
Our exposure to securities that were
downgraded last year
The securities mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these securities.
.
86
Total ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund Exposure at the time of Downgrade = NIL
ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund:
Spread Over Repo (Since Inception)
.
Data as on November 30, 2019, YTM values taken since scheme inception. Past Performance may or may not be sustained infuture.
YieldSpreads(%)
87
ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund:
Spread Over Repo (Last 10 year trend)
.
YieldSpreads(%)
Data as on November 30, 2019. YTM values taken for the last 10 years. Past Performance may or may not be sustained infuture.
88
Summary – Case for Accrual Funds
• The elevated spread of Corporate Bonds over Repo provides good accrual income and high margin of
safety
• We expect compression of Corporate Bond spreads over Repo to happen going forward, due to ample
liquidity
• We believe, hereafter, banks would start seeking higher yielding assets, implying higher risk appetite,
which may narrow the spread between G-sec and Corporate Bond
• We continue to focus on risk adjusted returns, rather than focusing only on YTMs
• With our credit selection process we have been able to avoid any major credit stress/event on our
portfolio
• We continue to remain cognizant of managing liquidity, concentration, credit and duration in our accrual
portfolio to provide better risk adjusted returns
.
89
STRATEGY FOR 2020
.
Macro Outlook
.
91
Indicators Dec-19 Outlook Remarks
RBI Policy Rates 5.15% Neutral Opportunistic rate cuts
RBI Policy Stance Accommodative Positive Growth supportive
CPI inflation 5.5% (Nov 2019) Neutral First half expected to high, second half should normalize
Oil Prices (USD/barrel) 68.44 Neutral Monitor long term trend
CAD (% of GDP) 2.0% (Apr-Jun 2019) Positive Weak domestic growth supporting CAD
Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP) 3.5% to 3.7% (Expected) Negative Weak growth and further fiscal stimulus
FX Reserves (USD Bn) 449 Positive RBI looking to buy dollar
10yr G-Sec 6.54% Neutral Play opportunistically to benefit from capital appreciation
Political Scenario Strong Mandate Cautious Local unrest
Source : CRISIL Research, RBI, CCIL India,Data as on30-Dec-2019, CAD – Current Account Deficit, CPI - Consumer Price Index, GDP – Gross Domestic Product
Fixed Income Strategy for 2020
.
92
Particulars View Reason Strategy
Accrual/ Spread Assets Highly Positive High spread over Repo Higher allocation recommended
Short/Medium Space Positive Risk Adjusted returns high
Recommended for Total return strategy
(Accrual + Capital Appreciation)
Dynamic Duration
Strategy
Positive Manage duration dynamically
Recommended for Total return strategy
(Accrual + Capital Appreciation)
Long End Space Opportunistic
RBI Intervention through
opportunistic rate cut + Operation
twist
Use trading strategy and do tactical
allocation for capital appreciation
Extreme Short End Negative Lower real rates
Move to higher spread assets and add more
duration
Key Takeaways – Fixed Income Space
• Continue to remain highly positive on accrual space/spread assets and should be the
main theme for 2020
• Capital Appreciation strategy would be more tactical in approach, due to RBI’s
opportunistic rate cuts
• Recommend combination of short term assets and long term assets with a portfolio
maturity range of 2-5 Years
• Fiscal concerns and inflation in the first half may keep the longer end volatile. Hence,
use the longer end of the yield curve for trading strategy
• Extreme short end (less than 3 months), due to ample liquidity may give lower real
returns
.
93
Triggers For 2020
FISCAL STIMULUS
RESOLUTION OF
STRESSED SECTOR
DOMESTIC
GROWTH RECOVERY
EM GROWTH
RECOVERY
2020
TRIGGERS
.
94
Debt Valuation Index
Debt Valuation Index considers WPI, CPI, Sensex YOY returns, Gold YOY returns and Real estate YOY returns over G-Sec yield, Current Account Balance and Crude Oil Movement for calculation. WPI – Wholesale Price Index; CPI –
Consumer Price Index. None of the aforesaid recommendations are based on any assumptions. These are purely for reference and the investors are requested to consult their financial advisors before investing.
.
95
4.52
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Feb-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Ultra Low Duration
Low Duration
Moderate Duration
High Duration
Aggressively in High Duration
We recommend investors to
invest in Short to Medium
Duration for total return
benefit or Accrual Schemes for
higher carry over repo.
For investors who aim to
benefit from volatility we
recommend investing in
Dynamic Duration Schemes
Debt Strategy to Follow
.
96
Accrual
Schemes
Low/Short
Duration
Schemes
Dynamic
Duration Scheme
BENEFITS
Aim to capture current
Elevated Yield
Aim to mitigate interest
rate volatility
Aim to manage volatility
by active duration
management
FIXED INCOME SCHEME
RECOMMENDATIONS 2020
.
Fixed Income Recommendations
.
98
ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund
Cash Management Solution
(which aims to benefit from better risk adjusted returns)
ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund
ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund
Accrual Schemes
(which aims to benefit from capturing yields at elevated levels)
ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund
ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund
Dynamic Duration Schemes
(which aims to benefit from volatility by actively managing duration)
ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund
Short/Medium Duration Schemes
(which aims to benefit from mitigating interest rate volatility)ICICI Prudential Banking and PSU Debt Fund
Our PMS Recommendations –
ICICI Prudential PMS Contra Portfolio
(A series under “Deep Value Portfolio”)
.
99
Portfolio Strategy
ICICI Prudential PMS Contra Portfolio aims to provide long term capital
appreciation and generate returns by investing in underperforming stocks or
sectors, which are available at intrinsic valuations and are expected to perform
well in the long run.
To strike an appropriate balance of concentration and diversification Portfolio
Manager retains the flexibility to invest across market capitalization and
sectors.
Key Features
Invest across Market Capitalisations
The Portfolio is suitable for investors seeking
long term wealth creation by investing in equities
Investment Horizon: 4 Years & Above
Benchmark Index: S&P BSE 200
Portfolio Performance (%) 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year
Since
Inception*
ICICI Prudential PMS Contra Portfolio 1.77 6.85 3.03 14.43 15.28
S&P BSE 200 1.23 6.56 3.70 9.90 2.55
Data as on 30th Dec, 2019. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. The return mentioned above is the return of the oldest client of the portfolio. Further, the portfolio value is re-based as and when applicable.
*Inception date: September 14, 2018. All the returns calculated above are before charging of expenses
The investment strategy, approach and the structure of the portfolio herein involves risk and there can be no assurance that specific objectives will be met under differing market conditions or cycles. The investment strategy and the composition of the
portfolio as stated herein is only indicative in nature and is subject to change within the provisions of the disclosure document and client agreement without any prior notice to investors. Please refer to the disclosure document & client agreement for
details and risk factors.
Our PMS Recommendations –
ICICI Prudential PMS PIPE Portfolio
(A series under “PIPE Portfolio”)
100
Portfolio Strategy
ICICI Prudential PMS PIPE Portfolio aims to provide long term capital
appreciation and generate returns by investing primarily in Mid and Small
segment of the market by having exposure in companies enjoying some
economic moat or undergoing special situations or in the midst of unfavourable
business cycle.
Key Features
Invest predominantly in Mid and Small Caps
Investment Horizon: 5 Years & Above
Benchmark Index: S&P BSE Small Cap
PROVEN PERFORMANCE WITH TIMELY EXIT
After a successful 4-year period, the exit strategy helped limiting a significant downside The erstwhile ICICI Prudential PMS PIPE Portfolio –
Series I* delivered ~303% absolute return between 1st
Nov 2013 to 31st Jan 2018 against ~215%of S&P BSE
Smallcap Index. The Portfolios of the clients who were
invested in the strategy was wound up in January 2018,
considering valuation were at cyclical peak. The Strategy
is now beeing offered with an aim to capture the
opportunity in the mid and small cap space.0
100
200
300
400
500
Nov/2013 Sep/2014 Jul/2015 May/2016 Mar/2017 Jan/2018 Nov/2018
ICICI Prudential PMS PIPE Portfolio
S&P BSE SMALL CAP
Performance between 1st Nov 2013 to 31st Jan 2018. Past Performance may or may not sustain in future. The above return was pertaining to the oldest client of the Portfolio The return of individual portfolios may vary.
The investment strategy, approach and the structure of the portfolio herein involves risk and there can be no assurance that specific objectives will be met under differing market conditions or cycles. The investment strategy and the composition of the
portfolio as stated herein is only indicative in nature and is subject to change within the provisions of the disclosure document and client agreement without any prior notice to investors. Please refer to the disclosure document & client agreement for
details and risk factors.
Our Equity Schemes
.
101
Scheme Name Type of Scheme
ICICI Prudential Bluechip Fund An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in large cap stocks
ICICI Prudential Large & Mid Cap Fund An open ended equity scheme investing in both large cap and mid cap stocks.
ICICI Prudential Midcap Fund An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in mid cap stocks.
ICICI Prudential Smallcap Fund An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in small cap stocks.
ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund An open ended equity scheme following a value investment strategy.
ICICI Prudential Multicap Fund
An open ended equity scheme investing across large cap, mid cap, small cap
stocks.
ICICI Prudential India Opportunities Fund An Open Ended Equity Scheme following Special Situations theme
Our Hybrid Schemes / Fund of Funds Scheme
Scheme Name Type of Scheme
ICICI Prudential Asset Allocator Fund (FoF)*
An open ended fund of funds scheme investing in equity oriented schemes,
debt oriented schemes and gold ETFs/schemes.
Scheme Name Type of Scheme
ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund An open ended dynamic asset allocation fund
ICICI Prudential Regular Savings Fund An open ended hybrid scheme investing predominantly in debt instruments
ICICI Prudential Equity Savings Fund An open ended scheme investing in equity, arbitrage and debt.
