This undergraduate honors thesis examines the effect of media coverage on public approval of the Iraq War. It analyzes media coverage from ABC, CBS, and NBC in April 2004 and May 2007, focusing on mentions of US fatalities and elite disagreement with the war. Public opinion polls from these times are also examined. The author finds that as media mentions of fatalities increased, public approval of how the war was going and of Bush's handling of the war decreased. However, coverage of elite disagreement did not significantly change and seemed to have less influence on public opinion. The media provided information to the public but all major networks portrayed events similarly, without mischaracterization.

1. FATALITY COVERAGE AND
ELITE CUES
The Media’s Affect on Iraq War Approval
Nathaniel Gaynor
Undergraduate HonorsThesis

2. THE RESEARCH QUESTION
• During times of crisis, the public
overwhelmingly turns to the
media for information
(Hetherington, 1996).
• The media plays a hugely
important role in the lives of
the American public.
• “To what extent did watching
media coverage of the Iraq War
affect public approval of the
war?

3. EXISTING SCHOOLS OFTHOUGHT ON
THE EFFECTS OF PUBLIC APPROVAL OF
WAR
• Event-ResponseTheory: The public reacts positively to shocking developments that are
positive and negatively to shocking developments that are negative
• Casualties Hypothesis:As casualties increase, support for the war decreases
• Elite CueTheory: The public takes their cues from their partisan elites and follow them
regardless of outcomes
• Going into this research, I was unsure of which of these two theories would be
supported.
• Each had similar amounts of research supporting them.

4. THE HYPOTHESES
• Hypothesis 1: As media coverage of fatalities
grows, public approval of the Iraq War will
decrease.
• Hypothesis 2: As media coverage of elite
disagreement grows, public approval of the
Iraq War will decrease.

5. CASE SELECTION
• April 2004: 131 American fatalities
• Pres. George W. Bush’s approval
rating is higher than in 2007.
• Controls: March 2004 and May
2004
• May 2007: 123 American fatalities
• War wanes on and fatalities mount.
• Controls:April 2007 and June 2007
• Networks:ABC, CBS, NBC

6. THEVARIABLES
• Dependent: Public Opinion of the Iraq War
• “How would you say things are going for the U.S. in Iraq?”
and
• “Do you approve of the way President George W. Bush is
handling the Iraq War?”
• Data gathered from Roper Center
• Independent: Media coverage of the Iraq War
• Fatalities - Key words:“killed”,“murdered”,“beheaded”,
“death toll”,“dead”,“casualties”,“fatalities”
• Elite Disagreement - Key phrases:“the troops should come
home”,“the war has been mishandled”,“the president has
made an error going to war”,“the War in Iraq was a
mistake”,“American lives have been wasted in Iraq”,
“President Bush’s foreign policy is terrible”,“public support
for the war has decreased”, and “critics of the president/
the war say…”
• Score of “1” to each use of the word.

7. METHODOLOGY
• IndependentVariable:
• Get a total for each
month, and then an
average which is the
score.
• Transcripts from Lexis
Nexis Academic
Network TV ABC Averages
Number of Stories Fatalities Disagreement
March 2004 8.19 4.32 2.64
April 2004 10.33 10.6 3.43
May 2004 9.48 4.77 2.83
April 2007 6.7 2.93 2.83
May 2007 7.48 3.68 2.45
June 2007 5.50 2.07 1.3
Fatalities and Disagreement ABC News April 2004
Score
0
7.5
15
22.5
30
Date
April1,2004
April3,2004
April5,2004
April7,2004
April9,2004
April11,2004
April13,2004
April15,2004
April17,2004
April19,2004
April21,2004
April23,2004
April25,2004
April27,2004
April29,2004
Fatalities Disagreement

