Im webinar3 presentation latino vote_final

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The following presentation deck and webinar recording
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conclusion of this webinar.

The Power of The Latino Vote
2012 and Beyond.

Cynthia Corzo
Editor, Hispanic Market Weekly
Cynthia Corzo is editor of Hispanic Market Weekly. In this role,
she oversees all of the editorial content in both the weekly
newsletter and on www.hispanicmarketweekly.com. She joined
Hispanic Market Weekly in 2002 after 14 years at El Nuevo
Herald and The Miami Herald.

Corzo has successfully established solid relationships with
agencies, advertisers and media outlets active in the Hispanic
market, delivering for Hispanic Market Weekly a steady stream of
scoops, breaking news and solicited content.

Webinar Agenda
• The Power of The Latino Vote, Cesar M. Melgoza, Geoscape
• The Bilingual Electorate & Latino Outreach, Dr. Gary Segura,
Latino Decisions
• Inside Latino Voters and the Media, Pilar Marrero, La Opinión
• Q&A

2012 and Beyond.

2012 and Beyond
The Power of the Latino Vote
Actionable insights for public service and business expansion

César M Melgoza
Founder & CEO
Geoscape
cmelgoza@geoscape.com
www.geoscape.com
1-888-211-9353

Access the New Mainstream

Overview
• American Diversity :: The New Mainstream
– The ―Growth-Majority‖.
– Who‘s driving economic growth?
• Latino Voting Behavior and Party Affiliation.
– The ―Latino Voter Lag‖.
– Swinging allegiances.

© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. 7

Latinos represented 56 percent of
America’s population growth
between 2000 and 2010 and grew
at 9x the rate of non-Latinos.

American Cultural Diversity
The Latino Growth Majority

Population Change by Ethnicity/Race
By 2016, the population in the three largest ethnic groups will be nearly 115 million and Hispanics will represent over
half of that population.
Non-Hispanic White Hispanic Black Asian NH White Hispanic NH Black NH Asian Multicultural
220 100%
Non-Hispanic White population
200 90% drops below 50% of the U.S.
population in 2040
U.S. Population (in millions)

180 80%
160 70%
140

Percentage
60%
120 Hispanics became the
largest ―minority‖ group 50%
100
in 2000 and have 40%
80 continued to surge.
30%
60
40 20%

20 10%

0 0%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2011 2016 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Years Years
Population 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2011 2016 2050
NH Asian & PI 980,337 980,337 3,500,439 6,994,034 10,410,556 14,717,118 16,518,783 34,952,900

NH Black* 18,871,831 22,580,289 26,495,025 29,284,605 33,707,230 38,021,109 39,945,184 52,122,797

Hispanic 2,181,409 9,589,216 14,608,673 21,898,546 35,238,481 51,233,818 58,398,328 133,543,59
4

NH Other 157,198,59 170,062,084 181,941,668 190,507,602 202,065,639 207,880,430 212,277,086 216,901,24
8 8
Notes: Population of Puerto Rico 179,232,17 in Hispanic population figures. * 2000-2011-2016 numbers for Asian and Black are for312,180,883 2011326,127,959
Total is not included 203,211,926 226,545,805 248,684,787 281,421,906 Non-Hispanic; and 2016 Estimates437,520,53
as of July 1
5 9
Source: Geoscape; American Marketscape DataStream: 2011 Series and the U.S. Census Bureau.

Hispanic Concentration: 1990

Concentration previously in
Southwestern states – darkest shade
is 50% or greater


Hispanic Concentration: 2016

Concentration spreading towards
North and East with significant
populations throughout U.S.


Hispanics by Age Range Distribution
The Hispanic population is younger than the Non-Hispanic population, with a significantly greater proportion
of all population cohorts in the under 40 age groups—indicating an oncoming spending wave. Conversely, the
retirement age population is predominantly non-Hispanic.

About 70% of Hispanics are
under 40 compared to 51% of
Non-Hispanics whereas more % Hispanic
12.00%
than 92% of the retirement-age
% Non-Hispanic
population is Non-Hispanic.
10.00%
Percent Hispanic Population

8.00%

6.00%

4.00%

2.00%

0.00%
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-17 18-20 21-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64
Source: Geoscape, American Marketscape DataStream: 2011 65-69 70-74
Age Ranges 75+
Series.


The New Digital Divide

Today nearly 2/3 of Hispanics are online,
with a heavier skew among the English-
speaking, more acculturated population.

