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Online Radio in Germany 2012
                        WebRadioMonitor 2012

    Commissioned by the Bavarian Regulatory Authority for
                         Commercial Broadcasting (BLM)
                                               July 2012


        Goldmedia GmbH Strategy Consulting
                                  Prof. Dr. Klaus Goldhammer
                                 Mathias Birkel | Christine Link
                    Oranienburger Str. 27 | 10117 Berlin-Mitte | Germany
                    Tel. +49 30-246 266-0 | Fax -66 | Info[at]Goldmedia.de
                       www.Goldmedia.com | www.Webradiomonitor.de
WebRadioMonitor 2012
Content

1.   Introduction
2.   The German online radio market
3.   Use and coverage of online radio
4.   Mobile usage
5.   Social media
6.   On-demand music streaming services
7.   Advertising and marketing
8.   Forecasts and trends
9.   Conclusion

                                          2
WebRadioMonitor 2012: Research objectives,
methodology and market definition
     Client and objectives                 Methodology                 Market definition
Client:                             Project period:                This study includes the
 For the fourth time, Goldmedia     April to July 2012             following online radio
                                                                    offerings




                                                                                                 Picture: ©Scott Frangos_Fotolia.com
  carried out a study on the        Primary data research
  usage of German online radio       through survey of all German    IP-based distribution
  for the Bavarian Regulatory        online radio providers           (via browser or music
  Authority for Commercial           (n=3,021 radio streams)          player)
  Broadcasting (BLM)                                                 Linear audio stream
                                    Response: 545 online radio
Objectives:                          stations                         with focus on music
 To give an overview of the                                          and/or information
                                    Survey period: May 21, 2012
  German online radio market         to July 18, 2012                Based in Germany and
 To quantify the online radio                                        provison of services via
                                    15 interviews with industry
  usage in Germany through                                            own website
                                     experts
  survey of all providers                                            Compliance with
                                    Secondary data through
 To show market developments                                         relevant law and
                                     online desk research
  and provide further market                                          regulations
  analysis and forecasts            Forecasts using „top-down“       (i.e. legal notice)
                                     and „bottom-up“ approach        Exclusion of
 To provide a classification of
                                    www.webradiomonitor.de           aggregators
  German online radio stations
  by genre and type of service                                        and podcasts

                                                                                                   3
WebRadioMonitor 2012
Content

1.   Introduction
2.   The German online radio market
3.   Use and coverage of online radio
4.   Mobile usage
5.   Social media
6.   On-demand music streaming services
7.   Advertising and marketing
8.   Forecasts and trends
9.   Conclusion


                                          4
Well-established value chain in the
German online radio market
                       Value chain: online radio stations in Germany 2012




    Licensing           Content         Aggregation        Distribution          Sales              Devices   User


    GEMA          UKW-            Online radio      Streaming           Radio            Smartphone
    GVL            Broadcasters     aggregators        Provider             marketers        Online radio
                   Online-Only     Webradio          Internet Service    Special           receiver
                    broadcast        Networks           Provider             marketers for    Computer
                    stations                                                 online radio
                   Personalised
                    services




Source: WebRadioMonitor 2012


                                                                                                                     5
Consolidation trend in the market – slight decline
to 3,021 German online radio stations 2012
                                           Number of online radio stations in Germany 2006 to 2012
                                  3.500                                                                              350%

                                                 Number of online radio stations                 3.064     3.021
                                  3.000                                                                              300%
                                                 Change compared to previous year      2.692
                                  2.500                                                                              250%




                                                                                                                            Change compared to previous year
                                                                207%
Number of online radio stations




                                  2.000                                     1.914                                    200%

                                                               1.600
                                  1.500                                                                              150%



                                  1.000                                                                              100%


                                          450      521                                 41%
                                   500                                                                               50%
                                                   16%                       20%                 14%
                                           0                                                                -1%
                                     0                                                                               0%
                                          2006      2007         2008        04/2009   04/2010   04/2011   04/2012

                                   -500                                                                              -50%

                   Source: WebRadioMonitor 2012

                                                                                                                                                               6
Market consolidation 2012: approx. 800 online radio
stations gone vs. 750 new market entries – still high churn
                               German online radio stations by type (04/2012)
            2.474
           = 82%                      = 13%
           of online                  of online radio         = 5%                            = 0,5%
           radio                      stations                of online radio                 of online radio
           stations                                           stations                        stations

                                          383
                                                                   148                               16
          Online Only                  Simulcast             FM brands                    User generated content
Source: WebRadioMonitor 2012

                                                                            The number of GEMA licenced
                               Key Facts                                   online radio stations (2009-2012)
 3,021 online radio stations (April 2012)                                           Number of online radio stations
                                                                                     Change compared to previous year
 More than 4/5 of online radio stations are online-only
 But: number of very small broadcast stations is declining           1.950                 1.788     1.697               350%
                                                                                 1.614
                                                                                                                 1.410    300%
 Particularly high churn in 2012: 800 discontinued online radio      1.450                                               250%
                                                                                                                          200%
  stations compared to just 750 new channels started                     950                                              150%
                                                                                            11%                           100%
                                                                                                      -5%        -17%
 2009-2011: Each year, approximately 650 discontinued stations          450                                              50%
                                                                                                                          0%
                                                                         -50                                              -50%
 The number of GEMA-licensed stations declined by 17%
                                                                                04/2009    04/2010   04/2011    04/2012