ICICI Prudential Equity & Debt Fund
An open ended hybrid scheme investing predominantly in equity and equity related
instruments
ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund
An open ended scheme investing in Equity, Debt, Gold/Gold ETF/units of REITs
& InvITs and other asset classes as may be permitted from time to time.
.
*Investors may please note that they will be bearing the recurring expenses of this Scheme in addition to the expenses of the underlying Schemes in which this Scheme makes investment.
102
Our Fixed Income Schemes
Scheme Name Type of Scheme
ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund
An open ended ultra-short term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay
duration of the portfolio is between 3 months and 6 months.
ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund
An open ended short term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay
duration of the portfolio is between 1 Year and 3 Years.
ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund
An open ended medium term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay
duration of the portfolio is between 3 Years and 4 Years. The Macaulay duration of the portfolio
is 1 Year to 4 years under anticipated adverse situation.
ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in AA and below rated corporate bonds.
ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund
An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in floating rate instruments (including
fixed rate instruments converted to floating rate exposures using swaps/derivatives).
ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund An open ended dynamic debt scheme investing across duration.
ICICI Prudential Savings Fund
An open ended low duration debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay
duration of the portfolio is between 6 months and 12 months
ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund
An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in Debt instruments of banks, Public
Sector Undertakings, Public Financial Institutions and Municipal Bonds
ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in AA+ and above rated corporate bonds.
ICICI Prudential Money Market Fund An open ended debt scheme investing in money market instruments
.
103
Macaulay duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price
Riskometers
ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund is suitable for investors whoare seeking*:
Long term wealth creation
An open ended scheme investing across asset classes.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential Equity & Debt Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Long term wealth creation solution
A balanced fund aiming for long term capital appreciation and current income by investing in equity as well as fixed income securities.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Long term wealth creation solution
An equity fund that aims for growth by investing in equity and derivatives.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
.
104
Riskometers
ICICI Prudential Bluechip Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Long term wealth creation
An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in large cap stocks.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Long term wealth creation
An open ended equity scheme following a value investment strategy
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential Large & Mid Cap Fund is suitable for investors whoare seeking*:
Long term wealth creation
An open ended equity scheme investing in both largecap and mid cap stocks
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
.
105
Riskometers
ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Medium term savings
A debt scheme that aims to generate income through investing predominantly in AA and below rated corporate bonds while
maintaining the optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Medium term savings
A debt scheme that invests in debt and money market instruments with a view to maximize income while maintaining optimum balance
of yield, safety and liquidity
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential Regular Savings Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Medium to long term regular income solution
A hybrid fund that aims to generate regular income through investments primarily in debt and money market instruments and long term
capital appreciation by investing a portion in equity.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
.
106
Riskometers
ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Short term income generation and capital appreciation solution
A debt fund that aims to generate income by investing in a range of debt and money market instruments of various maturities.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
All durationsavings
A debt scheme that invests in debt and money market instruments with a view to maximize income while maintaining optimum balance
of yield, safety andliquidity
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential Smallcap Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Long Term wealth creation
An open ended equity scheme that seeks to generate capital appreciation by predominantly investing in equity and equity related
securities of small cap companies.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
.
107
Riskometers
ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Short term savings
An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in floating rate instruments
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable forthem
ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Short term regular income
An open ended ultra-short term debt scheme investing in a range of debt and money market instruments
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable forthem
ICICI Prudential Midcap Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Long Term wealth creation
An open-ended equity scheme that aims for capital appreciation by investing in diversified mid cap companies.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable forthem
.
108
Riskometers
ICICI Prudential India Opportunities Fund (The scheme is suitable for investors who are seeking*)
Long term wealth creation
An equity scheme that invests in stocks based on special situations theme.
*Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about whether the product is suitable forthem.
ICICI Prudential Equity Savings Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Long term wealth creation
An open ended scheme that seeks to generate regular income through investments in fixed income securities, arbitrage and other
derivative strategies and aim for long term capital appreciation by investing in equity and equity related instruments.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable forthem
ICICI Prudential Multicap Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Long term wealth creation
An open ended equity scheme investing across largecap, mid cap and small cap stocks.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
.
109
Riskometers
ICICI Prudential Savings Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Short term savings
An open ended low duration debt scheme that aims to maximize income by investing in debt and money market instruments while
maintaining optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Short term savings
An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in Debt instruments of banks, Public Sector Undertakings, Public Financial Institutions
and Municipal Bonds
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
.
110
ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund is suitable for investors whoare seeking*:
Short term savings
An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in highest rated corporate bonds
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
Riskometers
ICICI Prudential Money Market Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Short term savings
A money market scheme that seeks to provide reasonable returns, commensurate with low risk while providing a high level of liquidity
*Investors should consult
•Long Term wealth creation
•An open ended fund of funds scheme investing in equity oriented schemes, debt oriented schemes and gold ETF/schemes.
*Investorsshouldconsulttheirfinancialadvisorsif in doubt aboutwhethertheproduct is suitablefor them.
ICICI Prudential Asset Allocator Fund (FoF) (An open ended fund of funds scheme investing in equity oriented schemes,
debt oriented schemes and gold ETFs/ schemes) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
.
111
Disclaimer
Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
All figures and other data given in this document are dated. The same may or may not be relevant at a future date. The AMC takes no responsibility of updating any
data/information in this material from time to time. The information shall not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any
other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited. Prospective investors
are advised to consult their own legal, tax and financial advisors to determine possible tax, legal and other financial implication or consequence of subscribing to the
Products mentioned herein. Investing in securities including equities and derivatives involves certain risks and considerations associated generally with making
investments in securities. The value of the portfolios may fluctuate and can go up or down. Past Performance may or may not be sustained in future.
Disclaimer: In the preparation of the material contained in this document, ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Ltd. (the AMC) has used information that is
publicly available, including Budget speech and information developed in-house. The stock(s)/sector(s) mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation
and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in this stock(s). Some of the material used in the document may have been obtained from
members/ persons other than the AMC and/or its affiliates and which may have been made available to the AMC and/or to its affiliates. Information gathered and
material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. The AMC however does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and / or completeness of any
information. We have included statements / opinions / recommendations in this document, which contain words, or phrases such as “will”, “expect”, “should”,
“believe” and similar expressions or variations of such expressions, that are “forward looking statements”. Actual results may differ materially from those suggested by
the forward looking statements due to risk or uncertainties associated with our expectations with respect to, but not limited to, exposure to market risks, general
economic and political conditions in India and other countries globally, which have an impact on our services and / or investments, the monetary and interest policies of
India, inflation, deflation, unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices etc. ICICI Prudential Asset
Management Company Limited (including its affiliates), the Mutual Fund, The Trust and any of its officers, directors, personnel and employees, shall not liable for any
loss, damage of any nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss of profit in any way arising from the
use of this material in any manner. Further, the information contained herein should not be construed as forecast or promise or investment advice. The recipient alone
shall be fully responsible/are liable for any decision taken on this material.
.
112
THANK YOU

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ICICI Pru MF - Annual Market Outlook 2020

  • 1. .
  • 3. DIVERGENCE TO SET TONE FOR 2020 Off late, several polarizing trends have been observed on the Global as well as Domestic front which are hard to overlook. Such diverging trends can be seen in many segments of the economy like Economy Vs. Markets, Value Vs. Growth, Yields of G-Sec/AAA Vs. AA/A, Headline Inflation Vs. Food Inflation, etc. These divergences can be managed by investing in themes that are at their inflection or turnaround points. This document aims to delve deeper in assessing such divergent trends and ways to navigate through the same. . 3
  • 4. Rear-View Mirror: Glancing Through 2019 (Equity) . 4Source: Morgan Stanley, Data as of Dec 18,2019. PSU – Public Sector Undertaking, FM – Finance Minister, FPI – Foreign Portfolio Investor, MPC – Monetary Policy Committee, GDP – Gross Domestic Product, Jan/19 Feb/19 Mar/19 Apr/19 May/19 Jun/19 Jul/19 Aug/19 Sep/19 Oct/19 Nov/19 Dec/19 35,000 36,000 37,000 38,000 39,000 40,000 41,000 42,000 S&PBSESensexLevels Interim Budget F20 presented Re-election of incumbent Govt. with a clear mandate in India F20 Union Budget: INR 700 Bn Recapitalization of PSU banks US announces tariff hikes on Chinese Imports FM announces withdrawal of Enhanced Surcharge of FPI and Domestic Investors US Federal Reserve announcement to buy $60 bnT-Bills/month Increased Tension in Kashmir MPC cuts GDP growth estimate for F2020 to 6.1% from 6.9% Telecom operators announce tariff hikes from December GDP growth slumps to 4.5% Closure of Phase 1 US- China Trade deal Corporate Tax Cut announced by the FM
