1. 1
MEDIA TENOR INTERNATIONAL
Markus Rettich
m.rettich@mediatenor.com
+49 – 2228 - 91345 - 11
Presidential Campaign Watch:
McCain May Face Problems On Iraq Again
May 30th, 2008
Basis of analysis:
a total of 75,754 statements on U.S. presidential candidates
on ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX evening news programs, Newsweek and Time, January to May 2008;
a total of 18,930 news reports on ABC, CBS and NBC evening news programs July 2007 to May 2008;
a total of 66,212 statements on U.S. protagonists in 8 international TV evening news programs
2. 2
5/1
5/2
5/3
5/4
5/5
5/6
5/7
5/8
5/9
5/10
5/11*
5/12
5/13
5/14
5/15
5/16
5/17
5/18
5/19
5/20
5/21
5/22
5/23
5/24
5/25
5/26
5/27
5/28
5/29
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
Media trend
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
Gallup poll
TV Tone (% positive - % negative) poll: Clinton leads poll: Obama leads
(Poll: Gallup Poll daily tracking, Five day rolling average. n = approx. 4,400 registers voters nationwide. MoE ± 2 )
(Media: n = )
Green: Obama ahead / McCain behind
Red: Obama behind / McCain ahead
Day by day analysis shows that public opinion on Obama and McCain is still volatile
while a clear and continuous media trend could help to win support. At the end of this
week Obama had a narrow lead both on TV and in the polls.
ABC, NBC and CBS candidate coverage, 5/1 - 5/29/2008: tone of coverage by days
Basis: all statements by or on Obama and McCain on ABC, CBS and NBC evening news programs 5/1 – 5/29/2008 (* very low database)
Narrow lead for Obama on TV and in the polls
4. 4
Newsw
Time
NBC
ABC
CBS
Fox
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Newsweek
Time Magazine
NBC news
ABC news
CBS news
Fox (Hume)
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
negative positive
(n = 236 / 213 / 321 / 258 / 196 / 918) (n = 110 / 180 / 376 / 244 / 179 / 677)
missing to 100%: no clear rating
Tone of Obama coverage Tone of McCain coverage
Detailed analysis of this week’s and last week’s coverage shows that McCain's
coverage was almost neutral on TV. Obama provoked more evaluative statements, but
there was no general trend towards one of the two candidates.
Candidate coverage, 5/19 – 5/29/2008: tone of Obama and McCain coverage by media outlets
Basis: all statements by or on Obama and McCain in Newsweek, Time, ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox evening news programs 5/5 – 5/29/2008
No general media trend towards Obama or McCain
5. 5
General appearance
Obama's family
Nomination
Foreign policy*
Campaigning
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
Share of each issue
General appearance
Obama's family
Nomination
Foreign policy*
Campaigning
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Top 5 topics: share of coverage, 5/26- 5/29/2008 Tone of coverage, 5/26- 5/29/2008
negative positive
100%: all statements by or on Obama missing to 100%: no clear rating
5.8%
no positive statements(n=88)
(n=77)
(n=60)
(n=58)
(n=49)
* other than Iraq
So far the McCain campaign has successfully raised questions concerning Barack
Obama’s foreign policy platform. This issue was one of the Illinois Senator’s top five
topics this week, and the tone was negative.
Basis: a total of 586 statements by or on Obama in Newsweek, Time, ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX evening news programs 5/12– 5/15/2008
Newsweek, Time, ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox News coverage, 5/26 - 5/29/2008: Obama’s top 5 topics
Obama’s foreign policy platform questioned
6. 6
2 3 4 5
2008
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
negative reports no clear rating positive reports
100%: all reports on U.S. protagonists in Iraq in each month
(n = 45 / 95 / 63 / 42)
23.8%
16.7%
The U.S. in Iraq: Balanced tone in May so far…
Before McClellan’s attacks, the situation of the U.S. in Iraq was not only rarely
mentioned but almost balanced in tone. Negative stories were down, positive stories
were up – from a PR point of view a good time to attract media attention.
