9/8 THUR 10:45 | Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program 3APA Florida
Jeffery Alexander
With an updated Evacuation Study for each of the 11 regions, Florida has one of the only statewide evacuation studies in the Nation. This session will educate participants on its fundamentals,
including HOW and WHY it was created and its implementation across a variety of planning disciplines. Explanations of the major components of the Evacuation Study, including its complex
evacuation transportation models, statewide coordination, behavioral surveys, and associated behavioral assumptions and advanced GIS modeling tools. Planners will gain a better understanding of the purpose, data and methodology of the Studies and how to implement its findings in their planning documents.
Workshop on Storm Water Modeling ApproachesM. Damon Weiss
The attached presentation was prepared by Pennoni Associates and Michael Baker Corporation to the Pittsburgh Parks Conservancy and members of the Pennsylvania Environmental Council Green Infrastructure Network. The presentation discussed various watershed modeling techniques for regional, watershed and local projects, as well as an overview of the different tools that engineers use to create these models.
Airport Capacity and the case of a new London AirportAndreas Mavrodis
The main aim of this dissertation is to develop a strategic modelling tool to assess the provision of additional airport capacity in Britain, with a particular focus on London and the South East, using the Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium’s Transport Demand and Capacity Assessment model.
Airport capacity is principally set by the capacity of its terminal(s) and runways. Over time, some growth is expected. The Davies Commission is currently reviewing the case for additional airport capacity in the London area, either by building a new airport or by expanding existing airports. This growth might be offset by a fuel price increase. In Heathrow (LHR) and other airports in the South East England there might be suppressed demand and some of this demand is either going to move to other airports or remain suppressed. This phenomenon has not yet been included in the Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium’s Transport Demand and Capacity Assessment model (ITRC model). This dissertation is analysing the current passenger demand and also attempts to assess the future demand and specifically to determine the results of the possible knock-on effects to the airports of the region.
Further objectives of this study are:
• To review the work of the Airport Commission and the related literature.
• To review work on modelling the demand for and supply of airport infrastructure.
• To adapt the ITRC model so as to incorporate cross effects between airports.
RISK ANALYSIS FOR SEVERE TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS IN ROAD TUNNELS (PART I)Franco Bontempi
IF CRASC'15 - 14-16 MAGGIO 2015 ROMA
The safety in road tunnels is a very delicate issue, since that a minor accident or a failure of a vehicle can degenerate into scenarios that can lead to a high number of victims. For example, on the 24 March 1999, 39 people died when a Belgian HGV carrying flour and margarine caught fire in the Mont Blanc Tunnel.
In the first part of this study has been summarized the operation logic of a specific model for the risk analysis, the PIARC/OECD Quantitative Risk Assessment Model, and how it derives risk indicators. In the second part, a comprehensive risk analysis is performed in a long tunnel in South Italy, accounting for multifaceted aspects and parameters. The analysis is integrated with a sensitivity analysis on specific parameters that have an influence on the risk.
In sections 2, 3, and 4 the concept of Risk and its assessment is dealt. In section 5, the proce-dure followed by the QRA model to derive societal and individual risk indicators is discussed, starting from a given number of possible accident scenarios. In section 6 conclusions are written regarding the application of the studied model.
RISK ANALYSIS FOR SEVERE TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS IN ROAD TUNNELS (PART II)Franco Bontempi
IF CRASC'15 - Roma, 14-16 maggio 2015.
The safety in road tunnels is a very delicate issue, since that a minor accident or a failure of a vehicle can degenerate into scenarios that can lead to a high number of victims. For example, on the 24 March 1999, 39 people died when a Belgian HGV carrying flour and margarine caught fire in the Mont Blanc Tunnel.
In the first part of this study has been summarized the operation logic of a specific model for the risk analysis, the PIARC/OECD Quantitative Risk Assessment Model, and how it derives risk indicators. In the second part, a comprehensive risk analysis is performed in a long tunnel in South Italy, accounting for multifaceted aspects and parameters. The analysis is integrated with a sensitivity analysis on specific parameters that have an influence on the risk.
The section 2 of this paper describes the tunnel San Demetrio on which was carried out risk analysis applying the PIARC/OECD QRA model, and in the section 3 are reported the main analysis results. In section 4, conclusions regard to risk analysis applied to real case and about the sensitivity analysis are reported. In particular, the sensitivity analysis has highlighted the most influential parameters in the model.
9/8 THUR 10:45 | Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program 3APA Florida
Jeffery Alexander
With an updated Evacuation Study for each of the 11 regions, Florida has one of the only statewide evacuation studies in the Nation. This session will educate participants on its fundamentals,
including HOW and WHY it was created and its implementation across a variety of planning disciplines. Explanations of the major components of the Evacuation Study, including its complex
evacuation transportation models, statewide coordination, behavioral surveys, and associated behavioral assumptions and advanced GIS modeling tools. Planners will gain a better understanding of the purpose, data and methodology of the Studies and how to implement its findings in their planning documents.
Workshop on Storm Water Modeling ApproachesM. Damon Weiss
The attached presentation was prepared by Pennoni Associates and Michael Baker Corporation to the Pittsburgh Parks Conservancy and members of the Pennsylvania Environmental Council Green Infrastructure Network. The presentation discussed various watershed modeling techniques for regional, watershed and local projects, as well as an overview of the different tools that engineers use to create these models.