  • 5. Recap: Our Calls In 2019 SIP – Systematic Investment Plan, STP – Systematic Transfer Plan, YTM – Yield to Maturity Our Calls Rationale Invest in Asset Allocation Schemes Invest in Value & Special Situations theme Positive on Smallcap & Multicap space Staggered investment in the form of SIP/STP Buy on Accrual Schemes Markets expected to remain volatile Divergence between Value & Growth & probable special situations opportunities Smallcap valuations reasonable post recent corrections Mid cycle. Recommend accumulating equities Valuations (Repo minus YTM) attractive RECAP . 5
  • 6. AA S S E T M A N A G E M N T Growth of ICICI Prudential Asset Allocator Fund (FoF) . ICICI Prudential Asset Allocator Fund (FoF) began its journey with an AUM of 6.7 Crs in Jan’19 and closed at 6,002 Crs in Dec-19 Data as of Dec 31, 2019. Source: MFI Explorer. The AUM movement is illustrated since the scheme’s re-positioning i.e. Feb 4, 2019. MFI Explorer is a tool provided by ICRA Online Ltd. For their standard disclaimer please visit http://www.icraonline.com/legal/standard-disclaimer.html. ICICI Prudential Asset Allocator Fund (FoF) (erstwhile ICICI Prudential Advisor Series - Conservative Fund), is an ended fund of funds scheme investing in equity oriented schemes, debt oriented schemes and gold ETFs/schemes. The scheme was re-positioned on Feb 4, 2019. 6 18 315 765 1,234 1,720 2,340 3,041 3,569 4,372 5,228 6,002 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Scheme AUM Movement (INR Crs – approx. figures)
  • 7. AA S S E T M A N A G E M N T 2020 – Invest your way to Financial Freedom through “ICICI Prudential FREEDOM SIP” . Receive Your Monthly Payout through SWPGrow Your Wealth through SIP Switch to Target Scheme SIP – Systematic Investment Plan, SWP – Systematic Withdrawal Plan. ICICI Prudential Freedom SIP is an optional feature offered by ICICI Prudential AMC. This feature does not in any way give assurance of the performance of any of the Schemes of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund or provide any guarantee of withdrawals through SWP mode. Freedom SIP allows investors to switch the SIP investments to a target scheme, post completion of the SIP tenure & monthly SWP will continue from the target scheme. 7
  • 9. Global Indices Performance in CY2019 9 Germany - DAX Index; China - SSE Composite Index; France - CAC 40 Index; Japan - Nikkei; Eurozone - Euronext 100; Hong Kong - HangSeng; US - Dow Jones; Singapore - Strait Times; Russia - RTS Index; Indonesia - Jakarta Composite Index; U.K. - FTSE; South Korea - Kospi; Brazil - Ibovespa Sao Paulo Index; Indonesia – Jakarta Composite Index; Switzerland – Swiss Market Index; Taiwan – Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation; India – S&P BSE Sensex; Returns in % terms. GDP – Gross Domestic Product. Data Source: MFI & ACEMF; Returns are absolute returns for the index calculated between December 31, 2018 – December 26, 2019. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Map source: mapchart.net.Map not to scale. This map has been used for design and representational purpose only, it does not depict the geographical boundaries of the country. These do not conform to the external boundaries of India recognized by the Survey of India. MFI Explorer is a tool provided by ICRA Online Ltd. For their standard disclaimer please visit http://www.icraonline.com/legal/standard- disclaimer.html. Source of US GDP data: Bureau of Economic Analysis (US Dept. of Commerce). . 44.0 27.5 27.2 26.0 23.4 23.2 22.7 20.6 19.5 14.1 13.4 7.8 7.7 5.0 2.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 Russia France Switzerla nd Germany Taiwan Brazil US China Japan India UK Hong Kong South Korea Singapore Indonesia Returns(%) Returns Performance - 2019
  • 10. US Fed’s Double Tightening and Global Growth US Fed’s double tightening (rate hike until Dec-18 + Balance Sheet Contraction until July-19), squeezed global liquidity thereby hampering Global growth Source: Edelweiss Securities Ltd. Data as of Sep 30, 2019. DM – Developed Markets, EM – Emerging Markets. IIP – Index of Industrial Production, MMA – Monthly Moving Average 3700 3900 4100 4300 4500 1.10 1.40 1.70 2.00 2.30 2.60 Sep 17 Mar 18 Sep 18 Mar 19 Sep 19 (USDBn) (%) US Fed Rate Hike & Balance Sheet Expansion Fed funds rate Fed Balance Sheet - RHS 1 4 7 10 (2) 0 2 4 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep 18 Sep 19 (3MMA,%YoY) (3MMA,%YoY) Global growth has hit lows World IIP DM IIP EM IIP (RHS) . 10
  • 12. Largecap, Midcap, Smallcap Returns S&P BSE Sensex Closed at 41,164 S&P BSE Midcap Closed at 14,801 S&P BSE Smallcap Closed at 13,435 28% 6% 14% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2017 2018 2019 S&P BSE Sensex Returns 48% -13% -4% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2017 2018 2019 S&P BSE Midcap Returns 60% -24% -9% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2017 2018 2019 S&P BSE Smallcap Returns Smallcaps and Midcaps continued their underperformance relative to Largecaps for the second year in a row Source: BSEIndia; Data as of Dec 26, 2019; Past performance may or may not be sustained in future . 12
  • 13. Rate sensitive sectors performed well during 2019 25 23 22 21 18 13 12 10 -2 -2 -4 -5 -10 -11 -12 -13-16 -6 4 14 24 34 Realty Energy CD Bankex Finance Telecom IT Oil&Gas FMCG Power HC BasicMat. CG Auto Metal Infra Returns(%) Sector Performance Realty and Energy were leaders whereas Metals and Infra were major laggards All indices are of S&P BSE and carry the prefix of S&P BSE; Abbreviated CD - S&P BSE Consumer Durables; CG - S&P BSE Capital Goods; FMCG - S&P BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods; HC - S&P BSE Health Care; Infra. - S&P BSE India Infrastructure; IT - S&P BSE Information Technology, NBFC – Non-banking Finance Companies. Data Source: MFI, ACEMF ; Returns are absolute returns for the TRI variant of the index calculated between December 31, 2018– December 27, 2019; Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. The sectors)/stock(s) mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in this sector(s)/stock(s). MFI Explorer is a tool provided by ICRA Online Ltd. For their standard disclaimer please visit http://www.icraonline.com/legal/standard-disclaimer.html . 13
  • 14. FPI & DII Flows in 2019 FPI flows bounced back sharply post last year’s dismal flows -30,000 -10,000 10,000 30,000 50,000 Jan-Mar2017 Apr-Jun2017 July-Sep2017 Oct-Dec2017 Jan-Mar2018 Apr-Jun2018 July-Sep2018 Oct-Dec2018 Jan-Mar2019 Apr-Jun2019 July-Sep2019 Oct-Dec2019 FPI & DII Net Flows (in Rs. Crs) FPI Net Flows (in Rs. Crs) DII Net Flows (in Rs. Crs) Source: NSDL, BSEIndia; Data as of Dec 26, 2019; FPI – Foreign Portfolio Investors; DII – Domestic Institutional Investors . 14
  • 15. MARKETS IN 2019 – SOME RANDOM EVENTS
  • 16. Unicorn Valuations UNICORN IS A PRIVATELY HELD START-UP COMPANY VALUED AT $1 BILLION Many Unicorns in the Venture Capital space collapsed recently Source: Pitchbook . 16
  • 17. Japanization of Interest Rates Total outstanding debt globally in negative yield zone is close to US $ 11 Trillion out of US $ 55 Trillion 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 OutstandingDebt($Tn) Negative Yield ($ Trillion) Source: Reuters, Data as of Dec 23, 2019 . 17
  • 18. Passive Edge The unravelling of stock pickers accelerated after the financial crisis, when investors flocked to low cost index funds. More money is now being managed in passive than active US Equity Funds Source: Reuters, Data as of Aug-19 . 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.2 3.9 4 4.1 4.3 4 4.3 4.4 4.3 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Active Vs. Passive Stock Funds AUM ($ Tn) Active Stocks Funds ($ Trillion) Passive Stock Funds ($ Trillion) 18
  • 19. Apple beats Energy 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Apple Marketcap Vs. S&P 500 Energy Index Marketcap ($ Tn) Apple ($ Tn) S&P 500 Energy ($ Tn) Apple’s share price surged ~70% this year which was more than the Marketcap of entire US energy stocks put together Source: Financial Times, Data as of Dec 26, 2019. The data is for illustration purpose to give a view of the market scenario and is not a recommendation of the stock . 19
  • 20. OUR EQUITY OUTLOOK CAPTURES Select Diverging Trends Positive and Negative Guiding Factors for the Markets in 2020 Market Checklist: Our 'VCTS' Framework Investment Themes for 2020 Product Recommendations . 20
  • 22. Economy-Market Divergence . 22GDP – Gross Domestic Product. Data as of Sep 30, 2019. Source: Edelweiss Securities, NSE 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 GDP Nifty50Index Nifty 50 Vs. GDP growth Nifty 50 GDP 2% 4% 6% 8% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 GDP Nifty50EarningsGrowth Nifty 50 Earnings Growth Vs. GDP growth Nifty Earnings Growth Real GDP Growth Currently, markets do not represent the economy correctly. This divergence has existed since the last 3 years
  • 23. Divergence – Emerging Markets Vs. Developed Markets . Significant divergence between Emerging and Developed Markets clearly indicates investor preference for less risky assets 113 155 70 90 110 130 150 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Emerging Market Vs. Developed Market Indices Emerging Markets Developed Markets 23 For Emerging Markets, MSCI Emerging Market Index Values have been considered. For Developed Markets, S&P 500 Index values have been considered. Prices have been re-based to 100. Data as of December 23, 2019. Source: Reuters. Past performance may or may not sustain in future
  • 24. Economic Divergence – Consumption & Savings Data is Calendar year data. Source: Kotak Securities . India’s growth in the last 5 years was fuelled primarily by consumption which was supported by leverage and not income growth 58 57 56 56 57 56 55 56 56 58 58 59 59 59 59 24 24 23 23 24 26 24 24 22 20 20 18 17 17 17 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E Private Consumption Vs. Household Savings Private consumption/GDP (%, LHS) Household savings/GDP (%, RHS) 24
  • 25. Index Divergence – All time high markets Vs. Declining Share Prices . 25 Baring few growth stocks, markets have broadly underperformed. This makes ‘VALUE’ as a theme relatively attractive to ‘GROWTH’ 43.1% 20.9% 6.2% 0.7% -4.3% -23.2% -56.5%-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% Top10 Top11-20 Top21-50 Top51-100 101-250 251-500 >=501 Marketcap Change (Since Feb 2018 till Dec 2019) Nifty 50 Index gained 1409 points during the year out of which below 10 stocks added 1652 points and the rest 40 stocks gave negative contribution Company Name Returns Contribution in Points Reliance Industries Ltd 404 ICICI Bank Ltd 296 HDFC Bank Ltd 250 HDFC Ltd 177 Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd 144 Bharti Airtel Ltd 87 Bajaj Finance Ltd 87 TCS Ltd 86 Infosys Ltd 68 Axis Bank Ltd 53 Total Universe considered is 1690 listed stocks. Stocks are arranged in descending order as per Marketcap. Marketcap change is considered for period between 28-Feb-18 and 20-Dec-19. Source: Capitaline.. Past performance may or may not sustain in future Universe considered is Nifty 50 Index. Source: Capitaline. Returns are calculated between 1-Jan-2019 and 25-Dec- 2019. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. The stocks mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these stocks
  • 26. Index Divergence – Value Vs. Growth P/E – Price to Earnings, P/B: Price to Book. Ex – Excluding. Source : NSE, Capitaline, Data as of December 23, 2019. Past performance may or may not sustain in future . 26 4.9 3.9 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 P/B(x) Nifty 50 Index – Nifty Top 10 P/B Vs. Nifty Bottom 40 P/B Nifty 10 Ex Bottom 40 Nifty 40 Ex Top 10 P/E – Price to Earnings, P/B: Price to Book. Ex – Excluding. Source : NSE, Capitaline, Data as of December 23, 2019. Past performance may or may not sustain in future 38.5 26.3 20 25 30 35 40 45 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Nifty 50 Index – Nifty Top 10 P/E Vs. Nifty Bottom 40 P/E Nifty 10 Ex Bottom 40 Nifty 40 Ex Top 10 The narrow rally of Nifty 50 Index led to the polarization in index valuations
  • 27. 27Data as of December 2019. Source: ICICI Securities. Largecaps: top 100 Mcap companies, Midcaps – Next 150, Smallcaps – Next 250. Only profit making companies are considered. 0.6% 2.3% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Earnings Yield Spread of Mid and Smallcaps over Largecaps Midcap Smallcap Smallcaps are currently offering better Margin of Safety in terms of risk spread over Largecaps Marketcap Divergence – Earnings Yield Spreads over Largecaps .