                                                                                                                          7
WebRadioMonitor 2012
Content

1.   Introduction
2.   The German online radio market
3.   Use and coverage of online radio
4.   Mobile usage
5.   Social media
6.   On-demand music streaming services
7.   Advertising and marketing
8.   Forecasts and trends
9.   Conclusion


                                          8
Online radio streams have been listened to for
an average of 119 minutes per stream in 2011
                                               Average listening time per stream 2011-2014 (in min.)                          Key facts

                                                300       Online only
                                                          Total                                                      On average, every stream
                                                          Simulcast/FM brands
                                                                                                    247               has been listened to for
                                                250
Average listening time per stream in minutes




                                                                                                                      119 minutes in 2011
                                                                                   213
                                                                                                    231              Increase of 40% to 167
                                                200                                                                   min. in 2012 (as of April)
                                                                        180
                                                                                   198
                                                                                                                     Increase to 231 minutes
                                                150                                                                   expected by 2014 – double
                                                          129         167                                             of what it was in 2011!
                                                          119                                                        Considerably longer liste-
                                                100
                                                                                                      103             ning time of online-only
                                                                                    82                                stations (ø 180 min. 2012)
                                                 50                      67
                                                                                                                     FM brands recorded an
                                                          41                                                          average use of 67 minutes
                                                                                Estimated
                                                   0                                                                  per stream (60% below
                                                        Apr 11        Apr 12     Apr 13           Apr 14              the market average)
                                                                                     Source: WebRadioMonitor 2012

                                                                                                                                                   9
The number of online radio users is expected
to grow significantly until 2014
                          Estimated average usage of online radio stations in
                                  Germany in hits per day 2011-2014



                                   33.054                                                                         33.625


                                                                             28.310

                          23.491                                    23.049                             23.544

                                                           18.259

                13.810                                                                        13.275
                                                  11.621
       10.162                                                                         9.986




                     Total                           Simulcast/FM brands                      Online Only

             April 2011              April 2012              April 2013 (Estimated)      April 2014 (Estimated)



Source: WebRadioMonitor 2012

                                                                                                                           10
Use of German online radio stations by geo-
graphy: 12.5 % of online usage from abroad
          Hits on German online radio streams by geography (04/2012)




Online Only                        87,5%                         12,5%




 Simulcast/F
                                   85,9%                        14,1%
  M brands




       Total                       87,4%                        12,6%



               0%     20%         40%         60%         80%          100%
                    Access from Germany          Access from abroad

                                                                Source: WebRadioMonitor 2012

                                                                                               11
Alternative distribution channels are gaining market
share: Especially mobile usage increasingly important
                         2011 to 2014: Distribution channels
                                                                                      Key Facts
                               of online radio stations
             100%
                                                                                Own website is the most
                 90%                                                             important channel for
                                                                                 online radio stations in
                 80%
                                                                                 the medium term
                                       56%      54%                               mobile usage becomes
                 70%           62%
                       69%                                                       increasingly important
Number of hits




                 60%                                                            At present, approx. 70%
                                                       offenes Internet (PC)
                                                        Web (PC)                 of “hits” via own website
                 50%                                                             (62% via desktop PC and
                                                        Aggregators
                                                       Aggregatoren (PC)         8% via mobile websites)
                 40%                            12%
                                       13%                                      The role of aggregators
                               13%                     Social Media (PC)
                                                        Social Media
                 30%                            7%                               to gather and structure
                       11%              7%
                                                                                 the online radio market
                               6%                       App (mobile)
                                                       App (mobil)
                 20%
                       5%              13%      15%                              remains hugely important
                               10%
                 10%   7%                               Web (mobile)
                                                       Browser (mobil)          Crucial for broadcast
                               8%       9%      9%                               stations: need to use all
                       7%
                 0%    1%      2%       2%      2%      other
                                                       sonstige Wege             available distribution
                                                                                 channels to generate
                       2011    2012    2013    2014                              sufficient coverage
Source: WebRadioMonitor 2012

                                                                                                             12
WebRadioMonitor 2012
Content

1.   Introduction
2.   The German online radio market
3.   Use and coverage of online radio
4.   Mobile usage
5.   Social media
6.   On-demand music streaming services
7.   Advertising and marketing
8.   Forecasts and trends
9.   Conclusion


                                          13
2012: 17% of all hits on online radio streams via mobile
devices – providers expect increase to 24% by 2014
            Share of mobile use (via App or mobile optimised websites)
                  compared to total usage per month in % (2012)

 35%                                                                     33%
                                                      28%                              Simulcast/
 30%                                                                                   FM brands
                                   24%                                   24%
 25%            21%
                                                      22%                              Total
 20%                             17%                  21%
                                                                         23%
 15%            13%                                                                    Online Only
                                   16%
 10%            12%
  5%
  0%
               2011               2012               2013               2014
                                                                               Source: WebRadioMonitor 2012

