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No Time to Lose: 
Of infectious disease, science, 
politics and institutions 
Peter Piot 
ESCAIDE 
Stockholm 
5.11.2013 
Improving health worldwide 
www.lshtm.ac.uk
My lessons from Ebola, 1976 
• Time , place, person! 
• Poverty driving disease 
• The power and challenges of international 
collaboration 
• EIS : US field epidemiology 
• Good intentions can be dangerous
Global HIV prevalence in adults, 1985 
UNAIDS/WHO, 2006
Prevalence of HIV Infection,2012 
Piot and Quinn, N Engl J Med 2013; 368:2210
Lessons from STD and HIV research 
• The power of combining epidemiology with 
clinical and laboratory sciences 
• Pre-eminence of social determinants, 
economics, politics and human rights 
• Opportunities and challenges of international 
collaboration 
• Europe needs a CDC 
• Weak EU support for global health research
Non-viral resistance 
• Experts: in public health and health services, 
essential medicines, international 
development 
• Institutions: development agencies, World 
Bank, European Commission, WHO, Unicef 
• Politicians: Ministers of Health and of Finance 
• Denial about HIV : e.g. President Mbeki 
• Lack of ambition
“the brutal fact was that those who 
could pay for Africa’s AIDS therapy - 
the pharmaceutical industry by way 
of price cuts, and rich-country tax 
payers by way of foreign aid – are 
very unlikely ... to do so” 
(W McGreevy, World Bank,1998)
Treatment Action Campaign (TAC)
Leadership 
Former President Fernando Henrique 
Cardoso of Brazil. 
1988 Drugs for 
opportunistic 
infections 
provided 
1991 Zidovudine 
provided 
1996 Free and 
widespread 
distribution of 
ARV
UN Secretary- 
General Kofi Annan, 
Al Gore, Vice President 
of the USA, chaired the 
first debate on AIDS as a 
major security issue at the 
UN Security Council in 
January 2000. 
UN Photo
Prices (US$/year) of antiretroviral 
regimen in Uganda: 1998-2003
UNITED NATIONS GENERAL ASSEMBLY 
SPECIAL SESSION ON HIV/AIDS 
25 - 27 JUNE2001 
United Nations
Resources available for HIV in low- and middle-income 
UNAIDS Source: UNAIDS, 2010 23 
October 14, 2014 
countries, 1986-2010
People on ART in low and middle income countries 
(UNAIDS,2012)
Source: UNAIDS, 2011
Lessons from the AIDS response 
• Evidence: both size of the problem and of solutions 
• Human rights as driver 
• Unified strategy 
• Political strategy 
• Bring solutions 
• A brilliant coalition 
• Activism by people affected 
• Never take no for an answer!
Lessons from the chameleon 
• Focus on your goal 
• Be flexible, while sticking to goal 
• Constantly process intelligence 
• One step at a time 
• Timing is everything
How AIDS invented Global 
Health 
(A.Brandt, NEJM 2013) 
• Disrupted divide between prevention and 
treatment 
• New forms of disease advocacy and activism 
• New global funding 
• Changed the cost of essential medicines 
• Recognised basic human rights 
• Major boost for global health research and 
academic interest
• 
•
HIV incidence and deaths 
England, 1981-2010 (PHE,2012)
New HIV infections 2001-2012
In some countries the entire AIDS 
treatment budget comes from 
international sources 
Percentage of care and treatment expenditure from international sources 
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 
Democratic Republic of the Congo 
Rwanda 
Central African Republic 
Niger 
Eritrea 
Malawi 
Guinea-Bissau 
Mozambique 
Guinea 
Mali 
Cote d'Ivoire 
Nigeria 
Sierra Leone 
Burkina Faso 
Kenya 
Togo 
Ghana 
Burundi 
Uganda 
Cameroon 
Swaziland 
Senegal 
Benin 
Gabon 
Chad 
Angola 
Morocco 
Lesotho 
Botswana 
Congo 
Egypt 
Seychelles 
Algeria
Efficacy of primary and secondary ARV-based 
TDF-2 FTC/TDF 63% (22; 83) 
iPrEx FTC/TDF 42% (15; 63) 
0% 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100% 
Partners PrEP FTC/TDF 
Partners PrEP TDF 
73% (49; 85) 
CAPRISA 004 TNF gel 39% (6; 60) 
FEM PrEP FTC/TDF 
0% (-69; 41) 
prevention studies 
62% (34; 78) 
VOICE TDF 
96% (77; 99) 
HPTN 052
100 
80 
60 
40 
20 
0 
Percent 
The HIV Treatment Cascade 
Piot and Quinn, NEJM 2013; 
United States 
Mozambique
How well equipped is Europe for the 
next challenges? 
