This document discusses the state of venture capital and whether it is still relevant given recent trends. It argues that while some parts of the early-stage market have cooled, traditional venture capital for Series A and B rounds has remained fairly consistent. The biggest change is that more successful startups are staying private longer, capturing more value before going public. This extends the time horizon for venture returns but also provides more upside potential for funds that maintain ownership stakes. Overall, the document concludes that venture capital is still very much active and relevant, though the opportunities may be in later-stage growth rather than early-seed investing.
Details the rise, fall and rise of the venture capital industry in the USA, the consequent implications on the environment Asia finds itself in, with the opportunity presenting itself.
...how quickly venture backed
technology companies market capitalization changed (grew) and whether there had
been a change in the “Time To Market Cap” during different periods of history. November 2014
0507 057 01 98 * Adana Klima Montaj Servisleri, Adana Klima Montaj Servisi, Adana Klima Montaj Servisleri, Arçelik Klima Montaj Servisi Adana, Beko Klima Montaj Servisi Adana, Demirdöküm Klima Montaj Servisi Adana, Vestel Klima Montaj Servisi Adana, Aeg Klima Montaj Servisi Adana, Bosch Klima Montaj Servisi Adana, Ariston Klima Montaj Servisi Adana, Samsung Klima Montaj Servisi Adana, Siemens Klima Montaj Servisi Adana, Profilo Klima Montaj Servisi Adana, Fujitsu Klima Montaj Servisi Adana, Baymak Klima Montaj Servisi Adana, Sharp Klima Montaj Servisi Adana, Mitsubishi Klima Montaj Servisi Adana, Alaska Klima Montaj Servisi Adana, Aura Klima Montaj Servisi Adana, Adana Çukurova Klima Montaj Servisleri, Adana Yüreğir Klima Montaj Servisleri
Details the rise, fall and rise of the venture capital industry in the USA, the consequent implications on the environment Asia finds itself in, with the opportunity presenting itself.
...how quickly venture backed
technology companies market capitalization changed (grew) and whether there had
been a change in the “Time To Market Cap” during different periods of history. November 2014
0507 057 01 98 * Adana Klima Montaj Servisleri, Adana Klima Montaj Servisi, Adana Klima Montaj Servisleri, Arçelik Klima Montaj Servisi Adana, Beko Klima Montaj Servisi Adana, Demirdöküm Klima Montaj Servisi Adana, Vestel Klima Montaj Servisi Adana, Aeg Klima Montaj Servisi Adana, Bosch Klima Montaj Servisi Adana, Ariston Klima Montaj Servisi Adana, Samsung Klima Montaj Servisi Adana, Siemens Klima Montaj Servisi Adana, Profilo Klima Montaj Servisi Adana, Fujitsu Klima Montaj Servisi Adana, Baymak Klima Montaj Servisi Adana, Sharp Klima Montaj Servisi Adana, Mitsubishi Klima Montaj Servisi Adana, Alaska Klima Montaj Servisi Adana, Aura Klima Montaj Servisi Adana, Adana Çukurova Klima Montaj Servisleri, Adana Yüreğir Klima Montaj Servisleri
The latest collection of things we (Atomico) found interesting and important in tech and VC land, but that didn’t necessarily get the attention they deserve. We think of them as our hidden little gems. We’ll add to the collection over time, so bookmark the page and keep coming back for updates or to dig into the archive.
A look at the Venture Capital industry heading into 2020. Some have questioned whether the industry has a future. This deck does a detailed look at where the industry is and why the future of VC still looks bright.
The seed stage of the venture capital industry went through a boom cycle from 2006-2014 but has lately seen a sharp decline. What's happening? Is it temporary or are their structural problems? This deck answers that question.
The second report on the Israeli Internet industry, written in 2014. Highlights the changes in the industry since 2012: the growth, B2C strengths, the changing entrepreneurs and more.
The first report on the Israeli Internet industry, written in 2012. Sheds light on the biggest companies and the most important trends in one of the world's most important hi tech hotbeds.
10 trends that are shaping the world of mobile gamingPocket Gamer Biz
At Pocket Gamer Connects Helsinki 2014, Will Freeman gave us his 10 trends that are shaking up the world of mobile gaming.
