Transformational adaptation - Mark Howden, CSIRO
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The document discusses the concept of transformational adaptation to climate change in the context of agriculture. It provides examples of transformational changes in agriculture that have occurred historically in response to environmental changes. These include changes from sheep to beef production and adjustments to cropping regions. The document also examines the potential role of science in understanding and facilitating transformational adaptation through case studies, predictive research, and establishing policies and information to expand options and address risks. There are differing views on whether transformational change is seen as failure or as an opportunity in response to climate change.
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Impact of climate change on wheat phenology in the NSW wheat belt - De Li LiuClimate Change Research Strategy for Primary Industries
The document models the impacts of climate change on wheat flowering times in the NSW wheat belt of Australia. It finds that under climate change, spring wheat flowering times will be shortened, especially with earlier sowing dates. Winter wheat flowering times will be shortened in cooler eastern regions and lengthened in warmer western regions. Heat stress risks for spring wheat increase with late sowing dates after 2070, though grain filling stress may decrease due to earlier flowering. For winter wheat, heat stress risks during flowering and grain filling increase in some northwestern regions after 2030. The document recommends adapting sowing dates, changing varieties, and breeding slower developing spring varieties.Will climate change negate better farm management for improving water quality...
Will climate change negate better farm management for improving water quality...Climate Change Research Strategy for Primary Industries
1) The study uses a farming systems model to compare the effects of improved agricultural management practices and predicted climate change on sugarcane yields and nitrogen loads in the Mackay-Whitsunday region.
2) Adopting best management practices (Class A) is found to significantly reduce nitrogen loads compared to conventional practices (Class D), with an effect much greater than any predicted climate change scenario.
3) While climate change may impact yields, moving to the best practices provides water quality improvements regardless of climate scenario due to large nitrogen load reductions.Managing crop production uncertainties and climate variability through a map-...
Managing crop production uncertainties and climate variability through a map-...Climate Change Research Strategy for Primary Industries
Managing crop production uncertainties and climate variability though a map-based system. The document discusses how Bungulla Farming, which operates 7,200 hectares of cropping land in Australia, uses a map-based system to manage risks and increase productivity in the face of increasing input costs, volatile grain prices, and climate change impacts like decreasing rainfall. Key data layers like soil nutrients, climate records, water availability, and machinery operations are integrated into interactive farm maps to help make strategic decisions at critical points and increase nitrogen use efficiency and targeted weed control.Can flexibility be built into cropping systems for adapting to climate uncert...
Can flexibility be built into cropping systems for adapting to climate uncert...Climate Change Research Strategy for Primary Industries
This project aims to demonstrate ways for wheat cropping systems in Western Australia to adapt to climate uncertainty through increased flexibility. Potential strategies discussed include:
1) Growing varieties with desirable stability/plasticity of yield components under varying conditions.
2) Strategically structuring plant populations using varietal mixtures to maximize buffering against stress.
3) Controlling populations by killing part of the crop later in the season if weather forecasts indicate dry and warm conditions to reduce yield loss.Managing future agricultural production in a variable and changing climate - ...
Managing future agricultural production in a variable and changing climate - ...Climate Change Research Strategy for Primary Industries
This document summarizes a project that aims to help Australian farmers manage future agricultural production in a changing climate. The project brings together experts and farmers to discuss potential climate impacts and adaptation options. Farmers provide local knowledge of cropping systems while experts use crop modeling and simulations to evaluate adaptation strategies. The research shows that combining local expertise with modeling is needed to develop effective regional adaptations, as climate change impacts and solutions will vary locally. Adapting to significant climate change remains a challenge across Australia.An integrated assessment of land use change in the Border Rivers-Gwydir catch...
An integrated assessment of land use change in the Border Rivers-Gwydir catch...Climate Change Research Strategy for Primary Industries
This document summarizes research on the potential for land use change in the Border Rivers-Gwydir Catchment region of Australia to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions through carbon sequestration. The research analyzed the carbon sequestration potential and costs of converting land to different uses like forests and environmental plantings. It found that mixed-species environmental plantings and Pinus radiata plantations have the highest carbon sequestration potential. However, targeting only regions with the highest sequestration may not be the lowest-cost strategy. The results are sensitive to the discount rate used in the analysis.Agricultural adaptation during times of change - Thilak Mallawaarachchi
Agricultural adaptation during times of change - Thilak MallawaarachchiClimate Change Research Strategy for Primary Industries
This document discusses agricultural adaptation to climate change. It notes that adaptation involves finding ways to deal with issues like less water and higher temperatures. Crop adaptation is the basis of agriculture and involves the relationship between environmental factors and plant growth. Climate risks go beyond individual farms and are linked through markets. Increasing uncertainty due to climate change affects available options and outcomes. The document examines factors like declining terms of trade and total factor productivity in Australian agriculture over time. It discusses challenges like path dependence and separating climate change from natural variability when making adaptation decisions.Future Farm Industries Cooperative Research Centre: profitable perennials - B...
Future Farm Industries Cooperative Research Centre: profitable perennials - B...Climate Change Research Strategy for Primary Industries
1. The Future Farm Industries Cooperative Research Centre aims to develop profitable perennial pastures and farming systems to change the nature of farming, create new industries, and improve natural resource management in southern Australia.
2. The CRC conducts research and development with partners to increase productivity, develop new regional industries using woody crops, and reduce environmental degradation through perennials. It estimates monetary benefits of $808 million by 2021 and $2.51 billion by 2030 from adopting perennial systems.
3. An analysis of adopting new perennial pastures in Western Victoria found they can improve farm profitability through increased carrying capacity and returns on investment, but results depend on climate variability and supplementary feeding costs.Yield Prophet and precision agriculture - a suitable tool for risk management...