  • 28. 28 Marketcap Divergence – Largecap, Midcap & Smallcap Top 100 indicates top 100 companies by market capitalization,101-250 indicates next 150 companies by market cap and above 250 indicates 251st onwards by marketcap. Source : Edelweiss Securities, Data as of December 31,2019 Share in the Overall Market Cap (%) Index 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Mar-19 Jun-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Top- 100 79 75 74 71 79 77 78 79 78 81 75 74 72 65 70 73 73 73.8 73.7 101- 250 11 12 12 13 11 12 13 13 14 13 14 15 15 16 16 16 16 15.7 15.8 Above 250 11 13 14 16 10 11 9 8 8 6 10 11 14 18 14 12 11.7 10.5 10.5 The recent correction in Smallcap space has led to Marketcap divergence in terms of valuations .
  • 29. Marketcap Returns Divergence – Largecap, Midcap and Smallcap Over the last 2 years, there has been a significant divergence in returns posted by Large, Mid and Smallcaps 13 (22) (39) (50) (40) (30) (20) (10) 0 10 20 Jan-18 Feb-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 %Returnssince1-Jan-18 Largecap Vs. Midcap Vs. Smallcap Returns (1-Jan-18 to 10-Dec-19) Nifty 50 Index Nifty Midcap 100 Index Nifty Smallcap 100 Index . 29 Source: Edelweiss Alternative Research. Data as of Dec 10, 2019. Data in % terms. Past performance may or may not sustain in future.
  • 30. GUIDING FACTORS FOR THE MARKETS IN 2020 .
  • 31. Positive Catalysts Ample Liquidity – Global & Domestic Closure of US- China Phase one trade deal Recent Government Reforms Earnings Recovery Receding Agrarian Crisis . 31
  • 32. Increasing Global Liquidity 0 20 40 60 80 100 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 (%) Most broad-based easing since Lehman crisis % OF CENTRAL BANKS EASING (1,000) (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E Net change in balance sheet of Developed Market central banks, calendar year-ends, 2011-20E (US$ bn) Fed ECB BoJ Total CHANGE IN BALANCE SHEETS OF DEVELOPED MARKETS . 32Central Banks Policy easing data as of Dec-19. Source: Edelweiss Securities. Developed Market Central Banks Data as on Calendar year ends. Source: Kotak Securities. ECB – European Central Bank, BoJ – Bank of Japan
  • 33. Domestic Liquidity Aided By Lower Interest Rates Data as of Dec-19. Source: Kotak Securities, RBI, SLF – Standing Liquidity Facility, MSF – Marginal Standing Facility, LAF – Liquidity Adjustment Facility (3,000) (2,000) (1,000) 0 1,000 2,000 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Total Liquidity in the system (INR Bn) Net LAF Net term repo Others (MSF/SLF) Total liquidity deficit 6.50 6.25 6.00 5.75 5.40 5.15 5.00 5.30 5.60 5.90 6.20 6.50 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Repo Rate (%) . 33
  • 34. US-China Trade War Timeline & Phase 1 deal closure Hostility between US and China continues with counter tariffs & China blaming US for stalled trade negotiations The 2 sides mutually agree to re-start negotiations on the sidelines of G20 Devaluation of Yuan by China irks the US. The US announces likelihood of US- China Phase 1 trade deal US-China negotiators agree on trade clauses The phase 1 trade deal is implemented just before the next scheduled tariff hike The US announces likelihood of US- China Phase 1 trade deal US-China negotiators agree on trade clauses Hostility between and China continu with counter tariff China blaming US stalled trade negotia Devaluation of Yuan by China irks the US. The 2 sides mutual agree to re-start negotiations on th sidelines of G20 The phase 1 trade deal is implemente just before the nex scheduled tariff hik May 2019 Source: Business Insider . June 2019 August 2019 October 2019 November 2019 December 2019 34
  • 35. Recent Reforms REFORMS Corporate Tax Cut measures introduced in line with global peers (a step towards global standardization) Major positive overhaul in few sectors including NBFC, Telecom, Housing Bank books cleanup activity a positive reform. Bank book cleanup activity initially led to a jump in NPL ratio which is now declining Move to reduce Government stake in major public sector entities to help reduce financial burden Implementation of GST an efficient version of indirect tax system Source: CLSA. NPL – Non performing loans. NBFC – Non Banking Financial Company, GST – Goods and Services Tax . 35
  • 36. Earnings Recovery Data as of Q2 FY20. Earnings growth is represented by PAT growth. Source: Edelweiss Securities There has been an incremental pick-up in earnings post corporate tax cuts 20% 18% 25% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nifty Earnings growth . 36
  • 37. Receding Agrarian Crisis . 37 Increase in food prices may keep deflation in check leading to revival in rural demand Centre + States spend on rural have incrementally improved Sufficient water levels due to good monsoons to boost farm produce -1.7 6.9 16.9 -6.7 6.0 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 (%, yoy) India food inflation (%) Global food Price 4.1 7.6 9.6 10.8 12.3 5% 14% 27% 12% 14% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E Amtin(Tn) Rural Thrust Centre + states spend on rural (Rs. tn) Growth (%, yoy) 53 67 62 61 86 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Nov' FY16 Nov' FY17 Nov' FY18 Nov' FY19 Nov' FY20 Water availability in reservoirs (% of total storage) Source: Spark Capital
  • 38. Negative Catalysts GLOBAL FACTORS DOMESTIC FACTORS • US-China trade war escalating • US Election outcome • Hong Kong unrest, Brexit and Oil price volatility due to possible tensions between Saudi and Iran • Fiscal deficit concerns • Credit concerns – Contagion Effect • Revenue collection uncertainty • Pace of Growth (GDP) pickup • Corporate Earnings Trajectory GDP – Gross Domestic Product . 38
  • 40. ‘VCTS’ Back To The Neutral Zone With Valuations being fully priced in, Business Cycle in low to mid phase and moderating flows, the framework suggests that markets are in accumulation phase. We recommend accumulating equities in a staggered manner P/E – Price-to-Earnings; P/B – Price to Book Value Ratio; MF – Mutual Funds; FPI – Foreign Portfolio Investors; GDP – Gross Domestic Product, SIP – Systematic Investment Plan, FII – Foreign Institutional Investor . 40 VALUATIONS – FULLY PRICED IN CYCLE – Quality: High; Non-Quality – Low to Mid TRIGGERS – WATCHFUL SENTIMENTS – NOT EUPHORIC Market Valuations Business Cycle Triggers Sentiments • High P/E • P/B – Above Average • Moderate Marketcap to GDP • Moderate Capacity Utilisation • Low Credit Growth • Flows moderating • SIP Flows steady • FII Flows picking up • Union Budget 2020- 2021 • Real Estate Debt De- leveraging • Credit growth pick-up • Govt. Reforms
  • 41. In-House Equity Valuation Index: Back to the Neutral Zone Equity Valuation index is calculated by assigning equal weights to Price-to-Earnings (PE), Price-to-Book (PB), G-Sec*PE and Market Cap to GDP ratio. G-Sec – Government Securities. GDP – Gross Domestic Product; Data as of Dec 31, 2019 The Valuation Index indicates that valuations are in a neutral zone and hence it is a good time to remain constructive on equities with a long term perspective 41 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Invest in Equities Aggressively invest in Equities Neutral Incremental Money to Debt Book Partial Profits 112.67
  • 42. Valuations – P/E and P/B Above 10-yr Average Source: NSE India; Data as of Dec 24, 2019; P/E – Price to Earnings; P/B – Price to Book Value ; SD – Standard Deviation 28.6 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 P/EValuations Nifty P/E Valuations Nifty 50 PE Average -1 SD +/- 1SD 3.79 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Nifty50P/BRatio Nifty 50 P/B ratio Nifty 50 P/B ratio Average -1 SD +/- 1SD 42
  • 43. Valuations – Marketcap To GDP Source: BSE, RIMES, Morgan Stanley Research; Data as of Nov 2019; GDP - Gross Domestic Product 93% 80% 77% 70% 80% 90% 100% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Marketcap to GDP ratio below 100 2017 2018 2019 The Marketcap to GDP ratio has corrected over the last 3 years and is contained well below 100. This highlights that valuations are not in euphoric zone 43
  • 44. Business Cycle – Capacity Utilisation 0.5 68.9 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 (%YoY) Gross capital formation (% YoY) Capacity utilisation % (RHS) Gross Capital Formation and Capacity utilisation are at the bottom. This highlights that the economy is in mid to low phase Source: RBI, JM Financial, Data as of September 2019 44
