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Semiconductor Outlook and Perspective
John Ciacchella
Deloitte Consulting LLP
November 13, 2019
GSA Asia Pacific Executive Forum
2Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
§ Introduction
§ Outlook
§ Crosswinds
§ Opportunities
§ Challenges
§ Takeaways
Agenda
3Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Intro – Deloitte Is The Largest Private Professional Services Firm
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited
Technology Finance Human Resources
Procurement
§ Sourcing / Procurement
(Direct & Indirect)
§ Category Management
§ Spend Analyses
§ Contract Performance
Management
§ Vendor Selection
§ Sourcing Advisory
Strategy
§ Enterprise & Portfolio Growth
§ Operating Model Strategy/Design
§ Operations Excellence
§ Business Innovation
§ Breakthrough Innovation
§ Therapeutic Area & Portfolio
Strategy
§ Product Launch Strategy &
Execution
§ Next Gen Market Access
§ Customer Transformation
Risk & Regulatory
§ Compliance & Quality
Management
§ Regulatory Analytics
§ Strategic Risk Assessment
§ Internal Audit
§ FCPA Consulting
§ Regulatory Reporting
§ Discovery & Forensics
§ Litigation & Dispute Consulting
§ IDMP
M&A
§ M&A Strategy
§ Transaction Readiness
§ Transaction Diligence & Execution
§ Closing & Separation
§ Closing & Integration Strategy
§ Post Close Transition
§ Integration & Transformation
§ Corporate Finance
Supply Chain
§ Supply Chain & Manufacturing
Operations Strategy & Design
§ S&OP Excellence
§ CMO Excellence
§ Supply Chain Technology
Integration
§ Product Lifecycle Management
§ Quality/Consent Decree Services
§ System Integration
§ CIO Advisory & IT Strategy
§ Architecture & Infrastructure
§ Big Data and Analytics
§ Information Management
§ Digital Transformation
§ Mobile Transformation
§ Application Management
§ Cloud Computing
§ Cyber Risk
§ Robotics Process Automation
§ Finance Strategy & Operations
§ Service Delivery Model
§ Business Partnering & Analytics
§ Performance Management
§ Business Valuation
§ Transfer Pricing
§ Corporate Restructuring
§ Operations & Treasury Advisory
§ Statements & Internal Control
§ Audit & Third Party Assurance
§ HR Advisory & Talent Management
§ Shared Services
§ HR Op Model
§ HR Technology Implementation
§ Learning Transformation
§ Workforce Analytics
§ Global Employer Services
§ Global Mobility
$46.2B in total revenue
750 offices globally
7 Deloitte University centers worldwide
Serve in 150 countries and territories
286,200 total headcount
$217M societal impact contribution
The above list of services is a representative sampling of Deloitte’s cross-business capabilities. Deloitte offers
many services, not all of which are available from every Deloitte member firm and not all of which are
permissible for audit clients under various professional and regulatory standards.
4Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Practice Overview
Intro - Deloitte’s Semiconductor Team
We pair pragmatic industry experience with leading edge thinking and technology
1. Sources: Gartner, Forrester, Kennedy, IDC
− Product and market strategy
− R&D Effectiveness and Productivity
− Supply Chain Transformation
− End-to-End Cost Reduction
− M&A Strategy and Execution
− Tech Implementation (e.g., ERP, PLM, MDM, Planning)
− Human Capital and Talent Development
− Technology solutions preconfigured for the industry (die
bank, performance binning, genealogy, yield, etc.)