Airport Capacity and the case of a new London AirportAndreas Mavrodis
The main aim of this dissertation is to develop a strategic modelling tool to assess the provision of additional airport capacity in Britain, with a particular focus on London and the South East, using the Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium’s Transport Demand and Capacity Assessment model.
Airport capacity is principally set by the capacity of its terminal(s) and runways. Over time, some growth is expected. The Davies Commission is currently reviewing the case for additional airport capacity in the London area, either by building a new airport or by expanding existing airports. This growth might be offset by a fuel price increase. In Heathrow (LHR) and other airports in the South East England there might be suppressed demand and some of this demand is either going to move to other airports or remain suppressed. This phenomenon has not yet been included in the Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium’s Transport Demand and Capacity Assessment model (ITRC model). This dissertation is analysing the current passenger demand and also attempts to assess the future demand and specifically to determine the results of the possible knock-on effects to the airports of the region.
Further objectives of this study are:
• To review the work of the Airport Commission and the related literature.
• To review work on modelling the demand for and supply of airport infrastructure.
• To adapt the ITRC model so as to incorporate cross effects between airports.
RISK ANALYSIS FOR SEVERE TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS IN ROAD TUNNELS (PART I)Franco Bontempi
IF CRASC'15 - 14-16 MAGGIO 2015 ROMA
The safety in road tunnels is a very delicate issue, since that a minor accident or a failure of a vehicle can degenerate into scenarios that can lead to a high number of victims. For example, on the 24 March 1999, 39 people died when a Belgian HGV carrying flour and margarine caught fire in the Mont Blanc Tunnel.
In the first part of this study has been summarized the operation logic of a specific model for the risk analysis, the PIARC/OECD Quantitative Risk Assessment Model, and how it derives risk indicators. In the second part, a comprehensive risk analysis is performed in a long tunnel in South Italy, accounting for multifaceted aspects and parameters. The analysis is integrated with a sensitivity analysis on specific parameters that have an influence on the risk.
In sections 2, 3, and 4 the concept of Risk and its assessment is dealt. In section 5, the proce-dure followed by the QRA model to derive societal and individual risk indicators is discussed, starting from a given number of possible accident scenarios. In section 6 conclusions are written regarding the application of the studied model.
RISK ANALYSIS FOR SEVERE TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS IN ROAD TUNNELS (PART II)Franco Bontempi
IF CRASC'15 - Roma, 14-16 maggio 2015.
The safety in road tunnels is a very delicate issue, since that a minor accident or a failure of a vehicle can degenerate into scenarios that can lead to a high number of victims. For example, on the 24 March 1999, 39 people died when a Belgian HGV carrying flour and margarine caught fire in the Mont Blanc Tunnel.
In the first part of this study has been summarized the operation logic of a specific model for the risk analysis, the PIARC/OECD Quantitative Risk Assessment Model, and how it derives risk indicators. In the second part, a comprehensive risk analysis is performed in a long tunnel in South Italy, accounting for multifaceted aspects and parameters. The analysis is integrated with a sensitivity analysis on specific parameters that have an influence on the risk.
The section 2 of this paper describes the tunnel San Demetrio on which was carried out risk analysis applying the PIARC/OECD QRA model, and in the section 3 are reported the main analysis results. In section 4, conclusions regard to risk analysis applied to real case and about the sensitivity analysis are reported. In particular, the sensitivity analysis has highlighted the most influential parameters in the model.
INTEGRATING CLIMATE CONSIDERATIONS INTO ASSET MANAGEMENT AT MAINEDOT - GSMSum...GrowSmart Maine
Why plan for growth and change, when it seems so much easier to simply react?
When there is a distinct and shared vision for your community - when residents, businesses and local government anticipate a sustainable town with cohesive and thriving neighborhoods - you have the power to conserve your beautiful natural spaces, enhance your existing downtown or Main Street, enable rural areas to be productive and prosperous, and save money through efficient use of existing infrastructure.
This is the dollars and sense of smart growth.
Success is clearly visible in Maine, from the creation of a community-built senior housing complex and health center in Fort Fairfield to conservation easements creating Forever Farms to Rockland's revitalized downtown. Communities have options. We have the power to manage our own responses to growth and change.
After all, “Planning is a process of choosing among those many options. If we do not choose to plan, then we choose to have others plan for us.” - Richard I. Winwood
And in the end, this means that our children and their children will choose to make Maine home and our economy will provide the opportunities to do so.
The Summit offers you a wonderful opportunity to be a part of the transformative change in Maine that we’ve seen these gatherings produce. We encourage you to consider the value of being actively involved in growing Maine’s economy and protecting the reasons we choose to live here.
ICLR Friday Forum: Modelling of Future Flood Risk Across Canada (May 31, 2019)glennmcgillivray
On May 31, 2019, ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar lead by Dr. Slobodan Simonovic of Western University titled 'Modelling of Future Flood Risk Across Canada Under Climate Change.'
Climate change has induced changes in key climate variables and the hydrological cycle across Canada. With continuous emission of greenhouse gases, this trend is expected to continue over the 21st century and beyond. In this study, a macro-scaled hydrodynamic model is used to simulate 25 km resolution daily streamflow across Canada for historical (1961-2005) and future (2061-2100) timelines.
