Global air cargo capacity has increased 1% over the last two weeks. However, weak demand due to high inflation and interest rates is lowering airfreight rates. Meanwhile, ocean freight rates have declined 2% this week and are down 78% from last year, though they remain above pre-pandemic levels. Shipping lines are increasing effective capacity in June across major trade routes, with the largest increase of 11% expected for Asia-Med. Port congestion has also improved with global schedule reliability up 7.7% in February.

1. Market
Insight
M a y 2 n d

2. After a surge in spot rates last week, with
Drewry's World Container Index (WCI) rising by
4% to $1,774 per 40ft container on 20 April, spot
rates receded this week. As of 27 April, the WCI
declined by 2% to $1,740, representing a slump
of 78% from the same period in 2022. The
recent rise in spot rates may have been due
to midApril's Transpacific GRIs.
However, with weak demand, because of high
inflation and interest rate hikes, constraining
consumer spending, and the impending arrival of
containership orders in the market, causing
further imbalances, the surge in spot rates is
expected to be temporary.
Considering the current market conditions,
shippers and BCOs should be cautious about
the consequences of a slump in spot rates as
carriers may resort to capacity reduction
measures, such as blank sailings, service
suspension, and idling, to curb the fall in
rates. This is likely to result in a lower quality
of service for shippers and BCOs.
120,621
Commercial flights flown
per day in 2023,
vs. 93,087 in 2022
+1%
Global international air
cargo capacity compared to
2019
US$2.56
Average rate in US$ per kilo
(-1% since April 15)
60.2%
Schedule reliability in
February, 7.7% higher
than January
54
Canceled sailings in the
next 4 weeks, 2 more
than two weeks ago
-2%
Industry-wide freight rates
on all routes (compared
to last week), -78% vs.
peak in Sept21
KEY FINDINGS

3. Airfreight capacity on the north Atlantic is soaring as US
mega-carriers aggressively increase international flying
– but this is pushing down rates.
Transatlantic capacity surge by US carriers
drives air rates down further
MARKET NEWS
Link to source
Container depots in China are full and having to turn
away new customers, following a slowdown in exports.
China’s container depots fill up as exports
feel the pinch
Link to source
Unlike many of their international counterparts, Mexican
airports have continued to process growing cargo
volumes – and operators predict further expansion.
Carriers watch as Mexico’s airfreight
volumes continue to grow
Link to source
The allegations, which appear to have a limited effect on
cargo flow, mark another labor management dispute at
the ports.
Port employers say local union is slowing
operations at LA/LB terminals
Link to source
Maersk, CMA CGM and other shipping giants are
looking toward the skies as they compete with the
traditional forwarding model.
Ocean carriers push forward with air cargo
ambitions despite demand slowdown
Link to source
Unions gave a notice of a 24h strike in French ports for
April 13th. Daily work stoppages of 4h also took place
from April 8th to 14th, 2023.
Strikes in French ports
Link to source

4. AIR
FREIGHT

5. Chargeable weight Rates including charges
Rates (US$) 2021
Rates (US$) 2022
Chargeable weight 2021
Chargeable weight 2022
Last two weeks compared with the preceding two weeks
Last five weeks
+0%
Worldwide chargeable weight
compared to April 10
US$2.56
Average rate in US$ per kilo
(+1% from last week)
-10%
Worldwide chargeable weight
compared to last year
-37%
Average rate in US$ per kilo
compared to last year
CHARGEABLE WEIGHT AND RATES
Source : WorldACD

6.  Global air cargo capacity has increased +1% over the last two weeks with moderate growth by all aircraft types. Limited changes occurred compared to the
previous two weeks.
 As Q1 2023 air cargo demand is very soft, demand-supply balance reverts to below pre-COVID levels. Double digit air trade decline coupled with air cargo
capacity augmentation lowers load factors and has impact on yields.
 Summer schedules for Asia Pacific indicate widebody belly capacity to surpass summer 2022 levels by +44%. While “Rest of the world” scheduled widebody
belly capacity is again nearing pre-COVID, Asia Pacific is expected to still be -31% down.
S o u r c e : S e a b u r y
Strong capacity growth between Asia Pacific and Middle East & South Asia
Global capacity net growth: +1%
GLOBAL INTERNATIONAL AIR CARGO CAPACITY
March 2023 vs 2019
Source : Seabury

