This document discusses managing risk dormancy in multi-team work. It provides an example of a scaffolding project involving multiple teams where the actions of one team, such as excavation, could destabilize the scaffold and create a dormant risk for other teams using the scaffold later. It also gives an example of power line maintenance involving serial work by engineering, electrician, and lineman teams where an error in one team's actions could endanger another. The document reviews literature on multi-team risk models and proposes a probabilistic model to better understand and manage dormant risks that can arise from the dynamic conditions of multi-team work over time and space.
This document discusses the concept of resilience. It defines resilience as "the skill and capacity to be robust under conditions of enormous stress and change." While resilience is simple to define, it is difficult to develop in today's complex, rapidly changing world. The document argues that organizational resilience requires the ability to respond quickly to unforeseen changes, even chaotic disruptions. It also discusses the importance of resilience and examines some of the components involved in cultivating resilience within an organization, including strategic planning, infrastructure development, and business continuity planning.
This document discusses human supervisory control in advanced manufacturing systems (AMS). It defines supervisory control as human operators programming and receiving information from a computer connected to controlled processes. The key functions of supervisory control are identified as plan, teach, monitor, intervene, and learn. Determinants of multitasking performance in AMS are discussed, including scheduling, switching, confusion, cooperation and limited processing resources. The multiple resources theory, which proposes three dimensions (stages, input modality, processing codes) along which resources can be allocated, is presented as explaining multitasking performance better than the single resource theory.
PAPERS20 April 2013 ■ Project Management Jou.docxdanhaley45372
P
A
P
E
R
S
20 April 2013 ■ Project Management Journal ■ DOI: 10.1002/pmj
INTRODUCTION ■
U
ncertainty is both a reality and great challenge for most projects
(Chapman & Ward, 2003; Hillson, 2010). The presence of risk creates
surprises throughout the project life cycle, affecting everything
from technical feasibility to cost, market timing, financial perform-
ance, and strategic objectives (Hillson, 1999; Loch, Solt, & Bailey, 2008;
Thieme, Song, & Shin, 2003). Yet, to succeed in today’s ultracompetitive envi-
ronment, management must deal with these risks effectively despite these
difficulties (Buchanan & O’Connell, 2006; Patil, Grantham, & Steele, 2012;
Shenhar, 2001; Shenhar, Milosevic, Dvir, & Thamhain, 2007; Srivannaboon &
Milosevic, 2006). This concerns executives, and it is not surprising that lead-
ers in virtually all organizations, from commerce to government, spend
much of their time and effort dealing with risk-related issues. Examples trace
back to ancient times that include huge infrastructure projects and military
campaigns. Writings by Sun Tzu articulated specific risks and suggested
mitigation methods 2,500 years ago (Hanzhang & Wilkinson, 1998). Risk
management is not a new idea. However, in today’s globally connected, fast-
changing business world with broad access to resources anywhere, and pres-
sures for quicker, cheaper, and smarter solutions, projects have become
highly complex and intricate. Many companies try to leverage their
resources and accelerate their schedules by forming alliances, consortia, and
partnerships with other firms, universities, and government agencies that
range from simple cooperative agreements to “open innovation,” a concept
of scouting for new product and service ideas anywhere in the world. In such
an increasingly complex and dynamic business environment, risks lurk in
many areas, not only associated with the technical part of the work, but also
including social, cultural, organizational, and technological dimensions. In
fact, research studies have suggested that much of the root cause of project-
related risks can be traced to the organizational dynamics and multidiscipli-
nary nature that characterizes today’s business environment, especially for
technology-based developments (R. Cooper, Edgett, & Kleinschmidt, 2001;
Torok, Nordman, & Lin, 2011). The involvement of many people, processes,
and technologies spanning different organizations, support groups, subcon-
tractors, vendors, government agencies, and customer communities com-
pounds the level of uncertainty and distributes risk over a wide area of the
enterprise and its partners (Thamhain, 2004; Thamhain & Wilemon, 1999),
often creating surprises with potentially devastating consequences. This
paradigm shift leads to changing criteria for risk management. To be effec-
tive in dealing with the broad spectrum of risk factors, project leaders must
go beyond the mechanics of analyzing the work a.
Minimization of Risks in Construction projectsIRJET Journal
This document discusses risk management in construction projects. It begins by defining risk and explaining the importance of risk management in development projects. It then reviews the results of a survey on risks affecting construction projects in India. The top three risks identified were financial issues, site accidents, and inadequate planning. The study found that contractors are typically responsible for risks occurring during project execution, like issues with subcontractors or quality, while clients are responsible for risks like financial issues or changes to specifications. The best preventative risk management strategies identified were thorough planning using past project data and experience. The best corrective strategies once risks occur were close monitoring and coordination of activities. The document concludes that thorough planning and strong coordination during implementation are key to better managing projects
A new conceptual framework to improve the application of occupational health...Diandra Rosari
This document presents a new conceptual framework for improving the application of occupational health and safety management systems (OHS MS) in organizations. The framework focuses on three key areas: 1) the people in the organization, 2) the physical workplace, and 3) management systems. By examining potential hazards that can arise within, between, and outside each of these three areas, a unique "hazard profile" can be determined for an organization. This hazard profile provides the foundation for a tailored OHS MS that effectively addresses the specific risks faced by that organization. The framework is intended to simplify OHS MS implementation and make the benefits more clear, especially for smaller businesses.
This document provides a summary of recent literature related to scheduling problems, with a focus on problems involving multiple parallel machines or devices. It discusses surveys and articles on scheduling problems in various contexts like industry, cloud/edge computing, and mobile networks. The document aims to give a comprehensive overview of the different approaches and algorithms used to address scheduling problems in emerging fields driven by technological progress, such as modern factories, mobile networks, cloud computing, and fog/edge computing. It observes that heuristics and approximate algorithms are increasingly important for scheduling problems due to the complexity introduced by uncertainties.
Explosion Damage and Injury Assessment Modeling: Balancing Model Sophisticati...BREEZE Software
This paper will present the technological foundations of the BREEZE Explosion Damage Assessment Model (ExDAM) which seeks to fill the "sophistication gap" between purely distance-based simple models and CFD tools.
In this paper, the Vapor Cloud Explosion Damage Assessment module in BREEZE ExDAM is used to demonstrate a high speed 3D modeling technique that can quickly generate 3D models of large-scale chemical/petroleum facilities, simulate the consequences of individual release scenarios, and compute the maximum consequence levels resulting from explosions at all identified congestion zones.
This document discusses the concept of resilience. It defines resilience as "the skill and capacity to be robust under conditions of enormous stress and change." While resilience is simple to define, it is difficult to develop in today's complex, rapidly changing world. The document argues that organizational resilience requires the ability to respond quickly to unforeseen changes, even chaotic disruptions. It also discusses the importance of resilience and examines some of the components involved in cultivating resilience within an organization, including strategic planning, infrastructure development, and business continuity planning.
This document discusses human supervisory control in advanced manufacturing systems (AMS). It defines supervisory control as human operators programming and receiving information from a computer connected to controlled processes. The key functions of supervisory control are identified as plan, teach, monitor, intervene, and learn. Determinants of multitasking performance in AMS are discussed, including scheduling, switching, confusion, cooperation and limited processing resources. The multiple resources theory, which proposes three dimensions (stages, input modality, processing codes) along which resources can be allocated, is presented as explaining multitasking performance better than the single resource theory.
PAPERS20 April 2013 ■ Project Management Jou.docxdanhaley45372
P
A
P
E
R
S
20 April 2013 ■ Project Management Journal ■ DOI: 10.1002/pmj
INTRODUCTION ■
U
ncertainty is both a reality and great challenge for most projects
(Chapman & Ward, 2003; Hillson, 2010). The presence of risk creates
surprises throughout the project life cycle, affecting everything
from technical feasibility to cost, market timing, financial perform-
ance, and strategic objectives (Hillson, 1999; Loch, Solt, & Bailey, 2008;
Thieme, Song, & Shin, 2003). Yet, to succeed in today’s ultracompetitive envi-
ronment, management must deal with these risks effectively despite these
difficulties (Buchanan & O’Connell, 2006; Patil, Grantham, & Steele, 2012;
Shenhar, 2001; Shenhar, Milosevic, Dvir, & Thamhain, 2007; Srivannaboon &
Milosevic, 2006). This concerns executives, and it is not surprising that lead-
ers in virtually all organizations, from commerce to government, spend
much of their time and effort dealing with risk-related issues. Examples trace
back to ancient times that include huge infrastructure projects and military
campaigns. Writings by Sun Tzu articulated specific risks and suggested
mitigation methods 2,500 years ago (Hanzhang & Wilkinson, 1998). Risk
management is not a new idea. However, in today’s globally connected, fast-
changing business world with broad access to resources anywhere, and pres-
sures for quicker, cheaper, and smarter solutions, projects have become
highly complex and intricate. Many companies try to leverage their
resources and accelerate their schedules by forming alliances, consortia, and
partnerships with other firms, universities, and government agencies that
range from simple cooperative agreements to “open innovation,” a concept
of scouting for new product and service ideas anywhere in the world. In such
an increasingly complex and dynamic business environment, risks lurk in
many areas, not only associated with the technical part of the work, but also
including social, cultural, organizational, and technological dimensions. In
fact, research studies have suggested that much of the root cause of project-
related risks can be traced to the organizational dynamics and multidiscipli-
nary nature that characterizes today’s business environment, especially for
technology-based developments (R. Cooper, Edgett, & Kleinschmidt, 2001;
Torok, Nordman, & Lin, 2011). The involvement of many people, processes,
and technologies spanning different organizations, support groups, subcon-
tractors, vendors, government agencies, and customer communities com-
pounds the level of uncertainty and distributes risk over a wide area of the
enterprise and its partners (Thamhain, 2004; Thamhain & Wilemon, 1999),
often creating surprises with potentially devastating consequences. This
paradigm shift leads to changing criteria for risk management. To be effec-
tive in dealing with the broad spectrum of risk factors, project leaders must
go beyond the mechanics of analyzing the work a.