Future projections from 21 GCMs following four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were used for the analysis. Changes in the frequency and magnitude of historical 100-year and 250-year return period flood events and month of occurrence of peak flow are analyzed. Results obtained from uncertainty analysis for both return period flood events found that flood frequency will increase in most of the northern Canada, southern Ontario, southern British Columbia, northern Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. However, northern British Columbia, northern Ontario, Manitoba and northeastern Quebec will be facing decrease in flood frequency. Results indicate that 40%-60% of Canada’s 100 most populated cities including many prominent cities such as Toronto and Montreal are high at risk of increased riverine flooding under climate change.
Slobodan P. Simonovic is Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University of Western Ontario and Director of Engineering Studies at ICLR. Prof. Simonovic is globally recognized for his unique interdisciplinary research in Systems Analysis and has over 500 professional publications and three major textbooks. Prof. Simonovic was inducted to the Canadian Academy of Engineering in June of 2013.
CLR hosted a Friday Forum webinar on February 22 titled 'Robust impact patterns: an approach to account for uncertainties in local sea-level rise vulnerability assessments', led by Jackie Yip of University of British Columbia.
While sea-level rise (SLR) is an inevitable effect of climate change, there are deep uncertainties regarding when and how SLR can impact society, which act as a significant barrier to adaptation. Recent literature calls for a shift from seeking optimal adaptation options to robust options that can perform reasonably under a range of possible futures, embracing uncertainties rather than eliminating them.
In response, this study develops a new approach, the Robust Impact Patterns (RIPs) method, to help decision-makers account for SLR impact uncertainties in adaptation planning. The method utilizes the pattern recognition capability of machine learning to transform thousands of local SLR impact maps into a small number of impact patterns that are robust across multiple futures, thereby processing an otherwise vast and overwhelming volume of impact information.
Jackie Yip is a Consequence Analyst at Kerr Wood Leidal, with experience in a range of climate vulnerability and resilience projects. Before joining KWL, she completed her Ph.D. at the Institute for Resources, Environment, and Sustainability of UBC, where she conducted this presentation’s research in partnership with the City of Vancouver. At the organizational level, Jackie was also a technical lead at Fraser Health, where her work focused on improving the resilience of healthcare facilities in the Lower Mainland to extreme events, including flooding and extreme heat. More broadly, she has led the design of Resilient-C, an online platform connecting Canadian coastal municipalities to share knowledge and collaborate on reducing risks to coastal hazards.
ICLR Friday Forum: Floodplain mapping over Canada: performance at inundation...glennmcgillivray
ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar on June 18, 2021 titled 'Floodplain mapping over Canada: Investigating performance at inundation level and understanding dynamics of population flood exposure', led by Dr. Slobodan Simonovic, Director of Engineering Studies, ICLR/Professor Emeritus, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Western University.
Surface runoff estimates from atmospheric re-analysis datasets are increasingly preferred by hydrologists for modelling floods in regions where traditional observations are not sufficiently available. This presentation explores the fidelity of four widely used re-analyses runoff products as hydraulic forcings to a flood inundation model in describing inundation dynamics over Canada. The re-analysis obtained runoff is used with the Catchment-based Macroscale Floodplain (CaMa-Flood) global hydrodynamic model, to derive high-resolution floodplain maps for 100 and 200-yr return periods. The floodplain maps derived from each reanalysis dataset are compared with the regional developed or ‘benchmark floodplain maps’ over six selected flood-prone basins (test basins) in Canada through a set of performance statistics. Using the superior reanalysis runoff dataset, a few historic flood events over the test basins are simulated and subsequently compared with MODIS satellite-derived floodplain information. We notice that more than 75% of the inundation is precisely captured for these events.
The second part of the presentation will focus on the use of four global population datasets (together with census data from Statistics Canada as the reference), their performances and skill in flood exposure assessment across Canada. The flood exposure is quantified based on a set of floodplain maps for Canada derived from the CaMa-Flood global flood model. To obtain further insights at the regional level, the methodology is implemented over six flood-prone River Basins in Canada. We find that about 9% (3.31 million) and 11% (3.90 million) of the Canadian population resides within 1 in 100-yr and 1 in 200-yr floodplains.
This work (i) strongly supports the need for careful selection of a re-analysis dataset while performing inundation modelling for large regions: and (ii) also highlights the need for careful selection of population datasets for preventing further amplification of uncertainties in flood risk. The results derived from this study may be useful for flood risk management and contribute to understanding other disaster impacts on human-environment interrelationships.
Presentation about our probabilistic coupled inland flood, hurricane wind and storm surge model. We discuss Harvey losses, SpatialKat runtimes, and show for the first time industry wide EP curves for all perils combined and by themselves. Highlights also include our climate sensitivity and climate variability modeling, another industry first. Comments welcome.
Risk on the Rise: Counting the Cost of Inland FloodingRMS
How can you estimate the potential cost of inland flooding?
Stay on top of inland flood risks with a deeper understanding of vulnerability and hazard.
RMS' Dr. Robert Muir-Wood and Dr. Navin Peiris delve into the challenges of reconstructing inland flood events in real time and modeling the vulnerability of the affected properties.
DSD-INT 2016 Keynote Lecture 2016: From global to local: the latest developme...Deltares
Keynote Lecture by Martin Verlaan, Delft University of Technology & Deltares, The Netherlands at the joint Delft3D User Days and the OpenDA User Day, during Delft Software Days 2016 on Tuesday, 1 November 2016, Delft.
