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Long Island Real Estate Markets 411 Trends for 2012

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Edie Katz Presents Long Island Real Estate Markets 411 January 2012 Webinar titled Trends in Resident Real Estate on Long island for 2012

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Long Island Real Estate Markets 411 Trends for 2012

  1. 1. ~ 2012 WEBINAR SERIES ~ Hosted by Edie Katz | Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker Laffey Fine Homes ekatz@laffey.com www.ediesellslongisland.com 516-639-1172
  2. 2. WELCOME ….
  3. 3. AFFORDABILITY "Housing affordability has improved dramatically… The monthly mortgage payment for a median-priced single-family home is now $700, compared to $1,140 in 2006 —a decline of nearly 40%. Nationally, purchase mortgage payments now account for only 13% of monthly median family income, the lowest percentage on record (since 1971), and compared to 23% in the 1Q of 2006.” - David Stiff, Chief Economist at Fiserv
  4. 4. 100 YEARS IN THE MAKING
  5. 5. OVERVIEW What History Tells Us…Case Schiller Reports from 2011 Nov 9, 2011 Fiserv Case-Shiller Home Price Insights: Greater Affordability and Strengthening Economy Restoring Price Stability to U.S. Housing Market • Home prices in the U.S. expected to decline 3.6 percent into mid-2012, and then rebound 2.4 percent in second half 2012 through first half 2013 • Price declines and low mortgage rates have resulted in dramatic improvement in housing affordability • Ratio of monthly mortgage payment to median family income lowest on record; Monthly mortgage payment for a median-priced single-family home nearly 40 percent lower than at peak Feb 1, 2011Fiserv Case-Shiller Home Price Insights: After Five Years of Record Declines, U.S. Home Prices Begin To Stabilize • 75 percent of U.S. metro areas expected to see stable prices by end of 2011 •San Diego, Washington, D.C., and San Francisco home prices have stabilized •Minneapolis, New York City and Portland, Ore. will stabilize by end of 2011 Nov 15, 2010 Fiserv Case-Shiller Home Price Insights: U.S. Single Family Home Prices Up 3.6 Percent, but Double-Dip Decline Expected In Many Markets • Metro areas with early 2010 price bounces expected to experience corrections through 2011
  6. 6. NAR Reports are upbeat… Washington, DC, December 29, 2011 - Pending Home Sales Rise Again in November, Highest in a Year-and-a-Half - Pending home sales continued to gain in November and reached the highest level in 19 months, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, increased 7.3 percent to 100.1 in November from an upwardly revised 93.3 in October and is 5.9 percent above November 2010 when it stood at 94.5. The October upward revision resulted in a 10.4 percent monthly gain. The last time the index was higher was in April 2010 when it reached 111.5 as buyers rushed to beat the deadline for the home buyer tax credit. The data reflects contracts but not closings. ~~~And Prior Reports State the Same~~~ Washington, DC, December 21, 2011 - Existing-Home Sales Continue to Climb in November Existing-home sales rose again in November and remain above a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Also released today were periodic benchmark revisions with downward adjustments to sales and inventory data since 2007, led by a decline in for-sale-by-owners. Although re-benchmarking resulted in lower adjustments to several years of home sales data, the month-to- month characterization of market conditions did not change. There are no changes to home prices or month’s supply. The latest monthly data shows total existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 4.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.42 million in November from 4.25 million in October, and are 12.2 percent above the 3.94 million- unit pace in November 2010
  7. 7. ABOUT LONG ISLAND …. • LARGEST ISLAND IN THE U.S.A. • 118 MILES LONG COVERING OVER 1400 SQUARE MILES • LOCATED EAST OF THE ‘BIG APPLE’ – NYC • LARGER THAN THE STATE OF RHODE ISLAND • POPULATION FROM 2010 CENSUS 7.5 Million+ Long Island has a wide range of demographics, cultures, lifestyles and wealth An area where a $120,000 studio co-op is less than 3 miles from a $9.8 million waterfront estate. From cottages & houseboats to colonials and estates, Long Island has it all!
  8. 8. WHERE ARE WE?
  9. 9. WHAT YOU SHOULD LOOK FORIN THE LOCAL MARKETS… Nassau County
  10. 10. HYPERLOCAL MARKETS • PORT WASHINGTON MARKET SNAPSHOT
  11. 11. PORT WASHINGTONUnder Contract PORT WASHINGTON - Residential Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Total2009 14 11 11 18 23 26 15 16 20 21 11 17 2032010 6 19 22 22 16 24 12 15 10 16 16 11 1892011 9 11 19 17 24 18 23 17 11 12 18 16 195 Overall Closed Market Stats: Median SP Average SP Units Average DOM2011 as of 12/31 692,500 720,011 184 1122010 662,500 703,101 170 1032009 667,500 697,540 167 1272008 730,000 774,330 110 116 CONTRACTS UP MARGINALLY BY ALMOST 3.2% IN 2011 MEDIAN CLOSED PRICE UP SLIGHTLY BY 4.5% IN 2011 AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET UP FROM 2010 BUT STILL LOWER THAN 2008 FIGURES
  12. 12. SANDS POINT Under Contract SANDS POINT - Residential Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Total2009 1 0 2 3 3 4 3 0 1 2 1 2 222010 1 1 2 3 5 2 1 7 3 1 1 5 322011 3 2 2 3 3 1 4 1 0 1 4 1 25 Overall Closed Market Stats: Median SP Average SP Units Average DOM2011 as of 12/31 1,525,000 2,717,448 29 2032010 1,717,500 2,118,603 29 1982009 1,900,000 2,155,294 17 1472008 2,500,000 2,528,295 11 119All figures approximate. All info should be independently verified. As Per MLS Closed & Under Contract 1/1/08 to 12/31/08, 1/1/09 to 12/31/09, 1/1/10 to 12/31/10, 1/1/11to 12/31/11. CONTRACTS DOWN 21.8% IN 2011 MEDIAN CLOSED PRICE DOWN 11.2% IN 2011 AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET INCREASED OVER LAST 4 YEARS
  13. 13. THE FACTORS … • CONSUMER BUYING POWER • THE VALUE OF EXPERIENCE • CLEANING UP THE FINANCIAL LOG JAM • SOUND INVESTING
  14. 14. MORTGAGE RATES – 30 YR FIXED 1/01/2011
  15. 15. LESS DIY…
  16. 16. IMPACT OF SHADOW INVENTORY &FORECLOSURES Rising foreclosure start rates will add to the distressed property inventory and drive home prices further down, according to a report from Fitch Ratings, reflecting the impact of last years robo- signing scandal. More than 10% of severely delinquent loans in private- label residential mortgage- backed securities are now moving into foreclosure each month. Thats nearly double the rate from a year ago.
  17. 17. RETURN ON INVESTMENT (January 1, 2000 – December 1, 2011) MSN Money.com, Case Shiller
  18. 18. RECAP & REVIEWSTATISTICSConsider what’s happening nationallyMaintain focus on what’s happening locallyStay informed about what’s happening in your town, neighborhood & streetMAKING A DECISION TO PUT YOUR PROPERTY ON THE MARKETConsider all of the above PLUS• What is Your Time Frame?• Are Permits Valid?• Pre-Inspection Necessary?• What is the Value of your Home in the current market?WORK WITH A PROFESSIONALAdvanced online/offline Marketing of your PropertyConfidential, Professional and Expert ServicePEACE of Mind
  19. 19. THANK YOU!!!~ 2012 WEBINAR SERIES ~ Hosted by Edie Katz | Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker Laffey Fine Homes ekatz@laffey.com www.ediesellslongisland.com 516-639-1172

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