                                            Key Facts
 Mobile use is still the main driver of growth for online radio stations. However, mobile listening
  time usually shorter than listening time on stationary devices due to different pattern of use
 Additionally, the number of hits via mobile devices higher due to more frequent interruptions
  and subsequent re-loading of online radio streams (i.e. because of signal interruptions)
                                                                                                              14
Increasing market share of mobile channels: 80% of FM
radio stations offer mobile app or optimised website
                                    Share of online radio stations with
                                   mobile distribution channels 2010-2012

                                                     77,4% 79,2%
                                            72,2%



                                37,6%
         29,4% 31,4%                                                                  31,8%
                                                                          25,9% 28,8%




                       Total                    Simulcast/FM brands               Online Only

Source: WebRadioMonitor 2012,               2010           2011       2012
Increase compared to WebRadioMonitor 2010


                                                   Key Facts

 Nearly 4 of 5 FM online radio stations offer mobile applications or mobile optimised websites
 Substantially fewer online-only stations with mobile offering, however number is increasing, too
 According to the vast majority of providers, mobile distribution remains the key area of growth

                                                                                                     15
Mobile apps 2012: all operating systems and devices
are supported. Apple and Android are market leaders
   Operating systems supported by                 Share of online radio stations for
      online radio apps in 2012                 which app is available 2012 (by device)
  33%                                                   Apple                                 29%
           29%
                                                      Samsung                                27%
                                                          HTC                            24%
                    21%
                                                           LG                          22%
                                                Sony Ericsson                          21%
                                                        Nokia                          21%
                              9%                    Motorola                         20%
                                      5%
                                                 Blackberry /…                 13%
                                                         Palm           7%
                                     other
  Android Apple iOS Windows Symbian Sonstiges      Sonstiges      0,5%
                                                          Source: WebRadioMonitor 2012, image source: company logos

                                          Key Facts
 In 2012, for the first time there are more online radio apps available for Android
  (34%) than for iOS (30%) – declining market shares of Windows and Symbian
 About 30% of all German online radio stations offer apps for Apple devices, but
  Samsung smartphones are almost as popular (27%)
                                                                                                                  16
WebRadioMonitor 2012
Content

1.   Introduction
2.   The German online radio market
3.   Use and coverage of online radio
4.   Mobile usage
5.   Social media
6.   On-demand music streaming services
7.   Advertising and marketing
8.   Forecasts and trends
9.   Conclusion


                                          17
Online radio stations actively use social media.
84% use Facebook – 42 % on Twitter
             Social media presence of German online radio stations (04/2012)

    84%   86%
                                                Total              Simulcast/FM brands          Online Only
       72%


                               42%   43%
                                  32%
                                                                                22%        25%            24%
                                                             10%         12%                           10%        8%
                                                                    0%                4%

    Yes, on Facebook            Yes, on Twitter          Yes, on VZ-networks Yes, on social networks         No

             Fans/Follower of online
             radio stations (04/2012)                                                    Key Facts
  51.877                                                                Social media is widely used by 8 of 10 German
                 Total    Simulcast/FM brands      Online Only
                                                                         oline radio providers
                                                                        „Online only“ stations are leading the charge,
                  3.282                0                 0               90% are already using Facebook
8.823
        3.668                  2.491       2.491
                722      463                       951       951        Facebook clearly the most important network,
                                                                         followed by Twitter
  Facebook        Twitter       VZ-networks           Others
                                    Source: WebRadioMonitor 2012
                                                                                                                          18
WebRadioMonitor 2012
Content

1.   Introduction
2.   The German online radio market
3.   Use and coverage of online radio
4.   Mobile usage
5.   Social media
6.   On-demand music streaming services
7.   Advertising and marketing
8.   Forecasts and trends
9.   Conclusion


                                          19
36% fear potential competition from Spotify & others,
but majority is not afraid of music streaming services
    Competition from „On-demand“
                                                                             Key Facts
        music platforms 2012
„New music services such as Spotify or Rdio                 On-demand streaming services like Spotify
will negatively impact on the number of                      are seen as competitors of iTunes rather
online radio users.“                                         than of „traditional“ online radio stations
                                                            Therefore, according to experts and the
                                                             majority of surveyed providers, online radio
  36%       29%          37%                                 stations are not in danger of being pushed
              8%
                                                             out of the market by online streaming
   14%                    14%
                                     fully agree             services in the short/medium term
              21%
   22%                    23%                               Value of editorial content as well as „lazy“
                                     partly agree
                                                             users, who prefer listening to a pre-
                                     neutral
                                                             selection of songs rather than creating their
              42%
                                                             own playlists are unique features of online
   43%                    43%
                                     partly disagree         radio platforms and will secure competitive
                                                             advantage against on-demand streaming
             13%
                                     fully disagree          services
   16%                    16%
             17%
   5%                      3%                               Spotify is also used by some radio stations
   Total   Simulcast/… Online Only                           as supplementary service, „Spotify apps“
                            Source: WebRadioMonitor 2012
                                                             are offered by some radio stations
                                                                                                             20
WebRadioMonitor 2012
Content

1.   Introduction
2.   The German online radio market
3.   Use and coverage of online radio
4.   Mobile usage
5.   Social media
6.   On-demand music streaming services
7.   Advertising and marketing
8.   Forecasts and trends
9.   Conclusion