Yield Prophet and precision agriculture - a suitable tool for risk management...Climate Change Research Strategy for Primary Industries
The document discusses how yield prophet and precision agriculture tools can help farmers in the North Agricultural Region of Western Australia better manage risk and increase productivity by accounting for significant seasonal production volatility and soil variability within fields. It provides examples of how yield prophet has accurately predicted yields when soils are well characterized and highlights the need for experienced operators and thorough soil testing to set up accurate soil zones and variable rate crop management.Practical management of climate variability in a changing climate - Peter McI...
Practical management of climate variability in a changing climate - Peter McI...Climate Change Research Strategy for Primary Industries
This document summarizes research on using seasonal climate forecasts to inform nitrogen application strategies for wheat farming in order to maximize profits while minimizing risk. Simulations show that a forecast-informed conservative nitrogen management strategy can increase farm profits from $235K to $402K compared to no forecast. A moderately skillful forecast was found to pay for itself within 7 years with a 80% chance of paying off within 3 years. Adopting mixed farming practices and incorporating seasonal forecasts provides additional financial benefits for dealing with climate variability.An historical analysis of the changes in pasture production and growing seaso...
An historical analysis of the changes in pasture production and growing seaso...Climate Change Research Strategy for Primary Industries
This document summarizes research analyzing changes in pasture production and growing seasons in three dairy regions of Southeast Australia over several decades. Biophysical models were used to simulate pasture growth rates based on definitions of growing season length and wet or dry conditions. The models accurately represented measured pasture growth rates. Historical analyses of the three regions from 1960 to 2008 found changes in the start and end dates of the growing seasons over time.Attitudes to climate change in southern NSW - Jan Edwards
Attitudes to climate change in southern NSW - Jan EdwardsClimate Change Research Strategy for Primary Industries
- The document discusses a climate change adaptation project in Southern NSW that engaged local farmers through case studies and surveys to understand their attitudes towards and preparation for climate change.
- Preliminary survey results found that farmers were uncertain about the impacts of climate change but many agreed that droughts would increase and temperatures would rise.
- While many farmers intended to stay committed to farming, they were open to adapting their practices like using more drought-tolerant crops or increasing water conservation.Resilience surfaces for pasture production under climate change scenarios - B...
Resilience surfaces for pasture production under climate change scenarios - B...Climate Change Research Strategy for Primary Industries
The document discusses the projected impacts of climate change on pasture production in southern Australia. It summarizes climate projections showing increased temperatures and decreased rainfall by 2030, 2050, and 2070. It then describes how a modeling approach was used to explore the effects of these climate changes on annual pasture growth. The modeling indicated higher winter production but shorter springs under warmer and drier conditions. Finally, it recommends a focus on heat-tolerant and water-efficient species as adaptations to support resilient pasture systems into the future.Grains best management practice for managing climate threats and opportunitie...
Grains best management practice for managing climate threats and opportunitie...Climate Change Research Strategy for Primary Industries
The document discusses conclusions from a previous study or analysis. In 3 sentences or less, it summarizes the key findings and outcomes of the research without providing unnecessary details. The summary captures the most important essence and implications of the conclusions.More from Climate Change Research Strategy for Primary Industries (20)
Can we reduce nitrous oxide emissions from crops? - Sally Officer
Can we reduce nitrous oxide emissions from crops? - Sally Officer
Is it commercially viable to use dicyandiamide on a dairy farm in south-weste...
Is it commercially viable to use dicyandiamide on a dairy farm in south-weste...
How will the impact of elevated carbon dioxide on grain production vary with ...
How will the impact of elevated carbon dioxide on grain production vary with ...
A field study on the impact of the nitrification inhibitor DMPP on nitrous ox...
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Securing pulses under changed climates - Rebecca Ford
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Nutrient supply, below ground processes and elevated CO2 change the nutrition...
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Will climate change negate better farm management for improving water quality...
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Can flexibility be built into cropping systems for adapting to climate uncert...
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An integrated assessment of land use change in the Border Rivers-Gwydir catch...
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Agricultural adaptation during times of change - Thilak Mallawaarachchi
Agricultural adaptation during times of change - Thilak Mallawaarachchi
Future Farm Industries Cooperative Research Centre: profitable perennials - B...
Future Farm Industries Cooperative Research Centre: profitable perennials - B...
Yield Prophet and precision agriculture - a suitable tool for risk management...
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Practical management of climate variability in a changing climate - Peter McI...
Practical management of climate variability in a changing climate - Peter McI...
An historical analysis of the changes in pasture production and growing seaso...
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Attitudes to climate change in southern NSW - Jan Edwards
Attitudes to climate change in southern NSW - Jan Edwards
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Resilience surfaces for pasture production under climate change scenarios - B...
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- 1. Transformational adaptation Mark Howden, Snow Barlow, Sarah Park, Usay Nidumolu and Lauren Rickards Presentation to the CCRSPI Conference, Melbourne, February 2011, Copyright CSIRO
- 4. Different degrees of adaptation Varieties, planting times, spacing Stubble, water, nutrient and canopy management etc Production chain approaches Climate change-ready germplasm Diversification and risk management Transformation from landuse or distribution change New products such as ecosystem services Climate change Benefit from adaptation Increasing complexity, cost and risk (Howden et al. 2010)
- 8. Rice industry Laurie Arthur to present on this
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- 10. ‘ High rainfall zone’ cropping An extra 52000ha cropped : Nidumolu (2010)
- 17. Thank you Climate Adaptation Flagship Dr Mark Howden Theme Leader Phone: +61 2 6242 1679 Email: mark.howden@csiro.au Contact Us Phone: 1300 363 400 Email: Enquiries@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au Website: www.csiro.au/org/ClimateAdaptationFlagship