Development of Urban Flood Analysis Model for Real-time Urban Flood Forecasti...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 Integrative Risk Management - Towards Resilient Cities. 28 August - 01 September 2016 in Davos, Switzerland
DSD-INT 2023 Fast compound flood modelling using reduced complexity model - d...Deltares
Presentation by Roel de Goede (Deltares, Netherlands) at the Symposium on Emulating 2D flood modelling, during the Delft Software Days - Edition 2023 (DSD-INT 2023). Wednesday, 27 September 2023, Delft.
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland
An Introduction to the Environment Agency extreme offshore wave, water level ...Stephen Flood
An Introduction to the Environment Agency extreme offshore wave, water level and wind conditions data sets, transformed to nearshore for events covering up to the 10000 year extreme coastal event, available to all for use in local studies.
Presented at the DHI UK Symposium 2018.
Environmental Management Modeling Activities at Los Alamos National Laborator...Velimir (monty) Vesselinov
esselinov, V.V., et al., Environmental Management Modeling Activities at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Department of Energy Technical Exchange Meeting, Performance Assessment Community of Practice, Hanford, April 13-14, 2010.
DEM-based Methods for Flood Risk Mapping at Large ScaleSalvatore Manfreda
Oral presentation given during the meeting "Valutazione e Gestione del Rischio Alluvioni – Governance del territorio e contributo del mondo scientifico" of the project "Mettiamoci in Riga"
Observation of Io’s Resurfacing via Plume Deposition Using Ground-based Adapt...Sérgio Sacani
Since volcanic activity was first discovered on Io from Voyager images in 1979, changes
on Io’s surface have been monitored from both spacecraft and ground-based telescopes.
Here, we present the highest spatial resolution images of Io ever obtained from a groundbased telescope. These images, acquired by the SHARK-VIS instrument on the Large
Binocular Telescope, show evidence of a major resurfacing event on Io’s trailing hemisphere. When compared to the most recent spacecraft images, the SHARK-VIS images
show that a plume deposit from a powerful eruption at Pillan Patera has covered part
of the long-lived Pele plume deposit. Although this type of resurfacing event may be common on Io, few have been detected due to the rarity of spacecraft visits and the previously low spatial resolution available from Earth-based telescopes. The SHARK-VIS instrument ushers in a new era of high resolution imaging of Io’s surface using adaptive
optics at visible wavelengths.
INTEGRATING CLIMATE CONSIDERATIONS INTO ASSET MANAGEMENT AT MAINEDOT - GSMSum...GrowSmart Maine
Why plan for growth and change, when it seems so much easier to simply react?
When there is a distinct and shared vision for your community - when residents, businesses and local government anticipate a sustainable town with cohesive and thriving neighborhoods - you have the power to conserve your beautiful natural spaces, enhance your existing downtown or Main Street, enable rural areas to be productive and prosperous, and save money through efficient use of existing infrastructure.
This is the dollars and sense of smart growth.
Success is clearly visible in Maine, from the creation of a community-built senior housing complex and health center in Fort Fairfield to conservation easements creating Forever Farms to Rockland's revitalized downtown. Communities have options. We have the power to manage our own responses to growth and change.
After all, “Planning is a process of choosing among those many options. If we do not choose to plan, then we choose to have others plan for us.” - Richard I. Winwood
And in the end, this means that our children and their children will choose to make Maine home and our economy will provide the opportunities to do so.
The Summit offers you a wonderful opportunity to be a part of the transformative change in Maine that we’ve seen these gatherings produce. We encourage you to consider the value of being actively involved in growing Maine’s economy and protecting the reasons we choose to live here.
ICLR Friday Forum: Modelling of Future Flood Risk Across Canada (May 31, 2019)glennmcgillivray
On May 31, 2019, ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar lead by Dr. Slobodan Simonovic of Western University titled 'Modelling of Future Flood Risk Across Canada Under Climate Change.'
Climate change has induced changes in key climate variables and the hydrological cycle across Canada. With continuous emission of greenhouse gases, this trend is expected to continue over the 21st century and beyond. In this study, a macro-scaled hydrodynamic model is used to simulate 25 km resolution daily streamflow across Canada for historical (1961-2005) and future (2061-2100) timelines.
Future projections from 21 GCMs following four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were used for the analysis. Changes in the frequency and magnitude of historical 100-year and 250-year return period flood events and month of occurrence of peak flow are analyzed. Results obtained from uncertainty analysis for both return period flood events found that flood frequency will increase in most of the northern Canada, southern Ontario, southern British Columbia, northern Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. However, northern British Columbia, northern Ontario, Manitoba and northeastern Quebec will be facing decrease in flood frequency. Results indicate that 40%-60% of Canada’s 100 most populated cities including many prominent cities such as Toronto and Montreal are high at risk of increased riverine flooding under climate change.
Slobodan P. Simonovic is Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University of Western Ontario and Director of Engineering Studies at ICLR. Prof. Simonovic is globally recognized for his unique interdisciplinary research in Systems Analysis and has over 500 professional publications and three major textbooks. Prof. Simonovic was inducted to the Canadian Academy of Engineering in June of 2013.
CLR hosted a Friday Forum webinar on February 22 titled 'Robust impact patterns: an approach to account for uncertainties in local sea-level rise vulnerability assessments', led by Jackie Yip of University of British Columbia.
