HS Code 3902: Polymers of Polyproylene Analysis
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This document discusses about global markets, market trends, India's export partners. This document explores certain potential market for India and strategies that can be used to achieve them. This data is till 2012 and is from WITS.
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HS Code 3902: Polymers of Polyproylene Analysis
- 1. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS Section A Group 5 Abhay Sharma 1A Aniruddh Srivastava 9A Devansh Doshi 16A Manasi Jain 23A Sachin Gupta 38A Vidooshi Joshi 55A
- 2. Agenda Polymers of Propylene India’s Exports Trends Export Markets Import Markets Global Markets Important Markets for India Export Strategies
- 4. Product 390210 - Polypropylene, in primary forms 390220 - Polyisobutylene, in primary forms 390230 - Propylene copolymers, in primary forms 390290 - Polymers of propylene or of other olefins, in primary forms
- 5. Application Packaging and labeling Textiles Stationery Automotive Components Loudspeakers Polymer Banknotes
- 6. Properties Rugged Resistant to Chemical Solvents Fatigue Resistant Mouldable Flexible Lightweight
- 8. Industry Characteristics • High capital costs • High energy costs • Shortage of natural gas • Lack of skilled manpower • Low focus on end products exports • Cyclical nature of business 6-8 years
- 10. India’s Export 611289.203 1978376.494 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 ExportValueinUSD1000 Most of the growth has been seen in the last three years Source: WITS
- 11. Key Export Drivers: Domestic Production OPAL and BPCL investing in new capacity development 3650 3945 4295 4340 4521 4596 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 2011-12 2012-13P 2013-14P 2014-15P 2015-16P 2016-17P Production Production Pattern in India in kilotons Source: CPMAI Existing players planning for capacity expansion Expected increase in production Source: CPMAI
- 12. Key Export Drivers: End Users Existing High Volume Users Automobiles Packaging Upcoming High Volume Markets Construction Medical Devices Electricals Transportation Long term growth
- 13. Key Export Inhibitor: Crude Oil Prices Key raw material exposed to price volatility Source: Macro Trends
- 14. Key Export Inhibitor: Price Wars Gulf Countries always enjoyed a price advantage Proximity to raw material Alleged Government Subsidy Source: Aljazira Capital India contemplating on hiking import duty
- 15. India’s Declining Advantage 2.68 1.4 RCA in 2003 RCA in 2012 Need to keep a check
- 16. India’s Cost Import duty of 7.5% able to protect Indian producers 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Cost (USD per kgm) Export Import
- 17. Trade within HS 3902 -200,000.00 -100,000.00 0.00 100,000.00 200,000.00 300,000.00 400,000.00 500,000.00 600,000.00 700,000.00 800,000.00 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Net Trade in 1000 USD Polypropylene Propylene copolymers Other Polyisobutylene Net exporter of ONLY polypropylene
- 18. Export Markets
- 19. India’s Export Trends: Top Markets 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 Top Export Market 2012 China has a major share in exports
- 20. India’s Export Trends: Top Growing Markets 136.34% 100.34% 83.02% 66.64% 65.07% 58.64% 55.42% 51.70% 49.39% 49.23% 0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 100.00% 120.00% 140.00% 160.00% Top Export Markets by Growth Africa critical for growth in exports
- 21. India’s Export Trends: New Markets Exports only in last three years
- 22. India’s Export Trends: Declining Markets Top 40 percentile markets having negative CAGR
- 23. India’s Export Trends: High Trade Market Top 20 countries based on TII in 2012 India is concentrating on Africa
- 24. Import Markets
- 25. India’s Import Trends: Top Markets 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000 900000 InUSD Top Importers 2012
- 26. India’s Import Trends: Top Growing Markets 137.91% 112.06% 108.06% 103.82% 91.07% 83.99% 82.73% 77.50% 58.38% 56.04% Top Growing Importers
- 27. India’s Import Trends: Top Growing Markets Rise in imports from OPEC countries
- 28. Global Markets
- 29. Quick Numbers • Production capacity: 288 million tons • Capacity utilization: 90% • Expected CAGR till 2016: 4% Source: Plastics Europe
- 30. Top World Exporters Saudi Arabia’s rise is notable Saudi Arabia 11% Belgium 10% Korea, Rep. 9% United States 8% European Union 7%Germany 7% Singapore 7% RoW 40% 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0% World Top Exporters in 2012 0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000 6000000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Top Exporters Saudi Arabia Belgium Korea, Rep. United States European Union Germany Singapore
- 31. Market Dynamics Top Exporters have comparative advantage 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 Korea, Rep. Singapore Belgium Saudi Arabia 3.17 3.19 4.37 5.72 RCA in 2012
