The document describes iGUESS, an integrated geospatial urban energy information and decision support system developed by Tudor. iGUESS aims to integrate various energy models, databases, and GIS tools to help cities develop sustainable energy scenarios and policies. It contains modules for assessing solar energy potential, geothermal potential, energy savings in buildings, and more. Cities can use iGUESS to compute baselines, build scenarios, and evaluate policy impacts to reduce CO2 emissions. The system links modules to an energy scenario modeling tool to explore development pathways.

1. iGUESS – An integrated Geospatial Urban
Energy information and decision Support
System
Ulrich Leopold
Resource Centre for Environmental Technologies,
Public Research Centre Henri Tudor,
Esch-sur-Alzette, Luxembourg
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012
www.tudor.lu

2. Outline
Background
Objectives
Approach
Energy Modules
Scenarios
Outlook
Live demo
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 2

3. So what was MUSIC again ?
MUSIC
is an INTERREG IVB NWE project with 5 European cities
(Rotterdam, Ghent, Aberdeen, Montreuil, Ludwigsburg)
supported by 2 research institutes (DRIFT & Tudor),
aims at reducing CO2 emissions in urban areas by 50% by
2030,
involves urban citizens via Transition Management,
adds energy as an additional GIS layer to spatial and urban
planning,
develops innovative strategies by combining Transition
Management and GIS technologies in urban planning.
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 3

4. So what was MUSIC again ?
MUSIC
is an INTERREG IVB NWE project with 5 European cities
(Rotterdam, Ghent, Aberdeen, Montreuil, Ludwigsburg)
supported by 2 research institutes (DRIFT & Tudor),
aims at reducing CO2 emissions in urban areas by 50% by
2030,
involves urban citizens via Transition Management,
adds energy as an additional GIS layer to spatial and urban
planning,
develops innovative strategies by combining Transition
Management and GIS technologies in urban planning.
Tudor develops iGUESS – an integrated Geospatial Urban Energy
information and decision Support System.
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 3

5. Why iGUESS ?
Many tools exist:
various models to compute renewable energy potentials,
energy demand and supply, analyse socio-economic issues, . . .
data bases on social information, renewable energies,
environmental parameters, businesses
some data exist as maps, others as tables
Web-interfaces
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 4

6. Why iGUESS ?
Many tools exist:
various models to compute renewable energy potentials,
energy demand and supply, analyse socio-economic issues, . . .
data bases on social information, renewable energies,
environmental parameters, businesses
some data exist as maps, others as tables
Web-interfaces
iGUESS aims to integrate all this by:
using web-based technologies,
following open standards and software,
building on established and recent scientific knowledge,
working directly with the stakeholders.
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 4

7. iGUESS provides tools to find solutions !
iGUESS – a decision support system which provides:
geospatial modelling and assessment tools to determine
optimal energy policies for urban areas across multiple scales;
simplified access to complex spatial and temporal information
for stakeholders and decision makers;
interoperability respecting open standards to integrate
distributed data sources, different models and analysis tools.
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 5

8. Tudor develops with each City a specific Module
Module (tool) and lead City:
Solar Energy Potential – Rotterdam;
Shallow Geothermal Energy Potential – Ludwigsburg;
Urban Heat Island effects – Ghent, Montreuil;
Green Roofs Suitability – Rotterdam;
Energy Poverty Analysis – Aberdeen, Ghent;
Energy Savings Potential for Residential and Public Buildings–
Rotterdam;
Data Infrastructures – Montreuil;
Wind Energy Production – to be determined;
CO2 emission reduction scenarios – Ghent.
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 6

9. Tudor develops with each City a specific Module
Module (tool) and lead City:
Solar Energy Potential – Rotterdam;
Shallow Geothermal Energy Potential – Ludwigsburg;
Urban Heat Island effects – Ghent, Montreuil;
Green Roofs Suitability – Rotterdam;
Energy Poverty Analysis – Aberdeen, Ghent;
Energy Savings Potential for Residential and Public Buildings–
Rotterdam;
Data Infrastructures – Montreuil;
Wind Energy Production – to be determined;
CO2 emission reduction scenarios – Ghent.
Each tool can be applied to other cities.
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 6

10. iGUESS – one system to find sustainable solutions!
Decision support, impact assessment
analysis feedback
Baseline for CO2 emissions feed in
and other indicators Scenarios
visualisation
simulation optimisation
Potentials, inventories, integrated modelling
computation update
Input and basic data
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 7

