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~How Fear Breeds~




        Suril Desai ©
        DYSoC- May 2008


                          1
How Opinions Form


  Trends Emerge



  Trends Analyzed



 Conclusions Drawn



  Opinions Formed
                     ©
                         2
2 Types of Innovation


Aha! Innovation©             Oh No! Innovation©
•   Curiosity                •   Anxiety
•   Exciting                 •   Stress
•   Philanthropic            •   Cost-sensitive
•   Unbound Imagination      •   Restricted Imagination
•   Idea based               •   Need based
•   Simplicity               •   Complicated
•   Voluntary                •   Compulsion
•   Challenge                •   Uncertainty Doubt
•   Hopeful                  •   Hopelessness
•   Driven by solutions      •   Driven by the problem

                                                          3
Balance Perspective




                      4
Fear is Powerful Tool

•   Arms Race during the Cold War- gave rise to a whole new breed of
    weapons and drove innovation to new heights

•   Y2K fear gave a booster shot to IT- drove the commercialization of
    internet and made it available to consumers. Technology- From Tactical to
    Practical

•   911 and the terror threat- the fear of terrorism resulted in further
    innovations in the security business, IT enabled technology. Increased
    defense spending and thus increased innovation- In 2005 the global
    defense expenditure was just 6% less than the Cold War peak, 1987-
    1988

•   Climate Change fear – is driving the demand for renewable energy,
    alternative lifestyle, replacement of highly polluting and outdated
    industrial establishments, and energy efficient products and services

                                                                             5
6
7
8
9
Consumer
           Fear       Producer




Threat            Opportunity
Paranoia          Grow
Contempt          Learn
Guilt             Go Forward
             ©                   10
Entrepreneurship
            of   a
     ih ood
Likel bble
                     Climate
     Bu
                     Change
                               Fear   Opportunity


  Outdated Industrial
  Establishments               Replacement
                                                      New
                       Jobs                         Markets,
                                                    Lifestyle
                                                    Changes
    Energy Efficiency          Enhancement
                                                    ©




                                                           11
Paradox of Fear




                  12
Comparisons
Internet Boom-Dotcom Bust Y2K            Energy Solution- Climate Change
•   Completely driven by technology      •   Based on improvement of
    and science, minimal political           technology and energy efficiency,
    influence                                with a strong political presence
•   Divided by intellectual property,    •   Divided by perspective- Global
    free vs. paid                            Warming vs. Global Cooling
•   Have fun and enjoy                   •   Do or die situation
•   Young, fast paced, non               •   Major promoters governments
    hierarchical                             and environmental groups, slow
•   Quick Turnover, quick exits, quick       moving and bureaucratic
    profits                              •   Slow turnover, longer
•   Less capital investment, startup         commitment
    friendly                             •   Large capital pool required,
•   Failure is claim to fame             •   Failure is shame

                                                                   ©
                                                                            13
14
Problem of Institutionalizing Fear
•   Rebellion develops
•   Mistrust and Propaganda
•   Conspiracy Theories
•   Guilt contempt and hate
•   Logic and rationality are lost




                                         15
Psychological Impact
• CCAD-Climate Change Anxiety Disorder

• TEOTWAWKI -The End Of The World As We
  Know It syndrome

• People lashing out those who use SUV’s and
  imposing “Ecofriendly” lifestyle on others


                                               16
17

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How fear breeds Innovation, Improves Economy, Causes Bubbles & Drives the Market

  • 1. ~How Fear Breeds~ Suril Desai © DYSoC- May 2008 1
  • 2. How Opinions Form Trends Emerge Trends Analyzed Conclusions Drawn Opinions Formed © 2
  • 3. 2 Types of Innovation Aha! Innovation© Oh No! Innovation© • Curiosity • Anxiety • Exciting • Stress • Philanthropic • Cost-sensitive • Unbound Imagination • Restricted Imagination • Idea based • Need based • Simplicity • Complicated • Voluntary • Compulsion • Challenge • Uncertainty Doubt • Hopeful • Hopelessness • Driven by solutions • Driven by the problem 3
  • 5. Fear is Powerful Tool • Arms Race during the Cold War- gave rise to a whole new breed of weapons and drove innovation to new heights • Y2K fear gave a booster shot to IT- drove the commercialization of internet and made it available to consumers. Technology- From Tactical to Practical • 911 and the terror threat- the fear of terrorism resulted in further innovations in the security business, IT enabled technology. Increased defense spending and thus increased innovation- In 2005 the global defense expenditure was just 6% less than the Cold War peak, 1987- 1988 • Climate Change fear – is driving the demand for renewable energy, alternative lifestyle, replacement of highly polluting and outdated industrial establishments, and energy efficient products and services 5
  • 6. 6
  • 7. 7
  • 8. 8
  • 9. 9
  • 10. Consumer Fear Producer Threat Opportunity Paranoia Grow Contempt Learn Guilt Go Forward © 10
  • 11. Entrepreneurship of a ih ood Likel bble Climate Bu Change Fear Opportunity Outdated Industrial Establishments Replacement New Jobs Markets, Lifestyle Changes Energy Efficiency Enhancement © 11
  • 13. Comparisons Internet Boom-Dotcom Bust Y2K Energy Solution- Climate Change • Completely driven by technology • Based on improvement of and science, minimal political technology and energy efficiency, influence with a strong political presence • Divided by intellectual property, • Divided by perspective- Global free vs. paid Warming vs. Global Cooling • Have fun and enjoy • Do or die situation • Young, fast paced, non • Major promoters governments hierarchical and environmental groups, slow • Quick Turnover, quick exits, quick moving and bureaucratic profits • Slow turnover, longer • Less capital investment, startup commitment friendly • Large capital pool required, • Failure is claim to fame • Failure is shame © 13
  • 14. 14
  • 15. Problem of Institutionalizing Fear • Rebellion develops • Mistrust and Propaganda • Conspiracy Theories • Guilt contempt and hate • Logic and rationality are lost 15
  • 16. Psychological Impact • CCAD-Climate Change Anxiety Disorder • TEOTWAWKI -The End Of The World As We Know It syndrome • People lashing out those who use SUV’s and imposing “Ecofriendly” lifestyle on others 16
  • 17. 17