Traditional
− Digital Supply Networks
− Cognitive Analytics and Embedded
Machine Learning
− Control Tower Alliances
− Industry 4.0
− Tech Stack/Architectures
− Robotic Process Automation
− End-to-End and Managed Analytics
− IoT/Emerging Tech Strategies/Labs
Digital
• Senior team of partners dedicated to the industry and supported by a team of
consultants in tech centers globally with semiconductor industry experience
• Full breadth of capabilities and services from strategy through implementation
• Technology solutions and alliances customized for the industry
Consulting Services
Rankings & Accolades1
in
GLOBAL M&A
CONSULTING
in
MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS
in
BUSINESS
TRANSFOR-
MATION
in GLOBAL
SUPPLY CHAIN
MANAGEMENT
CONSULTING
in
CHANGE
MANAGEMENT
in
STRATEGY
CONSULTING
in
PRICING &
PROFITABILIT
Y MGMT
Deloitte named the
global leader in
Business Operations
Consulting Services
based on ability to
execute and
completeness of vision
- Gartner
“…the best at
challenging corporate
culture, directly
improving clients'
performance, and
recommending
change that
produces results”
– IDC
“Deloitte has
much deeper
and broader
capabilities and
is the strongest
of the group in
the strategic end
of the market.”
– Kennedy
Vanguard
“Strong delivery and
execution capabilities
for very large and
complex deals.”
– Forrester Research
Representative Project and Team Experience
• 200+ resources with electronics value chain industry experience, 70+ with
semiconductor industry experience
• A global footprint with centers of excellence in Silicon Valley, Austin,
Boston, Seoul, Tokyo, Taipei, Singapore, Malaysia, India, Germany and
Israel
• Member of and
• Alliances and relationships with leading industry technology providers and
deep expertise and significant hands-on experience with their solutions
#1
5Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Outlook - Industry And End Market
Have we reached the bottom and is the industry poised for growth over the next 3 years?
6Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Outlook – Stock Market
Investor confidence has been growing steadily throughout the year
PHLX Semiconductor Sector (SOX)
7Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Outlook - Recent Capital Announcements
Share of capital spending by the top 5 (Samsung, Intel, TSMC, SK Hynix, and Micron) is at
an all time high
8Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
However, macro events will continue to shape growth and deployment of investment
Crosswinds - Geopolitical And Economic
Macro Events Implications Impact to
Semi
1 China US Trade War • Trade war already impacting investments and configuration of industry supply chains High
2 Central Banks • Government and company debt reaching historic levels and will impact GDP growth High
3 US Elections
• Candidates aside, growing shift away from free and global markets and to more
control
Medium
4 EU / Brexit • Will UK be the domino that starts the unravelling of the union? Low
5 Mid East Conflicts • Escalation and war can drag down global growth, which is already fragile Unknown
6 Nationalism • Shift from Global to Local for jobs, taxes and technology creators, Silk Road, etc. Medium
7 Climate Events • Growing pressure to reexamine policies, rules and taxes to encourage sustainability Low
8 Cyber Threats • As companies digitize their business, the exposure to risk and damage increases Medium
9 Other Unknowns • Downstream failures in technology based systems, Demographics, Wealth Gap, etc. Unknown
9Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Opportunity – “Silicon to Everything Data and Connected” Era
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020+
Si 2D Si 2B Si 2C Si 2E
Aerospace and
Defense
Enterprise Computing and
Communications
Consumers and
Cloud
Everything Data and
Connected
● Government
spend cadence
● Small volume,
high per unit cost
& price
● Mainframe -
Mission critical
processes and
applications
● Tens/Hundreds of
clients
● Aerospace &
Defense
Applications
● Enterprise capital spend
cadence
● Medium volume, medium per
unit cost & price
● Client Server – enterprise
transaction processes
● Analog to Digital
communications
● Interaction across platforms
was limited at best
● Hundreds/thousands of clients
● Enterprise applications
● Consumer spend
cadence
● High Volume,
lower per unit cost
& price
● Mobile devices –
broad access to
internet/eCommer
ce
● Millions of clients
● Consumer/Cloud
applications
● Mixed spend
cadence – data,
services, industries
● More volume
segmentation and
economics
● Enabling data and
service capabilities
from device to edge
to cloud
● Billions of clients
● Data driven “Future
of X” = Mobility,
Work, Govt., Etc.