  • 45. Business Cycle – Credit Growth lagging Deposit Growth Source: RBI, Kotak Securities; Data as of Dec 6, 2019 10% 15% 8% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Credit Growth 2017 2018 2019 3% 9% 10% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Deposit Growth 2017 2018 2019 45
  • 46. We are slowly approaching a better time to invest and hence, it may be a good time to add equities at this juncture Cycle . 46 BURST BORING BUBBLEBOOM • Lehman Crisis 2008 • Dot com burst – 2001 BETTER TIME TO INVEST • Equity Markets currently and in 2012 • Real Estate in 2013 • e-Commerce in 2014 • Bitcoin in 2017 • Equity in 2007 & 2000 • Equity Markets in 2011 & 2017 • Equity Markets in 2013-16 • Equity Markets in 2009-11 • Debt Accrual Schemes in 2019
  • 47. Triggers For 2020 UNION BUDGET REAL ESTATE DEBT DE – LEVERAGING CREDIT GROWTH PICK-UP GOVERNMENT REFORMS 2020 TRIGGERS . 47
  • 48. Sentiments Domestic Mutual Fund Flows (Equity) have been moderating 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Domestic Mutual fund equity flows (in Rs bn) 2019 2018 2017 SIP Flows as a % of total equity flows have gone up 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 SIP (Rs. Bn) SIP as % of Total Source: Morgan Stanley. Data as of December 23, 2019. 48 The increase in SIP flows can be attributed to midcaps and smallcaps. However, midcap and smallcap performance has been muted for the last couple of years which may lead to volatility in the flows going forward
  • 50. Investment Themes For 2020 SIP – Systematic Investment Plan, STP – Systematic Transfer Plan ECONOMY-MARKET DIVIDE Current Market rally is driven by select Growth stocks making Value as a theme attractive MARKETCAP DIVERGENCE Smallcaps have corrected significantly in the recent past whereas Largecap valuations are above historic averages. This makes Smallcaps attractive VOLATILITY Volatility is expected to continue given the current Global and Domestic economic scenarios. Aim to manage volatility through Asset Allocation Schemes MARKET VALUATIONS With market valuations fully priced in and business cycle in mid to low phase, we believe it is a good time to accumulate equities in a staggered manner through SIP/STP . 50
  • 51. Summary Equity Outlook – 2020 • Union Budget, Real Estate debt de-leveraging and Credit growth pick up key triggers for the markets • Constructive on equities and recommend accumulating equities in a staggered manner through SIP/STP • Stark divergence in Growth and Value themes. Value and Special Situations theme expected to play out well • Positive on Smallcap post recent underperformance and reasonable valuations. Multicap space can be looked at from a long term perspective • Asset Allocation schemes may be considered to address near term volatility • Continue to remain watchful of de-escalation of US-China trade war, US Election outcome, Central banks monetary easing regime and corporate earnings trajectory. 51
  • 52. Equity & Hybrid Scheme Recommendations for 2020 DIVERGENCE ACCUMULATION VOLATILITY VALUE VS. GROWTH & MARKETCAP DIVERGENCE Marketcap Divergence – • ICICI Prudential Smallcap Fund TO BENEFIT FROM VOLATILITY FOR LONG TERM WEALTH CREATION Value and Special Situation Theme – • ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund • ICICI Prudential India Opportunities Fund SIP/STP in • ICICI Prudential Smallcap Fund • ICICI Prudential Multicap Fund • ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund • ICICI Prudential Asset Allocator Fund (FoF) . 52
  • 53. Our Asset Allocation Bouquet . ICICI Prudential Regular Savings Fund* ICICI Prudential Equity Savings Fund CICI P d i l 15 - 50% ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund 30 - 80% ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund ICICI P d i 10 - 80% ICICI Prudential Asset Allocator Fund (FoF)*^ ICICI Prudential Equity & Debt Fund 65 - 80% 10 - 25% A All 0-100% The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per the Scheme Information Document, *These schemes will attract debt taxation. ^Investors may please note that they will be bearing the recurring expenses of this Scheme in addition to the expenses of the underlying Schemes in which this Scheme makes investment. 53
  • 54. Our SIP Recommendations . ICICI Prudential India Opportunities Fund (An open ended equity scheme following special situations theme) ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund (An open ended equity scheme following a value investment strategy) ICICI Prudential Smallcap Fund (An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in smallcap stocks) ICICI Prudential Midcap Fund (An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in mid cap stocks) ICICI Prudential Multicap Fund (An open ended equity scheme investing across large cap, mid cap, small cap stocks) 54
  • 55. FIXED INCOME OUTLOOK 55 Carrying forward our theme in the Fixed Income space as well, we are currently witnessing diverging trends like yields of Gsec/AAA Vs. AA/A, Credit Growth Vs. Deposit growth, CPI Inflation Vs. Food Inflation etc. In the subsequent slides we will try to cover these aspects highlighting our theme for 2020
  • 56. Rear-View Mirror: Glancing Through 2019 (Fixed Income) 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 Jan/19 Feb/19 Mar/19 Apr/19 May/19 Jun/19 Jul/19 Aug/19 Sep/19 Oct/19 Nov/19 Dec/19 India10-YrG-SecYield(%) Govt. Infuses 109 Bn in 4 PSU Banks Interim Budget Presented RBI approves interim dividend of INR 280Bn RBI to inject liquiditythrough USD/INR Swap RBI cuts rateby 25 bps to 6% General electionsresult RBI shifts policy stance to accommodative, cuts repo rate by 25bps 10 Year Gsec hits lowest point since demonetisation Corporate Taxcut announcedby theFM Unconventional rate cutof 35bps by the RBI GDP growth slumps to 4.5%, RBI announces Operational Twist Source: Morgan Stanley, Data as of Dec 27,2019. RBI – Reserve Bank of India, FM – Finance Minister, NBFC – Non Banking Financial Company, GDP – Gross Domestic Product, IBC – Indian Bankruptcy Code. PSU – Public Sector Undertaking NBFCs came undertheambitof IBC . 56
  • 57. OUR FIXED INCOME OUTLOOK CAPTURES Divergence 2019 Vs. 2020 Case for Short/ Medium Duration Schemes Case for Accrual Schemes Product Recommendations . 57
  • 59. Our View – 2019 Monetary Stimulus to 2020 Fiscal Stimulus YEAR GONE BY FISCAL STIMULUS GOING FORWARD FISCAL STIMULUS MONETARY STIMULUS MONETARY STIMULUS Monetary Stimulus was in the driving seat in 2019 with: • 135 bps rate for CYTD 19 • Ample Liquidity • Accommodative Stance We believe that monetary stimulus will play the supporting role and fiscal stimulus will take the driving seat in 2020. However, fiscal deficit remains a constraint. STIMULUS STIMULUS STIMULUSSTIMULUS SULUS .
  • 60. 2019 Liquidity Deficit to 2020 Surplus Liquidity 426.1 398.3 448.6 390 400 410 420 430 440 450 460 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 -400000 -300000 -200000 -100000 0 100000 200000 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Interbank Liquidity (In Crs.) Deficit Surplus In 2019, RBI reserves were highest ever due to dollar purchases RBI Forex Reserves (In US$ Bn.) Dec-19 RBI’s liquidity stance and forex intervention has kept the liquidity abundant in the system. This has kept downward pressure on the short term rates. . 60Source Morgan Stanley Research. Data as of Dec 25, 2019, Forex – Foreign Exchange
  • 61. 2019 Deflation to Reflation in Food Prices Source: CRISIL Research, Data as on30-Nov-2019 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Inflation Data Core CPI Food inlfation Fuel and light inflation Headline CPI Owing to Food Inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers are at its 40 months high as of Nov-2019. Food prices, due to its transitory nature, are expected to normalize . 61
  • 62. 2019 Low to 2020 Moderate – GST Collection Source : Spark Research, GST – Goods & Services Tax, Data as on 30-Nov-2019 800 850 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 Sep/17 Nov/17 Jan/18 Mar/18 May/18 Jul/18 Sep/18 Nov/18 Jan/19 Mar/19 May/19 Jul/19 Sep/19 Nov/19 GST Collection (Rs. Bn) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Total filings (Mn.) GST revenue has started to pick up and filings remained stable. However, the same needs to be monitored for establishing a growth trend . 62
  • 63. CASE FOR SHORT TO MEDIUM DURATION SCHEMES .
