The document discusses the economic impacts of the global downturn on Pacific Island Countries (PICs). It notes that PICs face declining exports, falling commodity prices, reduced tourism, and narrowing fiscal deficits. While expansionary policies could help, limited reserves, high debt levels, and inflation pose challenges. Monetary policy alone is insufficient, and only a few countries like PNG and Vanuatu can reasonably pursue stimulus efforts. Most PICs require supportive fiscal measures and external assistance to weather the crisis.
Judged against the post-election feeling of enthusiasm and exhilaration on May 29, the current underwhelming feeling of the Nigerian elite appears bizarre and contradictory. Why are they feeling so despondent and anxious? Is this the natural sequence that follows long waiting periods and anticipation??
In spite of this crisis of false expectations, the macro-economic scorecard reveals a balanced performance with major successes in power supply, petrol queues, restructuring of the oil sector and restoring the international reputation and pride of Nigeria. The salary arrears and contractor debts have been regularised and leakages are being blocked. The building blocks are being laid slowly. The truth is that it is taking too long.
The administration has not come out with a clear economic policy or blueprint. This macro-economic ambiguity is borne out of the sheer gravity of the problems and the dilemma that the possible options throw up. The recent plunge in oil prices in August is aggravating a difficult situation.
The impact of this policy void is increasing the tentativeness of investors and is being exacerbated by the rash of administrative measures. The volatility in the Forex and interest rate markets is evidence of consumer and investor anxiety. A cabinet is likely to be announced in a few days and will douse most of these fears.
These are some of the burning questions addressed by Bismarck Rewane and his team of analysts, in this edition of the LBS breakfast session.
Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central AsiaIMF
The May 2010 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia reports on the implications for the region of global economic developments and presents key policy challenges and recommendations. A resumption of capital inflows and the rebound in crude oil prices have aided the recovery in the oil-exporting countries of the Middle East and North Africa. The group of oil-importing countries is expected to show marginal increase in growth in response to a pickup in trade, investment, and bank credit. A key challenge for these countries is to enhance competitiveness to raise growth rates and generate employment. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, exports have begun to pick up, the decline in remittances appears to be slowing or reversing, and capital inflows have turned positive. For 2010, a recovery across the region is projected as the global economy, and in particular Russia, picks up speed. Overall, prospects for the region are improving and the regional impact of the Dubai crisis and events in Greece has been limited so far. Nevertheless, a repricing of sovereign debt cannot be excluded, adding a degree of uncertainty to the outlook.
AN UPDATE ON VIETNAM'S RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTTa Quoc Dung
The document outlines the achievements, challenges, and near-term outlook of Vietnam's economy according to a presentation. The achievements include relatively stable macroeconomic conditions and a strong external balance, though foreign investors have mixed views. The challenges are the longest period of slow growth since economic reforms began, state finances being under stress, and slow progress on structural reforms. The near-term outlook predicts the slow growth phase will persist in the medium-term.
Savings and its determinants in west africa countriesAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that investigated the determinants of domestic savings rates in West African countries from 1980 to 2006. The study found that government budget surplus and inflation rate were statistically significant determinants, while dependency ratio, interest rate, and GDP growth were not. Development of West Africa's financial markets had a positive impact on savings. Real interest rates and terms of trade had an insignificant impact on savings levels. Savings rates varied significantly across West African countries and other African regions over the study period, with North and Middle Africa generally having higher rates than West Africa.
Global markets displayed resilience in Q1 2011 despite significant geopolitical events. The S&P 500 posted its best quarter since 1998 while the S&P/TSX had a strong positive return. Energy and financial stocks supported the markets, while materials lagged. Looking ahead, markets face uncertainty from events in North Africa, high oil prices, and assessing the full economic impact of Japan's disasters, though solid fundamentals support the outlook.
1) The document provides an outlook and asset allocation for 2013, noting that global GDP growth is expected to be similar to 2012 while central banks continue quantitative easing.
2) Quantitative easing is expected to be positive for equities, real estate, and commodities while keeping government bond yields low.
3) In the US, growth is forecast at around 2% as the private sector offsets government contraction, while the Fed continues bond purchases.
4) The Eurozone is expected to see modest recovery in 2013 led by Germany and France, while southern Europe continues to contract amid austerity and high financing costs.
The global economic crisis originated in the US subprime mortgage market and spread to a financial and economic crisis worldwide. The Caribbean has been impacted through declines in tourism, remittances, investment and exports. Unemployment has risen while fiscal deficits and debt have increased. Caribbean countries have responded with expansionary policies to boost employment as well as financing from international institutions. Ongoing challenges include uncertainty about the crisis duration and lagged effects on the region. Strengthening regulation, social programs, exports and integration are priorities moving forward.
The document summarizes the economic impact of the 2008 global financial crisis on several small African countries. It states that the crisis led to a decline in economic growth worldwide and particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. It then analyzes the effects on five countries through reduced exports, tourism, foreign aid, and remittances. The countries implemented policies like interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus to mitigate the impact. Overall, the crisis had significant negative effects on the African economies discussed but some countries were more affected than others due to their reliance on commodities and exports.
Judged against the post-election feeling of enthusiasm and exhilaration on May 29, the current underwhelming feeling of the Nigerian elite appears bizarre and contradictory. Why are they feeling so despondent and anxious? Is this the natural sequence that follows long waiting periods and anticipation??
In spite of this crisis of false expectations, the macro-economic scorecard reveals a balanced performance with major successes in power supply, petrol queues, restructuring of the oil sector and restoring the international reputation and pride of Nigeria. The salary arrears and contractor debts have been regularised and leakages are being blocked. The building blocks are being laid slowly. The truth is that it is taking too long.
The administration has not come out with a clear economic policy or blueprint. This macro-economic ambiguity is borne out of the sheer gravity of the problems and the dilemma that the possible options throw up. The recent plunge in oil prices in August is aggravating a difficult situation.
The impact of this policy void is increasing the tentativeness of investors and is being exacerbated by the rash of administrative measures. The volatility in the Forex and interest rate markets is evidence of consumer and investor anxiety. A cabinet is likely to be announced in a few days and will douse most of these fears.
These are some of the burning questions addressed by Bismarck Rewane and his team of analysts, in this edition of the LBS breakfast session.
Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central AsiaIMF
The May 2010 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia reports on the implications for the region of global economic developments and presents key policy challenges and recommendations. A resumption of capital inflows and the rebound in crude oil prices have aided the recovery in the oil-exporting countries of the Middle East and North Africa. The group of oil-importing countries is expected to show marginal increase in growth in response to a pickup in trade, investment, and bank credit. A key challenge for these countries is to enhance competitiveness to raise growth rates and generate employment. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, exports have begun to pick up, the decline in remittances appears to be slowing or reversing, and capital inflows have turned positive. For 2010, a recovery across the region is projected as the global economy, and in particular Russia, picks up speed. Overall, prospects for the region are improving and the regional impact of the Dubai crisis and events in Greece has been limited so far. Nevertheless, a repricing of sovereign debt cannot be excluded, adding a degree of uncertainty to the outlook.
AN UPDATE ON VIETNAM'S RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTTa Quoc Dung
The document outlines the achievements, challenges, and near-term outlook of Vietnam's economy according to a presentation. The achievements include relatively stable macroeconomic conditions and a strong external balance, though foreign investors have mixed views. The challenges are the longest period of slow growth since economic reforms began, state finances being under stress, and slow progress on structural reforms. The near-term outlook predicts the slow growth phase will persist in the medium-term.
Savings and its determinants in west africa countriesAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that investigated the determinants of domestic savings rates in West African countries from 1980 to 2006. The study found that government budget surplus and inflation rate were statistically significant determinants, while dependency ratio, interest rate, and GDP growth were not. Development of West Africa's financial markets had a positive impact on savings. Real interest rates and terms of trade had an insignificant impact on savings levels. Savings rates varied significantly across West African countries and other African regions over the study period, with North and Middle Africa generally having higher rates than West Africa.