Era
Demand
Generator
Demand
Characteristics
Social
Media
WWW
Mobile
phones
Smart
phones
WiFi
ARPANET
Open
Source
Cloud OpenStackTCP/IP
5G
AI/ML
Future
of X
The Si2E era is driving new data centric opportunities as it transforms markets and industries
Mainframe
10Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Higher
Lower
Lower Higher
Drones
Military
Vehicles
Smart
WeaponryTraining
Simulators
Areospace & Defense
Shoes
Headband
Wristband
Wearables
Glasses
Power Management
Appliances
Delivery
Home
Telematics
GPS
Mobility
Sensors
Space Monitoring
Construction
HVAC Monitoring
Sensors
Security
Monitoring
Machine to Machine
Manufacturing
3D Printing
Gaming Consoles
Entertainment
OTT Devices
ValueofDigitization
Volume of Data
Healthcare
MRI
Machines
Pacemakers
Precision
Instruments
Source: Deloitte analysis
Management Systems
Opportunity – Everything Connected And Data Is Transforming Whole Industries
These opportunities are massive, disruptive, spreading and crossing over
Preliminary
Video
11Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Challenges – How To Capture Value In The New Era of Everything Connected And Data
• Large disrupting “Future of X” markets will require deeper vertical and ecosystem expertise
• Shift to “as a service” and “pay for use” offer potential alternative monetization models
• Demographics and limited talent pools will increase value of soft assets and capabilities
• Design for experience and business value vs design for performance or cost alone
• New future markets will require increased hedging strategies, better agility and speed to secure
key lead customers and partners as they establish future market and ecosystem control points
• Technology proliferation, convergence and disruption will challenge existing established architectures,
methods and standards, presenting new opportunities for technology innovation
• Managing successful legacy businesses and markets while simultaneously pioneering new markets will
require operating models that are ambidextrous and cost effective
Semiconductor companies will need to innovate beyond product/process and rethink their
business model and how to play and position as the technology value chain evolves
12Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Takeaways
• Do we have the market/customer/ecosystem “sensors” needed and in the right place?
• What are the opportunities and risks to our Business Model?
• Position in the changing technology value chain and ecosystem
• Potential monetization models (beyond component and product)
• Necessary capabilities we need to add/reduce/transform
• Where do we need to change our Operating Model and how?
• Leveraging the disruption inside (cloud, “as a service”, collaborative platforms, etc.)
• Workforce of the future
• Collaboration/partnerships/alliances
Key questions to keep in mind for today’s summit and back home with your management teams
13Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Contact Info
John Ciacchella
Senior Partner
Deloitte Consulting
Silicon Valley/San Jose
jciacchella@deloitte.com
www.deloitte.com
Deloitte Semiconductor
John Ciacchella is a technology and transformation veteran with over 30 years of experience advising some of the leading global and emerging high
technology companies with shaping, transforming and growing their businesses worldwide. His career reflects a successful track record working side by
side with client executives to validate their strategies, optimize their business and operating models, and design their transformation programs and
roadmaps. He also actively assists in the execution of their operational, functional, technology and M&A initiatives supporting these programs. John
brings 7 years of engineering know-how and over 25 years of consulting experience from working with over 40 public and private technology, service and
industrial companies spanning technology processes, systems, software and services. He is currently a senior partner in Deloitte Consulting’s Technology,
Media and Telecom Industry practice serving the semiconductor segment. He also leads one of the firm’s premier global client account relationships.