1. PUBLISHING IS DEAD. LONG LIVE PUBLISHING SERVICES
2. YOU SHOULD GO TO FINLAND
3. THE RETURN OF PREMIUM?
4. ASIAN M&As ARE CONTINUING TO RESHAPE THE GLOBAL POWER BALANCE
5. THE FUTURE OF DISCOVERABILITY
6. BRAZIL’S CONTINUED RISE
7. IS PC STEALING MOBILE’S GRASS ROOTS STUDIOS?
8. HAS CROWDFUNDING LOST ITS WAY?
9. IPOS: ON THE RISE OR FAILING DISMALLY?
10. COULD BRAND MARKETING BE BACK?
Fundstrat Bitcoin & Blockchain presentation for Upfront SummitMark Suster
An equity analyst case for the value in cryptocurrencies. Thomas Lee of Fundstrat was lead equity researcher for JP Morgan before founding Fundstrat. He takes a market approach to valuing Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Here is his presentation for the #UpfrontSummit 2018.
Upfront Ventures surveys VC firms every year to gauge their views on technology markets. This year we asked people their views about cryptocurrencies & blockchain.
At the end of the year, we often reflect on the current state of the venture market in technology. We are sharing it with our broader community in the hope that someone will find it informative, interesting or at least entertaining.
The latest collection of things we (Atomico) found interesting and important in tech and VC land, but that didn’t necessarily get the attention they deserve. We think of them as our hidden little gems. We’ll add to the collection over time, so bookmark the page and keep coming back for updates or to dig into the archive.
A look at the Venture Capital industry heading into 2020. Some have questioned whether the industry has a future. This deck does a detailed look at where the industry is and why the future of VC still looks bright.
The seed stage of the venture capital industry went through a boom cycle from 2006-2014 but has lately seen a sharp decline. What's happening? Is it temporary or are their structural problems? This deck answers that question.
The second report on the Israeli Internet industry, written in 2014. Highlights the changes in the industry since 2012: the growth, B2C strengths, the changing entrepreneurs and more.
The first report on the Israeli Internet industry, written in 2012. Sheds light on the biggest companies and the most important trends in one of the world's most important hi tech hotbeds.
10 trends that are shaping the world of mobile gamingPocket Gamer Biz
At Pocket Gamer Connects Helsinki 2014, Will Freeman gave us his 10 trends that are shaking up the world of mobile gaming.
1. PUBLISHING IS DEAD. LONG LIVE PUBLISHING SERVICES
2. YOU SHOULD GO TO FINLAND
3. THE RETURN OF PREMIUM?
4. ASIAN M&As ARE CONTINUING TO RESHAPE THE GLOBAL POWER BALANCE
5. THE FUTURE OF DISCOVERABILITY
6. BRAZIL’S CONTINUED RISE
7. IS PC STEALING MOBILE’S GRASS ROOTS STUDIOS?
8. HAS CROWDFUNDING LOST ITS WAY?
9. IPOS: ON THE RISE OR FAILING DISMALLY?
10. COULD BRAND MARKETING BE BACK?
Fundstrat Bitcoin & Blockchain presentation for Upfront SummitMark Suster
An equity analyst case for the value in cryptocurrencies. Thomas Lee of Fundstrat was lead equity researcher for JP Morgan before founding Fundstrat. He takes a market approach to valuing Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Here is his presentation for the #UpfrontSummit 2018.
Upfront Ventures surveys VC firms every year to gauge their views on technology markets. This year we asked people their views about cryptocurrencies & blockchain.
At the end of the year, we often reflect on the current state of the venture market in technology. We are sharing it with our broader community in the hope that someone will find it informative, interesting or at least entertaining.
The Changing Structure of the Venture Capital IndustryMark Suster
I presented this deck at the 2014 PreMoney Conference. I wrote a blog post here that goes into more detail: http://bit.ly/ChangingVC
The video of the presentation I gave is here: http://youtu.be/5MClCBUjbbE
The VC industry is changing. The press has focused on the wrong story - crowd funding. The bigger story is the shift from public financing to private financing and the bifurcation of the venture industry. This presentation examines the case.
