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Polysilicon 2012-2016:
   Supply, Demand & Implications for the Global PV Industry


                       Webinar on February 9, 2012


Moderator:                                     Speaker:
Carolyn Campbell                               Brett Prior
Research Associate                             Senior Analyst
campbell@gtmresearch.com                       prior@gtmresearch.com
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                          2) View the report webpage, and purchase the report                button at the bottom of the page
http://www.greentechmedia.com/research/report/polysilicon-2012-2016

                             200+ Pages
                        120+ Company profiles
                 90+ Charts, Tables, and Illustrations
   Historical and forecast capacity, cost, and price from 2008-2016
2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production
     1. Polysilicon Overview                                             3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand            4. Polysilicon Economics
                                           Technologies




Why should you care about the cost of polysilicon?
Because lower poly prices and higher module efficiency will shave ~$0.20/W off the cost of a c-Si module in 2012 alone




                                                                                                       Numbers look too low?
                                                                                                       Here are the 3Q11 results:
                                     Forecasts included in the full report
                                                                                                       •    Trina
                                                                                                              •     $0.65/W non-silicon cost
                                                                                                              •     $0.37/W silicon cost
                                                                                                              •     $1.02/W total cost

                                                                                                       •    Best-in-class conversion
                                                                                                            costs by step
                                                                                                              •     Wafer      $0.17/W (GCL)
                                                                                                              •     Cell       $0.17/W (LDK)
                                                             Forecasts included                               •     Module     $0.28/W (CSI)
                                                              in the full report                              •     Non-Si     $0.62/W
2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production
  1. Polysilicon Overview                                             3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand   4. Polysilicon Economics
                                        Technologies




Solar PV manufacturing 101
2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production
   1. Polysilicon Overview                                             3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand   4. Polysilicon Economics
                                         Technologies




Polysilicon manufacturing 101
2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production
   1. Polysilicon Overview                                             3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand       4. Polysilicon Economics
                                         Technologies



Polysilicon industry is concentrated, could be considered a
“balanced oligopoly”


                                                                                                          •   HHI is measure of
                                                                                                              industry
                                                                                                              concentration on a
                                                                                                              scale of 0 to 10,000
                                                                                                              (10,000 is a
                                                                                                              monopoly)

                                                                                                          •   A market with an HHI
                                                                                                              less than 1,000 is
                                                                                                              regarded as
                                                                                                              competitive

                                                                                                          •   Poly industry is ~640
2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production
    1. Polysilicon Overview                                             3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand   4. Polysilicon Economics
                                          Technologies



Even with 22 GW of c-Si PV installed in 2011, there still remains significant
oversupply at all stages of the value chain
2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production
   1. Polysilicon Overview                                             3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand   4. Polysilicon Economics
                                         Technologies




China, the US, and Korea are the 3 largest producers of polysilicon
2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production
   1. Polysilicon Overview                                             3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand   4. Polysilicon Economics
                                         Technologies



Costs that vary by technology include energy (~13%), and depreciation &
interest (~48%)
2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production
   1. Polysilicon Overview                                             3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand   4. Polysilicon Economics
                                         Technologies




Energy use matters, and in this category FBR and UMG win
2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production
   1. Polysilicon Overview                                             3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand   4. Polysilicon Economics
                                         Technologies



But Capex (which determines Depreciation & Interest) is much more important
than energy use, and on this metric Siemens HC and UMG “take the cake”
2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production
   1. Polysilicon Overview                                             3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand   4. Polysilicon Economics
                                         Technologies




Lower purity poly sells at a 10-30% discount to higher purity poly
2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production
   1. Polysilicon Overview                                             3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand   4. Polysilicon Economics
                                         Technologies




Excluding Depreciation & Interest, FBR is the cost leader
2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production
   1. Polysilicon Overview                                             3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand   4. Polysilicon Economics
                                         Technologies



But, when depreciation & interest are included, Siemens HC is the lowest
cost option
2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production
   1. Polysilicon Overview                                             3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand   4. Polysilicon Economics
                                         Technologies




And on the most important metric, profit, Siemens HC again takes the gold
2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production
   1. Polysilicon Overview                                             3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand   4. Polysilicon Economics
                                         Technologies




Historically, capacity has remained close to total demand
2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production
   1. Polysilicon Overview                                             3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand   4. Polysilicon Economics
                                         Technologies



But in the last 4 years, capacity growth has outstripped demand growth, and
this imbalance may get worse before it gets better
2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production
   1. Polysilicon Overview                                             3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand   4. Polysilicon Economics
                                         Technologies




Profit margins are key to understanding where pricing is headed
2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production
   1. Polysilicon Overview                                             3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand   4. Polysilicon Economics
                                         Technologies



Spot prices are driven by cash costs, whereas contract prices have a
floor set by total costs
2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production
   1. Polysilicon Overview                                                                              3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand             4. Polysilicon Economics
                                                                          Technologies




