9. Structure of Industry (cont’d)
– Barrick Gold Corp.
– Newmont Mining
– Kinross Gold Corp.
– Meridian Gold
– Agnico-Eagle Mines
– Glamis Gold
– Goldcorp Inc.
– Cambior Inc.
– Ivanhoe Mines
– Placer Dome
•Major companies (selected by assets)
10. Financial Structure
Cost Structure
– Exploration, research and development
– General operation costs
– Depreciation, depletion and amortization
– Interest expenses
– Write-down of assets
– Other
14. Risk Management Strategies
Use of derivatives on commodities
– Hedging on Gold
Use of derivatives or other financial
instruments on non-commodity items
– Not Hedging on Gold
– On fuel, interest rate and foreign exchange rate
15. FASB 133
Requires companies to recognize all derivatives
instruments as assets or liabilities in the financial
statements
Measured at fair market value
Classification of hedges:
– Fair Value Hedge
– Cash Flow Hedge
– Currency Hedge
– Non hedging derivatives
17. Corporate Profile
Entered Gold Mining Business in 1983
Has operations in the United States, Peru,
Tanzania, Chile, Argentina, Australia and
Canada
Proven and probable mineral reserves of
86.9 million ounces of gold
18. Hedging Philosophy
Creates stable, predictable returns regardless of
short-term market conditions.
De-linking Barrick's earnings from the volatility
in the spot gold market.
Creates additional cash reserves that can be used
to acquire new assets to accretive to earnings.
19. Hedge Position
Barrick hedges approximately 18% of its
gold reserves.
– 16.1 million ounces or 3 years of expected
future production
Between 1991 and 2002, Barrick's forward
sales program allowed the company to
generate additional revenue of $2.2 billion
20.
21. Risk Exposures
Gold and Silver Price Risk
Interest Rate Risk
Foreign Exchange Risk
Derivative Risk
a) Credit Risk
b) Market Liquidity Risk
c) Mark-to-Market Risk
24. Spot Deferred Contract
The spot deferred contract is a commitment by the
producer to deliver a fix amount of gold to the contract
counterparty at a time in the future at a fixed price.
The forward price of the contract is based on the spot
price on the date of the contract plus a premium
(contango).
The contango is the difference between the LIBOR less
the gold lease rate.
The difference between a spot deferred contract and a
simple forward contract is that the spot deferred contract
can be rolled over into a new contract on delivery date.
25. Spot Deferred Contract:
Features
The counterparties do not have unilateral and
discretionary ‘right to break’ provisions.
There are no credit downgrade provisions.
Barrick is not subject to any margin calls –
regardless of the price of gold.
Barrick has the right to accelerate the delivery of
gold at any time during the life of its contracts.
This flexibility is demonstrated by the terms that
allow Barrick to close out hedge contracts at any
time on two days notice.
26. Barrick’s trading agreement also specifies that the
counter parties can opt for early close out of their
contracts in the event of:
a material and lasting impact on Barrick’s ability
to deliver gold
the counterparties being unable to borrow gold to
facilitate the forward contracts
Barrick having a net worth of less than $2 billion
(currently 3.2 billion)
Barrick having a debt to net worth ratio of more
than 1.5-2.0:1 (currently 0.25:1)
Spot Deferred Contract:
Features
27. How It Works
Barrick
Bullion Bank
Central Bank
Barrick enters into the spot deferred contract with the Bullion
Bank.
