This document summarizes a study that tested the "liberation hypothesis" in criminal sentencing decisions. The hypothesis predicts that when evidence is ambiguous, extra-legal factors like race are more likely to influence judgments. The study used data on over 17,000 criminal cases in South Carolina. It found that black offenders had a higher likelihood of being incarcerated and receiving longer sentences for minor crimes compared to whites, supporting the hypothesis that bias occurs when public scrutiny is lowest.

1. Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking:
A Test of the `Liberation Hypothesis'
Rhys Hester
Post-Doctoral Research Fellow
Robina Institute of Criminal Law and Criminal Justice
University of Minnesota Law School
Todd K. Hartman
Lecturer in Quantitative Methods
Sheeld Methods Institute
t.k.hartman@sheeld.ac.uk
http://tkhartman.staff.shef.ac.uk/
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking

2. Brief Bio: My Research Interests
Political Psychology / Behaviour (Individual-level)
1 Intergroup Relations and Identity
Prejudice / Inequality
(e.g., Racial, Ethnic, Partisan, Economic, and Religious
Groups)
2 Attitudes and Persuasion
Framing, Campaigns, Information-Processing, and Analogies
Quantitative Research Methods
Survey Research
Experimental Design and Analysis
Structural Equation Modeling
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking

3. Global Incarceration Rates
Source: International Centre for Prison Studies

4. U.S. Outpaces World in Prison Population

5. U.S. Outpaces World in Prison Population

6. Incarcerated Population Increases Over Time

7. Incarceration Rate Increases Over Time

8. Justice Blind?

9. Minorities Disproportionately Imprisoned

10. Research Question
Given that racial disparities exist in the U.S. justice system,
when are they most likely to occur?
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking

11. Research Question
Given that racial disparities exist in the U.S. justice system,
when are they most likely to occur?
Criminal Sentencing Decisions
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking

12. Theory
`Liberation Hypothesis' [Kalven Zeisel (1966)]
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking

13. Theory
`Liberation Hypothesis' [Kalven Zeisel (1966)]
Clear evidence; favours one side
Jurors constrained; decisionmaking on relevant case facts
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking

14. Theory
`Liberation Hypothesis' [Kalven Zeisel (1966)]
Clear evidence; favours one side
Jurors constrained; decisionmaking on relevant case facts
Ambiguous evidence; no easy favourite
Jurors 'liberated' to consider extra-legal factors
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking

15. Hypothesis
Adapted to Criminal Sentencing Decisions (i.e., Judges)
When Is Public Scrutiny Lowest?
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking

16. Hypothesis
Adapted to Criminal Sentencing Decisions (i.e., Judges)
When Is Public Scrutiny Lowest?
Severity of Crime: Minor vs. Major Crimes
[Spohn Cederblom (1991); Spohn DeLone (2000)]
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking

17. Hypothesis
Adapted to Criminal Sentencing Decisions (i.e., Judges)
When Is Public Scrutiny Lowest?
Severity of Crime: Minor vs. Major Crimes
[Spohn Cederblom (1991); Spohn DeLone (2000)]
Severity of Crime AND Oender
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking

18. Hypothesis
Adapted to Criminal Sentencing Decisions (i.e., Judges)
When Is Public Scrutiny Lowest?
Severity of Crime: Minor vs. Major Crimes
[Spohn Cederblom (1991); Spohn DeLone (2000)]
Severity of Crime AND Oender
For minor oenses, Blacks more likely to be sentenced to
longer prison terms than whites.
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking

19. Hypothesis
Adapted to Criminal Sentencing Decisions (i.e., Judges)
When Is Public Scrutiny Lowest?
Severity of Crime: Minor vs. Major Crimes
[Spohn Cederblom (1991); Spohn DeLone (2000)]
Severity of Crime AND Oender
For minor oenses, Blacks more likely to be sentenced to
longer prison terms than whites.
Blacks with limited criminal history more likely to be
incarcerated than whites.
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking

20. What Evidence? Testing the Liberation Hypothesis
N = 17,643 Cases
South Carolina Circuit Courts
All Criminal Cases for FY 2001
Non-guidelines State
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking

