This document summarizes and provides commentary on the book "INFLATION NATION: Wise Investing in a Foolish Age" by Peter Schiff. The book discusses the risks of inflation and how to invest wisely given those risks. It is divided into three sections: the return of stagflation, a world of funny money and the inflation time bomb, and an inflation survival guide. The author believes inflation will rise due to currency debasement rather than economic growth. He recommends investing in assets that hold value during inflation like gold, silver, real estate, and commodities. The book provides strategies and investment options to maximize returns in an inflationary environment.
Credit Suisse Group reported a net profit of CHF 368 million in the first quarter of 2002, rebounding from a net loss in the previous quarter. The Group's net operating profit, excluding amortization and goodwill, increased 11% quarter-over-quarter to CHF 686 million. Private Banking and Corporate & Retail Banking performed well, while insurance businesses achieved above-average growth but their investment income was impacted by weak equity markets. Credit Suisse First Boston saw substantial improvement in results due to cost reductions and strong market shares. Overall, the Group benefited from synergies following its business reorganization in 2001.
Sl12 keynote - will economic growth return - finalcabotmoney
The document summarizes Rob Lutts' presentation at the 23rd Annual Investment Conference & Luncheon on the themes of economic growth returning in 2013, governments' fiscal crisis status, and Cabot's top three investment themes. Lutts discusses that slowly improving global economics, government solutions to sovereign debt crises through currency debasement, and attractive stock valuations provide opportunities for investors willing to take risk. Currency debasement through money printing risks inflation increasing in the next 2-3 years.
S IMMO AG held a conference call to discuss its Q1 2012 results. Key highlights included:
- Rental income declined slightly year-over-year but FFO increased significantly.
- The portfolio occupancy rate was 93.1% with over 6,800 tenants across 1.36 million square meters of space.
- Residential property sales in Germany and Austria generated gains of €0.7 million.
- NAV per share rose to €7.06 and EPRA NAV rose to €8.88 per share, both up from year-end 2011.
- Bank debt was €1.22 billion with a loan-to-value ratio of 60%
The document summarizes the February 2012 outlook from The Henley Group. It discusses the ongoing negotiations between Greece and its hedge fund creditors over restructuring Greek sovereign debt. It also summarizes the European Central Bank providing nearly half a trillion euros to the European banking system to relieve financing pressures as several countries and banks have had their credit ratings downgraded. The outlook remains negative on the US dollar, British pound, and euro over the medium to long term.
Fortune Minerals Ltd. September 2012 Investor PresentationCompany Spotlight
Fortune Minerals Limited is an emerging strategic metal and coal producer with two late-stage projects - the NICO gold-cobalt-bismuth-copper project and the Arctos anthracite project. The Arctos project is one of the largest and most advanced Canadian anthracite coal development projects, with over $90 million spent and a joint venture with POSCO, one of the world's largest steel producers. It has significant measured, indicated, and inferred coal resources as well as proven and probable reserves. Global demand for metallurgical coal is expected to significantly outpace supply growth over the next decade.
The document summarizes recent economic data from Sweden that points to a slowing economy. Exports are declining, the domestic economy is weakening, and unemployment is starting to rise. This suggests that economic growth will slow further in the coming quarters. The central bank is expected to cut interest rates in April to support the economy, and there is an increased chance they may act sooner given downside risks.
The document provides a summary and outlook for the Australian commercial and industrial property market in 2012. It discusses that:
1) The Sydney industrial market will continue to see demand shift towards larger warehouse facilities, while smaller warehouses and unit estates will face pressure on rental rates and vacancy due to low business confidence.
2) The Canberra industrial market is generally stable, but saw rents and values fall in late-2011 due to a slowing construction sector. Rents are expected to remain flat in 2012 while investors remain cautious and owner-occupiers support the market.
3) Overall, 2012 will be a challenging year for commercial property as uncertainty remains, but local knowledge will be important to navigate the risks, such as potential
WCM Gold Investment Presentation In EnglishHaroldOlmstead
The document promotes an investment in GOLD through World Capital Mutual. It claims they can offer a guaranteed 10% monthly return on a minimum $100,000 investment. The investment is said to be risk-free as capital is protected and the account can be liquidated anytime. It argues that gold increases in value during economic turmoil when currencies devalue and acts as a safe haven investment unlike stocks, bonds, or real estate. World Capital Mutual controls gold mining operations and buys gold at deep discounts, generating returns by selling to refineries.
Credit Suisse Group reported a net profit of CHF 368 million in the first quarter of 2002, rebounding from a net loss in the previous quarter. The Group's net operating profit, excluding amortization and goodwill, increased 11% quarter-over-quarter to CHF 686 million. Private Banking and Corporate & Retail Banking performed well, while insurance businesses achieved above-average growth but their investment income was impacted by weak equity markets. Credit Suisse First Boston saw substantial improvement in results due to cost reductions and strong market shares. Overall, the Group benefited from synergies following its business reorganization in 2001.
Sl12 keynote - will economic growth return - finalcabotmoney
The document summarizes Rob Lutts' presentation at the 23rd Annual Investment Conference & Luncheon on the themes of economic growth returning in 2013, governments' fiscal crisis status, and Cabot's top three investment themes. Lutts discusses that slowly improving global economics, government solutions to sovereign debt crises through currency debasement, and attractive stock valuations provide opportunities for investors willing to take risk. Currency debasement through money printing risks inflation increasing in the next 2-3 years.
