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MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS
UNDER GUIDANCE OF
Mr. Yogesh Puri,Sir.

                       By-Shashank Kumar Saxena
                       M.B.A -1st Sem
                       STEP-HBTI
Index
A.   Introduction
B.   Demand & Elasticity of Demand
C.   Supply & Elasticity of Supply
D.   Demand Forecasting
E.   Production
F.   Cost
G.   Revenue
H.   Main Forms of Market
I.   National Income
J.   Business cycle & profit
Introduction
Managerial Economics
• Because of application of economic principles to
  business management the term business
  economics and managerial economics are used
  interchangeable. However it is concern with 2
  fundamental aspects: -
  a)-Decision making
  b)-Forward Planning
Scope
• M.E helps managers in taking decisions which
  involves risk & uncertainty. Some of those are: -
  a)-Profit Decision
  b)-Demand decision
  c)-Price Output Decisions
  d)-Investment Decisions
Fundamentals of Managerial Economics
• Opportunity Cost Principle
• Incremental Cost Principle
• Time Perspective Principle
  a)-Short Run Principle
  b)-Long Run Principle
• Discounting Principle
• Equi-Marginal Principle
Key Terms
  •   demand                         •   supply
  •   demand schedule                •   supply schedule
  •   law of demand                  •   law of supply
  •   diminishing marginal utility   •   supply curve
  •   income effect                  •   determinants of supply
  •   substitution effect            •   change in supply
  •   demand curve                   •   change in quantity
  •   determinants of demand             supplied
  •   normal goods                   •   equilibrium price
  •   inferior goods                 •   equilibrium quantity
  •   substitute good                •   surplus
  •   complementary good             •   shortage
  •   change in demand               •   price ceiling
  •   change in quantity demanded    •   price floor

                                                                  3-7
Market
• Interaction between buyers and
  sellers
• Buyers demand goods
• Sellers supply goods
• Assumptions
 ▫ Standardized good
 ▫ Competitive market
Demand & Elasticity of Demand
Demand
• Schedule or curve
• Amount consumers willing and able to purchase
  at a given price
• Other things equal
• Individual demand
• Market demand
• Law of Demand: -Other things equal, as price
  falls quantity demanded rises and price rises the
  quantity demanded falls
Cont.
• Exceptions to law of demand
  a)-Griffen goods
  b)-Snob affect
  c)-Future exceptation
  d)-Ignorance
  e)-Emergency
 • Demand function:- A mathematical represent of
   the quantity demanded and factors affecting it.
                 Q=f{P,P0,W,F…….}
Cont.
Where,
  P=Price of commodity.
  P0 =Population
  W=Weather Condition
  F=Future Exception
• Two levels: Individual Demand
              Market Demand
Individual demand curve
                        P
                               6


                               5



            Price (per unit)
   P Qd                        4
  `5 10
                               3
  4 20

  3   35                       2


  2   55                       1
                                                                        D
  1 80
                               0                                            Q
                                    10   20   30   40   50   60   70   80
                                   Quantity Demanded (units per week)
Individual Demand          P
                                  6            Change in
                                                Demand
                                  5




               Price (per unit)
       P Qd                       4                             Change in
      `5 10                                                      Quantity
                                  3                             Demanded
      4 20

      3   35                      2
                                                                         D2

      2   55                      1
                                                                       D1
                                                                D3
       1 80
                                  0
                                       2   4    6   8   10 12   14   16 18 Q
                                      Quantity Demanded (unit per week)

                                                                               3-14
Reasons for change (increase or
decrease) in demand
•   Change in income.
•   Changes in taste, habits and preference.
•   Change in fashions and customs
•   Change in distribution of wealth.
•   Change in substitutes.
•   Change in demand of position of complementary
    goods.
•   Change in population.
•   Advertisement and publicity persuasion.
•   Change in the value of money.
•   Change in the level of taxation.
•   Expectation of future changes in price.
Elasticity of demand
• Elasticity means the degree of responsiveness.
  When talked in terms of demand, it tells the
  degree of change/response in demand w.r.t
  change in price.
• In economics, it acts as a tool to
  measure/describe the steepness or flatness of
  curves or functions.
• Price elasticity of demand is computed along a
  demand curve. It is a ratio of % changes in
  demand and price.
Why it is imp.?
Law of demand tells us that as the price of a
  commodity falls, the quantity demanded increases,
  and vice versa.
It does not tell us by how much the quantity
  demanded increases, as a result of a certain fall in
  price or vice versa.
Law of demand tells us only the direction of
  change in demand but not the rate at which
  the change takes place.
To know this, we should know the elasticity of
  demand or Price elasticity of demand.
• It can be represented in the following
  mathematical form: -

   Elasticity(e p) =
                       % change in Quantity demanded
                             % change in Price
                        change in Price
   % change in p =                        100.
                         orignal Price
   % change in p =           P
                          (    )   100
                            P
Methods of measuring elasticity of
demand.
• Point elasticity method
• Expenditure Outlay method
• % method
Types of Price Elasticity
      1.   Perfectly elastic
      2.   Perfectly Inelastic
      3.   Unity Elasticity
      4.   Relatively Elastic
      5.   Relatively Inelastic.
Factors determining Price Elasticity of
Demand

•   1. Nature of the commodity
•   Extent of use
•   Range of substitutes
•   Income level
•   Proportion of income spent on the commodity
•   Urgency of demand
•   Durability
•   Purchase frequency
Perfectly inelastic demand

Where no reduction in price is needed to cause an
 increase in demand.
The firm can sell the quantity in wants to sell at
 the prevailing price but none at all at even
 slightly higher price.
The shape of the demand curve is horizontal.
The elasticity is = infinite.
Perfectly inelastic demand

Even a large change in price, does not change the
 quantity demanded.

Here the shape of the curve is vertical.

Elasticity = 0
Unity elasticity

A proportionate change in price results in exactly
 the same proportional change in quantity
 demanded.

Shape of the demand curve is a rectangular
 hyperbola.

Elasticity = 1
Relatively elastic demand

A reduction in price leads to more than
 proportionate change in demand.

Shape of the demand curve is flat.

Elasticity > 1
Relatively inelastic demand

A decline in price leads to less than proportionate
 increase in demand.

Shape of the demand curve is steep.

Elasticity < 1
Factors influencing
elasticity of demand
       1. Nature of the commodity.
       2. Availability of Substitutes
       3. Number of Uses
       4. Consumer‟s Income.
       5. Height of Price and Range of Price Change.
       6. Proportion of Expenditure.
       7. Durability of the Commodity.
       8. Habit.
       9. Complementary Goods.
       10. Time.
       11. Recurrence of Demand.
       12. Possibility of Postponement.
Supply & Elasticity of Supply
Supply
 • Schedule or curve
 • Amount producers willing and able
   to sell at a given price
 • Individual supply
 • Market supply



                                       3-29
Law of Supply
  • Other things equal, as price
    rises the quantity supplied
    rises
  • Explanations:
   ▫ Revenue implications
   ▫ Marginal cost
                                   3-30
Individual Supply           P
                                   6

                                                                  S1
                                   5




                Price (per unit)
        P Qs                       4
       `5 60
                                   3
       4 50

       3   35                      2


       2 20                        1

       1    5
                                   0
                                       10   20   30   40   50    60    70    Q
                                       Quantity Supplied (units per week)

                                                                            3-31
Determinants of Supply
   • Resource prices
   • Technology
   • Taxes and subsidies
   • Prices of other goods
   • Producer expectations
   • Number of sellers
                             3-32
Individual Supply            P
                                    6
                                                              S3
                                                                   S1
                                    5
                                                                             S2



                Price (per units)
        P Qs                        4
       `5 60
                                    3
       4 50

       3   35                       2


       2 20                         1

       1    5
                                    0
                                        10   20   30   40    50    60   70        Q
                                        Quantity Supplied (units per week)
                                                                              3-33
Individual Supply            P
                                    6
                                                                 S3
                                                                       S1
                                    5      Change in
                                        Quantity Supplied                        S2



                Price (per units)
        P Qs                        4
      ` 5 60
                                    3
       4 50

       3   35                       2

                                                               Change in
       2 20                         1
                                                                Supply
       1    5
                                    0
                                          10   20    30   40   50     60    70        Q
                                           Quantity Supplied (units per week)
                                                                                  3-34
Elasticity of supply
    Elasticity(e p) =
                          % change in Quantity demanded
                                % change in Price
                            change in Price
    % change in p =                                     100.
                             orignal Price
    % change in p =               P
                               (    )      100
                                 P
 •It is defined as the ratio of percentage change in quantity demanded and
 the percentage change in the price of the commodity.
 •It tells the degree of responsiveness of quantity supply due to change in
 its price.
Types of Supply Elasticity
    1.   Perfectly Elastic
    2.   Perfectly Inelastic
    3.   Unit Elasticity
    4.   More than Elastic
    5.   Less than Elastic.
Perfectly Elastic Supply
•Where no reduction in price is needed to cause an increase in supply.
•The firm can sell the quantity in wants to sell at the prevailing price but
none at all at even slightly higher price.
•The shape of the demand curve is horizontal.




           Price    Perfectly elastic supply




                                               Es = infinity




                                    Quantity Supply
Elastic Supply Curve
•A change in price leads to more than proportionate change in supply.

•Shape of the demand curve is flat.
                    price




                                                    ES > 1




                                  Quantity Supply
Perfectly inelastic supply
•Even a large change in price, does not change the quantity supplied.
•Here the shape of the curve is vertical.




                    Es = 0
        Price




                             Quantity Supply
Unit elastic
•A proportionate change in price results in exactly the same proportional
change in quantity supplied.

