2009 Q1 Presentation1
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The document summarizes the major events of 2008 and provides an outlook for 2009. It reviews the performance of various asset classes in 2008. It discusses the economic downturn, financial crisis events like the Madoff Ponzi scheme, and political events like the presidential election. It reflects on lessons learned from 2008, such as the importance of diversification. It outlines economic and investment themes for 2009, including the impact of economic stimulus, efforts to fight deflation, unemployment trends, attractive equity and debt valuations, ongoing real estate issues, and increased regulation.
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2009 Q1 Presentation1
- 1. The Year in Review What happened and where are we going? Presenters: Patrick Collins, CFP®, EA- Principal Joshua Itzoe, CFP ® , AIF ® - Principal
- 2. Major Market Indices Performance Data as of 12/31/2008 MSCI EM MSCI EAFE DJ Wilshire REIT Russell 3000 DJ-AIG Commodity iBoxx High Yield Citigroup ESBI Lehman Treasury TIPS 3 month T-bill Lehman US Aggregate Bond Citigroup WGBI ex-US Index 5.1 -7.1 -54.5 Emerging Mkt Stocks 1.7 -7.4 -43.4 Foreign Developed Mkt Stocks 0.7 -12.0 -39.2 REITs -2.0 -8.6 -37.3 US Stocks 0.2 -8.6 -35.6 Commodities -0.8 -5.1 -23.9 High Yield Bonds 5.4 1.5 -10.9 Emerging Mkt Bonds 4.1 3.1 -2.4 TIPS 3.4 4.1 2.1 Cash 4.6 5.5 5.2 US Bonds 6.0 9.5 10.1 Foreign Developed Mkt Bonds 5yr 3yr 1yr Asset Class
- 3. Major Financial & Political Events Financial Meltdown Accelerates Recession Bernie Madoff Ponzi Scheme Oil Price & Stock Market Volatility Monumental Presidential Election Free Market Capitalism is Tested Continued Housing Freefall Destruction of Investment Banking Model Continued War on Terror
- 8. Unemployment
- 9. Equity Valuations Data from Robert Shiller: Irrational Exuberance
- 10. Equity Valuations Data from Robert Shiller: Irrational Exuberance
- 11. Debt Valuations
- 12. Debt Valuations
- 14. Regulation is Coming "In today's regulatory environment, it's virtually impossible to violate rules...it's impossible for a violation to go undetected, and certainly not for a considerable period of time." — Bernard Madoff, Oct. 27, 2007.
- 15. Questions Thank you for attending! The recording of this conference will posted on our website shortly. www.greenspringwealth.com
Editor's Notes
- Hello everyone, we are going to get started. We’d like to thank everyone for attending our first of a series of quarterly conference calls for clients and friends of our firm. My name is Josh Itzoe, and I am a principal here at Greenspring Wealth Management. I am joined by Patrick Collins another principal of the firm who will be conducting the second half of the presentation. We have everyone on the call on listen only mode, and we have allocated some time at the end of the call for Q&A, during which time the phones will be taken off mute. For those of you viewing the webinar online, in the bottom right portion of your screen you’ll see a button that allows you to switch between “Full Screen” and “Fit to Screen”. Please realize the “fit to screen” option may cause some of the images to get a little fuzzy depending on your monitor. Also, we’ve had some difficulty with this service recently, so if we have any technical difficulties, please bear with us. For those on the call not familiar with Greenspring Wealth Management, we are a wealth management firm located in Towson, Maryland serving both Private and Institutional Clients. With both principals coming from large brokerage firms, we started this company with a different vision; to focus on providing objective and comprehensive advice to clients. We feel like we are able to accomplish this through two main differences: first, we are fee-only meaning that we do not accept commissions to sell products. Second, we have limited our client base to no more than 75 clients per team consisting of a Lead Advisor, Analyst and Client Service Manager. Anyone who wants to learn more can visit our website at greenspringwealth.com. Now, getting to the topic at hand. The start of the year always is a great time to assess what happened in the past and look forward to the future. As everyone knows 2008 was a particularly tough year with nearly every major risky asset class losing significant value. Returns for US stocks ended up being the worst since 1933 and the S&P 500 was down more than 50% from its peak at one point during the year. While the news remains bleak, we are still confident that capital markets work and while this recession will be one of the worst we have seen, the markets will eventually recover. On this call we hope to review were we have been and discuss our thoughts regarding the upcoming year.