Key Point Message to Attendees on " Global Turbulence in Oil & Gas Sector and the Road Ahead for Sustenance to Petroleum Industries ."
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Opening remarks by Event Chairman , Mahendra Kumar Rastogi Vice President : Inspection & Reliability , Bharat Oman Refineries in 3rd Asean Refining & Petrochemical Forum 2017 held in Hotel Pullman King Power in Bangkok , Thiland
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Key Point Message to Attendees on " Global Turbulence in Oil & Gas Sector and the Road Ahead for Sustenance to Petroleum Industries ."
- 2. Why, Globally Oil & Gas sector particularly petroleum industries are in doldrums ? Lower crude prices Competition from FLNG , tight crude / shale gas and new refineries Poor demand of petroleum products due to market saturation Ageing of Equipment causing frequent shutdown / catastrophes Tighter regulation on spills & emissions IIOT Digitization: Missing reliability of data & analytics resulting GIGO Retirement & shortage of skill manpower Lack of reliable expertise Poor margin Increased maintenance and operating cost Lack of funds for integration of refineries with petrochemicals Mandatory regulation for high quality products (Euro V) Global Warming & Climate of Change and impact of emerging solar energy
- 3. . Low crude price an opportunity to India downstream industries both refineries & Petrochemicals India is Oil & Gas hungry : Lowest per capita consumption
- 4. Changing Global Trade Global Turbulence in Oil & Gas Sector
- 5. Changing Global Trade : North America largest upcoming steam cracking capacity by 2016-21 followed by Middle East Global Turbulence in Oil & Gas Sector
- 6. Global Turbulence in Oil & Gas Sector Changing Global Trade : Strong growth in India expected over the next 10 years though demand still be smaller than China
- 11. If we are not doing the “right” things and are being highly efficient, we may just be doing the “wrong” things faster resulting no or poor effectiveness RBI/FFS need Expertize with diligence
- 13. RBI optimization, delaying maintenance / repairs, reducing corrosion inhibitors , changing operating condition, processing opportunity crude, cutting headcount, these decisions if taken without thought and analytics , can increase corrosion risk leading to downtime, uncontrolled releases and catastrophic failures or even total termination of ageing facility Cost Reduction & consequences
- 17. Ageing Assets : Learning from Past Failures Replacement will cost $ 12000 Billion which can break the backbone of strongest Economy
- 18. Ageing Assets &Frequent Catastrophes
- 24. MIQA needs Proactive M&I Culture in Ageing Plant For the proactive culture to survive over the long term, it takes significant management energy as well as a strong commitment from all levels of the organization Ensure Integrity & Reliability
- 25. MIQA, MOC & IOW Implementation
- 27. There is a misconception that mature assets are unreliable, unsafe and inefficient, but with a robust and proactive asset integrity management strategy in place , case to case basis these assets can be made efficient with enhanced life which need expertize to understand their in-service behavior and performance under top driven reliability culture in an organization
- 29. As per World Economic Forum , renewables achieved cost parity with fossils in more than 30 countries without subsidy
- 31. .
Editor's Notes
- All above resulting increased risk, more cost and high level of complexities to optimize performance of facilities, assets and workforce. However, in Asia, fate of downstream industries is differing region to region. Middle East is fully saturated and low oil price has broken the backbone of OPEC countries like Saudi Arab & Iran except USA which has become exporter instead importing earlier due to discovery of shale crude/gas . South East Asian countries including China are fully saturated in consumption of petroleum and facing the threat of big competition. However, in India, where per capita consumption of petroleum product is still lowest in the world taking the full advantage of low oil price regime and its economy shall grow since it imports most of its consumption of petroleum from outside. Falling oil prices and decline in consumption of petroleum products reducing the margin on one side and increasing maintenance cost due to outages / catastrophes on account of ageing of equipment. This, also causing poor image of company, penal action / pressure from regulators as well as public and politics which is a big threat and challenge to petroleum industries for its sustenance. World over, petroleum industries are in vicious circle at one side low price of product and other side rising maintenance cost and tighter regulations creating a situation of no way out. It is difficult and panic situation, if these off shore or on shore petroleum assets lack needy repairs or maintenance and are not being taken care due to want of funds, these assets will end forever due to natural degradation forces since as you know "Time & Tide wait for None".
- Today, globally more than 70% downstream static equipment in petroleum refineries, petrochemicals and pipelines are victim of ageing either due to poor condition or because of expiry of design life. These assets are victim of poor design, inefficient construction practices adopted in the past, mal operation and poor maintenance causing faster corrosion & metallurgical degradation and fatigue failure. In this difficult time, if these ageing assets are ignored or not being taken care, they will die forever and this will result the total doldrums of world economy because heavy expenditure shall be needed to rebuild them or developing alternates by shifting the other source of clean energy like solar, hydrogen fuel and nuclear energy. This can change the total scenario of the world politics & economy since rebuilding can break the backbone of even most developed economy of the world.
- Monitoring of ageing assets and quantifying the damages are not possible all the time due to constraints of accessibility, limitation of NDT technologies, lack of expertise, unwillingness of management for shutdown and lack of funding. Frequent outages of equipment, tighter regulations, awareness of environment in public and politics, rising maintenance cost, low oil prices and tough competition from FLNG & shale gas are matter of great concern to all upstream, midstream and also downstream petroleum industries. Decision on repair or replacement or salvaging the equipment is very crucial and a serious concern w.r.t. cost and time. For the sustenance, all oil and gas industries are seeking the outside expertize for the AIM & RBI of static assets for sustaining production and optimizing the maintenance cost. However, in spite of implementation of systems (AIM/RBI/RCM/PSM..) success is far away and the problem has aggravated instead getting the solution due to GIGO (garbage in garbage out) and poor analytics embedded in the software due to lack of real expertise of problem solving and poor reliability culture.
- Reliability of static equipment is most important in refineries, petrochemicals and pipelines since if it fails/ leak, out of containment of toxic gases & hydrocarbons may cause severe consequences due to fire hazard, contamination of soil and polluting the environment. Today, globally everywhere in public and politics, there is big awareness on environment pollution due to spills and emissions resulting protest as well as pressure from regulators which is so high in some past cases that has broken the backbone of industry or resulted to its permanent closure. The consequences of fire may lead to emergency shutdown of plant, loss of human due to fatality, damage of equipment, poor on-stream service factor and lot of problem from regulators and public/politics.
- Reliability of static equipment is most important in refineries, petrochemicals and pipelines since if it fails/ leak, out of containment of toxic gases & hydrocarbons may cause severe consequences due to fire hazard, contamination of soil and polluting the environment. Today, globally everywhere in public and politics, there is big awareness on environment pollution due to spills and emissions resulting protest as well as pressure from regulators which is so high in some past cases that has broken the backbone of industry or resulted to its permanent closure. The consequences of fire may lead to emergency shutdown of plant, loss of human due to fatality, damage of equipment, poor on-stream service factor and lot of problem from regulators and public/politics.