The document analyzes opportunities in the EU biofuels market. It notes that EU biofuels policies have driven strong growth but fundamentals are challenging. Good biofuels projects require lower costs, product differentiation, and control over the value chain. Size and experience matter as the market becomes more competitive and consolidation is expected. Opportunities remain for independent projects that can secure feedstock and exploit niches.

1. Biofuel Opportunities June, 2009 STRICTLY PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL

2. Agenda 1 Introduction and status of EU biofuels market 3 2 Identifying biofuels opportunities 14

3. Agenda 1 Introduction and status of EU biofuels market 3 2 Identifying biofuels opportunities 14

5. The EU incentives have been met with an enthusiastic response in biodiesel … Source: EBB, Europa, CCC EU 25 totals (Million Tonnes) Capacity 2005: 5.1 U/C 2.6 Planned: 7.9 Announced: 2.4 Total: 18.0 2010 demand (MS targets) 11.2 2010 demand (5.75%) 10.5

6. … and, to a lesser extent, in bioethanol Source: EBB, Europa, CCC EU 25 totals (Million Tonnes) Capacity 2005: 1.5 U/C 1.9 Planned: 2.8 Announced: 3.3 Total: 9.6 2010 demand (MS targets) 7.3 2010 demand (5.75%) 10.7

10. Feedstock has long been flagged as an issue for biodiesel 33% 34% 71% 79% 121% 2010 volume implied by 5.75% target 2005 EU25 biodiesel production 1 1 Source: Frost & Sullivan Sources for chart: UKRA, US Department of Agriculture, CCC estimates Vegetable oil and animal fat production, 2004/5 EU25 target % of world market

11. Recent commodity price dynamics are testing for biodiesel Source: Reuters

12. Although ethanol does not face the same availability problems, current pricing is challenging Source: Reuters Source:

14. Agenda 1 Introduction and status of EU biofuels market 3 2 Identifying biofuels opportunities 14

17. “ Good” project schematic Refinery/ distribution Port Crop-growing hinterland Integrated industrial site to share services and use co-products Project

21. Size matters – but who wins? Feedstock supply Crushing Biodiesel refining Bioethanol production Distribution and blending Marketing Participants The biofuels value chain Agriculture majors Independents Oil majors Chemicals majors Fuel traders/ distributors Supermarkets ?