Newsweek, Time, ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox News Iraq coverage, 2/1/ - 5/29/2008: Iraq – tone of coverage
Basis: a total of 245 stories on U.S. protagonists in Iraq in Newsweek, Time, ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox evening news programs 2/1- 5/29/2008
7. 7
3/3-3/9
3/10-3/16
3/17-3/23
3/24-3/30
3/31-4/6
4/7-4/13
4/14-4/20
4/21-4/27
4/28-5/4
5/5-5/11
5/12-5/18
5/19-5/25
5/26-5/29/08
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
Share of Iraq stories
Share of reports on Iraq
100%: all reports in Newsweek, Time, ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox in each month
(n = 624 / 662 / 650 / 645 / 579 / 639 / 630 / 679 / 652 / 745 / 676 / 661 / 512)
…but this might change due to McClellan
Following the March anniversary of the conflict and the Petraeus hearings in early April,
the Iraq issue disappeared from the media agenda. Scott McClellan’s book brought the
war issue back into the news. This might be a problem for McCain.
Newsweek, Time, ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox News Iraq coverage, 3/3 - 5/29/2008: Iraq – media awareness
Basis: a total of 8,354 stories in Newsweek, Time, ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox evening news programs 3/3 – 5/29/2008
8. 8
March April May
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
March April May
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
negative positive
(n = 107 / 104 / 65) (n = 125 / 95 / 83)
missing to 100%: no clear rating
Statements by or on Obama by months Statements by or on McCain by months
So far, the tone of coverage has turned out to be less negative when McCain’s Iraq
platform was mentioned. In May the share of negative statements was even slightly lower
than in Obama's coverage. However, this may change when the topic is revisited.
Newsweek, Time, ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox News candidate coverage, 3/1 – 5/29/2008: Iraq policy
Basis: all statements on Iraq policy in Time, Newsweek, ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX evening news programs 3/1– 5/29/2008
McCain better rated than Obama on Iraq issues
9. 9
Foreign policy
War/Military
General appearance
Iraq
Campaigning
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
Share of each issue
Foreign policy (other)
War/Military
General appearance
Iraq
Campaigning
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
Top 5 topics: share of coverage, 5/26- 5/29/2008 Tone of coverage, 5/26- 5/29/2008
negative positive
100%: all statements by or on McCain missing to 100%: no clear rating
no positive statements
9% no positive statements
no positive statements
(n=83)
(n=80)
(n=66)
(n=53)
(n=41)
This week the share of statements mentioning McCain’s Iraq platform is 9% - making
the issue one of his top 5 topics. From Monday to Thursday the tone of coverage was
moderately negative, posing no major problem for McCain – so far.
Basis: a total of 586 statements by or on McCain in Newsweek, Time, ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX evening news programs 5/12– 5/15/2008
Newsweek, Time, ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox News coverage, 5/26 - 5/29/2008: McCain’s top 5 topics
No major problem for McCain – so far
10. 10
3/31-4/6
4/7-4/13
4/14-4/20
4/21-4/27
4/28-5/4
5/5-5/11
5/12-5/18
5/19-5/25
5/26-5/29/08
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
Newsw
Time
NBC
ABC
CBS
Fox
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
negative positive
(n = 113 / 146 / 260 / 247 / 116 / 799)
*
(n = 1,152 / 928 / 758 / 1,260 / 924 / 1,428 / 1087 / 914 / 396)
missing to 100%: no clear rating
Tone of network news coverage
Compared to both Obama and McCain (as seen above), Clinton was rated better than
each of the two men – but at a low level of awareness. This can be called farewell
coverage: friendly, but not decisive.
Newsweek, Time, ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox News coverage, 3/31 – 5/29/2008: tone of Clinton coverage
Basis: all statements by or on Clinton in Newsweek, Time, ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox evening news programs 3/31 – 5/29/2008
A Farewell to Clinton: friendly, but not decisive
11. 11
3/3-3/9
3/10-3/16
3/17-3/23
3/24-3/30
3/31-4/6
4/7-4/13
4/14-4/20
4/21-4/27
4/28-5/4
5/5-5/11
5/12-5/18
5/19-5/25
5/26-5/29/08
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Share of stories with at least one statement by or on the candidates
Clinton Obama McCain
(n = 755 / 663 / 670 / 624 / 662 / 650 / 645 / 579 / 639 / 630 / 679 / 651 / 745 / 501)
100%: all reports in Newsweek, Time, ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox, missing to 100%: no candidate mentioned
Clinton side-lined in coverage
With Obama clearly regarded as the winner of the Democratic race, media interest in
Clinton sharply decreased this week. Also this week, coverage was again clearly
focused on Obama; the share of McCain stories fell as well.