• New health challenges will emerge 
• Many countries have weak institutional capacity 
• Financial crisis has weakened Europe’s public 
health and response capacity 
• Challenges beyond infectious diseases 
• Use regional funds to strengthen public health 
institutions 
• Need to expand mandate of ECDC
Emerging infections
Declan B. Polio risk looms over Europe. Nature 2013; 502: 601
Europe needs a strong, 
autonomous Centre for 
Disease Control and 
Prevention , working with 
strong autonomous national 
Centres, addressing both 
infectious and chronic diseases
Science 
Empowerment 
Development 
Politics Services
www.notimetolose-book.com

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Keynote address: 'No time to lose: of infectious diseases, science, politics and institutions’, Prof. Peter Piot, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK (ESCAIDE 2013)

  • 1. No Time to Lose: Of infectious disease, science, politics and institutions Peter Piot ESCAIDE Stockholm 5.11.2013 Improving health worldwide www.lshtm.ac.uk
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5. My lessons from Ebola, 1976 • Time , place, person! • Poverty driving disease • The power and challenges of international collaboration • EIS : US field epidemiology • Good intentions can be dangerous
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9. Global HIV prevalence in adults, 1985 UNAIDS/WHO, 2006
  • 10. Prevalence of HIV Infection,2012 Piot and Quinn, N Engl J Med 2013; 368:2210
  • 11.
  • 12. Lessons from STD and HIV research • The power of combining epidemiology with clinical and laboratory sciences • Pre-eminence of social determinants, economics, politics and human rights • Opportunities and challenges of international collaboration • Europe needs a CDC • Weak EU support for global health research
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15. Non-viral resistance • Experts: in public health and health services, essential medicines, international development • Institutions: development agencies, World Bank, European Commission, WHO, Unicef • Politicians: Ministers of Health and of Finance • Denial about HIV : e.g. President Mbeki • Lack of ambition
  • 16. “the brutal fact was that those who could pay for Africa’s AIDS therapy - the pharmaceutical industry by way of price cuts, and rich-country tax payers by way of foreign aid – are very unlikely ... to do so” (W McGreevy, World Bank,1998)
  • 18. Leadership Former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso of Brazil. 1988 Drugs for opportunistic infections provided 1991 Zidovudine provided 1996 Free and widespread distribution of ARV
  • 19. UN Secretary- General Kofi Annan, Al Gore, Vice President of the USA, chaired the first debate on AIDS as a major security issue at the UN Security Council in January 2000. UN Photo
  • 20. Prices (US$/year) of antiretroviral regimen in Uganda: 1998-2003
  • 21. UNITED NATIONS GENERAL ASSEMBLY SPECIAL SESSION ON HIV/AIDS 25 - 27 JUNE2001 United Nations
  • 22.
  • 23. Resources available for HIV in low- and middle-income UNAIDS Source: UNAIDS, 2010 23 October 14, 2014 countries, 1986-2010
  • 24.
  • 25. People on ART in low and middle income countries (UNAIDS,2012)
  • 27. Lessons from the AIDS response • Evidence: both size of the problem and of solutions • Human rights as driver • Unified strategy • Political strategy • Bring solutions • A brilliant coalition • Activism by people affected • Never take no for an answer!
  • 28.
  • 29. Lessons from the chameleon • Focus on your goal • Be flexible, while sticking to goal • Constantly process intelligence • One step at a time • Timing is everything
  • 30. How AIDS invented Global Health (A.Brandt, NEJM 2013) • Disrupted divide between prevention and treatment • New forms of disease advocacy and activism • New global funding • Changed the cost of essential medicines • Recognised basic human rights • Major boost for global health research and academic interest
  • 32. HIV incidence and deaths England, 1981-2010 (PHE,2012)
  • 33. New HIV infections 2001-2012
  • 34. In some countries the entire AIDS treatment budget comes from international sources Percentage of care and treatment expenditure from international sources 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Democratic Republic of the Congo Rwanda Central African Republic Niger Eritrea Malawi Guinea-Bissau Mozambique Guinea Mali Cote d'Ivoire Nigeria Sierra Leone Burkina Faso Kenya Togo Ghana Burundi Uganda Cameroon Swaziland Senegal Benin Gabon Chad Angola Morocco Lesotho Botswana Congo Egypt Seychelles Algeria
  • 35.
  • 36. Efficacy of primary and secondary ARV-based TDF-2 FTC/TDF 63% (22; 83) iPrEx FTC/TDF 42% (15; 63) 0% 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100% Partners PrEP FTC/TDF Partners PrEP TDF 73% (49; 85) CAPRISA 004 TNF gel 39% (6; 60) FEM PrEP FTC/TDF 0% (-69; 41) prevention studies 62% (34; 78) VOICE TDF 96% (77; 99) HPTN 052
  • 37. 100 80 60 40 20 0 Percent The HIV Treatment Cascade Piot and Quinn, NEJM 2013; United States Mozambique
  • 38.
  • 39. How well equipped is Europe for the next challenges? • New health challenges will emerge • Many countries have weak institutional capacity • Financial crisis has weakened Europe’s public health and response capacity • Challenges beyond infectious diseases • Use regional funds to strengthen public health institutions • Need to expand mandate of ECDC
  • 41. Declan B. Polio risk looms over Europe. Nature 2013; 502: 601
  • 42. Europe needs a strong, autonomous Centre for Disease Control and Prevention , working with strong autonomous national Centres, addressing both infectious and chronic diseases
  • 43. Science Empowerment Development Politics Services