The document provides an assessment of wildfire risk for the Lost Creek community. It analyzes various wildfire risk factors like ignition density, fire intensity, rate of spread, and home defensibility across different areas of Lost Creek. GIS maps are used to visualize the data. Home defensibility is rated based on homeowners' ability to implement wildfire risk reduction measures within 100-200 feet of their homes. The analysis finds that Lost Creek has a serious wildfire risk and many homeowners have limited ability to protect their homes individually. It identifies priority areas for wildfire mitigation based on a combination of wildfire risk factors and home defensibility ratings.

1. Lost Creek Wildfire AssessmentLost Creek Wildfire Assessment
Paul Schumann
Lost Creek Civic Organization
September 28, 2016

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Topics
Executive Summary
Research
Analysis
Conclusions
Maps
Appendix

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Executive Summary
The purposes of this research was to:
● Give homeowners in Lost Creek whose property is
adjacent a wildlands or natural area some
information about the risk they have of wildfire
spreading onto their property and potentially
damaging their home
● Give homeowners in the WUI (wildlands urban
interface) an idea about the defensibility of their
property to a wildfire
● Suggest priorities for mitigation of the wildfire risk
in the wildland areas adjacent to Lost Creek.
● Identify the owners of the wildlands whose
property is a high priority risk of wildfire
encroachment into Lost Creek residences.
● Provide an analysis that will become a key
component in Lost Creek's Fire Adapted
Communities Plan.
The following are the conclusions reached:
● Lost Creek has a serious wildfire risk
● Homeowners in Lost Creek in the WUI have limited
capability to protect their homes by themselves
● Because the City of Austin's Barton Creek
Wilderness Area in our WUI is also covered by the
Canyonlands Wildlife Preserve (BCP), there are
severe limitations as to what can be done and when,
this area should be planned first
● The combination of wildfire characteristics and
homeowner land defensibility appears to provide a
method to prioritize the areas of Lost Creek we need
to focus on

4. September 28, 2016 Lost Creek Civic Organization 4
Research
The purpose of this research was to give homeowners
in Lost Creek whose property is adjacent a wildlands or
natural area some information about the risk they have
of wildfire spreading onto their property and potentially
damaging their home and an idea about the
defensibility of their property to a wildfire. The second
purpose of this research was to suggest priorities for
mitigation of the wildfire risk in the wildland areas
adjacent to Lost Creek. The third purpose of this
research was to identify the owners of the wildlands
whose property is a high priority risk of wildfire
encroachment into Lost Creek residences. This analysis
will become a key component in Lost Creek's Fire
Adapted Communities Plan.
All the data used in this analysis came from three
sources:
City of Austin Development Map
(http://www.austintexas.gov/GIS/DevelopmentWebMap/Viewer.aspx) This
map requires Internet Explorer and Silverlight. The
Purpose of the Planning and Zoning Department is to
provide planning, preservation and design services to
make Austin the most livable city in the country.
The City of Austin is committed to improving the
experience of residents, small businesses, developers
and other stakeholders who need planning-related
services. The Planning and Zoning Department (PAZ)
has undergone an extensive process to lay the
groundwork to making necessary changes for Austin's
future.
Texas Wildfire Risk Portal
(https://www.texaswildfirerisk.com/) TxWRAP is the
primary mechanism for the Texas A&M Forest Service
to deploy risk information and create awareness about
wildfire issues across the state. TxWRAP is comprised
of a suite of applications tailored to support specific
workflow and information requirements for the public,
local community groups, government officials,
professional hazard-mitigation planners, and wildland
fire managers. Collectively these applications will
provide the baseline information needed to support
mitigation and prevention efforts across the state.
This portal has computer models that generate data
with 100 foot resolution on 22 variables in four
categories: wildfire risks, wildfire behavior, landscape
characteristics and historical wildfire occurrence.