Minimization of Risks in Construction projectsIRJET Journal
This document discusses risk management in construction projects. It begins by defining risk and explaining the importance of risk management in development projects. It then reviews the results of a survey on risks affecting construction projects in India. The top three risks identified were financial issues, site accidents, and inadequate planning. The study found that contractors are typically responsible for risks occurring during project execution, like issues with subcontractors or quality, while clients are responsible for risks like financial issues or changes to specifications. The best preventative risk management strategies identified were thorough planning using past project data and experience. The best corrective strategies once risks occur were close monitoring and coordination of activities. The document concludes that thorough planning and strong coordination during implementation are key to better managing projects
A new conceptual framework to improve the application of occupational health...Diandra Rosari
This document presents a new conceptual framework for improving the application of occupational health and safety management systems (OHS MS) in organizations. The framework focuses on three key areas: 1) the people in the organization, 2) the physical workplace, and 3) management systems. By examining potential hazards that can arise within, between, and outside each of these three areas, a unique "hazard profile" can be determined for an organization. This hazard profile provides the foundation for a tailored OHS MS that effectively addresses the specific risks faced by that organization. The framework is intended to simplify OHS MS implementation and make the benefits more clear, especially for smaller businesses.
This document provides a summary of recent literature related to scheduling problems, with a focus on problems involving multiple parallel machines or devices. It discusses surveys and articles on scheduling problems in various contexts like industry, cloud/edge computing, and mobile networks. The document aims to give a comprehensive overview of the different approaches and algorithms used to address scheduling problems in emerging fields driven by technological progress, such as modern factories, mobile networks, cloud computing, and fog/edge computing. It observes that heuristics and approximate algorithms are increasingly important for scheduling problems due to the complexity introduced by uncertainties.
Explosion Damage and Injury Assessment Modeling: Balancing Model Sophisticati...BREEZE Software
This paper will present the technological foundations of the BREEZE Explosion Damage Assessment Model (ExDAM) which seeks to fill the "sophistication gap" between purely distance-based simple models and CFD tools.
In this paper, the Vapor Cloud Explosion Damage Assessment module in BREEZE ExDAM is used to demonstrate a high speed 3D modeling technique that can quickly generate 3D models of large-scale chemical/petroleum facilities, simulate the consequences of individual release scenarios, and compute the maximum consequence levels resulting from explosions at all identified congestion zones.
This document presents the final report of a research project on developing a tool for risk-based integrity assessment of process components. The report describes the development of a risk-based framework that includes methodologies for risk-based design, risk-based integrity modeling, and risk-based inspection and maintenance planning. Case studies were used to demonstrate the application of the developed methodologies and the results that can be obtained. The framework aims to help industry optimize asset integrity management and safety through risk-informed decision making.
This document presents a 7-stage framework for analyzing and improving near-miss management programs in the chemical process industry. Near-misses are unplanned incidents that do not result in injury or damage but have the potential to. The framework involves identifying near-misses, reporting them, analyzing causes, determining and disseminating solutions, and ensuring resolutions. Effective near-miss programs encourage employee involvement and can improve safety by addressing accident precursors before harm occurs.
Fuzzy Fatigue Failure Model to Estimate the Reliability of Extend the Service...IOSRJMCE
In this paper we use fuzzy set of methods to solve one of the important problems in mechanical engineering: Reliability of Extending the Service Life of Rolling Stock by using Fuzzy Fatigue failure model. The residual service life for rolling stock can be changed depending on its use conditions. This paper presents a new method depending on fuzzy set theory by using the fatigue stress mathematical model to determine the residual service for rolling stock with the value of risk of its use in future. The proposed method used solid works and (Ansys) abilities with especial Fuzzy logic programs in MATLAB.
An overarching process to evaluate risks associated with infrastructure netwo...Infra Risk
International Conference Analysis and Management of Changing Risks for Natural Hazards. November 18-19, 2014, Padua, Italy.
‘An overarching process to evaluate risks associated with infrastructure networks due to natural hazards’ (extended abstract)
Hackl, J., Adey, B.T., Heitzler, M., Iosifescu, I., Hurni, L.
A Synergistic Approach To Information Systems Project ManagementJoe Osborn
This document discusses synergism in information systems project management. It presents a model of group synergy in IS project management that considers both qualitative and quantitative factors. Qualitative factors include morale, supportiveness, participation, coordination, integration and commitment. Quantitative output includes a structured and on-task team with synchronized productivity. The model provides a framework to better understand how technical and organizational factors can facilitate or inhibit IS project success. It aims to bring qualitative and quantitative aspects of project management together in a complementary manner to help IS professionals improve systems development.
1Running Head RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN FOR BUILDING A BRIDGE16R.docxvickeryr87
1
Running Head: RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN FOR BUILDING A BRIDGE
16
RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN FOR BUILDING A BRIDGE
MPM344 Project Risk Management
Risk Management Plan
Charles Williams
12/03/18
Table of Contents
RISK MANAGEMENT JUSTIFICATION 3
PROJECT RISK IDENTIFICATION 4
PROJECT RISK ANALYSES 6
PROJECT RISK RESPONSE STRATEGY 11
PROJECT RISK MONITORING 14
PROJECT RISK COMMUNICATIONS PLAN 15
References 16
RISK MANAGEMENT JUSTIFICATION
With a large concern on the occurrence of the accidents due to the weaknesses in building it is important to conduct and write this risk management plan (Gerardus, 2018). On average, various accidents occur due to same failures in building or the construction. It is hence important to outline such failures occurring due to the ignorance of these subcontractors and contractors. The contractors and all persons in the construction of a public infrastructure needs to take some caution to save the lives of the people as well save their properties. The procedure hence needs to be outlined in developing options and actions to enhance the proper opportunities to evade any threats to the objectives.
In this project mitigation and contingency. This means that we try to eliminate or reduce any probability of occurrence of the peril. For contingency, we can try the best to find any other solutions to the peril (Gerardus, 2018). For my risk management plan the method I have chosen will be the waterfall risk management method. The waterfall risk management is most effective in traditional projects such as construction and other examples of more common engineering projects due to the uncomplicated nature of these projects.
PROJECT RISK IDENTIFICATION
There are several risks associated with the building of a bridge. From relatively small issues like severe weather, missed payments, or late deliveries to big problems like accidents on job sites or structural failures, people who do inspection, maintenance, and construction work on bridges face an extraordinary number of risks every day. Most contractors experience inconsistent cash flow at one time or another. Cash flow issues are not usually the result of ineffective money management. Instead, they’re caused by past due payments or not getting paid in full for work that’s been completed. This issue often leads to bankruptcy or the complete failure of the business. Workplace safety should be the number-one priority on every bridge construction site. Inadequate safety practices can lead to serious injuries or even death. Accidents on a job site can cause traffic and construction delays, along with added time to investigate and resolve issues, work stoppages, penalties and fees, increased insurance rates, low morale on the job, and significant harm to a contractor’s reputation. Every contractor tries to avoid it, but it inevitably happens: Work done on a bridge site doesn’t meet regulatory standards or contractual specifications. It costs time and money to.
This document summarizes a research study that assessed risk management practices in the logistics and construction industries regarding human safety. The study found that worker training was the most critical factor for improving safety based on a survey of employees. Ensuring safety compliance and adequate communication about safety procedures were also important. The study recommends that companies provide regular safety training and incentives, maintain accident records, and compensate workers for injuries to improve safety culture. Overall, the research indicates a relationship between worker safety initiatives like training and better safety management practices in these high-risk industries.
1. The document proposes an innovative approach to analyze quality and risks for any system using uniform mathematical models and software tools.
2. Currently, quality analysis and risk estimation are done mainly qualitatively without independent quantitative assessment. Admissible risks cannot be compared across different areas due to differing methodologies.
3. The proposed approach applies general properties of system processes over time to create universal models, approved through examples, to optimize quality and risks. This allows quantitative estimates of acceptable quality and admissible risk levels in a uniform interpretation.
The document discusses project management challenges, specifically related to changes, and how Fluor developed a system dynamics model-based "Change Impact Assessment" system to help address these challenges. Key points:
- Changes are a major cause of cost overruns and schedule delays on projects, but traditional change management systems ignore secondary impacts of changes.
- Fluor implemented a system dynamics model tailored for each project to analyze how changes could impact costs and schedules, and to test mitigation strategies.
- This "Change Impact Assessment" system has been used on over 100 Fluor projects globally, saving Fluor and its clients over $1.3 billion to date. The model and process have been successfully adopted within the organization.
A Method for Probabilistic Stability Analysis of Earth DamsIJERA Editor
This paper proposes a new probabilistic methodology for analyzing the stability of Earth Dams, based on the
technique of the First Order Reliability Method for Structural Reliability. Differently from others methodologies
present in literature, the proposed method interprets the involved variables as random ones. So, three results are
provided here: the Structural Reliability Index, the Probability of Rupture and the most probable values of the
random variables for the occurrence of a dam break. In order to illustrate it, real data from a cross section of the
Left Bank Earthfill Dam of Itaipu Hydroelectric Power Plant (IHPP), located on the city of Foz do Iguaçu,
Paraná, Brazil were used. The numerical results achieved by the proposed methodology evidence that IHPP dam
has currently good structural conditions, confirming that the safety procedures adopted in Itaipu Dam may be
considered as appropriate. The use of the proposed method enables to complement the previously existing
knowledge about the structural conditions, improving the process of risk management.