Previously John led Deloitte’s Technology Industry Sector. He honed his expertise as an advisor and consultant to senior executives of Fortune 500
companies at A.T. Kearney, where he co-led and developed the firm’s Communication, Media and Technology Practice, growing it from a start-up industry
group to a multi-million dollar practice focused on providing strategic and operations expertise to a select portfolio of global technology clients. John
started his career at Fairchild Semiconductor where he spent 4 years as a process engineer and member of the research staff. He went on to join National
Semiconductor as a product manager for processors/controllers used for the US Navy and Air Force fighter program. He has also served on the board of
Joint Venture Silicon Valley, where he helped sponsor early development of the Silicon Valley Index and local workforce development initiative. John also
holds two patents in silicon on insulator process technology.

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GSA Asia Pacific Executive Summit 2019, Taipei, Taiwan

  • 1. Semiconductor Outlook and Perspective John Ciacchella Deloitte Consulting LLP November 13, 2019 GSA Asia Pacific Executive Forum
  • 2. 2Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. § Introduction § Outlook § Crosswinds § Opportunities § Challenges § Takeaways Agenda
  • 3. 3Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Intro – Deloitte Is The Largest Private Professional Services Firm Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited Technology Finance Human Resources Procurement § Sourcing / Procurement (Direct & Indirect) § Category Management § Spend Analyses § Contract Performance Management § Vendor Selection § Sourcing Advisory Strategy § Enterprise & Portfolio Growth § Operating Model Strategy/Design § Operations Excellence § Business Innovation § Breakthrough Innovation § Therapeutic Area & Portfolio Strategy § Product Launch Strategy & Execution § Next Gen Market Access § Customer Transformation Risk & Regulatory § Compliance & Quality Management § Regulatory Analytics § Strategic Risk Assessment § Internal Audit § FCPA Consulting § Regulatory Reporting § Discovery & Forensics § Litigation & Dispute Consulting § IDMP M&A § M&A Strategy § Transaction Readiness § Transaction Diligence & Execution § Closing & Separation § Closing & Integration Strategy § Post Close Transition § Integration & Transformation § Corporate Finance Supply Chain § Supply Chain & Manufacturing Operations Strategy & Design § S&OP Excellence § CMO Excellence § Supply Chain Technology Integration § Product Lifecycle Management § Quality/Consent Decree Services § System Integration § CIO Advisory & IT Strategy § Architecture & Infrastructure § Big Data and Analytics § Information Management § Digital Transformation § Mobile Transformation § Application Management § Cloud Computing § Cyber Risk § Robotics Process Automation § Finance Strategy & Operations § Service Delivery Model § Business Partnering & Analytics § Performance Management § Business Valuation § Transfer Pricing § Corporate Restructuring § Operations & Treasury Advisory § Statements & Internal Control § Audit & Third Party Assurance § HR Advisory & Talent Management § Shared Services § HR Op Model § HR Technology Implementation § Learning Transformation § Workforce Analytics § Global Employer Services § Global Mobility $46.2B in total revenue 750 offices globally 7 Deloitte University centers worldwide Serve in 150 countries and territories 286,200 total headcount $217M societal impact contribution The above list of services is a representative sampling of Deloitte’s cross-business capabilities. Deloitte offers many services, not all of which are available from every Deloitte member firm and not all of which are permissible for audit clients under various professional and regulatory standards.