•Shape of the demand curve is a rectangular hyperbola.




                                         ES = 1
                    Price




                                Quantity Supply
Inelastic supply
•A change in price leads to less than proportionate change in supply.

•Shape of the demand curve is flat.


                                      ES < 1
                   Price




                                  Quantity Supply
Market Equilibrium
Market Equilibrium
• Equilibrium price and quantity
• Surplus and shortage
• Rationing function of price
• Efficient allocation
 ▫ Productive efficiency
 ▫ Allocative efficiency
                                   3-43
Market Equilibrium
                                   6

                                             6,000 units         S
                                   5           Surplus
   P   Qd                                                                       P    Qs
               Price (per units)
                                                              ` 4 Price Floor
   `5 2,000                        4
                                                                                ` 5 12,000
   4 4,000                                                                      4 10,000
                                   3
   3   7,000
                                                              ` 2 Price Ceiling 3    7,000
   2 11,000                        2
                                                                                2    4,000
   1 16,000                                     7,000 units                      1   1,000
                                   1
                                                 Shortage               D

                                   0
                                        2   4    6 7 8   10 12   14   16 18
                                       unitss of Corn (thousands per week)

                                                                                          3-44
Market Equilibrium
• Change in demand
 ▫ Shift of the demand curve
• Change in supply
 ▫ Shift of the supply curve
• Change in equilibrium price and
  quantity
                                    3-45
Market Equilibrium        Price Quantity
     • Supply increase;          ?
       Demand decrease
     • Supply decrease;
       Demand increase           ?
     • Supply increase;
       Demand increase     ?
     • Supply decrease;
       Demand decrease     ?
                                     3-46
Demand Forecasting

• Forecasting of demand is the art of predicting
  demand for a product or a service at some future
  data on the basis of certain present and past
  behavior patterns of some related events
Objectives of demand forecasting
• It enable to produce the required quantities at the
  right time
• Arrange well in advance for the various factors of
  production viz. raw materials, equipment, machine
  accessories, labour, building etc.
• It is an important aid in effective and efficient
  planning
• It can also help management in reducing its
  dependence on chance
• It is helpful in allocation of national resources
• Helpful in setting sales target
• Arrangement of funds
Methods Of Demand Forecasting
Production function
Meaning of production
 Its an activity that transforms inputs in to out
 puts.
Production Function
Production Function


       Inputs    Process        Output


Land
                 Product or
Labour             service
                  generated
Capital
                – value added
The production function
The production function can be mathematically
 written as

         Q=F(Lb,L,K,T,t….)
 Lb=land.
 L=labor.
 K=capital.
 T=Technology.
 t=time.
Factors affecting productivity
•   Technology
•   Inputs
•   Labor
•   Capital
•   Machinery
•   Land
•   Raw material
•   power
•   Time period
Classification of production function


• Short term production function.
       (K & Lb are constant)

• Long run production function.
       (Lb is constant)
Analysis run attheone factor fixed in supply but all other
• In the short
               of least short run
  factors capable of being changed
• Reflects ways in which firms respond to changes
  in output (demand)
• Can increase or decrease output using more or less of some
  factors but some likely to be easier
  to change than others
• Increase in total capacity only possible
  in the long run

• Law of variable proportion
Analysis of the long run function
• The long run is defined as the period of time taken to
  vary all factors of production
  ▫ By doing this, the firm is able to increase its total
    capacity – not just short term capacity
  ▫ Associated with a change in the scale of production
  ▫ The period of time varies according to the firm
    and the industry
Alternatives of the long run production
• Constant returns to the scale
            out put increases in the same proportion as
 the increase in the input.
• Increasing return to scale
           out put increases by a greater proportion than
 the increase in inputs.
• Decreasing returns to the scale.
          output increases in the lesser proportion than
 the increase in the inputs.
Cost Concepts in Economics
Agenda
•   Opportunity Cost
•   Long Versus Short-Run
•   Cost Concepts
•   Revenue Concepts
•   Production Rules in Short and Long-Run
•   Size in Long-Run
Opportunity Costs
• The value of the product not produced because
  an input was used for another purpose.
• The income that would have been received if the
  input had been used in its most profitable
  alternative use.
• It denotes the real cost of using an input.
Short Versus Long Run
• The short run is a period of time sufficiently
  short that only some of the variables can be
  changed.
• The long run is a period of time that all variables
  can be changed.
Types of Costs
• Variable Costs
 ▫ These costs exist only if production occurs.
 ▫ E.g., fuel for tractor, seed, etc.
• Fixed Costs
 ▫   These cost exist whether production occurs or not.
 ▫   In the long-run there are no fixed costs.
 ▫   Can be both cash and non-cash expenses.
 ▫   E.g., depreciation on tractors and buildings, etc.
Types of Costs Cont.
• Sunk Costs
 ▫ Is an expenditure that cannot be recovered.
 ▫ In essence, it becomes part of fixed costs.
 ▫ E.g., pre-harvest costs.
Cost Concepts
• Total Fixed Costs (TFC)
 ▫ The summation of all fixed and sunk costs to
   production.
• Total Variable Costs (TVC)
 ▫ The summation of all variable costs to production.
• Total Costs (TC)
 ▫ The summation of total fixed and total variable costs.
 ▫ TC=TFC+TVC
Cost Concepts Cont.
• Average Fixed Costs (AFC)
 ▫ The total fixed costs divided by output.
• Average Variable Costs (AVC)
 ▫ The total variable costs divided by output.
• Average Total Costs (ATC)
 ▫ The total costs divided by output.
 ▫ The summation of average fixed costs and average
   variable costs, i.e., ATC=AFC+AVC.
Cost Concepts Cont.
• Marginal Costs
 ▫ The change in total costs divided by the change in
   output.
    TC/ Y
 ▫ The change in total variable costs divided by the
   change in output.
    TVC/ Y
Side Note on Marginal Cost
• How can marginal cost equal both the change in
  total cost divided by the change in output and
  the change in total variable cost divided by the
  change in output when variable costs are not
  equal to total costs?
 ▫ Short answer: fixed costs do not change.
Side Note on Marginal Cost Cont.
• We want to show that MC = TVC/ Y when TVC
   TC.
• We know that TC = TFC + TVC
• This implies that TC = (TFC + TVC)
• This implies that TC = TFC + TVC
• We know that TFC = 0
• Hence, TC = TVC
• Divide the previous by Y, we obtain
• TC/ Y = TVC/ Y
• MC = TVC/ Y
Graphical Representation of Cost
Concepts
      `

                           TC


                            TVC




                            TFC




                                Y
Graphical Representation of Cost
Concepts Cont.
      `
                         MC




                                  ATC

                                   AVC



                                  AFC

                              Y
Notes on Costs
• MC will meet AVC and ATC from below at the
  corresponding minimum point of each.
 ▫ Why?
• As output increases AFC goes to zero.
• As output increases, AVC and ATC get closer to
  each other.
74




Example of Cost Concepts
X     Y    TFC    TVC    TC     AFC     AVC     ATC     MC

10   10    1000   1000   2000   100     100     200
16   30    1000   1600   2600   33.33   53.33   86.67   30
20   48    1000   2000   3000   20.83   41.67   62.50   22.22
22   65    1000   2200   3200   15.38   33.85   49.23   11.76
26   81    1000   2600   3600   12.35   32.10   45.45   25
32   96    1000   3200   4200   10.42   33.33   43.75   40
40   108   1000   4000   5000   9.26    37.04   46.30   66.67
50   116   1000   5000   6000   8.62    43.10   51.72   125
62   120   1000   6200   7200   8.33    51.67   60.00   300
76   117   1000   7600   8600   8.55    64.96   73.51   -466.67
Revenue Concepts
• Revenue (TR) is defined as the output price (py)
  multiplied by the quantity (Y).
• Average revenue (AR) equals total revenue
  divided by output (Y), i.e., TR/Y, which equals
  py .
• Marginal Revenue is the change in total revenue
  divided by the change in output, i.e., TR/ Y.
Short-Run Decision Making
• In the short-run, there are many ways to choose
  how to produce.
 ▫ Maximize output.
 ▫ Utility maximization of the manager.
 ▫ Profit maximization.
    Profit ( ) is defined as total revenue minus total cost,
     i.e., = TR – TC.
Short-Run Decision Making Cont.
• When examining output, we want to set our
  production level where MR = MC when MR >
  AVC in the short-run.
 ▫ If MR    AVC, we would want to shut down.
    Why?
 ▫ If we can not set MR exactly equal to MC, we want
   to produce at a level where MR is as close as
   possible to MC, where MR > MC.
Intuition for Setting MR = MC
• Suppose MR < MC.
• This implies that by producing more output, you
  have a greater addition of cost than you do
  revenue.
 ▫ Hence you would not make the change.
Intuition for Setting MR = MC
   Suppose MR > MC.
   This implies that by producing more
    output, you have a greater addition of
    revenue than you do cost.
       Hence you would make the change.
   You would stop increasing output at the
    point where the trade-off in additional
    revenue is just equal to the trade-off in
    additional costs.
Why Shutdown When
MR < AVC
• If MR < AVC, this implies that you are not
  bringing in enough revenue from each unit
  produced to cover your variable costs.
• Hence you could minimize your loss if you were
  to shutdown.
Why Produce When
ATC > MR > AVC
• When MR < ATC, the company is making a loss.
  ▫ Why would it produce?
• Since the firm is making something above and
  beyond its variable cost, it can put some of that
  revenue towards fixed cost.
  ▫ This implies that it minimizes its loss by producing.
Profit Scenario Graphically
        `        Profit