A Method for Probabilistic Stability Analysis of Earth DamsIJERA Editor
This paper proposes a new probabilistic methodology for analyzing the stability of Earth Dams, based on the
technique of the First Order Reliability Method for Structural Reliability. Differently from others methodologies
present in literature, the proposed method interprets the involved variables as random ones. So, three results are
provided here: the Structural Reliability Index, the Probability of Rupture and the most probable values of the
random variables for the occurrence of a dam break. In order to illustrate it, real data from a cross section of the
Left Bank Earthfill Dam of Itaipu Hydroelectric Power Plant (IHPP), located on the city of Foz do Iguaçu,
Paraná, Brazil were used. The numerical results achieved by the proposed methodology evidence that IHPP dam
has currently good structural conditions, confirming that the safety procedures adopted in Itaipu Dam may be
considered as appropriate. The use of the proposed method enables to complement the previously existing
knowledge about the structural conditions, improving the process of risk management.
Opportunities for learning fromcrises in projectsMarkus .docxcherishwinsland
Opportunities for learning from
crises in projects
Markus Hällgren and Timothy L. Wilson
Umeå School of Business, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
Abstract
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate how individuals in projects learn from crises.
Design/methodology/approach – The multiple-case protocol described by Yin and his six sources
of evidence were utilized. Observations were contemporaneous and somewhere between direct and
participative. Bias was avoided by having the observer on site, but not part of the project team. A diary
recorded events; company notes and records substantiated observations.
Findings – The study contributes to the understanding of the need that project managers have to
adapt to changes from plan and the coincidental learning that occurs in the workplace. Both cumulative
and abrupt crises treated by project/site teams and corporate staff are described. A necessary and
sufficiency approach was used to rationalize the organizational learning. The necessary condition was
that the episodes could be described in terms used by Gherardi in her treatment of routine learning. As a
sufficiency condition, the authors discussed the systemic approach in which these episodes are handled.
Research limitations/implications – Because research was built on case studies, one has the
reservations commonly associated with this approach. Extension from and agreement with previous
studies, however, lend to acceptance of the study.
Practical implications – Results suggest that crises can be managed in accordance with four general
responses associated with learning within the organization. The responses themselves are associated
with five organizational practices that aid management in general.
Originality/value – The value of the work is that it extends basic concepts of organizational learning
to treating crises in projects, which are both by definition unique.
Keywords Project management, Learning organizations
Paper type Research paper
Introduction
“A crisis is a terrible thing to waste”, a quote attributed to Vinod Khosia to Larry Page,
founders of Google (Vaitheeswaran, 2007). In this case, the quote was associated with
carmakers’ addiction to oil and the consequential warming of the planet. We, however,
tend to agree with the general premise. Implicit in this approach to crises is that each of
them carries with them an opportunity, specifically the opportunity to learn from them.
In a study of deviations from plans in projects (Hällgren, 2004, 2007, 2009), we have
noted that some of these deviations rise to the level of crises (Hällgren and Wilson, 2007,
2008a,b).Inthiscase,thespecialcaseofprojects,crisesaredefinedasthosedeviationsthat
interrupt progress along the critical path of the project so as to interfere with contractual
obligations in timing and/or costs. Deviations along sub-critical paths that make those
paths critical of course also become crises. Clearly, this topic is important for two reasons..
This document discusses transport resilience, which refers to the impact of and recovery from disruptions to transport systems. It examines challenges in understanding and improving resilience due to increasing complexity, uncertainty, and disruption probabilities in transport systems. The goal is to develop methods to resiliently design, plan and operate urban transport systems by applying principles like containment, adaptiveness and recourse. Experiments observe how behavior, coping strategies and system impacts vary greatly during disruptions. Tools are being developed for predictive modeling and real-time decision support to optimize multi-modal transport operations during disruptions. Trade-offs between efficiency and resilience must also be considered.
Time-cost-risk optimization in construction work by using ant colony algorithmVISHNU VIJAYAN
This document discusses using an ant colony optimization algorithm to optimize the time, cost, and risk of construction projects. It begins by explaining that time and cost are important factors for construction projects, and that considering risk is also important for meeting expectations. It then describes using an ant colony algorithm, which models the behavior of ant colonies, to evaluate different combinations of activity durations and resources to find a optimal balance between minimizing time, cost and risk. The document provides an example of applying this approach to a sample 7 activity construction project, evaluating various resource options and their associated time, costs and risks.
This document summarizes a research paper that formulates a two-stage stochastic integer program to optimally schedule jobs that require multiple classes of constrained resources under uncertain conditions. The formulation models uncertainty in processing times, due dates, resource consumption and availability. It allows temporary resource capacity expansion for a penalty cost. The authors develop an exact solution method using Benders decomposition for problems with a moderate number of scenarios, and also propose a sampling-based method for large-scale problems.
Large scale vc explosion consequence modeling final manuscriptBREEZE Software
In this paper, the Vapor Cloud Explosion Damage
Assessment (VExDAM) module in BREEZE ExDAM
is used to demonstrate a high speed 3D modeling
technique that can quickly:
1. Generate 3D models of large-scale chemical/
petroleum facilities with hundreds of building
structures, hundreds of release locations, and
hundreds of congestion zones
2. Simulate, display, and document the consequences
of individual release scenarios involving a subset
of congestion zones within a single plume geometry
3. Compute, display, and document the maximum
consequence levels resulting from explosions at all
identified congestion zones
This document provides an overview of Hazard and Operability Studies (HAZOP). It discusses the importance and methodology of HAZOP analysis, including forming a team, identifying system elements and parameters, considering deviations, and identifying hazards. Keywords such as "no", "less", and "more" are used to systematically analyze each part of a process. The document also briefly discusses applications of HAZOP for design, operational, and procedural assessments and compares it to other risk analysis tools. An example HAZOP study for an acetylene production industry is referenced.
USING ADAPTIVE MODELING TO VALIDATE CREJames Rollins
This document summarizes a simulation study that used the Emergency and Disaster Management Simulation (EDMSIM) to model the response to an improvised nuclear detonation in a major metropolitan area and validate the capacity and capabilities of the Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear (CBRN) Response Enterprise (CRE). The simulation was conducted by the CRE Adaptive Modeling Laboratory jointly organized by the National Guard Bureau and US Northern Command. The simulation incorporated multi-agency collaboration and decision making, and sought to identify resource gaps and needs over time as the disaster response unfolded. The study concluded the simulation provided a plausible trajectory to evaluate CRE's contribution to lifesaving operations.
1 This document was originally created on 26th May 2009 .docxkarisariddell
1
This document was originally created on 26th May 2009 and was last updated on 22
nd
September 2015. The author of this material is Peter
McSweeney and copyright is held by The University of Melbourne
Week 9 Project risk management
“Selecting the right project is business risk. Managing uncertainty to meet the stakeholders’
objectives is project risk.” (Verzuh, p.82)
The focus of the final week is to consider some of the underlying risk management processes
that can be applied toward the management of the project itself; and which the above quote
suggests are not germane to the choice of project. The focus of risk management in the PM
context is to ensure that the envisaged cost, schedule and quality are achieved. Again, a focus
on the triangle! Risk management in the PM sense would seek to:
- identify any risks
- assess their significance
- manage or respond to them.
Most of the significant risks (constraints) would be picked up in the initial project definition
phase. Given that most projects are defined under conditions of imperfect information and
subject to changing circumstances, it would be expected that the identification, assessment
and response cycle would be repeated throughout the life of the project. The model (Fig. 1) in
Verzuh (1999) suggests that the first pass or iteration picks up the big risks, and the
subsequent iterations identify those that emerge later. Dobie (2007) similarly outlines the risk
management process.
Figure 1 The risk management process (Source Verzuh E (1999) The fast forward MBA in
Project Management, John Wiley, Brisbane, p.81)
Risk Identification
Analyse the project to
identify sources of risk
Response Development
Define the risk,
including the potential
negative impact
Assign a probability to
the risk
Develop a strategy to
reduce the possible
damage
New risks
Control
Implement the risk
strategy
Continue to monitor the
project for new risks
New risks
Known risks
Risk management plan
2
This document was originally created on 26th May 2009 and was last updated on 22
nd
September 2015. The author of this material is Peter
McSweeney and copyright is held by The University of Melbourne
Applying organisational risk management models and defining risk
Most of you will have had experience of using a framework for risk management i.e. risk
identification, assessment, response and management. Risk management systems tend to
incorporate comprehensive risk registers for organisational activities which then drill down
into the management plan associated with each risk.
Project risks can be assessed as part of the broader organisational approach that already exists.
The PMBOK (p.238) defines project risk “as an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs,
has a positive or negative effect on at least one project objective, such as time, cost, scope, o.