  • 4. 4Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Practice Overview Intro - Deloitte’s Semiconductor Team We pair pragmatic industry experience with leading edge thinking and technology 1. Sources: Gartner, Forrester, Kennedy, IDC − Product and market strategy − R&D Effectiveness and Productivity − Supply Chain Transformation − End-to-End Cost Reduction − M&A Strategy and Execution − Tech Implementation (e.g., ERP, PLM, MDM, Planning) − Human Capital and Talent Development − Technology solutions preconfigured for the industry (die bank, performance binning, genealogy, yield, etc.) Traditional − Digital Supply Networks − Cognitive Analytics and Embedded Machine Learning − Control Tower Alliances − Industry 4.0 − Tech Stack/Architectures − Robotic Process Automation − End-to-End and Managed Analytics − IoT/Emerging Tech Strategies/Labs Digital • Senior team of partners dedicated to the industry and supported by a team of consultants in tech centers globally with semiconductor industry experience • Full breadth of capabilities and services from strategy through implementation • Technology solutions and alliances customized for the industry Consulting Services Rankings & Accolades1 in GLOBAL M&A CONSULTING in MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS in BUSINESS TRANSFOR- MATION in GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT CONSULTING in CHANGE MANAGEMENT in STRATEGY CONSULTING in PRICING & PROFITABILIT Y MGMT Deloitte named the global leader in Business Operations Consulting Services based on ability to execute and completeness of vision - Gartner “…the best at challenging corporate culture, directly improving clients' performance, and recommending change that produces results” – IDC “Deloitte has much deeper and broader capabilities and is the strongest of the group in the strategic end of the market.” – Kennedy Vanguard “Strong delivery and execution capabilities for very large and complex deals.” – Forrester Research Representative Project and Team Experience • 200+ resources with electronics value chain industry experience, 70+ with semiconductor industry experience • A global footprint with centers of excellence in Silicon Valley, Austin, Boston, Seoul, Tokyo, Taipei, Singapore, Malaysia, India, Germany and Israel • Member of and • Alliances and relationships with leading industry technology providers and deep expertise and significant hands-on experience with their solutions #1
  • 5. 5Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Outlook - Industry And End Market Have we reached the bottom and is the industry poised for growth over the next 3 years?
  • 6. 6Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Outlook – Stock Market Investor confidence has been growing steadily throughout the year PHLX Semiconductor Sector (SOX)
  • 7. 7Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Outlook - Recent Capital Announcements Share of capital spending by the top 5 (Samsung, Intel, TSMC, SK Hynix, and Micron) is at an all time high
  • 8. 8Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. However, macro events will continue to shape growth and deployment of investment Crosswinds - Geopolitical And Economic Macro Events Implications Impact to Semi 1 China US Trade War • Trade war already impacting investments and configuration of industry supply chains High 2 Central Banks • Government and company debt reaching historic levels and will impact GDP growth High 3 US Elections • Candidates aside, growing shift away from free and global markets and to more control Medium 4 EU / Brexit • Will UK be the domino that starts the unravelling of the union? Low 5 Mid East Conflicts • Escalation and war can drag down global growth, which is already fragile Unknown 6 Nationalism • Shift from Global to Local for jobs, taxes and technology creators, Silk Road, etc. Medium 7 Climate Events • Growing pressure to reexamine policies, rules and taxes to encourage sustainability Low 8 Cyber Threats • As companies digitize their business, the exposure to risk and damage increases Medium 9 Other Unknowns • Downstream failures in technology based systems, Demographics, Wealth Gap, etc. Unknown
  • 9. 9Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Opportunity – “Silicon to Everything Data and Connected” Era 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020+ Si 2D Si 2B Si 2C Si 2E Aerospace and Defense Enterprise Computing and Communications Consumers and Cloud Everything Data and Connected ● Government spend cadence ● Small volume, high per unit cost & price ● Mainframe - Mission critical processes and applications ● Tens/Hundreds of clients ● Aerospace & Defense Applications ● Enterprise capital spend cadence ● Medium volume, medium per unit cost & price ● Client Server – enterprise transaction processes ● Analog to Digital communications ● Interaction across platforms was limited at best ● Hundreds/thousands of clients ● Enterprise applications ● Consumer spend cadence ● High Volume, lower per unit cost & price ● Mobile devices – broad access to internet/eCommer ce ● Millions of clients ● Consumer/Cloud applications ● Mixed spend cadence – data, services, industries ● More volume segmentation and economics ● Enabling data and service capabilities from device to edge to cloud ● Billions of clients ● Data driven “Future of X” = Mobility, Work, Govt., Etc. Era Demand Generator Demand Characteristics Social Media WWW Mobile phones Smart phones WiFi ARPANET Open Source Cloud OpenStackTCP/IP 5G AI/ML Future of X The Si2E era is driving new data centric opportunities as it transforms markets and industries Mainframe