  • 64. Low Real Returns Opportunistic & Trading exposure Most Favoured Space : Better Accrual +Opportunistic Capital Appreciation Ideal for Short term parking with higher exposure to Corporate bonds Bird’s Eye View of Fixed Income Space Divergence between Short Term Rates and Long Term Rates Yield Curve – Sovereign and Corporate (In %) . KEY TAKEAWAY: Accrual/spread assets main theme to play. Capital Appreciation theme should be played opportunistically. We prefer 2-5 Yr segment due to probable high total returns 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 3 Mnths 6 Mnths 1 Yrs 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 10 Yrs 13 Yrs 15 Yrs Corporate Bond - CP and AAA Government Security - Tbill and Gsec 64Source : RBI, CCIL India, CRISIL Research, Data as of Dec 25, 2019
  • 65. Fiscal Concerns may put pressure on the Long End Yields . Increased borrowings from Central Govt., State Govt. and Central PSU Enterprises (Total Gross Deficit) has heightened fiscal concerns for India. This may keep yields at the longer end of the curve volatile 65 Source: Kotak Research, E – Estimates, GFD – Gross Fiscal Deficit, PSU – Public Sector Undertaking. GDP – Gross Domestic ProductData as of Dec 25, 2019 2.5 6.0 6.5 4.8 5.9 4.9 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.81.5 2.4 2.9 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.1 2.9 3.0 1.1 1.7 1.5 1.1 1.3 1.3 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.6 2.2 5.2 10.1 10.9 7.9 9.2 8.2 7.4 7.7 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.9 9.0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E Gross Fiscal Deficit as a % of GDP Central GFD State GFD Central PSU borrowing Total GFD Fiscal Deficit
  • 66. In order to curb the steepening of the yield curve the RBI resorted to “Operation Twist” Term Premium - Spread between Government security yields (10 Yr/ 1 Yr) at the highest levels since 2010 RBI in Dec-2019 introduced “Operation Twist” to reduce term premium. This has made the case for tactical investing at the long end of the curve. Month OMOs by RBI (Rs. Bn) Purchase Sale Objective Jan-19 400 - Adding Liquidity Feb-19 350 0.2 Mar-19 375 0.3 Apr-19 0.4 0.1 May-19 250 - Jun-19 275 - Sep-19 7.55 - Oct-19 0.55 0.05 Dec-19 200 153 Reducing term premium Operation Twist RBI OMOs to Operation Twist . Source: Morgan Stanley. Data as of Dec 30, 2019. OMO – Open Market Operations 66
  • 67. Lower end Yields – Real Returns low . 67 5.0 5.2 5.3 6.3 6.4 6.6 8.0 7.7 5.2 5.9 6.3 6.8 7.1 7.5 7.6 7.6 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 3 Mnths 6 Mnths 1 Yrs 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 10 Yrs 13 Yrs 15 Yrs Interest Rates (%) Government Security - Tbill and Gsec Corporate Bond - CP and AAA CPI Inflation Positive real returns Inflation Extreme short end (less than 3 months), due to ample liquidity has moved into lower real returns territory. Hence moving up the yield curve is recommended Low real returns Source: Kotak Research, RBI, Data as on 25-Dec-2019, Inflation data as on Nov-2019. Inflation for Nov-19 (5.5%) is considered as the base reading for the graph
  • 68. Summary – Case for Short to Medium Duration Schemes . 68 • Recommend combination of short term assets and long term assets with a portfolio maturity range of 2-5 Years • Focus should be on spread assets while Capital Appreciation strategy would be more opportunistic in approach • Short and medium end of the curve may deliver higher risk adjusted returns • Fiscal concern and inflation in the first half may keep the longer end volatile • Hence, use the longer end of the yield curve for trading strategy, as the rate cuts might be opportunistic • Extreme short end (less than 3 months), due to ample liquidity may give lower real returns
  • 69. Case for Accrual Schemes Current Scenario and historical trend of rate transmission Lack of transmission Case for investment in accrual schemes Why ICICI Prudential Accrual Funds? . 69
  • 70. Current Scenario . 70 • RBI has delivered 135 bps rate cut in CY'19 • Rate Transmission channels are broken due to credit concerns, NBFC slowdown and crowding-out effect • Banks Marginal Cost of Lending Rates (MCLR) continues to remain elevated, which has further hampered the rate transmission process • Despite the rate cuts, the corporate bond rates continue to remain elevated • Also, high small savings rate have been a deterrent for banks to reduce deposit rate even post rate cuts
  • 71. Divergence – Sharp Policy Rate Cuts But Transmission Limited . 71 -135 -40 -39 5 -160 -140 -120 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 Repo Rate MCLR WALR - fresh rupee loans WALR - outstanding rupee loans InBasisPoints(bps) Monetary Transmission from Feb 2019 till Oct 2019 (In Bps) Source: UBS Research, MCLR – Marginal Cost of Lending Rate, WALR – Weighted Average Lending Rate, Data as on 31-Oct-2019 Despite the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) reducing repo rates by 135bps, the weighted average lending rate (WALR) on fresh rupee loans of commercial banks declined merely by around 40bps while it increased by 5bps for WALR on outstanding rupee loans during the same period
  • 72. Transmission – Historical Trend . 72 25 -125 -50 -25 50 -135 -7 -63 -55 -52 36 -44 -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 -150 -130 -110 -90 -70 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 CY 2014 CY 2015 CY 2016 CY 2017 CY 2018 CY 2019 Monetary Transmission Repo Rate (Y-o-Y absolute bps) WALR (Y-o-Y absolute bps) : RHS Source: UBS Research, WALR – Weighted Average Lending Rate, Data as on 31-Oct-2019 Despite the repo rate being reduced from 6.5% in Jan 2019 to 5.15% till date (135bps), the WALR reduced merely from 9.97% in Jan 2019 to 9.53% till date i.e. 44bps. On an absolute basis, the transmission has been the least in last 5 years
  • 73. Transmission – Historical Trend . 73 Spread of Banks Weighted Average Domestic Term Deposit Rate (WADTDR) and Weighted Average Lending Rate (WALR) over Repo in October 2019 has been the highest in the last 5 years Date WADTDR (%) Repo Rate (%) Difference (bps) Sep-14 8.7 8.0 70 Mar-15 8.6 7.8 82 Sep-15 8.0 7.3 78 Mar-16 7.7 6.8 98 Sep-16 7.4 6.5 91 Mar-17 7.0 6.3 72 Sep-17 6.7 6.0 65 Mar-18 6.7 6.0 67 Sep-18 6.8 6.5 27 Mar-19 6.9 6.3 64 Sep-19 6.8 5.4 144 Oct-19 6.8 5.2 160 Date WALR (%) Repo Rate (%) Difference (bps) Sep-14 11.5 8.0 352 Mar-15 11.1 7.8 332 Sep-15 10.8 7.3 352 Mar-16 10.5 6.8 372 Sep-16 10.4 6.5 385 Mar-17 9.7 6.3 349 Sep-17 9.4 6.0 342 Mar-18 9.3 6.0 334 Sep-18 9.7 6.5 317 Mar-19 9.7 6.3 348 Sep-19 9.6 5.4 417 Oct-19 9.5 5.2 438 Source: Kotak Research, WALR – Weighted Average Lending Rate, Data as on 31-Oct-2019
  • 74. Divergence – Sharp fall in lending by Banks & NBFCs . 74 (5,000) 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 1HFY19 1HFY20 Total credit to commercial sector (INR Bn.) Banks NBFC-NDSI/HFC Other non-banks Foreign Total Source: Kotak Research, 31-Sep-2019. NBFC-NDSI – Non Banking Financial Company Non Deposit Taking Systematically Important, HFC – Housing Finance Company Post the credit crisis in 2019, there has been a squeeze in the flow of resources to the commercial sector. Incremental credit from Banks and NBFCs have declined in FY2020 owing to risk aversion
  • 75. Reasons for lack of transmission NBFC Credit Concerns Flight for Safety High rates of Small Savings Schemes (SSS) Bank NBFC . 75
  • 76. Divergence between Corporate Bond Yields and NBFC Yields . 76 Source : Kotak Economic Research, Data as on25-Dec-2019. NBFC – Non Banking Financial Company 8.81 40.31 3.93 34.15 (10) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 SpreadsbetweenNBFC&CorporateBonds (%) NBFC Spread over AAA & AA rated Corporate Bonds 1 year AAA NBFC-corporate bond (in bps) 5 year AAA NBFC-corporate bond (in bps) Post Sep-18, NBFC premiums over corporate bonds have gone up substantially on the back of credit concerns. This resulted in the slowdown in transmission
  • 77. Flight to Safety . 77Source : RBI, Spark Research, Data as on25-Dec-2019. SLR – statutory Liquidity Ratio. The above data points represent current market position 4.2 -1.0 1.2 3.2 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Jun/16 Sep/16 Dec/16 Mar/17 Jun/17 Sep/17 Dec/17 Mar/18 Jun/18 Sep/18 Dec/18 Mar/19 Jun/19 Sep/19 Dec/19 Net liquidity (Rs tn) One of the major bank’s corporate book (46% of the total loan book) Mar-18 Sept-18 Mar-19 Sept-19 AAA 21% 24% 39% 36% AA 22% 26% 25% 25% A 16% 21% 14% 18% Total A & above 60% 71% 78% 79% BBB 10% 13% 10% 9% Investment Grade 70% 84% 88% 88% BB & Below 18% 9% 6% 7% Unrated 13% 7% 6% 5% Instead of lending, banks started parking money with RBI at reverse repo rate i.e. most of its incremental deposits have been channelled towards SLR investments. Also, of what they have lent, A & above rated corporate bonds are 79% of such loans in September 2019 over 60% in March 2018, majorly on the back of risk aversion
  • 78. Big Thing About Small Saving Schemes (SSS) . 78 Index Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 (A) Small saving interest rate (average) 7.4% 7.4% 7.4% 7.7% 7.8% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% Post Office 5-year Recurring Deposit Account 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 7.3% 7.3% 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% Post Office 1-year Fixed Deposit Account 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% 6.9% 7.0% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% Public Provident Fund Account 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 8.0% 8.0% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9% National Savings Certificate 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 8.0% 8.0% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9% Kisan Vikas Patra 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 7.7% 7.7% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% Sukanya Samriddhi Yojna 8.1% 8.1% 8.1% 8.5% 8.5% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4% (B) Bank term deposit rate (>1 year) 6.7% 6.7% 6.7% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 6.8% 6.8% Gap (A-B) 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% Note: Kisan Vikas Patra was launched in November 2014; Sukanya Samriddhi Yojna was launched in January 2015. Banks correspond to scheduled commercial banks. We have used the SBI term deposit rate as a proxy for the December 2019 quarter as the bank term deposit rate is only available until the September 2019 quarter. Source: Ministry of Finance, UBS SSS spread over Bank Deposit Rates have remained elevated thereby restraining Banks from reducing their Deposit Rates further