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1Running Head RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN FOR BUILDING A BRIDGE16R.docxvickeryr87
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Running Head: RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN FOR BUILDING A BRIDGE
16
RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN FOR BUILDING A BRIDGE
MPM344 Project Risk Management
Risk Management Plan
Charles Williams
12/03/18
Table of Contents
RISK MANAGEMENT JUSTIFICATION 3
PROJECT RISK IDENTIFICATION 4
PROJECT RISK ANALYSES 6
PROJECT RISK RESPONSE STRATEGY 11
PROJECT RISK MONITORING 14
PROJECT RISK COMMUNICATIONS PLAN 15
References 16
RISK MANAGEMENT JUSTIFICATION
With a large concern on the occurrence of the accidents due to the weaknesses in building it is important to conduct and write this risk management plan (Gerardus, 2018). On average, various accidents occur due to same failures in building or the construction. It is hence important to outline such failures occurring due to the ignorance of these subcontractors and contractors. The contractors and all persons in the construction of a public infrastructure needs to take some caution to save the lives of the people as well save their properties. The procedure hence needs to be outlined in developing options and actions to enhance the proper opportunities to evade any threats to the objectives.
In this project mitigation and contingency. This means that we try to eliminate or reduce any probability of occurrence of the peril. For contingency, we can try the best to find any other solutions to the peril (Gerardus, 2018). For my risk management plan the method I have chosen will be the waterfall risk management method. The waterfall risk management is most effective in traditional projects such as construction and other examples of more common engineering projects due to the uncomplicated nature of these projects.
PROJECT RISK IDENTIFICATION
There are several risks associated with the building of a bridge. From relatively small issues like severe weather, missed payments, or late deliveries to big problems like accidents on job sites or structural failures, people who do inspection, maintenance, and construction work on bridges face an extraordinary number of risks every day. Most contractors experience inconsistent cash flow at one time or another. Cash flow issues are not usually the result of ineffective money management. Instead, they’re caused by past due payments or not getting paid in full for work that’s been completed. This issue often leads to bankruptcy or the complete failure of the business. Workplace safety should be the number-one priority on every bridge construction site. Inadequate safety practices can lead to serious injuries or even death. Accidents on a job site can cause traffic and construction delays, along with added time to investigate and resolve issues, work stoppages, penalties and fees, increased insurance rates, low morale on the job, and significant harm to a contractor’s reputation. Every contractor tries to avoid it, but it inevitably happens: Work done on a bridge site doesn’t meet regulatory standards or contractual specifications. It costs time and money to.
This document summarizes a research study that assessed risk management practices in the logistics and construction industries regarding human safety. The study found that worker training was the most critical factor for improving safety based on a survey of employees. Ensuring safety compliance and adequate communication about safety procedures were also important. The study recommends that companies provide regular safety training and incentives, maintain accident records, and compensate workers for injuries to improve safety culture. Overall, the research indicates a relationship between worker safety initiatives like training and better safety management practices in these high-risk industries.
1. The document proposes an innovative approach to analyze quality and risks for any system using uniform mathematical models and software tools.
2. Currently, quality analysis and risk estimation are done mainly qualitatively without independent quantitative assessment. Admissible risks cannot be compared across different areas due to differing methodologies.
3. The proposed approach applies general properties of system processes over time to create universal models, approved through examples, to optimize quality and risks. This allows quantitative estimates of acceptable quality and admissible risk levels in a uniform interpretation.
The document discusses project management challenges, specifically related to changes, and how Fluor developed a system dynamics model-based "Change Impact Assessment" system to help address these challenges. Key points:
- Changes are a major cause of cost overruns and schedule delays on projects, but traditional change management systems ignore secondary impacts of changes.
- Fluor implemented a system dynamics model tailored for each project to analyze how changes could impact costs and schedules, and to test mitigation strategies.
- This "Change Impact Assessment" system has been used on over 100 Fluor projects globally, saving Fluor and its clients over $1.3 billion to date. The model and process have been successfully adopted within the organization.
A Method for Probabilistic Stability Analysis of Earth DamsIJERA Editor
This paper proposes a new probabilistic methodology for analyzing the stability of Earth Dams, based on the
technique of the First Order Reliability Method for Structural Reliability. Differently from others methodologies
present in literature, the proposed method interprets the involved variables as random ones. So, three results are
provided here: the Structural Reliability Index, the Probability of Rupture and the most probable values of the
random variables for the occurrence of a dam break. In order to illustrate it, real data from a cross section of the
Left Bank Earthfill Dam of Itaipu Hydroelectric Power Plant (IHPP), located on the city of Foz do Iguaçu,
Paraná, Brazil were used. The numerical results achieved by the proposed methodology evidence that IHPP dam
has currently good structural conditions, confirming that the safety procedures adopted in Itaipu Dam may be
considered as appropriate. The use of the proposed method enables to complement the previously existing
knowledge about the structural conditions, improving the process of risk management.
A Method for Probabilistic Stability Analysis of Earth DamsIJERA Editor
This paper proposes a new probabilistic methodology for analyzing the stability of Earth Dams, based on the
technique of the First Order Reliability Method for Structural Reliability. Differently from others methodologies
present in literature, the proposed method interprets the involved variables as random ones. So, three results are
provided here: the Structural Reliability Index, the Probability of Rupture and the most probable values of the
random variables for the occurrence of a dam break. In order to illustrate it, real data from a cross section of the
Left Bank Earthfill Dam of Itaipu Hydroelectric Power Plant (IHPP), located on the city of Foz do Iguaçu,
Paraná, Brazil were used. The numerical results achieved by the proposed methodology evidence that IHPP dam
has currently good structural conditions, confirming that the safety procedures adopted in Itaipu Dam may be
considered as appropriate. The use of the proposed method enables to complement the previously existing
knowledge about the structural conditions, improving the process of risk management.
Opportunities for learning fromcrises in projectsMarkus .docxcherishwinsland
Opportunities for learning from
crises in projects
Markus Hällgren and Timothy L. Wilson
Umeå School of Business, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
Abstract
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate how individuals in projects learn from crises.
Design/methodology/approach – The multiple-case protocol described by Yin and his six sources
of evidence were utilized. Observations were contemporaneous and somewhere between direct and
participative. Bias was avoided by having the observer on site, but not part of the project team. A diary
recorded events; company notes and records substantiated observations.
Findings – The study contributes to the understanding of the need that project managers have to
adapt to changes from plan and the coincidental learning that occurs in the workplace. Both cumulative
and abrupt crises treated by project/site teams and corporate staff are described. A necessary and
sufficiency approach was used to rationalize the organizational learning. The necessary condition was
that the episodes could be described in terms used by Gherardi in her treatment of routine learning. As a
sufficiency condition, the authors discussed the systemic approach in which these episodes are handled.
Research limitations/implications – Because research was built on case studies, one has the
reservations commonly associated with this approach. Extension from and agreement with previous
studies, however, lend to acceptance of the study.
Practical implications – Results suggest that crises can be managed in accordance with four general
responses associated with learning within the organization. The responses themselves are associated
with five organizational practices that aid management in general.
Originality/value – The value of the work is that it extends basic concepts of organizational learning
to treating crises in projects, which are both by definition unique.
Keywords Project management, Learning organizations
Paper type Research paper
Introduction
“A crisis is a terrible thing to waste”, a quote attributed to Vinod Khosia to Larry Page,
founders of Google (Vaitheeswaran, 2007). In this case, the quote was associated with
carmakers’ addiction to oil and the consequential warming of the planet. We, however,
tend to agree with the general premise. Implicit in this approach to crises is that each of
them carries with them an opportunity, specifically the opportunity to learn from them.
In a study of deviations from plans in projects (Hällgren, 2004, 2007, 2009), we have
noted that some of these deviations rise to the level of crises (Hällgren and Wilson, 2007,
2008a,b).Inthiscase,thespecialcaseofprojects,crisesaredefinedasthosedeviationsthat
interrupt progress along the critical path of the project so as to interfere with contractual
obligations in timing and/or costs. Deviations along sub-critical paths that make those
paths critical of course also become crises. Clearly, this topic is important for two reasons..
This document discusses transport resilience, which refers to the impact of and recovery from disruptions to transport systems. It examines challenges in understanding and improving resilience due to increasing complexity, uncertainty, and disruption probabilities in transport systems. The goal is to develop methods to resiliently design, plan and operate urban transport systems by applying principles like containment, adaptiveness and recourse. Experiments observe how behavior, coping strategies and system impacts vary greatly during disruptions. Tools are being developed for predictive modeling and real-time decision support to optimize multi-modal transport operations during disruptions. Trade-offs between efficiency and resilience must also be considered.
Time-cost-risk optimization in construction work by using ant colony algorithmVISHNU VIJAYAN
This document discusses using an ant colony optimization algorithm to optimize the time, cost, and risk of construction projects. It begins by explaining that time and cost are important factors for construction projects, and that considering risk is also important for meeting expectations. It then describes using an ant colony algorithm, which models the behavior of ant colonies, to evaluate different combinations of activity durations and resources to find a optimal balance between minimizing time, cost and risk. The document provides an example of applying this approach to a sample 7 activity construction project, evaluating various resource options and their associated time, costs and risks.
This document summarizes a research paper that formulates a two-stage stochastic integer program to optimally schedule jobs that require multiple classes of constrained resources under uncertain conditions. The formulation models uncertainty in processing times, due dates, resource consumption and availability. It allows temporary resource capacity expansion for a penalty cost. The authors develop an exact solution method using Benders decomposition for problems with a moderate number of scenarios, and also propose a sampling-based method for large-scale problems.