                              MC

   MR = py

                                        ATC
     ATC
                                         AVC



                                        AFC

                          Yprofit   Y
Loss Minimizing Graphically
        `
                             MC


              Loss

                                      ATC

     ATC
                                       AVC
   MR = py


                                      AFC

                     Yloss        Y
Shutdown Decision Graphically
        `
                     If we did not produce:
                     loss = B                 MC


                            Loss = A + B

                                                       ATC
     ATC
             B                                          AVC



   MR = py       A                                     AFC

                            Yloss                  Y
Production Rules for the Long-Run
• To maximize profits, the farmer should produce
  when selling price is greater than ATC at the
  production level where MC = MR.
• To minimize losses, the farmer should not
  produce when selling price is less than ATC, i.e.,
  shutdown the business.
Note on Cost Concepts
• The producer‟s supply curve is the part of the
  MC curve that is above the shutdown point.
Long-Run Average Costs
• The long run average cost (LRAC) curve is the
  envelope of the short run average cost curves
  when the size of the operation is allowed to
  increase or decrease.
• Note that a short run average cost curve exists
  for every possible farm size, as defined by the
  amount of fixed input available.
Long-Run Average Costs Cont.
• In a competitive market, the long run optimal
  production will occur at the lowest point on the
  LRAC, i.e., economic profits are driven to zero.
Size in the Long-Run
• A measure of size in the long run between output
  and costs as farm size increases (EOS) is the
  following:
 ▫ EOS = percent change in costs divided by percent
   change in output value
Size in the Long-Run Cont.
• If this ratio of EOS is less than one, then there
  are decreasing costs to expanding production,
  i.e., increasing returns to size.
• If this ratio is equal to one, then there are
  constant costs to expanding production, i.e.,
  constant returns to size.
• If this ratio is greater than one, then there are
  increasing costs to expanding production, i.e.,
  decreasing returns to size.
91




Economies of Size
• This exists when the LRAC is decreasing.
• Also known as increasing returns to size.
• Usually occurs because of full utilization of
  capital (tractors and buildings) and labor.
• Also occurs because of discount pricing for
  buying in bulk and selling price benefits for
  selling large quantities.
92




Diseconomies of Size
• This exists when the LRAC is increasing.
• Also known as decreasing returns to size.
• Usually occurs because a lack of managerial
  skills.
• Also occurs because travel time increases as
  farm increases.
 ▫ Livestock: disease control and manure disposal.
 ▫ Crops: geographical distance away from each other.
Market Structure
• Market structure – identifies how a market
  is made up in terms of:
  ▫ The number of firms in the industry
  ▫ The nature of the product produced
  ▫ The degree of monopoly power each firm has
  ▫ The degree to which the firm can influence price
  ▫ Profit levels
  ▫ Firms‟ behaviour – pricing strategies, non-price competition,
    output levels
  ▫ The extent of barriers to entry
  ▫ The impact on efficiency
Market Structure
  Perfect                                                Pure
Competition                                            Monopoly




              More competitive (fewer imperfections)
Market Structure
  Perfect                                          Pure
Competition                                      Monopoly




              Less competitive (greater degree
                      of imperfection)
Main forms of Market
                                                                           Pure
  Perfect
                                                                         Monopoly
Competition



               Monopolistic Competition          Oligopoly   Duopoly Monopoly




              The further right on the scale, the greater the degree
                    of monopoly power exercised by the firm.
Perfect Competition
• One extreme of the market structure spectrum
• Characteristics:
  ▫ Large number of firms
  ▫ Products are homogenous (identical) – consumer
    has no reason to express a preference for any firm
  ▫ Freedom of entry and exit into and out
    of the industry
  ▫ Firms are price takers – have no control
    over the price they charge for their product
  ▫ Each producer supplies a very small proportion
    of total industry output
  ▫ Consumers and producers have perfect knowledge about the
    market
Perfect Competition            Givenaverage the cost ofis the
                                      Thethis industry price firm
                                      AtThe MC is cost curve profit
                                           The assumption of is
                                            the output the
                                    maximisation,– shaped curve.
                                      standard ‘U’ additional demand
                                        producing theby the
                                           determined firm produces
Cost/Revenue                          is(marginal) AC curve =profit.
                                         making units the atMR
                                           and the normal its
                       MC           at an cuts supply of MC industry
                                      MC output where of output. It
                                    (Q1). asis first (due run alaw of
                                      This at whole. levelfirm is a
                                      lowest point long to thethe
                                           This a because is
                                        falls a output The of
                                    fraction of the total industry rises
                                      mathematical relationship
                                      equilibriumreturns) then
                                        diminishing supplier within
                                           very small position.
                                    supply. industry and has no
                                      between marginal and average
                                        asthe
                                            output rises.
                            AC        values.
                                           control over price. They will
                                           sell each extra unit for the
                                           same price. Price therefore
                                           = MR and AR




                            P = MR = AR




                 Q1         Output/Sales
Perfect Competition
   Diagrammatic representation                         Because the model assumes
                                                       perfect knowledge,MC costs
                                                       The assume a firm the firm
                                                       Average and and makes
                                                       Nowlower ACMarginal would
Cost/Revenue
                                           MC          gains that advantage nowlower
                                                       some theexpected is for only a
                                                       could form of firm to be
                                                       imply be the modification to
                                                       short timein the short run, form
                                                       its product before others copy
                                                       but price, or gains some
                                                       earning abnormal profit
                                             MC1       the idea or are attracted to the
                                                       remains the same.
                                                       (AR>AC) represented a the
                                                       of cost advantage (sayby new
                                                       industry by method). What
                                                       production the existence of
                                                       grey area.
                                               AC      abnormal profit. If new firms
                                                       would happen?
                                                       enter the industry, supply will
                                                       increase, price will fall and the
                                              AC1      firm will be left making normal
                                                       profit once again.


                                              P = MR = AR
               Abnormal profit
     AC1
                                                P1 = MR1 = AR1



                                 Q1   Q2       Output/Sales
Monopolistic or Imperfect Competition

• Where the conditions of perfect competition
  do not hold, „imperfect competition‟ will exist
• Varying degrees of imperfection give rise to
  varying market structures
• Monopolistic competition is one of these –
  not to be confused with monopoly!
Monopolistic or Imperfect Competition

• Characteristics:
 ▫ Large number of firms in the industry
 ▫ May have some element of control over price due to
   the fact that they are able to differentiate their product
   in some way from their rivals – products are therefore
   close, but not perfect, substitutes
 ▫ Entry and exit from the industry is relatively easy –
   few barriers to entry and exit
 ▫ Consumer and producer knowledge imperfect
Monopolistic or Imperfect Competition
        Implications for the diagram:
                                             MC
                                                               This is demandrunandfacing
Cost/Revenue                                                    We assumeCost theQ1 and
                                                                IfThe firm produces firm
                                                                   the a shortthat equilibrium
                                                                    Marginal
                                                                  Since the additional
                                                                                 curve
                                                                produceswillfirmdownward
                                                                    Averagea be willabeMC
                                                                             where MR = the
                                                                              Cost in£1.00 on
                                                               position forreceived from
                                                                sells firm unit for
                                                                  revenue
                                                                  the each
                                                                (profit maximising output).
                                                                average shape. falls, (on
                                                                  each unit sold However,
                                                                    same and the cost
                                                               monopolistic market the the
                                                                  sloping with represents
                                                                At because the products
                                                                  MR curve level, AR>AC
                                                                    this output
                                                   AC          structure. for from sales.
                                                                average) lies under the
                                                                  AR earned each unit being
                                                                and the firm makes in 40p x
                                                                    are differentiated
                                                                60p, curve. will make
                                                                  AR the firm
                                                                abnormal profit (the grey
                                                                Q1 in abnormal profit.will
£1.00                                                               some way, the firm
                                                                shaded area). to sell extra
                                                                    only be able
                                                                    output by lowering
           Abnormal Profit                                          price.

£0.60




                                        MR        D (AR)
                               Q1
                                              Output / Sales
Monopolistic or Imperfect
                    Competition
      Implications for the diagram:
                                        MC                   Because there is relative
Cost/Revenue
                                                             freedom of entry and exit
                                                             into the market, new
                                                             firms will enter
                                                  AC         encouraged by the
                                                             existence of abnormal
                                                             profits. New entrants will
                                                             increase supply causing
                                                             price to fall. As price falls,
                                                             the AR and MR curves
                                                             shift inwards as revenue
                                                             from each sale is now
                                                             less.




                                      AR1      D (AR)
                   MR1          MR
                         Q1                 Output / Sales
Monopolistic or Imperfect
                        Competition
          Implications for the diagram:
                                            MC                   Notice that the existence
  Cost/Revenue
                                                                 of more substitutes makes
                                                                 the new AR (D) curve
                                                                 more price elastic. The
                                                      AC         firm reduces output to a
                                                                 point where MC = MR
                                                                 (Q2). At this output AR =
                                                                 AC and the firm will make
AR = AC
                                                                 normal profit.