S IMMO AG held a conference call to discuss its Q1 2012 results. Key highlights included:
- Rental income declined slightly year-over-year but FFO increased significantly.
- The portfolio occupancy rate was 93.1% with over 6,800 tenants across 1.36 million square meters of space.
- Residential property sales in Germany and Austria generated gains of €0.7 million.
- NAV per share rose to €7.06 and EPRA NAV rose to €8.88 per share, both up from year-end 2011.
- Bank debt was €1.22 billion with a loan-to-value ratio of 60%
The document summarizes the February 2012 outlook from The Henley Group. It discusses the ongoing negotiations between Greece and its hedge fund creditors over restructuring Greek sovereign debt. It also summarizes the European Central Bank providing nearly half a trillion euros to the European banking system to relieve financing pressures as several countries and banks have had their credit ratings downgraded. The outlook remains negative on the US dollar, British pound, and euro over the medium to long term.
Fortune Minerals Ltd. September 2012 Investor PresentationCompany Spotlight
Fortune Minerals Limited is an emerging strategic metal and coal producer with two late-stage projects - the NICO gold-cobalt-bismuth-copper project and the Arctos anthracite project. The Arctos project is one of the largest and most advanced Canadian anthracite coal development projects, with over $90 million spent and a joint venture with POSCO, one of the world's largest steel producers. It has significant measured, indicated, and inferred coal resources as well as proven and probable reserves. Global demand for metallurgical coal is expected to significantly outpace supply growth over the next decade.
The document summarizes recent economic data from Sweden that points to a slowing economy. Exports are declining, the domestic economy is weakening, and unemployment is starting to rise. This suggests that economic growth will slow further in the coming quarters. The central bank is expected to cut interest rates in April to support the economy, and there is an increased chance they may act sooner given downside risks.
The document provides a summary and outlook for the Australian commercial and industrial property market in 2012. It discusses that:
1) The Sydney industrial market will continue to see demand shift towards larger warehouse facilities, while smaller warehouses and unit estates will face pressure on rental rates and vacancy due to low business confidence.
2) The Canberra industrial market is generally stable, but saw rents and values fall in late-2011 due to a slowing construction sector. Rents are expected to remain flat in 2012 while investors remain cautious and owner-occupiers support the market.
3) Overall, 2012 will be a challenging year for commercial property as uncertainty remains, but local knowledge will be important to navigate the risks, such as potential
WCM Gold Investment Presentation In EnglishHaroldOlmstead
The document promotes an investment in GOLD through World Capital Mutual. It claims they can offer a guaranteed 10% monthly return on a minimum $100,000 investment. The investment is said to be risk-free as capital is protected and the account can be liquidated anytime. It argues that gold increases in value during economic turmoil when currencies devalue and acts as a safe haven investment unlike stocks, bonds, or real estate. World Capital Mutual controls gold mining operations and buys gold at deep discounts, generating returns by selling to refineries.
Avant Garde Wealth Mgmt quarterly letter - 1209Gaurav Jalan
The document discusses gold as an investment option in the current macroeconomic environment. It summarizes that central banks have significantly expanded their balance sheets since 2008, fueling asset inflation and raising gold prices. While gold does not generate cash flows, its limited supply growth supports its role as a store of value. The document recommends allocating some portion of investments to gold to hedge against risks from large-scale monetary policies. It also analyzes India's gold and stock market trends and where the current market cycle may be relative to past bear markets.
The Case for Promoting Debit Cards: Why They Are Still a Growth ProductPaul McAdam
While debit cards have been commonly used to make consumer retail purchases for more than a decade, many financial institutions may have placed less priority on their debit card business in wake of regulatory changes. After rapid annual growth over the past decade, growth appears to have plateaued for many institutions in the last year or two. However, debit cards remain a profitable product to promote for smaller financial institutions as demonstrated by FIS research findings and supporting case studies with a community bank and credit union outlined in this research brief.
First Data Corporation is a leader in electronic commerce and payment services. In 2003, it acquired Concord EFS, which added the largest PIN-debit network in the US. The acquisition increased First Data's estimated revenues to over $10 billion in 2004. First Data processes billions of transactions annually worldwide through its Western Union money transfer network and other payment services. It aims to continue growing revenues and expanding globally while reducing costs and bringing more efficiencies and choices to customers.
The document summarizes an economic analysis predicting a "W-shaped" recovery over the next few years for the US economy. It states that massive fiscal stimulus financed by monetary easing could lead to GDP growth resuming in late 2009, but this stimulus could also cause inflation and further monetary tightening, risking another recession in 2011-2012. Downside risks to the economy remain substantial in the near-term, with GDP forecast to contract sharply again in Q1 2009 and several indicators like housing remaining weak.
Indian Economy: The Curious Case of Household Savings-Investment GapAshutosh Bhargava
1) Household savings rates in India peaked in 2008 but have since experienced a steep decline, with the household savings-investment gap currently at its lowest level since the late 1980s.
2) This decline in household savings has negatively impacted potential growth by reducing capital availability to the private sector and decreasing overall capital productivity.
3) Policymakers should pursue more accommodative monetary policy to further support balance sheet repair and strengthen India's domestic macroeconomic profile while foreign liquidity remains favorable globally. Prioritizing growth over inflation targeting will help maximize the current window of opportunity.
Indian Economy: the curious case of household savings-investment gapAshutosh Bhargava
1) The document discusses India's declining household savings rate and growing household savings-investment gap in recent years.