Large scale vc explosion consequence modeling final manuscriptBREEZE Software
In this paper, the Vapor Cloud Explosion Damage
Assessment (VExDAM) module in BREEZE ExDAM
is used to demonstrate a high speed 3D modeling
technique that can quickly:
1. Generate 3D models of large-scale chemical/
petroleum facilities with hundreds of building
structures, hundreds of release locations, and
hundreds of congestion zones
2. Simulate, display, and document the consequences
of individual release scenarios involving a subset
of congestion zones within a single plume geometry
3. Compute, display, and document the maximum
consequence levels resulting from explosions at all
identified congestion zones
This document provides an overview of Hazard and Operability Studies (HAZOP). It discusses the importance and methodology of HAZOP analysis, including forming a team, identifying system elements and parameters, considering deviations, and identifying hazards. Keywords such as "no", "less", and "more" are used to systematically analyze each part of a process. The document also briefly discusses applications of HAZOP for design, operational, and procedural assessments and compares it to other risk analysis tools. An example HAZOP study for an acetylene production industry is referenced.
USING ADAPTIVE MODELING TO VALIDATE CREJames Rollins
This document summarizes a simulation study that used the Emergency and Disaster Management Simulation (EDMSIM) to model the response to an improvised nuclear detonation in a major metropolitan area and validate the capacity and capabilities of the Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear (CBRN) Response Enterprise (CRE). The simulation was conducted by the CRE Adaptive Modeling Laboratory jointly organized by the National Guard Bureau and US Northern Command. The simulation incorporated multi-agency collaboration and decision making, and sought to identify resource gaps and needs over time as the disaster response unfolded. The study concluded the simulation provided a plausible trajectory to evaluate CRE's contribution to lifesaving operations.
1 This document was originally created on 26th May 2009 .docxkarisariddell
1
This document was originally created on 26th May 2009 and was last updated on 22
nd
September 2015. The author of this material is Peter
McSweeney and copyright is held by The University of Melbourne
Week 9 Project risk management
“Selecting the right project is business risk. Managing uncertainty to meet the stakeholders’
objectives is project risk.” (Verzuh, p.82)
The focus of the final week is to consider some of the underlying risk management processes
that can be applied toward the management of the project itself; and which the above quote
suggests are not germane to the choice of project. The focus of risk management in the PM
context is to ensure that the envisaged cost, schedule and quality are achieved. Again, a focus
on the triangle! Risk management in the PM sense would seek to:
- identify any risks
- assess their significance
- manage or respond to them.
Most of the significant risks (constraints) would be picked up in the initial project definition
phase. Given that most projects are defined under conditions of imperfect information and
subject to changing circumstances, it would be expected that the identification, assessment
and response cycle would be repeated throughout the life of the project. The model (Fig. 1) in
Verzuh (1999) suggests that the first pass or iteration picks up the big risks, and the
subsequent iterations identify those that emerge later. Dobie (2007) similarly outlines the risk
management process.
Figure 1 The risk management process (Source Verzuh E (1999) The fast forward MBA in
Project Management, John Wiley, Brisbane, p.81)
Risk Identification
Analyse the project to
identify sources of risk
Response Development
Define the risk,
including the potential
negative impact
Assign a probability to
the risk
Develop a strategy to
reduce the possible
damage
New risks
Control
Implement the risk
strategy
Continue to monitor the
project for new risks
New risks
Known risks
Risk management plan
2
This document was originally created on 26th May 2009 and was last updated on 22
nd
September 2015. The author of this material is Peter
McSweeney and copyright is held by The University of Melbourne
Applying organisational risk management models and defining risk
Most of you will have had experience of using a framework for risk management i.e. risk
identification, assessment, response and management. Risk management systems tend to
incorporate comprehensive risk registers for organisational activities which then drill down
into the management plan associated with each risk.
Project risks can be assessed as part of the broader organisational approach that already exists.
The PMBOK (p.238) defines project risk “as an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs,
has a positive or negative effect on at least one project objective, such as time, cost, scope, o.
Similar to Managing Risk Dormancy in MultiTeam Work Application of Time Dependent Success and Safety Assurance Methodology (20)
1 This document was originally created on 26th May 2009 .docx
Managing Risk Dormancy in MultiTeam Work Application of Time Dependent Success and Safety Assurance Methodology
1. Managing Risk Dormancy in Multi-Team Work: Application of
Time-Dependent Success-and-Safety Assurance Methodology
Farag Emad, Ingman Dov, Suhir Ephraim
E-mail:uj326@iec.co.il; Tel:972-52-3995774 ; Fax: 972-4-8183683
Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management, Technion – Israel Institute of
Technology, Haifa 32000, Israel
Abstract
The success and safety of many to-day’s industrial activities, such as, e.g., constructing power
plants, transmission lines, and civil engineering objects, is often influenced by situations, when
successful and safe work completion is associated with the implementation of various more or less
complex multi-team layouts. Multi-team effort is characterized by the presence and interaction of
numerous, not necessarily concurrent time-and-space constrained interfering activities, as well as
by dormant risks. Such risks might threaten the fulfillment of the general task carried out by the
main team and/or by other teams on the construction site. This analysis addresses the role of the
dormant risks during the fulfillment of a non-simultaneous multi-team work. The objective of the
analysis is to suggest an effective and physically meaningful probabilistic predictive model. The
model is aimed at the understanding, quantification and effective managing the dynamics of the
system of interest. The emphasis is on the role of possible dormancies. The study is an extension
of the authors' earlier research on spatial and time dimensions in the addressed problem. The study
extends the risk management approach to a holistic level.
1.Introduction
Modern infrastructure and industrial activities are typically executed by several different on-site
teams: Sasoua, K., and Reason, J., (1999) "most human work is performed by teams rather than
by individuals". Each team performs distinct and designated activities over time. At the same
time the today’s technologies require better understanding and increasingly higher quality than
in the past. Sophisticated work methods, tools, and equipment have been developed for, and
became available to, the workers in multi-team systems. Such methods are crucial to achieve the
optimum and safe outcome of a particular project. Tight schedules are implemented today to
meet customers' requirements, and to ensure the demands for increased productivity. This
imposes additional pressure on workers. Handling of hazardous materials and energy sources,
such as electricity or radiation, requires the use of highly qualified labor, as well as customized
2. safety procedures and equipment. Dynamic physical conditions, such as noise, vibrations and
working at heights, contribute also to the likelihood of hazardous situations.
Teams often operate independently, with no explicit functional linkage between them. In other
cases, more or less close professional collaboration is required to perform a particular task. For
example, repair work in an electrical utility typically requires involvement of several teams.
One team of electricians disconnects the power, another team repairs the damage, and a third
team is deployed outside the secluded site, often on a standby basis, to assist, if necessary, the
workers inside the worksite. In this example three different teams perform various aspects of the
work aimed at a particular mutual goal. A mistake, error or a failure in one team's actions
affects other teams involved in sequential large-scale activity, and has a potential to create a
hazard. The hazard might remain dormant for some time, but eventually can become or generate
a risk. This risk might have an immediate impact on the team member who caused it, and/or
threaten another team continuing the job at the given site. This scenario can be identified as risk
dormancy (RD). When occurring in a multi-team situation, it becomes a multi-team risk
dormancy (MTRD). It is this type of risk dormancy that is the main concern and the main
subject of this analysis.
Several researchers have addressed the MTRD lately. Mitropoulos, P., Howell, G. A., and
Abdelhamid, S.T., (2005) stated that “errors by one crew may create unpredictable conditions
for a following crew” and suggested that "future research should focus on better understanding
the effect of task unpredictability and on developing error management strategies". Reason,
J.T., (2000) wrote: “Different actors’ decisions and actions can produce latent conditions or
pathogens in a system. These might lie dormant for a time until they combine with local
circumstances and active failure and penetrate the system's many layers of defenses, and an
accident occurs.” Despite the recognized importance of the MTRD, there are no studies that
suggest effective solutions to the MTRD problems.
The existing studies suggesting various safety models employ quite a few of diverse
approaches. Some models focus on actions or processes and examine the time and space of the
occurred accidents that led to personal injury or to damage to some assets. These are s.c. active
failures. Other models are system oriented, such, e.g., organization models related to the
management policy, actions and decision making Rasmussen, J., Pejtersen, A. M., and
Goodstein, L. P. p-149 (1994). Reason, J.T., (1997), Interdisciplinary models La Coze, J.,
(2005) "focus on cause-effect relationships close in time and space to the accident sequences".
Akinci, B., Fischen M., Levitt R.; and Carlson R., (2002) examined the time-space management
3. aspect of accident prevention. He indicated that "lack of management of activity space
requirements during planning and scheduling results in time-space conflicts in which an
activity’s space requirements interfere with another activity’s space requirements or work-in-
place." Rosenfeld, Y., Rozenfeld, O., Sacks, R., and Baum, H., (2006). Rozenfeld, O., Sacks,
R., and Rosenfeld, Y., (2009) addressed this situation by expanding the safety model to MT
problems that involve mutual risk exposure of two or more teams sharing the same time–space
domain.
In the analysis that follows a rather general holistic approach is used to address dormant risks
encountered during consecutive MT work activities. This approach treats the problems of
interest from a rather general point of view, regardless of a specific nature of a particular risk or
a possible outcome. Our approach provides a probabilistic assessment of the management's
dynamic response at the organizational level. Here are several typical examples.
Example 1: A scaffold is required for certain tasks performed on a public utility construction
site by teams working at heights, such as, say, plasterers and painters Figure (1).