Global markets displayed resilience in Q1 2011 despite significant geopolitical events. The S&P 500 posted its best quarter since 1998 while the S&P/TSX had a strong positive return. Energy and financial stocks supported the markets, while materials lagged. Looking ahead, markets face uncertainty from events in North Africa, high oil prices, and assessing the full economic impact of Japan's disasters, though solid fundamentals support the outlook.
1) The document provides an outlook and asset allocation for 2013, noting that global GDP growth is expected to be similar to 2012 while central banks continue quantitative easing.
2) Quantitative easing is expected to be positive for equities, real estate, and commodities while keeping government bond yields low.
3) In the US, growth is forecast at around 2% as the private sector offsets government contraction, while the Fed continues bond purchases.
4) The Eurozone is expected to see modest recovery in 2013 led by Germany and France, while southern Europe continues to contract amid austerity and high financing costs.
The global economic crisis originated in the US subprime mortgage market and spread to a financial and economic crisis worldwide. The Caribbean has been impacted through declines in tourism, remittances, investment and exports. Unemployment has risen while fiscal deficits and debt have increased. Caribbean countries have responded with expansionary policies to boost employment as well as financing from international institutions. Ongoing challenges include uncertainty about the crisis duration and lagged effects on the region. Strengthening regulation, social programs, exports and integration are priorities moving forward.
The document summarizes the economic impact of the 2008 global financial crisis on several small African countries. It states that the crisis led to a decline in economic growth worldwide and particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. It then analyzes the effects on five countries through reduced exports, tourism, foreign aid, and remittances. The countries implemented policies like interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus to mitigate the impact. Overall, the crisis had significant negative effects on the African economies discussed but some countries were more affected than others due to their reliance on commodities and exports.
Global equity markets ended 2010 strongly, boosted by improving investor confidence and positive global growth outlook. In the US, quantitative easing and tax cuts helped improve the economic outlook and sentiment, giving a lift to global markets. European markets struggled with sovereign debt worries, particularly regarding Greece and Ireland. Bond markets were strong initially but weakened later in the year. Commodity prices like gold, oil, and metals increased significantly in 2010. The Canadian dollar rose close to 6% against the US dollar due to global growth and commodity prices. Going forward, volatility is expected to remain as investors take a diversified approach in a gradually improving global economic environment.
The document provides an economic update for Thailand in April 2011. Key points include:
- Economic indicators show strong growth from domestic demand, but slower export growth and effects from Japan's natural disaster.
- Manufacturing production fell due to declines in auto and HDD production. Unemployment remained low.
- Inflation accelerated to 4.19% in May, led by food, fuel and rent prices. The central bank raised rates to 3%.
- Private investment and consumption continued expanding, though at a slower pace. Exports and imports also grew slower.
2008:Global Inflation and Economic Slowdown: Macroeconomic Policy Options for...econsultbw
The document discusses macroeconomic policy options for Botswana in response to global inflation and economic slowdown. It outlines Botswana's recent growth experience and reviews monetary, exchange rate, trade, and fiscal policy choices. It analyzes the impact of high global food and fuel prices on Botswana and recommends both short-term policy responses and long-term structural reforms to address current challenges and support economic objectives of diversification, openness and competitiveness. The document also examines Botswana's exchange rate and monetary policy framework and combinations, and whether adjustments are needed for long-term sustainability.
This report outlines the global macroeconomic trends that are expected to impact businesses over the next five years. Valuable insight includes the challenges of the post-recession recovery, as well as the risks and opportunities facing businesses in established and emerging regional economies.
"ReSAKSS Regional Analysis on Agricultural Expenditures and Agricultural Policy Bias: West Africa", presentation by Babatunde Omilola and Melissa Lambert. April, 2009.
- After strong gains earlier in the year, global equity markets declined in May due to renewed concerns about European sovereign debt and disappointing economic data from the US that pointed to slower growth.
- Commodity prices also pulled back, alleviating some inflation pressures. Bond markets and defensive sectors benefited from the "risk-off" sentiment while cyclical stocks declined.
- While the recent data has increased economic worries, the document argues the global economy is still growing and corporate fundamentals remain strong, so the downturn may be temporary.
Here are the key points from the Fundamental Analysis section:
- The Fed aims to ease bubbles that have emerged in the sovereign bond market by gradually raising bond yields through monetary tightening. However, tightening will only occur as much as markets allow without major turmoil.
- During the 2004-2007 period, the Fed continuously tightened but bond yields did not react and the housing bubble continued to expand. The Fed wants to avoid a repetition of this.
- With the long U.S. expansion, lack of price pressures is raising questions about whether the economy can produce enough demand to reach the Fed's 2% inflation target. Inflation expectations based on TIPS yields are at the lowest since early 2009.
-
This document examines the impact of the global financial crisis on Nigeria's crude oil revenue. It uses monthly data from 24 months before the crisis and 24 months during the crisis. The analysis found that the crisis significantly reduced Nigeria's oil revenue, though the impact has begun to lessen over time. The study recommends tighter financial regulation and economic diversification to mitigate the effects of future crises.
11.0001www.iiste.org call for paper.yamden pandok bitrus 1--1-17Alexander Decker
This document examines the impact of the global financial crisis on Nigeria's crude oil revenue. It uses monthly data from 24 months before the crisis and 24 months during the crisis. The study found that the crisis significantly reduced Nigeria's oil revenue, though the impact has begun to lessen over time. The author recommends tighter financial regulation and economic diversification to mitigate future crises. Oil is Nigeria's main export and source of government revenue, so reductions in global oil demand and prices during the crisis negatively affected the country.
Horizon Lines reported financial results for the first quarter of 2009. Revenue declined 11% to $272 million due to lower fuel surcharges and volume. Adjusted EBITDA was $19 million, down 29% year-over-year. The economic recession continued to impact all trade lanes, especially Hawaii and Puerto Rico, though rate increases partially offset declining volume. Liquidity remained strong at $97 million and the company remained in compliance with debt covenants. Looking ahead, management expects a protracted recession but believes Horizon Lines is well positioned in domestic trades.
Thiet ke Bao cao thuong nien - Vina 2007 (vnl)Viết Nội Dung
VinaLand (VNL) is a property fund listed on the London Stock Exchange that invests in Vietnam's real estate market. As of June 2007, VNL had invested $206 million into 25 projects across Vietnam, with plans to invest an additional $111 million by the end of 2007. VNL's net asset value per share grew 26% since inception to $1.26 as of June 2007, with earnings per share of $0.12 for the year. VNL's portfolio is diversified across property sectors and regions in Vietnam.
The Year 2018 was the penultimate Year before Nigeria's general elections and the political economic dynamics in 2018 significantly signposted the prognoses for 2019. Added to the macro and global political economic factors, the 2018 review and 2019 outlook is a presentation of a strategic analytical insight and forecast to the dynamic scenarios that will help shape the social, political and economic narratives and outcomes in Nigeria in 2019. It has chronicled the policy, social, economic and business factors that will influence the direction of national discourse in 2019. It is a valuable tool for all Strategic and Policy Leaders in the Public and Private sectors of Nigeria's economy. It is an invaluable resource for Organizational development and People management leaders as they help organizations chart a viable and strategic course for 2019. It is hoped that this presentation will help all stakeholders to better manage the risk factors, expectations and leverage the opportunities that lies ahead in 2019. Wishing you all a very a tactically deliberate, positively impactful and sustainably productive 2019. Cheers!
D&B's Global Economic Outlook to 2018 (2013 Update)Dun & Bradstreet
Through the analysis of D&B's proprietary business data, this report provides D&B's perspective on global business conditions in 2013, as well as a prediction of what to expect in the coming years.
This document is an economic newsletter from EconoTimes that provides analysis of financial markets and economic data. It includes sections on market recaps, previews of key economic data releases, analysis of currencies and bonds, forecasts from economists, and technical charts. The newsletter is intended to inform readers and clients of EconoTimes about global economic and market conditions.