Since 2009, cash costs for poly have been reduced from ~$40/kg to <$20/kg
                                                          Poly Cash Costs (excl depreciation, SG&A), 2009-present
                                               $80

                                               $70
    Poly Cash Cost, excl depreciation ($/kg)




                                               $60

                                               $50

                                               $40
                                                                                                                                           ReneSola, $36
                                               $30

                                               $20                                                                                 GCL, $18              LDK, $20
                                                                                                                                                 OCI, $18 Daqo, $18
                                               $10                                                                                                         REC FBR, $13


                                               $0
                                                     1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 2012
2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production
            1. Polysilicon Overview                                                         3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand        4. Polysilicon Economics
                                                              Technologies




Depreciation adds another $3-8/kg to manufacturing costs

                                        Poly Manufacturing Costs (incl depreciation, excl SG&A), 2009-present
                                 $120

                                 $100
 Poly Manufacturing Cost, incl
      depreciation ($/kg)




                                  $80

                                  $60

                                  $40
                                                                                                                                          LDK, $27
                                  $20                                                                                                     Daqo, $22
                                                                                                                               GCL, $21 REC FBR, $20

                                   $0
                                         1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 2012
2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production
   1. Polysilicon Overview                                                               3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand              4. Polysilicon Economics
                                                    Technologies




Poly ASPs collapsed in 4Q 2011, falling over 40% at REC

                                       Poly ASP by Manufacturer, 2010-present
                          $80

                          $70

                          $60                                                                                 REC, $57

                                                                                                               Daqo, $52                   42%
                          $50
        Poly ASP ($/kg)




                                                                                                                                           drop
                                                                                                               GCL, $44                    from 3Q
                          $40                                                                                                              to 4Q
                                                                                                                            REC, $35
                          $30

                          $20

                          $10

                          $0
                                1Q10    2Q10         3Q10         4Q10            1Q11       2Q11        3Q11         4Q11
2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production
    1. Polysilicon Overview                                                                         3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand              4. Polysilicon Economics
                                                               Technologies




EBITDA Margins have fallen from very attractive (50-70%) to toxic in just 4 quarters

                                            EBITDA Margin by Poly Manufacturer, 2008-present
                                      80%
                                                                                                           OCI, 70%
                                      70%
        EBITDA Margin, % of revenue




                                      60%

                                      50%                                                                                              REC, 51%

                                      40%                                                                                                 Wacker, 39%
                                                                                                                                          OCI, 34%
                                      30%                                                                                                 REC, 28%
                                      20%

                                      10%

                                      0%
                                            1Q08   3Q08         1Q09         3Q09            1Q10      3Q10         1Q11         3Q11
2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production
   1. Polysilicon Overview                                                                       3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand          4. Polysilicon Economics
                                                                   Technologies




Including the impact of depreciation, EBIT margins are now approaching 0%


                                                      EBIT Margin by Poly Manufacturer, 2008-present
                                               60%                                                               OCI, 57%


                                               50%
                   EBIT Margin, % of revenue




                                               40%
                                                                                                                                       REC, 34%
                                               30%                                                                                     Daqo, 29%


                                               20%


                                               10%
                                                                                                                                            OCI, 6%
                                                                                                                                            REC, 4%
                                               0%
                                                     1Q08      3Q08          1Q09         3Q09   1Q10        3Q10        1Q11       3Q11
2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production
   1. Polysilicon Overview                                             3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand   4. Polysilicon Economics
                                         Technologies




What is next for the polysilicon industry?

• Where is pricing headed?

• When will the plant closures allow the supply/demand gap to
  close?

• The feast is over - which companies are best positioned to survive
  this period of famine?
2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production
   1. Polysilicon Overview                                                3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand   4. Polysilicon Economics
                                         Technologies



Supply stack analysis can help to reveal the likely winners and losers, as well
as future pricing trends




                                                                   Cost estimates for every operational poly
                                                                        plant included in the full report
Q&A

Moderator:                       Speaker:
Carolyn Campbell                 Brett Prior
Research Associate               Senior Analyst
campbell@gtmresearch.com         prior@gtmresearch.com