Hispanics have very high penetration of
smartphones for texting, internet browsing,
Hispanics are among the most avid social media etc. on a par with Asians and ahead of White
users and are 3x more likely to create online content. 13 and African Americans
© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353.

The changing business and
political landscape
Powerful Trends for Savvy Politicians

Who‘s driving economic growth?
Hispanics represent about 12 percent of American households but contribute nearly half of the
growth in consumer spending— and with the addition of Asians are responsible for two-thirds of
spending growth. The data below are for 2010 and are expected to increase further for 2011.

Annual Consumer Spending Growth „09 –‟10

Source: Geoscape Consumer Spending Dynamix.™

Which consumer is worth more?

Acquiring a household today and
retaining it throughout their
lifespan will result in very
different cumulative revenue due to
age, spending and life expectancy.

Asian households will spend the
most, followed by Hispanics. Each
sector varies, often the average
spending per household
higher even if income is lower.
Differences in lifespan result in
compelling outcomes in favor of
Hispanic and Asian consumers.
Lifetime Household Spending 2010+ NH White NH Black NH Asian NH Hispanic
Hispanic

The continued rapid growth in the Food at Home $161,741 $133,565 $227,231 $261,551
Hispanic population will result in Food at Home and Away $278,321 $217,525 $404,180 $411,335
Personal Care $26,863 $26,247 $34,750 $32,748
an aggregate spending worth
Apparel $67,976 $95,098 $109,260 $124,027
that is becoming difficult to Home Furnishings $63,997 $53,347 $87,843 $58,120
ignore—making it more important Transportation $360,334 $302,614 $494,944 $456,903
and strategic for corporations to Entertainment $126,388 $74,689 $199,227 $104,842
shift their investment priorities. Subtotal $1,085,619 $903,085 $1,557,435 $1,449,525
Other $1,086,340 $865,697 $1,537,514 $1,073,610
Total $2,171,959 $1,768,782 $3,094,949 $2,523,135
Source: Geoscape Consumer Spending Dynamix.™

The Future of America's Tax Base

• America‟s “Golden Era” of economic
vitality post WW2 in about 1950 and may
be steadily eroding…
100%
• Unless significant investment in the Anglo middle-class in the workforce
younger workforce members is initiated.
• School age population and younger
workforce members are disproportionately
Hispanic and will increasingly represent
the tax-paying public. Latinos in the workforce
• Boomers will represent the majority of the
retirees, drawing Social Security and
Medicare benefits and depending on a
vital public works and national security 0%
infrastructure. 1950 2050
• The best way to ensure vital tax base is to
invest in the ability for Hispanics to
acquire high-earning jobs.

© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. Source: Geoscape analysis of department of commerce data 17

Congressional District Map
Latinos form an increasing proportion of
key states and congressional districts
throughout the nation. However, to reach
reaching par to the overall would require
14 additional U.S. Senators and 47
additional members of the U.S. Congress.


Congressional District Map

Oddly shaped boundaries are
common among congressional
districts – the decennial
redistricting process is usually
very controversial.


Eligible Voters by Ethnicity/Race
Due to the Latino population’s youth
and the number of non-citizens, the
voting eligible population is only about
43 percent – but expected to increase.

Eligible Voters as a Share of Total Population for Major
Racial and Ethnic Groups, 2010 (Percent)
100

90
20.9 23.3
28.9
80 34.9
1.4
70
4.0
24
60
22.4 Under 18
50
Non Citizen

40 Voting Eligible
77.7
67.1
30
52.7
42.7
20

10

0
Hispanic White Black Asian
© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. Source: Pew Research Center tabulations from the Current Population Survey, November Supplements . 20

Eligible Voters by Ethnicity/Race
Latinos formed
more than 12
Demographic Composition of Voters by Race & Ethnicity, 1988-2008 (% of voters) percent of eligible
voters in 2008 and
White Black Hispanic Asian
as U.S. born Latinos
100 0 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.3 2.5 reach adult age, this
3.6 3.8 will accelerate
4.7 5.4
90
6 7.4 rapidly.
9.8 9.9
10.6 11.5
11.0
80 12.1

70

60

50

84.9 84.6 82.5
40 80.7 79.2 76.3

30

20

10

0
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008


Eligible Voters vs. Voters

Change in Voter Turnout Rates Among Eligible Voters, 2008 and 2004 (Percent)
Voter participation increased
2008 2004 % Change
140 significantly in the last general
-1.1 4.9
election – African Americans nearly
-0.2 5 percent and Latinos nearly 3
percent more that in 2004.
120

2.7
100 67.2 2.4
63.8 60.3

80
47.2
44.6
60

40
63.6 66.1 65.2
49.9 47.0
20

0
All White Black Hispanic Asian


Party Affiliation Although most Latinos identify with
the Democratic party, alliance with
Republicans increased during the GW
Bush years – in part due to his ―in-
culture outreach‖ to Hispanics.