The document analyzes the impact of rising oil prices on the global economy. It finds that a rise in oil prices to $100/barrel due to stronger global demand will likely have a limited negative impact on global growth. However, a further $10-15/barrel rise due to Middle East supply disruptions could reduce global growth by 0.5% this year. A potential $150/barrel shock has a 10-15% probability and would reduce growth by over 2%, risking recession. Countries dependent on oil imports would see greater effects than oil producers.
2007 Q3: Feature on Economic Diversificationeconsultbw
Botswana's economy has remained resilient despite global financial turbulence. Inflation has risen due to higher food and fuel prices, and is projected to increase further. Economic growth remains positive but low, with quarterly GDP data confirming recovery but at 3.3% annual growth in 2006. Government revenues met targets but spending was well below budget, resulting in a large budget surplus. Non-diamond exports grew strongly while the diamond sector saw modest growth. Monetary policy remains unchanged despite inflation concerns due to external factors beyond Botswana's control.
The document summarizes a meeting held by the Commonwealth Secretariat to discuss sustaining development in small states amid the global financial crisis. The objectives of the meeting were to discuss the crisis's impact on small states, identify issues of concern, discuss projections for small states' futures, and identify policies to help small states cope. The expected outcomes included an outcome statement on small states' situations and strategies to promote their development, and agreement on steps for an assistance plan. The meeting's program included sessions on the crisis's economic and social impacts, trade and private sector development, economic policies, development prospects, and partnerships for small states' development.
Small Caribbean states face economic crises that impact key sectors and public finances over time. In the short term, international, regional and DFID donors provide emergency assistance. Long term responses aim to restore growth while addressing risks through regional cooperation.
This document discusses monetary policy frameworks for small states in the Caribbean region. It notes that these states have small populations and economies that are highly dependent on exports and external capital flows. The document analyzes trends in current account deficits, external capital inflows, foreign exchange reserves, and exchange rate policies for various Caribbean countries. It finds that current account deficits widened significantly from 1991-2008 for most countries. It also discusses the instruments of monetary policy used by countries with fixed versus managed floating exchange rate regimes. Countries face tradeoffs between monetary independence and exchange rate stability. Credit growth is found to generally amplify GDP growth, but also potentially worsen current account balances.
This document provides policy recommendations for promoting growth and development in response to the global financial crisis. It recommends that governments divert more resources to education to address skills mismatches, reduce dependence on trade preferences, promote regional economic integration, consider adopting a single currency, diversify economies, encourage local investment and small enterprises, strengthen debt management, and attract foreign direct investment through improved infrastructure and skills development.
This document discusses the Debt Management Performance Assessment (DeMPA) and how it applies to small states. It provides an overview of what DeMPA is, including the performance indicators it uses to evaluate debt management. It then analyzes DeMPA results from a sample of 6 small states, finding that on average they scored lower than non-small states. Specifically, small states had an average of 30% of indicators above the minimum requirement, compared to 44% for non-small states. The document concludes DeMPA can help small states strengthen debt management capacity given their unique challenges with smaller markets and limited resources.
Global equity markets ended 2010 strongly, boosted by improving investor confidence and positive global growth outlook. In the US, quantitative easing and tax cuts helped improve the economic outlook and sentiment, giving a lift to global markets. European markets struggled with sovereign debt worries, particularly regarding Greece and Ireland. Bond markets were strong initially but weakened later in the year. Commodity prices like gold, oil, and metals increased significantly in 2010. The Canadian dollar rose close to 6% against the US dollar due to global growth and commodity prices. Going forward, volatility is expected to remain as investors take a diversified approach in a gradually improving global economic environment.
The document provides an economic update for Thailand in April 2011. Key points include:
- Economic indicators show strong growth from domestic demand, but slower export growth and effects from Japan's natural disaster.
- Manufacturing production fell due to declines in auto and HDD production. Unemployment remained low.
- Inflation accelerated to 4.19% in May, led by food, fuel and rent prices. The central bank raised rates to 3%.
- Private investment and consumption continued expanding, though at a slower pace. Exports and imports also grew slower.
2008:Global Inflation and Economic Slowdown: Macroeconomic Policy Options for...econsultbw
The document discusses macroeconomic policy options for Botswana in response to global inflation and economic slowdown. It outlines Botswana's recent growth experience and reviews monetary, exchange rate, trade, and fiscal policy choices. It analyzes the impact of high global food and fuel prices on Botswana and recommends both short-term policy responses and long-term structural reforms to address current challenges and support economic objectives of diversification, openness and competitiveness. The document also examines Botswana's exchange rate and monetary policy framework and combinations, and whether adjustments are needed for long-term sustainability.
This report outlines the global macroeconomic trends that are expected to impact businesses over the next five years. Valuable insight includes the challenges of the post-recession recovery, as well as the risks and opportunities facing businesses in established and emerging regional economies.
"ReSAKSS Regional Analysis on Agricultural Expenditures and Agricultural Policy Bias: West Africa", presentation by Babatunde Omilola and Melissa Lambert. April, 2009.
- After strong gains earlier in the year, global equity markets declined in May due to renewed concerns about European sovereign debt and disappointing economic data from the US that pointed to slower growth.
- Commodity prices also pulled back, alleviating some inflation pressures. Bond markets and defensive sectors benefited from the "risk-off" sentiment while cyclical stocks declined.
- While the recent data has increased economic worries, the document argues the global economy is still growing and corporate fundamentals remain strong, so the downturn may be temporary.
Here are the key points from the Fundamental Analysis section:
- The Fed aims to ease bubbles that have emerged in the sovereign bond market by gradually raising bond yields through monetary tightening. However, tightening will only occur as much as markets allow without major turmoil.
- During the 2004-2007 period, the Fed continuously tightened but bond yields did not react and the housing bubble continued to expand. The Fed wants to avoid a repetition of this.
- With the long U.S. expansion, lack of price pressures is raising questions about whether the economy can produce enough demand to reach the Fed's 2% inflation target. Inflation expectations based on TIPS yields are at the lowest since early 2009.
-
This document examines the impact of the global financial crisis on Nigeria's crude oil revenue. It uses monthly data from 24 months before the crisis and 24 months during the crisis. The analysis found that the crisis significantly reduced Nigeria's oil revenue, though the impact has begun to lessen over time. The study recommends tighter financial regulation and economic diversification to mitigate the effects of future crises.
11.0001www.iiste.org call for paper.yamden pandok bitrus 1--1-17Alexander Decker
This document examines the impact of the global financial crisis on Nigeria's crude oil revenue. It uses monthly data from 24 months before the crisis and 24 months during the crisis. The study found that the crisis significantly reduced Nigeria's oil revenue, though the impact has begun to lessen over time. The author recommends tighter financial regulation and economic diversification to mitigate future crises. Oil is Nigeria's main export and source of government revenue, so reductions in global oil demand and prices during the crisis negatively affected the country.
Horizon Lines reported financial results for the first quarter of 2009. Revenue declined 11% to $272 million due to lower fuel surcharges and volume. Adjusted EBITDA was $19 million, down 29% year-over-year. The economic recession continued to impact all trade lanes, especially Hawaii and Puerto Rico, though rate increases partially offset declining volume. Liquidity remained strong at $97 million and the company remained in compliance with debt covenants. Looking ahead, management expects a protracted recession but believes Horizon Lines is well positioned in domestic trades.
Thiet ke Bao cao thuong nien - Vina 2007 (vnl)Viết Nội Dung
VinaLand (VNL) is a property fund listed on the London Stock Exchange that invests in Vietnam's real estate market. As of June 2007, VNL had invested $206 million into 25 projects across Vietnam, with plans to invest an additional $111 million by the end of 2007. VNL's net asset value per share grew 26% since inception to $1.26 as of June 2007, with earnings per share of $0.12 for the year. VNL's portfolio is diversified across property sectors and regions in Vietnam.