11. iGUESS Modules (tools)
Uncertainty engine
Basic and input data Case study modules Baseline and scenarios Decision support
Electricity
Solar PV use
Solar irradiation
Water heating
Solar thermal use
Space heating
Cadaster CO2 baseline
Electricity computation Decision
Wind power use support
3D model with roofs
Electricity
Biomass (waste) use
Wind speed S. and w. heating
and direction District heating
Geothermal energy use
Biomass Space heating
availability Energy savings
Green roofs construction
Soil and rock properties
Energy demand
Fuel poverty analysis Scenario Impact
Refurbishment plan building
Green and water areas assessment
Impact on
Heat island effect
Distance to energy consumption
public transport CO2 emissions
Transport emissions
PM10 measurements
PM10 mapping
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 8

12. iGUESS Modules (tools)
Uncertainty engine
Basic and input data Case study modules Baseline and scenarios Decision support
Electricity
Solar PV use
Solar irradiation
Water heating
Solar thermal use
Space heating
Cadaster CO2 baseline
Electricity computation Decision
Wind power use support
3D model with roofs
Electricity
Biomass (waste) use
Wind speed S. and w. heating
and direction District heating
Geothermal energy use
Biomass Space heating
availability Energy savings
Green roofs construction
Soil and rock properties
Energy demand
Fuel poverty analysis Scenario Impact
Refurbishment plan building
Green and water areas assessment
Impact on
Heat island effect
Distance to energy consumption
public transport CO2 emissions
Transport emissions
PM10 measurements
PM10 mapping
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 8

13. Solar Energy Potential
Objective
Find solar energy production potential in my city.
Tell me where, how much and which roofs are suitable for PV
technology.
Approach
Major input data: 3D city model, cloud cover,...;
Compute high resolution (50 cm) solar cadastre with
established model;
Feed into energy scenarios until 2050.
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 9

14. Solar Energy Potential – Rotterdam
Solar irradiation in kWh/a Suitable roof area
(red=pitched, blue=flat roofs)
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 10

15. Shallow Geothermal Energy Potential
Objective
Find geothermal energy production potential in my city.
Tell me where, how much and which areas are suitable to drill
to extract heat for space heating.
Approach
Major input data: 3D geological information, cadastre and
building footprints, energy demand for buildings, ldots,
Compute potential number of boreholes per parcel and
associated heat extraction potential.
Estimate demand satisfied and feed into scenarios.
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 11

16. Shallow Geothermal Energy Potential
Maximum number of boreholes per parcel and percentage of
demand which can be satisfied
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 12

17. Shallow Geothermal Energy Potential
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 13

18. Energy Savings Potential (ESP) for Buildings
Objective
Predict energy needs of buildings at urban scale using a
bottom-up approach.
Identify energy savings potential for buildings at urban scale.
Approach
Major input data: Energy consumption, building information
(age, function, state, surface, occupants), reference data, . . . .
Compute energy consumption for different uses from historical
consumption data using above data in a regression analysis.
Analyse energy savings potential from consumption and
building renovation measures.
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 14

19. ESP – Gas Consumption at building level
Legend
Gas consumption (kWh)
NA
0 - 2431
2431 - 8873
8873 - 12139
12139 - 19334
19334 -
non-residential buildings 0 100 200 m
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 15

20. ESP – Electricity Consumption at block level
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 16

21. Fuel Poverty – Aberdeen
Objective
Map fuel poverty from building/block level to city scale.
Link to RES and Energy Savings potentials to tackle fuel
poverty and CO2 emission reductions at the same time.
Approach
Analyse relationships between variables for best disaggregation
model.
Use statistical model to compute Fuel Poverty at the smaller
scale from identified variables.
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 17

22. Fuel Poverty – Electoral Districts, Aberdeen 2005
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 18

23. Linking Modules to an Energy Scenario Tool
Uncertainty engine
Basic and input data Case study modules Baseline and scenarios Decision support
Electricity
Solar PV use
Solar irradiation
Water heating
Solar thermal use
Space heating
Cadaster CO2 baseline
Electricity computation Decision
Wind power use support
3D model with roofs
Electricity
Biomass (waste) use
Wind speed S. and w. heating
and direction District heating
Geothermal energy use
Biomass Space heating
availability Energy savings
Green roofs construction
Soil and rock properties
Energy demand
Fuel poverty analysis Scenario Impact
Refurbishment plan building
Green and water areas assessment
Impact on
Heat island effect
Distance to energy consumption
public transport CO2 emissions
Transport emissions
PM10 measurements
PM10 mapping
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 19