While sea-level rise (SLR) is an inevitable effect of climate change, there are deep uncertainties regarding when and how SLR can impact society, which act as a significant barrier to adaptation. Recent literature calls for a shift from seeking optimal adaptation options to robust options that can perform reasonably under a range of possible futures, embracing uncertainties rather than eliminating them.
In response, this study develops a new approach, the Robust Impact Patterns (RIPs) method, to help decision-makers account for SLR impact uncertainties in adaptation planning. The method utilizes the pattern recognition capability of machine learning to transform thousands of local SLR impact maps into a small number of impact patterns that are robust across multiple futures, thereby processing an otherwise vast and overwhelming volume of impact information.
Jackie Yip is a Consequence Analyst at Kerr Wood Leidal, with experience in a range of climate vulnerability and resilience projects. Before joining KWL, she completed her Ph.D. at the Institute for Resources, Environment, and Sustainability of UBC, where she conducted this presentation’s research in partnership with the City of Vancouver. At the organizational level, Jackie was also a technical lead at Fraser Health, where her work focused on improving the resilience of healthcare facilities in the Lower Mainland to extreme events, including flooding and extreme heat. More broadly, she has led the design of Resilient-C, an online platform connecting Canadian coastal municipalities to share knowledge and collaborate on reducing risks to coastal hazards.
ICLR Friday Forum: Floodplain mapping over Canada: performance at inundation...glennmcgillivray
ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar on June 18, 2021 titled 'Floodplain mapping over Canada: Investigating performance at inundation level and understanding dynamics of population flood exposure', led by Dr. Slobodan Simonovic, Director of Engineering Studies, ICLR/Professor Emeritus, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Western University.
Surface runoff estimates from atmospheric re-analysis datasets are increasingly preferred by hydrologists for modelling floods in regions where traditional observations are not sufficiently available. This presentation explores the fidelity of four widely used re-analyses runoff products as hydraulic forcings to a flood inundation model in describing inundation dynamics over Canada. The re-analysis obtained runoff is used with the Catchment-based Macroscale Floodplain (CaMa-Flood) global hydrodynamic model, to derive high-resolution floodplain maps for 100 and 200-yr return periods. The floodplain maps derived from each reanalysis dataset are compared with the regional developed or ‘benchmark floodplain maps’ over six selected flood-prone basins (test basins) in Canada through a set of performance statistics. Using the superior reanalysis runoff dataset, a few historic flood events over the test basins are simulated and subsequently compared with MODIS satellite-derived floodplain information. We notice that more than 75% of the inundation is precisely captured for these events.
The second part of the presentation will focus on the use of four global population datasets (together with census data from Statistics Canada as the reference), their performances and skill in flood exposure assessment across Canada. The flood exposure is quantified based on a set of floodplain maps for Canada derived from the CaMa-Flood global flood model. To obtain further insights at the regional level, the methodology is implemented over six flood-prone River Basins in Canada. We find that about 9% (3.31 million) and 11% (3.90 million) of the Canadian population resides within 1 in 100-yr and 1 in 200-yr floodplains.
This work (i) strongly supports the need for careful selection of a re-analysis dataset while performing inundation modelling for large regions: and (ii) also highlights the need for careful selection of population datasets for preventing further amplification of uncertainties in flood risk. The results derived from this study may be useful for flood risk management and contribute to understanding other disaster impacts on human-environment interrelationships.
Presentation about our probabilistic coupled inland flood, hurricane wind and storm surge model. We discuss Harvey losses, SpatialKat runtimes, and show for the first time industry wide EP curves for all perils combined and by themselves. Highlights also include our climate sensitivity and climate variability modeling, another industry first. Comments welcome.
Risk on the Rise: Counting the Cost of Inland FloodingRMS
How can you estimate the potential cost of inland flooding?
Stay on top of inland flood risks with a deeper understanding of vulnerability and hazard.
RMS' Dr. Robert Muir-Wood and Dr. Navin Peiris delve into the challenges of reconstructing inland flood events in real time and modeling the vulnerability of the affected properties.
DSD-INT 2016 Keynote Lecture 2016: From global to local: the latest developme...Deltares
Keynote Lecture by Martin Verlaan, Delft University of Technology & Deltares, The Netherlands at the joint Delft3D User Days and the OpenDA User Day, during Delft Software Days 2016 on Tuesday, 1 November 2016, Delft.
Development of Urban Flood Analysis Model for Real-time Urban Flood Forecasti...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 Integrative Risk Management - Towards Resilient Cities. 28 August - 01 September 2016 in Davos, Switzerland
DSD-INT 2023 Fast compound flood modelling using reduced complexity model - d...Deltares
Presentation by Roel de Goede (Deltares, Netherlands) at the Symposium on Emulating 2D flood modelling, during the Delft Software Days - Edition 2023 (DSD-INT 2023). Wednesday, 27 September 2023, Delft.
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland
An Introduction to the Environment Agency extreme offshore wave, water level ...Stephen Flood
An Introduction to the Environment Agency extreme offshore wave, water level and wind conditions data sets, transformed to nearshore for events covering up to the 10000 year extreme coastal event, available to all for use in local studies.
Presented at the DHI UK Symposium 2018.