Scaffold builder team
Figure 1a Prior of lean scheduling
Figure 1(b) Lean Scheduling Time-Space Dependent Model (Rozenfeld, 2009)
Project Schedule
Project Schedule
Plumber
Bricklayer team,
Plasterer team
team
Plumber
Scaffold builder team
Bricklayer team,
Plasterer team
Figure 1 Illustration of the scaffold example
Painter team
Painter team
4. A scaffold building team erects the scaffold, while a plumbing team is scheduled to
subsequently lay sewer pipes. In the meantime the scaffold is being used by other teams. In
such a situation, the time-space sharing is implemented as illustrated in Figure (1a). In the
safety assessment of the project in question risk exposure in team activities performed with
time-space overlapping is not considered. All the teams—the plasterers, the painters and the
plumbers—worked on the site simultaneously. The Lean Scheduling Time and Space
Dependent Model Rozenfeld, O., Sacks, R., and Rosenfeld, Y., (2009) illustrate the time
segregation.
This means that the plumbing team's work is rescheduled to avoid the risk of dealing with
falling objects or tools from the plastering or bricklaying teams. In space segregation, on the
other hand, the plumbers would be assigned to work at the other side of the site, where no teams
would be working above them. The risk posed by the scaffolding team is eliminated, as
illustrated in Figure (1b). The planner's instructions indicate, however, that the plumbing team
must lay the pipes in trenches at the foot of the building, where the scaffold is assembled.
Although the plastering team could be temporarily repositioned and the excavation could be
rescheduled, this still might destabilize the scaffold and increase the probability of its collapse
at a later time Figure (2). Rozenfeld's time-space dependent model does not address this aspect
of scaffold destabilization risk. The risk leads to an additional risk, namely, to the risk
dormancy. In this example, other scaffold users, such as the painting team, are exposed to an
underestimated risk, which, however, has been identified beforehand. This example illustrates
the risk dormancy (RD) phenomenon, i.e., a risk that is dormant, while awaiting for other teams
Figure 2 RD Exposure in MT Example- Risk of Scaffold Collapse, threat to painter team
Project schedule
Excavation for sewer
Plastering team
Scaffold building Painting
team
Underestimation of the identified RD in MT work
or misidentification of RD
5. that might use the hazardous scaffold. Fig. 2 emphasizes the progress that could be achieved by
developing tools and methods to deal with such underestimated or misidentified risks that stem
from the dynamic changing of the site (in this case, the excavation).
Example 2: Power grid works are inherently created serially. A utility lineman team replaces an
insulator on a high-voltage power line after obtaining permission from the responsible
electrician. The electrician operates according to a written checklist issued by the engineering
department. The professional teams work in a serial manner with respect to both time and space:
first, the engineering department writes the instruction checklist; then the responsible electrician
shuts down the power at a circuit box mounted near the work site (along the power line) and
linemen replace the insulator further down the line (not even necessarily at the same site). In
such situations several teams are active at the site, and communication and coordination of their
interactions might be quite complex. Any error in these activities could create RD, thereby
increasing the likelihood of an electrical shock accident. Examples of this type of error are
failure to check for current, misidentification of the appropriate line connector, and/or the
specification of the wrong transformer or pole number.
The above examples (scaffold collapse or electrician's error) represent dormant risks caused by
MT activities that have no time or space overlapping. This means that accidents caused by the
MTRD activities regardless of their simultaneity and space have not been addressed. MT
activities create dynamic work sites (environments) with constant changes depending on the
needs for the complex system, in/for which the work is being performed. Such complex
systems require a tight control, i.e., appropriate risk management, which should be the main
component of a safety management system (SMS).
The term “risk management” includes the notion of mitigating risks to an adequate and
achievable level acceptable by the organization. This can be done by the application of two
major methods:
1) Appropriate and effective risk control and
2) The use of the most suitable accident causation models.
The obvious challenge in the assurance of the occupational safety is the development of the
ability to effectively control problematic situations, identify hazards and assess and control
risks. The actual down-to-earth and practical on-site work is more complicated, however, than
the models that attempt to predict and simulate the effort. Proactive approaches, such as risk
assessment and control, can never be entirely accurate, complete, and successful when applied
6. alone. Reason, J.T., (2000) "Effective risk management depends crucially on establishing a
reporting culture. Without a detailed analysis of mishaps, incidents, near misses, and 'free
lessons,' we have no way of uncovering recurrent error traps or of knowing where the edge is
until we fall over it". Risk management should be therefore implemented both proactively and
reactively, and its complete success necessitates reactive approaches such as accident
investigation/causation. A description of the process of investigating accidents in the context of
the concept presented in this paper, namely, the underlying cause - risk dormancy (RD), is set
forth below.
The general strategy of pursuing risk management approach in the problem in question includes
the following major items:
Hazard identification: Before quantifying the probability of failure, hazards related to the
system operation must be identified. Several identification techniques are available Carter, G.,
and Smith, S., some of which are based on brainstorming among people familiar with the
installations at a work site, while other techniques are of a more systematic nature. According to
Cuny, X., and Lejeune, M. (2003), recognizing hazards can be a rather complicated task. Many
different kinds of uncertainty factors contribute to the challenge of recognizing hazards and a
clear-cut determination of the source and level of the risk for each hazard is next-to-impossible.
Furthermore, many observations are needed to accurately estimate the likelihood of an accident,
particularly, if it is of rare occurrence. One of the paradigms in the Accident Root Causes
Tracing Model Abdelhamid, S. T., and Everett, J. G. (2000) reveals that workers, more often
than not, fail to identify hazardous situations. This leads to the conclusion that the hazard
identification process only partially covers the hazards that should be identified on site. Multi-
team hazards (MTH) are even more difficult to identify.
Risk assessment: Hazards become a problem only when they could possibly result in an
accident whose occurrence is preceded by a sequence of events that may cause a hazardous
situation. After a hazard is identified, all possible sequences of events that can be triggered by
that hazard must be studied and checked to determine whether or not they might lead to an
accident. With the relevant scenarios in hand, it is possible to calculate the two elements of a
risk: the probability of the events occurring, and their consequences. Reason, J.T., (1997)
presents three models for safety management: the Pearson model, the Engineering model, and
the Organizational model. Each of these models has a different perspective on human error.
“Workplaces and organizations are easier to manage than the minds of individual workers. You
cannot change the human condition, but you can change the conditions under which people
7. work. In short, the solutions to most human performance problems are technical rather than
psychological.” This concept can be better understood by considering the work of Papadopoulos
et al., who concluded that "risk assessment must be conducted for each task and for each
worker. This risk assessment must consider all hazards and their interactions and must be
revised when changes occur". In addition they wrote: "However, frequent changes regarding
workforce, working hours and working conditions, as well as time pressure, result in
insufficient time for conducting a complete and effective risk assessment, determining training
needs, setting up, applying and monitoring the corresponding OSH measures. Furthermore, the
methodological tools used in risk assessment up to now are not sufficient for this complex
situation". In an earlier paper on this subject, Drivas and Papadopoulos (2004) pointed that risk
assessment need to be considering all hazards and their collaborations and must be reviewed
when changes occur. Risk assessment will be even more difficult to identify for risks arising
from MT work, which is characterized by difficulty in identifying or the lack of the researcher
capacity to evaluate risks.
Risk control: Risk management is basically a control problem Rasmussen, J., and Svedung, I.,
(2000). The review focuses on the most suitable methods of risk control:
)a) Control Hierarchy is achieved by applying four main levels of action: 1) the hazard is
eliminated; 2) a physical barrier is erected between the hazard and the performer (worker); 3)
personal protective equipment is used; and 4) workers comply with written safety instructions.
)b) Root Cause Analysis addresses accident causation according to four basic categories:
management factors (safety and risk control), intermediate factors (procedures, work design,
training), performance (behavioral and technical) factors, and external (environmental) factors.
)c) Griffel, A. (1999), Comparative Analysis consists of measurements for risk prevention
using the following four dimensions: effectiveness, applicability, efficiency, and influence.
Moreover, since most serious accidents are apparently caused by the operation of hazardous
systems outside the design envelope, the basic challenge in the development of improved risk
management strategies is essentially to ensure improved interaction between the decision
making and planning strategies at the various levels of the organization Rasmussen, J., and
Svedung, I., (2000).
Thus, despite the currently implemented risk management strategy, the control of MTRD
appears to be unsolved yet.
8. Accident causation: Accident investigation/causation analyses enable one to better understand
the factors and processes leading to accidents. Our analysis that follows explores further
accident causation or aggravating factors, i.e., risk dormancy in multi-team work.
This paper's primary objective is to develop a holistic safety model, in which both management
and labor respond to various dormant MT risk situations. Management is responsible for
making decisions concerning the handling of such risks and accident causation in accordance
with a SMS. Disorder might result in a potential for unsafe actions. Such actions are
characterized by the following major attributes:
Deviation of a process from its planned time schedule, requiring corrective action to
remove the source of nonconformity in order to prevent recurrence. The corrective
action is aimed at ensuring that the existing potentially hazardous situations do not
lead to accidents.
Time lags in the sequenced work of the various teams that require communication and
mutual reporting.
Continuing random changes to the physical sites, thereby necessitating continuous risk
assessment.
Uncontrolled multiple degrees of freedom, instead of a tight and narrow path to a
successful outcome.
The lack of quality methodology principles being applied to monitor safe performance,
so as to reduce or even prevent accidents, especially those with casualties.
These attributes can create hazards that might be difficult to identify properly.
Two major problems with MT risk management have been identified:
(1) RD identified in MT work is often underestimated. For example, after excavating
trenches intended for power or communication lines or for drainage pits, the installation of the
cables of pipes is often delayed and the trenches and pits are marked using yellow caution tape
only. Despite the identification of an open trench or a pit as a hazard, such trenches and pits are
sometimes left open for days and even weeks, constituting a threat to other teams working at the
site.