2) Historically, Indian households had the largest positive savings-investment gap, but this has declined significantly in recent years as households have invested more in gold and real estate.
3) The declining household savings-investment gap has negatively impacted India's potential growth by reducing capital availability to the private sector and decreasing overall capital productivity.
This document provides an overview of Centurion Apartment REIT, which invests in income-producing apartment properties in Canada. Some key points:
- Centurion Apartment REIT aims to provide steady monthly income distributions of 8% annually and potential capital growth by investing in rental apartments.
- Investing in apartment REITs offers advantages like reliable income, investment growth, lower volatility compared to stocks, and inflation protection.
- Private REITs like Centurion Apartment REIT may exhibit more stable pricing with lower volatility than publicly-traded REITs which can experience stock market fluctuations.
- Historical data shows the ICREIM/IPD Canada Residential "Apartment" Property
The Curious Case of Savings-Investment Gap and its Implications for IndiaAshutosh Bhargava
Their has been a remarkable shift in the savings-investment gap at the global level as well as in India. While this has had a tangible impact on global potential growth, the recovery is likely to differ from one country to another. In the Indian context, the recovery in trend growth is likely to be much higher than what is generally peceived and thus requires a more proactive response from policy makers, especially the monetary authorities.
The document provides an overview of Banco Santander's financial performance for the first nine months of 2011. Some key points:
- Profits were down 13% compared to the same period last year, impacted by lower revenues from financial markets and higher provisions for loan losses in the current economic environment.
- However, the bank has maintained solid basic revenue generation driven by growth in Latin America, consumer finance, and the acquisition of BZ WBK.
- Liquidity and capital positions remain strong, with capital gains expected in Q4 that will be used to further strengthen the balance sheet.
- Expenses are being tightly controlled to offset pressure on revenues, though costs related to acquisitions
Apresentação de resultados 3 T 2011 Banco SantanderBANCO SANTANDER
The document provides an overview of Banco Santander's financial performance for the first nine months of 2011. Some key points:
- Profits were down 13% compared to the same period last year, impacted by lower revenues from financial markets and higher provisions for loan losses in the current economic environment.
- However, the bank has maintained solid basic revenue generation from net interest income, fees, and insurance. Revenues increased 6% overall compared to peers.
- While macroeconomic conditions worsened in the third quarter of 2011 due to factors like the sovereign debt crisis, Santander has a good liquidity and capital position with a solid balance sheet.
- Capital gains expected in the fourth quarter will
The document summarizes the performance of the Odey European fund for December 2014. The fund returned +11.7% for the month compared to the MSCI Europe return of -1.4%. Active currency positions contributed significantly to returns, particularly positions in AUD/USD and USD/ZAR. Short equity positions also contributed positively, while long equity positions made a smaller but still significant contribution. The manager believes a slowdown in the Chinese economy and falling commodity prices will negatively impact commodity-producing economies and their trading partners, leading to a global recession. Central banks have limited ability to counter this downturn through monetary policy. The manager remains short-biased on equities and bearish on commodity-related sectors and EM
1. The document discusses various theories related to the quantity theory of money, including the Fisher Identity and the Cambridge Cash Balances equation.
2. It analyzes the components and assumptions of these theories, such as the transactions demand for money being proportional to aggregate transactions.
3. Criticisms of the older quantity theories are presented, including that they assumed full employment and an exogenously determined money supply, whereas Keynes argued resources are often underemployed and the money supply is endogenous.
This document summarizes an investment outlook letter written by Bill Gross of PIMCO. The letter discusses how central banks and governments use "haircuts" as a hidden way to reduce debt levels and transfer wealth. It identifies four main types of haircuts: (1) negative real interest rates, (2) inflation/currency devaluation, (3) capital controls, and (4) outright default. While assets may appear to be "money good," the letter argues they are not truly "good money" due to these haircuts reducing purchasing power over time. It recommends gradually reducing risk in portfolios in 2013 to avoid excessive haircuts.
AMI Perspective On Current Economic Crisis March 09jbenedict3
The document provides an overview of the current economic crisis from the perspective of AMI Investment Management. It discusses [1] how the crisis developed from the boom brought on by low interest rates and easy credit conditions, leading to overindebtedness; [2] the state of overindebtedness among households, firms, and governments; and [3] how the crisis unfolded as default rates rose and asset prices fell, destabilizing the financial system. It examines events like the Bear Stearns and AIG bailouts and the passage of TARP. The document considers where the economy and markets may be headed as the massive deleveraging process continues.
Q4 2008 financial results were down year-over-year due to difficult economic conditions. Revenue declined 7% to $2.04 billion, while EPS fell 9% to $0.41 per share. Free cash flow remained strong at $525 million. Marketplaces revenue declined 10% to $1.27 billion due to weaker global transaction volumes. PayPal revenue grew 11% to $623 million while total payment volume increased 14% to $16 billion. The company delivered solid results despite challenges in the global economy.
The document summarizes the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act and its implementation. It discusses how the financial system is now safer and stronger with banks holding more capital. Consumers are better protected and empowered with new tools from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. However, opponents have tried to roll back and delay reforms through proposed bills and legal challenges. Regulators continue moving forward with rulemaking to balance timely implementation with care.
