This document discusses four potential scenarios for the future in 2030 and the importance of challenging assumptions and biases about the future: 1) "The Great Divide" scenario depicts a future where global elites thrive while the middle class slides into economic recession. 2) "Smart Tech, Dumb Society" scenario where dramatic tech advances fail to deliver on promises of improving lives through technologies like IoT. 3) "Off the Grid" scenario where distributed power and wireless access allow communities to thrive independently. 4) "YOLO, FOMO, JOMO" scenario depicts three consumer cohorts defined by their attitudes towards debt, staying trendy, and simple lifestyles. The document emphasizes the

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Four Scenarios for
the Next Decade
Atul Dighe
Futurist

3. The Impossible
Comeback Scenario
• Oracle Team USA wins the
America’s Cup in one of the
greatest comebacks in sports
history
• Superior technology, data
gathering and talent was almost
beat by a lack of scenario
planning
• Understanding our biases and
assumptions are critical to
winning in the future
Wikipedia.org image

4. Our Biases Get in the Way
• Normalcy Bias: “That will never happen…”
• Recency Bias: “I just heard about…”
• Confirmation Bias: “See, I knew I was right all along…”
• Status Quo Bias: “The more things change, the more they
stay the same…”

5. We make assumptions that need to be
challenged. We assume…
• The past is a strong predictor of the future
• Logic and data will prevail over emotions
• More data and insights will drive better decisions
• Changes in consumer preferences will be evolutionary
rather than revolutionary
• Trends under way today will continue on their current
trajectory and at their current speed

6. Four Versions of the Year 2030
Images, clockwise from top left: OxfamBlogs.org; Wikipedia.org; CEB; Solarpedia.com
#FOMO

7. The Great Divide
Global elites continue to thrive, with access
to the highest-quality nutrition, healthcare,
education and business opportunities, while
the middle class rapidly slides into a
massive social-economic recession.
OxfamBlogs.org image

8. Smart Tech,
Dumb Society
Wikipedia.org image
Despite dramatic technological advances
in inter-device connectivity, robotics and
life sciences, our ability to actually derive
value from “big data” is very limited —
the promise of the Internet of Things
making our lives better never materializes.

9. Off the Grid
Distributed power generation and advances in
power storage along with ubiquitous wireless
high-speed Internet access and self-
sustainable food production allow entire
communities to thrive completely “off the grid.”
Solarpedia.com image

10. YOLO, FOMO, JOMO
Generational and social/economic cohorts yield
to three distinct types of consumers: those who
embrace the YOLO mentality and are willing to
take on debt and consume beyond their means;
those who have a very real FOMO and are
continually seeking to stay on trend and
exclusively follow the wisdom of the crowds;
and those who purposely embrace JOMO and a
voluntarily simplistic lifestyle.
CEB images
#FOMO

11. Are we asking ourselves the tough questions
about the future?
“When information truly is ubiquitous, when reach and connectivity are
completely global, when computing resources are infinite, and when a
whole new set of impossibilities are not only possible, but happening,
what will that do to our business?”
Jonathan Rosenberg, head of the innovation portfolio at Google
“What one word do we want to own in the minds of our customers,
employees and partners?”
Matthew May, author and innovation expert
“What is something you believe that nearly no one agrees with you on?”
Peter Thiel, partner, Founders Fund and co-founder of PayPal

12. Are we asking ourselves the tough questions
about the future?
• Assume you’re able to ask a fortune teller three questions about
2030. What information would you seek? What are three things you
know for certain and do not need to ask the fortune teller?
• What biases and assumptions about the future does our leadership
team currently hold that need to be challenged to guide us to
success between now and 2030?
• What biases and assumptions about the future do you currently
hold that need to be challenged to guide us to success between
now and 2030?

13. Questions?

14. The final and most important question:
What will you do differently as a result
of attending Iconosphere 2014?