Newsweek, Time, ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox News coverage, 3/3 - 5/29/2008: volume of coverage
Basis: a total of 8,354 stories in Newsweek, Time, ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox evening news programs 3/3 – 5/29/2008
12. 12
7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5
2007 2008
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16% 0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
-60%
-70%
-80%
TV news: share trend
7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5
2007 2008
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
negative reports no clear rating positive reports
share of reports about the economy
on ABC, NBC and CBS news
Evaluation of
the economic
development
TV News: Evaluation of the economic development
U.S. economy: slightly improved but still negative
The monthly balance on how the state of the U.S. economy is portrayed in network
coverage has not changed this week: Media awareness is still high but slightly
decreasing: 3 out of 5 stories are negative in tone.
ABC, NBC and CBS coverage of selected topics: Economy, 7/1/2007 – 5/29/2008
Basis: a total of 18,930 stories on ABC, CBS and NBC evening news programs 7/1/2007 – 5/29/2008
13. 13
missing to 100%: no clear rating / * individual newscasts missing
Bush
McCain
Obama
Clinton
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
negative positive
missing to 100%: no clear rating / * individual newscasts missing
(n=593)
(n=208)
(n=142)
(n=101)
Tone of Iraq coverage
34.5%
Bush
McCain
Obama
Clinton
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
(n=2,391)
(n=236)
(n=191)
(n=196)
other foreign policy issues
16.7%
In international TV coverage John McCain had a clear advantage when foreign policy
issues were covered so far in 2008. When non-Iraq foreign policy issues were
mentioned, one out of six statements were positive.
Clear advantage for McCain in international news
Basis: a total of 66,212 statements by or on U.S. protagonists on 8 International news programs from 1/1 – 5/29/2008
International TV coverage of U.S. foreign policy, 1/1 – 5/29/2008*: tone of coverage
15. 15
Media Set U.S.:
• Newsweek
• Time Magazine
• ABC World News
• CBS Evening News
• NBC Nightly News
• Fox News: Special Report with Brit Hume
Media Set International:
• Al Jazeera News
• BBC 1 and 2 ITV evening news (UK)
• ARD and ZDF late news (Germany)
• CNN International (since January 2008)
• BBC World (since January 2008)
16. 16
Thematic connection: Political platform
(111236)
Statement 1 - Subject: Clinton (226)
Explicit Rating: Neutral (0)
Implicit Rating: Negative (5)
Source of opinion: US Pres. Candidate
(D) (555525); Obama (201547)
Statement 2 - Subject: Obama (2547)
Explicit Rating: Neutral (0)
Implicit Rating: Neutral (0)
Source of opinion: US Pres. Candidate
(D) (555525); Obama (201547)
Thematic connection: Campaigning in
general (113251)
Statement 3 - Subject: Obama (2547)
Explicit Rating: Neutral (0)
Implicit Rating: Negative (5)
Source of opinion: US Pres. Candidate
(D) (555525); Clinton (200307)
Statement 4 - Subject: Clinton (226)
Explicit Rating: Neutral (0)
Implicit Rating: Neutral (0)
Source of opinion: US Pres. Candidate
(D) (555525); Clinton (200307)
Thematic connection: Campaigning in
general (113251)
Statement 5 - Subject 1: Clinton (226)
Explicit Rating: Positive (1)
Implicit Rating: Positive (1)
Source of opinion: Anonymous source (7)
Statement 6 - Subject: Clinton (226)
Explicit Rating: Neutral (0)
Implicit Rating: Positive (1)
Source of opinion: US Pres. Candidate
(D) (555525); Clinton (200307)
Statement 7 - Subject: Obama (2547)
Explicit Rating: Negative (5)
Implicit Rating: Negative (5)
Source of opinion: US Pres. Candidate
(D) (555525); Clinton (200307)
Thematic connection: Foreign policy
in general (201000)
Statement 8 – Subject: Obama (226)
Explicit Rating: Neutral (0)
Implicit Rating: Negative (5)
Source of opinion: US Pres. Candidate
(D) (555525); Clinton (200307)
Statement 9 - Subject: Clinton (226)
Explicit Rating: Neutral (0)
Implicit Rating: Neutral (0)
Source of opinion: US Pres. Candidate
(D) (555525); Clinton (200307)
Source: Katharine Q. Seele, “Obama Says Clinton Is ‘Bush-Cheney Lite,’” The New York Times, July 27, 2007
Methodology of media content analysis: Explicit vs. implicit valuation/rating, example
"Senator Barack Obama
continued to press his case
against Senator Hillary Rodham
Clinton yesterday, calling her
“Bush-Cheney lite,” which
prompted her to fire back — on
camera — that the escalating
dispute with Mr. Obama was
“getting kind of silly.”