Louis Boulanger- Gold rises against fiat abuse 111114Symposium
Louis Boulanger presented at The Gold Symposium 2011 on the abuse of fiat currencies and how gold ownership offers protection. He summarized that all currencies are being debased to zero potentially, and that gold provides protection from ongoing fiat currency insanity and delusion until the end of the unsound monetary system. He argued that without currencies being redeemable for gold, today's monetary system relies entirely on confidence in governments and their ability to repay debt, which is not guaranteed and the system could collapse.
A Target Retirement Income Plan is a nonqualified, supplemental, after-tax executive retirement benefit program that changes the focus from return on investment to certainty of predictable income in retirement.
Agcapita February 2011 Update - Two ways to be fooledPetrocapita
As Kierkegaard elegantly pointed out, "There are two ways to be fooled: One is to believe what isn't so; the other is to refuse to believe what is so." The problem of being fooled "by believing what isn't so" appears to be endemic in mainstream economic circles. Increasingly, we see the panic of central bankers and politicians in the thrall of the mistaken belief that the mere act of printing money can conjure wealth and sustainable growth into existence that this nostrum has stopped working. Agcapita is Canada's only RRSP and TFSA eligible farmland fund and is part of a family of funds with over $100 million in assets under management. Agcapita believes farmland is a safe investment, that supply is shrinking and that unprecedented demand for "food, feed and fuel" will continue to move crop prices higher over the long-term. Agcapita created the Farmland Investment Partnership to allow investors to add professionally managed farmland to their portfolios.
Avant Garde Wealth Mgmt quarterly letter - 1209Gaurav Jalan
The document discusses gold as an investment option in the current macroeconomic environment. It summarizes that central banks have significantly expanded their balance sheets since 2008, fueling asset inflation and raising gold prices. While gold does not generate cash flows, its limited supply growth supports its role as a store of value. The document recommends allocating some portion of investments to gold to hedge against risks from large-scale monetary policies. It also analyzes India's gold and stock market trends and where the current market cycle may be relative to past bear markets.
The Case for Promoting Debit Cards: Why They Are Still a Growth ProductPaul McAdam
While debit cards have been commonly used to make consumer retail purchases for more than a decade, many financial institutions may have placed less priority on their debit card business in wake of regulatory changes. After rapid annual growth over the past decade, growth appears to have plateaued for many institutions in the last year or two. However, debit cards remain a profitable product to promote for smaller financial institutions as demonstrated by FIS research findings and supporting case studies with a community bank and credit union outlined in this research brief.
First Data Corporation is a leader in electronic commerce and payment services. In 2003, it acquired Concord EFS, which added the largest PIN-debit network in the US. The acquisition increased First Data's estimated revenues to over $10 billion in 2004. First Data processes billions of transactions annually worldwide through its Western Union money transfer network and other payment services. It aims to continue growing revenues and expanding globally while reducing costs and bringing more efficiencies and choices to customers.
The document summarizes an economic analysis predicting a "W-shaped" recovery over the next few years for the US economy. It states that massive fiscal stimulus financed by monetary easing could lead to GDP growth resuming in late 2009, but this stimulus could also cause inflation and further monetary tightening, risking another recession in 2011-2012. Downside risks to the economy remain substantial in the near-term, with GDP forecast to contract sharply again in Q1 2009 and several indicators like housing remaining weak.
Indian Economy: The Curious Case of Household Savings-Investment GapAshutosh Bhargava
1) Household savings rates in India peaked in 2008 but have since experienced a steep decline, with the household savings-investment gap currently at its lowest level since the late 1980s.
2) This decline in household savings has negatively impacted potential growth by reducing capital availability to the private sector and decreasing overall capital productivity.
3) Policymakers should pursue more accommodative monetary policy to further support balance sheet repair and strengthen India's domestic macroeconomic profile while foreign liquidity remains favorable globally. Prioritizing growth over inflation targeting will help maximize the current window of opportunity.
Indian Economy: the curious case of household savings-investment gapAshutosh Bhargava
1) The document discusses India's declining household savings rate and growing household savings-investment gap in recent years.
2) Historically, Indian households had the largest positive savings-investment gap, but this has declined significantly in recent years as households have invested more in gold and real estate.
3) The declining household savings-investment gap has negatively impacted India's potential growth by reducing capital availability to the private sector and decreasing overall capital productivity.
This document provides an overview of Centurion Apartment REIT, which invests in income-producing apartment properties in Canada. Some key points:
- Centurion Apartment REIT aims to provide steady monthly income distributions of 8% annually and potential capital growth by investing in rental apartments.
- Investing in apartment REITs offers advantages like reliable income, investment growth, lower volatility compared to stocks, and inflation protection.
- Private REITs like Centurion Apartment REIT may exhibit more stable pricing with lower volatility than publicly-traded REITs which can experience stock market fluctuations.
- Historical data shows the ICREIM/IPD Canada Residential "Apartment" Property
The Curious Case of Savings-Investment Gap and its Implications for IndiaAshutosh Bhargava
Their has been a remarkable shift in the savings-investment gap at the global level as well as in India. While this has had a tangible impact on global potential growth, the recovery is likely to differ from one country to another. In the Indian context, the recovery in trend growth is likely to be much higher than what is generally peceived and thus requires a more proactive response from policy makers, especially the monetary authorities.
The document provides an overview of Banco Santander's financial performance for the first nine months of 2011. Some key points:
- Profits were down 13% compared to the same period last year, impacted by lower revenues from financial markets and higher provisions for loan losses in the current economic environment.
- However, the bank has maintained solid basic revenue generation driven by growth in Latin America, consumer finance, and the acquisition of BZ WBK.