33. Problems
Barrick faces huge opportunity losses should
gold prices increase
If gold lease rate rises above the Libor rate then
forward prices will be in backwardation
If Barrick’s counterparties are not able to borrow
gold to facilitate the contract Barrick can be
forced to deliver gold at an unfavourable price
35. Corporate Profile
Incorporated in 1921
Other than gold, also engages in the
production of and exploration for silver,
copper and zinc
Has operations in North America, Canada,
Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia,
Uzbekistan and Turkey
Owns 86.9 million equity ounces of gold
36. Creating Value with Every Ounce…
Growing reserves
Strengthening asset base
Increasing earnings per share
Paying higher dividends
Improving financial strength
37. Gold Sales
Gold sales are made at the average price
prevailing during the month, in which the
gold is delivered to the customer, plus a
"contango“
Revenue is recognized when the price is
determinable upon delivery with title
transferred to the customer
40. Commodity Price Risk
Metal prices fluctuate
– Due to demand, forward selling by producers,
central bank sales, purchases and lending,
investor sentiment, and global mine
production levels
Forward sales contracts with fixed and
floating gold lease rates
41. Foreign Exchange Risk
Subject to local currency exchange rates against
the US dollars
– A devaluation of local currency is neutral or beneficial,
and vice versa
Currency swap contracts
– To hedge the currency risk on repayment of US$-
denominated debt
Cross currency swap contracts
– To receive A$ and pay US$
– Designated as hedges of A$-denominated
42. Interest Rate Risk
Interest rate swap contracts
Against the interest rate risk exposure from
bonds, notes, debentures, and other debts
– A reduction in interest expense of $5.9 M
in 2002
43. Hedge Position
Currently working to eliminate the hedge
book inherited from the acquisition of
Normandy
– Hedging 80~95% of total reserves
About 10.3% of Newmont's proven and
probable reserves were subject to
derivative contracts
44. Fair Values of Instruments
Gold Commodity
Contracts
Ounces
(000)
Fair Value
(000)
Gold Forward Sales Contracts 3,332 (209,717)
Gold Put Option Contracts 1,544 (22,603)
Gold Convertible Put Options 1,459 (125,486)
Gold Sold Convertible
Put Options
240 (14,295)
Price-Capped Contracts 377 n/a
US$/Gold Swap Contracts 600 (87,200)
45. Fair Values of Instruments
Other Sales Contracts,
Commodity and Derivative
Instruments
Fair Value (000)
Cross Currency Swap Contracts (8,500)
Currency Swap Contracts (21,924)
Interest Rate Swap contracts 13,800
Fixed Rate Debt 1,075
47. Financial Highlights
In 2002:
At an average realized gold price of $313
per ounce
Sold 7.6 M ounces of gold
Revenue of 2,745 million
Net cash of 670.3 million
48. Financial Highlights
Cash Flow Hedges
– Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income (Loss) of
(54.6M)
– Gain (Loss) on Derivative Instruments of (39.8M)
Under Financial Statement
Interest Swaps
– Interest, Net of Capitalized Interest is recorded as an
expense of 129.6M
Foreign Currency Exchange Contracts
– Dividend, Interest, Foreign Currency Exchange and
Other Income of 39.8M
50. Corporate Profile
Formed in 1993
The 7th largest primary gold producer in the
world
Highly leveraged to changes in the price of gold
A strict non-hedger (approximately 3.5% of
reserves hedged falling to zero by early 2005)
Majority of production in North America
Highest beta to bullion responses in a rising gold
price environment
51. Operating Highlights
888,634 gold equivalent ounces
Total cash cost US$201 per ounce
Net Loss per share US$0.32
Cash flow provided from operating
activities US$0.53 per share
53. Commodity Price Risks
Financial instrument in use:
Spot deferred contracts
– 312,500 ounce @ $280
Fixed forward contracts
– Unknown
Written call options
– 150,000 ounces @ $326
– Recorded in the financial statements at each
measurement date.
54. Foreign Exchange Risk
Financial instrument in use:
Foreign exchange forward contracts
– Sell U.S. dollars and buy Canadian dollars
– CDN $25.8 million at an average exchange
rate of 1.5175
– Mature over a 12 month period
55. Interest Rate Risk
Financial instrument in use:
Interest rate swaps
– There are no interest rate hedging transactions
outstanding as at December 31, 2002.
– Probably due to lax monetary policy
56. Energy Price Risk
Financial instrument in use:
Crude oil forward purchase contracts
– As at December 31,2001
– Buy 28,500 barrels of crude oil forward at a
price of $20.83 per barrel.
– No hedging agreements in place
57. Fair Values of Instruments
In 2002:
$20.3 million recorded as loss on forward
contract
$0.8 million recorded as loss on foreign
currency contracts
58. Financial loss
Loss incurred from Interest and other
income
– $65.6 million
Share in loss of investee companies
– $12.9 million
Mark-to-market loss on call options
– $2.7 million (pg 88)
61. Recommendation: Newmont
To keep reducing its hedge book to zero
In-line with its non-hedging philosophy
Not creating paper gold and thus
fluctuating gold prices
62. Recommendation: Kinross
To remain as a non-hedging firm
Since Kinross is small in size, relative to
others, one way to attract investor is to
offer higher beta to bullion price
63. Empirical Studies on Hedging in
Gold Mining Industry
Investors value volatility when it comes to
gold mining stocks
The more a firm hedges gold price risk the
worse it is for their stock return
Gold mining firms that aggressively hedge
gold price are not maximizing shareholder
value
~~Matthew Callahan, “To hedge or not to hedge…from
the North American gold mining industry”