The Year 2018 was the penultimate Year before Nigeria's general elections and the political economic dynamics in 2018 significantly signposted the prognoses for 2019. Added to the macro and global political economic factors, the 2018 review and 2019 outlook is a presentation of a strategic analytical insight and forecast to the dynamic scenarios that will help shape the social, political and economic narratives and outcomes in Nigeria in 2019. It has chronicled the policy, social, economic and business factors that will influence the direction of national discourse in 2019. It is a valuable tool for all Strategic and Policy Leaders in the Public and Private sectors of Nigeria's economy. It is an invaluable resource for Organizational development and People management leaders as they help organizations chart a viable and strategic course for 2019. It is hoped that this presentation will help all stakeholders to better manage the risk factors, expectations and leverage the opportunities that lies ahead in 2019. Wishing you all a very a tactically deliberate, positively impactful and sustainably productive 2019. Cheers!
D&B's Global Economic Outlook to 2018 (2013 Update)Dun & Bradstreet
Through the analysis of D&B's proprietary business data, this report provides D&B's perspective on global business conditions in 2013, as well as a prediction of what to expect in the coming years.
This document is an economic newsletter from EconoTimes that provides analysis of financial markets and economic data. It includes sections on market recaps, previews of key economic data releases, analysis of currencies and bonds, forecasts from economists, and technical charts. The newsletter is intended to inform readers and clients of EconoTimes about global economic and market conditions.
The document analyzes the impact of rising oil prices on the global economy. It finds that a rise in oil prices to $100/barrel due to stronger global demand will likely have a limited negative impact on global growth. However, a further $10-15/barrel rise due to Middle East supply disruptions could reduce global growth by 0.5% this year. A potential $150/barrel shock has a 10-15% probability and would reduce growth by over 2%, risking recession. Countries dependent on oil imports would see greater effects than oil producers.
2007 Q3: Feature on Economic Diversificationeconsultbw
Botswana's economy has remained resilient despite global financial turbulence. Inflation has risen due to higher food and fuel prices, and is projected to increase further. Economic growth remains positive but low, with quarterly GDP data confirming recovery but at 3.3% annual growth in 2006. Government revenues met targets but spending was well below budget, resulting in a large budget surplus. Non-diamond exports grew strongly while the diamond sector saw modest growth. Monetary policy remains unchanged despite inflation concerns due to external factors beyond Botswana's control.
The document summarizes a meeting held by the Commonwealth Secretariat to discuss sustaining development in small states amid the global financial crisis. The objectives of the meeting were to discuss the crisis's impact on small states, identify issues of concern, discuss projections for small states' futures, and identify policies to help small states cope. The expected outcomes included an outcome statement on small states' situations and strategies to promote their development, and agreement on steps for an assistance plan. The meeting's program included sessions on the crisis's economic and social impacts, trade and private sector development, economic policies, development prospects, and partnerships for small states' development.
Small Caribbean states face economic crises that impact key sectors and public finances over time. In the short term, international, regional and DFID donors provide emergency assistance. Long term responses aim to restore growth while addressing risks through regional cooperation.
This document discusses monetary policy frameworks for small states in the Caribbean region. It notes that these states have small populations and economies that are highly dependent on exports and external capital flows. The document analyzes trends in current account deficits, external capital inflows, foreign exchange reserves, and exchange rate policies for various Caribbean countries. It finds that current account deficits widened significantly from 1991-2008 for most countries. It also discusses the instruments of monetary policy used by countries with fixed versus managed floating exchange rate regimes. Countries face tradeoffs between monetary independence and exchange rate stability. Credit growth is found to generally amplify GDP growth, but also potentially worsen current account balances.
This document provides policy recommendations for promoting growth and development in response to the global financial crisis. It recommends that governments divert more resources to education to address skills mismatches, reduce dependence on trade preferences, promote regional economic integration, consider adopting a single currency, diversify economies, encourage local investment and small enterprises, strengthen debt management, and attract foreign direct investment through improved infrastructure and skills development.
This document discusses the Debt Management Performance Assessment (DeMPA) and how it applies to small states. It provides an overview of what DeMPA is, including the performance indicators it uses to evaluate debt management. It then analyzes DeMPA results from a sample of 6 small states, finding that on average they scored lower than non-small states. Specifically, small states had an average of 30% of indicators above the minimum requirement, compared to 44% for non-small states. The document concludes DeMPA can help small states strengthen debt management capacity given their unique challenges with smaller markets and limited resources.
The financial crisis has had significant social impacts on small states. Small states are more dependent on services like tourism which have been hard hit by the crisis. Tourism makes up a large portion of GDP and employment in small states. The crisis has led to declines in GDP, government revenue, employment, and remittances in small states. This has increased poverty, inequality, unemployment, especially among vulnerable groups like women, youth, and the low-skilled. Progress made towards social goals is now threatened by the crisis.
IMF Regional Economic Outlook for the Caucasus and Central AsiaCRRC-Armenia
The document summarizes the International Monetary Fund's November 2009 regional economic outlook report for the Caucasus and Central Asia region. It finds that while the global economy is beginning to recover from the crisis, recovery in the CCA region will be modest, with growth expected to pick up in 2010 following a downturn in 2009. The crisis hit the region's energy importing countries hard through sharp drops in remittances and exports. Macroeconomic policies across the region were made more accommodative to counter the crisis impacts. Financial sectors remain stressed with rising non-performing loans. Poverty levels may rise in energy importers due to factors like lower incomes and employment. Sustained fiscal stimulus and financial sector stabilization will be important for recovery
1) The document discusses asymmetries between developed and developing countries in their economic response to COVID-19, with advanced economies projected to recover sooner.
2) Fiscal stimulus measures have been much larger in advanced economies who have more fiscal space, while emerging markets face a less favorable external environment.
3) Unequal access to COVID vaccines has led to varying vaccination rates between countries in Latin America and the Caribbean.
The Caribbean Islands were heavily impacted by the global economic crisis due to their small, open economies. The crisis affected the islands through decreased trade, tourism, remittances, and foreign direct investment. To address the crisis, Caribbean governments implemented fiscal policies and stimulus packages, with measures varying based on each country's economic situation, debt levels, and ability to access international reserves. While most countries pursued pro-cyclical fiscal policies, some like Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago implemented counter-cyclical policies to stabilize their economies.
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The document provides an overview of Pakistan's economy and macroeconomic indicators from 2007-2011. It discusses that Pakistan underwent economic shocks from 2008-2009 due to external imbalances, mounting internal issues, high inflation, and portfolio de-leveraging by offshore investors as a result of the global financial crisis. However, IMF assistance beginning in 2009 triggered economic reforms and increased foreign exchange reserves. Real GDP growth was 4.1% in 2010, supported by industry and services. Major structural reforms have been initiated as required by the IMF. Headline inflation declined from 20.8% in 2009 to 11.7% in 2010, while the current account deficit also shrank. However, recent floods have negatively impacted the economy and inflation
The Philippines faces economic slowdown due to declining global demand and lackluster domestic investment and government intervention. Growth is projected to slow considerably, with forecasts ranging from 2-4% compared to past growth rates over 5%. While the country was in a better position than previous crises, 10 of 11 leading indicators are now negative, portending further economic weakness. The outlook could improve if stimulus packages abroad and at home are sizable and effective.
The document discusses the shape of the global economic recovery and associated risks. It finds that while growth rebounded in 2010, the recovery is not sustainable and a downturn is expected in 2011. Europe faces significant risks from debt problems and austerity measures. The US recovery depends on weak consumer demand as households pay down debt. China also faces recession risks from a slowing property market and investment.
Nigeria has a population of 156 million and GDP of $206,664 million. Its economy grew 6.1% in 2008 but slowed to 2.9% in 2009. It is expected to grow 5.5% in 2010 and 5.2% in 2011. Nigeria has strengths such as being the largest economy in West Africa and having 31% of Africa's oil reserves. However, weaknesses include insufficient infrastructure and a difficult business environment. Demand for oil drives the economy but volatility in foreign exchange reserves and deficits in the Nigerian oil fund pose risks if oil production declines long-term. Banking sector recapitalization has prevented crisis though consolidation may weaken portfolio quality. Political reforms could boost growth if sustained
2010: Coping with the Crisis and Future Challengeseconsultbw
The Botswana economy experienced a severe recession in 2009, with annual growth at -6%. This was highly dependent on mining, which contracted massively. However, the non-mining private sector grew due to government spending stimulus, which helped maintain employment but resulted in large fiscal deficits of around 15% of GDP. Inflation declined substantially and interest rates were cut sharply. While the financial sector remained stable, bank credit growth is recovering after slowing. The economy is projected to recover in 2010-2011, driven by mining, but fiscal sustainability is a major challenge due to the large deficits accumulated during the crisis.