- Liquidity and capital positions remain strong, with capital gains expected in Q4 that will be used to further strengthen the balance sheet.
- Expenses are being tightly controlled to offset pressure on revenues, though costs related to acquisitions
Apresentação de resultados 3 T 2011 Banco SantanderBANCO SANTANDER
The document provides an overview of Banco Santander's financial performance for the first nine months of 2011. Some key points:
- Profits were down 13% compared to the same period last year, impacted by lower revenues from financial markets and higher provisions for loan losses in the current economic environment.
- However, the bank has maintained solid basic revenue generation from net interest income, fees, and insurance. Revenues increased 6% overall compared to peers.
- While macroeconomic conditions worsened in the third quarter of 2011 due to factors like the sovereign debt crisis, Santander has a good liquidity and capital position with a solid balance sheet.
- Capital gains expected in the fourth quarter will
The document summarizes the performance of the Odey European fund for December 2014. The fund returned +11.7% for the month compared to the MSCI Europe return of -1.4%. Active currency positions contributed significantly to returns, particularly positions in AUD/USD and USD/ZAR. Short equity positions also contributed positively, while long equity positions made a smaller but still significant contribution. The manager believes a slowdown in the Chinese economy and falling commodity prices will negatively impact commodity-producing economies and their trading partners, leading to a global recession. Central banks have limited ability to counter this downturn through monetary policy. The manager remains short-biased on equities and bearish on commodity-related sectors and EM
1. The document discusses various theories related to the quantity theory of money, including the Fisher Identity and the Cambridge Cash Balances equation.
2. It analyzes the components and assumptions of these theories, such as the transactions demand for money being proportional to aggregate transactions.
3. Criticisms of the older quantity theories are presented, including that they assumed full employment and an exogenously determined money supply, whereas Keynes argued resources are often underemployed and the money supply is endogenous.
This document summarizes an investment outlook letter written by Bill Gross of PIMCO. The letter discusses how central banks and governments use "haircuts" as a hidden way to reduce debt levels and transfer wealth. It identifies four main types of haircuts: (1) negative real interest rates, (2) inflation/currency devaluation, (3) capital controls, and (4) outright default. While assets may appear to be "money good," the letter argues they are not truly "good money" due to these haircuts reducing purchasing power over time. It recommends gradually reducing risk in portfolios in 2013 to avoid excessive haircuts.
AMI Perspective On Current Economic Crisis March 09jbenedict3
The document provides an overview of the current economic crisis from the perspective of AMI Investment Management. It discusses [1] how the crisis developed from the boom brought on by low interest rates and easy credit conditions, leading to overindebtedness; [2] the state of overindebtedness among households, firms, and governments; and [3] how the crisis unfolded as default rates rose and asset prices fell, destabilizing the financial system. It examines events like the Bear Stearns and AIG bailouts and the passage of TARP. The document considers where the economy and markets may be headed as the massive deleveraging process continues.
Q4 2008 financial results were down year-over-year due to difficult economic conditions. Revenue declined 7% to $2.04 billion, while EPS fell 9% to $0.41 per share. Free cash flow remained strong at $525 million. Marketplaces revenue declined 10% to $1.27 billion due to weaker global transaction volumes. PayPal revenue grew 11% to $623 million while total payment volume increased 14% to $16 billion. The company delivered solid results despite challenges in the global economy.
The document summarizes the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act and its implementation. It discusses how the financial system is now safer and stronger with banks holding more capital. Consumers are better protected and empowered with new tools from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. However, opponents have tried to roll back and delay reforms through proposed bills and legal challenges. Regulators continue moving forward with rulemaking to balance timely implementation with care.
Louis Boulanger- Gold rises against fiat abuse 111114Symposium
Louis Boulanger presented at The Gold Symposium 2011 on the abuse of fiat currencies and how gold ownership offers protection. He summarized that all currencies are being debased to zero potentially, and that gold provides protection from ongoing fiat currency insanity and delusion until the end of the unsound monetary system. He argued that without currencies being redeemable for gold, today's monetary system relies entirely on confidence in governments and their ability to repay debt, which is not guaranteed and the system could collapse.
A Target Retirement Income Plan is a nonqualified, supplemental, after-tax executive retirement benefit program that changes the focus from return on investment to certainty of predictable income in retirement.
Agcapita February 2011 Update - Two ways to be fooledPetrocapita
As Kierkegaard elegantly pointed out, "There are two ways to be fooled: One is to believe what isn't so; the other is to refuse to believe what is so." The problem of being fooled "by believing what isn't so" appears to be endemic in mainstream economic circles. Increasingly, we see the panic of central bankers and politicians in the thrall of the mistaken belief that the mere act of printing money can conjure wealth and sustainable growth into existence that this nostrum has stopped working. Agcapita is Canada's only RRSP and TFSA eligible farmland fund and is part of a family of funds with over $100 million in assets under management. Agcapita believes farmland is a safe investment, that supply is shrinking and that unprecedented demand for "food, feed and fuel" will continue to move crop prices higher over the long-term. Agcapita created the Farmland Investment Partnership to allow investors to add professionally managed farmland to their portfolios.
Similar to Inflation Nation Presentation [Compatibility Mode] (20)
Confirmation of Payee (CoP) is a vital security measure adopted by financial institutions and payment service providers. Its core purpose is to confirm that the recipient’s name matches the information provided by the sender during a banking transaction, ensuring that funds are transferred to the correct payment account.