(2) The potential threat of risk situations in an MT work is often misidentified. This leads
to a dynamic risk situation. For example, a maintenance technician places a rag on the floor to
9. absorb the condensation from a faulty office air conditioner and leaves to get his tools. A
secretary inadvertently steps on the wet rag, slips and falls, and injures her ankle.
The analysis that follows addresses the occupational accident data of the integrated electrical
public utility (PU) in the State of Israel between 2004 and 2011. As of 2011, the PU company
employed 12,687 workers and maintained and operated several power station sites with an
aggregate installed generating capacity of 13,133 MW, supplied to customers via a national grid
transmission and distribution (T&D) system. The following segmentation of the employee
roster into five operational divisions reflects the company’s main areas of activity relevant to
this study.
The works and expertise of the first and the second divisions, the North and South District ones,
are the T&D of electrical power. The third division is engaged in building power plants and
substations. The fourth division is in charge of logistics, and provides transportation services,
cranes, heavy vehicles and workshop works to the other divisions. The fifth division is the
Generation Division, which operates the power stations. The number of the employees in these
five divisions is shown in Table 1.
Table 1 Number of employees by division
Division
North
District
South
District Logistic Generation Construction
Number of
employees 800 1300 700 2100 1700
10. The reported accidents of five PU’s divisions during 2004-2011 were compiled by its safety
department. The data presented in this paper were collected in accordance with the Israel
Institute for Occupational Safety and Hygiene (IIOSH) classification system. Each of the
accidents was examined to determine its causation in the context of the RD in MT work. The
results were subdivided into categories using two main factors: risk dormancy (RD) and non-
risk dormancy (NRD). The criteria described in section 1.3 were applied. The results, as they
N.MTRD.A - Non MTRD Accidents
MTRD.A - MTRD Accidents
Table 2 RD and Non- RD accidents in MT work
relate to the above five PU divisions, are shown in Table 2. These results reveal as much as
9.85% RD related accident rate for all the accidents.
2. Analyses
2.1 Risk dormancy analysis
2.1.1 Multi-team risk dormancy
Risk dormancy is the time delay between the occurrence of a failure (hazard event) in the
action of one team (Team A) that affects another team (Team B) involved in the process (Fig.3).
Such a failure has the potential to produce a hazard that is underestimated or undetected by
Team B and eventually becomes or generates a risk that lies dormant for a period of time (risk
dormancy). This risk has no immediate effect on the Team A member who caused it, but might
be a threat to another team (referred to as Team B) that will later continue the same job or will
Division
North
District
South
District Logistic Generation Construction
N.MTRD.A 783 860 474 1391 715
MTRD.A. 45 81 64 134 133
TOTAL 828 941 538 1525 848
%
MTRD.A 5.4 % 8.6 % 11.9 % 8.78 %
9.85 %
11. be engaged in a different job at the site. This situation is referred to as risk dormancy in MT
work.
An analysis of the RD time path reveals the following stages leading to an accident (Fig.3):
T0 - Beginning of Team A activity that could possibly generate a hazard event that
becomes a risk and could threaten the Team B work
TR- Hazard event time
Td- Risk dormancy time, which is equal to the time interval from the hazard event caused
by the Team A activity until the accident occurs, injuring the next team. The time is estimated
by the professional safety officer teams, based on their experience and knowledge.
Tacc - The time the accident occurred.
This paper addresses the time aspects of RD in MT work and proposes a model for risk
evaluation and management based on time-dependent probability (TDP) methodology. In this
context, classification criteria for RD are related to risks generated by MT activities.
2.1.2 Probabilistic analysis of risk dormancy time
The analysis of RD in MT work requires collecting information regarding an accident and
establishing the sequence of events that led to the accident. This includes identifying the team
affected by the accident and the accident occurrence time, as well as the team that most
probably generated the risk that ultimately materialized (risk-causing team) and the time when
Beginning of activity that most
likely generated a hazard event that
constitutes a risk for Team B
Risk dormancy time
Figure 3 MT risk dormancy pathway
Team A: hazard
Team activities
Team B: underestimates/fails to detect
hazard created by Team A
Team's "A" Hazard
Hazard event
Accident
Time
12. the risk was actually generated. The affected team and the time, Tacc, of accident occurrence are
easily determined in most cases since accidents are usually investigated and documented. It is,
however, often quite difficult to identify the risk-causing team and determine the time at which
the risk was generated Figure (3).
Still, identifying the team that generated the risk is quite complicated and requires efforts
of a team of professional analysts, such as, e.g., the safety officer's team, which is supposed to
be familiar with the stages and layout of the work. The accident investigation determines not
only the active causes leading to the accident, but also includes the attributes of the schedule
itself, as well as tools, places, personnel, etc. involved in the risk creation. As a result, the safety
officers can determine with high confidence the commencing time T0 of the Team A activity
that most likely created a hazard event TR, which became a risky one and threatened the Team
B. Finally, a team of safety experts analyzes all actions that preceded the occurrence of the
accident, since the range of the risk dormancy time uncertainties is basically the risk creation
time until its materialization.
One can therefore calculate the statistics of the risk dormancy duration from its creation
TR until accident occurrence Tacc regardless of the teams involved in the hazard generation. RD
time is a random variable; hence a probabilistic analysis should apply. Actually, Tacc could be
established rather accurately due to the time recording of an accident’s occurrence, while T0 and
TR should be considered as are best estimates made by the professional safety officers.
RD is clearly a positive value, and its range is between the RD generating point TR on one
side and the time of the accident occurrence Tacc where RD terminates at the other.
The risk dormancy time Td is a random variable extending between the beginning of
Team A activity T0, which could possibly generate a hazard event TR, and the accident time
Tacc. When TR is close to T0, then the time Td reaches its maximum value. Similarly, when the
time TR is close to Tacc, then Td approaches zero. Thus, the entire range of RD time uncertainty
can be expressed as
(1)
13. In accordance with the maximum entropy principle, we choose a uniform distribution for
RD time Figure (4) regardless of which particular team caused it.
The probability density function (pdf) is therefore a constant, as expressed by the
equation:
(2)
Here is the Heaviside step function:
(3)
f (Td) - Normalized pdf of RD time (Normalization of pdf by Tacc to achieve an integral equal
to 1) and Td is the random RD time uniformly distributed
Our observations are based on the distribution of RD time generated by a number of
accident occurrences and not only on a single event. Thus the distribution should be averaged
for all events. The average is the arithmetic mean of all the RD times:
Figure 4 Risk dormancy time distribution
14. Here - Average of risk dormancy time of each division, i - Index of time to accident
on each division, n - RD accidents number on each division, k - Division index.
The RD time probability of all accidents at the PU (in the five divisions, to be precise)
expressed in equation (5):
Here - Average probability of RD time of all divisions
Fexp – experiment cdf of RD time of all divisions
3. Results
As shown in equation (7), the CDF fit function is specified the five divisions of the PU. This fit
function positively predicts the experimental CDF function Fexp equation (6) of RD time for
MTRD accidents data:
(7)
F (Td) – CDF fit function
θ1 - Scale parameter, Short-term expected time
θ2 - Scale parameter, Long-term expected time
β1 - Shape parameter, Short-term expected time
β2 - Shape parameter, Long-term expected time
α – Partition parameter, dividing the data into short α part and long (1-α) content
The RD time distribution parameters for the five PU divisions are shown in Table (3).
Each one is also subdivided by two distinctive populations. Sub-data are well described by
Weibull distribution. Accordingly, each data subset is characterized by a vector of three
parameters as shown in the following table:
15. Table 3 Distribution characteristic parameters
Table (3) distinguishes between two different groups. First, the three divisions: North,
South and Logistics, showing a clear distinction between short and long term. Expectedly, the
fit function of this group shows a good fit to RD time data see Figures (5a) (5b) (5c). However,
the second group of the two other divisions, Generation and Construction, has a majority of RD
time appearances of short-term character, about 0.9 and 0.8 respectively, compared to a smaller
long-term RD appearance. Because of that we ignore the long term for this group, whose sub-
data are well described by Weibull distribution. Each subset data are characterized by a vector
of two parameters (Table 4).
Table 4 Distribution characteristic parameters
Division/
Parameter
α
θ1 θ2 β1 β2
North
District
0.47 3.98 570 0.92 1.4
South
District
0.68 4 539 0.92 0.96
Logistics 0.69 19 622 0.67 1.32
*
Generation
0.9 20 660 0.66 1.55
*Construct
ion
0.8 51 750 0.49 2.32
Division / Parameter θ1 β1
Generation 26 0.4
Construction 121 0.45
19. The fit function shows a sufficient fitness to RD time data see Figures (5d) (5e). Monte-Carlo
simulation is used to generate random points from the domain RD time distribution data to
determine the validity of the five divisions' parameters - a kind of bootstrap simulation.
The simulation data show rather poor correlation between α, β and θ parameters. Consequently
we are considering them as independent parameters.
Hazard function: To confirm the results of the effect of RD one could examine the
impact of these parameters by employing the hazard function for each division:
The hazard function has resulted in the same groups of CDF functions with respect to RD time:
Group One: North, South and Logistics divisions characterized by two shape parameter β1 and
β2 as follows: 0.92, 0.92, 0.67 and 1.4, 0.96, 1.32 respectively (see Tables (3) (4). The results
for the β value were found to be close to 1, demonstrating almost constant failure rate in time
0 200 400 600 800 1 10
3
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
trace 1
Figure 7-a Hazard function of North district divisions
Dormancy time
Hazardfunction
20. see Figures (7a) (7b) (7c).
