MegaStrat longterm future scenarios

1. This project is co-funded by Erasmus + Programm of the European Union
under Grant Agreement No 2022-1-DE02-KA220-VET-000089366 © Copyright 2023 The MegaStrat Consortium
Defining Scenarios

2. This project is co-funded by Erasmus + Programm of the European Union
under Grant Agreement No 2022-1-DE02-KA220-VET-000089366 © Copyright 2023 The MegaStrat Consortium
The term "scenario" or "scene" is often used in everyday language. In the literature of futurology, however,
scenario is an essential construct that can be created in many different ways and for which there are various
definitions.
One definition that is suitable for the content and purposes outlined here is the following:
“narratives of alternative environments in which today’s decisions may be played out. They are not predictions.
Nor are they strategies. Instead they are more like hypotheses of different futures specifically designed to
highlight the risks and opportunities involved in specific strategic issues ” (Ogilvy & Schwartz, 1998: 1)
Experts Spaniol und Rowland (2019) define Sceanrio as follows:
❏ have a temporal property rooted in the future and reference external forces in that context
❏ scenarios should be possible and plausible while taking the proper form of a story or narrative description
❏ that scenarios exist in sets that are systematically prepared to coexist as meaningful alternatives to one
another.
The importance of scenarios lies primarily in their function as a transdisciplinary medium that combines scientific
knowledge production in various fields (e.g. emerging technologies, sustainability, innovation research) and links
it with the knowledge bases of political decision-makers (particularly from the administration) (Schaper-Rinkel,
2015)
Defining Scenarios