                                          21
Online radio stations overall loss-making: only 71%
cost recovery on average. FM brands nearly break-even
            Average cost recovery of online radio stations 2011 in %


                             0         20         40         60               80               100



                     Total                                               71


  Simulcast/FM brands                                                                            98


            Online Only                                                69

                                                                             Source: WebRadioMonitor 2012


                                      Key Facts
 On average, the cost incurred by online radio stations clearly exceed revenues
 The cost recovery rate of Online only stations is only 69% (~30% incur losses)
 FM brands are clearly stronger and almost break-even (98% cost recovery)
                                                          Source: WebRadioMonitor 2012, Picture: Goldmedia
Barely 50% of online radio stations user adverts.
However, 2 of 3 FM-brands successfully sell advertising
                   The share of online radio stations who sell airtime (04/2012)
                      Total                            FM brands                            Online only

              Yes                                                                          Yes
                                                                 Yes
              45%                                                                          43%
                                                                 64%




                                 No                           No                                          No
                                55%                          36%                                         57%




                                                                                                                           Source: WebRadioMonitor 2012
                       Key                                         Advertising pricing models used in
                                                                   the online radio market (04/2012)
 Cost-per-Impression (CPI) : Billing is carried out                     CPC                                   CPC
  on a basis of fixed price per 1.000 ad displays,                       19%                                   12%
  also called Cost per Mille (CPM)
                                                                                                                 CPA/CPX
 Cost-per-Action (CPA, CPX), incl. Cost-per-                                CPA/CPX                               7%
  Lead (CPL), Cost-per-Order (CPO)/Cost-per-Sale                               4%
  (CPS): Pricing model, where the advertiser pays      CPI/TKP                             CPI/TKP
  for each specified action, e.g. registration,         66%                                             Others
                                                                            Others          53%
  download, purchase                                                                                     28%
                                                                             11%
 Cost-per-Click (CPC)/Pay –per-Click: Advertiser
  pays a fixed price when the ad is clicked

                                                                                                                           23
WebRadioMonitor 2012
Content

1.   Introduction
2.   The German online radio market
3.   Use and coverage of online radio
4.   Mobile usage
5.   Social media
6.   On-demand music streaming services
7.   Advertising and marketing
8.   Forecasts and trends
9.   Conclusion


                                          24
Advertising revenues 2011: 14.1m Euros net.
Further increasing ad revenue expected
                                          Advertising revenues (net) of all German
                                                                                                             Key assumptions
                                              online radio stations until 2016
                                   45,0                                                    CAGR:      WebRadioMonitor 2011/2012,
                                                                                           10-15       estimated broadband develop-
                                   40,0                                         38.2m
                                                                                                       ment according to German
                                                                                                       Regulatory Authority (BNetzA),
                                                                                           22%
                                   35,0                                                                trend extrapolation and inter-
 Net advertising turnover in EUR




                                                                                        Best Case      views with industry experts
                                                                                        Szenario
                                   30,0                                                               37% growth compared to
                                                                         28.9m             15%         previous year‘s study
                                   25,0
                                                                                                      Increasing penetration of smart-
                                                                                        Trend
                                                                                                       phones and mobile use will drive
                                   20,0                                                 Szenario
                                                                                22.5m                  further growth in the market
                                                                                           10%        In the medium term, additional
                                   15,0
                                                                                                       growth generated by online radio
                                          14.1m                                         Worst Case
                                                                                                       use in cars
                                   10,0
                                                                                        Szenario
                                                                                                      Smart TVs may also play a role as
                                    5,0                                                                additional distribution channel
                                                                                                      Increasingly professionalised
                                    0,0                       Forecast                                 marketing, co-operations (e.g.
                                      2011     2012    2013    2014      2015       2016               online radio association) and use
Source: WebRadioMonitor 2012, CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate                                       of synergies (i.e. for FM brands)
                                                                                                                                           25
In international comparison, 31% of providers see the
German market in an internationally leading position
 The German online radio market in an
                                                                                                  Key Facts
    international comparison 2012
 „The German radio market is, in comparison to                           31% of online radio providers see
 other countries, highly developed“                                       the German market as highly
                                                                          developed compared to other
                                                                          international markets
  31%        4%           35%
              4%                                                         Only 4% of Simulcast/FM brands
   11%                     12%                                            believe that the German online
                                          fully agree
   20%
                                                                          radio market is highly developed
                           23%
             54%                          partly agree


                                          neutral
   46%


                                                                Picture: © robertosch #38762725
                           45%
                                          partly disagree
             25%

   15%                     13%            fully disagree
             17%
   8%                       6%
   Total   Simulcast/   Online Only
           FM brands
                                 Source: WebRadioMonitor 2012

                                                                                                              26
WebRadioMonitor 2012
Content

1.   Introduction
2.   The German online radio market
3.   Use and coverage of online radio
4.   Mobile usage
5.   Social media
6.   On-demand music streaming services
7.   Advertising and marketing
8.   Forecasts and trends
9.   Conclusion


                                          27
Webradiomonitor 2012
Executive Summary
Online radio     There are a total of 3,021 online radio stations in Germany (04/2012)
market in        82% of online radio statiosn are „only online“ (2011: 84%)
Germany
                 The number of very small radio stations is decreasing for the first time

