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BASEL II
and its implications
Hazel Taylor         David Robertson     Alan Smith     May 2008

Head of Regulatory   Head of Programme   Head of Risk
Reporting            Delivery            Strategy
Forward-looking statements

This presentation and subsequent discussion may contain certain forward-looking statements with respect
 to the financial condition, results of operations and business of the Group.
These forward-looking statements represent the Group’s expectations or beliefs concerning future events
and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainty that could cause actual results, performance or
events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements.
Additional detailed information concerning important factors that could cause actual results to differ
materially is available in our Annual Report.




                                                                                                          2
Content


• The journey to Basel II (David Robertson)
• HSBC Basel II analysis and disclosure (Hazel Taylor)
• Pillar 2 and stress testing in a Basel II environment (Alan Smith)




                                                                       3
The journey to Basel II
The journey to Basel II


Major five-year infrastructure programme

• Development of Group and local models for PD, LGD and EAD
• Central system to capture granular data from 83 countries and generate RWA calculations
• Contrast with relative simplicity of Basel I process
• FSA approval given for majority IRBA approach for credit risk




                                                                                            5
Credit risk building blocks


                               Credit risk




     Borrower
                                                 Facility characteristics
   characteristics




     Who are you          How much exposure do           Time to              What is the % you
     lending to?            you expect to have         repayment?            expect to lose, given
                           should the borrower                              seniority, collateral and
                                 default?                                    other loss mitigation?




 Probability of Default    Exposure at Default          Maturity              Loss Given Default
         (PD)                   (EAD)                    (M)                        (LGD)




                                                                                                   6
Basel II capital calculations


Expected Loss (EL)

• PD x LGD x EAD
• Excess of EL over impairment allowances is a deduction from capital

Unexpected Loss (UL)

• Capital requirement (K) determined by regulatory formulae for each asset type
• PD, LGD and Maturity are factors
• RWA = K x 12.5 x EAD x 1.06 (scaling factor)




                                                                                  7
Generic example 1
           Corporate: Unexpected and Expected Loss
                                                  35
                                                              Unexpected Loss                                                                            PD =
                                                                                                          PD =                        PD =
                                                              Expected Loss
                                                                                                          0.1%                        1.0%               10.0%
                                                  30
                           ent and EL (%of EA )




                                                                                                                                      Unexpected
                                             D




                                                  25                                                                                  Loss


                                                  20
                                                                                                                                      Expected Loss
 egulatory capital requirem




                                                  15




                                                  10
R




                                                   5
                                                             PD floor
                                                             (0.03%)
                                                   0
                                                       AAA   AA+   AA    AA-    A+   A      A-   BB B +   BBB    B BB -   BB+   BB    BB-    B+     B    B-   CC C
                                                                                     Im plie d e x te rnal rating e quiv ale nt PDs          M = 2.5 years;
                                                                                                                                             LGD = 45%

                                                                                                                                                                     8
Generic example 2
Residential mortgages: Unexpected and Expected Loss
                                        8


                                                                                              Unexpected Loss
                                                                                  Expected Loss
                                f A )
R g la ryc p l re u m n a dE (%o E D




                                        6


                                                   Unexpected Loss
 e u to a ita q ire e t n L




                                                   Expected Loss




                                        4




                                        2




                                        0
                                            0.03       3.00        6.00   9.00   12.00      15.00        18.00   21.00   24.00   27.00   30.00
                                                                                  Probability of Default (% )
                                                                                                                                 LGD = 10%


                                                                                                                                                 9
Generic example 3
Corporate: impact of increasing LGDs
                               50


                                                                                    PD =                         PD =            PD =
                                                                                    0.1%                         1.0%            10.0%
                               40
                       f A )
R g la ryc p l a dE (%o E D




                               30
 e u to a ita n L




                                                                                                                 LGD =
                                                                                                                 65%