Pundits generally perceived
Mrs. Clinton as winning the
debate point for highlighting her
experience and at the same time
suggesting that Mr. Obama was
inexperienced. She kept the
issue alive the next day by
telling The Quad-City Times in
Iowa that Mr. Obama’s
(statement about foreign policy)
was “irresponsible and frankly
naïve.”
17. 17
Each subject and thematic connection constitutes one statement. All ratings describe the subject. Therefore:
Statement 1 - Clinton is the first subject. She is involved in the thematic aspect “political platform.” The source of opinion is Obama,
because the journalist is quoting Obama’s views on Clinton’s political platform. The statement is not explicitly negative; Obama says
that Clinton is “Bush-Cheney lite,” but he does not explicitly characterize this fact with positive or negative adjectives. However, since
this is a comparison to candidates from an opposing political party, the implicit valuation is negative.
Statement 2 – Obama is the other subject. He is involved in this thematic connection “political platform.” Since he does not say
anything positive or negative about his own platform, there is no rating on him as a subject; explicit and implicit ratings are neutral.
Statement 3 – The next thematic aspect is the “escalating dispute,” which would be classified as “campaigning in general.” This aspect
is again connected to the subjects Clinton and Obama, but this time Clinton is the source of opinion. Her explicit rating on Obama as a
subject is neutral; she calls the debate (but not him) “silly.” However her implicit rating is negative, because her comment is intended
to imply that it is Obama’s involvement in the debate that is “silly.”
Statement 4 – Clinton offers no opinion on herself as a subject with regard to the “escalating dispute” aspect. Explicit and implicit
ratings are both neutral.
Statement 5 – The next thematic aspect also relates to campaigning. “Pundits,” who say that Clinton is “winning the debate,” provide
the source of opinion. The explicit rating on Clinton as a subject is positive; “winning” is an inherently positive word. Implicit rating is
also positive. Since the “pundits” are not identified, the source of opinion is anonymous.
Statement 6 – The pundits also say that Clinton highlighted her experience. Clinton is thus the subject and the source of opinion. The
word “experience” is not overtly positive, so the explicit rating would be neutral. But in the context of politics, “experience” is generally
considered to be a good thing; implicit rating would be positive.
Statement 7 –Clinton also suggested that Obama was “inexperienced.” She is the source of opinion. Obama is the subject.
“Inexperienced” is an explicitly neutral but implicitly negative rating of Obama in a political context.
Statement 8 – Clinton says that Obama’s statement about foreign policy was “irresponsible” and “naïve.” This is an explicitly and
implicitly negative rating of Obama as a subject. Clinton provides the source of opinion.
Statement 9 – Clinton criticizing Obama’s statement about foreign policy must also be coded with Clinton as the subject and source of
opinion. Since she does not say anything positive or negative about her own foreign policy statements, the rating on her is neutral.
Methodology of media content analysis: Explicit vs. implicit valuation/rating, explanation
18. 18
For more information:
click on book
Media Set:
•ABC World News
•CBS Evening News
•NBC Nightly News
• Fox News: Special Report with Brit Hume
How the Media "Stole" the
US Presidential Election 2000
by Danny Schechter / Roland Schatz