The Curious Case of Savings-Investment Gap and its Implications for IndiaAshutosh Bhargava
Their has been a remarkable shift in the savings-investment gap at the global level as well as in India. While this has had a tangible impact on global potential growth, the recovery is likely to differ from one country to another. In the Indian context, the recovery in trend growth is likely to be much higher than what is generally peceived and thus requires a more proactive response from policy makers, especially the monetary authorities.
The document summarizes the key points of Nigeria's 2010 budget and its potential impact on the business environment. It outlines the budget's assumptions around oil prices, GDP growth, exchange rates and inflation. A large portion of the budget will fund infrastructure projects in power, transport and agriculture. This is expected to improve infrastructure and lower costs, though high inflation remains a risk. The budget also aims to increase non-oil revenues and boost security spending in the Niger Delta to support business and investment.
The document provides an overview of the global and Botswana economies in the 4th quarter of 2009. Key points include:
- The global economy is recovering from recession but growth is uneven, with emerging markets growing faster than developed countries. Risks remain such as high government debt levels.
- In Botswana, diamond production and exports recovered partially in 2009 but remain below previous levels. Inflation fell sharply while interest rates were cut. The non-mining economy showed resilience.
- Going forward, risks include rising oil prices driving inflation up. Fiscal sustainability concerns will constrain government spending support for the economy in 2010. The recovery is expected to be uneven across sectors.
The document provides an overview of the global and Botswana economies in the 4th quarter of 2009. Key points include:
- The global economy is recovering from recession but growth is uneven, with emerging markets growing faster than developed countries. Risks remain such as high government debt levels.
- In Botswana, diamond production and exports recovered partially in 2009 but remain below previous levels. Inflation fell sharply while interest rates were cut. The non-mining economy showed resilience.
- Going forward, risks include rising oil prices driving inflation up. Fiscal sustainability concerns will constrain government spending support for the economy in 2010. The recovery is expected to be stronger in mining than non-mining sectors.
- In Q2 2013, sales were largely unchanged from Q2 2012 but organic growth was 5.9%. EBIT declined slightly due to negative currency impacts.
- Major Appliances Europe saw weak markets and declining volumes, resulting in breakeven EBIT. North America saw improved price/mix and increased market share.
- Latin America and Asia/Pacific saw continued growth, while Small Appliances and Professional Products saw higher volumes but lower margins.
- For full-year 2013, the company expects slightly positive market volumes and price/mix, along with higher costs for materials, R&D, and logistics.
This document provides an economic overview and outlook for sub-Saharan Africa in three parts:
1) Economic growth has slowed in 2015-2016 due to falling commodity prices, though growth remains higher than other regions. There are large disparities between commodity exporters and importers.
2) New challenges to growth include lower commodity prices, deteriorating global financial conditions, and long-term challenges of climate change and rapid population growth.
3) Growth prospects are examined for select oil exporters, frontier economies, and individual countries like Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana, which are expected to continue robust growth despite challenges.
2009. Jürgen Pfister. The global and European environment for CEE economies. ...Forum Velden
- The presentation discusses the impact of the global financial crisis on Central and Eastern European economies.
- CEE economies experienced a dramatic fall in foreign direct investment inflows and a reversal of private capital flows as a result of the crisis.
- Recovery from the recession will be slow, with an outright upswing not expected until 2011 due to weaknesses in the banking sector and rising unemployment in Europe.
- Medium-term growth prospects for CEE economies remain positive as the process of economic convergence with Western Europe continues, but growth will be dampened in the short-term by slow growth among EU trading partners.
The Greek economy experienced a crisis characterized by high growth based on consumption and borrowing, which led to reduced competitiveness and twin deficits. As the global financial crisis hit, Greece could no longer finance its deficits and debt, requiring bailouts totaling €245 billion from Eurozone countries and the IMF. This came with austerity measures including spending cuts and tax increases amounting to over 10% of GDP. The recession caused a 25% decline in GDP and tripling of unemployment by 2013. Structural reforms aimed to boost competitiveness and fiscal adjustments reduced deficits, though deflation and depressed demand prolonged the recession.
Falling unemployment, declining inflation and stronger growth – a better picture for the UK in 2014? But can it last?
After several years of weak expansion, the UK economy is enjoying a relatively strong cyclical recovery
Can the UK continued to experience a recovery in output, jobs and investment?
Will the recovery be balanced and sustainable?
How resilient is the UK? What are some of the major threats to growth in 2014 and beyond?
Perspectivas Semanais de Mercado Fincor- Semana 15 OutubroJoão Pinto
The document provides a weekly summary of markets and economic perspectives. It discusses weakness in equity markets following the Fed's QE3 announcement, earnings reports from major banks like JPMorgan and Citigroup, and downward revisions to global growth forecasts by the IMF. Other topics covered include industrial production in the Eurozone, China's exports, US consumer confidence reaching a 5-year high, and monetary policy decisions from central banks in Brazil, South Korea, Turkey and Japan.
The document provides an overview of recent developments in global financial markets and the world economy. Key points include:
1) Equity markets showed weakness in the past 4 weeks after the announcement of QE3, while bank stocks sold off on mixed earnings reports.
2) The IMF cut its global growth forecasts and warned of downside risks from fiscal issues in the US and a possible slowdown in China. Growth is expected to remain sluggish.
3) S&P downgraded Spain's credit rating to BBB- with a negative outlook, citing risks to growth and budget targets. Moody's is expected to announce a rating action on Spain this month.
The document discusses regional partnerships for development in the Pacific Islands region. It outlines the Pacific Plan framework, which aims to promote economic growth, governance, and regional cooperation. Examples of partnerships that have delivered on Pacific Plan priorities include initiatives focused on trade integration, catastrophe risk insurance, and responding to HIV/AIDS. The Pacific Regional Audit Initiative is highlighted as one partnership coordinating external auditing to increase accountability. While progress has been made in implementing aid effectiveness principles, more work is needed in areas like coordinated policy dialogue and using country systems. Strengthening development coordination at both the national and regional levels remains a priority.
This document summarizes discussions from meetings at Marlborough House on sustaining development in small states amid a turbulent global economy. It outlines objectives to examine the impact of the global financial crisis on development indicators and progress made by small states in achieving MDGs. Presentations covered issues around education, health, gender equality and the MDGs. Discussions focused on setbacks to achieving the MDGs due to the crisis, as well as implications for public sectors and gender equality. Proposed actions emphasize maintaining focus on inequities, MDGs, advocacy, and partnerships to support small states.
The document discusses the impact of the global economic crisis on progress towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) for small island states. It analyzes how the crisis has affected MDG targets related to poverty, infant mortality, and access to clean water in several small island developing states. It argues that the MDG framework needs to better account for differences in population size, costs of achieving targets, and other country-specific factors to effectively measure and support progress for small states. Overall, the document examines how small island states can get back on track to meet MDG targets in the wake of the economic crisis.
The document discusses development partnerships for small states in a world of economic and financial turbulence. It notes that globalization and loss of trade preferences have increased costs for small island developing states while aid is focusing more on trade and economy. Regional integration and partnerships with neighboring regional organizations are key, as is reinforced functional cooperation to avoid duplication and maximize resources. Key partnerships include political dialogue, preparing states for challenges, recognizing regional identity, ensuring representation in forums, and improving donor coordination. The document concludes that partnerships are needed to achieve results for small states.