Summary of findings
2018 VC-backed fintech deals and funding set an annual record: In 2018, - VC-backed fintech companies raised $39.57B across 1,707 deals globally. Deals were up 15% year-over-year while funding surged 120% on the back of 52 mega-rounds ($100M+) worth $24.88B combined.
Fintech is happening on global scale with deals outside of core markets (US, UK, and China) accounting for 39% of deals: Fintech deal hubs are starting to emerge globally. The count of unique fintech startups raising funding topped an annual high of 1,463 companies, and the unique number of investors reached 2,745 boosted by an influx of corporate investors.
Early-stage deals, as a percentage, fell to a 5-year low as investors concentrated bets in perceived winners: Global seed and Series A fintech deals grew 5% on an annual basis in 2018, but fell as a percentage of total deals to 57%. US early-stage deals were flat YOY as investors concentrated their bets in established fintech unicorns.
There are 39 VC-backed fintech unicorns worth a combined $147.37B: Q4'18 saw five new unicorns births (Plaid, Brex, Monzo, DevotedHealth, and Toss) and two in the first month of Q1’19 (N26 and Confluent). The cohort’s total valuation in 2018 was boosted by a record year for megarounds to existing unicorns, including Gusto and Robinhood, among others.
F-Prime Capital prepared a market analysis for 2018's year-end discussion. We are sharing it with our broader community in the hope that someone will find in informative, interesting or at least entertaining.
Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs): The Class of 2017 - one year laterEY
In the first half of 2018, 86% of the leading initial coin offerings (ICOs) that listed on a cryptocurrency exchange in 2017 are below their initial listing price and a portfolio of these ICOs is down by 66% since the peak of the market at the beginning of this year, according to a study from EY, Initial Coin Offerings: The Class of 2017 – one year later, that examined the ICOs’ progress and investment returns.
Global Technology Trends & Top Ten Startup Hubs 2017Bernard Moon
Update report that provides an overview of general technology trends, global venture capital trends, and startup trends around the world. Snapshots of the top 10 startup hubs in the world: Silicon Valley, NYC, London, Stockholm, Shanghai, Tel Aviv, Beijing, Seoul, Boston, and Los Angeles.
White Star Capital - Canadian Venture Capital Landscape 2018Sanjay Zimmermann
In this second edition of our report, we aim to reiterate our enthusiasm for the Canadian Tech and Venture Capital ecosystem as well as touch upon a few additional topics.
In addition to sharing our excitement about Canada and expressing our belief that the ecosystem is stronger than ever, we look at a few new topics. We examine a few subsectors, larger round dynamics, VCCI and regional programs. We are also pleased to further explore one of Canada's key strengths: it's diversity and talent. Finally, we end with an updated deep dive on VC's and other investors making up the space.
Building a Raspberry Pi Robot with Dot NET 8, Blazor and SignalR - Slides Onl...Peter Gallagher
In this session delivered at Leeds IoT, I talk about how you can control a 3D printed Robot Arm with a Raspberry Pi, .NET 8, Blazor and SignalR.
I also show how you can use a Unity app on an Meta Quest 3 to control the arm VR too.
You can find the GitHub repo and workshop instructions here;
https://bit.ly/dotnetrobotgithub
Google Calendar is a versatile tool that allows users to manage their schedules and events effectively. With Google Calendar, you can create and organize calendars, set reminders for important events, and share your calendars with others. It also provides features like creating events, inviting attendees, and accessing your calendar from mobile devices. Additionally, Google Calendar allows you to embed calendars in websites or platforms like SlideShare, making it easier for others to view and interact with your schedules.
8. But let’s peel back the
onion to see what’s
really happening.
8 Image Credit: Freepik
9. 9
The number of Pre-Seed deals (<$1M) backed by VCs skyrocketed (600%) but
has cooled off by 1/3rd over the past three years.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US VC Number of Deals under $1M
3,374
488
3,543
2,144
Source: Pitchbook NVCA Venture Monitor 4Q’18
>600%
Cooled off
by >1/3
10. 10
The exact same phenomenon happened in the Seed market ($1-5M).
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US VC Number of $1-5M Deals
3,315
1,036
3,104
2,699
Source: Pitchbook NVCA Venture Monitor 4Q’18
>300%
Down ~20%
11. 11
And the number of Micro Funds raised has followed in lock step.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
# Funds and Capital Raised ($) for <$100M Funds
181
83
181
129
Source: Pitchbook NVCA Venture Monitor 4Q’18
2.2x
Down 30%
12. What is going on
at the seed stage?