                               20




                               10




                                                                                                                  LGD =
                                0                                                                                 45%
                                    AAA   AA+   AA   AA-   A+   A      A-   BBB+    BBB    BBB-   BB+       BB   BB-    B+   B   B-   CCC
                                                                    Implied external rating equivalent PD
                                                                                                                                 M = 2.5
                                                                                                                                 years


                                                                                                                                            10
Generic example 4
Residential mortgages: impact of increasing LGDs
                               25




                               20
                       f A )
R g lato c p l an E (%o E D




                               15
        ry a ita d L




                                                                                           LGD = 25%

                               10
                                                                                       LGD = 10%
 e u




                                5




                                0
                                    0.03   3.00   6.00   9.00   12.00      15.00       18.00    21.00   24.00   27.00   30.00
                                                                 Probability of Default (% )




                                                                                                                                11
HSBC Basel II analysis and disclosure
Disclosures


Narrative disclosures:

• Capital management and allocation
• Capital measurement
 – What the FSA requires
 – Local requirements may differ
   – Not all on Basel II locally
   – But must do Basel II for Group reporting




                                                13
Disclosures


Narrative disclosures (cont’d)

• IRBA for majority of businesses wef 1 January 2008
• IRBA is more risk-sensitive and relies on the bank’s own assessment of risk
• There is no going back! (from IRBA to STDA)
• Operational risk – using standardised approach for Group
• Capital base impacts
  – Collective impairment allowances
  – Expected losses less impairment allowances

• Pillar 2 – linked to capital management framework
• Pillar 3 – first disclosures qualitative during 2008, quantitative during first half of 2009 as at 31
  December 2008




                                                                                                          14
Analysis


Basel I versus Basel II (as at 31Dec07)



• Capital base reduced by USD20 billion due to collective impairment allowances removed
  and EL adjustment


• RWAs at a similar level to Basel I (less than 1% difference)


• Overall impact was to reduce the tier 1 ratio from 9.3% to 9.0%


• And total capital ratio from 13.6% to 11.8%




                                                                                          15
Disclosures


                                                                                                                    153
Numerical disclosures on a pro-forma Basel II basis                160
                                                                                                                   13.6%
                                                                                                                                    14

(as at 31Dec07):
                                                                                                                            133
• Composition of regulatory capital table
                                                                   140
                                                                                                                           11.8%    12


  – Core tier 1 USD91 billion, ratio 8.1%                          120

    – After 50% of EL adjustment USD4.5 billion                                             105                                     10
                                                                                           9.3%      102
                                                                          94                         9.0
• Total tier 1 USD102 billion, ratio 9.0%                          100   8.4%     91
                                                                                 8.1%
                                                                                                                                    8

• Total capital USD133 billion, ratio 11.8%




                                                                                                                                         Ratio (%)
                                                           USDbn
                                                                   80

  – After total EL adjustment of USD9 billion                                                                                       6

  – After removal of collective impairment allowances of           60

    USD11 billion
                                                                                                                                    4

• Target                                                           40




  – Tier 1 target range: 7.5% to 9.0%                                                                                               2
                                                                   20




                                                                     0                                                              0
                                                                          Core Tier 1        Total Tier 1           Total Capital

                                                                                        Basel I         Basel II



                                                                                                                                         16
Analysis


Basel II pro-forma RWAs of USD1,129 billion
(as at 31Dec07)

• Analysis by risk type:
  – Credit risk USD976 billion (86%)
  – Market risk USD46 billion (4%)
  – Operational risk USD107 billion (10%)

• Basel I RWAs of USD1,124 billion                        Credit risk   Market risk      Operational risk


  – Analysis by type of book:
  – Banking book USD1,021 billion (91%)
  – Trading book USD103 billion (9%)
    – Includes counterparty credit risk and market risk