The document discusses the economic challenges facing Pacific Island Countries from the global economic downturn and outlines some of the transmission mechanisms and policy responses. It notes the heavy dependence of many PICs on agricultural commodity exports and tourism, and how declines in global demand and prices are negatively impacting incomes and economic growth. Policy responses discussed include monetary, fiscal, structural and trade policies to help mitigate the effects of the economic slowdown.
The document explores new sources of partnerships for small states' sustainable development, arguing for a shift from traditional top-down approaches to more collaborative models based on community involvement, south-south cooperation, and the establishment of professional networks and centers of excellence to apply evidence-based solutions tailored to local contexts.
The global financial crisis has negatively impacted the small island states of Seychelles and Mauritius. In Seychelles, tourism revenue declined sharply by 25% in 2009, exacerbating the already high public debt of 175% of GDP. Unemployment rose and inflation escalated to over 60%. In Mauritius, key sectors like tourism, textiles, and construction slowed down significantly. Real GDP growth is projected to decline to 2-2.5% in 2009. Both countries have seen reduced foreign direct investment and are discussing financial assistance from international organizations to help mitigate impacts of the global recession.
The document discusses how the economies of Malta and Cyprus have weathered the global recession. Both countries joined the EU in 2004 and adopted the euro in 2008, improving their macroeconomic management. While their economies are vulnerable due to small size and openness, EU membership and the euro have increased economic resilience. Malta experienced a mild recession in 2009 but is expected to recover in 2010, supported by EU funds and fiscal stimulus. Cyprus saw relatively strong growth until 2009 and implemented targeted stimulus to support infrastructure, tourism, construction and banking. Overall, EU accession and the euro helped insulate both economies from the worst effects of the global downturn.
The document discusses the impacts of the global economic crisis following the financial crisis of 2008. It notes that many developing countries were innocent victims despite not being involved in subprime lending. The crisis led to a collapse in asset prices, economic recession, and declining growth rates around the world. Commodity prices and capital flows also reversed, straining the finances of developing nations. The document advocates for improved international cooperation and policy responses to mitigate the crisis impacts.
This document discusses fiscal policy challenges facing Pacific Island Countries (PICs) and the implications of the global financial crisis. It notes that PICs face slow economic growth, persistent budget deficits, and increasing civil service wage bills that consume much of government expenditures. Political instability also negatively impacts fiscal stability. The global financial crisis may reduce government revenues from tourism, remittances, and aid. To address these challenges, PICs could reduce civil service costs, reform income taxes by raising thresholds for the poor and rates for high earners, and increase VAT rates. Overall the document analyzes key fiscal issues and potential policy responses for PICs.
This document discusses social policy responses to financial crises in small states. It outlines that social policy involves redistribution, production, reproduction and protection working with economic policy. It recommends that social objectives be given equal footing with economic objectives in planning. It also recommends accelerating employment creation, strengthening social protection systems, and promoting social dialogue in recovering from financial crises. Mauritius is used as an example of implementing stimulus packages to save jobs and protect people. The importance of universal social security including pensions, health care, and unemployment benefits is also discussed.
The document discusses fiscal policy responses to the global economic crisis in several Caribbean countries and currency unions. It finds that fiscal stabilization is generally low in the Caribbean due to reliance on indirect taxation and lack of automatic stabilizers. Countries have implemented stimulus packages, sought IMF assistance, and introduced new taxes. Mechanisms like Petrocaribe provide insurance against oil price shocks. Overall fiscal space is limited but can be increased through tax reform and reducing exemptions. Close monitoring of public finances is needed given high debt levels in some countries.
Diversifcation through innovation: The case for small island developing statesCommonwealth Secretariat
Presentation given at the meeting on 'Sustaining development in small states in a turbulent global economy", Commonwealth Secretariat, Marlborough House, London, 2009.
This document discusses partnerships for sustainable development in Small Island Developing States (SIDS). It outlines that effective partnerships require integrated and participatory development planning at local, national, regional, and international levels. At the national level, challenges to participatory governance include political cultures dominated by single parties and dependency on the government. At the regional level, lack of private sector participation and involvement in global issues are problems. Managing development assistance and bridging the technology divide also present difficulties for SIDS. Recommendations include establishing consultative councils for development planning and building civil society participation in regional governance.
This document discusses the feasibility of convening periodic global meetings of small state representatives. It outlines existing forums for small states and the potential value of an additional meeting to allow more in-depth discussion of issues. Key topics of discussion could include economic development challenges. The meeting aims to share experiences and advocate on behalf of small states. Suggested formats include presentations, discussions, and breakout sessions over 1.5-2 days. Responses so far support the idea but more feedback is needed on timing, location, and other details.
This document discusses conceptualizing and measuring economic vulnerability and resilience in small states. It begins with an introduction to the characteristics of small states that make them vulnerable, such as limited economies of scale and reliance on international trade. It then presents a framework for distinguishing inherent economic vulnerability from nurtured economic resilience. Vulnerability can be measured through indices that capture exposure to external shocks, while resilience captures policies to mitigate vulnerability through good governance. Combining these measures indicates a country's overall risk. The document analyzes different country scenarios based on vulnerability and resilience, and outlines policy implications for small states to build resilience through macroeconomic stability, market efficiency, governance, and social development.
This document discusses social policy responses to financial crises in small states. It outlines that social policy involves redistribution, production, reproduction and protection working with economic policy. It recommends building social objectives into economic planning rather than treating social policy as secondary. The document also discusses using a global jobs pact to protect employment, strengthen social protection systems, and promote social dialogue in recovering from the crisis. It provides examples from Mauritius of stimulus packages to save jobs and infrastructure investment. Finally, it argues universal social security is possible and important for small states.
The document summarizes a presentation on addressing environmental challenges in small island developing states in the face of the global economic crisis. It discusses vulnerabilities related to energy, transportation, water security, natural hazards, land degradation, and waste management. It argues for "no regrets" investments that conserve foreign exchange, create jobs, sustain the environment, and are market-based. International cooperation on issues like climate change adaptation, technology transfers, and green financing mechanisms is also emphasized.
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In this presentation, we will explore the rise of generative AI in finance and its potential to reshape the industry. We will discuss how generative AI can be used to develop new products, combat fraud, and revolutionize risk management. Finally, we will address some of the ethical considerations and challenges associated with this powerful technology.
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Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
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Eco-Innovations and Firm Heterogeneity.Evidence from Italian Family and Nonf...
Monetary Policy Responses Pacific
1.
2. GLOBAL ECONOMIC DOWNTURN AND
PICS
Current crisis : Product of three crises (UN
ESCAP 2009)
Volatility in and surging food and fuel prices
in early 2008
Financial crisis in the advanced countries and
Climate change calamities
3. IMPACT
First one: Rapid depletion of foreign exchange reserves
Dependency on imports of food and fuel
Limited export earning capacity, except PNG
Fall in economic activities in advanced countries
Fall in imports from PICs
Fall in commodity prices
Climate change calamities of early 2008
Severe damages to infra.& destruction of farm lands
Steep decline in production for subsistence living
4. GROWTH FORECASTS & TOURISM
IMPACT
IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2009):
Global contraction by1.3%
USA: 2.8%,
Australia: 1.4%
NZ: 2.0%
Decline in economic activities: negative flow-on-effects to
Pacific region
Decline in tourist arrivals in 2009 by 5.5 % for all PICs
Actual year-to- year: arrivals from Aus & NZ decreased by
13% by March 2009
About 29.8% decline in tourism is forecast for Fiji
5. Growth Forecasts for Major Pacific Island
Countries
Table 1; PICs: Forecast for 2009
Growth Trade Import Budget Budget
Rate Balance cover Balance Balance
Country % % of GDP months (% of GDP) (% of GDP)
Forecasts 2008 2009-Qr1 2009 2009
Fiji -0.5 -35.8 2.7 -3.0 -5.0
PNG 4.0 32.5 10.9 -2.9 -5.0
Samoa -1.0 -43.1 4.8 -5.5 NA
Sol.Is 2.2 -20.5 2.5 -3.7 NA
Tonga -2.0 -52.3 4.7 1.0 NA
Vanuatu 3.5 -43.3 5.4 0.9 NA
Source : ADB (2009)
6. IMPACT ON PICs
Dec. 2006 coup in Fiji: Benefited Vanuatu
Diversion of tourist traffic away from Fiji
Short-run outlook for VAN: Not encouraging.
