1. Idaho Housing Market
Fundamentals
Brian Greber, Director
Center for Business Research &
Economic Development
College of Business & Economics
Boise State University
6/2/2011
© Brian J. Greber 2011
6/2/2011
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2. Objective
• Summarize the extent of the Idaho housing “overbuild”
in the 2000-2010 period.
• Use commonly available data to relate the housing build
to growth in Idaho households.
• All data are available through US Bureau of the Census at
www.census.gov and US Department of Housing and
Urban Development at www.huduser.gov
© Brian J. Greber 2011
6/2/2011
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3. Key Definitions (www.census.gov)
• A housing unit is a house, an apartment, a mobile home, a group of
rooms, or a single room that is occupied (or if vacant, is intended for
occupancy) as separate living quarters. Separate living quarters are those in
which the occupants live and eat separately from any other persons in the
building and which have direct access from the outside of the building or
through a common hall.
• A household includes all the persons who occupy a housing unit. A
housing unit is a house, an apartment, a mobile home, a group of rooms, or
a single room that is occupied (or if vacant, is intended for occupancy) as
separate living quarters. Separate living quarters are those in which the
occupants live and eat separately from any other persons in the building
and which have direct access from the outside of the building or through a
common hall. The occupants may be a single family, one person living
alone, two or more families living together, or any other group of related or
unrelated persons who share living arrangements. (People not living in
households are classified as living in group quarters.)
© Brian J. Greber 2011
6/2/2011
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4. Key Definitions (www.census.gov)
• Building permits represent the number of new housing units authorized
by building permits in the United States. The building permits data relate to
new private housing units intended for occupancy on a housekeeping basis.
They exclude mobile homes (trailers), hotels, motels, and group residential
structures, such as nursing homes and college dormitories. They also
exclude conversions of and alterations to existing buildings.
– These are typically referred to as “housing starts”
• The homeowner vacancy rate is the proportion of the homeowner
inventory that is vacant “for sale.” It is computed by dividing the total
number of vacant units “for sale only” by the sum of owner-occupied units,
vacant units that are “for sale only,” and vacant units that have been sold
but not yet occupied; and then multiplying by 100.
© Brian J. Greber 2011
6/2/2011
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5. Housing Fundamentals
• Growth in housing stock should equal growth in
households within a region.
• Second homes can support greater levels of growth in
housing stock, but are always “at risk” of becoming
future housing “supply” as economic circumstances and
lifestyles change.
• The “true housing overhang” is the rate of build in excess
of growth in household formations.
© Brian J. Greber 2011
6/2/2011
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6. Idaho Housing Snapshot
Idaho Housing Fundamentals 2010 2000 1990 1980
Totals
Population 1,567,582 1,293,955 1,006,734 943,935
Households 579,408 469,315 360,718 324,107
Housing Units 667,796 527,825 413,322 375,200
Annual Change (Decade Prior)
Population 27,363 28,722 6,280
Households 11,009 10,860 3,661
Housing Units 13,997 11,450 3,812
Annual Average (Decade Prior)
Housing Permits 12,475 10,693 3,944
Annual "Gap"
Change in Housing Units vs Households 2,988 591 151
Housing Permits vs Change in Households 1,466 (167) 283
Decade "Gap"
Change in Housing Units vs Households 29,878 5,906 1,511
Housing Permits vs Change in Households 14,658 (1,669) 2,826
Source: US Census Bureau www.census.gov
© Brian J. Greber 2011
6/2/2011
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7. Implications
• Between 2000 and 2010, Idaho added approximately 30 thousand
more housing units than the growth in households indicated was
required.
– Housing permits (a.k.a. “starts”) also outstripped household growth by
approximately 15 thousand units
• Note that permits differ from units due to lags between starts and additions to
housing stock, and the role that manufactured homes, apartment conversions,
etc. play in adding to housing units.
• Over the last 20 years, we have averaged household growth of 11
thousand households per year; this implies a housing overhang of 1.36
years on a permits basis and 2.72 years on a housing unit basis.
• In 2009-2010, household growth in Idaho slowed to 8 thousand per
year. If that rate continues, we have an overhang of 1.87 – 3.75 years!
• These rates assume no new starts, in fact we have average 4.5
thousand starts over the past few years. At these rates it will take as
much as 4 year to work off our inventory overhang.
© Brian J. Greber 2011
6/2/2011
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8. Another piece of the puzzle
Home Owner Vacany Rate Trends
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
Percentage Vacancy
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Homeowner Vacancy Rate 4 qtr MA
Data Source: US Department of Housing and Urban Development
www.huduser.org
© Brian J. Greber 2011
6/2/2011
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9. Implications of Home Owner
Vacancy Data
• Homeowner vacancy has grown from approximately
1.5% of owned units to 3.3%.
• The 2010 volume of homes that qualified as “homeowner
vacancy) was 12,814
– This represent a step up of 1.8% from more “normal levels”.
• This suggests a surplus of 7.5 thousand homes above
“normal levels”
• This is “the tip of the ice berg”
© Brian J. Greber 2011
6/2/2011
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