- 32. Market Dynamics: Price Competitors • Gulf States want to become suppliers of end product • PP manufacturing capacities will more than double within the next five years. • Domestic demand within the Gulf states continues to remain low • Proximity to crude oil is an advantage • Competing in global markets with price
- 33. Market Dynamics: Developed World 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 Germany France USA 1 1.41 1 RCA in 2012 Their comparative advantage is less
- 34. Market Dynamics: Innovation Competitors • North America and Western Europe will see a demise of PP manufacturing plants • Market prices are higher as compared with China or Saudi Arabia • Innovation in products becoming core competency
- 35. Top World Importers China 21% Germany 7% Turkey 7% Italy 6% European Union 5% Belgium 5% France 4% Mexico 4% Others 49% World Top Importers in 2012 0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000 6000000 7000000 8000000 9000000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Top Importers China Germany Turkey Italy European Union Belgium France Mexico Fragmented market led by developing economies
- 36. Important Markets for India
- 37. Top Markets based on Growth Top markets: Growth in imports> India’s export growth
- 38. Key Focus Markets Peru Pakistan
- 39. India’s Export share in World Top Importers: Trade Intensity Index Indication of lack of competitiveness 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 China Germany Turkey Italy Belgium France Mexico 244.73 0.84 269.28 78.65 4.59 0 0.15
- 40. Key Focus Markets Peru Pakistan France Germany Mexico
- 41. Relative Comparative Advantage 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 Peru Pakistan Germany France Mexico Belgium China Turkey 0.07 0.01 1 1.41 0.14 4.37 0.07 0.11 RCA in 2012 Indication of lack of competitiveness
- 42. Key Focus Markets Peru Pakistan France China Turkey Germany Mexico India has trade investment agreement with EU Duty reduced to 3% compared with 6% for MFN
- 43. Countries with zero RCA Africa is the key
- 45. Market Diversification Strategy 0.0755 0.152 0.1167 0.1256 0.1795 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 HH Market Concentration Index Increasing market concentration: keep a check
- 46. Analysing Market Share and Price 13.4 10.4 9.3 8.3 7.57 4.2 3.82.6 2.5 2.3 2.3 26.4 Saudi Arabia Belgium Korea, Republic of United States of America Germany Singapore France Netherlands Thailand Hong Kong, China Taipei, Chinese India Rest of World 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Unit Price in USD per ton Low share in world exports though price competitive India needs to expand production
- 47. Export Strategies Expand Production Develop innovative products Compete with Gulf countries Compete with North American and European Countries
- 48. Expand Production Subsidy on Capital Investments • Discount on purchase of machinery • Overcomes high capital costs Trade Agreements • Seek FTA/PTA with the top countries
- 49. Developing Innovative Products Promote Joint Ventures • Facilitates technology transfer Incentivising Portfolio Diversification • Capital subsidy given for expanding product portfolio
Editor's Notes
- 52.36% of total trade during the time period happened during the last three years
- The production in India is expected to continuously rise. Due to increased demand of PP in the future years, companies like OPAL and BPCL have committed heavy investments in the PP production in India.Traditional players like RIL, HPCL, and IOCL have also planned to build new capital in an effort to enhance their capacities to meet the growing needs of PP in India.
- India is mulling a proposal to place new duties on plastic imports from Saudi Arabia and Oman, after its ministry of industry and commerce concluded that the low costs of feedstock in the Gulf gave its petrochemical producers an unfair cost advantage.
- BoliviaCambodiaCroatiaEl SalvadorIraqKazakhstanKyrgyz RepublicNamibiaNicaraguaSwazilandYugoslavia
- We are concentrating on africa
- Peru and pakistan need to be targettedGood news: we are growing exports in the major marketsOur export growth rate is greater than their import growth rate
- Mathematical Formula: TII is the ratio of two export shares. The numerator is the share of the destination of interest in the exports of the region under study. The denominator is the share of the destination of interest in the exports of the world as a whole.Definition: TII tells one whether or not a region exports more (as a percentage) to a given destination than the world does on average. It is interpreted in much the same way as an export share. It does not suffer from any ‘size’ bias, so we can compare the statistic across regions, and over time when exports are growing rapidly. Range of values: Takes a value between 0 and +∞. Values greater than 1 indicate an ‘intense’ trade relationship. Limitations: As with trade shares, high or low intensity indices and changes over time may reflect numerous factors other than trade policy.