Contraction in AUS & NZ
Tourist arrivals expected to decline. (RBV 2009)
Inward remittances in SAM & TON: 25% of GDP
Fall:due to deterioration in overseas job markets
7. DECREASING EXPORTS & FALLING
COMMODITY PRICES
Economic downturn: Declining demand for mineral &
non-mineral products
End of commodity boom.
Two PICs: benefited by commodity boom
Growth: PNG: 2007: 6.7% & 2008: 7.3%
Solomon Islands: 2007: 10.3% & 2008: 7.0%
PNG’s exports: diversified with petroleum, gas &
mineral products along with agricultural exports
including coffee, cocoa and tea (about 95 percent of
export earnings)
8. DECREASING EXPORTS & FALLING
COMMODITY PRICES (CONTD)
SI’s exports: timber (70% of export earnings) & palm
oil.
With fall in demand & drop in prices: PNG and SI
would not be able to maintain the same past level of
export earnings and growth rates.
PNG: the kina export price index declined by 32% in
Dec 2008
Fall in log export price in SI likely due to contraction
in log importing advanced countries
9. RESPONSE TO THE CRISIS
Countercyclical: expansionary policies, fiscal or
monetary
Challenge: How to ensure spending on social protection
is not compromised.
Developed countries: Strengthening social safety-nets,
including unconditional and conditional cash transfers
to poor households & public works
Limited scope in PICs: Little fiscal or current account
leeway
PICs face higher inflation: surge in food & fuel prices;
pressure on exchange rates to depreciate; and an
outflow of international capital
Challenge: Trying to balance stimulation of growth
under inflation threat
10. FEAR OF TWIN DEFICITS
Except PNG & VAN, all PICs : Running budget deficits:
last 5 years
Raising domestic demand & fiscal deficits for
offsetting declines in external demand: Fear of
widening trade deficits
Fear of resulting drain on limited international
reserves level
Increase pressures on exchange rate
Disastrous effects: inflation, unless effective trimming
of their 2009 budgets
11. SUPPORTIVE MEASURES FOR FISCAL
STIMULUS
Needed Supportive Measures:
(i) More vigorous revenue collection efforts;
(ii) Changes in expenditure composition: cutting
wasteful expenditures & ambitious projects; and
(iii) Diverting the saved resources towards labour
intensive & quick yielding projects including
rehabilitation & upgrading infrastructure.
While effecting these critical changes: keep in mind
the interests of the already affected vulnerable
sections of the society.
12. FISCAL RESTRAINT
PNG’s bitter lessons from the past boom-bust cycle
episode of the 1990s
PNG’s recent windfall gains from commodity boom
invested in trust accounts
Vanuatu pursued wise budget policies: Budget
surpluses: during 2004-2008
Fears of wastage: Govts. with an eye on next elections:
Temptations: pursuing expansionary policies of doubtful
quality
13. BORROWING OPTIONS
Domestic Borrowing: Limited by Highly Prevailing
Debt levels in PICs.
Clear Recognition by March 2009 Monetary Policy
Statement (MPS) by Central Bank of Solomon
Islands
14. BORROWING OPTIONS (Contd)
“It would not however be appropriate for Solomon
Islands to implement such a program at this juncture
as the cost would be prohibitive, it would encumber
the nation with further debts and provide very little
boost to the economy given the supply constraints of
the economy and the dependence on foreign
demand” (CBSI 2009).
• Absence of well established capital markets: Unsold
Govt bonds are picked up by central banks:
Monetisation of fiscal deficits
15. EXTERNAL BORROWING
PICs’ Investment projects: Funded by bilateral grants
or multilateral grants & loans on concessional terms
from ADB & WB .
Bilateral aid inflows: Resource constraint in advanced
economies
Lukewarm response to WB President’s plea to
advanced countries to earmark 0.7% of their fiscal
stimulus packages to developing countries
External borrowing: an option open to PICs
16. EXTERNAL BORROWING (Contd)
ADB: A US$3 billion Countercyclical Support Facility
(CSF): short term loans supporting its member
countries’ fiscal spending to counter the crisis.
US $400 million under ADF: Concessional loans to
poorer countries: crucial budget support for the most
fiscally constrained countries in responding to the crisis
2006: With good rating, Fiji was successful in its first
ever overseas bond for US$150 million
2009: A repeat is not likely to be successful
17. WHO CAN AFFORD A FISCAL STIMULUS
EFFORT?
PNG & Vanuatu: High level of international reserves
PNG’s: import cover: 10.9 months
VAN: import cover: 5.4 months
Stimulus: temporary measures to meet temporary decline in
aggregate demand
Increases in wages & salaries, a permanent burden on
exchequer
Recalling the 1990s, Deputy Governor BPNG’s warned : “We
have to avoid this. We may be going through this cycle again”
(Bakani 2009)
Rise in W & S: spillover to demand for foreign goods and
assets
18. MONETARY POLICY
Options for an easy money policy, on their own or in
combination with an expansionary fiscal policy: Ruled out in all
PICs.
Fall in food and fuel prices in late 2008 provided relief
Volatility in prices is likely
All PICs, including PNG (managed float) target international
reserves.
Monetary policies of 5 PICs, other than PNG, target nominal ER
as anchor
Expansionary monetary policy: Inflationary
19. MONETARY POLICY (CONTD)
Rise in private sector credit in Fiji, SI & PNG
overheated the economy
Although PNG has a flexible exchange rate regime, it
does not rely on exchange rate as an adjustment
mechanism
PNG: Depreciation Worry: Rising import prices
PNG: preference for stable or appreciation of
exchange rate as a buffer against overseas inflation.
Samoa allowed appreciation of ER (CBS 2009)
20. SECONDARY ROLE
Monetary policy: At best only a secondary role in PICs.
PICs have to be watchful of their reserves.
Easing of monetary conditions: would fan growth in credit &
result in higher imports, leading to widening trade deficits.
Reserves of 4 PICs as of Dec 2008/latest month of May: below
targeted levels of import cover:
Fiji: 2.7 months of import cover against 4 months
SI: 2.1 months of import cover as against 3 months
Tonga:4.7 months of import cover as against 5 months.
Samoa:4.3 months of import cover as against 5 months
21. INFLATION: STILL A THREAT TO PICS
Inflation is another guiding indicator.
Only if inflation is below the normally targeted level
of 3% to 4% could any monetary expansion be
thought of.
As of May 2009, inflation is high in all countries:
Fiji: 5.5% for food items
PNG: 10.2%
Samoa: 12.4%
SI: 17.8%
VAN: 5.8%
23. Budget Balance: Selected PICs : 2005-2008
2005 2006 2007 2008
% of GDP % of GDP % of GDP % of GDP
Fiji -10.3 -2.9 -1.8 -1.5
Kiribati -2.8 -5.7 -3.4 -13
PNG 0.1 3.1 2.5 0
Samoa 0.3 -0.4 1.1 -3.2
Solomon Is. 0.6 0.7 -0.3 -5.6
Tonga 0.7 -4.3 1.4 2
Tuvalu -7.4 18.7 -14.3 -5.4
Vanuatu 2.1 0.9 0.1 6.3
Source: ADB (2009)
24. Current Account Balance (% of GDP) in Selected
PICs
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (est) 2010 (est)
Fiji -14.0 -22.5 -17.3 -21.3 -25.0 -25.0
PNG 12.4 7.3 2.0 8.7 -7.0 -6.0
Samoa -4.7 -9.9 -4.3 -10.2 NA NA
Solomon Is. 0.5 -4.1 -2.6 -4.9 -10.1 -12.1
Tonga -2.7 -9.6 -10.1 -10.8 NA NA
Vanuatu -6.1 -7.5 -9.9 -11.4 -13.2 -13.0
Source : UN ESCAP (2009), ADB (2009)
25. CAUTIOUS MONETARY POLICY STANCE
Central banks of 3 PICs (PNG, Solomon Islands, and
Tonga): No change in their cautious monetary stance
of not relaxing the tightening conditions they adopted
in 2008
PNG’s central bank noted clear signs of risks (MPS of
March 2009)
A larger than expected depreciation of the kina
exchange rate
Delays in the pass through of low import costs to
domestic prices by businesses
26. CAUTIOUS MONETARY POLICY STANCE
(Contd)
A rebound in international food and fuel prices;
Excessive Govt spending;
Fast drawdown of trust account funds
Rise in consumer demand in the event of fresh wage
increases
Despite lower inflation overseas, uncertain full impact
of downturn
Expected fall in export receipts
Effect of potential depreciation of the kina combined
with continued very strong domestic demand:
inflationary pressures in 2009.