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The complete report generated by the portal for Lost
Creek and 3 mile circumference around Lost Creek is
available at http://tinyurl.com/hcrnyut. To accomplish
the purpose of this research, the analysis had to be at a
street level customized to Lost Creek.
Travis County Property Search
(http://www.traviscad.org/property_search.html)
To address the defensibility of homes in Lost Creek at
the Wildlands – Urban Interface (WUI), the principles of
Firewise (http://www.firewise.org/) were applied.
Brush, grass and forest fires don’t have to be disasters.
NFPA’s Firewise Communities Program encourages
local solutions for safety by involving homeowners in
taking individual responsibility for preparing their homes
from the risk of wildfire. Firewise is a key component of
Fire Adapted Communities – a collaborative approach
that connects all those who play a role in wildfire
education, planning and action with comprehensive
resources to help reduce risk.
The program is co-sponsored by the USDA Forest
Service, the US Department of the Interior, and the
National Association of State Foresters.
To save lives and property from wildfire, NFPA's
Firewise Communities program teaches people how to
adapt to living with wildfire and encourages neighbors
to work together and take action now to prevent losses.
We all have a role to play in protecting ourselves and
each other from the risk of wildfire.
The concept of the home ignition zone was developed
by USDA Forest Service fire scientist Jack Cohen in the
late 1990s, following some breakthrough experimental
research into how homes ignite due to the effects of
radiant heat. For more than 15 years, NFPA’s wildfire
safety recommendations have been shaped by this fire
science and because of it, is able to provide actionable
guidance for homeowners to help them prepare
homes/home landscapes to resist wildfire.
The primary goal for Firewise landscaping is fuel
reduction — limiting the amount of flammable
vegetation and materials surrounding the home and
increasing the moisture content of remaining
vegetation. The home itself and everything around it up
to 100 – 200 feet is known as the ‘home ignition zone'.
In areas across the country where the risk of wildfire is
high, the home ignition zone extends up to 200 feet

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beyond the actual home structure. Within this 200 foot
area, there are three zones:
Zone 1 encircles the structure and all its attachments
(wooden decks, fences, and boardwalks) for at least 30
feet on all sides. Note: the 30-foot number comes from
the very minimum distance, on flat ground, that a wood
wall can be separated from the radiant heat of large
flames without igniting. In this area:
● Plants should be carefully spaced, low-growing
and free of resins, oils and waxes that burn easily.
● Mow the lawn regularly. Prune trees up six to ten
feet from the ground.
● Space conifer trees 30 feet between crowns. Trim
back trees that overhang the house.
● Create a ‘fire-free’ area within five feet of the
home, using non-flammable landscaping materials
and/or high-moisture-content annuals and
perennials.
● Remove dead vegetation from under deck and
within 10 feet of house.
● Consider fire-resistant material for patio furniture,
swing sets, etc.
● Remove firewood stacks and propane tanks; they
should not be located in this zone.
● Water plants, trees and mulch regularly.
● Consider xeriscaping if you are affected by water-use
restrictions.
Zone 2 is 30 to 100 feet from the home, and plants in
this zone should be low-growing, well irrigated and less
flammable. In this area:
● Leave 30 feet between clusters of two to three trees,
or 20 feet between individual trees.
● Encourage a mixture of deciduous and coniferous
trees.
● Create ‘fuel breaks’, like driveways, gravel walkways
and lawns.
● Prune trees up six to ten feet from the ground.

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Zone 3 is 100 to 200 feet from the home and this area
should be thinned, although less space is required than
in Zone 2. NOTE: Because of other factors such as
topography, the recommended distances to mitigate for
radiant heat exposure actually extend between 100 to
200 feet from the home – on a site-specific basis. In
this area:
● Remove smaller conifers that are growing
between taller trees. Remove heavy accumulation
of woody debris.
● Reduce the density of tall trees so canopies are
not touching.
0 30 ft 100 ft 200 ft
This three zone ignition model was used to
determine defensibility of the home depending
upon the distance of the house from the WUI. If
the homeowner could only apply zone 1
recommendations to his or her own property,
then the defensibility was rated low because
the homeowner is dependent upon the
woodlands owner for complete defensibility. If
the homeowner could apply all the
recommendations for all three zones, he or she
can adopt the best practices to lower the risk
that a wildfire would damage their home.
All property owners, regardless of the number
of zones they can apply to their property, and
even if their house not on an WUI, need to
address the "little things" first: NFPA* advises
property owners to start with the house and
work their way out. Having a nonflammable
roof covering and assembly adds an enormous
safety measure. Keeping roofs and gutters
clean and clear of leaves or needles is critical
to minimizing ignition from embers. Flammable
attachments (e.g., untreated wooden decks)
* Home Ignition Zone Structure
Assessment Guide in Appendix

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are very vulnerable to ignition and can carry fire to the
main structure. Keep flat surfaces clear of debris. Clean
out any leaves, needles or stored material that could
burn from under decks, porches or eaves. During this
high fire danger season, remove large potential heat
sources such as piles of firewood, spare building
materials, vehicles - anything that could catch embers
or ignite by flames in the grass needs to be as far away
from dwellings as possible.
For reference purposes only I have named 9 zones in
Lost Creek with WUI as shown in the graphic adjacent.
These zones in combination with street names should
help identify problem areas.
The green areas in this map represent the Barton
Creek Wilderness Area and are owned by the City of
Austin, There is an additional overlay on this area called
the Balcones Canyonlands Wildlife Preserve (next
page).
The Balcones Canyonlands Preserve (BCP) is not one
single tract of land but a system of preserves that exists
as a multi-agency conservation effort operating under a