7. International air cargo capacity, January 2020 - March 2023
Thousand tons per week
S o u r c e : S e a b u r y
Double digit air trade decline coupled with air cargo capacity augmentation lowers load factors and has impact on yields
GLOBAL INTERNATIONAL AIR CARGO CAPACITY EVOLUTION
Source : Seabury
CAPACITY VS. 2019
VS. PREVIOUS
TWO WEEKS
Total capacity +3% +3%
Airline freighters +14% +2%
Passenger belly
Widebody aircraft only
-21% +1%
Integrator freighters +36% -1%

8. Number of commercial flights per day
Commercial passenger flights + cargo flights + charter flights + some business jet flights
13,289,233
Commercial flights flown in 2023, 22% more
than in 2022
120,621
Commercial flights flown per day in 2023,
vs. 93,087 in 2022
COMMERCIAL FLIGHTS TRACKER
2023 2021 2020 2019
Source : Flightradar24
2022

9. OCEAN
FREIGHT

10.  Drewry expects effective ship capacity to increase by 5% on average between May and June across major East-West trades, with the highest rise of 11%
on Asia-Med, where we expect 43% fewer cancelled sailings in June than in May.
 Effective capacity is projected to fall by 2% on South Asia-North Europe and remain stable on South Asia-Med.
CONTAINER MARKET FORECAST – JUNE
% change of effective capacity
% change of spot freight rates
Total cancelled sailings vs total
scheduled sailings
Source : Drewry
+2
% growth MoM

11.  The composite index has decreased by 2% this week, and has dropped by 78% when compared with the same week last year.
 The latest Drewry WCI composite index of $1,740 per 40-foot container is now 83% below the peak of $10,377 reached in September 2021. It is 35% lower
than the 10-year average of $2,688, indicating a return to more normal prices, but remains 23% higher than average 2019 (pre-pandemic) rates of $1,420.
SCFI (Europe)
Drewry World Container Index
GLOBAL FREIGHT RATES
US$/40’CONTAINER US$/TEU
Source : Drewry
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000

12. Cancelled sailings by Alliance Percentage of cancelled sailings
Total cancelled sailings Total scheduled sailings
CANCELLED SAILINGS FORECAST – WEEKS 18 TO 22
Source : Drewry
8 17 26
3
54
120
172.5
142.5
240
675
0
200
400
600
800
2M Alliance Ocean Alliance THE Alliance Others Total
8%
92%

13.  Effective capacity on the Asia-ECNA trade will expand YoY by 2% and by 9% on the Asia-WCNA trade.
 The Asia-North Europe trade capacity will be stable during the same period, while Asia-Med will expand by 13% YoY.
 We also expect 30% YoY growth on North Europe-North America and 24% YoY growth on Med-North America during the same period.
 Meanwhile, we expect effective capacity to expand by 40% on South Asia-North Europe and surge 51% on South Asia-Med.
South Asia – North Europe and Med
East – West major trades
EFFECTIVE CAPACITY FORECAST – JUNE
TEU TEU
2,000,000
0
1,500,000
1,250,000
1,000,000
750,000
500,000
250,000
1,750,000
Source : Drewry

14. GLOBAL SCHEDULE RELIABILITY
Global schedule reliability
%
Global average delays for late vessel arrivals
Days
 Global schedule reliability increased sharply by 7.7 percentage points M/M in February 2023, reaching 60.2%. On a Y/Y level, schedule reliability was a
staggering 26.0 percentage points higher.
 The average delay for late vessel arrivals also decreased, dropping by -0.07 days M/M in February 2023 to 5.29 days, and was down -2.30 days Y/Y. In
relative terms, the average delay for LATE vessel arrivals is now closer to the 2019 level than to the highs of 2021-2022.
Source : Sea Intelligence
60.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
5.29 days
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

15. WORLDWIDE PORT CONGESTION
Waiting time for berth as of April 15th
Usual traffic Congested Highly congested
Source : Bolloré Logistics
Check the interactive map on Tableau here : MAP

16. bollore-logistics.com A brand of
F i n d o u r m a r k e t u p d a t e s a t a l l
t i m e s h e r e :
MARKET INSIGHT