Mechanical Trading For The Intelligent Investor

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Introducing technical analysis informed Mechanical Trading Systems to amplify the effectiveness of Benjamin Graham inspired Value Investing.

Economy & Finance

Mac Murray 上宣帝
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

The Research
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

The Research
• Mechanical Trading Systems
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

The Research
• Mechanical Trading Systems
• Identifying Long Term Trends
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

The Research
• Mechanical Trading Systems
• Identifying Long Term Trends
• Emerging Markets
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

The Research
• Mechanical Trading Systems
• Identifying Long Term Trends
• Emerging Markets
The Data
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

The Research
• Mechanical Trading Systems
• Identifying Long Term Trends
• Emerging Markets
The Data
• 6000 Years Raw Price Data
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

The Research
• Mechanical Trading Systems
• Identifying Long Term Trends
• Emerging Markets
The Data
• 6000 Years Raw Price Data
• World Federation of Exchanges
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

Mechanical Trading System
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

Mechanical Trading System
Determine In Advance:
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

Mechanical Trading System
• Entries: How and When to get in.
Determine In Advance:
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

Mechanical Trading System
• Entries: How and When to get in.
• Exits: How and When to get out.
Determine In Advance:
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

Mechanical Trading System
• Entries: How and When to get in.
• Exits: How and When to get out.
• Position Size: How much to buy/sell.
Determine In Advance:
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

Mechanical Trading System
• Entries: How and When to get in.
• Exits: How and When to get out.
• Position Size: How much to buy/sell.
• Index / Market Sector / Industry
Determine In Advance:
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

“The greatest benefit
of mechanical trading
systems is their
ability to reprogram
traders away from
destructive types of
behavior in favor of
successful trading
habits.”
Richard Weissman

Long-Term
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

Long-Term
• Parable of the Stewards
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

Long-Term
• Parable of the Stewards
• Seedtime and Harvest
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

Long-Term
• Parable of the Stewards
• Seedtime and Harvest
• Cycles:
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

Long-Term
• Parable of the Stewards
• Seedtime and Harvest
• Cycles:
oEconomic Cycles: Economic Cycle
Research Institute, Geoffrey H. Moore.
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

Long-Term
• Parable of the Stewards
• Seedtime and Harvest
• Cycles:
oEconomic Cycles: Economic Cycle
Research Institute, Geoffrey H. Moore
oExo-Economic Cycles: Foundation
for the Study of Cycles, Edward H. Dewey
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

Findings
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Findings
Are there non-random price patterns
which precede all long-term trends?
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

Findings
Are there non-random price patterns
which precede all long-term trends?
YES.
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

Findings
Are there non-random price patterns
which precede all long-term trends?
YES.
• 1st : Distinct. Easy to spot. Best seen on
larger time frames.
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

Findings
Are there non-random price patterns
which precede all long-term trends?
YES.
• 1st : Distinct. Easy to spot. Best seen on
larger time frames.
• 2nd : Recurring. Always occurs at the
inception of long term trends.
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

The Flag Formation
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

The Flag Formation
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved
Occurs approximately 3 times
every 10 years.

• 3 Moving Average Crossover
The Flag Formation

• 3 Moving Average Crossover
• 2 or 3 times every 10 years.
The Flag Formation

• 3 Moving Average Crossover
• 2 or 3 times every 10 years.
• >50% 1+ year long trends
The Flag Formation

Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

Intelligent Investor
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Intelligent Investor
Why I am a reluctant “technician”.
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

The CFO Study
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The CFO Study
2011: Largest CFO survey in history.
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

The CFO Study
2011: Largest CFO survey in history.
• Nearly 400 American CFOs surveyed.
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

The CFO Study
2011: Largest CFO survey in history.
• Nearly 400 American CFOs surveyed.
• Findings: 1 in 5 U.S. corporations
intentionally misrepresent earnings.
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

What This Means
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

What This Means
As far as the investing public is concerned,
the truth or falsehood of an earnings
statement is impossible to know.
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

What This Means
As far as the investing public is concerned,
the truth or falsehood of an earnings
statement is impossible to know.
Value Investing stands or falls on the
trustworthiness of the earnings number.
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

What Can I Do?
Source: Tradingeconomics.com

Intelligent Investor Entry
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

Intelligent Investor Entry
Intelligent Investor Buy Signal

Intelligent Investor Entry
Intelligent Investor Buy Signal
Look For Flag Formation

Intelligent Investor Entry
Intelligent Investor Buy Signal
Look For Flag Formation
YES

Intelligent Investor Entry
Intelligent Investor Buy Signal
Look For Flag Formation
Buy On Next New
Monthly High
YES

Intelligent Investor Entry
Intelligent Investor Buy Signal
Look For Flag Formation
Buy On Next New
Monthly High
YES NO

Intelligent Investor Entry
Intelligent Investor Buy Signal
Look For Flag Formation
Buy On Next New
Monthly High
Wait For Flag
Formation
YES NO

Intelligent Investor Exit
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

Intelligent Investor Exit
Either:
• Hold ‘til you die.

Intelligent Investor Exit
Either:
• Hold ‘til you die.
• Use MA to dictate your
exits.

