This document summarizes security progress and challenges in Timor-Leste from 2009-2014. It notes that security has improved, with IDP camps closing within two years of a program providing $4,000 to each displaced person. However, challenges remain such as tensions in the security sector, sustainability of current leadership, and meeting growing expectations with finite oil and gas reserves. The conclusion is that while peace has been maintained, underlying issues from the 1975-1999 period risk future collapse if not addressed.

1. Juana de Catheu
Governance and security
adviser @ Development
Results.
Overseas Development
Institute
27 January 2015

2. 1. Background
from the independence struggle to civil
conflict

3. 2. Security progress, 2009-14

4. 2. Security progress, 2013-14
Source: The Asia Foundation and Belun, 2014

5. 3. Security progress, 2014
Source: The Asia Foundation and Belun, 2014

6. “No one internationally believed that
giving each IDP USD 4,000 would
work, but it did. IDP camps closed
inside of two years.”
--Advisor in the Ministry of Finance
«Politicians are realising it is better
to work together. It is better than
than dividing the country, which
would bring us more conflict »
−A religious leader, Bacau district
« The whole UN intervention wasa process fo legitimisation ofTimor as a state and as apeople… The UN presence hasmade East Timor a country.”
—A Timorese professor
4. Drivers of progress
« The 2006 crisis was like a big hit to remind
everyone that they had to work towards peace »
−Local NGO leader
“The biggest driver of security was
the payments to veterans after
2006”. –A donor representative

7. 4. Drivers of progress

8. 4. Drivers of
progress
peacekeeping and
massive, stable aid
Source: UNDPKO, 2014; CIC, 2014; OECD-DAC online data,

9. 4. Drivers of progress
Lots of carrots, and some sticks
Source: Authors’ calculations, based on World Bank, 2013.

10. “The long-term threat to
establishing the rule of law and
stability outweighs the short-term
benefits of political reconciliation
without justice “
« Inequalities lead to frustrationsand the latter to conflict andinstability »
--PM, 26 Jan. 2015
«“The very same things that have
allowed Timor-Leste’s stability could
be Timor-Leste’s undoing….The
current phenomenon is not a
development of law and order but a
development of power…they have
enough resources to buy the peace for
the moment, [but] it is not peace, it is
stability for the elite.”
Local NGO Leader in Dil
It is a very, very peaceful situation
now. But behind the peace are
hidden many, many things that can
lead to collapse… There is a legacy of
problems from 1975-1999 and also
those from the recent years. There
are a lot of cases where Xanana is
keeping issues like this [clasps hands
together].
–-Timorese security analyst
5. Challenges

11. 5. Challenges
1. Persistent and new/under-reported
forms of violence
2. Persistent tensions in the security
sector
3. Sustainability of two drivers (Xanana’s
leadership and “buying the peace”)
4. Growing expectations, finite oil and
gas reserves

12. « Timorese Flee as Militas Gain
Upper Hand. UN Says a Quarter
Have Fled » (1999)
I want to serve in 2015 with energy
and passion (PM, 31 Dec. 2014)
« Indonesia Talks of Leaving Timor,
and Both Sides Are Nervous »
(1999)
« Inequalities lead to frustrationsand the latter to conflict andinstability » (PM, 26 Jan. 2015)
« In Huge, Model Vote, East
Timorese Choose Their Future »
(1999)
«24 Rebel Plotters Sentenced »
(2008)
« Elections to be proud of »
(President Ramos-Horta, 16 April
2012)
«Timor-Leste: Chronic MalnutritionAmong World’s Highest » (2011)
Conclusion

13. Thank you.
jc@devresults.eu