8. DAY BY DAY SCORES
CBS News April 2004
Fatality/DisagreementScore
0
4.5
9
13.5
18
Date of Coverage
April1,2004
April3,2004
April5,2004
April7,2004
April9,2004
April11,2004
April13,2004
April15,2004
April17,2004
April19,2004
April21,2004
April23,2004
April25,2004
April27,2004
April29,2004
Fatalities Disagreement
NBC News April 2004
Fatality/DisagreementScore
0
4
8
12
16
Date of Coverage
April1,2004
April3,2004
April5,2004
April7,2004
April9,2004
April11,2004
April13,2004
April15,2004
April17,2004
April19,2004
April21,2004
April23,2004
April25,2004
April27,2004
April29,2004
Fatalities Disagreement
ABC News April 2004
Fatality/DisagreementScore
0
7.5
15
22.5
30
Date of Coverage
April1,2004
April3,2004
April5,2004
April7,2004
April9,2004
April11,2004
April13,2004
April15,2004
April17,2004
April19,2004
April21,2004
April23,2004
April25,2004
April27,2004
April29,2004
Fatalities Disagreement

9. FATALITY SCORES &
DISAGREEMENT SCORES
Fatality Scores for the Broadcast Networks 2004 and 2007
FatalityScore
0
2.75
5.5
8.25
11
Month of Coverage
M
arch
2004
April2004
M
ay
2004
April2007
M
ay
2007
June
2007
ABC NBC CBS
Disagreement Scores for the Broadcast Networks 2004 and 2007
DisagreementScore
0
1
2
3
4
Month of Coverage
M
arch
2004
April2004
M
ay
2004
April2007
M
ay
2007
June
2007
ABC NBC CBS

10. PUBLIC OPINION
“How Would You Say Things are Going for the
U.S. in Iraq?” from Gallup Poll 2004
Percentage
25
33.75
42.5
51.25
60
Poll Release Date
March 18 April 9 May 6 May 25 June 7 July 12
55
35
39
42
40 40
Well
“How Would You Say Things are Going for the U.S.
in Iraq?” from CBS News/New York Times Poll 2007
Percentage
15
21.25
27.5
33.75
40
Poll Release Date
March 12 April 11 April 13 May 24 June 29 July 18
29
33
31
22 22
25
Well
“Do You Approve of the Way Bush is Handling the
Iraq War” from Gallup/USA Today Poll 2007
Percentage
20
25
30
35
40
Poll Release Date
February 6 March 27 May 8 August 21
26
28
30
27
Approve
“Do You Approve of the Way Bush is Handling
the Iraq War” from Gallup/USA Today Poll 2004
(%)
Percentage
25
33.75
42.5
51.25
60
Poll Release Date
March 30 April 20 May 11 June 7
51
48
41 41
Approve
CONTROLS
• AGE
• EDUCATION
• GENDER
• PARTY ID
• REGION
• IDEOLOGY

11. ANALYSIS
Network TV Coverage (Averages)
Fatality/DisagreementScore
0
2.25
4.5
6.75
9
Month of Coverage
M
arch
2004
April2004
M
ay
2004
April2007
M
ay
2007
June
2007
2.26
2.62 2.47 2.58
1.89
1.28
3.94
8.66
4.84
3.16
3.81
2.63
Fatalities Disagreement
“How Would You Say Things are Going for the U.S. in Iraq?” 2004 & 2007
Percentage
15
32.5
50
67.5
85
Poll Release Date
March 18, 2004 May 6, 2004 June 7, 2004 April 11, 2007 May 24, 2007 July 18, 2007
43
64 62
57
60 59
69
65 66
76 77
74
55
35
39
42 40 40
29
33 31
22 22
25
Well Badly
“Do You Approve of the Way Bush is Handling the Iraq War” 2004 and 2007
Percentage
20
36.25
52.5
68.75
85
Poll Release Date
March 30, 2004 May 11, 2004 March 27, 2007 August 21, 2007
47 49
58 57
72
69 67
70
51
48
41 41
26 28 30
27
Approve Disapprove

12. CONCLUSIONS
• Public in touch with events
happening in Iraq.
• Cost-benefit analysis
• Disagreement score rarely wavers
throughout all data collection.
• Elite cues may have effects
elsewhere.
• Media feeds public information, but
all information is similar - No
network is grossly mischaracterizing
events.

13. Thesis Chair: Prof. Corwin Smidt
Questions?