Gold Investment Symposium 2012 - Tony Locantro - Locantros Life
1. Tony Locantro
Author
Locantro’s Life – speculative investment newsletter
2. Forward Looking Statements
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Disclosure of Interest
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3. About Tony Locantro
Managing Director of :
◦ Locantro Capital Pty Ltd, a corporate advisory service
◦ Locantro Asset Management Pty Ltd, fund manager to Locantro Speculative Investments Limited - an unlisted speculative fund.
◦ Gold Australia Pty Ltd, publisher of Locantro’s Life - a speculative investment newsletter
Developed an interest in the ASX during employment in the NSW and Qld Police Services
Ex-Associate Director at one of Australia’s largest full service stockbroking and financial services firm, Patersons Securities.
Had major roles in several successful IPOs (IGO and MML) and also assisted other companies with IPOs, capital raisings, corporate
advice and on-market support.
Author of The Green Room, The First Complete Guide to Speculating in the Australian Stock Market.
Keynote Speaker/presenter/panellist at industry events (Trading & Investing Seminars & Expo 2012, Gold Coast Resources Showcase,
Gold Symposium 2012).
Regular panellist on Sky Business News channel’s Your Money Your Call and guest panellist on Boardroom Radio. (Appearing Tuesday
October 23 with Julia Lee and David Hunt)
Quoted in investment publications and newspapers (The West Australian, The Australian, The Australian Financial Review, Resources
Roadhouse, Raremetal Blog, Goldseek, BRW Magazine).
4. Don’t make bets!
Gold would not get to $1,000 US before 2050 - Dec 2005
Ran on 28th March 2008!
5. Becoming a better speculator
1. Removing the stresses in your life
150
STRESS LEVELS
100 2011-2012
50 2010-2011
0
Nov Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Mirror in the shower when shaving
Same socks
Reverse sensors
Remove the wall of worry so I shaved my head
6. Becoming a better speculator
2. Get educated!
• The Winning Habits of Warren Buffet and George Soros, Mark Tier
• One Up On Wall Street, Peter Lynch
• Devil Take The Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation, Edward Chancellor
7. Becoming a better speculator
3. Buying odd numbers of shares
Instead of 10,000, 50,000, 100,000 shares
buy an odd number Eg. 19,879 or 68,332 etc.
Why? Because it helps when taking profits into strength.
Major issue as an advisor was clients not being able to
sell. Fear of a share price going higher and breaking a
neat parcel. Not a cure but I found it does help!
8. Becoming a better speculator
4. Subscribe to my newsletter, Locantro’s Life.
9. The Speculative Market
Very tough two years for those in the junior resource sector, gold
and silver juniors not immune. This was despite some positive
signs late 2011/early 2012.
Sell in May and go away? Some now replace May with February!
Juniors sold down below cash backing in June/July 2012 which
was ridiculous. Some of the most brutal selling I have seen since
entering the industry in 1998.
Little or no recognition of management, in-ground resource and
growth potential. Fundamentals replaced with a combination of
fear and stupidity!
10. The Big Issue (not the Magazine)
The selling in June/July 2012 came from a very low
base and for seasoned speculators many already
undervalued stocks managed to halve again and
then some. Unfortunately when the best buying
opportunities arise we are either short of cash,
courage or both!
Then all of a sudden…….
11. Things got really Sirius
Source: Yahoo Finance
12. FOMO
“Fear” transformed into the “Fear of missing out”
Sirius’s share price rocketed (5.7c to a recent high of $2.99)
With this came….
Near-ology (anyone fairly close to the discovery or not so close but
looking for the same thing). MAT, BUX, SFX, MEU (6.2c to 29c in South
Australia) and more recently BFE.
Fans, promoters and doubters. Heated discussion on the likes of
Hotcopper and broking offices. Clear victory for the fans.
Major impact on other exploration stories such as SBR and PEX who
reported high-grade hits.
Mini-exploration bubble underway and I would expect the next major
discovery to be pounced on. FOMO!
13. Observations
Daytrading frenzy has returned. Technical analysis now being applied to
the junior resource sector. One of the recent runners PEX was described
as “the quietest stock on Hotcopper”.
Forums now buzzing with talk of stocks going to 20c, 50c, $1.00, $2.00,
$5.00 and so on. Not hearing of any going to 17.5c, 53.5c, $1.28 or $6.89!