Environmental Management Modeling Activities at Los Alamos National Laborator...Velimir (monty) Vesselinov
esselinov, V.V., et al., Environmental Management Modeling Activities at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Department of Energy Technical Exchange Meeting, Performance Assessment Community of Practice, Hanford, April 13-14, 2010.
DEM-based Methods for Flood Risk Mapping at Large ScaleSalvatore Manfreda
Oral presentation given during the meeting "Valutazione e Gestione del Rischio Alluvioni – Governance del territorio e contributo del mondo scientifico" of the project "Mettiamoci in Riga"
Observation of Io’s Resurfacing via Plume Deposition Using Ground-based Adapt...Sérgio Sacani
Since volcanic activity was first discovered on Io from Voyager images in 1979, changes
on Io’s surface have been monitored from both spacecraft and ground-based telescopes.
Here, we present the highest spatial resolution images of Io ever obtained from a groundbased telescope. These images, acquired by the SHARK-VIS instrument on the Large
Binocular Telescope, show evidence of a major resurfacing event on Io’s trailing hemisphere. When compared to the most recent spacecraft images, the SHARK-VIS images
show that a plume deposit from a powerful eruption at Pillan Patera has covered part
of the long-lived Pele plume deposit. Although this type of resurfacing event may be common on Io, few have been detected due to the rarity of spacecraft visits and the previously low spatial resolution available from Earth-based telescopes. The SHARK-VIS instrument ushers in a new era of high resolution imaging of Io’s surface using adaptive
optics at visible wavelengths.
ANAMOLOUS SECONDARY GROWTH IN DICOT ROOTS.pptxRASHMI M G
Abnormal or anomalous secondary growth in plants. It defines secondary growth as an increase in plant girth due to vascular cambium or cork cambium. Anomalous secondary growth does not follow the normal pattern of a single vascular cambium producing xylem internally and phloem externally.
The use of Nauplii and metanauplii artemia in aquaculture (brine shrimp).pptxMAGOTI ERNEST
Although Artemia has been known to man for centuries, its use as a food for the culture of larval organisms apparently began only in the 1930s, when several investigators found that it made an excellent food for newly hatched fish larvae (Litvinenko et al., 2023). As aquaculture developed in the 1960s and ‘70s, the use of Artemia also became more widespread, due both to its convenience and to its nutritional value for larval organisms (Arenas-Pardo et al., 2024). The fact that Artemia dormant cysts can be stored for long periods in cans, and then used as an off-the-shelf food requiring only 24 h of incubation makes them the most convenient, least labor-intensive, live food available for aquaculture (Sorgeloos & Roubach, 2021). The nutritional value of Artemia, especially for marine organisms, is not constant, but varies both geographically and temporally. During the last decade, however, both the causes of Artemia nutritional variability and methods to improve poorquality Artemia have been identified (Loufi et al., 2024).
Brine shrimp (Artemia spp.) are used in marine aquaculture worldwide. Annually, more than 2,000 metric tons of dry cysts are used for cultivation of fish, crustacean, and shellfish larva. Brine shrimp are important to aquaculture because newly hatched brine shrimp nauplii (larvae) provide a food source for many fish fry (Mozanzadeh et al., 2021). Culture and harvesting of brine shrimp eggs represents another aspect of the aquaculture industry. Nauplii and metanauplii of Artemia, commonly known as brine shrimp, play a crucial role in aquaculture due to their nutritional value and suitability as live feed for many aquatic species, particularly in larval stages (Sorgeloos & Roubach, 2021).
Remote Sensing and Computational, Evolutionary, Supercomputing, and Intellige...University of Maribor
Slides from talk:
Aleš Zamuda: Remote Sensing and Computational, Evolutionary, Supercomputing, and Intelligent Systems.
11th International Conference on Electrical, Electronics and Computer Engineering (IcETRAN), Niš, 3-6 June 2024
Inter-Society Networking Panel GRSS/MTT-S/CIS Panel Session: Promoting Connection and Cooperation
https://www.etran.rs/2024/en/home-english/
hematic appreciation test is a psychological assessment tool used to measure an individual's appreciation and understanding of specific themes or topics. This test helps to evaluate an individual's ability to connect different ideas and concepts within a given theme, as well as their overall comprehension and interpretation skills. The results of the test can provide valuable insights into an individual's cognitive abilities, creativity, and critical thinking skills
ESR spectroscopy in liquid food and beverages.pptxPRIYANKA PATEL
With increasing population, people need to rely on packaged food stuffs. Packaging of food materials requires the preservation of food. There are various methods for the treatment of food to preserve them and irradiation treatment of food is one of them. It is the most common and the most harmless method for the food preservation as it does not alter the necessary micronutrients of food materials. Although irradiated food doesn’t cause any harm to the human health but still the quality assessment of food is required to provide consumers with necessary information about the food. ESR spectroscopy is the most sophisticated way to investigate the quality of the food and the free radicals induced during the processing of the food. ESR spin trapping technique is useful for the detection of highly unstable radicals in the food. The antioxidant capability of liquid food and beverages in mainly performed by spin trapping technique.