However, we are unable to explain the volatility behavior of the two models presented in
equation 7, which brings one to the three choices of Weibull. Similarly, one could question
why these parameter values were obtained. These questions will be addressed in the future
work.
0 200 400 600 800
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
trace 1
Figure 7-b Hazard function of South district divisions
Dormancy time
Hazardfunction
0 200 400 600 800
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
trace 1
Figure 7-c Hazard function of Logistic division
Dormancy time
Hazardfunction
21. Group Two: Generation and Construction Divisions characterized by single-shape
parameter β1 of 0.4 and 0.45 respectively see Table 4. The results of β were found to be less
than 1 demonstrating a decreasing failure rate in time as shown in Figures (7d) (7e).
4. Discussion
The type of organizations considered in this study are quite complicated, as they are
characterized by significant and strong interdependence between the management and MT
professional labor, in addition to the effect of interaction among themselves, regardless of
0 200 400 600 800 1 10
3
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
trace 1
Figure 7-d Hazard function of Generation division
Dormancy time
Hazardfunction
0 200 400 600 800 1 10
3
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
trace 1
Figure 7-e Hazard function of Construction division
Dormancy time
Hazardfunction
22. simultaneity. This complexity could lead to problematic aspects in internal company behavior,
sometimes causing safety problems.
The scope of this paper extends the risk management approach from the well-known
management models, with the addition of the important aspect of the MT safety perspective
beyond simultaneous situations, i.e., RD - risk dormancy. The research provided here extends
the existing approaches to a holistic level.
The obtained data on RD accidents indicate that the risk dormancy time distribution is
characterized by Weibull parameters: θ1, β1 - short term, θ2, β2 -long term respectively and
partition parameter α as shown in Tables (3) (4) above, for situations, in which the very nature
of the work dictates the dormancy time, as supported in the following data discussion:
First, θ1, β1 short term expected RD time and α partition parameters:
(1) North and South divisions - T&D districts
Scale parameter θ1 , whose RD time is 3.9 and 4 hours, respectively. An examination of
the accident investigation data shows that tasks in the T&D districts have the following
characteristics:
i. Most tasks are scheduled and completed in one day, because the nature of T&D work
requires power supply resumption to customers as quickly as possible. As a result, the short
term of risk dormancy time lasts a few hours.
ii. Tasks are performed sequentially by a professional MT.
iii. Subtasks are performed sequentially.
iv. Similar field of activity. E.g., lineman-teams of differing proficiency levels are
necessary for executing complementary parts of power line work due to the complexity of the
work and the existence of risk factors such as electricity, and, as a consequence of that, have
high safety level requirements. For example, erecting a transformer requires at least two
different teams: an electricians’ team to de-energize transformer connections to the power lines
and install grounds and an overhead line-work team to install the transformer. Thus, the work
teams require the necessary expertise for each phase of the work.
Shape parameter β1 of 0.92 for both districts:
These β1 values are close to 1, indicating an almost constant accident rate regarding RD
time. This happens if there is maximum entropy, characterized by exponential distribution
23. process. Remarkably, hazards and risky situations analyzed in this paper, and which are more
likely to cause accidents at a constant rate, are related to electrical supply divisions (South and
North divisions as shown in Figures (7a) and (7b).
Partition parameter α - divides the South and North divisions’ risk dormancy time
appearances into two separate categories in which the short term is 0.47, 0.68 respectively.
Case study - 1: A lines work team of PU North division performed an underground
cable connection to an overhead line. According to the safety instructions, the cable to be
worked on must be positively identified by tags and must be isolated from the electric supply
sources. Furthermore, tests must be performed to verify that the cable is de-energized, and
grounds of an approved type must be applied to protect workers from all the energy sources.
Earlier in the morning of the same day, an authorized clearance team should be assigned to
identify and de-energize the underground cable, in accordance with an authorization provided
and documented by a system operator. The clearance team is supposed to install the protective
short-circuiting and grounding equipment required for the protection of the team working on
cable connection. The permission to start working was given at the work site. While the cable
cutting work was in progress, an explosion occurred. The team cut an energized cable. The
authorized clearance team misidentified the correct cable and gave the work authorization for
the wrong cable. Workers were injured due to electrical arc flash.
In this case the above-mentioned scale parameter characteristics apply about 2 hours of
short-term dormancy time.
(2) Logistic division
Scale parameter θ1, whose risk dormancy time is 19 hours. The present results revealed a
prominent attribute related to work course duration. The large majority of appearances of these
RD accident occurrences are at the end of a working day or a shift. The following theme is the
main characteristic of the risk dormancy causation: in the Logistic division the main MT
activities occurring at the beginning or at the end of the working day/shift were the loading and
unloading of trucks.
Shape parameter β1 - a shape parameter value of β1 = 0.67 1 indicates that the accident
rates decrease over time. This happens if significant hazards or risky situations are generated
result in an accident at a decreasing rate over time.
24. Partition parameter α, which is dividing the Logistic division risk dormancy time
appearances into two substantial populations' 0.69, 0.31 of short and long term, respectively.
Case study - 2: A workshop employee was on his way to repair a metal processing
machine. A stack of iron bars, delivered the previous day, was still on the workshop floor,
protruding into the employee’s pathway. He stumbled as he passed the stack and injured his leg.
Material deliveries are usually made in the morning and materials are unloaded from trucks at
the workshop yard close to where the machines are placed, pending transfer to storerooms.
These irons bars were unloaded a day before the accident. A 24 dormancy time was estimated
by the safety officer.
Case study - 3: The PU owns a rather big truck fleet, used for truck-mounted work
platforms and truck-mounted cranes, which are used for loading/unloading and uplifting
workers to heights. In this case one of the trucks was sent back to duty from in-house periodic
maintenance service on the morning of that day, the truck driver opened the engine hood during
a routine cleaning and checking procedure at the end of the shift and was injured while trying to
remove a "piece of rubber" that was inadvertently left there by a garage worker. An eight-hour
RD time was estimated by safety department.
(3) Generation and Construction divisions with significant short term expected
RD time
It's obvious from Table (3) that partition parameter α of the magnitude of 0.9 and 0.8,
respectively, indicates the dominant short term RD time appearances in these divisions.
Therefore, we neglected/ignored the long term appearance in those two divisions as shown in
Table (4).
Scale parameter θ1, whose risk dormancy time is 26 and 121 hours, respectively. Task
substitute time, i.e., first task completion and transition to the next task by MT at generation,
construction and logistic divisions are longer than in T&D districts.
Shape parameter β1 of 0.4 and 0.45 again a value of β1 1 indicates that the accidents
rate decreases over time. This happens if there are significant hazards or risky situations
generated early and leading to an accident in a decreasing rate over time.
Case study - 4: To carry out a maintenance job in a turbine building of a power station, a
scaffold was erected and placed on the route of an overhead bridge crane. The crane consists of
parallel runways with a traveling bridge spanning the gap and equipped with hoist that travels
25. along the bridge. These cranes are electrically operated from ground level by a control pendant.
Three days later a team from another department used the crane for lifting heavy valves as part
of a job. The crane hit the scaffold, causing extensive damage. In this case the above-mentioned
generation scale parameter characteristics apply a risk dormancy time of about 72 hours.
Second, θ2, β2 long term expected RD time and α partition parameters:
(1) North, South and Logistic divisions
Scale parameter θ2 whose RD time is 570, 539 and 622 hours, respectively, the long
term RD accidents are likely to affect teams with no professional linkage between them. There
is no significant difference observed in the results for all the divisions as seen in Table (3) and
(4).
Case study – 5: A working team of the Southern PU district was sent for carrying out
maintenance work on electric supply line of low voltage network.An employee whose job
included activities installing, constructing, adjusting, repairing, etc. climbed on a metal pole and
started repair work. An electrical current flow as a result of contact between transformer cables
and the pole causing electrical shake to worker. Investigation found that a month before another
working team of the same district performed different work on the same transformer, causing
faulty cables connection of the transformer. As a result, loose connection of the cable made
contact with the conductive metal pole and electrical flash of short circuit injured the team.
In this case, different teams, namely maintenance and operation teams of the same
district, performed different tasks without professional affiliation or linkage between them. The
scale parameter θ2 characteristic applied a risk dormancy time of about 720 hours.
(2) Generation and Construction divisions
Negligible long term expected RD time
5. Conclusions
A novel probabilistic risk management model has been introduced to characterize the risk
dormancy phenomenon to be considered as a proper way of taking in to account MT aspects in
the occupational safety research. Furthermore, a holistic perception of MT functional
complexity allows for a generalized view of MT mutual interaction instead of focusing in the
single team behavior.
The following conclusions can be drawn from the carried out analysis.
26. The model is innovative in two major ways: Firstly, the identification of risk dormancy in
sequential multi-team work, i.e., Multi-team Risk Dormancy – MTRD. Though, unidentified
dormant risks or the underestimation of identified dormant risks are a "ticking bomb": each such
risk represents an unsafe/hazardous event that is certain to happen in the foreseeable future and
which threatens other teams continuing the same or a different job on site. Indeed, the current
time-space approach does not address or offer solutions to such risks. Therefore, we have
developed an RD approach that offers a solution for predicting TDP. Secondly, the PU accident
database enables us to evaluate and determine the above-mentioned significant risk aspect
tendencies. Accordingly, the proposed model defines risk dormancy, a new facet of risks
generated by multi-team work in modern industrial and infrastructure organizations, regardless
of the time frame involved.
Acknowledgments
True friendship is the willingness to sacrifice one's self for the other. This study is
dedicated to my friend, the late Dr. Majdi Latif, who inspired and encouraged me.
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