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Lost Creek

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regional 10(a) permit issued under the Endangered
Species Act by the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service
(USFW).
The permit was issued jointly to the BCP's two
managing partners, the City of Austin and Travis
County, in 1996, though several other organizations
own and manage land dedicated to the BCP. Ultimately,
the goal is to set aside 30,428 acres in western Travis
County as habitat for eight endangered species-two
neotropical migratory songbirds and six karst
invertebrates-and 27 species of concern.
This overlay which covers all of Y Canyon and part of
Barton Creek zones named in Lost Creek. This severely
limits what and when any wildfire mitigation efforts can
be done in the BCP.
The ownership of the WUI land is shown in the adjacent
graphic. The private land is owned by Hill County Golf
Inc.(109602), Johnson Trust No. 1 (109610), and Dan
Marshall II et al (109592). Travis County Property
Search showed unknown owner for 816142.
All the results are shown graphically in maps. These are
shown full page for improved resolution.
Private Lost Creek Limited District City of Austin
Ownership of Land
Unknown
Travis County Trustee

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Analysis
Wildfire parameters that apply to all of Lost Creek
Several of the wildfire parameters apply to all of Lost
Creek. These are shown in maps 1 – 5.
● Wildland Urban Interface (WUI): 0.5 to 3
homes/acre. Depicts where humans and their
structures meet or intermix with wildland fuel
● WUI Response Index:Most Negative Impact.
Represents a rating of the potential impact of a
wildfire on values and assets
● Wildfire Threat: Moderate to high. Likelihood of a
wildfire occurring or burning into an area
● Dozer Operability Rating: Significant operating
limitations to inoperable in almost all of the WUI.
This is the result of the homes being built on
ridges with steep slopes behind them. The
implication is that a wildfire would have to fought
by hand.
The map adjacent shows Lost Creek aerial view on
which all the wildfire data is plotted.

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● Surface Fuels*: FM9 HWD - Hardwood litter (fluffy),
FM 8 – Closed timber litter (compact), and GS 2 –
Moderate load, dry climate grass. Contains the
parameters needed to compute surface fire behavior
characteristics.
* In the wildlands.

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Wildfire parameters that vary within Lost Creek
Many of the wildfire parameters indicate differences
within Lost Creek. These are shown in maps 6 – 9.
● Ignition Density: Low to Very High. Likelihood of a
wildfire starting based on historical ignition
patterns
● Fire Intensity: From low to high/very high.
Quantifies the potential fire intensity for an area by
orders of magnitude
● Rate of Spread: 5/10 chains per hour to 30/40
chains per hour* (5.5 to 44 feet per minute).
Represents the speed with which a fire moves in a
horizontal direction across the landscape
● Fire Type: Surface fire to canopy fire. Represents
the potential fire type (surface or canopy) under
the extreme percentile weather category
* I chain is 66 feet so 5 chains per hour is 5.5 feet per minute
Ignition Density

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Defensibility of homes
Measured by how many of the three ignition zones
specified in Firewise, the rating of homes on the WUI
ranged from Low (red) to Medium (orange) to High
(blue) (Map 10)
Summary by Area
The data on the maps are summarized in a table on the
next page.
The percentage numbers are representative of the
scale of the legend on the maps:
● Ignition Density: 1 to 7, low to very high
● Fire Intensity: 1 to 5, very low to very high
● Defensibility: 1 to 3, Zone 1 only – all three zones
For example an average ignition density in an area of
4.5 would be 64% of the scale.

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Area Ignition
Density
Fire
Intensity
Rate of
Spread
Fire type Defensibility
of Homes
Number of
Homes
Barton Creek 43% 90% 33 – 44 ft/min Canopy 59% 13
Barton Creek
North
50% 90% 55 – 165
ft/min
Canopy 100% 4
Barton Creek
South
14% 88% 33 – 44 ft/min Canopy
Some Surface
47% 15
Barton Creek SW 14% 90% 33 – 44 ft/min Canopy 33% 6
Barton Creek
West
28% 80% 33 – 44 ft/min Canopy 33% 8 + condos
Big Canyon 28% 88% 33 – 44 ft/min Canopy 44% 22
Country Club 28% 88% 55 – 165
ft/min
Canopy 100% 21
Cypress Canyon 21% 90% 33 – 44 ft/min Canopy 54% 53
Indian Canyon 71% 90% 33 – 44 ft/min Canopy 50% 34
Marshal Ranch 100% 85% 33 – 44 ft/min Canopy
Some Surface
37% 21
Sedgefield
Canyon
43% 90% 33 – 44 ft/min Canopy
Some Surface
50% 32
Y Canyon 93% 90% 33 – 44 ft/min Canopy
Some Surface
45% 66
Y Canyon South 43% 90% 33 – 44 ft/min Canopy 64% 23

