Julian Price's presentation to the Kingsman Platts EU sugar conference 24 April 2018. "EU sugar and its role on the world stage".

1. 8th Kingsman EU Sugar Seminar
a trader’s perspective
“EU sugar and its role on the
world stage”
EU seminar 24-04-2018 Julian Price - ASSUC 1

2. Last year …
• Last year, ASSUC was asked to give an assessment
of the EU’s future role on the world stage:
– We were asked, “are you ready?”:
– We forecast that EU exports will certainly
double, possibly triple;
– and preferential imports will certainly halve,
maybe reduce even further.
• Last year, we quoted Karl Marx:
– To redress the balance, this year I’d like to
quote Adam Smith:
– By means of glasses, hotbeds, and hotwalls,
very good grapes can be raised in Scotland,
and very good wine too can be made of them
at about thirty times the expense for which at
least equally good can be brought from foreign
countries. Would it be a reasonable law to
prohibit the importation of all foreign wines,
merely to encourage the making of claret and
burgundy in Scotland?
• The Wealth Of Nations, Book IV, Chapter
II, p. 458, para. 15.
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3. EU: from net importer to net exporter
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Source: Eurostat
Forecast
basis 3m
trend

4. European ports of export
Julian Price - ASSUC
Port Further information
Gdansk http://www.portgdansk.pl/events/new-sugar-terminal-to-be-constructed-at-the-port-of-gdansk
Dunkirk https://www.bollore-ports.com/reseau-mondial/france/port-de-dunkerque.html
Calais https://www.portboulognecalais.fr/fr/terminal-de-commerce
Rouen http://www.haropaports.com/fr/le-terminal-sucrier-robust-reprend-du-service-rouen
Antwerp https://www.euroports.com/terminal/sugar-terminal-ta518-antwerp-belgium/
Le Havre http://www.shgt.fr/sucre-oceane-en/
Hamburg http://hamburg.steinweg.com/uploads/steinweg/documents/brochure_sugar_1.2.pdf
Magdeburg https://www.magdeburg-hafen.de/de/transport-logistik/bahndienstleistungen.html
Eemshaven https://www.verkoopav.nl/projecten/eemshaven-sugar-terminal-suiker-unie/
Terneuzen https://www.investinzeeland.com/en/news/business-park-axelse-vlakte-near-terneuzen-demand
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5. How far will EU exports go?
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6. Principal EU export flows
Julian Price - ASSUC
Source: Eurostat
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7. Q4 2017 principal EU export flows
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Source: Eurostat

8. White premium < $60 pmt
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WTO EU export limit
applies
Source:

9. Model preferential imports?
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10. EU raw sugar for refining import flows
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Source: Eurostat

11. EU white sugar imports ar sharply lower
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Source: Eurostat

12. Steady direct consumption raws trade
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13. IPR imports seem surprisingly resilient so far
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14. Principal intra-EU trade flows
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15. Intra-EU surplus and deficit states
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Source: Eurostat

16. EU stocks seem high but not exceptionally so
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Source: European Commission

17. Voluntary Coupled Support
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Source: Wageningen Economic Research
Source: ProSunergy Ltd.Source: European Commission

18. Bio-ethanol
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No correlation?
Source:

19. The weather: 2018/19 spring sowings are delayed
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20. #5 market structure is encouraging EU export delay?
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Source: European Commission

21. The EU sugar “playing field”
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369 €/t
Source:
European
Commission

22. Historical EU sugar import prices as reported to
Customs or VAT authorities in each MS
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23. Summary
• Factors to watch and
analyse:
– The weather
– The world market and the
markets for cereals
– EU consumption trends
– Bio-ethanol production
– Voluntary Coupled Support
– External trade
• ACP/CA imports and
alternative, regional markets
• Exports to MENA and further
afield
– All other things being equal,
EU exports in 2018/19 may
be only ≈2¼ million tonnes??
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24. Julian Price - ASSUC
ASSUC aisbl
European Association of Sugar Traders
Rue de Trêves 49-51, Box 14
B - 1040 Brussels
Tel +32(0) 27 366 873
Fax +32(0) 27 326 766
http://www.assuc.eu/
Follow us on Twitter at
@sugartraders
Follow us on LinkedIn at
http://bit.ly/assuc
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