In January 2017, Nigeria's consumer price index declined for the twelfth consecutive month, falling 24bps to 15.13% due to lower food prices and stable foreign exchange rates. Other MINT countries (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey) also saw decreases in inflation rates, with Turkey reaching a record low of 10.35% and Mexico and Indonesia declining as well. While Nigerian inflation is expected to continue decreasing in the short-term, increased liquidity from maturing government bonds could potentially cause inflation to rise again.

1. January 2017 CPI Update
Bright Start!!!
Nigeria’s consumer price index continued its
southwards trajectory for the twelfth
consecutive time. It declined substantially by
24bps from 15.37% in December to 15.13% in
January. According to National Bureau of
Statistics, increases were recorded in all
Classification of Individual Consumption by
Purpose (COICOP) divisions that yield the
headline index.
This sustained reduction can be attributed to the
slight decrease in food prices and relative
stability in foreign exchange market.
Nigerian Inflation Trend
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Jan-16
Mar-
16May-
16
Jul-16Sep-
16
Nov-
16
Jan-17Mar-
17
May-
17
Jul-17Sep-
17
Nov-
17
Jan-18
Source: PearlMutual Analytics
Minty Flavors
In the month of January 2017, all MINT countries
witnessed decrease in their respective inflation
rates. Turkey’s CPI reached an all-time low,
posting 10.35% (-157bps) in January, thus
attaining the lowest CPI since July. This has
been attributed to decreasing prices of food and
transport. Similarly, the headline index for
Mexico eased to 5.55% (-122bps) in January. This
is due to decrease in prices of tradable goods. In
the same vein, Indonesia’s inflation rate
decrease to 3.25% (-35bps) in January. This
decrease is caused by slow rise in prices of
processed food and electricity tariffs.
MINT TREND
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
Mexico Indonesia Nigeria Turkey
Source: PearlMutual Analytics
Inflation Outlook for Nigeria
We expect inflation rate to decline in the short
run due to stability in foreign exchange.
However, inflows from maturing Open Market
Operations can result in increased liquidity in
system.
©PearlMutual Consulting Ltd 2016

2. Analysts
Busayo Inuojo
Busayo.inuojo@pearlmutual.com
Sunday Udoh.
sunday.udoh @pearlmutual.com
Olufunmi Adepoju, CFA
olufunmi.adepoju@pearlmutual.com
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+2348132326547. You can also learn more about us at www.pearlmutual.com
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