Comparing Evolved Extractive Text Summary Scores of Bidirectional Encoder Rep...University of Maribor
Slides from:
11th International Conference on Electrical, Electronics and Computer Engineering (IcETRAN), Niš, 3-6 June 2024
Track: Artificial Intelligence
https://www.etran.rs/2024/en/home-english/
Nutraceutical market, scope and growth: Herbal drug technologyLokesh Patil
As consumer awareness of health and wellness rises, the nutraceutical market—which includes goods like functional meals, drinks, and dietary supplements that provide health advantages beyond basic nutrition—is growing significantly. As healthcare expenses rise, the population ages, and people want natural and preventative health solutions more and more, this industry is increasing quickly. Further driving market expansion are product formulation innovations and the use of cutting-edge technology for customized nutrition. With its worldwide reach, the nutraceutical industry is expected to keep growing and provide significant chances for research and investment in a number of categories, including vitamins, minerals, probiotics, and herbal supplements.
Phenomics assisted breeding in crop improvementIshaGoswami9
As the population is increasing and will reach about 9 billion upto 2050. Also due to climate change, it is difficult to meet the food requirement of such a large population. Facing the challenges presented by resource shortages, climate
change, and increasing global population, crop yield and quality need to be improved in a sustainable way over the coming decades. Genetic improvement by breeding is the best way to increase crop productivity. With the rapid progression of functional
genomics, an increasing number of crop genomes have been sequenced and dozens of genes influencing key agronomic traits have been identified. However, current genome sequence information has not been adequately exploited for understanding
the complex characteristics of multiple gene, owing to a lack of crop phenotypic data. Efficient, automatic, and accurate technologies and platforms that can capture phenotypic data that can
be linked to genomics information for crop improvement at all growth stages have become as important as genotyping. Thus,
high-throughput phenotyping has become the major bottleneck restricting crop breeding. Plant phenomics has been defined as the high-throughput, accurate acquisition and analysis of multi-dimensional phenotypes
during crop growing stages at the organism level, including the cell, tissue, organ, individual plant, plot, and field levels. With the rapid development of novel sensors, imaging technology,
and analysis methods, numerous infrastructure platforms have been developed for phenotyping.
1. From Hazard Maps to
Loss Analytics and Software Solutions
RAA Cat Risk Management
February 2016
KatRisk LLC
752 Gilman St.
Berkeley, CA 94710
510-984-0056
www.KatRisk.com
Confidential
4. Modeling Overview
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q All areas covered with 2-d hydraulic modeling
approaches
q No lower limit on the size of catchment modeled
q Includes both riverine and pluvial (surface water)
flooding
q Six return periods for each region: 10, 20, 50, 100,
200, 500 years
q Flood depths as well as flood extent
Hazard
Maps
Location
Loss
Analytics
Probabilistic
Models
5. Coverage and Extent of Modeling
Red outlines – FEMA 100 year flood zones
Blue – high resolution model
including pluvial (surface) and fluvial
(riverine) flooding
q FEMA FIRMs cover much but not
all of the US
q In many areas they cover the
main rivers but not smaller
streams and surface water
flooding
q Need to model the the water
getting to the rivers as well as out
of the rivers
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Hazard
Maps
Location
Loss
Analytics
Probabilistic
Models
6. TITAN Supercomputer
Utilized resources of the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility
at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, which is supported by the
Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy under
Contract No. DE-AC05-00OR22725.
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Hazard
Maps
Location
Loss
Analytics
Probabilistic
Models
8. Europe Flood Map Examples
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Hazard
Maps
Location
Loss
Analytics
Probabilistic
Models
9. Asia Flood Map Examples
Bangkok
Jakarta
Kuala Lumpur
Seoul
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Hazard
Maps
Location
Loss
Analytics
Probabilistic
Models
10. Flooded Downtown Area Outside of FEMA Hazard Zones
Blue Shading – KatRisk Flood Model
Red Hatched – FEMA Zones A and V
Pensacola Flooding April 2014
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1 9
4
Hazard
Maps
Location
Loss
Analytics
Probabilistic
Models
15. Additional Data Layers
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q Inland Flood Score: Relative risk
score based on flood depths
surrounding a geocoded long/lat
q Leveed Areas: Areas designated as
protected by levee either on FEMA
flood zones maps or the US Army
Corps of Engineers National Levee
Database
q FEMA zones
q SLOSH Storm Surge: NOAA SLOSH
storm surge flood heights for
Category 1-5 Hurricanes and a
KatRisk relative storm surge risk
score
Storm Surge Score
Hazard
Maps
Location
Loss
Analytics
Probabilistic
Models
16. What to do with Hazard Data
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Davenport IA
Davenport
IA
Ambler, PA May 2014
Relative Risk Score
Risk selection metrics
• Flood Depth at 6 return periods
• Presence of levees
• FEMA zone designation
Hazard
Maps
Location
Loss
Analytics
Probabilistic
Models
17. Portfolio Risk Analytics
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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Negligible Minimal Very Low Low Moderately Low Moderate Moderately High High Very High Extreme
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Negligible Minimal Very Low Low Moderately Low Moderate Moderately High High Very High Extreme
High Risk Portfolio – over ½ in FEMA A Zones
Low/Moderate Risk Portfolio
Hazard
Maps
Location
Loss
Analytics
