The document summarizes a presentation by John Roach on grain price outlook and market strategies. It discusses factors that drove 2009 grain prices, including low global soybean crops and late US corn and soybean planting. It also outlines current fundamentals like rising world grain stocks and loosening supplies. The presentation provides guidelines for farmers on how to market crops, including selling in the first half of the year, using sell signals, storing grains, and using put options to cover unsold supply.

1. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Grain Price Outlook and Market Strategies Presented by: John Roach March 18, 2010

2. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. What fundamentals drove 2009 grain prices?

3. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. #1 - World Soybean Crop down 27.4 million tons = 34% of entire U.S. Crop

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5. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. #3- On May 17 only 62% of the U.S. corn crop was planted with Illinois at 20%. Beans were 25% planted with Illinois at 1%

6. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. What are the Fundamentals Now?

7. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Aug forecast +31.5 MMT Nov & Dec +39.4 - Jan +42.58 Feb & March +44.16 MMT

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27. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. FSU-12 Exports 2007-8 – 27.47 MMT 2008-9 – 54.71 MMT 2009-10 – 49.50 MMT U.S. Corn Exports 2007-8 – 69.89 MMT 2008-9 – 51.17 MMT 2009-10 – 55.79 MMT U.S. Wheat Exports 2007-8 – 34.36 MMT 2008-9 – 27.64 MMT 2009-10 – 22.45 MMT

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30. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. USDA 2009 World Corn Yields 12/10/09 Non – U.S. 58.9 Bu/Acre World 80.3 Bu/Acre U.S. 162.9 Bu/Acre

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49. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. How Should I Market My Crops?

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54. What is it worth? The 5 Year Ave. of Dec corn during Oct – Nov $3.07 0.66 The 5 Year Ave. of Dec corn during Roach Mar – June Sell Signals = $3.73

55. What is it worth? 150 bpa X 0.66 = $100 per acre

58. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sell & Buy Signals Your Digital Thermometer For Prices

59. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sell Signals When Both Lines Are Above 75 = Sell Signal

60. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag 2007 Corn Sell Signals 56 Days of Sell Signals ($3.91) and 272 Days Without ($3.71)

65. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract

66. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract

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68. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract

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70. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract

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74. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. December 2009 Corn Sales Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract

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76. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract

77. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract

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79. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract

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81. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract

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85. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract

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89. Put Option Charts

91. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. The Information Revolution is Driving the Long Term Demand for Milk, Meat, and Eggs

92. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. 7601 N. Federal Hwy Suite 265-B Boca Raton, FL 33487 800-622-7628 [email_address] http://www.roachag.com