                                                                  Banking book        Trading book




                                                                                                            17
Pillar 2 and stress testing in a
Basel II environment
Basel Pillar 2, HSBC ICAAP and Stress Testing


               Pillar 1                                       Pillar 2
                                                              Pillar                                           Pillar 3
         Minimum capital                            Supervisory review                                 Market discipline
    Minimum regulatory capital                      Internal capital adequacy                      Regulatory requirements for
requirements for credit, market and                 assessment process and                          external disclosure of risk
         operational risk                              supervisory review                                  information


        CAPITAL: Relationship between Pillar 1, Pillar 2 and the ICAAP

               Pillar 1                                       Pillar 2                                          ICAAP
•   Minimum capital requirement              •   Supervisory assessment – via the             •   Firm's own assessment of its capital needs
                                                 Individual Capital Guidance (ICG) – of
•   Calculated using prescribed parameters                                                    •   Economic capital is an important part of the
                                                 amount of regulatory capital considered
    (advanced or standardised)                                                                    framework to supplement the Pillar 1
                                                 necessary to cover:
                                                                                                  regulatory capital analysis
•   Point-in-time assessment
                                                 – Pillar 1 risks (including any
                                                                                              •   Stress analysis is carried out for the ‘1 in
                                                   uncertainties in their calculation); and
                                                                                                  25’ scenario
                                                 – Risks not included in Pillar 1
                                             •   Capital planning and stress testing is an
                                                 important part of the assessment


                                                                                                                                                 19
HSBC capital principles and stress testing


• Embodied in HSBC Capital Management Principles approved by the Group Management Board
• Capital – “the resources necessary to cover unexpected losses arising from the risk which HSBC
  accepts in the form of discretionary risk or runs in the form of non-discretionary risk”




                                                                                                   20
HSBC stress testing framework and principles


• Stress testing covers the techniques used to assess all facets of risk vulnerability facing the HSBC
  Group and its operations
• HSBC stress testing approaches fall into two categories:
  – Sensitivity analysis (where the impact of a single factor is considered with all others being held unchanged); and
  – Scenario analysis (where the impact of changing multiple simultaneous factors are considered)

• Stress testing allows HSBC senior management to:
  – Build an understanding of the sensitivities around the core assumptions in the strategic and capital plans, allowing
    senior management to formulate proactive mitigating management action should actual conditions start to reflect the
    stress scenario conditions
  – Ensure that HSBC can meet its financial obligations across an economic cycle and it has sufficient capital to
    withstand a severe correction and/or a period of prolonged negative trading conditions

• Stress testing scenarios consider the full range of risks within the HSBC risk framework




                                                                                                                           21
Scenario stress testing process – critical features


                              Scenario                                 Translation
                              Definition                               Translate stress scenario into
                              Define macro stress scenario             risk factors




     Feedback
     Get feedback on results and                     Stress scenario                     Calculation
     concerns for new scenario                                                           Calculate Impact on drivers
     definition                                          lifecycle                       within risk categories




                             Analysis and
                             Reporting
                             Analyse reports to
                                                                   Aggregation
                             highlight significant                 Aggregate results
                             results



                                                                                                                       22
Stress testing governance


• Global stress testing oversight forum – group and regional level
• Scenarios – mandatory and optional
• Pillar 1 versus Pillar 2
• Mitigating actions and early warning indicators
• Benchmarks/Tolerance




                                                                     23
Question & Answer

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HSBC Delivering while de-levering