Usage            On average , every stream is hit 13,810 times per day (2012)
                  (Simulcast/FM brands Ø 18,259, Online only stations Ø 13,275 hits)
                 Compared to 2011, the average number of hits increased by 34%
                 Patterns of use: Online only stations are used more often at night, FM
                  brands more similar to traditional radio stations (mostly in the morning)
                 Strong increase in listening time per stream: 167 min. (2011: 119 min)

Advertising /    45% of online radio stations sell advertisement (i.e. display ads, spots)
marketing        In 2011, the total net advertising revenues of German online radio
                  stations were EUR 14.1 million
                 Display advertising is still the most common form of advertising sold by
                  online radio stations, followed by spot ads, pre-roll ads and sponsoring
                 ¾ of all surveyed online radio providers expect continuing high growth
                 Majority of providers see lack of a „uniform online coverage currency“
                  as a major barrier to a further successful market development
                                                                                              28
Webradiomonitor 2012
Executive Summary
Mobile          One in six hits (17%) on online radio streams is via mobile – the market
                 share of mobile usage is expected to increase to 24% by 2014
                ¾ of people surveyed believe that mobile (apps and optimised websites)
                 will become the most important distribution channel in the future
                57% believe that mobile online radio could replace the traditional FM
                 radio in the long run due to its inherent advantages

Social media    84% of internet radio stations use Facebook, 42% are on Twitter
                2/3 (68%) of all online radio providers believe that a social media
                 strategy is crucial for their success
                Half of the online radio providers expect growing importance of social
                 media for their business: However, the overall share of online radio use
                 via social media platforms is only expected to increase from 6% to 7%

                Most providers do not feel threatened by on-demand music streaming
Other trends
                 services like Spotify, as they are no substitutes for online radio stations
                Provides have high hopes that an increasing number of online radio use
                 in cars will further push the online radio market in the medium term
                54% are satisdfied with the overall growth prospect in the market
                20% believe that „Pay-Radio“ will play a role in the online radio market
                                                                                               29
Thank You!




     Goldmedia GmbH Strategy Consulting
                           Prof. Dr. Klaus Goldhammer
                          Mathias Birkel | Christine Link
             Oranienburger Str. 27 | 10117 Berlin-Mitte | Germany
             Tel. +49 30-246 266-0 | Fax -66 | Info[at]Goldmedia.de
                www.Goldmedia.com | www.Webradiomonitor.de

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Web Radio Monitor 2012, study on online radio in Germany

