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ORI BAM Warwick Scenarios 2018 Crowdsourcing Harman's Fan

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Describing a distributed, asynchronous method for identifying multiple narrative paths to alternative futures, using the Futurescaper software platform as a way to generate Harman's Fan scenario explorations.

Published in: Leadership & Management
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ORI BAM Warwick Scenarios 2018 Crowdsourcing Harman's Fan

  1. 1. Crowdsourcing Harman’s Fan A distributed, asynchronous method for identifying multiple narrative paths to alternative futures Dr Wendy L Schultz 10 December 2018
  2. 2. SCENARIO BUILDING Narratives Causal Layered Analysis Scenario Archetypes Organisational Story-telling Axes Deductive Scenarios: Uncertainties as Logics, Change-Theory-Driven Tables Scenario Parameter Matrix FAR Futures Table Morphological Analysis Manoa Scenarios Systems-based Scenarios Harman Fan Connectors
  3. 3. UNCERTAINTIES
  4. 4. CHAOS / ATTRACTORS
  5. 5. HARMAN FAN, 1 In An Incomplete Guide to the Future (Norton Publishers, 1979), Willis Harman describes an inventive approach to extrapolating forward into the future: creating a fan of potential mini-scenarios - 'future states of the system' - dispersing out from the current state of play. Multiple narratives can be created by choosing different paths across potential future states as stepping stones into alternative futures.
  6. 6. HARMAN FAN, 2 THREE STEPS: 1. IDENTIFY 22 different future possible states of the system, expressed as short, vivid titles or headlines (see Wack on simplicity). May be brainstormed in a workshop, or result of expert research. 2. ORGANIZE these future states in a fan model based on assumptions whether any given state may occur sooner or later in the chronology than the others. 3. CONNECT possible sequences through time of different states. The evolution from one state into the next becomes a future scenario; multiple sequences may be specified, creating multiple alternative futures.
  7. 7. Sooner Later SoonerLater Business Satellite Continuous Education Exchange Bookless Access without exam No University Multi-cultural Experience Degrees Student led Corporate Owned Split Teaching/Research Multi mode No calendar No Bowl All have access Mentor Star Prof Intel Inside Special Interest Group Holodeck Grasshopper other This Harman Fan contains possible future states of universities. They have been organized in chronological order from sooner to later in the evolution process. By clicking on each of the states, a description can be obtained. HARMAN FAN, 3 FUTURES OF THE UNIVERSITY NOW
  8. 8. HARMAN FAN, 4 Sooner LaterSoonerLater Satellite Bookless All have access No calendar Scenario: The tailor-made on-line university This scenario assumes that we move from our current university towards more distant learning – a ‘satellite university’ that slowly replaces all hardcopy learning. Working with digital media makes it easier to let students study at their own pace, leading to a ‘no-calendar’ university. Since universities will become widely accessible with marginal extra costs and higher marginal outputs per dollar invested, the government will finally provide access to all prospective students with repayable grants, which will be deducted from their income over the professional life of the graduates. NOW
  9. 9. HARMAN FAN, 5 FUTURES OF HONG KONG NOW 2028 2038 2048 2058 2068 99% ARE VEGAN RISING GLOBAL TEMPERATURE LEADS TO LIMIT ON USE OF A/C 100% RECYCLE – NO TRASH WATER RATIONS RISE OF SMALLER VIRTUAL STATES X-VICTORIA HARBOR IS A NARROW CREEK POPULATION HUGE + INCREASING ALL BUILDINGS SELF-SUFFICIENT IN SOLAR POWER 3 OFFICIAL LANGUAGES COMPULSORY ID IMPLANTS ELECTRIC VEHICLES ONLY END OF SAR; OPEN BORDER WITH CHINA INDOOR PARKS PEDESTRIAN-ONLY ZONES CASH-FREE SOCIETY FEMALE- DOMINATED SOCIETY EXPAND LAND – ARTIFICAL ISLANDS NO MORE FREEDOM OF SPEECH FOOD + WATER WARS DIVIDE POPULATION OVER 1 MN RESIDENTS LIVING UNDERGROUND NO ENGLISH STREETNAMES DIGITAL CURFEWS – WALKING & TEXTING IS BANNED
  10. 10. HARMAN FAN, 6 • Best used after some review of emerging changes • Helps people digest / process the changes they’ve been presented • ‘Mini-scenarios' format challenging in way that spurs creativity • ‘Mini-scenarios' let people express specific impacts on issue • Encourages discussing assumptions and biases • Emphasises alternativity expanding over time and importance of not rejecting the ridiculous too soon • Multiple time horizons accommodate different rates of maturity of key trends and emerging changes • ‘Hopscotch' storyline design choices generate multiple narratives of emergence PLUS scope to design the intervention to prevent the unwanted/dystopian futures
  11. 11. FUTURESCAPER, 1 Dozens (or thousands) of participants articulate the changes that they think are most important, and their likely causes and effects. CHANGE, IMPACTS – INTERCONNECTIONS
  12. 12. FUTURESCAPER, 2
  13. 13. FUTURESCAPER, 3 • Short, fast, accessible ‘plain language’ interface for crowdsourcing change data • Simple questions build futures wheels + interconnections • Common words link to create emergent patterns and narrative cascades
  14. 14. FUTURESCAPER, 4
  15. 15. FUTURESCAPER, 5 SSHRC EMERGING GLOBAL CHALLENGE S
  16. 16. FUTURESCAPER, 6 SSHRC EMERGING GLOBAL CHALLENGES PRIORITISED
  17. 17. FUTURESCAPER, 7
  18. 18. FUTURESCAPER, 8
  19. 19. FUTURESCAPER, 9
  20. 20. NEXT STEPS • Ability to crowdsource Harman’s Fan serendipitous • Making use of the possibility: • Fastest / cheapest: Crowdsource the impact cascades, let the research team write up variant narratives • Faster / workshop boost: Crowdsource the impact cascades prior to a workshop, let participants explore variant narratives and express them • Fast / design + experiential futures: Crowdsource the impact cascades, design artifacts for each node, let participants create the future by walking into it.
  21. 21. any questions? wendy@infinitefutures.com wendyinfutures@gmail.com

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