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The table on the following page displays the results
based on ranking – what area's had the worst to best
conditions. In order to compare all of the results,
defensibility was changed to vulnerability so that the
number 1 ranking was the least defensible.
The page following the table shows the total score for
each area of Lost Creek assuming all the parameters
are weighted equally, i.e. each parameter is of equal
importance. Individuals in the community might weigh
the factors different.
Using this scoring method, the top four rated areas are:
1. Y Canyon
2. Marshall Ranch*
3. Indian Canyon
4. Cypress Canyon
* Marshall Ranch has been modified since these maps were
created. The top of the ridge was bulldozed in preparation of
development.

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Rank Ignition Density Fire Intensity Spread Rate Vulnerability Number of Homes
1 Marshall Ranch Barton Creek
Barton Creek North
Barton Creek SW
Cypress Canyon
Indian Canyon
Sedgefield Canyon
Y Canyon
Y Canyon South
Barton Creek North
Country Club
Barton Creek SW
Barton Creek
Y Canyon
2 Y Canyon * * Marshal Ranch Cypress Canyon
3 Indian Canyon Big Canyon Indian Canyon
4 Barton Creek North Y Canyon Sedgefield Canyon
5 Barton Creek
Sedgefield Canyon
Barton Creek South Y Canyon South
* All the rest tied for 2nd

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BartonCreek
BartonCreekNorth
BartonCreekSouth
BartonCreekSW
BartonCreekWest
BigCanyon
CountryClub
CypressCanyon
IndianCanyon
MarshalRanch
SedgefieldCanyon
YCanyon
YCanyonSouth
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Summary of Risks
Number of Homes
Vulnerability
Rate of Spread
Fire Intensity
Ignition Density
Area in Lost Creek
TotalScore

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Conclusions
The following are the conclusions reached:
● Lost Creek has a serious wildfire risk. Even
though the overall risk of a wildfire is only
moderate to high, the consequences of a wildfire
due to a large WUI are extremely large. There are
about 310 of the 1,250 homes in Lost Creek in the
WUI.
● Homeowners in Lost Creek in the WUI have
limited capability to protect their homes by
themselves. On average, only about 50% of the
protection required by Firewise can be
implemented by the homeowners themselves. As
a result, we are dependent on the adjacent
property landowners to provide the full protection
required. These land owners fall in three
categories – City of Austin, Lost Creek Limited
District and private. We only control the Limited
District.
● While we are not in a drought period now, it can
return quickly, so we must plan and act.
● Because the City of Austin's Barton Creek
Wilderness Area in our WUI is also covered by the
Canyonlands Wildlife Preserve (BCP), there are
severe limitations as to what can be done and
when, this WUI should be planned first. This will
require a deep engagement with possibly the city,
county, state and federal officials. Houses, that
were established before the BCP and lives need
to be protected as well as wildlife.
● The combination of wildfire characteristics and
homeowner land defensibility appears to provide a
method to prioritize the areas of Lost Creek we
need to focus on. Given an equal weighting of the
ranking of the characteristics, the following area
priorities emerge with adjacent property owner:
➔ Y Canyon (City of Austin)
➔ Marshall Tract (Dan Marshal)
➔ Indian Canyon (LCLD)
➔ Cypress Canyon (LCLD)
If the community decides it would like to weight the
variables differently, I will accommodate that analysis.

20. September 28, 2016 Lost Creek Civic Organization 20
Maps
1. Lost Creek
2. WUI
3. WUI Response Index
4. Dozer Operability Rating
5. Surface Fuels
6. Ignition Density
7. Fire Intensity
8. Rate of Spread
9. Fire Type
10.Defensibility of Homes

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1. Lost Creek

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2. WUI

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3. WUI Response Index

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4. Dozer Operating Rating

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5. Surface Fuels

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6. Ignition Density

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7. Fire Intensity

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8. Rate of Spread

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9. Fire Type

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10. Defensibility of Homes
Red – Low
Orange – Medium
Blue - High

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Appendix

32. September 28, 2016 Lost Creek Civic Organization 32
Paul Schumann
President
Lost Creek Civic Organization
3300 Bee Cave Road, Suite 650 #1152, Austin TX
78746
512.632.6586
info@lostcreekcivicorganization.org
Www.lostcreekcivicorganization.org
https://www.facebook.com/lostcreekcivicorganization/
@CivicOrg