  • 1. Online Radio in Germany 2012 WebRadioMonitor 2012 Commissioned by the Bavarian Regulatory Authority for Commercial Broadcasting (BLM) July 2012 Goldmedia GmbH Strategy Consulting Prof. Dr. Klaus Goldhammer Mathias Birkel | Christine Link Oranienburger Str. 27 | 10117 Berlin-Mitte | Germany Tel. +49 30-246 266-0 | Fax -66 | Info[at]Goldmedia.de www.Goldmedia.com | www.Webradiomonitor.de
  • 2. WebRadioMonitor 2012 Content 1. Introduction 2. The German online radio market 3. Use and coverage of online radio 4. Mobile usage 5. Social media 6. On-demand music streaming services 7. Advertising and marketing 8. Forecasts and trends 9. Conclusion 2
  • 3. WebRadioMonitor 2012: Research objectives, methodology and market definition Client and objectives Methodology Market definition Client:  Project period: This study includes the  For the fourth time, Goldmedia April to July 2012 following online radio offerings Picture: ©Scott Frangos_Fotolia.com carried out a study on the  Primary data research usage of German online radio through survey of all German  IP-based distribution for the Bavarian Regulatory online radio providers (via browser or music Authority for Commercial (n=3,021 radio streams) player) Broadcasting (BLM)  Linear audio stream  Response: 545 online radio Objectives: stations with focus on music  To give an overview of the and/or information  Survey period: May 21, 2012 German online radio market to July 18, 2012  Based in Germany and  To quantify the online radio provison of services via  15 interviews with industry usage in Germany through own website experts survey of all providers  Compliance with  Secondary data through  To show market developments relevant law and online desk research and provide further market regulations analysis and forecasts  Forecasts using „top-down“ (i.e. legal notice) and „bottom-up“ approach  Exclusion of  To provide a classification of  www.webradiomonitor.de aggregators German online radio stations by genre and type of service and podcasts 3
  • 4. WebRadioMonitor 2012 Content 1. Introduction 2. The German online radio market 3. Use and coverage of online radio 4. Mobile usage 5. Social media 6. On-demand music streaming services 7. Advertising and marketing 8. Forecasts and trends 9. Conclusion 4
  • 5. Well-established value chain in the German online radio market Value chain: online radio stations in Germany 2012 Licensing Content Aggregation Distribution Sales Devices User  GEMA  UKW-  Online radio  Streaming  Radio  Smartphone  GVL Broadcasters aggregators Provider marketers  Online radio  Online-Only  Webradio  Internet Service  Special receiver broadcast Networks Provider marketers for  Computer stations online radio  Personalised services Source: WebRadioMonitor 2012 5
  • 6. Consolidation trend in the market – slight decline to 3,021 German online radio stations 2012 Number of online radio stations in Germany 2006 to 2012 3.500 350% Number of online radio stations 3.064 3.021 3.000 300% Change compared to previous year 2.692 2.500 250% Change compared to previous year 207% Number of online radio stations 2.000 1.914 200% 1.600 1.500 150% 1.000 100% 450 521 41% 500 50% 16% 20% 14% 0 -1% 0 0% 2006 2007 2008 04/2009 04/2010 04/2011 04/2012 -500 -50% Source: WebRadioMonitor 2012 6
  • 7. Market consolidation 2012: approx. 800 online radio stations gone vs. 750 new market entries – still high churn German online radio stations by type (04/2012) 2.474 = 82% = 13% of online of online radio = 5% = 0,5% radio stations of online radio of online radio stations stations stations 383 148 16 Online Only Simulcast FM brands User generated content Source: WebRadioMonitor 2012 The number of GEMA licenced Key Facts online radio stations (2009-2012)  3,021 online radio stations (April 2012) Number of online radio stations Change compared to previous year  More than 4/5 of online radio stations are online-only  But: number of very small broadcast stations is declining 1.950 1.788 1.697 350% 1.614 1.410 300%  Particularly high churn in 2012: 800 discontinued online radio 1.450 250% 200% stations compared to just 750 new channels started 950 150% 11% 100% -5% -17%  2009-2011: Each year, approximately 650 discontinued stations 450 50% 0% -50 -50%  The number of GEMA-licensed stations declined by 17% 04/2009 04/2010 04/2011 04/2012 7
  • 8. WebRadioMonitor 2012 Content 1. Introduction 2. The German online radio market 3. Use and coverage of online radio 4. Mobile usage 5. Social media 6. On-demand music streaming services 7. Advertising and marketing 8. Forecasts and trends 9. Conclusion 8
  • 9. Online radio streams have been listened to for an average of 119 minutes per stream in 2011 Average listening time per stream 2011-2014 (in min.) Key facts 300 Online only Total  On average, every stream Simulcast/FM brands 247 has been listened to for 250 Average listening time per stream in minutes 119 minutes in 2011 213 231  Increase of 40% to 167 200 min. in 2012 (as of April) 180 198  Increase to 231 minutes 150 expected by 2014 – double 129 167 of what it was in 2011! 119  Considerably longer liste- 100 103 ning time of online-only 82 stations (ø 180 min. 2012) 50 67  FM brands recorded an 41 average use of 67 minutes Estimated 0 per stream (60% below Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 14 the market average) Source: WebRadioMonitor 2012 9
  • 10. The number of online radio users is expected to grow significantly until 2014 Estimated average usage of online radio stations in Germany in hits per day 2011-2014 33.054 33.625 28.310 23.491 23.049 23.544 18.259 13.810 13.275 11.621 10.162 9.986 Total Simulcast/FM brands Online Only April 2011 April 2012 April 2013 (Estimated) April 2014 (Estimated) Source: WebRadioMonitor 2012 10
  • 11. Use of German online radio stations by geo- graphy: 12.5 % of online usage from abroad Hits on German online radio streams by geography (04/2012) Online Only 87,5% 12,5% Simulcast/F 85,9% 14,1% M brands Total 87,4% 12,6% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Access from Germany Access from abroad Source: WebRadioMonitor 2012 11