Intelligent Investor Exit
Copyright © 2007-2017 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved
Consider a variation of:
• Sell 50% when short-
term MA crosses below
mid-term MA
• Sell 50% if mid-term
crosses below long-term
MA

Mechanical Trading For
Intelligent Investors?
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

Mechanical Trading For
Intelligent Investors?
Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved
How might we
harmonize the best
of Technical
Analysis with the
best of classic
Value Investing?

MECHANICAL
TRADING
FOR THE
INTELLIGENT
INVESTOR
Copyright © 2007-2017 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

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9. The Research • Mechanical Trading Systems • Identifying Long Term Trends • Emerging Markets The Data • 6000 Years Raw Price Data • World Federation of Exchanges Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

10. The Research • Mechanical Trading Systems • Identifying Long Term Trends • Emerging Markets The Data • 6000 Years Raw Price Data • World Federation of Exchanges • PSE Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

11.

16. Mechanical Trading System • Entries: How and When to get in. • Exits: How and When to get out. • Position Size: How much to buy/sell. Determine In Advance: Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

17. Mechanical Trading System • Entries: How and When to get in. • Exits: How and When to get out. • Position Size: How much to buy/sell. • Index / Market Sector / Industry Determine In Advance: Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

18. “The greatest benefit of mechanical trading systems is their ability to reprogram traders away from destructive types of behavior in favor of successful trading habits.” Richard Weissman

24. Long-Term • Parable of the Stewards • Seedtime and Harvest • Cycles: oEconomic Cycles: Economic Cycle Research Institute, Geoffrey H. Moore oExo-Economic Cycles: Foundation for the Study of Cycles, Edward H. Dewey Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

28. Findings Are there non-random price patterns which precede all long-term trends? YES. • 1st : Distinct. Easy to spot. Best seen on larger time frames. Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

29. Findings Are there non-random price patterns which precede all long-term trends? YES. • 1st : Distinct. Easy to spot. Best seen on larger time frames. • 2nd : Recurring. Always occurs at the inception of long term trends. Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

32. The Flag Formation

33. • 3 Moving Average Crossover The Flag Formation

34. • 3 Moving Average Crossover • 2 or 3 times every 10 years. The Flag Formation

35. • 3 Moving Average Crossover • 2 or 3 times every 10 years. • >50% 1+ year long trends The Flag Formation

36. • 3 Moving Average Crossover • 2 or 3 times every 10 years. • >50% 1+ year long trends The Flag Formation

39.

54. The CFO Study 2011: Largest CFO survey in history. • Nearly 400 American CFOs surveyed. • Findings: 1 in 5 U.S. corporations intentionally misrepresent earnings. Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

55. The CFO Study 2011: Largest CFO survey in history. • Nearly 400 American CFOs surveyed. • Findings: 1 in 5 U.S. corporations intentionally misrepresent earnings. • U.S.GAAP allows for intentional earnings misrepresentation by both public and private companies. --Ilia Dichev, John Graham, Campbell R.Harvey, and Shiva Rajgopal, “The Misrepresentation of Earnings” , Financial Analysts Journal, Volume 72 ·Number 1, ©2016 CFA Institute. Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

58. What This Means As far as the investing public is concerned, the truth or falsehood of an earnings statement is impossible to know. Value Investing stands or falls on the trustworthiness of the earnings number. Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

59. What This Means As far as the investing public is concerned, the truth or falsehood of an earnings statement is impossible to know. Value Investing stands or falls on the trustworthiness of the earnings number. Publicly available earnings data simply cannot be trusted. Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved

60. What Can I Do? Source: Tradingeconomics.com

62. Intelligent Investor Entry

63. Intelligent Investor Entry Intelligent Investor Buy Signal

64. Intelligent Investor Entry Intelligent Investor Buy Signal Look For Flag Formation

65. Intelligent Investor Entry Intelligent Investor Buy Signal Look For Flag Formation YES

66. Intelligent Investor Entry Intelligent Investor Buy Signal Look For Flag Formation YES

67. Intelligent Investor Entry Intelligent Investor Buy Signal Look For Flag Formation Buy On Next New Monthly High YES

68. Intelligent Investor Entry Intelligent Investor Buy Signal Look For Flag Formation Buy On Next New Monthly High YES NO

69. Intelligent Investor Entry Intelligent Investor Buy Signal Look For Flag Formation Buy On Next New Monthly High Wait For Flag Formation YES NO

70. Intelligent Investor Entry Intelligent Investor Buy Signal Look For Flag Formation Buy On Next New Monthly High Wait For Flag Formation YES NO

72. Intelligent Investor Exit

73. Intelligent Investor Exit Either:

74. Intelligent Investor Exit Either: • Hold ‘til you die.

75. Intelligent Investor Exit Either: • Hold ‘til you die. • Use MA to dictate your exits.

77. Intelligent Investor Exit Copyright © 2007-2017 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved Consider a variation of: • Sell 50% when short- term MA crosses below mid-term MA • Sell 50% if mid-term crosses below long-term MA

79. Mechanical Trading For Intelligent Investors? Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved How might we harmonize the best of Technical Analysis with the best of classic Value Investing?

80. Mechanical Trading For Intelligent Investors? Copyright © 2007-2020 by Mac Murray All Rights Reserved How might we harmonize the best of Technical Analysis with the best of classic Value Investing? Simple: Make your Value Investing purchase within the 3 months following the Flag Formation. You’ll be very happy you did.

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