Percent Who Identify With or Lean to a Party
90 Democratic Republican

80

70 25
25 28 23
28
60

50

40

30 58 56 57
55
49
20

10

0
1999 2002 2004* 2006 2007
Source: Pew Hispanic Center, 2002-2007 National Surveys of Latinos (*June 2004); and Washington Post/Kaiser
© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. Family Foundation/Harvard University, 1999 National Survey on Latinos in America. 23

Political Party Affiliation Tendencies

• Democrat • Republican
– Have tended to push civil rights – More recently have embraced
issues and look after Hispanics.
disadvantaged groups. – Often for political convenience.
– Older acculturated Latinos will – Pro-business, anti-tax sentiment.
remember and tend to stay loyal. – Tend to connect on moral/religious
– Attract supporters of with social issues.
issues such as abortion, gay – Newer migrants will not realize
marriage. contributions of democrats to Latino
– Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, Central progress.
Americans tend to affiliate. – Anti-Castro Cuban exiles tend to
– Younger groups of all origins who align.
grew up more progressive in – Evangelical Christians may convert
diverse communities. from democratic party.

Party Dynamics
Tax the
Wealthy
Vulnerable
Democrat
Republicans
Base
to Switch
Republican

Republican Vulnerable
Base Democrats
to Switch

Strong Military
Ardent Christians Democrat Civil Rights

Party Affiliation by Hispanicity

Party affiliation varies by acculturation
level. Unacculturated Latinos are more
likely Independent whereas Republicans
Latinos tend to be acculturated.


Courting Latinos in 2012
Strategic
• Latinos ever-increasing voter clout.
• Latino allegiances result more and more into a swing-vote.
• All parties need to consider addressing Latino issues.
• Party affiliation varies by state, country-of-origin and
socioeconomic status.
• Republican have historically been less attentive to key Latino
issues.
• Latino sentiment about the current administration has
diminished.
• Latino ―family values‖ lean republican but economic issues
lean democrat.
• Latino public is in a strategic position to court both parties.
Tactical

The Bilingual Electorate
• Since 2007, Latino Decisions has completed more than
10,000 interviews with Latino voters

• One trend is consistent over and over again: you must
engage Latinos in both English and Spanish to be
effective

• A third of registered voters are predominantly reliant on
Spanish Media

• Half of all citizens—and a majority of citizens not
registered—rely on Spanish media:
– Growing the Latino Electorate depends on bilingual appeals

www.latinodecisions.com

The Bilingual Electorate: TV

When you watch television, do you watch Spanish-
language stations more often, English-language
stations more often, or do you watch both equally?

June 2008 March 2010 Sep 10
Reg Non-Reg Citz All Citizens Reg
Spanish mostly 22% 43% 37% 29%
Both exactly equal 33% 41% 30% 32%
English mostly 45% 13% 32% 39%

Latino Decisions / We Are America Alliance, June 2008
Latino Decisions / NALEO, March 2010, national poll of citizen adults (all
eligible voters instead of just registered)
Latino Decisions / We Are America Alliance, September 2010, national poll


The Bilingual Electorate: Radio

How about when you listen to the radio?

Reg Non-Reg Citz
Spanish mostly 32% 51%
Both exactly equal 24% 27%
English mostly 44% 12%



Bilingual Electorate: News Reliability
There are a lot of different sources of news and
information. When it comes to news and information
about the election, which source do you trust the most
to deliver the best information?
June 2008 March ‘10 Sep ‗10
Reg Non-Reg Citz All Citizens Reg
Spanish news 31% 58% 49% 35%
Both exactly equal 19% 18% 12% 13%
English news 47% 22% 38% 48%

Latino Decisions / NALEO, March 2010, national poll of citizen adults (all eligible
voters instead of just registered)
Latino Decisions / We Are America Alliance, September 2010, national poll


The Bilingual Electorate: Contact!