  • 12. Alternative distribution channels are gaining market share: Especially mobile usage increasingly important 2011 to 2014: Distribution channels Key Facts of online radio stations 100%  Own website is the most 90% important channel for online radio stations in 80% the medium term 56% 54%  mobile usage becomes 70% 62% 69% increasingly important Number of hits 60%  At present, approx. 70% offenes Internet (PC) Web (PC) of “hits” via own website 50% (62% via desktop PC and Aggregators Aggregatoren (PC) 8% via mobile websites) 40% 12% 13%  The role of aggregators 13% Social Media (PC) Social Media 30% 7% to gather and structure 11% 7% the online radio market 6% App (mobile) App (mobil) 20% 5% 13% 15% remains hugely important 10% 10% 7% Web (mobile) Browser (mobil)  Crucial for broadcast 8% 9% 9% stations: need to use all 7% 0% 1% 2% 2% 2% other sonstige Wege available distribution channels to generate 2011 2012 2013 2014 sufficient coverage Source: WebRadioMonitor 2012 12
  • 13. WebRadioMonitor 2012 Content 1. Introduction 2. The German online radio market 3. Use and coverage of online radio 4. Mobile usage 5. Social media 6. On-demand music streaming services 7. Advertising and marketing 8. Forecasts and trends 9. Conclusion 13
  • 14. 2012: 17% of all hits on online radio streams via mobile devices – providers expect increase to 24% by 2014 Share of mobile use (via App or mobile optimised websites) compared to total usage per month in % (2012) 35% 33% 28% Simulcast/ 30% FM brands 24% 24% 25% 21% 22% Total 20% 17% 21% 23% 15% 13% Online Only 16% 10% 12% 5% 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: WebRadioMonitor 2012 Key Facts  Mobile use is still the main driver of growth for online radio stations. However, mobile listening time usually shorter than listening time on stationary devices due to different pattern of use  Additionally, the number of hits via mobile devices higher due to more frequent interruptions and subsequent re-loading of online radio streams (i.e. because of signal interruptions) 14
  • 15. Increasing market share of mobile channels: 80% of FM radio stations offer mobile app or optimised website Share of online radio stations with mobile distribution channels 2010-2012 77,4% 79,2% 72,2% 37,6% 29,4% 31,4% 31,8% 25,9% 28,8% Total Simulcast/FM brands Online Only Source: WebRadioMonitor 2012, 2010 2011 2012 Increase compared to WebRadioMonitor 2010 Key Facts  Nearly 4 of 5 FM online radio stations offer mobile applications or mobile optimised websites  Substantially fewer online-only stations with mobile offering, however number is increasing, too  According to the vast majority of providers, mobile distribution remains the key area of growth 15
  • 16. Mobile apps 2012: all operating systems and devices are supported. Apple and Android are market leaders Operating systems supported by Share of online radio stations for online radio apps in 2012 which app is available 2012 (by device) 33% Apple 29% 29% Samsung 27% HTC 24% 21% LG 22% Sony Ericsson 21% Nokia 21% 9% Motorola 20% 5% Blackberry /… 13% Palm 7% other Android Apple iOS Windows Symbian Sonstiges Sonstiges 0,5% Source: WebRadioMonitor 2012, image source: company logos Key Facts  In 2012, for the first time there are more online radio apps available for Android (34%) than for iOS (30%) – declining market shares of Windows and Symbian  About 30% of all German online radio stations offer apps for Apple devices, but Samsung smartphones are almost as popular (27%) 16
  • 17. WebRadioMonitor 2012 Content 1. Introduction 2. The German online radio market 3. Use and coverage of online radio 4. Mobile usage 5. Social media 6. On-demand music streaming services 7. Advertising and marketing 8. Forecasts and trends 9. Conclusion 17
  • 18. Online radio stations actively use social media. 84% use Facebook – 42 % on Twitter Social media presence of German online radio stations (04/2012) 84% 86% Total Simulcast/FM brands Online Only 72% 42% 43% 32% 22% 25% 24% 10% 12% 10% 8% 0% 4% Yes, on Facebook Yes, on Twitter Yes, on VZ-networks Yes, on social networks No Fans/Follower of online radio stations (04/2012) Key Facts 51.877  Social media is widely used by 8 of 10 German Total Simulcast/FM brands Online Only oline radio providers  „Online only“ stations are leading the charge, 3.282 0 0 90% are already using Facebook 8.823 3.668 2.491 2.491 722 463 951 951  Facebook clearly the most important network, followed by Twitter Facebook Twitter VZ-networks Others Source: WebRadioMonitor 2012 18
  • 19. WebRadioMonitor 2012 Content 1. Introduction 2. The German online radio market 3. Use and coverage of online radio 4. Mobile usage 5. Social media 6. On-demand music streaming services 7. Advertising and marketing 8. Forecasts and trends 9. Conclusion 19
  • 20. 36% fear potential competition from Spotify & others, but majority is not afraid of music streaming services Competition from „On-demand“ Key Facts music platforms 2012 „New music services such as Spotify or Rdio  On-demand streaming services like Spotify will negatively impact on the number of are seen as competitors of iTunes rather online radio users.“ than of „traditional“ online radio stations  Therefore, according to experts and the majority of surveyed providers, online radio 36% 29% 37% stations are not in danger of being pushed 8% out of the market by online streaming 14% 14% fully agree services in the short/medium term 21% 22% 23%  Value of editorial content as well as „lazy“ partly agree users, who prefer listening to a pre- neutral selection of songs rather than creating their 42% own playlists are unique features of online 43% 43% partly disagree radio platforms and will secure competitive advantage against on-demand streaming 13% fully disagree services 16% 16% 17% 5% 3%  Spotify is also used by some radio stations Total Simulcast/… Online Only as supplementary service, „Spotify apps“ Source: WebRadioMonitor 2012 are offered by some radio stations 20
  • 21. WebRadioMonitor 2012 Content 1. Introduction 2. The German online radio market 3. Use and coverage of online radio 4. Mobile usage 5. Social media 6. On-demand music streaming services 7. Advertising and marketing 8. Forecasts and trends 9. Conclusion 21