Far too much expectation now being built into some stocks. Major
discoveries over the years are very rare (Prominent Hill, Tropicana,
Degrussa, Merlin, Carrapateena, Nova. I remember fondly when
Ramelius Resources (RMS) in May 2007 announced 48m @ 154 g/t gold.
Biggest intersection I have been involved in and the best month of my
career!
As lofty expectations are not met we will see traders lamenting losses and
moving on.
14. Fads
Fads aren’t a bad thing for us investors to get involved in, nor do they
lack fundamentals, but they often follow the same pattern:
• The sudden bombardment of scary, supply shrinking and demanding increasing
rhetoric being preached by newsletter types.
• A sudden staking surge of wannabe mining companies.
• An inflow of institutional money followed by a parabolic rise in stock prices… for
3 to 6 months.
• The fad becomes old news and the money dries up for the pretenders.
• The tried, tested and true mining plays (within the sector) still continue on – just
as they were many years before [the product sector hype].
• The pretenders move onto the next fad.
Source: Aaron Hoddinott
15. Fads
Much like boy bands, investment fads rise
quickly and are forgotten just as fast.
Only the true rock stars last……
in music and geology.
Source: Aaron Hoddinott
16. Northern Star (NST)
Much like boy bands, investment fads rise
quickly and are forgotten just as fast.
Only the true rock stars last……
in music and geology.
17. What I Look for in Gold Juniors
Management
Share structure & major shareholders (tell you a lot about the company).
Quality of projects and political risk. (not always a barrier as we saw with
West Africa).
Grade and size (low or high, big or small). Sometimes gold juniors grow
rapidly from humble beginnings. Some deposits can make massive profits
around 1 g/t!
Total production costs.
Enterprise Value (EV) market cap/ ounces in the ground. Some may have
low EV’s but the Buckley family of tree of getting it out of the ground!. Use
it as a guide only. Remember it is all about costs and profit at least until
the blow-off phase where hardly anyone will give a toss!
Growth potential
They say “Good shares are never cheap” It is all about backing the right
people, right projects at THE RIGHT PRICE!
18. Octagonal Resources (ORS)
Spin out from Alliance Resources (AGS) in January 2011 at 25c per share.
Victorian focussed emerging gold producer with an exploration focus in
Western Australia (gold-copper).
Own a fully refurbished gold processing facility at Maldon Vic (replacement
value of $15m).
JORC-compliant inferred Resources totalling 245,000oz of gold.
Re-processing Kangaroo Flat flotation concentrate tailings (total costs
estimated below $650 per ounce).
Ore processing agreement with A1 Gold Mine.
Have had ground issues accessing the Alliance South Deposit.
Permitting delays at Wehla (trial open pit).
Aim to become a 30,000oz pa producer, small start but what growth lies
ahead?
Market cap <$20m
19. Chesser Resources (CHZ)
Kestanelik Project NW Turkey.
Maiden inferred resource of 5.9 million tonnes at 2.4 g/t gold for 462,000
oz gold
70% of the resource is within 50 metres of surface.
The Resource is based on drilling on only 3.5 kilometres of the more than
22 kilometres of veins that have been identified at Kestanelik
Drilling is ongoing and positive results continue to extend gold
mineralisation on all the veins, both along strike and at depth.
Interesting board appointments, Morrice Cordiner (previously Andean
Resources 10-11c > $8.00) and more recently Robert Reynolds (Ex-Chairman
Avoca Resources/Alacer Gold).
What caught my attention was the similarities to Andean and the potential
for Kestanelik to grow significantly.
Mightn’t be at a rock bottom price (mkt cap >$60m) and some further
success may already be factored in but the result flow has been impressive.
20. Northern Mining (NMI)
The Greg Wilson factor. Greg was a key player in the exploration success of
Integra Mining (IGR) at Salt Creek and Majestic.
Share price has struggled, company has suffered due to a lack of cash.
Rights issue at 2c (underwritten to $1m) closed 17 October 2012.
Allotment of new shares expected on 25 October 2012.
Two exciting gold exploration projects, Snake Hill and Northern Zone Deeps.
Looking for major deposits!
Strategic landholding (East Kalgoorlie Project tenements). Surrounded by
Silver Lake Resources/Integra Ming, Southern Gold.
A small inferred resource of 22,850 ounces of gold at Georges Reward (Blair
North Prospect) where mineralisation is similar to Southern Gold’s (SAU)
Cannon Gold Resource of 896,000t at 3.3 g/t Au for 94,500 ounces.
Potential to develop into a very heavily traded gold junior on exploration
success.