Let me apply Bayes' theorem to determine the conditional probability of market entry given the indicator:
P(A|I) = P(I|A) * P(A) / P(I)
Where:
P(A) = Prior probability of market entry = ?
P(I|A) = Probability of observing the indicator, given market entry = ?
P(I) = Prior probability of observing the indicator = ?
By applying the known values and solving the equation, I can determine the conditional probability P(A|I) that answers your question. Please let me know if you need any of the assumptions or calculations explained further.
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