  • 22. Online radio stations overall loss-making: only 71% cost recovery on average. FM brands nearly break-even Average cost recovery of online radio stations 2011 in % 0 20 40 60 80 100 Total 71 Simulcast/FM brands 98 Online Only 69 Source: WebRadioMonitor 2012 Key Facts  On average, the cost incurred by online radio stations clearly exceed revenues  The cost recovery rate of Online only stations is only 69% (~30% incur losses)  FM brands are clearly stronger and almost break-even (98% cost recovery) Source: WebRadioMonitor 2012, Picture: Goldmedia
  • 23. Barely 50% of online radio stations user adverts. However, 2 of 3 FM-brands successfully sell advertising The share of online radio stations who sell airtime (04/2012) Total FM brands Online only Yes Yes Yes 45% 43% 64% No No No 55% 36% 57% Source: WebRadioMonitor 2012 Key Advertising pricing models used in the online radio market (04/2012)  Cost-per-Impression (CPI) : Billing is carried out CPC CPC on a basis of fixed price per 1.000 ad displays, 19% 12% also called Cost per Mille (CPM) CPA/CPX  Cost-per-Action (CPA, CPX), incl. Cost-per- CPA/CPX 7% Lead (CPL), Cost-per-Order (CPO)/Cost-per-Sale 4% (CPS): Pricing model, where the advertiser pays CPI/TKP CPI/TKP for each specified action, e.g. registration, 66% Others Others 53% download, purchase 28% 11%  Cost-per-Click (CPC)/Pay –per-Click: Advertiser pays a fixed price when the ad is clicked 23
  • 24. WebRadioMonitor 2012 Content 1. Introduction 2. The German online radio market 3. Use and coverage of online radio 4. Mobile usage 5. Social media 6. On-demand music streaming services 7. Advertising and marketing 8. Forecasts and trends 9. Conclusion 24
  • 25. Advertising revenues 2011: 14.1m Euros net. Further increasing ad revenue expected Advertising revenues (net) of all German Key assumptions online radio stations until 2016 45,0 CAGR:  WebRadioMonitor 2011/2012, 10-15 estimated broadband develop- 40,0 38.2m ment according to German Regulatory Authority (BNetzA), 22% 35,0 trend extrapolation and inter- Net advertising turnover in EUR Best Case views with industry experts Szenario 30,0  37% growth compared to 28.9m 15% previous year‘s study 25,0  Increasing penetration of smart- Trend phones and mobile use will drive 20,0 Szenario 22.5m further growth in the market 10%  In the medium term, additional 15,0 growth generated by online radio 14.1m Worst Case use in cars 10,0 Szenario  Smart TVs may also play a role as 5,0 additional distribution channel  Increasingly professionalised 0,0 Forecast marketing, co-operations (e.g. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 online radio association) and use Source: WebRadioMonitor 2012, CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate of synergies (i.e. for FM brands) 25
  • 26. In international comparison, 31% of providers see the German market in an internationally leading position The German online radio market in an Key Facts international comparison 2012 „The German radio market is, in comparison to  31% of online radio providers see other countries, highly developed“ the German market as highly developed compared to other international markets 31% 4% 35% 4%  Only 4% of Simulcast/FM brands 11% 12% believe that the German online fully agree 20% radio market is highly developed 23% 54% partly agree neutral 46% Picture: © robertosch #38762725 45% partly disagree 25% 15% 13% fully disagree 17% 8% 6% Total Simulcast/ Online Only FM brands Source: WebRadioMonitor 2012 26
  • 27. WebRadioMonitor 2012 Content 1. Introduction 2. The German online radio market 3. Use and coverage of online radio 4. Mobile usage 5. Social media 6. On-demand music streaming services 7. Advertising and marketing 8. Forecasts and trends 9. Conclusion 27
  • 28. Webradiomonitor 2012 Executive Summary Online radio  There are a total of 3,021 online radio stations in Germany (04/2012) market in  82% of online radio statiosn are „only online“ (2011: 84%) Germany  The number of very small radio stations is decreasing for the first time Usage  On average , every stream is hit 13,810 times per day (2012) (Simulcast/FM brands Ø 18,259, Online only stations Ø 13,275 hits)  Compared to 2011, the average number of hits increased by 34%  Patterns of use: Online only stations are used more often at night, FM brands more similar to traditional radio stations (mostly in the morning)  Strong increase in listening time per stream: 167 min. (2011: 119 min) Advertising /  45% of online radio stations sell advertisement (i.e. display ads, spots) marketing  In 2011, the total net advertising revenues of German online radio stations were EUR 14.1 million  Display advertising is still the most common form of advertising sold by online radio stations, followed by spot ads, pre-roll ads and sponsoring  ¾ of all surveyed online radio providers expect continuing high growth  Majority of providers see lack of a „uniform online coverage currency“ as a major barrier to a further successful market development 28
  • 29. Webradiomonitor 2012 Executive Summary Mobile  One in six hits (17%) on online radio streams is via mobile – the market share of mobile usage is expected to increase to 24% by 2014  ¾ of people surveyed believe that mobile (apps and optimised websites) will become the most important distribution channel in the future  57% believe that mobile online radio could replace the traditional FM radio in the long run due to its inherent advantages Social media  84% of internet radio stations use Facebook, 42% are on Twitter  2/3 (68%) of all online radio providers believe that a social media strategy is crucial for their success  Half of the online radio providers expect growing importance of social media for their business: However, the overall share of online radio use via social media platforms is only expected to increase from 6% to 7%  Most providers do not feel threatened by on-demand music streaming Other trends services like Spotify, as they are no substitutes for online radio stations  Provides have high hopes that an increasing number of online radio use in cars will further push the online radio market in the medium term  54% are satisdfied with the overall growth prospect in the market  20% believe that „Pay-Radio“ will play a role in the online radio market 29
  • 30. Thank You! Goldmedia GmbH Strategy Consulting Prof. Dr. Klaus Goldhammer Mathias Birkel | Christine Link Oranienburger Str. 27 | 10117 Berlin-Mitte | Germany Tel. +49 30-246 266-0 | Fax -66 | Info[at]Goldmedia.de www.Goldmedia.com | www.Webradiomonitor.de