  • 1. BASEL II and its implications Hazel Taylor David Robertson Alan Smith May 2008 Head of Regulatory Head of Programme Head of Risk Reporting Delivery Strategy
  • 2. Forward-looking statements This presentation and subsequent discussion may contain certain forward-looking statements with respect to the financial condition, results of operations and business of the Group. These forward-looking statements represent the Group’s expectations or beliefs concerning future events and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainty that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Additional detailed information concerning important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is available in our Annual Report. 2
  • 3. Content • The journey to Basel II (David Robertson) • HSBC Basel II analysis and disclosure (Hazel Taylor) • Pillar 2 and stress testing in a Basel II environment (Alan Smith) 3
  • 4. The journey to Basel II
  • 5. The journey to Basel II Major five-year infrastructure programme • Development of Group and local models for PD, LGD and EAD • Central system to capture granular data from 83 countries and generate RWA calculations • Contrast with relative simplicity of Basel I process • FSA approval given for majority IRBA approach for credit risk 5
  • 6. Credit risk building blocks Credit risk Borrower Facility characteristics characteristics Who are you How much exposure do Time to What is the % you lending to? you expect to have repayment? expect to lose, given should the borrower seniority, collateral and default? other loss mitigation? Probability of Default Exposure at Default Maturity Loss Given Default (PD) (EAD) (M) (LGD) 6
  • 7. Basel II capital calculations Expected Loss (EL) • PD x LGD x EAD • Excess of EL over impairment allowances is a deduction from capital Unexpected Loss (UL) • Capital requirement (K) determined by regulatory formulae for each asset type • PD, LGD and Maturity are factors • RWA = K x 12.5 x EAD x 1.06 (scaling factor) 7
  • 8. Generic example 1 Corporate: Unexpected and Expected Loss 35 Unexpected Loss PD = PD = PD = Expected Loss 0.1% 1.0% 10.0% 30 ent and EL (%of EA ) Unexpected D 25 Loss 20 Expected Loss egulatory capital requirem 15 10 R 5 PD floor (0.03%) 0 AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BB B + BBB B BB - BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CC C Im plie d e x te rnal rating e quiv ale nt PDs M = 2.5 years; LGD = 45% 8
  • 9. Generic example 2 Residential mortgages: Unexpected and Expected Loss 8 Unexpected Loss Expected Loss f A ) R g la ryc p l re u m n a dE (%o E D 6 Unexpected Loss e u to a ita q ire e t n L Expected Loss 4 2 0 0.03 3.00 6.00 9.00 12.00 15.00 18.00 21.00 24.00 27.00 30.00 Probability of Default (% ) LGD = 10% 9
  • 10. Generic example 3 Corporate: impact of increasing LGDs 50 PD = PD = PD = 0.1% 1.0% 10.0% 40 f A ) R g la ryc p l a dE (%o E D 30 e u to a ita n L LGD = 65% 20 10 LGD = 0 45% AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC Implied external rating equivalent PD M = 2.5 years 10
  • 11. Generic example 4 Residential mortgages: impact of increasing LGDs 25 20 f A ) R g lato c p l an E (%o E D 15 ry a ita d L LGD = 25% 10 LGD = 10% e u 5 0 0.03 3.00 6.00 9.00 12.00 15.00 18.00 21.00 24.00 27.00 30.00 Probability of Default (% ) 11
  • 12. HSBC Basel II analysis and disclosure
  • 13. Disclosures Narrative disclosures: • Capital management and allocation • Capital measurement – What the FSA requires – Local requirements may differ – Not all on Basel II locally – But must do Basel II for Group reporting 13
  • 14. Disclosures Narrative disclosures (cont’d) • IRBA for majority of businesses wef 1 January 2008 • IRBA is more risk-sensitive and relies on the bank’s own assessment of risk • There is no going back! (from IRBA to STDA) • Operational risk – using standardised approach for Group • Capital base impacts – Collective impairment allowances – Expected losses less impairment allowances • Pillar 2 – linked to capital management framework • Pillar 3 – first disclosures qualitative during 2008, quantitative during first half of 2009 as at 31 December 2008 14
  • 15. Analysis Basel I versus Basel II (as at 31Dec07) • Capital base reduced by USD20 billion due to collective impairment allowances removed and EL adjustment • RWAs at a similar level to Basel I (less than 1% difference) • Overall impact was to reduce the tier 1 ratio from 9.3% to 9.0% • And total capital ratio from 13.6% to 11.8% 15