                                          AR1      D (AR)
                         MR1        MR
                    Q2         Q1               Output / Sales
Monopolistic or Imperfect
                        Competition
          Implications for the diagram:
                                            MC                   This is the long run
  Cost/Revenue
                                                                 equilibrium position
                                                                 of a firm in monopolistic
                                                                 competition.
                                                      AC

AR = AC




                                          AR1
                         MR1
                    Q2                          Output / Sales
Monopolistic or Imperfect Competition


• Some important points about monopolistic
  competition:
 ▫ May reflect a wide range of markets
 ▫ Not just one point on a scale – reflects many
   degrees
   of „imperfection‟
 ▫ Examples?
Monopolistic or Imperfect Competition

•   Restaurants
•   Plumbers/electricians/local builders
•   Solicitors
•   Private schools
•   Plant hire firms
•   Insurance brokers
•   Health clubs
•   Hairdressers
•   Funeral directors
•   Estate agents
•   Damp proofing control firms
Monopolistic or Imperfect Competition

• In each case there are many firms
  in the industry
• Each can try to differentiate its product
  in some way
• Entry and exit to the industry is relatively free
• Consumers and producers do not have perfect
  knowledge of the market – the market may indeed be
  relatively localised. Can you imagine trying to search out
  the details, prices, reliability, quality of service, etc for
  every plumber in the UK in the event of an emergency??
Oligopoly
• Competition between the few
 ▫ May be a large number of firms in the industry but the
   industry is dominated
   by a small number of very large producers
• Concentration Ratio – the proportion of total
  market sales (share) held by the top 3,4,5, etc
  firms:
 ▫ A 4 firm concentration ratio of 75% means the top 4
   firms account for 75% of all
   the sales in the industry
Oligopoly
 • Features of an oligopolistic market structure:
  ▫ Price may be relatively stable across the industry –
    kinked demand curve?
  ▫ Potential for collusion
  ▫ Behaviour of firms affected by what they believe their rivals
    might do – interdependence of firms
  ▫ Goods could be homogenous or highly differentiated
  ▫ Branding and brand loyalty may be a potent source of competitive advantage
  ▫ Non-price competition may be prevalent
  ▫ Game theory can be used to explain some behaviour
  ▫ AC curve may be saucer shaped – minimum efficient scale
    could occur over large range of output
  ▫ High barriers to entry
Monopoly
 • Pure monopoly – where only
     one producer exists in the industry
 •   In reality, rarely exists – always
     some form of substitute available!
 •   Monopoly exists, therefore,
     where one firm dominates the market
 •   Firms may be investigated for examples of
     monopoly power when market share exceeds
     25%
 •   Use term „monopoly power‟ with care!
Monopoly
 • Monopoly power – refers to cases where firms
   influence the market in some way through their
   behaviour – determined by the degree
   of concentration in the industry
   ▫ Influencing prices
   ▫ Influencing output
   ▫ Erecting barriers to entry
   ▫ Pricing strategies to prevent or stifle competition
   ▫ May not pursue profit maximisation – encourages unwanted
     entrants to the market
   ▫ Sometimes seen as a case of market failure
Monopoly
• Origins of monopoly:
 ▫ Through growth of the firm
 ▫ Through amalgamation, merger
   or takeover
 ▫ Through acquiring patent or license
 ▫ Through legal means – Royal charter,
   nationalisation, wholly owned plc
Monopoly
• Summary of characteristics of firms exercising
  monopoly power:
 ▫ Price – could be deemed too high, may be set to
   destroy competition (destroyer or predatory pricing),
   price discrimination possible.
 ▫ Efficiency – could be inefficient due to lack of
   competition (X- inefficiency) or…
    could be higher due to availability of high profits
Monopoly
• Innovation - could be high because
  of the promise of high profits, Possibly
  encourages high investment in research and
  development (R&D)
• Collusion – possible to maintain monopoly
  power of key firms
  in industry
• High levels of branding, advertising
  and non-price competition
Monopoly
• Problems with models – a reminder:
 ▫ Often difficult to distinguish between a monopoly
   and an oligopoly – both may exhibit behaviour
   that reflects monopoly power
 ▫ Monopolies and oligopolies do not necessarily aim
   for traditional assumption of profit maximisation
 ▫ Degree of contestability of the market may influence behaviour
 ▫ Monopolies not always „bad‟ – may be desirable
   in some cases but may need strong regulation
 ▫ Monopolies do not have to be big – could exist locally
Monopoly
Costs / Revenue
                                              This is curve for a monopolist
                                              Given both the short run and
                                              AR (D)the barriers to entry,
                                    MC        long to equilibrium price
                                              the monopolist will be able to
                                              likelyrunbe relatively position
                                              for a monopoly
                                              exploit abnormal profits in to
                                              inelastic. Output assumed the
£7.00
                                              long profit entry to the
                                              be atrun as maximising output
                                              (note caution here – not all
                                         AC   market is restricted.
                                              monopolists may aim
          Monopoly                            for profit maximisation!)

            Profit

£3.00




                          MR   AR
                                                   Output / Sales
                     Q1
Monopoly
                                                   Welfare
Costs / Revenue                                    implications of
                                                   monopolies
                                         MC
                                                     The higher in at competitive be
                                                      A look back a the diagram for
                                                      The price priceprice lower
                                                           monopoly and would
 £7
                                                     output means that £3willlevels
                                                      perfectunit with output reveal
                                                      market competition with
                                                      £7 per would be consumer
                                              AC      that in is reduced, indicated by
                                                      output equilibrium, price will be
                                                     surplusat Q2. at Q1.
                                                      lower levels
      Loss of consumer                                equal to the MC of production.
                                                     the grey shaded area.
                                                      On the face of it, consumers
      surplus                                         We can look therefore at a
                                                      face higher prices and less
                                                      comparison of the differences
                                                      choice in monopoly conditions
 £3                                                   between price and output in a
                                                      compared to more competitive
                                                      competitive situation compared
                                                      environments.
                                                      to a monopoly.




                                        AR
                              MR
                                                            Output / Sales
                         Q2        Q1
Monopoly
                                                     Welfare
Costs / Revenue                                      implications of
                                                     monopolies
                                           MC
                                                         The monopolist will be
                                                                              benefit
 £7                                                      from additional producer
                                                         affected by a loss of producer
                                                AC       surplus shownto the grey
                                                                  equal by the grey
                                                         shaded but……..
                                                         triangle rectangle.
        Gain in producer
        surplus
 £3




                                          AR
                                MR
                                                             Output / Sales
                           Q2        Q1
Monopoly
                                            Welfare
Costs / Revenue                             implications of
                                            monopolies
                                  MC          The value of the grey shaded
 £7                                           triangle represents the total
                                              welfare loss to society –
                                       AC     sometimes referred to as
                                              the ‘deadweight welfare loss’.


 £3




                                 AR
                       MR
                                                    Output / Sales
                  Q2        Q1
National Income
• The sum total of the values of all goods and services produced in a year It is the money
  value of the flow of goods and services available in an economy in a year
• It refers to the money value of the flow of goods and services available annually in an
  economy.
• National Income Committee of India 1951 defines National Income as follows:“ A national
  income estimate measures the volume of commodities and services turned out during a
  given period counted without duplication.”
• Marshall‟s Definition:“The labor and capital resources of a country acting on its natural
  resources produce annually a certain net aggregate of commodities, material and
  immaterial including services of all kinds…. This is the true net annual income or revenue
  of the country or the national dividend.”
• The income of a country to a specified period of time, say a year includes all types of goods
  and services which have an exchange value counting each one of them only once
• Double counting If steel has been evaluated in industrial production, it should not be
  included while calculating the value of steel products, viz, machines and motor cars. To
  avoid double counting or multiple counting, two methods are used Final products method
  Value added method.
N.I Concepts
   The following are the concepts of national income Gross National Product
  – GNP Net National Product – NNP Personal Income – PI Per capita
  Income – PCI
• Gross National Product National Income is the sum total of values of all
  goods and services produced during a year The money value of this total
  output is known as Gross National Product – GNP
  Gross National Product Example: If A,B,C,D,… are goods and services and
  If a,b,c,d,…are their prices respectively The GNP is calculated as follows
  GNP= Axa+Bxb+Cxc+Dxd….
  GNP is most frequently used national income concept It is statistically a
  simpler concept as it takes no account of depreciation and replacement
  problems
• Net National Product - NNP: This refers to the net production of goods
  and services in a country during a year NNP is also called National Income
  at Market Prices We get NNP, by deducting the depreciation from GNP
  Therefore NNP = GNP - Depreciation
• Personal Income - PI: Income earned by all the individuals and
  institutions during a year in a country The entire national income does not
  reach individuals and institutions A part of it goes by way of corporate taxes
  Undistributed profits Social security contributions People sometimes get
  incomes without any productive activity They are called Transfer Payments
  Example: Unemployment benefits, old age pensions etc. Such transfer
  payments are not included in the National Income However they are added
  to Personal Income
  PI is computed by using the following formula PI = National Income –
  (Corporate taxes, undistributed profits, social security contributions) +
  Transfer Payments
• Per Capita Income – PCI: If the national income is divided by the total
  population, we get per capital income PCI = NI/Population
  PCI may be expressed either in money terms or in real terms
NI – Methods of computation :
There three methods of NI computation:-
• Net Product method
• Factor Income method
• Expenditure method
Inflation
• “Inflation is nothing more than a sharp upward
  rise in price level.”
• Too much money chasing, too few goods.”
• Inflation is a state in which the value of money is
  falling i.e. price are rising.”
KINDS OF INFLATION
•   On the basis of rate of inflation
•   On the basis of degree of control
•   On the basis of causes
•   Others
CAUSES OF INFLATION
• Demand pull inflation
• Cost push inflation
EFFECTS OF INFLATION
• They add inefficiencies in the market, and make
  it difficult for companies to budget or plan long-
  term.
• Uncertainty about the future purchasing power
  of money discourages investment and saving.
EFFECTS OF INFLATION
• There can also be negative impacts to trade from
  an increased instability in currency exchange
  prices caused by unpredictable inflation.
• Higher income tax rates.
• Inflation rate in the economy is higher than
  rates in other countries; this will increase
  imports and reduce exports, leading to a deficit
  in the balance of trade.
Business Cycle
 • Business cycle or trade cycle is a part of the
   capitalistic economy.
 • The business cycle refers to fluctuation in
   economic activities such as levels of income,
   employment, prices and output, occurs
   more or less in regular time sequences.
 • Business cycle is characterized by upward
   and downward movement of economic
   activities.
 • In a business cycle, there are wave-like
   fluctuations in aggregate employment,
   income output and price level.
Business cycle
 • The short-term variations in economic activity
   are known as BUSINESS CYCLE.
 • Economic history shows that the economy never
   grows in a smooth and even pattern.
 • Upward and downward movements in output,
   inflation, interest rates, and employment form
   the Business Cycles that characterizes all market
   economies
Busines cycle
 • Business Cycles are the irregular expansions
   and contractions in economic activity.
 • Business Cycles are economy-wide
   fluctuations in total National Output, Income,
   and Employment, usually last for a period of 2
   to 10 years, marked by widespread expansion
   or contraction in most sectors of the economy.
133 of 23




