Presentation given at the Crowd management conference, Stavern (Norway) May 10th-12th, 2009. Inroducing the initiation/ escaltion model of collective violence

1. Systematic and structured
Initiation and escalation of observations
collective violence:
a comparative observational study of protest and • 1986 – 1989 in the Netherlands and during Euro ‘88
football events (Germany)
• Over 700 observation hours (78 football matches
and 139 protest events)
Otto M.J. Adang • Focusing on intergroup interactions
Stavern, May 10 – 12, 2009 • Quantitative analysis
Research questions Main messages
• What happens: who uses violence, how many, what • Systematic observations of collective violence: it can
type of violence, against whom, under what be done
circumstances, what response? • The importance of interaction
• Distinguishing between initiation and escalation of
• What factors influence the initiation and escalation collective violence
of violence? • The link between theory and practice:
– Implications
– examples
Maximum number of violent individuals per bout Triggers for violent initiatives
Pe rce ntage of initiative s
60
80
P e r c e n ta g e o f v i o l e n t
70 50
60 40
Protesters (N=138)
50 30
b o u ts
Protest (N=138) Fans (N=290)
40 20
Football (N =262)
30 10
20
0
10
no n
no c e
no een
r
me s tic
ts
0
mp s
ge
an titio
c o ur e
en
n
ma trig
i
ya
ts
on
e
ev
as
1 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 49 50 or over
ag
h
tc
e
lic
Number of individuals
po
1

2. Main conclusions
Public order management
• initiation of violence:
– “frictions” • need to observe (possible frictions, early
– “young male syndrome” signals)
• escalation of violence: • need to communicate (avoid frictions)
– opportunity/ perception of risk • need to build rapport/ relationship (avoid
– ingroup/ outgroup mechanisms frictions, increase perception of risk, early
signals)
• normal social mechanisms are operating, but
• need to differentiate (avoid us vs them)
influence of alcohol and drugs
• need for focused, timely interventions
Practical applications
• Policing protest and unrest in Amsterdam: “peace
units” since 1997
• Policing Euro 2000: friendly and firm low profile
approach
• Policing football in Arnhem: “From a lot of blue to
clever blue” (2003)
• Crowd management of festivities in Nijmegen (2004)
• Policing Euro 2004, WC 2006, Euro 2008
• Police peer reviews (2006)
Incidents (observer data)
12
10
% of samples
8
6
4
2
0
NL/ B 2000 Portugal 2004 NRW 2006
2000: Adang & Cuvelier (2001); 2004 Stott & Adang (2004); 2006: Schreiber & Adang (2007)
2