  • 79. Why Accrual Funds? Industry Flows are slowing down Valuations are attractive Narrative associated with category is negative . 79
  • 80. Divergence – Corporate Bond & G-sec Spread . 80 5 6 7 8 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year Yields(%) AA AAA Gsec Repo Rate Source : CRISL Research, Data as on25-Dec-2019 Corporate bonds provide better risk-adjusted returns over G-Sec, as they can provide a better cushion from any unforeseen event. Avg. 177 bps Avg. 85 bps S P R E A D Avg. 246 bps
  • 81. . Divergence – Corporate Bond & G-sec Spread 81 Due to flight to safety, the yields on the AA and A space are still available at elevated spread over repo, providing higher accrual and margin of safety Instrument Today 1 Year Ago 3 Year 5 Year 3 Year 5 Year Yields(%) Spread over Repo Yields(%) Spread over Repo Yields(%) Spread over Repo Yields(%) Spread over Repo G-Sec 6.3 1.2 6.5 1.3 7.4 0.9 7.5 1.0 AAA Bonds 6.8 1.6 7.1 2.0 8.9 2.4 9.0 2.5 AA rated Bonds 7.4 2.3 7.8 2.7 9.4 2.9 9.6 3.1 A rated Bonds 8.9 3.7 9.3 4.2 10.4 3.9 10.5 4.0 Source : CRISIL Research, Data as on25-Dec-2019. Past performance may or may not sustain in future
  • 82. Why ICICI Prudential Accrual Funds? Investment Philosophy Robust Investment Process Strong Credit Selection Process Better Risk Adjusted Returns . 82
  • 83. SAFETY LIQUIDITY RETURNS The investment team seeks to achieve Safety, Liquidity and Returns (SLR) in order of priority for managing variety of our fixed income schemes. S L R Investment Philosophy . 83
  • 84. Robust Investment Process COMPANY SHORTLISTED FOR INVESTMENT Assessment of Management Risk & Business Risk Asset Quality Past track record of the company Cash Flows Credit Due Diligence . 84
  • 85. Strong Credit Selection Process All target credit investment proposal face multiple checks • Independent evaluation by Risk team • Decision making is not concentrated to one person • Focus not just on credit and liquidity risk but also on diversification TARGET LIST FILTERS • Independent research team • Internal Credit Analysis • External credit rating CREDIT SELECTION . 85
  • 86. Security Name Month of Downgrade to D IPRU Exposure at the time of Downgrade Security Name Month of Downgrade to D IPRU Exposure at the time of Downgrade IL&FS Financial Services Ltd. Sep-18 0 Reliance Big Pvt Ltd. Jun-19 0 IL&FS Ltd. Sep-18 0 Reliance Infrastructure Consulting & Engineers Pvt Ltd. Jun-19 0 IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd. Sep-18 0 Sintex Industries Ltd. Jun-19 0 Kwality Ltd. Sep-18 0 IL & FS Education and Technology Services Ltd. Jul-19 0 IL&FS Energy Development Company Ltd. Oct-18 0 Reliance Home Finance Ltd. Aug-19 0 IL & FS Tamil Nadu Power Co. Ltd. Jan-19 0 Sintex-BAPL Ltd. Aug-19 0 Jharkand Road Projects Implementation Co Ltd. Jan-19 0 Altico Capital India Pvt Ltd. Sep-19 0 Jorabat Shillong Expressway Ltd. Mar-19 0 Reliance Broadcast Network Ltd. Sep-19 0 Hazaribagh Ranchi Expressway Ltd. Apr-19 0 Business Broadcast News Holdings Ltd. Sep-19 0 Reliance Commercial Finance Pvt Ltd. Apr-19 0 Simplex Infra Dec-19 0 Dewan Housing Finance Corporation Ltd. Jun-19 0 Essel Infra Dec-19 0 Our exposure to securities that were downgraded last year The securities mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these securities. . 86 Total ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund Exposure at the time of Downgrade = NIL
  • 87. ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund: Spread Over Repo (Since Inception) . Data as on November 30, 2019, YTM values taken since scheme inception. Past Performance may or may not be sustained infuture. YieldSpreads(%) 87
  • 88. ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund: Spread Over Repo (Last 10 year trend) . YieldSpreads(%) Data as on November 30, 2019. YTM values taken for the last 10 years. Past Performance may or may not be sustained infuture. 88
  • 89. Summary – Case for Accrual Funds • The elevated spread of Corporate Bonds over Repo provides good accrual income and high margin of safety • We expect compression of Corporate Bond spreads over Repo to happen going forward, due to ample liquidity • We believe, hereafter, banks would start seeking higher yielding assets, implying higher risk appetite, which may narrow the spread between G-sec and Corporate Bond • We continue to focus on risk adjusted returns, rather than focusing only on YTMs • With our credit selection process we have been able to avoid any major credit stress/event on our portfolio • We continue to remain cognizant of managing liquidity, concentration, credit and duration in our accrual portfolio to provide better risk adjusted returns . 89
  • 91. Macro Outlook . 91 Indicators Dec-19 Outlook Remarks RBI Policy Rates 5.15% Neutral Opportunistic rate cuts RBI Policy Stance Accommodative Positive Growth supportive CPI inflation 5.5% (Nov 2019) Neutral First half expected to high, second half should normalize Oil Prices (USD/barrel) 68.44 Neutral Monitor long term trend CAD (% of GDP) 2.0% (Apr-Jun 2019) Positive Weak domestic growth supporting CAD Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP) 3.5% to 3.7% (Expected) Negative Weak growth and further fiscal stimulus FX Reserves (USD Bn) 449 Positive RBI looking to buy dollar 10yr G-Sec 6.54% Neutral Play opportunistically to benefit from capital appreciation Political Scenario Strong Mandate Cautious Local unrest Source : CRISIL Research, RBI, CCIL India,Data as on30-Dec-2019, CAD – Current Account Deficit, CPI - Consumer Price Index, GDP – Gross Domestic Product
  • 92. Fixed Income Strategy for 2020 . 92 Particulars View Reason Strategy Accrual/ Spread Assets Highly Positive High spread over Repo Higher allocation recommended Short/Medium Space Positive Risk Adjusted returns high Recommended for Total return strategy (Accrual + Capital Appreciation) Dynamic Duration Strategy Positive Manage duration dynamically Recommended for Total return strategy (Accrual + Capital Appreciation) Long End Space Opportunistic RBI Intervention through opportunistic rate cut + Operation twist Use trading strategy and do tactical allocation for capital appreciation Extreme Short End Negative Lower real rates Move to higher spread assets and add more duration
  • 93. Key Takeaways – Fixed Income Space • Continue to remain highly positive on accrual space/spread assets and should be the main theme for 2020 • Capital Appreciation strategy would be more tactical in approach, due to RBI’s opportunistic rate cuts • Recommend combination of short term assets and long term assets with a portfolio maturity range of 2-5 Years • Fiscal concerns and inflation in the first half may keep the longer end volatile. Hence, use the longer end of the yield curve for trading strategy • Extreme short end (less than 3 months), due to ample liquidity may give lower real returns . 93
  • 94. Triggers For 2020 FISCAL STIMULUS RESOLUTION OF STRESSED SECTOR DOMESTIC GROWTH RECOVERY EM GROWTH RECOVERY 2020 TRIGGERS . 94
  • 95. Debt Valuation Index Debt Valuation Index considers WPI, CPI, Sensex YOY returns, Gold YOY returns and Real estate YOY returns over G-Sec yield, Current Account Balance and Crude Oil Movement for calculation. WPI – Wholesale Price Index; CPI – Consumer Price Index. None of the aforesaid recommendations are based on any assumptions. These are purely for reference and the investors are requested to consult their financial advisors before investing. . 95 4.52 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Ultra Low Duration Low Duration Moderate Duration High Duration Aggressively in High Duration We recommend investors to invest in Short to Medium Duration for total return benefit or Accrual Schemes for higher carry over repo. For investors who aim to benefit from volatility we recommend investing in Dynamic Duration Schemes
  • 96. Debt Strategy to Follow . 96 Accrual Schemes Low/Short Duration Schemes Dynamic Duration Scheme BENEFITS Aim to capture current Elevated Yield Aim to mitigate interest rate volatility Aim to manage volatility by active duration management
  • 98. Fixed Income Recommendations . 98 ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund Cash Management Solution (which aims to benefit from better risk adjusted returns) ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund Accrual Schemes (which aims to benefit from capturing yields at elevated levels) ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund Dynamic Duration Schemes (which aims to benefit from volatility by actively managing duration) ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund Short/Medium Duration Schemes (which aims to benefit from mitigating interest rate volatility)ICICI Prudential Banking and PSU Debt Fund
  • 99. Our PMS Recommendations – ICICI Prudential PMS Contra Portfolio (A series under “Deep Value Portfolio”) . 99 Portfolio Strategy ICICI Prudential PMS Contra Portfolio aims to provide long term capital appreciation and generate returns by investing in underperforming stocks or sectors, which are available at intrinsic valuations and are expected to perform well in the long run. To strike an appropriate balance of concentration and diversification Portfolio Manager retains the flexibility to invest across market capitalization and sectors. Key Features Invest across Market Capitalisations The Portfolio is suitable for investors seeking long term wealth creation by investing in equities Investment Horizon: 4 Years & Above Benchmark Index: S&P BSE 200 Portfolio Performance (%) 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year Since Inception* ICICI Prudential PMS Contra Portfolio 1.77 6.85 3.03 14.43 15.28 S&P BSE 200 1.23 6.56 3.70 9.90 2.55 Data as on 30th Dec, 2019. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. The return mentioned above is the return of the oldest client of the portfolio. Further, the portfolio value is re-based as and when applicable. *Inception date: September 14, 2018. All the returns calculated above are before charging of expenses The investment strategy, approach and the structure of the portfolio herein involves risk and there can be no assurance that specific objectives will be met under differing market conditions or cycles. The investment strategy and the composition of the portfolio as stated herein is only indicative in nature and is subject to change within the provisions of the disclosure document and client agreement without any prior notice to investors. Please refer to the disclosure document & client agreement for details and risk factors.
