This document summarizes the performance and challenges of Indian agriculture. It notes that while agriculture contributes only 14% to India's GDP, 50% of the population depends on it. Key points include: food grain production has increased 29% from 2003-2015, but yields are stagnating for many crops; allied sectors like dairy have seen strong growth but small landholdings, irrigation gaps, and low seed replacement ratio remain challenges. The document also reviews major government interventions and expectations for the next 3-5 years, which include full implementation of e-markets, expanded crop insurance, and increased irrigation and water conservation.

1. SIRAJ HUSSAIN
VISITING SENIOR FELLOW
ICRIER
INDIAN AGRICULTURE
PERFORMANCE & CHALLENGES

2. INTRODUCTION
 50% of Population dependent on Agriculture
 Share of Agriculture in GDP only 14%
 Agriculture, Horticulture, Livestock, Fisheries,
Forestry meet human need for food & nutrition
 Agricultural growth reduces rural poverty more
effectively than industrial growth

3. PRODUCTION TRENDS FROM
TE 2003-04 TO TE 2014-15
 Food Grain :
Increased from 200.27 MMT to 252.68 MMT
(29%)
 Coarse Grains :
Increased from 32.35 MMT to 41.75 MMT
(29%)
 Oil Seeds :
Increased from 20.23 MMT to 26.68 MMT
 Cotton :
Increased from 10.78 Million bales to 35.48
Million Bales.

4. GROWTH IN ALLIED SECTORS
2009-10 TO 2013-14
 Fruits : 21%
 Vegetables : 25%
 Spices : 48%

5. GROWTH IN DAIRY SECTOR
 Milk production increased from 86.2 MMT in TE
2003-04 to 133 MMT in TE 2013-14
 Egg production increased from 40 Billion in TE
2003-04 to 70 billion in TE 2013-14

6. BUT YIELDS ARE STAGNATING
 In Cotton, fast growth was primarily due to Bt
technology
 Annual Growth rates between 2001-02 & 2014-
15:
Pulses & Oilseeds - 2%
Wheat - 1%
Rice - 1%
Sugarcane - 0.3%
Cotton - 14%

7. CHANGES IN CONSUMPTION
PATTERN
 Due to economic growth – diets shifting to more
proteins, milk, fruits, vegetables & pulses
 Reliance on import of pulses increasing as
productivity is low and pulses are mostly grown in
rainfed areas on marginal lands
 For edible oils also there is substantial
dependence on imports.

8. MAJOR INTERVENTIONS IN LAST
TEN YEARS
 Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana (RKVY)
 National Horticulture Mission (NHM)
 Bharat Nirman Project for Rural Infrastructure
 Capital Infusion in Agriculture Research &
Extension
 E-National Agriculture Market
 Soil Health Cards
 Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayi Yojna

9. GDP & Agriculture (and allied
sector)
 India - 14%
 Rajasthan - 30% & Above
 Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, West Bengal etc - 20-29%
 Gujarat, Karnataka - 15-19%
 Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Maharashtra - Less
than 15%

10. CHALLENGES BEFORE INDIA :
LAND & SOIL
 Cultivable area – 140 Million ha
 About 120 Million ha – under varying degree of
degradation
 Acidity, Alkalinity, Salinity, Water Logging are
major problems
 Demand for non agricultural use is increasing

11. VERY SMALL HOLDINGS
as percentage of area
 Marginal (Below 1 ha) - 22.49%
 Small (1-2 ha) - 22.05%
 Semi Medium (2-4 ha) - 23.62%
 Medium (4-10 ha) - 21.17%
 Large (Approx 10 ha) - 10.58%
Average holding - 1.16 ha
Average holding USA - 176 ha

12. FRAGMENTATION OF LAND
 Number of Marginal & Small Holdings increasing
 Number of Medium & Large Holdings decreasing
 Small holdings provide insufficient income
 Tenancy reforms & legalisation of leasing need of the
hour
 Expert group under Dr. T. Haque will suggest legal
framework of leasing and will prepare a model Law