Phases of business cycle
Business Cycle is typically divided into
four phases:
a) The recovery
b) The prosperity
c) The recession
d) The depression
Depression
 Recession merges into depression when there is a general decline in
  economic activity.
 There is considerable reduction in the production of goods and
  services, employment, income, demand and prices.
 The general decline in economic activity leads to a fall in bank
  deposits.
 When credit expansion stops, even business community is not
  willing to borrow.
 Thus, a depression is characterized by mass unemployment –
  general fall in prices, wages, profits, interest rate, consumption
  expenditure, investment – bank loans and advances falling –
  factories close down – capital goods industries are also closed down.
 During this phase, there will be pessimism leading to closing down
  of business firms.
Recovery
  Recovery denotes the turning point of
   business cycle from depression to prosperity.
  There is a slow rise in output, employment,
   income and price – demand for commodities
   go up steadily.
  There is increase in investment – bank and
   financial institutions are also willing to
   granting loans and advances.
  Pessimism gives way to optimism.
  The process of recovery becomes combative
   and leads to prosperity
Prosperity
 In this period, demand, output, employment and income
  are at a high level, they tend to raise prices.
 But wages, salaries, interest rates, rentals and taxes do not
  rise in proportion to the rise in prices.
 The gap between prices and cost increases - the margin of
  profit increases.
 The increase of profit and the prospect of its continuance
  commonly cause a rapid rise in stock market values.
 The economy is engulfed in waves of optimism.
 Larger profit expectation further increase – investment
  which is helped by liberal bank credit.
 This leads to peak or boom.
of 23




Recession
  Recession starts downward movement of economic
   activities from peak/boom.
  It is a state in which there is general deceleration in the
   economic activity resulting in cuts in production and
   employment falling prices of stock market.
  Banking and financial institutional loans and advances
   beginning to decline.
  As a result profit margins decline further because costs
   starts overtaking prices.
  Recession may be mild/severe – it lead to a sudden
   explosive situation emanating from banking system and
   stock markets.
  Such experience of the United States in 1873, 1893,
   1907, 1933 and 2007.
Thank You for your
Patience and Keen
Interest.

