Mobile number portability could change the dynamics of Indian Telecom industry. There are plethora of possibilities that could happen This presentation explores one of them Based on probability and word of mouth principle.

1. Mobile Number Portability Understanding one of the many possible implications of MNP on existing players

3. 4:3:2:1 For every 10 switchers the probability of a switcher belonging to one of the top 3 players is greater than belonging to one of the many small players WHEN MNP IS IMPLEMENTED…. Ratio is of subscriber bases of top 3 players and all small players(assumed) operating in majority of circles

4. 4:3:2:1 Total -ve WOM generated by switchers of top 3 players put together or individually will be more than that generated by subscribers of individual small players…. EFFECT OF WOM … This will result in smaller players gaining subscribers and also inhibit switching from smaller players to larger players

5. 4:3:2:1 Even if interplay happens between top 3 players; the leader will be the biggest loser; the small players would still gain; though the gain would be relatively small INETRPLAY EFFECTS To maximize gains small players would have to invest in network capabilities and establishing their brand

6. 4:3:2:1 -ve WOM of the big players will also influence the 6-7 million subscribers added to mobile network every month NEW USERS Likelihood of greater numbers being attracted towards small players IMPACT ON FIRST TIMERS

7. 4:3:2:1 Small players must give incentives for the subscribers of big players to switch It comes down to what each of these small players do to win over the huge number of switchers TACTICS OF SMALL PLAYERS?

8. 4:3:2:1 Large players would charge high to hold subscribers whereas small players should not charge any fees and give incentives If each of the players is allowed to charge transfer fees as they wish TACTICS OF SMALL PLAYERS?

9. 4:3:2:1 INDICOM AIRCEL DoCoMo Network clarity VAS Pay per second If Majority of switching happens because of dissatisfaction with network quality then Indicom gains maximum if it communicates its network quality Because in India compared to the world the tariffs are the lowest resulting in low ARPU for service providers; players differentiating offer on price variable (tariff plans) may not be as successful WHO COULD POSSIBLY GAIN Assuming just these 3 as these are positioned on 3 distinct platforms and as FCB handles 2 of them

11. INDICOM AIRCEL DoCoMo Network clarity VAS Pay per second If TRAI makes it compulsory for service providers to have pay-per second schemes then DoCoMo loses its differentiation and VAS as a strategy is easily imitable and will be imitated when 3G is introduced Only Best Network Can Give Best Speed POSSIBLE WAY FORWARD FOR INDICOM When 3G is introduced Indicom has been rated as having best network quality; achievement it has failed to leverage by choosing not to communicate to consumers