  • 10. 10Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Higher Lower Lower Higher Drones Military Vehicles Smart WeaponryTraining Simulators Areospace & Defense Shoes Headband Wristband Wearables Glasses Power Management Appliances Delivery Home Telematics GPS Mobility Sensors Space Monitoring Construction HVAC Monitoring Sensors Security Monitoring Machine to Machine Manufacturing 3D Printing Gaming Consoles Entertainment OTT Devices ValueofDigitization Volume of Data Healthcare MRI Machines Pacemakers Precision Instruments Source: Deloitte analysis Management Systems Opportunity – Everything Connected And Data Is Transforming Whole Industries These opportunities are massive, disruptive, spreading and crossing over Preliminary Video
  • 11. 11Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Challenges – How To Capture Value In The New Era of Everything Connected And Data • Large disrupting “Future of X” markets will require deeper vertical and ecosystem expertise • Shift to “as a service” and “pay for use” offer potential alternative monetization models • Demographics and limited talent pools will increase value of soft assets and capabilities • Design for experience and business value vs design for performance or cost alone • New future markets will require increased hedging strategies, better agility and speed to secure key lead customers and partners as they establish future market and ecosystem control points • Technology proliferation, convergence and disruption will challenge existing established architectures, methods and standards, presenting new opportunities for technology innovation • Managing successful legacy businesses and markets while simultaneously pioneering new markets will require operating models that are ambidextrous and cost effective Semiconductor companies will need to innovate beyond product/process and rethink their business model and how to play and position as the technology value chain evolves
  • 12. 12Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Takeaways • Do we have the market/customer/ecosystem “sensors” needed and in the right place? • What are the opportunities and risks to our Business Model? • Position in the changing technology value chain and ecosystem • Potential monetization models (beyond component and product) • Necessary capabilities we need to add/reduce/transform • Where do we need to change our Operating Model and how? • Leveraging the disruption inside (cloud, “as a service”, collaborative platforms, etc.) • Workforce of the future • Collaboration/partnerships/alliances Key questions to keep in mind for today’s summit and back home with your management teams
  • 13. 13Copyright © 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Contact Info John Ciacchella Senior Partner Deloitte Consulting Silicon Valley/San Jose jciacchella@deloitte.com www.deloitte.com Deloitte Semiconductor John Ciacchella is a technology and transformation veteran with over 30 years of experience advising some of the leading global and emerging high technology companies with shaping, transforming and growing their businesses worldwide. His career reflects a successful track record working side by side with client executives to validate their strategies, optimize their business and operating models, and design their transformation programs and roadmaps. He also actively assists in the execution of their operational, functional, technology and M&A initiatives supporting these programs. John brings 7 years of engineering know-how and over 25 years of consulting experience from working with over 40 public and private technology, service and industrial companies spanning technology processes, systems, software and services. He is currently a senior partner in Deloitte Consulting’s Technology, Media and Telecom Industry practice serving the semiconductor segment. He also leads one of the firm’s premier global client account relationships. Previously John led Deloitte’s Technology Industry Sector. He honed his expertise as an advisor and consultant to senior executives of Fortune 500 companies at A.T. Kearney, where he co-led and developed the firm’s Communication, Media and Technology Practice, growing it from a start-up industry group to a multi-million dollar practice focused on providing strategic and operations expertise to a select portfolio of global technology clients. John started his career at Fairchild Semiconductor where he spent 4 years as a process engineer and member of the research staff. He went on to join National Semiconductor as a product manager for processors/controllers used for the US Navy and Air Force fighter program. He has also served on the board of Joint Venture Silicon Valley, where he helped sponsor early development of the Silicon Valley Index and local workforce development initiative. John also holds two patents in silicon on insulator process technology.