24. Linking Modules to an Energy Scenario Tool
Uncertainty engine
Basic and input data Case study modules Baseline and scenarios Decision support
Electricity
Solar PV use
Solar irradiation
Water heating
Solar thermal use
Space heating
Cadaster CO2 baseline
Electricity computation Decision
Wind power use support
3D model with roofs
Electricity
Biomass (waste) use
Wind speed S. and w. heating
and direction District heating
Geothermal energy use
Biomass Space heating
availability Energy savings
Green roofs construction
Soil and rock properties
Energy demand
Fuel poverty analysis Scenario Impact
Refurbishment plan building
Green and water areas assessment
Impact on
Heat island effect
Distance to energy consumption
public transport CO2 emissions
Transport emissions
PM10 measurements
PM10 mapping
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 19

25. Energy Scenario Modelling
Energy-Technology-Environment Model for MUSIC
(ETEMM)
A tool to explore urban development scenarios;
Based on a techno-econometric model of the city’s
infrastructure and energy demand;
Calculates long term CO2 emission trends;
Alternative scenarios can be developed using the potentials
calculated by the Modules;
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 20

26. Energy Scenario Modelling
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 21

27. Energy Scenario Modelling
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 22

28. Developing an Emission Reduction Scenario
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 23

29. What’s next ?
The MUSIC Consortium will
complete the spatial information on renewables potentials in
the cities and integration into the energy planning,
enable the 5 partner cities to make full use of the possibilities
of iGUESS via constant knowledge transfers and trainings,
enable the Cities to generate maps in a fully automated way,
look for possibilities to transport the tools and methods to
other European Cities.
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 24

30. What’s next ?
The MUSIC Consortium will
complete the spatial information on renewables potentials in
the cities and integration into the energy planning,
enable the 5 partner cities to make full use of the possibilities
of iGUESS via constant knowledge transfers and trainings,
enable the Cities to generate maps in a fully automated way,
look for possibilities to transport the tools and methods to
other European Cities.
⇒ Luxembourg would be a good starting point.
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 24

31. Thank you for your attention!
Olivier Baume, Christian Braun, Christopher Eykamp, Ru´ Martins,
ı
Olivier O’Nagy, Karine Paris, Kerry Pearce, Lu´ de Sousa, Daniel
ıs
Koster & Ulrich Leopold.
Contact: Ulrich.Leopold@Tudor.lu www.theMusicProject.eu
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 25

32. Live demo iGUESS
Start iGUESS Prototype
Start iGUESS Development Version
Start ETEM model
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 26

33. Questions for discussion
Where do you see links to your daily work and/or life?
What are the needs of your municipality to set up a more
targeted and efficient energy policy?
Do you have the necessary information to build future energy
scenarios for your city?
Are GIS tools usually used to plan energy related topics in your
field?
Would you like to collaborate on an implementation of such
Modules/approaches for Luxembourg?
How could citizens and local actors be involved?
What kind of information should tools, such as iGUESS,
contribute to make your work easier?
Do you see business opportunities with such approaches?
Do you see potential to get inspired by such tools to start new
initiatives or enhance existing one?
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 27

34. Data manager
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 28

35. Calculation Modules
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 29

36. Calculation Modules
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 30

37. WebGIS
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 31

38. iGUESS Challenges
Integrate different models (modules) accounting for change of
scale (building to city level),
Handle uncertainties in data, model parameters and equations,
Integrate heterogeneous information from distributed data
bases,
Implement complex spatial and temporal modelling tools as
web-based services,
Make complex spatial and temporal information accessible to
stakeholders with the help of a web-based interface.
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 32

39. Architecture & Technologies
Data Base Server Process Server
PostgreSQL PROJ.4 GDAL/OGR
PostGIS
GRASS R Statistical
Computing
Data Base
Connection Apache PyWPS
Map Server Web Server
PROJ.4 GDAL/OGR JQuery OpenLayers
UMN Apache GeoNetwork Rails GeoExt
MapServer
Web Coverage Web Feature Web Map Catalogue Service HTTP Web Processing
Service Service Service for the Web Connection Service
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 33

40. Optimisation of energy reference system
Households
Energy
Production
Agriculture
Imports/
Exports
Transport
Industry
Urban Energy Planning, Luxembourg – October 08, 2012 iGUESS 34