!
12 Image Credit: Pexels
13. 13
For one thing, traditional Series A venture capital hasn’t meaningfully increased
investment pace over the past decade.
US VC Number of $5-10M Deals
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
1,118
687
Source: Pitchbook NVCA Venture Monitor 4Q’18
4%
CAGR
14. 14
Series B deal volume also has been fairly constant over the past decade.
US VC Number of $10-25M Deals
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*
1,103
643
Source: Pitchbook NVCA Venture Monitor 4Q’18
5%
CAGR
15. 15
As a result, we see a rise in the “Seed Extension” deals feeding into the Series A
pipeline and companies staying in seed phase for longer.
Source: Cendana Capital portfolio company data (with permission)
Time to Series A
Pre-2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
0.9
1.2
0.8
1.1
1.2 1.2
1.4
1.6
Number of Seed Extension Rounds
Pre-2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
69
45
52
39
28
11
8
9
Median years from Series Seed to A
16. 16
The Series A and B part of the market is very similar to how it was 15 years ago—
except with a 3x bigger top end of the funnel.
Series A
funds
Series A
funds
THEN NOW
Angel / Seed
Angel / pre-seed
Seed funds
Source: Upfront analysis
Series B
funds
Series B
funds
Bottom end of the funnel haven’t changed much
Top end of
the funnel is
now 3x larger
17. 17
While it’s true that there has been valuation creep for Series A and B…
US VC Median Pre-Money Valuation ($M) by Year
$0M
$15M
$30M
$45M
$60M
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*
Series A
Series B
Source: Pitchbook NVCA Venture Monitor 4Q’18
18. 18
…part of fund size increases has been about maintaining ownership levels.
US VC Series A Round Median Ownership
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1990s 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
25% 25% 26%
28%
29%
Methodology: For 2014-2018, divided Median Deal Size by Median Post-Money Valuation for Series A deals
Source: Pitchbook data for 2014-2018, Upfront analysis
35%+
19. !
19
For the best VC funds,
the upside case has
never been bigger.
Let’s zoom out and
I’ll explain.
Image Credit: Pexels
20. 20
We all know that capital going to startups has increased significantly in the past
five years (by 300%).
US VC Capital Invested by Deal Size ($B)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
$131B
$83B
$77B
$83B
$71B
$48B
Source: Pitchbook NVCA Venture Monitor 4Q’18
21. 21
Most of this capital increase, though, falls into three buckets that can be called
“mega-rounds.”
Source: Pitchbook NVCA Venture Monitor 4Q’18, Upfront analysis
$20B
Total
$40B
Total
$21B
Total
$61B in deals
over $100M
$81B in deals
over $50M
$50-
100M
$100M
-1B
$1B+
US VC Capital Invested by Deal Size in 2018 ($B)
22. 22
What really happened is that the IPO window was pushed out 5+ years
for the best companies and the dollars have shifted from public to private.
Old IPO
6-8 years
New IPO
10-12 years
$50M
$2B++
$
Raised
Prior
to
IPO
23. 23 Source: Pitchbook
3
$7M
$23M
$9M
$60M
5 6
$35M
$100M
$65M
$355M
VC $ Raised
Prior to IPO
Last Private
Market Valuation
Number of
Years Private
In the past, the best companies IPO’d in 6-7 years from inception. As a result the
value captured was all in the public markets.
Companies Founded Before 2000
24. 24
11
9 10
$1.7B
$10B
$4.9B
$15B
$4.4B
$31B
$19.9B
$72B
12
$1.2B
$7B
$370M
$1.5B
Note: Due to limited data set, included high-profile tech companies that are expected to IPO in 2019 (Uber, Lyft, Airbnb, Slack)
Source: Pitchbook
VC $ Raised
Prior to IPO
Last Private
Market Valuation
Number of
Years Private
But now the goalposts have moved and the best companies are staying private twice as
long. This is a massive opportunity for venture firms that have ownership and pro rata rights.
Companies Founded Since 2006
26. 26
Here is the “private IPO” phenomenon in numbers.