Political party‘s, candidates, and civic groups sometimes
send people postcards or flyers in the mail before the
election. Are you more likely to pay attention to these if
they are in Spanish, in English, or in Spanish and
English equally?
Nevada ‗08 National ‗10
Spanish 19% 20%
Bilingual/both 48% 40%
English 25% 32%

Latino Decisions / NALEO, September 2008 – Latino registered voters in Nevada
Latino Decisions / We Are America Alliance, September 2010 – national poll


The Bilingual Electorate: Contact!

• Media strategies of both parties must include
English and Spanish outreach, and the message is
not always the same.

• Don‘t believe any polling of registered voters that
has less than 30% answering in Spanish.

• Exit polls, which typically have only 6-8% of
Hispanic interviews in Spanish, are particularly bad.


2012 Presidential Election:

A Question of Turnout, Population
Growth, Immigration, and
Outreach


The Growing Electorate


Latino Effect in 2008 and 2010

• In 2008, Latino voters were instrumental in several
states, sometimes with margins exceeding state
margin:
– Latinos likely decisive in New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada,
North Carolina, Indiana, and Florida:
– Yes, North Carolina and Indiana!
• In 2010, Latinos saved the day for:
– Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn
– Colorado Senator Michael Bennett
– Nevada Senator Harry Reid
• Failure to focus on Latinos costs Alex Sink the FL
gubernatorial election.


Overlooked Power
• Latino political power in California, Texas and New
York is often overlooked because the states are not
competitive. But
– California is not competitive precisely because of the Latino electorate.
Absent Latinos, California elections are a virtual tie, and before Latino
mobilization around and after 1994 (Prop 187), California was a largely
GOP state in statewide elections.

– Latinos are the key to any future competitiveness in Texas. It is for this
reason that George W. Bush and, to a lesser extent, Rick Perry avoided
racially polarizing legislation that has appeared in California, Colorado,
Arizona and elsewhere.

– Latinos in New York are heavily Democratic and play a powerful role in
NYC politics, particularly Democratic primaries.


Looking Forward to 2012
• Latinos will likely comprise approximately 9.5% of the
electorate in 2012.

• Latinos will be critical voices in shaping outcomes in
Southwestern swing states like Colorado, Nevada, and New
Mexico, as well as the ever-pivotal Florida.

• Even small Latino populations could be decisive in
Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa.

• GOP strategists believe they must win 40% of the Latino vote
to prevail, prompting rumors of Marco Rubio or New Mexico
Governor Susana Martinez as the VP selection.


Immigration Matters in 2012
• Don‘t listen if either campaign tells you Immigration is not the Latino voting
issue.
• Our June Poll showed that 53% of all LATINO REGISTERED VOTERS
count among their friends or family an undocumented immigrant.
• Many (25%) know someone facing immigration enforcement.


Immigration Matters in 2012
• This affects the President‘s approval on the matter…
• Recent policy shifts must be understood against this background.


Looking Forward to 2012
• So key issues among Latinos will be Jobs and
Immigration.

• Disappointment with the administration more likely to
result in abstention than switching.

• The President‘s chances with Latino voters will be driven
by three factors:
– The impact of recent efforts to ameliorate his immigration policy;
– The unemployment rate, and perceptions of efforts to improve
things; and most importantly
– What the GOP nominee says about Latinos and immigrants.
Republicans have long been among the most effective Democratic
turnout strategies.


Latino Voters:
Who are
They?

2012 and Beyond.

The Latino Community

Thru the Eyes of Own
Media.

2012 and Beyond.

Key to Latinos Today: The Last 25 Years

1930 1931 1970

2012 and Beyond.

1979 1980 1991

2012 and Beyond.

1995 1997 1999

2012 and Beyond.

2005 2006 2008 2009

2012 and Beyond.

2010 Today

2012 and Beyond.

Growth Population by Birth
and Immigration.
Growth Population by Birth and
Immigration

2012 and Beyond.

Latinos More than
Doubled in
population in the
Last 20 Years.

2012 and Beyond.

What Exactly is Latino?

2012 and Beyond.

Latinos Care About Immigrants and
Immigration Policy.

…It’s About Family.

2012 and Beyond.

Latinos are But Not
Conservative… “That Way.”

2012 and Beyond.

Latino Politicians: What’s Changing…

2012 and Beyond.

Latinos and
The American Dream.

2012 and Beyond.

Thank you for joining

For questions on this webinar
Contact: jacquelynn.carrera@impremedia.com

www.impremedia.com www.latinodecisions.com www.geoscape.com www.hispanicmarketweekly.com http://politicals.entravision.com

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