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Managerial Economics

  • 1. MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS UNDER GUIDANCE OF Mr. Yogesh Puri,Sir. By-Shashank Kumar Saxena M.B.A -1st Sem STEP-HBTI
  • 2. Index A. Introduction B. Demand & Elasticity of Demand C. Supply & Elasticity of Supply D. Demand Forecasting E. Production F. Cost G. Revenue H. Main Forms of Market I. National Income J. Business cycle & profit
  • 4. Managerial Economics • Because of application of economic principles to business management the term business economics and managerial economics are used interchangeable. However it is concern with 2 fundamental aspects: - a)-Decision making b)-Forward Planning
  • 5. Scope • M.E helps managers in taking decisions which involves risk & uncertainty. Some of those are: - a)-Profit Decision b)-Demand decision c)-Price Output Decisions d)-Investment Decisions
  • 6. Fundamentals of Managerial Economics • Opportunity Cost Principle • Incremental Cost Principle • Time Perspective Principle a)-Short Run Principle b)-Long Run Principle • Discounting Principle • Equi-Marginal Principle
  • 7. Key Terms • demand • supply • demand schedule • supply schedule • law of demand • law of supply • diminishing marginal utility • supply curve • income effect • determinants of supply • substitution effect • change in supply • demand curve • change in quantity • determinants of demand supplied • normal goods • equilibrium price • inferior goods • equilibrium quantity • substitute good • surplus • complementary good • shortage • change in demand • price ceiling • change in quantity demanded • price floor 3-7
  • 8. Market • Interaction between buyers and sellers • Buyers demand goods • Sellers supply goods • Assumptions ▫ Standardized good ▫ Competitive market
  • 10. Demand • Schedule or curve • Amount consumers willing and able to purchase at a given price • Other things equal • Individual demand • Market demand • Law of Demand: -Other things equal, as price falls quantity demanded rises and price rises the quantity demanded falls
  • 11. Cont. • Exceptions to law of demand a)-Griffen goods b)-Snob affect c)-Future exceptation d)-Ignorance e)-Emergency • Demand function:- A mathematical represent of the quantity demanded and factors affecting it. Q=f{P,P0,W,F…….}
  • 12. Cont. Where, P=Price of commodity. P0 =Population W=Weather Condition F=Future Exception • Two levels: Individual Demand Market Demand
  • 13. Individual demand curve P 6 5 Price (per unit) P Qd 4 `5 10 3 4 20 3 35 2 2 55 1 D 1 80 0 Q 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Quantity Demanded (units per week)
  • 14. Individual Demand P 6 Change in Demand 5 Price (per unit) P Qd 4 Change in `5 10 Quantity 3 Demanded 4 20 3 35 2 D2 2 55 1 D1 D3 1 80 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Q Quantity Demanded (unit per week) 3-14
  • 15. Reasons for change (increase or decrease) in demand • Change in income. • Changes in taste, habits and preference. • Change in fashions and customs • Change in distribution of wealth. • Change in substitutes. • Change in demand of position of complementary goods. • Change in population. • Advertisement and publicity persuasion. • Change in the value of money. • Change in the level of taxation. • Expectation of future changes in price.
  • 16. Elasticity of demand • Elasticity means the degree of responsiveness. When talked in terms of demand, it tells the degree of change/response in demand w.r.t change in price. • In economics, it acts as a tool to measure/describe the steepness or flatness of curves or functions. • Price elasticity of demand is computed along a demand curve. It is a ratio of % changes in demand and price.
  • 17. Why it is imp.? Law of demand tells us that as the price of a commodity falls, the quantity demanded increases, and vice versa. It does not tell us by how much the quantity demanded increases, as a result of a certain fall in price or vice versa. Law of demand tells us only the direction of change in demand but not the rate at which the change takes place. To know this, we should know the elasticity of demand or Price elasticity of demand.
  • 18. • It can be represented in the following mathematical form: - Elasticity(e p) = % change in Quantity demanded % change in Price change in Price % change in p = 100. orignal Price % change in p = P ( ) 100 P
  • 19. Methods of measuring elasticity of demand. • Point elasticity method • Expenditure Outlay method • % method
  • 20. Types of Price Elasticity 1. Perfectly elastic 2. Perfectly Inelastic 3. Unity Elasticity 4. Relatively Elastic 5. Relatively Inelastic.
  • 21. Factors determining Price Elasticity of Demand • 1. Nature of the commodity • Extent of use • Range of substitutes • Income level • Proportion of income spent on the commodity • Urgency of demand • Durability • Purchase frequency
  • 22. Perfectly inelastic demand Where no reduction in price is needed to cause an increase in demand. The firm can sell the quantity in wants to sell at the prevailing price but none at all at even slightly higher price. The shape of the demand curve is horizontal. The elasticity is = infinite.
  • 23. Perfectly inelastic demand Even a large change in price, does not change the quantity demanded. Here the shape of the curve is vertical. Elasticity = 0
  • 24. Unity elasticity A proportionate change in price results in exactly the same proportional change in quantity demanded. Shape of the demand curve is a rectangular hyperbola. Elasticity = 1
  • 25. Relatively elastic demand A reduction in price leads to more than proportionate change in demand. Shape of the demand curve is flat. Elasticity > 1
  • 26. Relatively inelastic demand A decline in price leads to less than proportionate increase in demand. Shape of the demand curve is steep. Elasticity < 1
  • 27. Factors influencing elasticity of demand 1. Nature of the commodity. 2. Availability of Substitutes 3. Number of Uses 4. Consumer‟s Income. 5. Height of Price and Range of Price Change. 6. Proportion of Expenditure. 7. Durability of the Commodity. 8. Habit. 9. Complementary Goods. 10. Time. 11. Recurrence of Demand. 12. Possibility of Postponement.
  • 28. Supply & Elasticity of Supply
  • 29. Supply • Schedule or curve • Amount producers willing and able to sell at a given price • Individual supply • Market supply 3-29
  • 30. Law of Supply • Other things equal, as price rises the quantity supplied rises • Explanations: ▫ Revenue implications ▫ Marginal cost 3-30
  • 31. Individual Supply P 6 S1 5 Price (per unit) P Qs 4 `5 60 3 4 50 3 35 2 2 20 1 1 5 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Q Quantity Supplied (units per week) 3-31
  • 32. Determinants of Supply • Resource prices • Technology • Taxes and subsidies • Prices of other goods • Producer expectations • Number of sellers 3-32
  • 33. Individual Supply P 6 S3 S1 5 S2 Price (per units) P Qs 4 `5 60 3 4 50 3 35 2 2 20 1 1 5 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Q Quantity Supplied (units per week) 3-33
  • 34. Individual Supply P 6 S3 S1 5 Change in Quantity Supplied S2 Price (per units) P Qs 4 ` 5 60 3 4 50 3 35 2 Change in 2 20 1 Supply 1 5 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Q Quantity Supplied (units per week) 3-34
  • 35. Elasticity of supply Elasticity(e p) = % change in Quantity demanded % change in Price change in Price % change in p = 100. orignal Price % change in p = P ( ) 100 P •It is defined as the ratio of percentage change in quantity demanded and the percentage change in the price of the commodity. •It tells the degree of responsiveness of quantity supply due to change in its price.
  • 36. Types of Supply Elasticity 1. Perfectly Elastic 2. Perfectly Inelastic 3. Unit Elasticity 4. More than Elastic 5. Less than Elastic.
  • 37. Perfectly Elastic Supply •Where no reduction in price is needed to cause an increase in supply. •The firm can sell the quantity in wants to sell at the prevailing price but none at all at even slightly higher price. •The shape of the demand curve is horizontal. Price Perfectly elastic supply Es = infinity Quantity Supply
  • 38. Elastic Supply Curve •A change in price leads to more than proportionate change in supply. •Shape of the demand curve is flat. price ES > 1 Quantity Supply
  • 39. Perfectly inelastic supply •Even a large change in price, does not change the quantity supplied. •Here the shape of the curve is vertical. Es = 0 Price Quantity Supply
  • 40. Unit elastic •A proportionate change in price results in exactly the same proportional change in quantity supplied. •Shape of the demand curve is a rectangular hyperbola. ES = 1 Price Quantity Supply
  • 41. Inelastic supply •A change in price leads to less than proportionate change in supply. •Shape of the demand curve is flat. ES < 1 Price Quantity Supply
  • 43. Market Equilibrium • Equilibrium price and quantity • Surplus and shortage • Rationing function of price • Efficient allocation ▫ Productive efficiency ▫ Allocative efficiency 3-43
  • 44. Market Equilibrium 6 6,000 units S 5 Surplus P Qd P Qs Price (per units) ` 4 Price Floor `5 2,000 4 ` 5 12,000 4 4,000 4 10,000 3 3 7,000 ` 2 Price Ceiling 3 7,000 2 11,000 2 2 4,000 1 16,000 7,000 units 1 1,000 1 Shortage D 0 2 4 6 7 8 10 12 14 16 18 unitss of Corn (thousands per week) 3-44
  • 45. Market Equilibrium • Change in demand ▫ Shift of the demand curve • Change in supply ▫ Shift of the supply curve • Change in equilibrium price and quantity 3-45
  • 46. Market Equilibrium Price Quantity • Supply increase; ? Demand decrease • Supply decrease; Demand increase ? • Supply increase; Demand increase ? • Supply decrease; Demand decrease ? 3-46
  • 47. Demand Forecasting • Forecasting of demand is the art of predicting demand for a product or a service at some future data on the basis of certain present and past behavior patterns of some related events
  • 48. Objectives of demand forecasting • It enable to produce the required quantities at the right time • Arrange well in advance for the various factors of production viz. raw materials, equipment, machine accessories, labour, building etc. • It is an important aid in effective and efficient planning • It can also help management in reducing its dependence on chance • It is helpful in allocation of national resources • Helpful in setting sales target • Arrangement of funds
  • 49. Methods Of Demand Forecasting
  • 51. Meaning of production Its an activity that transforms inputs in to out puts.
  • 53. Production Function Inputs Process Output Land Product or Labour service generated Capital – value added
  • 54. The production function The production function can be mathematically written as Q=F(Lb,L,K,T,t….) Lb=land. L=labor. K=capital. T=Technology. t=time.
  • 55. Factors affecting productivity • Technology • Inputs • Labor • Capital • Machinery • Land • Raw material • power • Time period
  • 56. Classification of production function • Short term production function. (K & Lb are constant) • Long run production function. (Lb is constant)
  • 57. Analysis run attheone factor fixed in supply but all other • In the short of least short run factors capable of being changed • Reflects ways in which firms respond to changes in output (demand) • Can increase or decrease output using more or less of some factors but some likely to be easier to change than others • Increase in total capacity only possible in the long run • Law of variable proportion
  • 58. Analysis of the long run function • The long run is defined as the period of time taken to vary all factors of production ▫ By doing this, the firm is able to increase its total capacity – not just short term capacity ▫ Associated with a change in the scale of production ▫ The period of time varies according to the firm and the industry
  • 59. Alternatives of the long run production • Constant returns to the scale out put increases in the same proportion as the increase in the input. • Increasing return to scale out put increases by a greater proportion than the increase in inputs. • Decreasing returns to the scale. output increases in the lesser proportion than the increase in the inputs.
  • 60. Cost Concepts in Economics
  • 61. Agenda • Opportunity Cost • Long Versus Short-Run • Cost Concepts • Revenue Concepts • Production Rules in Short and Long-Run • Size in Long-Run
  • 62. Opportunity Costs • The value of the product not produced because an input was used for another purpose. • The income that would have been received if the input had been used in its most profitable alternative use. • It denotes the real cost of using an input.
  • 63. Short Versus Long Run • The short run is a period of time sufficiently short that only some of the variables can be changed. • The long run is a period of time that all variables can be changed.
  • 64. Types of Costs • Variable Costs ▫ These costs exist only if production occurs. ▫ E.g., fuel for tractor, seed, etc. • Fixed Costs ▫ These cost exist whether production occurs or not. ▫ In the long-run there are no fixed costs. ▫ Can be both cash and non-cash expenses. ▫ E.g., depreciation on tractors and buildings, etc.