Source: Pitchbook NVCA Venture Monitor 4Q’18
0
50
100
150
200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
IPOs
Mega-rounds
($100M+ financings)
Total Mega-Round Count
198
104
79
109
125
85
58
43
79
82
27. 27
54 new companies raised at more than $1 billion valuation.
Number of Unicorn Births
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
3 4 4
9
11 12
42 43
22
34
54
Source: Pitchbook Unicorn Report 2018, Pitchbook analysis
28. 28
Just five years ago, $100M+ rounds accounted for just 13% of financings as
opposed to 47% in 2018. Traditional Venture Capital has only grown 14% per year.
Source: Pitchbook NVCA Venture Monitor 4Q’18
US VC Capital Invested by Deal Size ($B)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
70
41
$48B
$131B
GROWTH
Mega-rounds
≥$100M
6
61
VENTURE
<$100M rounds
14%
CAGR
60%
CAGR
29. 29
The private IPO trend seems to have gathered steam in 2014.
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
20
14
25
46
28
36
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
82
109
79
104
198
Source: Pitchbook NVCA Venture Monitor 4Q’18
US Mega-Round ($100M+) Financings by Year
30. 30
So in reality it seems the private capital market is now three fairly distinct
categories.
Venture Capital
Scale or Bust Private IPOs
Growth Capital
The Start
Seed Capital
20% of deals drive
80% of returns
31. 31
So while time-to-liquidity for VCs has been pushed out, the best VCs (and LPs) are compensated by
capturing more of the upside. Pro rata rights have become much more valuable in the best deals.
Series A 20%
Seed 10%
Which is why many
stage funds have set up
companion funds
to defend their
ownership through exit
Growth Funds
Opportunity Funds
SPVs
Target
Ownership
@ Exit
Structural Changes to Defend Ownership Through Exit
32. So no, Venture Capital is
not dead. Here are some
thoughts on why the
next decade should see
even more upside.
!
32 Image Credit: Freepik
33. Global Internet Users (Millions)
1999 2013 2018
4,200
2,800
250
33
In 1999, the US VC industry raised $53 billion for a nascent Internet population. 20
years later, we have 77% of US and 56% of the world online with $55 billion raised.
Source: World Bank; Internet World Stats; Pitchbook; Industry Ventures
US Internet Users (Millions)
1999 2013 2018
250
230
100
34. 34
Connection speeds in 2018 is a whopping 400 times faster than that in 1999.
Source: Akamai’s State of the Internet, Statista
1999 2014
United States
(Avg Speed, Mbps)
2017
50
Kbps
11.1 18.7
Dial Up
35. 35
Nearly everybody now has a computer in their pocket.
Source: Newzoo, GSMA
Global 27%
56%
United States
66%
72%
1999 2013 2017
N/A
N/A
Smartphone Penetration
36. 36
Because we’re all connected—when concepts work, they scale much faster and
become much more dominant than at any point in human history.
Source: Upfront analysis
Monthly Active Users (Millions)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1999 2013 2018
2,271
1,189
0
1,057
236
0 326
218
0
1,000
130
0 186
33
0
Not in existence 130
33 186
37. 37
And with everybody’s credit cards or banks now connected to tech platforms,
we’ve eliminated most purchase friction. We’re one tap away from buying online.
*Amazon user data is estimated as straight line from IPO (1997) to 2018 reported values
Source: Upfront Analysis, PayPal, Loup Ventures, BigCommerce
Total Active Users (Millions)
175
350
525
700
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
*
38. Most industry analysts haven't even begun to comprehend what an enormous shift 5G
speeds will bring. We anticipate enormous creative destruction and company creation.
!
38
Note: Represented AT&T’s average 3G and 4G download speed. 5G networks have the potential to be significantly faster but data is only available from simulated environments
Source: RootMetrics, Wikipedia, Upfront analysis
3G
4G
5G
2G
<1
Mbps
4
Mbps
25
Mbps ?
40. !
40
Traditional Seed & VC more valuable than ever.
Value has shifted from publics to privates but
skills in VC vs. Growth remain distinct.
We are all now broadband, mobile, social &
1-click to buy.
The pace of technology & networks will continue
to create enormous new opportunities.
Image Credit: Pexels