Probabilistic
Models
19. Modeling Vulnerability
q Vulnerability Characteristics
o Occupancy
o Construction
o Number of Stories
o Presence of basement
o First Floor Elevation
o Vulnerability modifiers by coverage
q Loss Distributions modeled around Mean Damage Ratio
q All vulnerability data is open
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Lumped probabilities of 0 and 100% damage,
dependent on the mean damage ratio
Hazard
Maps
Location
Loss
Analytics
Probabilistic
Models
20. Loss Analytics Data Input/Output
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q Input
o Location (Country,State,Long/Lat)
o Coverage Values
§ Building
§ Contents
§ BI/ALE
o Occupancy
o Construction
o Number of Stories
o Presence of Basement
o First Floor Elevation
o Vulnerability Factors
o Deductible/Limit
q Default values assigned if unknown
q Output
o Flood depths at 6 return periods
o Flood risk score
o 100 year maximum depth within
100 meters
o Average Annual Loss
o Return Period Losses
o In the US
§ Levee information
§ FEMA zone
§ HUC zone
§ SLOSH storm surge heights
§ Hurricane wind speeds
Hazard
Maps
Location
Loss
Analytics
Probabilistic
Models
21. Loss Analytics Software
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q Built using R/R-Shiny: All code and data open
q Deployed or via the web
q Fast analysis results, millions of locations overnight
q Multi-region analyses in one run
q Demo for the US at
http://www.katalyser.com/katrisk_flood_analytics_demo/
Hazard
Maps
Location
Loss
Analytics
Probabilistic
Models
22. Event Based Portfolio Models
q Currently developing event based probabilistic models
that are consistent with flood hazard maps
q Planned release of US and Canada models in 2016
q Covering all sources of flooding within a correlated
event set
o Inland flood
o Explicit modeling of tropical cyclone rainfall and storm surge
(along with wind)
q Representing correlations in space and time of weather
and climate events
q Having a flexible modeling framework that allows for
the inclusion of climate change scenarios and
forecasting
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Hazard
Maps
Location
Loss
Analytics
Probabilistic
Models
24. US and Asia Wind Modeling
q To support our probabilistic event models, hurricane track sets have been
developed for the Atlantic Basin and Northwest Pacific Basin
q Currently developing tracks for all other basins worldwide
q Running US storm surge analyses for the 50k year event set
q Combined with roughness, windfield, and vulnerability models, full wind
loss modeling capabilities are available
Loss Costs
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Hazard
Maps
Location
Loss
Analytics
Probabilistic
Models
25. Task #1: Work on Global Correlations
ν Get ocean and atmospheric data and establish correlations
Ocean SST and precipitation
Main modes of SST variability from
principal component analysis (PCA)
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Hazard
Maps
Location
Loss
Analytics
Probabilistic
Models
SST Precip Movie
26. Task #2: Establish correlations
TC precip
ENSO AMOThree month lag anomaly correlation with PCAs
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q “Trigger” pluvial and fluvial flood hazard maps based on probabilistic
meteorology and hydrological model
o Combine TC and non-TC precip
o Base hurricane model and global precipitation model on same data
set of global SST expressing natural variability and global correlations
Hazard
Maps
Location
Loss
Analytics
Probabilistic
Models
27. Example: US & Caribbean Hurricane
Sample Tracks
KatRisk TC Model Loss Cost Map
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q 25 climate conditioned hurricane
track sets have been developed
for the Atlantic Basin (1km
resolution, 50k years of events)
q Combined with roughness, wind
filed, and vulnerability models,
full wind loss modeling
capabilities are available
q Free online wind loss analysis tool
(Katalyser) available at our
website
Hazard
Maps
Location
Loss
Analytics
Probabilistic
Models
28. US Rates and Losses 1900-2010
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q Losses conditional on SST
q Two most dominant SST patterns (ENSO,
AMO) drive models
q Historical losses are from our hurricane
model using current US exposure
Hazard
Maps
Location
Loss
Analytics
Probabilistic
Models
29. USA AAL by Atlantic SST and ENSO
Hurricane losses dependency on Atlantic SST Anomaly and ENSO
AAL by Atlantic SST
AAL by ENSO
Introduction of SST leads to clustering
# Atlantic TCs with SST
Dispersion = 1.36
# Atlantic TCs Poisson
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Hazard
Maps
Location
Loss
Analytics
Probabilistic
Models
30. Regional: Florida and Southeast
Florida Southeast
Dependency on Atlantic SST Anomaly and ENSO 30
31. Katalyser Software Application
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q R/R-Shiny based application
q Open code and data
Exposure Analytics and Visualization
Hazard
Maps
Location
Loss
Analytics
Probabilistic
Models
32. Analytical Capabilities
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q Set user defined model parameters
q Look at overall EP curves and drill down to key events
q Visualize individual events and impacted locations
Hazard
Maps
Location
Loss
Analytics
Probabilistic
Models
33. How Products are Being Accessed
q Flood Map Data and Location Loss Analytics
o Direct delivery of GIS files and Software Code
o Web Mapping Service (WMS)
o Delivery on third party GIS platforms
o Online batch lookup
q Probabilistic Models
o Katalyser Analysis Platform
o Working with third party platforms
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34. Recap
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Hazard
Maps
Location
Loss
Analytics
Probabilistic
Models and
Software
q Currently covering:
o US
o Canada
o Europe
o 15 Asia Countries
q Coming next:
o South/Central America
o Mexico
o Australia/NZ
o Rest of Asia
o Middle East
o Africa
q Available for all modeled
regions
q Hazard data retrieval and
loss calculations
q Open code and data
q Deployed, Hosted, APIs
q In development
q US and Canada capabilities
in 2016