  • 16. Disclosures 153 Numerical disclosures on a pro-forma Basel II basis 160 13.6% 14 (as at 31Dec07): 133 • Composition of regulatory capital table 140 11.8% 12 – Core tier 1 USD91 billion, ratio 8.1% 120 – After 50% of EL adjustment USD4.5 billion 105 10 9.3% 102 94 9.0 • Total tier 1 USD102 billion, ratio 9.0% 100 8.4% 91 8.1% 8 • Total capital USD133 billion, ratio 11.8% Ratio (%) USDbn 80 – After total EL adjustment of USD9 billion 6 – After removal of collective impairment allowances of 60 USD11 billion 4 • Target 40 – Tier 1 target range: 7.5% to 9.0% 2 20 0 0 Core Tier 1 Total Tier 1 Total Capital Basel I Basel II 16
  • 17. Analysis Basel II pro-forma RWAs of USD1,129 billion (as at 31Dec07) • Analysis by risk type: – Credit risk USD976 billion (86%) – Market risk USD46 billion (4%) – Operational risk USD107 billion (10%) • Basel I RWAs of USD1,124 billion Credit risk Market risk Operational risk – Analysis by type of book: – Banking book USD1,021 billion (91%) – Trading book USD103 billion (9%) – Includes counterparty credit risk and market risk Banking book Trading book 17
  • 18. Pillar 2 and stress testing in a Basel II environment
  • 19. Basel Pillar 2, HSBC ICAAP and Stress Testing Pillar 1 Pillar 2 Pillar Pillar 3 Minimum capital Supervisory review Market discipline Minimum regulatory capital Internal capital adequacy Regulatory requirements for requirements for credit, market and assessment process and external disclosure of risk operational risk supervisory review information CAPITAL: Relationship between Pillar 1, Pillar 2 and the ICAAP Pillar 1 Pillar 2 ICAAP • Minimum capital requirement • Supervisory assessment – via the • Firm's own assessment of its capital needs Individual Capital Guidance (ICG) – of • Calculated using prescribed parameters • Economic capital is an important part of the amount of regulatory capital considered (advanced or standardised) framework to supplement the Pillar 1 necessary to cover: regulatory capital analysis • Point-in-time assessment – Pillar 1 risks (including any • Stress analysis is carried out for the ‘1 in uncertainties in their calculation); and 25’ scenario – Risks not included in Pillar 1 • Capital planning and stress testing is an important part of the assessment 19
  • 20. HSBC capital principles and stress testing • Embodied in HSBC Capital Management Principles approved by the Group Management Board • Capital – “the resources necessary to cover unexpected losses arising from the risk which HSBC accepts in the form of discretionary risk or runs in the form of non-discretionary risk” 20
  • 21. HSBC stress testing framework and principles • Stress testing covers the techniques used to assess all facets of risk vulnerability facing the HSBC Group and its operations • HSBC stress testing approaches fall into two categories: – Sensitivity analysis (where the impact of a single factor is considered with all others being held unchanged); and – Scenario analysis (where the impact of changing multiple simultaneous factors are considered) • Stress testing allows HSBC senior management to: – Build an understanding of the sensitivities around the core assumptions in the strategic and capital plans, allowing senior management to formulate proactive mitigating management action should actual conditions start to reflect the stress scenario conditions – Ensure that HSBC can meet its financial obligations across an economic cycle and it has sufficient capital to withstand a severe correction and/or a period of prolonged negative trading conditions • Stress testing scenarios consider the full range of risks within the HSBC risk framework 21
  • 22. Scenario stress testing process – critical features Scenario Translation Definition Translate stress scenario into Define macro stress scenario risk factors Feedback Get feedback on results and Stress scenario Calculation concerns for new scenario Calculate Impact on drivers definition lifecycle within risk categories Analysis and Reporting Analyse reports to Aggregation highlight significant Aggregate results results 22
  • 23. Stress testing governance • Global stress testing oversight forum – group and regional level • Scenarios – mandatory and optional • Pillar 1 versus Pillar 2 • Mitigating actions and early warning indicators • Benchmarks/Tolerance 23