  • 100. Our PMS Recommendations – ICICI Prudential PMS PIPE Portfolio (A series under “PIPE Portfolio”) 100 Portfolio Strategy ICICI Prudential PMS PIPE Portfolio aims to provide long term capital appreciation and generate returns by investing primarily in Mid and Small segment of the market by having exposure in companies enjoying some economic moat or undergoing special situations or in the midst of unfavourable business cycle. Key Features Invest predominantly in Mid and Small Caps Investment Horizon: 5 Years & Above Benchmark Index: S&P BSE Small Cap PROVEN PERFORMANCE WITH TIMELY EXIT After a successful 4-year period, the exit strategy helped limiting a significant downside The erstwhile ICICI Prudential PMS PIPE Portfolio – Series I* delivered ~303% absolute return between 1st Nov 2013 to 31st Jan 2018 against ~215%of S&P BSE Smallcap Index. The Portfolios of the clients who were invested in the strategy was wound up in January 2018, considering valuation were at cyclical peak. The Strategy is now beeing offered with an aim to capture the opportunity in the mid and small cap space.0 100 200 300 400 500 Nov/2013 Sep/2014 Jul/2015 May/2016 Mar/2017 Jan/2018 Nov/2018 ICICI Prudential PMS PIPE Portfolio S&P BSE SMALL CAP Performance between 1st Nov 2013 to 31st Jan 2018. Past Performance may or may not sustain in future. The above return was pertaining to the oldest client of the Portfolio The return of individual portfolios may vary. The investment strategy, approach and the structure of the portfolio herein involves risk and there can be no assurance that specific objectives will be met under differing market conditions or cycles. The investment strategy and the composition of the portfolio as stated herein is only indicative in nature and is subject to change within the provisions of the disclosure document and client agreement without any prior notice to investors. Please refer to the disclosure document & client agreement for details and risk factors.
  • 101. Our Equity Schemes . 101 Scheme Name Type of Scheme ICICI Prudential Bluechip Fund An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in large cap stocks ICICI Prudential Large & Mid Cap Fund An open ended equity scheme investing in both large cap and mid cap stocks. ICICI Prudential Midcap Fund An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in mid cap stocks. ICICI Prudential Smallcap Fund An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in small cap stocks. ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund An open ended equity scheme following a value investment strategy. ICICI Prudential Multicap Fund An open ended equity scheme investing across large cap, mid cap, small cap stocks. ICICI Prudential India Opportunities Fund An Open Ended Equity Scheme following Special Situations theme
  • 102. Our Hybrid Schemes / Fund of Funds Scheme Scheme Name Type of Scheme ICICI Prudential Asset Allocator Fund (FoF)* An open ended fund of funds scheme investing in equity oriented schemes, debt oriented schemes and gold ETFs/schemes. Scheme Name Type of Scheme ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund An open ended dynamic asset allocation fund ICICI Prudential Regular Savings Fund An open ended hybrid scheme investing predominantly in debt instruments ICICI Prudential Equity Savings Fund An open ended scheme investing in equity, arbitrage and debt. ICICI Prudential Equity & Debt Fund An open ended hybrid scheme investing predominantly in equity and equity related instruments ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund An open ended scheme investing in Equity, Debt, Gold/Gold ETF/units of REITs & InvITs and other asset classes as may be permitted from time to time. . *Investors may please note that they will be bearing the recurring expenses of this Scheme in addition to the expenses of the underlying Schemes in which this Scheme makes investment. 102
  • 103. Our Fixed Income Schemes Scheme Name Type of Scheme ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund An open ended ultra-short term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 3 months and 6 months. ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund An open ended short term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 1 Year and 3 Years. ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund An open ended medium term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 3 Years and 4 Years. The Macaulay duration of the portfolio is 1 Year to 4 years under anticipated adverse situation. ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in AA and below rated corporate bonds. ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in floating rate instruments (including fixed rate instruments converted to floating rate exposures using swaps/derivatives). ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund An open ended dynamic debt scheme investing across duration. ICICI Prudential Savings Fund An open ended low duration debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 6 months and 12 months ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in Debt instruments of banks, Public Sector Undertakings, Public Financial Institutions and Municipal Bonds ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in AA+ and above rated corporate bonds. ICICI Prudential Money Market Fund An open ended debt scheme investing in money market instruments . 103 Macaulay duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price
  • 104. Riskometers ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund is suitable for investors whoare seeking*: Long term wealth creation An open ended scheme investing across asset classes. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Equity & Debt Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation solution A balanced fund aiming for long term capital appreciation and current income by investing in equity as well as fixed income securities. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation solution An equity fund that aims for growth by investing in equity and derivatives. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them . 104
  • 105. Riskometers ICICI Prudential Bluechip Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in large cap stocks. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation An open ended equity scheme following a value investment strategy *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Large & Mid Cap Fund is suitable for investors whoare seeking*: Long term wealth creation An open ended equity scheme investing in both largecap and mid cap stocks *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them . 105
  • 106. Riskometers ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Medium term savings A debt scheme that aims to generate income through investing predominantly in AA and below rated corporate bonds while maintaining the optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Medium term savings A debt scheme that invests in debt and money market instruments with a view to maximize income while maintaining optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Regular Savings Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Medium to long term regular income solution A hybrid fund that aims to generate regular income through investments primarily in debt and money market instruments and long term capital appreciation by investing a portion in equity. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them . 106
  • 107. Riskometers ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Short term income generation and capital appreciation solution A debt fund that aims to generate income by investing in a range of debt and money market instruments of various maturities. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: All durationsavings A debt scheme that invests in debt and money market instruments with a view to maximize income while maintaining optimum balance of yield, safety andliquidity *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Smallcap Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long Term wealth creation An open ended equity scheme that seeks to generate capital appreciation by predominantly investing in equity and equity related securities of small cap companies. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them . 107
  • 108. Riskometers ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Short term savings An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in floating rate instruments *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable forthem ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Short term regular income An open ended ultra-short term debt scheme investing in a range of debt and money market instruments *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable forthem ICICI Prudential Midcap Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long Term wealth creation An open-ended equity scheme that aims for capital appreciation by investing in diversified mid cap companies. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable forthem . 108
  • 109. Riskometers ICICI Prudential India Opportunities Fund (The scheme is suitable for investors who are seeking*) Long term wealth creation An equity scheme that invests in stocks based on special situations theme. *Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about whether the product is suitable forthem. ICICI Prudential Equity Savings Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation An open ended scheme that seeks to generate regular income through investments in fixed income securities, arbitrage and other derivative strategies and aim for long term capital appreciation by investing in equity and equity related instruments. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable forthem ICICI Prudential Multicap Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation An open ended equity scheme investing across largecap, mid cap and small cap stocks. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them . 109
  • 110. Riskometers ICICI Prudential Savings Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Short term savings An open ended low duration debt scheme that aims to maximize income by investing in debt and money market instruments while maintaining optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Short term savings An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in Debt instruments of banks, Public Sector Undertakings, Public Financial Institutions and Municipal Bonds *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. . 110 ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund is suitable for investors whoare seeking*: Short term savings An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in highest rated corporate bonds *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
  • 111. Riskometers ICICI Prudential Money Market Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Short term savings A money market scheme that seeks to provide reasonable returns, commensurate with low risk while providing a high level of liquidity *Investors should consult •Long Term wealth creation •An open ended fund of funds scheme investing in equity oriented schemes, debt oriented schemes and gold ETF/schemes. *Investorsshouldconsulttheirfinancialadvisorsif in doubt aboutwhethertheproduct is suitablefor them. ICICI Prudential Asset Allocator Fund (FoF) (An open ended fund of funds scheme investing in equity oriented schemes, debt oriented schemes and gold ETFs/ schemes) is suitable for investors who are seeking*: . 111
  • 112. Disclaimer Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. All figures and other data given in this document are dated. The same may or may not be relevant at a future date. The AMC takes no responsibility of updating any data/information in this material from time to time. The information shall not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited. Prospective investors are advised to consult their own legal, tax and financial advisors to determine possible tax, legal and other financial implication or consequence of subscribing to the Products mentioned herein. Investing in securities including equities and derivatives involves certain risks and considerations associated generally with making investments in securities. The value of the portfolios may fluctuate and can go up or down. Past Performance may or may not be sustained in future. Disclaimer: In the preparation of the material contained in this document, ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Ltd. (the AMC) has used information that is publicly available, including Budget speech and information developed in-house. The stock(s)/sector(s) mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in this stock(s). Some of the material used in the document may have been obtained from members/ persons other than the AMC and/or its affiliates and which may have been made available to the AMC and/or to its affiliates. Information gathered and material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. The AMC however does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and / or completeness of any information. We have included statements / opinions / recommendations in this document, which contain words, or phrases such as “will”, “expect”, “should”, “believe” and similar expressions or variations of such expressions, that are “forward looking statements”. Actual results may differ materially from those suggested by the forward looking statements due to risk or uncertainties associated with our expectations with respect to, but not limited to, exposure to market risks, general economic and political conditions in India and other countries globally, which have an impact on our services and / or investments, the monetary and interest policies of India, inflation, deflation, unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices etc. ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited (including its affiliates), the Mutual Fund, The Trust and any of its officers, directors, personnel and employees, shall not liable for any loss, damage of any nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss of profit in any way arising from the use of this material in any manner. Further, the information contained herein should not be construed as forecast or promise or investment advice. The recipient alone shall be fully responsible/are liable for any decision taken on this material. . 112