  • 65. Types of Costs Cont. • Sunk Costs ▫ Is an expenditure that cannot be recovered. ▫ In essence, it becomes part of fixed costs. ▫ E.g., pre-harvest costs.
  • 66. Cost Concepts • Total Fixed Costs (TFC) ▫ The summation of all fixed and sunk costs to production. • Total Variable Costs (TVC) ▫ The summation of all variable costs to production. • Total Costs (TC) ▫ The summation of total fixed and total variable costs. ▫ TC=TFC+TVC
  • 67. Cost Concepts Cont. • Average Fixed Costs (AFC) ▫ The total fixed costs divided by output. • Average Variable Costs (AVC) ▫ The total variable costs divided by output. • Average Total Costs (ATC) ▫ The total costs divided by output. ▫ The summation of average fixed costs and average variable costs, i.e., ATC=AFC+AVC.
  • 68. Cost Concepts Cont. • Marginal Costs ▫ The change in total costs divided by the change in output.  TC/ Y ▫ The change in total variable costs divided by the change in output.  TVC/ Y
  • 69. Side Note on Marginal Cost • How can marginal cost equal both the change in total cost divided by the change in output and the change in total variable cost divided by the change in output when variable costs are not equal to total costs? ▫ Short answer: fixed costs do not change.
  • 70. Side Note on Marginal Cost Cont. • We want to show that MC = TVC/ Y when TVC TC. • We know that TC = TFC + TVC • This implies that TC = (TFC + TVC) • This implies that TC = TFC + TVC • We know that TFC = 0 • Hence, TC = TVC • Divide the previous by Y, we obtain • TC/ Y = TVC/ Y • MC = TVC/ Y
  • 71. Graphical Representation of Cost Concepts ` TC TVC TFC Y
  • 72. Graphical Representation of Cost Concepts Cont. ` MC ATC AVC AFC Y
  • 73. Notes on Costs • MC will meet AVC and ATC from below at the corresponding minimum point of each. ▫ Why? • As output increases AFC goes to zero. • As output increases, AVC and ATC get closer to each other.
  • 74. 74 Example of Cost Concepts X Y TFC TVC TC AFC AVC ATC MC 10 10 1000 1000 2000 100 100 200 16 30 1000 1600 2600 33.33 53.33 86.67 30 20 48 1000 2000 3000 20.83 41.67 62.50 22.22 22 65 1000 2200 3200 15.38 33.85 49.23 11.76 26 81 1000 2600 3600 12.35 32.10 45.45 25 32 96 1000 3200 4200 10.42 33.33 43.75 40 40 108 1000 4000 5000 9.26 37.04 46.30 66.67 50 116 1000 5000 6000 8.62 43.10 51.72 125 62 120 1000 6200 7200 8.33 51.67 60.00 300 76 117 1000 7600 8600 8.55 64.96 73.51 -466.67
  • 75. Revenue Concepts • Revenue (TR) is defined as the output price (py) multiplied by the quantity (Y). • Average revenue (AR) equals total revenue divided by output (Y), i.e., TR/Y, which equals py . • Marginal Revenue is the change in total revenue divided by the change in output, i.e., TR/ Y.
  • 76. Short-Run Decision Making • In the short-run, there are many ways to choose how to produce. ▫ Maximize output. ▫ Utility maximization of the manager. ▫ Profit maximization.  Profit ( ) is defined as total revenue minus total cost, i.e., = TR – TC.
  • 77. Short-Run Decision Making Cont. • When examining output, we want to set our production level where MR = MC when MR > AVC in the short-run. ▫ If MR AVC, we would want to shut down.  Why? ▫ If we can not set MR exactly equal to MC, we want to produce at a level where MR is as close as possible to MC, where MR > MC.
  • 78. Intuition for Setting MR = MC • Suppose MR < MC. • This implies that by producing more output, you have a greater addition of cost than you do revenue. ▫ Hence you would not make the change.
  • 79. Intuition for Setting MR = MC  Suppose MR > MC.  This implies that by producing more output, you have a greater addition of revenue than you do cost.  Hence you would make the change.  You would stop increasing output at the point where the trade-off in additional revenue is just equal to the trade-off in additional costs.
  • 80. Why Shutdown When MR < AVC • If MR < AVC, this implies that you are not bringing in enough revenue from each unit produced to cover your variable costs. • Hence you could minimize your loss if you were to shutdown.
  • 81. Why Produce When ATC > MR > AVC • When MR < ATC, the company is making a loss. ▫ Why would it produce? • Since the firm is making something above and beyond its variable cost, it can put some of that revenue towards fixed cost. ▫ This implies that it minimizes its loss by producing.
  • 82. Profit Scenario Graphically ` Profit MC MR = py ATC ATC AVC AFC Yprofit Y
  • 83. Loss Minimizing Graphically ` MC Loss ATC ATC AVC MR = py AFC Yloss Y
  • 84. Shutdown Decision Graphically ` If we did not produce: loss = B MC Loss = A + B ATC ATC B AVC MR = py A AFC Yloss Y
  • 85. Production Rules for the Long-Run • To maximize profits, the farmer should produce when selling price is greater than ATC at the production level where MC = MR. • To minimize losses, the farmer should not produce when selling price is less than ATC, i.e., shutdown the business.
  • 86. Note on Cost Concepts • The producer‟s supply curve is the part of the MC curve that is above the shutdown point.
  • 87. Long-Run Average Costs • The long run average cost (LRAC) curve is the envelope of the short run average cost curves when the size of the operation is allowed to increase or decrease. • Note that a short run average cost curve exists for every possible farm size, as defined by the amount of fixed input available.
  • 88. Long-Run Average Costs Cont. • In a competitive market, the long run optimal production will occur at the lowest point on the LRAC, i.e., economic profits are driven to zero.
  • 89. Size in the Long-Run • A measure of size in the long run between output and costs as farm size increases (EOS) is the following: ▫ EOS = percent change in costs divided by percent change in output value
  • 90. Size in the Long-Run Cont. • If this ratio of EOS is less than one, then there are decreasing costs to expanding production, i.e., increasing returns to size. • If this ratio is equal to one, then there are constant costs to expanding production, i.e., constant returns to size. • If this ratio is greater than one, then there are increasing costs to expanding production, i.e., decreasing returns to size.
  • 91. 91 Economies of Size • This exists when the LRAC is decreasing. • Also known as increasing returns to size. • Usually occurs because of full utilization of capital (tractors and buildings) and labor. • Also occurs because of discount pricing for buying in bulk and selling price benefits for selling large quantities.
  • 92. 92 Diseconomies of Size • This exists when the LRAC is increasing. • Also known as decreasing returns to size. • Usually occurs because a lack of managerial skills. • Also occurs because travel time increases as farm increases. ▫ Livestock: disease control and manure disposal. ▫ Crops: geographical distance away from each other.
  • 93. Market Structure • Market structure – identifies how a market is made up in terms of: ▫ The number of firms in the industry ▫ The nature of the product produced ▫ The degree of monopoly power each firm has ▫ The degree to which the firm can influence price ▫ Profit levels ▫ Firms‟ behaviour – pricing strategies, non-price competition, output levels ▫ The extent of barriers to entry ▫ The impact on efficiency
  • 94. Market Structure Perfect Pure Competition Monopoly More competitive (fewer imperfections)
  • 95. Market Structure Perfect Pure Competition Monopoly Less competitive (greater degree of imperfection)
  • 96. Main forms of Market Pure Perfect Monopoly Competition Monopolistic Competition Oligopoly Duopoly Monopoly The further right on the scale, the greater the degree of monopoly power exercised by the firm.
  • 97. Perfect Competition • One extreme of the market structure spectrum • Characteristics: ▫ Large number of firms ▫ Products are homogenous (identical) – consumer has no reason to express a preference for any firm ▫ Freedom of entry and exit into and out of the industry ▫ Firms are price takers – have no control over the price they charge for their product ▫ Each producer supplies a very small proportion of total industry output ▫ Consumers and producers have perfect knowledge about the market
  • 98. Perfect Competition Givenaverage the cost ofis the Thethis industry price firm AtThe MC is cost curve profit The assumption of is the output the maximisation,– shaped curve. standard ‘U’ additional demand producing theby the determined firm produces Cost/Revenue is(marginal) AC curve =profit. making units the atMR and the normal its MC at an cuts supply of MC industry MC output where of output. It (Q1). asis first (due run alaw of This at whole. levelfirm is a lowest point long to thethe This a because is falls a output The of fraction of the total industry rises mathematical relationship equilibriumreturns) then diminishing supplier within very small position. supply. industry and has no between marginal and average asthe output rises. AC values. control over price. They will sell each extra unit for the same price. Price therefore = MR and AR P = MR = AR Q1 Output/Sales
  • 99. Perfect Competition Diagrammatic representation Because the model assumes perfect knowledge,MC costs The assume a firm the firm Average and and makes Nowlower ACMarginal would Cost/Revenue MC gains that advantage nowlower some theexpected is for only a could form of firm to be imply be the modification to short timein the short run, form its product before others copy but price, or gains some earning abnormal profit MC1 the idea or are attracted to the remains the same. (AR>AC) represented a the of cost advantage (sayby new industry by method). What production the existence of grey area. AC abnormal profit. If new firms would happen? enter the industry, supply will increase, price will fall and the AC1 firm will be left making normal profit once again. P = MR = AR Abnormal profit AC1 P1 = MR1 = AR1 Q1 Q2 Output/Sales
  • 100. Monopolistic or Imperfect Competition • Where the conditions of perfect competition do not hold, „imperfect competition‟ will exist • Varying degrees of imperfection give rise to varying market structures • Monopolistic competition is one of these – not to be confused with monopoly!
  • 101. Monopolistic or Imperfect Competition • Characteristics: ▫ Large number of firms in the industry ▫ May have some element of control over price due to the fact that they are able to differentiate their product in some way from their rivals – products are therefore close, but not perfect, substitutes ▫ Entry and exit from the industry is relatively easy – few barriers to entry and exit ▫ Consumer and producer knowledge imperfect
  • 102. Monopolistic or Imperfect Competition Implications for the diagram: MC This is demandrunandfacing Cost/Revenue We assumeCost theQ1 and IfThe firm produces firm the a shortthat equilibrium Marginal Since the additional curve produceswillfirmdownward Averagea be willabeMC where MR = the Cost in£1.00 on position forreceived from sells firm unit for revenue the each (profit maximising output). average shape. falls, (on each unit sold However, same and the cost monopolistic market the the sloping with represents At because the products MR curve level, AR>AC this output AC structure. for from sales. average) lies under the AR earned each unit being and the firm makes in 40p x are differentiated 60p, curve. will make AR the firm abnormal profit (the grey Q1 in abnormal profit.will £1.00 some way, the firm shaded area). to sell extra only be able output by lowering Abnormal Profit price. £0.60 MR D (AR) Q1 Output / Sales
  • 103. Monopolistic or Imperfect Competition Implications for the diagram: MC Because there is relative Cost/Revenue freedom of entry and exit into the market, new firms will enter AC encouraged by the existence of abnormal profits. New entrants will increase supply causing price to fall. As price falls, the AR and MR curves shift inwards as revenue from each sale is now less. AR1 D (AR) MR1 MR Q1 Output / Sales
  • 104. Monopolistic or Imperfect Competition Implications for the diagram: MC Notice that the existence Cost/Revenue of more substitutes makes the new AR (D) curve more price elastic. The AC firm reduces output to a point where MC = MR (Q2). At this output AR = AC and the firm will make AR = AC normal profit. AR1 D (AR) MR1 MR Q2 Q1 Output / Sales
  • 105. Monopolistic or Imperfect Competition Implications for the diagram: MC This is the long run Cost/Revenue equilibrium position of a firm in monopolistic competition. AC AR = AC AR1 MR1 Q2 Output / Sales
  • 106. Monopolistic or Imperfect Competition • Some important points about monopolistic competition: ▫ May reflect a wide range of markets ▫ Not just one point on a scale – reflects many degrees of „imperfection‟ ▫ Examples?
  • 107. Monopolistic or Imperfect Competition • Restaurants • Plumbers/electricians/local builders • Solicitors • Private schools • Plant hire firms • Insurance brokers • Health clubs • Hairdressers • Funeral directors • Estate agents • Damp proofing control firms
