1. Factors Associated with Direct
Marketing in the Northeastern U.S.
Amy Guptill, SUNY Brockport
David Larsen, Syracuse University
Erin Kelly, Syracuse University
Rick Welsh, Syracuse University
Presented at the Annual Meeting of the
Rural Sociological Society, August 2, 2014 in
New Orleans, LA
Thanks to Amelia Cain and Amanda Koenck for their invaluable
assistance
2. Direct Sales from Farms to Consumers
Increasing Nationally
• Direct market sales increased to over $1.3
billion in 2012, up from $404 million in 1992
(Census of Ag).
• Farmers markets nationwide have increased to
over 8,000 in 2013 from 1,700 in 1994.
• And CSAs are found on more than 12,000
farms nationwide (USDA/NAL).
3.
4. Research Findings:
Farm Level
• Direct market farms tend to use organic practices,
produce high-value crops, and use the internet as part
of their business plan (Detre et al 2011).
• Farms that employ direct marketing, on average, tend
to be smaller in size and sell high-value crops such as
fruits and vegetables (Monson et al, 2008; Lyson and
Guptill, 2004; Thomas and Howell, 2003).
• And farmers’ motivations for using direct marketing
include creating social connections with their
customers and community as well as to earn a living
(Ibid).
5. Research Findings:
Customer Characteristics
• Advanced levels of education- bachelor’s
degree or higher (Brown et al, 2006; Thilmany
et al, 2008; Stephenson and Lev, 2004).
• Desire for locally produced food of perceived
higher quality (Ibid).
• Live closer to urban areas than rural regions
(Ibid).
• Higher than average family income levels
(Ibid).
6. Research Findings:
County or Region
• Farms that employ direct marketing found in
metropolitan counties or close to metropolitan
counties (Monson et al, 2008; Lyson and Guptill,
2004; Thomas and Howell, 2003).
• Schnell (2007) found that CSA farms tended to be
associated with:
– metro counties;
– higher than average income counties; and,
– the Northeastern U.S.
7. Our Research:
Unpack Northeastern U.S. & Direct Sales
• NE has largest number of direct market farms.
• NE has the greatest dollar value of direct market
sales.
• NE states often lumped together when
considering direct marketing.
• How to operationalize direct marketing or sales?
• Shed light on county-level characteristics
associated with higher levels of direct marketing:
is direct marketing driven primarily or exclusively
by income?
8. Fixed Effects Regression Models: 2007 and 2012
Census of Ag data and 2010 Census
Percent direct farms Percent direct sales Direct sales per farm
Log Population Log Population Log Population
Median Income Median Income Median Income
Total Farms Total Farms Total Farms
County County County
9. Cross-county sales: how to account for
these?
1. Check for spatial autocorrelation.
a. None for direct sales per farm and percent direct
sales, but present for percent direct farms.
b. Ran separate model for latter (random intercept), but
gave comparable results.
2. Fixed effects model accounts for sales across
county lines in place in 2007 through 2012.
a. Cannot account for relationships across county lines
established after 2007.
3. Mapped the data
10. Fixed Effects Regression Results
Outcome Predictor Coefficient Standard Error P-value R-Squared
Direct Sales 1K
Log-
transformed
population 0.2110977 0.0691631 0.002 0.3091
Median income 0.2807115 0.0631931 <0.001
Total farms -0.329697 0.0571569 <0.001
% Direct Sales
Log-
transformed
population 0.2850818 0.0662932 <0.001 0.3417
Median income 0.3884691 0.0625186 <0.001
Total farms -0.1592284 0.0552028 <0.001
% Farms with
direct sales
Log-
transformed
population 0.107485 0.0705461 0.128 0.1865
Median income 0.2577298 0.0678261 <0.001
Total farms -0.3458478 0.0594415 <0.001
11.
12.
13.
14.
15. Scatter plot of median income and pct
direct sales
US. Median Household Income = $53,000.
16. Conclusions
• In general, higher income areas associated with higher
direct sales (per farm, pct sales, pct farms).
• But, to some degree, the relative impact of income versus
population as drivers of direct sales depend on definition of
direct sales or local foods.
• Also, more direct sales farms in lower income areas than
for other direct sales indicators.
• Seems clear that direct sales more than marketing to higher
income elites, though income the primary driver.
• For example, prior to popularity of farmers’ markets and
CSAs, rural residents sold meat, dairy (e.g., raw milk) and
plant products to each other. Still occurs with regularity.
17. Future Research
• Closer inspection of county characteristics in
regards to findings.
• Compare motivations for engaging in direct
marketing for farmers and consumers in higher
income and lower income areas.
• Measure effect of direct marketing in higher
income and lower income areas on farm income
or farm cash sales.