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Gtm poly-webinar-feb-2012

  • 1. Polysilicon 2012-2016: Supply, Demand & Implications for the Global PV Industry Webinar on February 9, 2012 Moderator: Speaker: Carolyn Campbell Brett Prior Research Associate Senior Analyst campbell@gtmresearch.com prior@gtmresearch.com
  • 2. Webinar logistics • First, make sure the volume on your computer is turned up • Webinar will be archived and available within 24 hours, you will receive an email when it is available To enlarge the slides, please click on the circular green button in the Please enter your questions top right corner of at any point during the the slides sub- webinar by typing them in window this box, then clicking “Submit” By clicking on the green button (the Resource List), you can If you are still having problems hearing (or 1) Download a copy of the slides viewing) this webinar, click on the yellow “?” 2) View the report webpage, and purchase the report button at the bottom of the page
  • 3. http://www.greentechmedia.com/research/report/polysilicon-2012-2016 200+ Pages 120+ Company profiles 90+ Charts, Tables, and Illustrations Historical and forecast capacity, cost, and price from 2008-2016
  • 4. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics Technologies Why should you care about the cost of polysilicon? Because lower poly prices and higher module efficiency will shave ~$0.20/W off the cost of a c-Si module in 2012 alone Numbers look too low? Here are the 3Q11 results: Forecasts included in the full report • Trina • $0.65/W non-silicon cost • $0.37/W silicon cost • $1.02/W total cost • Best-in-class conversion costs by step • Wafer $0.17/W (GCL) • Cell $0.17/W (LDK) Forecasts included • Module $0.28/W (CSI) in the full report • Non-Si $0.62/W
  • 5. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics Technologies Solar PV manufacturing 101
  • 6. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics Technologies Polysilicon manufacturing 101
  • 7. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics Technologies Polysilicon industry is concentrated, could be considered a “balanced oligopoly” • HHI is measure of industry concentration on a scale of 0 to 10,000 (10,000 is a monopoly) • A market with an HHI less than 1,000 is regarded as competitive • Poly industry is ~640
  • 8. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics Technologies Even with 22 GW of c-Si PV installed in 2011, there still remains significant oversupply at all stages of the value chain
  • 9. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics Technologies China, the US, and Korea are the 3 largest producers of polysilicon
  • 10. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics Technologies Costs that vary by technology include energy (~13%), and depreciation & interest (~48%)
  • 11. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics Technologies Energy use matters, and in this category FBR and UMG win
  • 12. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics Technologies But Capex (which determines Depreciation & Interest) is much more important than energy use, and on this metric Siemens HC and UMG “take the cake”
  • 13. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics Technologies Lower purity poly sells at a 10-30% discount to higher purity poly
  • 14. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics Technologies Excluding Depreciation & Interest, FBR is the cost leader
  • 15. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics Technologies But, when depreciation & interest are included, Siemens HC is the lowest cost option
  • 16. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics Technologies And on the most important metric, profit, Siemens HC again takes the gold
  • 17. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics Technologies Historically, capacity has remained close to total demand
  • 18. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics Technologies But in the last 4 years, capacity growth has outstripped demand growth, and this imbalance may get worse before it gets better
  • 19. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics Technologies Profit margins are key to understanding where pricing is headed
  • 20. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics Technologies Spot prices are driven by cash costs, whereas contract prices have a floor set by total costs
  • 21. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics Technologies Since 2009, cash costs for poly have been reduced from ~$40/kg to <$20/kg Poly Cash Costs (excl depreciation, SG&A), 2009-present $80 $70 Poly Cash Cost, excl depreciation ($/kg) $60 $50 $40 ReneSola, $36 $30 $20 GCL, $18 LDK, $20 OCI, $18 Daqo, $18 $10 REC FBR, $13 $0 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 2012
  • 22. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics Technologies Depreciation adds another $3-8/kg to manufacturing costs Poly Manufacturing Costs (incl depreciation, excl SG&A), 2009-present $120 $100 Poly Manufacturing Cost, incl depreciation ($/kg) $80 $60 $40 LDK, $27 $20 Daqo, $22 GCL, $21 REC FBR, $20 $0 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 2012
  • 23. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics Technologies Poly ASPs collapsed in 4Q 2011, falling over 40% at REC Poly ASP by Manufacturer, 2010-present $80 $70 $60 REC, $57 Daqo, $52 42% $50 Poly ASP ($/kg) drop GCL, $44 from 3Q $40 to 4Q REC, $35 $30 $20 $10 $0 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
  • 24. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics Technologies EBITDA Margins have fallen from very attractive (50-70%) to toxic in just 4 quarters EBITDA Margin by Poly Manufacturer, 2008-present 80% OCI, 70% 70% EBITDA Margin, % of revenue 60% 50% REC, 51% 40% Wacker, 39% OCI, 34% 30% REC, 28% 20% 10% 0% 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11
  • 25. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics Technologies Including the impact of depreciation, EBIT margins are now approaching 0% EBIT Margin by Poly Manufacturer, 2008-present 60% OCI, 57% 50% EBIT Margin, % of revenue 40% REC, 34% 30% Daqo, 29% 20% 10% OCI, 6% REC, 4% 0% 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11
  • 26. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics Technologies What is next for the polysilicon industry? • Where is pricing headed? • When will the plant closures allow the supply/demand gap to close? • The feast is over - which companies are best positioned to survive this period of famine?
  • 27. 2. Comparison of Polysilicon Production 1. Polysilicon Overview 3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand 4. Polysilicon Economics Technologies Supply stack analysis can help to reveal the likely winners and losers, as well as future pricing trends Cost estimates for every operational poly plant included in the full report
  • 28. Q&A Moderator: Speaker: Carolyn Campbell Brett Prior Research Associate Senior Analyst campbell@gtmresearch.com prior@gtmresearch.com