Confirmation of Payee was built to tackle the increasing numbers of APP Fraud and in the landscape of UK banking, the spectre of APP fraud looms large. In 2022, over £1.2 billion was stolen by fraudsters through authorised and unauthorised fraud, equivalent to more than £2,300 every minute. This statistic emphasises the urgent need for robust security measures like CoP. While over £1.2 billion was stolen through fraud in 2022, there was an eight per cent reduction compared to 2021 which highlights the positive outcomes obtained from the implementation of Confirmation of Payee. The number of fraud cases across the UK also decreased by four per cent to nearly three million cases during the same period; latest statistics from UK Finance.
In essence, Confirmation of Payee plays a pivotal role in digital banking, guaranteeing the flawless execution of banking transactions. It stands as a guardian against fraud and misallocation, demonstrating the commitment of financial institutions to safeguard their clients’ assets. The next time you engage in a banking transaction, remember the invaluable role of CoP in ensuring the security of your financial interests.
For more details, you can visit https://technoxander.com.
An accounting information system (AIS) refers to tools and systems designed for the collection and display of accounting information so accountants and executives can make informed decisions.
Discovering Delhi - India's Cultural Capital.pptxcosmo-soil
Delhi, the heartbeat of India, offers a rich blend of history, culture, and modernity. From iconic landmarks like the Red Fort to bustling commercial hubs and vibrant culinary scenes, Delhi's real estate landscape is dynamic and diverse. Discover the essence of India's capital, where tradition meets innovation.
Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
May’s reports showed signs of continued economic growth, said Sam Millette, director, fixed income, in his latest Economic Risk Factor Update.
For more market updates, subscribe to The Independent Market Observer at https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
Every business, big or small, deals with outgoing payments. Whether it’s to suppliers for inventory, to employees for salaries, or to vendors for services rendered, keeping track of these expenses is crucial. This is where payment vouchers come in – the unsung heroes of the accounting world.
A toxic combination of 15 years of low growth, and four decades of high inequality, has left Britain poorer and falling behind its peers. Productivity growth is weak and public investment is low, while wages today are no higher than they were before the financial crisis. Britain needs a new economic strategy to lift itself out of stagnation.
Scotland is in many ways a microcosm of this challenge. It has become a hub for creative industries, is home to several world-class universities and a thriving community of businesses – strengths that need to be harness and leveraged. But it also has high levels of deprivation, with homelessness reaching a record high and nearly half a million people living in very deep poverty last year. Scotland won’t be truly thriving unless it finds ways to ensure that all its inhabitants benefit from growth and investment. This is the central challenge facing policy makers both in Holyrood and Westminster.
What should a new national economic strategy for Scotland include? What would the pursuit of stronger economic growth mean for local, national and UK-wide policy makers? How will economic change affect the jobs we do, the places we live and the businesses we work for? And what are the prospects for cities like Glasgow, and nations like Scotland, in rising to these challenges?
What Lessons Can New Investors Learn from Newman Leech’s Success?Newman Leech
Newman Leech's success in the real estate industry is based on key lessons and principles, offering practical advice for new investors and serving as a blueprint for building a successful career.
South Dakota State University degree offer diploma Transcriptynfqplhm
办理美国SDSU毕业证书制作南达科他州立大学假文凭定制Q微168899991做SDSU留信网教留服认证海牙认证改SDSU成绩单GPA做SDSU假学位证假文凭高仿毕业证GRE代考如何申请南达科他州立大学South Dakota State University degree offer diploma Transcript
2. I. Introduction
The question that inspired the book: I.O.U.S.A. documentary film
and the live panel response.
The goal of this book: to help save and invest wisely now
The book has 3 Major Sections:
Return of the Stagflation Trap
A World of Funny Money: The Inflation Time Bomb
The Inflation Survival Guide
It may not occur in the short-term, but inflation will come
Caused by currency debasement rather than economic growth
The goal: maximize inflation-adjusted investment returns
2
8. Causes of Stagnant Growth (cont.)
Demographics – aging population
Rising Taxes
Excess Capacity/Productivity Enhancements
House Mortgage Resets:
8
9. Stagflation Implications
Negative real wage growth
Increased financial stress: especially the middle class & the elderly
Increase in crime rates
Financial stress on state and local governments
Social Unrest
9
10. Who Said It?
“By a continuous process of inflation, governments can confiscate,
secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their
citizens. By this method, they not only confiscate, but they
confiscate arbitrarily; and while the process impoverishes many, it
actually enriches some… The process engages all the hidden forces
of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a
manner that not one man in a million can diagnose.”
(John Maynard Keynes, 1920)
10
11. III. A World of Funny Money: The
Inflation Time Bomb
Up to this point, I agree with the deflationists. However, I part ways
with them at this point because of the nature of our money.
What makes money “money”, anyway?
Recognized medium of exchange
Unit of account
A trustworthy store of value
Inflation: The Hidden Tax
Webster’s definition: a rise in the general price level; my
definition: loss of purchasing power of the currency
Types:
Cost-push & Demand-pull
Currency debasement (bad)
11
12. The $100 Trillion Entitlement Black Hole
The current trend of government spending is clearly unsustainable.
Just take a look at this chart:
12
13. Your Share of the Debt
This chart shows each household’s share of federal debt plus
unfunded entitlements:
13
14. Who is Going to Fund This Mess?
Projected funding deficit this year: $400 - $700 billion! (projected
supply vs. demand for Treasury bonds). The only solution I can see:
monetization (Fed buying the Treasury debt).