21. Pro

22. le: South Carolina
Pop.: 4.8 m
White = 64%
Black = 28%
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking

23. Pro

24. le: South Carolina
Population: 4.8 m
White = 64%
Black = 28%
Prison Pop.: 21.9 k
White = 34%
Black = 64%
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking

25. Measures: Overview
Prison Sentence Decision
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking

26. Measures: Overview
Prison Sentence Decision
Case Characteristics
Oense Seriousness (1-5)
Commitment Score (1-12)
Type of Crime (Violent, Drug, Property, Other)
Guilty at Trial (v. Plea)
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking

27. Measures: Overview
Prison Sentence Decision
Case Characteristics
Oense Seriousness (1-5)
Commitment Score (1-12)
Type of Crime (Violent, Drug, Property, Other)
Guilty at Trial (v. Plea)
Offender Characteristics
Criminal History (1-5)
Gender (Male v. Female)
Age (15-81 yrs. old)
Race (Black v. White)
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking

28. Measures: Outcome Variable
Prison Sentence Decision
(2-stage)
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking

29. Measures: Outcome Variable
Prison Sentence Decision
(2-stage)
Binary Decision to Incarcerate
(Yes /No)
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking

30. Measures: Outcome Variable
Prison Sentence Decision
(2-stage)
Binary Decision to Incarcerate
(Yes /No)
If yes (hurdle), expected
minimum prison sentence
(in months)
Range: 1 month to 360
months (30 years)
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking

31. Distribution of Prison Sentence DV

32. Measures: Key Independent Variable (Moderator #1)
Oense Seriousness - SC Classi

33. cation Scheme
1 Misdemeanors (15%)
Vandalism, Political Intimidation
2 Class F Felonies (46%)
Stalking, Illegal Conduct at Elections
3 Class E Felonies (20%)
Harm to a Child, Reckless Homicide
4 Class D Felonies (11%)
Burglary, Distribution of Meth
5 Class A, B, C, or Exempt Felonies (8%)
Murder, Kidnapping, Armed Robbery
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking

34. Measures: Key Independent Variable (Moderator #2)
Criminal History
(SC Sentencing Commission)
1 None (37%)
2 Minimal (33%)
3 Moderate (17%)
4 Considerable (6%)
5 Extensive (7%)
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking

35. Analytic Strategy
Prison Sentence
Count in Months
Positive Integer (y 0)
Skewed Distribution
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking

36. Analytic Strategy
Prison Sentence
Count in Months
Positive Integer (y 0)
Skewed Distribution
Modeling Strategy
1 Linear Regression (OLS)
2 Event Count Models
Poisson
Negative Binomial
3 Zero-In
ated `Hurdle'
Models
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking

37. HRM: Comparison of Event Count Models

38. Results: Average Marginal Eects of Predicted Sentence

39. Results: Average Marginal Eects of Pr(Prison)

40. Marginal Eect of Being Black on Pr(Prison)

41. Marginal Eect of Being Black on Pr(Prison)

42. Marginal Eect of Being Black on Sentence Length

43. Marginal Eect of Being Black on Sentence Length

44. Conclusion
Support for the `Liberation Hypothesis' (`When?' Question)
Black Oenders Are More Likely (than Whites) to Be
Incarcerated...
...at lower levels of Criminal History
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking

45. Conclusion
Support for the `Liberation Hypothesis' (`When?' Question)
Black Oenders Are More Likely (than Whites) to Be
Incarcerated...
...at lower levels of Criminal History
Black Oenders Receive Longer Prison Sentences (than
Whites)...
...at lower levels of Oense Seriousness
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking

46. Normative Implications
Bias Occurs When `No One Is Looking'
Black Minor Oenders More Likely (than Whites) to Be
Brought Into the Criminal Justice System
1 Loss of Civil Rights
2 Future Marred by Criminal Record (jobs, housing, etc.)
3 Destabilizes Family Unit
4 Voter Disenfranchisement
Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking

47. Questions?