13. IRRIGATION
 India has only 4% of world’s fresh water
resources
 Only 45% of cropped area is irrigated (63 million
ha). Gap between Irrigation potential (113 Million
ha) and potential utilised (91 Million ha)
 Yields in rainfed area are very low
 The Government has launched Pradhan Mantri
Sinchai Yojana for more efficient use of Water
and bringing water to every field
 Top priority to completion of ongoing Irrigation
projects

14. SEEDS
 Green revolution of 1960s – 1970s primarily due to seeds
 Success of Maize in 2000s
 Increase in production of fruits & vegetables in 2000s also
due to hybrid seeds
 Increase in seed replacement ratio:
 Self pollinated - 25% to 33%
 Cross pollinated - 33% to 50%
 Hybrid - 100%
 However recent years have seen fall in demand of
foundation seeds

15. FERTILISERS
 Nutrient based subsidy introduced from 1st April,
2010
 22 grades and P&K Fertilisers – DAP, MAP, MOP,
SSP, P&K, Ammonium Sulfate, covered.
 Import of subsidized P&K fertilisers is under open
general license
 Import of urea is still canalised through Public
Sector Enterprises

16. SUBSIDY ON FERTILISERS
 In 2016-17 Budget Estimate for fertiliser subsidy is
Rs. 73000 crores
 There are unpaid bills of Rs. 40000 crores
 Urea Price (Rs. per tonne)
 India - 85$ per tonne
 Bangladesh - 323$ per tonne
 China - 265$ per tonne
 Pakistan - 360$ per tonne
 Reports suggest smuggling of subsidised urea to
Bangladesh
 Highly skewed N. P. K. ratio
 Debate in India is whether fertilsers should be sold at
Market price

17. AGRICULTURE CREDIT
 Institutional credit rose from Rs. 1,25,309 crore in
2004-05 to Rs. 7,11,621 crore in 2013-14.
 Short term credit (Crop loan) is available at 4%
interest (if paid on time)
 Medium & Long term Credit decreasing
 But only 25% of operational holdings have access
to crop loans

18. CROP INSURANCE
 Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana launched in
January, 2016
 Area under insurance to be increased from 20%
to 50% in 3 years
 Farmers premium rates very low
Kharif - 2%
Rabi - 1.5%
 Difference between actuarial rate & farmers rate
to be subsidised equally by Government of India
& State Governments.

19. AGRICULTURE MARKETING
 Minimum support price announced for 25 crops
but only wheat & paddy are procured by Govt
agencies
 MSP for 2016-17 is:
 Wheat - Rs. 15250 per tonne
 Paddy - Rs. 14700 per tonne
 Maize - Rs. 13650 per tonne
 Agriculture Produce Market Committees dictate
the system of sale by farmers

20. WHAT CAN WE EXPECT IN NEXT
3-5 YEARS ?
 E-National Agriculture Market will become
operational
 About 50% of gross cropped area will be covered
under crop Insurance
 Production of Pulses may increase to about 20
million tonnes (from 17 million tonnes now)
 48 major irrigation projects will be completed
 Water conservation (Drip and Sprinkler) / water
harvesting will become mainstream
 Genetically modified crops will be permitted.

21. AGRICULTURE IN BANGLADESH
 Did well in Agriculture in last few years-Agriculture
growth rate – 4.6 % between 2010-2014
 87% households have income from Agriculture
 Did well to expand irrigation, introduced high
yielding variety of seeds, more efficient markets,
mechanisation
 Agriculture growth stimulates non farm income

22. PRIORITY ACTIONS
ACCORDING TO WORLD BANK
 Diversify from rice to other crops but improve
productivity of rice
 Promote non farm growth and efficient value
chain
 Improve connectivity between rural areas and
secondary cities
 Continue to attain food security
 Promote food processing

23. Hope you enjoyed the session
sirajnoida@gmail.com
Thanks