14
15. What is the True Inflation Rate?
To me, this is not an easy answer, for the USA or for other
countries. Most governments are incentivized to report low
inflation rates (COLA adjustments). For the U.S., the calculation
methodology has changed so much over the years that I question
comparing current results to historical numbers.
For reference purposes, I use the information on
www.shadowstats.com to see what the current reported CPI rate
would be using the old calculation methodologies. My own personal
conclusion from researching this matter is that CPI is understated by
approximately 3-5%. I am well aware that Wall Street and most
investors only look at the government (BLS) reported CPI numbers.
15
16. What is the True Inflation Rate? (cont.)
The graph below shows the difference between the current
calculation methodology for CPI and the result that you would get
using the 1980 calculation methodology (from ShadowStats.com):
16
17. The Importance of Real Interest Rates
Simple calculation:
Nominal interest rate – Inflation rate = Real interest rate
If the result is positive, money should retain its function as a store
of value, and vice versa. My personal opinion is that most asset
price bubbles can be tied to periods of negative real interest rates.
Here is a chart showing the real interest rate chart for the USA over
time (using reported CPI):
17
19. The Copper Example: Copper Price Drivers
Price Drivers – dollars/pound November 2009
Weak U.S. dollar $0.30
Energy prices 0.15
China trade balance 0.15
Supply/demand/inventory 1.80
Total Fundamentals $2.40
Commodity Trading Accounts (CTAs) $0.30
Hedge Funds 0.38
Index Funds 0.26
Total Fund Influence $0.94 (28% of the price!)
LME cash price $3.34
Source: CRU – Commodity Metals
Management Company
19
21. Who Said It?
“But then the masses wake up. They become suddenly aware of the
fact that inflation is a deliberate policy that will go on endlessly. A
breakdown occurs. The crack-up boom appears. Everybody is
anxious to swap his money against “real” goods, no matter whether
he needs them or not, no matter how much money he has to pay
for them.”
(Ludwig von Mises, 1953)
21
22. Currency Debasement Inflation
Inflation is the loss of purchasing power of money. Here is a chart
showing the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar going back to the
year the Federal Reserve Bank was established (1913):
22
23. Currency Debasement Inflation (page 2)
Factors to consider when looking at monetary statistics: money
supply and money velocity. See the charts below:
23
24. Currency Debasement Inflation (page 3)
Can a determined Central Bank turn deflation into inflation?
According to Ben Bernanke, the answer to this question is a
resounding “yes”! Here is his famous quote from November 2002:
“Like gold, U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in
supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its
electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at
essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or by even
credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a
dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars
of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a
determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive
inflation.
The conclusion that deflation is always reversible under a fiat money system follows
from basic economic reasoning.” Ben Bernanke speech: “Deflation: Making Sure ‘It’
Doesn’t Happen Here,” November 2002
24
25. Currency Debasement Inflation (page 4)
Conclusions I draw from the Bernanke speech:
Japan didn’t try hard enough to get out of its deflation;
You can bypass the banks if you need to;
Velocity and inflation will go up when people see that you intend
to continually debase the currency.
What can cause velocity to increase?
Healthy economy with sound bank loan growth;
Forced or unsound loan growth;
Capital flight (people fleeing the currency).
Common arguments from the deflationists:
Japan – 20+ years economic stagnation
U.S. Fed – Paul Volcker
25
26. Currency Debasement Inflation (page 5)
Beware of the Deflation head-fake (we may be here now!)
Weimar Republic – Germany
Beneficiaries of inflation:
Federal government (on two fronts – liabilities and taxes)
State and local governments
Underfunded pension plans
Debt-laden consumers and businesses
Inflation victims:
Savers and lenders
26
27. Who Said It?
“To preserve [the] independence [of the people], we must not let
our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our election
between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we run
into such debts that we must be taxed in our meat and in our drink,
in our necessaries and our comforts, in our labors and our
amusements, for our callings and our creeds, as the people of
England are, our people, like them, must come to labor sixteen
hours in the twenty-four, give the earnings of fifteen of these to the
government for their debts and daily expenses, and the sixteenth
being insufficient to afford us bread, we must live, as they do now,
on oatmeal and potatoes, have no time to think, no means of calling
the mismanagers to account, but be glad to obtain subsistence by
hiring ourselves to rivet their chains on the necks of our fellow-
sufferers.” (Thomas Jefferson, 1816)
27
28. IV. Inflation Survival Guide
How will inflation impact you? The diagram shown below gives a
general rule of thumb of how assets respond under various rates of
inflation:
28
29. Build A Solid Foundation
Many investors skip building a solid foundation. I believe this is a
serious mistake. Below is a diagram that shows my opinion of how a
solid investment process should work. At the base is savings and
financial insurance assets such as gold and silver.
From there, an investor should
focus on cash flow investments,
then capital gain (growth)
investments, and
speculative investments
should come last.
29
30. Investing In Gold & Silver
Going forward, I expect gold and silver to continue to do quite well.
I believe silver will outperform gold. Continuing with the solid
foundation theme, here is how I recommend investors approach
investing in this sector. You could also use this approach for
investing any commodity-related industry (such as energy).
