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Iran Economical State
and projections
2018-2019
Table of Contents
Topics
covered
Iran’s integration in global economy
Compensation trends
Outlook for 2019
Iran overall economy
Exchange rate developments
Oil exports
Iran Overall Economy
Economical Doctrine
President Rouhani’s economical doctrine:
• Stability in currency value
• Low inflation
JCPOA Starts in 2016
JCPOA Ends in 2018
JCPOA and Iran Economy
2016
2017
2018
Snapshot of Iran Economy
Economic Growth
7%
2018 Projection
-1.5%
2018
-3.6%
2019 Projection
Iran needs 8% GDP growth to create the number of jobs that are required to contain unemployment.
Sector Contribution to GDP
Service sector
contribution to
GDP: 53%
Inflation Trend
10%
2018 Projection
25%
2018
+30%
2019 Projection
The average Iranian family will lose purchasing power in the next 2 years.
Unemployment Trend
11.5%
2018 Projection
12.5%
2018
No projection
2019 Projection
labor-force participation rose from 39.5% in spring 2016 to 40.6% in spring 2017.
There are some 800,000 new entrants into the job market every year.
Youth Unemployment
Youth Unemployment: 25%
According to official statistics 40% of
Iran’s university graduates fail to find a
job in their own field of expertise
The government’s success in reducing
unemployment will depend on its
ability to grow employment intensive
sectors such as agriculture and
services, especially tourism.
Job Creation
Service and
Agriculture
Non-oil Exports Tourism IT Start-ups
the government’s
success in reducing
unemployment
will depend on its
ability to grow
employment intensive
sectors such as
agriculture and
services
The devaluation of the
Rial has made Iranian
exports more
competitive, hence
there will
be an impetus from
growing non-oil
exports.
Tourism (including
health tourism) which
will generate jobs and
also economic impetus
in provincial areas. The
growth of the tourism
sector will also include
an increase in
domestic tourism.
Would offer new
opportunities to the
educated youth.
Result
Exchange Rate Developments
Exchange Rates
Governmental
Rate
Secondary
Market (Nima)
Free Market
Rial 42,000 for the
basic imports, i.e.
foodstuffs, medicine
and
medical supplies
Where exporters sell
their hard currency
earnings to importers –
also known as the
Nima rate.
Used for all hard
currency demands that
cannot be met with the
above two rates.
Exchange Rate
3800 Rial
2018 Projection
4200 Rial
2018
5800 Rial
2019 Projection
4400 Rial 10300 Rial 10000 Rial
Official rate
Free market
Oil Exports
Inflation Trend
No projection
2018 Projection
2.7 mbpd
2018
+1.6 mbpd
2019 Projection
Iran will lose 1/10 its budget volume in 2019.
Significant Reduction Exemptions (SREs)
SREs will be able to buy Iranian
oil for 180 days. The question
whether these SREs will be
renewed will depend on the
overall world market conditions
in six months and also on US-
Saudi relations.
Iran’s Integration in Global Economy
Financial Transactions
European SPV
Channel
Asian countries
+ Russia
Iran Financial
Transactions
Only European
SMEs through
SPV
SMEs and
enterprises
independently
SPV
Pass and Implement
Oil for Goods
Iran – EU Trade
Compensation Trends
Compensation Trends
Monthly Base
Salary
Annual Total
Cash
2017-2018 to 2018-2019
2017-2018 to 2018-2019
+10.5%
+11.6%
Outlook for 2019
Outlook for 2019
Government
Survey
+20%
+12 to 28%
Thank You

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Iran Economical State in 2018 & 2019