1. Climate Change Impacts on
Runoff in North-West India
Hong Li & Stein Beldring
Norwegian Metorological Institute (www.met.no)
Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (www.nve.no)
24 May 2016
2. Outline
Introduction: WP1 climate modelling
Methods: WRF, HBV, ∆h-parametrisation
Study Area: North-West India, Chenab River
WRF results: T & P simulation in 16km
HBV Calibration: 1971 - 1979 monthly
Future Climate: Bias corrected temperature and precipitation
Flood: annual max discharge 1971 - 1976 & 2006 - 2060
Spatial Changes in Runoff & Storages
Glaciers & Runoff
Summary & Conclusions
3. Introduction Methods Study Area WRF16km HBV calibration Future climate Flood Spatial Change Glaciers and runoff Conclusions
WP1: Climate modelling
WP Lead: Dr. Jan Erik Haugen (met.no), contribution from NVE
ˆ WP0: Project management & dissemination
ˆ WP1: Climate modelling
atmosphere, hydrology, glaciers
ˆ WP2: Empirical statistical downscaling and statistical analyses
ˆ WP3: Sosio-economic impact assessment
https://www.nve.no/hydrology/indice-project/workpackages/workpackage-1/
5. Introduction Methods Study Area WRF16km HBV calibration Future climate Flood Spatial Change Glaciers and runoff Conclusions
North-West India
6. Introduction Methods Study Area WRF16km HBV calibration Future climate Flood Spatial Change Glaciers and runoff Conclusions
Chenab River
74 - 78E, 30 - 40N
Himachal Pradesh
8,300 MW hydropower potential
960 km, 18,274 km2
(Akhnoor)
High mountain, snow and glaciers
North-West India
7. Introduction Methods Study Area WRF16km HBV calibration Future climate Flood Spatial Change Glaciers and runoff Conclusions
Mean temperature and annual precipitation by WRF in 16 km (1982-1985)
Temperature (◦
C) Precipitation (mm/year)
8. Introduction Methods Study Area WRF16km HBV calibration Future climate Flood Spatial Change Glaciers and runoff Conclusions
Mean temperature and annual precipitation by WRF in 16 km (1982-1985)
Temperature (◦
C) Precipitation (mm/year)
9. Introduction Methods Study Area WRF16km HBV calibration Future climate Flood Spatial Change Glaciers and runoff Conclusions
Mean temperature and annual precipitation by WRF in 16 km (1982-1985)
Section (a) Section (b)
Section (c) Section (d)
10. Introduction Methods Study Area WRF16km HBV calibration Future climate Flood Spatial Change Glaciers and runoff Conclusions
Methods
atmosphere, hydrology, glaciers
ˆ Climate model: WRF
ˆ Hydrological model: HBV
ˆ Glacier model: ∆h-parametrisation
The HBV is forced by the
WRF running in 50 km.
ESD & Quantile Mapping
11. Introduction Methods Study Area WRF16km HBV calibration Future climate Flood Spatial Change Glaciers and runoff Conclusions
HBV calibration
12. Introduction Methods Study Area WRF16km HBV calibration Future climate Flood Spatial Change Glaciers and runoff Conclusions
Future climate: T & P
ESD Quantile Mapping
13. Introduction Methods Study Area WRF16km HBV calibration Future climate Flood Spatial Change Glaciers and runoff Conclusions
Future climate: E & R
ESD Quantile Mapping
14. Introduction Methods Study Area WRF16km HBV calibration Future climate Flood Spatial Change Glaciers and runoff Conclusions
Annual change
15. Introduction Methods Study Area WRF16km HBV calibration Future climate Flood Spatial Change Glaciers and runoff Conclusions
Flood: annual max discharges
16. Introduction Methods Study Area WRF16km HBV calibration Future climate Flood Spatial Change Glaciers and runoff Conclusions
Spatial changes in runoff & Storages
Obs ESD Quantile mapping
Runoff
Storages
17. Introduction Methods Study Area WRF16km HBV calibration Future climate Flood Spatial Change Glaciers and runoff Conclusions
Glaciers & Runoff
ESD Quantile Mapping
18. Introduction Methods Study Area WRF16km HBV calibration Future climate Flood Spatial Change Glaciers and runoff Conclusions
Summary & Conclusion
ˆ All results show less runoff and faster glacier melting.
ˆ There are large differences between the ESD and Quantile Mapping.
ˆ Modelling is very useful, but still limited.
ˆ NEED more validation data (climate, hydrology and glacier)