30
31. Diversification Benefit of Gold & Commodities
Chart: 5-year weekly return correlation on key assets and gold (US$)
BarCap 1-3 month T-bills 0.03
BarCap US Tsy Agg 0.05
BarCap US Credit -0.03
BarCap US High Yield -0.04
S&P 500 -0.02
DJ Industrial Average -0.06
Russell 3000 -0.01
MSCI World ex US 0.18
Dow Jones Wilshire REITs 0.01
Brent crude oil (US$/bbl) 0.35
DJ UBS Comdty Index 0.49
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
Source: Global Insight, Barclays Capital, WGC Data ending 26 March 2010
Whilst every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of all information used in this document, the WGC cannot guarantee such accuracy;
nor does the WGC accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly, or indirectly, from the use of this document. This report is
intended for information purposes only, and is not and should not be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell gold or any gold-related product.
31
32. Building Wealth In The New Age of Volatility
It may be advantageous to have investment strategies that take
advantage of volatility (because I believe it is sure to rise).
32
33. Focus on Inflation-Adjusted Returns
Our goal is for investment returns to outpace inflation and taxes.
The following chart shows the Dow and the inflation-adjusted Dow
going back to 1900. The average return is 6.5% excluding inflation
and is about 3.4% inflation-adjusted (government-reported CPI –
before taxes).
33
34. Thematic Investing
If you believe, as I do, that inflation will be a problem going
forward, then some investments should do better than others.
Inflation-fighting investments that should do well in this
environment include the categories shown below. The book has a
list of ETFs for most of these various categories.
Precious metals – gold, silver, and platinum
Energy and clean energy
Food and water
Infrastructure
Emerging markets
Basic materials
Defense and personal security
Certain types of real estate (such as farmland)
34
35. One Example: Investing In Water
Clean drinking water is in short supply in many parts of the world. In
addition, water infrastructure, like highway infrastructure, is in a
state of disrepair in many areas. I believe there will be an increasing
trend to privatize water resources because most local governments
do not have the financial resources needed to upgrade their
facilities. American Water Works (AWK) is the largest water utility in
the U.S. The chart below compares cost of water in the U.S. with
other countries. There is also
a global water ETF – ticker PIO.
35
36. Is My House A Good Inflation Hedge?
Sometimes “yes”; sometimes “no”.
36
37. Short-Term: Deflation Will Be A Powerful Force
Just take a look at this graph of M-3 money supply growth (re-
constructed per ShadowStats):
37
38. A World In Transition: Wealth, Power & Influence Are Being
Transferred From The West (G7) To The East
Greece is currently the hot topic. Prediction: the next 10 years will
contain one currency and bond market crisis after another. Here is
Bill Gross’s “Ring of Fire”:
38
39. Government Debt is Exploding!
Country 2010 Projected Fiscal Projected Increase in
Balance as a % of GDP Public Debt/ GDP – 30
Years (Baseline
Projection)
France -8.6 400%
Germany -5.3 300%
Italy -5.4 200%
Japan -8.2 300%
U.K. -13.3 500%
USA -10.7 400%
Greece -9.8 400%
Asia -3.5
Central Europe -4.4
Latin America -2.4
Source: BIS Working Papers, March
2010
39
41. The “Inflation Trade”
Implications of Wealth & Power Transfer & Rising Inflation:
Stocks: Emerging Markets > Developed Markets
Currencies: Positive Real Rates > Negative Real Rates
Real Assets > Financial Assets
Bonds: Emerging Markets > Developed Markets and Developed
Market Corporate (Investment Grade) > Developed Market
Sovereign Debt
Commodities: Structurally short supply (copper, platinum, silver)
> Excess capacity (aluminum)
41
43. Concluding Thoughts: The Flood Is Coming
Can disaster be avoided? Perhaps, if we:
Dramatically cut government spending. This requires a
recognition that we can no longer afford the “welfare state”
form of government.
Reach agreement with the people regarding unfunded liabilities
(entitlements) – these must be significantly reduced.
People must insist on honest government. Have term limits.
Politicians must “re-earn” voter’s trust.
Maintain positive real interest rates and show commitment to
this policy. If this is not done, investors will continue to seek
alternative “stores of value.”
43
44. Concluding Thoughts (cont.)
Since the beginning of the financial crisis in 2007, the primary
accomplishment of the U.S. government and the Fed has been to
shift debt and risky assets from the private sector to the public
sector (taxpayers). Problems have not been solved, only delayed.
The next crisis can occur at any time. History shows that once a
currency loses its function as a store of value, it will also cease to
function as a medium of exchange. With this in mind, I offer the
following advice:
Don’t let the rat race kill you;
Don’t let the funny money destroy you;
Live frugally;
Save and invest wisely now;
Don’t let disaster preparedness consume you;
Help others along the way.
44
45. Two More Quotes
“$100 placed at 7% interest compounded quarterly for 200 years
will increase to more than $100,000,000 – by which time it will be
worth nothing.” Robert A. Heinlein – Time Enough for Love –
copyright 1974
“You can’t solve a debt crisis with more debt. Ask Greece in about 6-
12 months, as the “fixes” are temporary. Things go along until there
is a loss of confidence in the bond market, and then all hell breaks
loose. When is that? Who knows? But it is not ten years away, and
probably not five. Rates skyrocket and the currency takes a hit…I
think we avoid it, as there will be a growing backlash at the polls
against government deficits. But then, I am an optimist. If you think
politicians cannot muster the will to make the cuts, then bet on the
disaster scenario. Think gold and hard assets and foreign assets and
absolute-return funds.” John Mauldin, “Is This a Recovery?,” April
2, 2010
45