27. TIGHT MONETARY POLICY IN PICS
(CONTD)
BANK OF PNG (BPNG): Tight monetary policy stance
in the first half of 2009
BPNG suggested a similar tight fiscal policy
BPNG: concerned with impact of rise in fiscal
spending on liquidity
BPNG advice to government: Reduce liquidity in the
banking system by transferring trust account funds
from the commercial banks to BPNG.
28. TIGHT MONETARY POLICY IN PICS
(CONTD)
CBSI: Concerned with current level of reserves was
below the Bank’s desired level sufficient to cover the
predicted next three months of imports.
CBSI : May 2009 MPS: To continue its past tight
monetary policy, as it “would prevent a hemorrhaging
of reserves” (CBSI 2009).
Tonga: NRBT in its May 2009 MPS recognized :
Vulnerability of the economy to external shocks such
as oil price increases
Adverse weather conditions
High dependence on imports & remittances
Importance of exchange rate & price stability
29. TIGHT MONETARY POLICY IN PICS
(CONTD)
Lower prices of imports facilitated by the weakening of
NZ
NRBT (2009) MPS: Any relaxation of monetary stance
would only lead to “a re-acceleration of credit growth
which would put pressure on domestic resources,
potentially leading to more inflation, higher imports
and lower foreign reserves.”
MPS noted: increased incidence of loan defaults &
wanted to maintain the financial health of the banking
system.
NRBT to maintain tightened conditions by “closely
monitoring growth in lending and foreign payments
obligations” & continuing the issue of NRBT notes when
necessary to ensure financial stability.”
30. TIGHT MONETARY POLICY IN PICS
(CONTD)
NRBT (2009) MPS: Any relaxation of monetary stance
would only lead to “a re-acceleration of credit growth
which would put pressure on domestic resources,
potentially leading to more inflation, higher imports
and lower foreign reserves.”
MPS noted: increased incidence of loan defaults &
wanted to maintain the financial health of the banking
system.
NRBT to maintain tightened conditions by “closely
monitoring growth in lending and foreign payments
obligations” & continuing the issue of NRBT notes when
necessary to ensure financial stability.”
31. PROACTIVE POLICIES
Vanuatu: In 2008: tightened monetary conditions in
the face of inflation
RBV raised rediscount rate by 25 basis points in
September 2008 to 6.25 percent.
In the second half of 2008:RBV relaxed policy
stance
Emergence of tight liquidity situation: bank excess
reserves falling to low levels
Dec 2008: RBV reduced rediscount rate to 6%
Further steps to alleviate the tight liquidity conditions.
32. PROACTIVE POLICIES (Contd)
VAN: Reductions in LAR ratio from 8% to 7% & SRD
ratio from 8.5% to 8% in November 2008.
Jan 2009: Further reduction in SRD ratio to 5%
Feb 2009: VAN: foreign reserves: 5.4 months of
import cover, above the target : 4 months of import
cover
Mar 2009 MPS: downward trend in tourism & export
earnings.
Fear of a widening of current account deficit
Downward pressure on foreign reserves
MPS: no further relaxation of monetary policy
33. PROACTIVE POLICIES (Contd)
Central banks of Fiji & Samoa: Eased monetary
conditions in 2009.
Fiji: in early 2009: Decline in reserves, decrease in
liquidity
April 2009: RBF lowered SRD ratio: 5% from 6%
April 10: Fiji devalued currency by 20%: Reason: ER
was out of alignment with the economic fundamentals.
Rise in domestic inflation: Rise in prices of all imported
items
Fiji’s intl. reserves: Revaluation: Went up to F$641
million in May 2009 from F$429 million in March
Moral suasion: RBF persuaded banks to freeze the
lending rate at December 2008 level & keep a spread
of not more than 4%
34. PROACTIVE POLICIES (Contd)
Samoa: Effective Feb 2009: Reduction in lending rate
from 7.8% to 5%
The term for such lending was increased from 7 days
to 30 days
Range of collaterals: extended
CBS reviewed MP Stance after May 2009 budget
Budget deficit : 11% of GDP
CBS has decided not to change the monetary policy
stance
35. DEVALUATION AS A REMEDY?
Prior to devaluation in PICs: Need for evaluation of pros
and cons during the current global crisis
If the exchange rate is out of line with macroeconomic
fundamentals, immediate option: correct the
fundamentals
Corrections: Reduce fiscal deficit by cutting of all non-
essentials
Reduce growth in private sector credit
Monetary tightening
Proactive measures: Appropriate production incentives
for exports
36. FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES
COORDINATION
BPNG : Central Banking Act 2000: BPNG : greater
independence in choice of policy instruments.
In other PICs: Degree of autonomy varies
In Samoa: Approval of cabinet is needed for changing
SRD ratio.
Regardless of autonomy, need of the hour is frequent
consultation between central banks and the ministries of
finance.
Renewed emphasis on coordination of fiscal and
monetary policies
37. NEED FOR COORDINATION (Contd)
Past experience: central banks were called upon at a later stage
when the economy used to get overheated with expansionary
fiscal policies
often in ending up with rise in public debt & sometimes in the
monetization of deficits
More of fire fighting exercise to put down inflationary pressures.
PNG’s central bank Governor Kamit put it thus: “Experience of the
1990s show that when there is excessive Government spending
there can be downward pressure on the exchange rate and high
inflation. And monetary policy is burdened with the task of
restoring macroeconomic stability. That is, monetary policy could
become preoccupied with the Government’s debt management”
(Kamit 2009).
38. CONCLUSIONS
Monetary policy can play only secondary role
Monetary policy transmission mechanism is slow &
ineffective in PICs
Monetary aggregate & credit channels: More effective
Sluggish interest rate-supply response
High inflation potential in the short run
Challenge is: “How to balance stimulation of economic
growth in an environment where inflation is a
threat”(CBS Gov Scanlan May 2009)
Deficit financing & cheap money policy: contribute to
boosting demand
Subsequent efforts to slowdown the economy carry
further risks of entrenching inflation and foster an
inflationary psychology
All central banks are watchful of reserves
39. CONCLUSIONS (Contd)
Cautious monetary policy stance
Moral suasion by central banks
RBF Governor’s plea to trade unions not to press for
wage rise
PICs: Avenues are open for supplementing domestic
resources from ADB assistance under US $3 billion
Countercyclical Support Facility (CSF).
ADB Assistance: Adds to real resources
Reduce inflationary pressures
Increases international reserves
40. BPNG’s MPS (March 2009) reflects concerns of
every PIC central bank governor
“The objective of economic stability will not be
achieved by monetary policy alone. It also requires
prudent management of fiscal policy by the
Government within the budget framework and its
medium term policies. Should export tax receipts be
lower than projected, expenditure should be
adjusted accordingly to avoid a reckless budget
blowout.
41. Central Bank Governor statement (Contd)
“It should also avoid excessive recurrent expenditure
and direct its expenditure effectively on the priority
areas of health, education, law and order, and physical
infrastructure, and reducing debt in line with the Medium
Term Debt Strategy.
“Efforts should be made to improve implementation
capacity for development expenditure and removal of
other impediments to investment consistent with the
medium term development, fiscal and debt strategies so
that economic growth is sustained in the medium term”.