  • 108. Monopolistic or Imperfect Competition • In each case there are many firms in the industry • Each can try to differentiate its product in some way • Entry and exit to the industry is relatively free • Consumers and producers do not have perfect knowledge of the market – the market may indeed be relatively localised. Can you imagine trying to search out the details, prices, reliability, quality of service, etc for every plumber in the UK in the event of an emergency??
  • 109. Oligopoly • Competition between the few ▫ May be a large number of firms in the industry but the industry is dominated by a small number of very large producers • Concentration Ratio – the proportion of total market sales (share) held by the top 3,4,5, etc firms: ▫ A 4 firm concentration ratio of 75% means the top 4 firms account for 75% of all the sales in the industry
  • 110. Oligopoly • Features of an oligopolistic market structure: ▫ Price may be relatively stable across the industry – kinked demand curve? ▫ Potential for collusion ▫ Behaviour of firms affected by what they believe their rivals might do – interdependence of firms ▫ Goods could be homogenous or highly differentiated ▫ Branding and brand loyalty may be a potent source of competitive advantage ▫ Non-price competition may be prevalent ▫ Game theory can be used to explain some behaviour ▫ AC curve may be saucer shaped – minimum efficient scale could occur over large range of output ▫ High barriers to entry
  • 111. Monopoly • Pure monopoly – where only one producer exists in the industry • In reality, rarely exists – always some form of substitute available! • Monopoly exists, therefore, where one firm dominates the market • Firms may be investigated for examples of monopoly power when market share exceeds 25% • Use term „monopoly power‟ with care!
  • 112. Monopoly • Monopoly power – refers to cases where firms influence the market in some way through their behaviour – determined by the degree of concentration in the industry ▫ Influencing prices ▫ Influencing output ▫ Erecting barriers to entry ▫ Pricing strategies to prevent or stifle competition ▫ May not pursue profit maximisation – encourages unwanted entrants to the market ▫ Sometimes seen as a case of market failure
  • 113. Monopoly • Origins of monopoly: ▫ Through growth of the firm ▫ Through amalgamation, merger or takeover ▫ Through acquiring patent or license ▫ Through legal means – Royal charter, nationalisation, wholly owned plc
  • 114. Monopoly • Summary of characteristics of firms exercising monopoly power: ▫ Price – could be deemed too high, may be set to destroy competition (destroyer or predatory pricing), price discrimination possible. ▫ Efficiency – could be inefficient due to lack of competition (X- inefficiency) or…  could be higher due to availability of high profits
  • 115. Monopoly • Innovation - could be high because of the promise of high profits, Possibly encourages high investment in research and development (R&D) • Collusion – possible to maintain monopoly power of key firms in industry • High levels of branding, advertising and non-price competition
  • 116. Monopoly • Problems with models – a reminder: ▫ Often difficult to distinguish between a monopoly and an oligopoly – both may exhibit behaviour that reflects monopoly power ▫ Monopolies and oligopolies do not necessarily aim for traditional assumption of profit maximisation ▫ Degree of contestability of the market may influence behaviour ▫ Monopolies not always „bad‟ – may be desirable in some cases but may need strong regulation ▫ Monopolies do not have to be big – could exist locally
  • 117. Monopoly Costs / Revenue This is curve for a monopolist Given both the short run and AR (D)the barriers to entry, MC long to equilibrium price the monopolist will be able to likelyrunbe relatively position for a monopoly exploit abnormal profits in to inelastic. Output assumed the £7.00 long profit entry to the be atrun as maximising output (note caution here – not all AC market is restricted. monopolists may aim Monopoly for profit maximisation!) Profit £3.00 MR AR Output / Sales Q1
  • 118. Monopoly Welfare Costs / Revenue implications of monopolies MC The higher in at competitive be A look back a the diagram for The price priceprice lower monopoly and would £7 output means that £3willlevels perfectunit with output reveal market competition with £7 per would be consumer AC that in is reduced, indicated by output equilibrium, price will be surplusat Q2. at Q1. lower levels Loss of consumer equal to the MC of production. the grey shaded area. On the face of it, consumers surplus We can look therefore at a face higher prices and less comparison of the differences choice in monopoly conditions £3 between price and output in a compared to more competitive competitive situation compared environments. to a monopoly. AR MR Output / Sales Q2 Q1
  • 119. Monopoly Welfare Costs / Revenue implications of monopolies MC The monopolist will be benefit £7 from additional producer affected by a loss of producer AC surplus shownto the grey equal by the grey shaded but…….. triangle rectangle. Gain in producer surplus £3 AR MR Output / Sales Q2 Q1
  • 120. Monopoly Welfare Costs / Revenue implications of monopolies MC The value of the grey shaded £7 triangle represents the total welfare loss to society – AC sometimes referred to as the ‘deadweight welfare loss’. £3 AR MR Output / Sales Q2 Q1
  • 121. National Income • The sum total of the values of all goods and services produced in a year It is the money value of the flow of goods and services available in an economy in a year • It refers to the money value of the flow of goods and services available annually in an economy. • National Income Committee of India 1951 defines National Income as follows:“ A national income estimate measures the volume of commodities and services turned out during a given period counted without duplication.” • Marshall‟s Definition:“The labor and capital resources of a country acting on its natural resources produce annually a certain net aggregate of commodities, material and immaterial including services of all kinds…. This is the true net annual income or revenue of the country or the national dividend.” • The income of a country to a specified period of time, say a year includes all types of goods and services which have an exchange value counting each one of them only once • Double counting If steel has been evaluated in industrial production, it should not be included while calculating the value of steel products, viz, machines and motor cars. To avoid double counting or multiple counting, two methods are used Final products method Value added method.
  • 122. N.I Concepts The following are the concepts of national income Gross National Product – GNP Net National Product – NNP Personal Income – PI Per capita Income – PCI • Gross National Product National Income is the sum total of values of all goods and services produced during a year The money value of this total output is known as Gross National Product – GNP Gross National Product Example: If A,B,C,D,… are goods and services and If a,b,c,d,…are their prices respectively The GNP is calculated as follows GNP= Axa+Bxb+Cxc+Dxd…. GNP is most frequently used national income concept It is statistically a simpler concept as it takes no account of depreciation and replacement problems • Net National Product - NNP: This refers to the net production of goods and services in a country during a year NNP is also called National Income at Market Prices We get NNP, by deducting the depreciation from GNP Therefore NNP = GNP - Depreciation
  • 123. • Personal Income - PI: Income earned by all the individuals and institutions during a year in a country The entire national income does not reach individuals and institutions A part of it goes by way of corporate taxes Undistributed profits Social security contributions People sometimes get incomes without any productive activity They are called Transfer Payments Example: Unemployment benefits, old age pensions etc. Such transfer payments are not included in the National Income However they are added to Personal Income PI is computed by using the following formula PI = National Income – (Corporate taxes, undistributed profits, social security contributions) + Transfer Payments • Per Capita Income – PCI: If the national income is divided by the total population, we get per capital income PCI = NI/Population PCI may be expressed either in money terms or in real terms
  • 124. NI – Methods of computation : There three methods of NI computation:- • Net Product method • Factor Income method • Expenditure method
  • 125. Inflation • “Inflation is nothing more than a sharp upward rise in price level.” • Too much money chasing, too few goods.” • Inflation is a state in which the value of money is falling i.e. price are rising.”
  • 126. KINDS OF INFLATION • On the basis of rate of inflation • On the basis of degree of control • On the basis of causes • Others
  • 127. CAUSES OF INFLATION • Demand pull inflation • Cost push inflation
  • 128. EFFECTS OF INFLATION • They add inefficiencies in the market, and make it difficult for companies to budget or plan long- term. • Uncertainty about the future purchasing power of money discourages investment and saving.
  • 129. EFFECTS OF INFLATION • There can also be negative impacts to trade from an increased instability in currency exchange prices caused by unpredictable inflation. • Higher income tax rates. • Inflation rate in the economy is higher than rates in other countries; this will increase imports and reduce exports, leading to a deficit in the balance of trade.
  • 130. Business Cycle • Business cycle or trade cycle is a part of the capitalistic economy. • The business cycle refers to fluctuation in economic activities such as levels of income, employment, prices and output, occurs more or less in regular time sequences. • Business cycle is characterized by upward and downward movement of economic activities. • In a business cycle, there are wave-like fluctuations in aggregate employment, income output and price level.
  • 131. Business cycle • The short-term variations in economic activity are known as BUSINESS CYCLE. • Economic history shows that the economy never grows in a smooth and even pattern. • Upward and downward movements in output, inflation, interest rates, and employment form the Business Cycles that characterizes all market economies
  • 132. Busines cycle • Business Cycles are the irregular expansions and contractions in economic activity. • Business Cycles are economy-wide fluctuations in total National Output, Income, and Employment, usually last for a period of 2 to 10 years, marked by widespread expansion or contraction in most sectors of the economy.
  • 133. 133 of 23 Phases of business cycle Business Cycle is typically divided into four phases: a) The recovery b) The prosperity c) The recession d) The depression
  • 134. Depression  Recession merges into depression when there is a general decline in economic activity.  There is considerable reduction in the production of goods and services, employment, income, demand and prices.  The general decline in economic activity leads to a fall in bank deposits.  When credit expansion stops, even business community is not willing to borrow.  Thus, a depression is characterized by mass unemployment – general fall in prices, wages, profits, interest rate, consumption expenditure, investment – bank loans and advances falling – factories close down – capital goods industries are also closed down.  During this phase, there will be pessimism leading to closing down of business firms.
  • 135. Recovery  Recovery denotes the turning point of business cycle from depression to prosperity.  There is a slow rise in output, employment, income and price – demand for commodities go up steadily.  There is increase in investment – bank and financial institutions are also willing to granting loans and advances.  Pessimism gives way to optimism.  The process of recovery becomes combative and leads to prosperity
  • 136. Prosperity  In this period, demand, output, employment and income are at a high level, they tend to raise prices.  But wages, salaries, interest rates, rentals and taxes do not rise in proportion to the rise in prices.  The gap between prices and cost increases - the margin of profit increases.  The increase of profit and the prospect of its continuance commonly cause a rapid rise in stock market values.  The economy is engulfed in waves of optimism.  Larger profit expectation further increase – investment which is helped by liberal bank credit.  This leads to peak or boom.
  • 137. of 23 Recession  Recession starts downward movement of economic activities from peak/boom.  It is a state in which there is general deceleration in the economic activity resulting in cuts in production and employment falling prices of stock market.  Banking and financial institutional loans and advances beginning to decline.  As a result profit margins decline further because costs starts overtaking prices.  Recession may be mild/severe – it lead to a sudden explosive situation emanating from banking system and stock markets.  Such experience of the United States in 1873, 1893, 1907, 1933 and 2007.
  • 138. Thank You for your Patience and Keen Interest.